Global inflation pressures are driving 10-year government bond yields to approximately 4.7%, the highest level since 2004, which is 0.5% above 2008 crisis levels and eight times higher than pandemic lows, forcing investors to demand higher yields for longer-term debt and creating capital reallocation pressures that impact equity markets, while central banks like the Federal Reserve face political tensions when managing interest rate policies amid these inflationary expectations.
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Inflation is officially out of control #economy #inflation #moneyAdded:
Global inflation continues to pressure bond markets. The surge in global bond markets continues to ramp up and mid inflationary pressures globally. 10-year government bond yields across the globe are roughly around 4.7% the highest since 2004. This is now roughly 0.5% above the 2008 crisis levels and roughly eight times above the pandemic low of 0.5%. Investors are demanding a high yield for holding longer-term government debt. That is also putting pressure on equity markets as that capital will need to reallocate somewhere else. President Trump has spent the last 12 months threatening to fire Jerome Powell, outgoing Fed governor, for not cutting interest rates quickly enough. Given the environment that we are seeing in bond yields and inflationary expectations, new governor Kevin Warsh is having to face the uncertainty of potentially hiking rates in the coming months and towards year-end. This is going to play in a massive role between the relationship between the Fed and the US administration as Trump did realistically put Kevin Warsh in there to start cutting interest rates. How this dynamic plays out over the coming quarters will be massive for equity markets and bond yields globally as well. Finally, we got UK inflation data coming out lower than expected due to some one-off factors in reporting last year and some base effects happening as well. CPI come out year-over-year at 2.8% versus 3% expected. Core CPI inflation come out at 2.5% versus 2.6% year-over-year expected. Again, major role factors and base effects were the reasoning for this drop. Considering the energy crisis we are in globally, we do expect people to look through this data point and look to May's data more intriguing.
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