This video demonstrates a comprehensive market analysis framework used by financial professionals, covering macroeconomic factors (US-Iran war, oil prices), technical analysis (support/resistance levels, moving averages), institutional flows, and sector-specific investment strategies. The analysis shows how investors evaluate earnings reports, assess credit quality in NBFCs, and identify growth themes like shipbuilding and power infrastructure. Key insights include the importance of monitoring volatility indices (India VIX), understanding institutional positioning through derivatives data, and recognizing when markets have priced in negative factors, creating potential buying opportunities.
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Bazaar: The Most Comprehensive Show On Stock Markets | Full Show | May 29, 2026 | CNBC TV18Añadido:
Every morning, the countdown begins for the markets with meticulous research and analysis designed to help you capitalize on the trading day. streaming live from the CNBC TV8 Motil studio.
Good morning. You're with us here on a fresh new edition of Bazar Morning Call.
We are coming to you live from the CNBC TV8 Motoral Studios. Uh I mean we're coming out of a market holiday, midweek market holiday. It's the last day and you go into another two-day weekend and it's looking a tad bit better as compared to where we left off Wednesday at 3:30. Uh I'm Prashant. With me my colleagues Nigel and Rema guys. Hi Money.
>> Hi good morning. So fresh headlines coming out of the US Iran war over the last 24 hours. 60-day truce fire, crew prices are down, but so is the gift nifty, right? The gift nifty is down over 100 points. So that's the puzzling bit.
>> Well, that's right. You know, I think it was a bit of a blessing that we were closed yesterday because I just tracked the Asian markets for a bit and some of them were deep in the red. So 100 point downtick. I think the bulls will take that. But uh we've got a day of trade and then we get into the weekend as Prashant said. Let's get straight to the action.
>> Well, yeah, absolutely. 93 on oil uh this morning. Uh so uh just sort of you know starting right from the top uh compared to where we were on uh you know Friday on Wednesday be pardon 94 on Wednesday afternoon uh and and uh you know prices had come off from when we started Wednesday morning to when we closed by 3:30 prices came off about 3 three and a half 4%. Uh and now we are down a little bit more so just under $93 a barrel. Uh now, US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson, by the way, lots happened over the last, you know, 24 hours when we were shut. Uh but this is the latest.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson speaking from the White House saying that we perhaps have the makings of a deal here. That's an exact quote. Uh going on to say that everything depends on what the president wants to do. Uh and President Trump is not going to make a bad deal. You know, he said more stuff, but I'm just picking out uh this for you. who he kind of sort of you know went on to say uh that if a deal is not made you know options of striking Iran exist still exist that the econ with the campaign of economic fury which is sanctions etc continue on Iran and is crippling the Iranian economy so there was a fair bit said so you could read it one way or the other this morning I mean I think uh markets as they have always done want to believe that uh they don't want to escalate whether this is going to lead to some sort of a framework deal which allows further talks is something we need to wait and watch more now as I said lots happened right I mean yesterday the relative calm we've been seeing we had seen actually with between actually military action between the ceasefire calm was broken so US and Iran now this week have exchanged fire twice uh and and you know on yesterday Iran launched ballistic ballistic missile at Kuwait which was intercepted that of course Iran says was was in response to US strikes and US says it was in response to Iran you sort of launching some drones and missiles etc. So I mean that tit for tat kind of action at least we saw twice over this week itself. So let's see whether both the two tracks which is the military action and at the same time these talks and you know these proposals being swapped between both countries and finding common ground ground continues or you know this is derailed. Let's hope it's it's it's the former. Now uh US equities they hit a new all-time high yesterday. Okay, S&P was up 0.6 and the Nasdaq was up about 0.9. That's last night's change. Dell jumped 30% in after hours trading on essentially what were blowout earnings. Again, this is the entire AI story uh so as to speak.
There's a fair bit of Indian specific single stock news flow which we'll get to in just a bit, but just want to tie up the levels. Nifty, the resistance is 24,300 and the support stands at about 23,800.
We of course were kind of flat by the time we left off on Friday on on Wednesday. Uh so we just pick up from their gift nifty gives you a quick sense of how we are starting and then we will uh take it up. So 120 lower on the gift nifty this morning. Nigel is walked across the wall with the data and the positioning. Nigel take it away.
>> Well let's start off with the flows first. You know in Wednesday's trading session the institutions you put the data together they were net buyers. The FI net cell number by the way it was uh the lowest one of the lows we've seen of late. So that's good. You know a smaller FI net sell number is heartening to see.
And in fact the trend has been quite good. We're wondering when they'll turn buyers but for the time being what we need to you know be happy about is that the net sell flows are actually coming down from around a lakh cr in March it came down to around 60,000 crores on and now we're at around 34,000 crores in March thank god for small mercies I think so the fi outflows are slowing down which is good news but in the foo markets well they're fairly cautious in terms of their stance because the added short positions both on index futures as well as on stock futures you know quite a few shorts were added particularly on index futures while on stock futures as well there were some shorts and they went ahead and they wrote more calls than puts a weebo but more than one lakh contracts on the call side were were written that's telling you that higher levels the bears want to come in there and fight and what are the contracts that they were writing 24,000 called close to 28 lakh shares getting added there premium at around 130 rupees 23,900 called as well 20 lakh shares getting added 180 rupees or thereabouts so just plugging in these numbers and looking at the recent high that we saw in May that 240 250 mark that becomes the first level of resistance on the downside that 50 DMA becomes important.
Remember we're closer to around the 20 DMA. So that's the mark on the the reference point on the downside. I think you know if we protect this level you'll still fancy your chances that this market actually wants to go ahead and test the resistance mark. One of the indices to track I think are the IT index. You know globally there's been a lot of news flow on the tech space itself and that's been one of those rank underperformers. So add around 29,000 odd you know uh riskreward could be favorable you as well and this could be one of the indices to watch for today.
So we'll keep an eye out on that one.
One positive is the last couple of trading sessions the nifty has been a little wibbly wobbly. In fact it ended mildly lower but the India VIX that's breached the 15 mark on the downside.
For me this is a significant trigger.
You know the India VIX cools off and stays below this 15 odd mark that's giving you a pulse of the market. The volatility index cooling off is very very good news. From a high of from 29 odd just a month and a half ago, it's come down to sub 15. Good news out there. But irrespective of what the headline index does, we're in a bit of a range out there. But take a look at the broader markets. Beautiful looking screen yet again on a day that the markets don't do much. That's the headline index doesn't do much. You still have your share of winners from the broader markets. And I think that's what's making portfolios feel very very good. April was a good mount. Mon number stocks advancing and declining and May as well has followed. suit. So stock specific action will continue.
>> Thank you. And I'm going to latch on to that nifty IT bid because Whipro ADR was up 18.5% overnight and Inforce's ADR was up 2.5%. But let's get back to the latest from the US Iran peace negotiations. US Treasury Secretary Besson said the president wants freedom of navigation in the straight. Listen in.
>> I think the president wanted to punctuate freedom of navigation in the street. the the teams have been going back and forth and President Trump has made it very clear. He talked about it at the cabinet meeting that he he has several red lines and Iran has to turn over their highly enriched uranium. They cannot pursue a nuclear weapon and the straight of Hermouth back to your question on energy has to free transit navigation of the seas has to be free and open as it was before. So he's not going to take a bad deal. is going to make a great deal for the American people.
>> Awaiting that great deal. Meanwhile, in a Fox News interview recorded earlier and set to air over the weekend, President Donald Trump said any agreement with Iran would deepen on securing a good deal. Depend. Sorry.
Listen in.
>> A deal that wasn't going to be good for us is the line ultimately because, you know, I'm playing it out and we're going to see. And that's what I do. I negotiate. They negotiate. They're very good negotiators. They're crafty. But uh in the end we have all the cards because we've defeated them militarily. Look, they have no navy. Every ship, they have 159 ships. Every one of them are at the bottom of the sea. Every single one. We take pictures of them. We have people going down taking pictures of hundreds of ships. Their navy is totally gone, 100%. Their air force is totally gone, 100%. their military. We sort of left it alone because we think that their military is somewhat u somewhat moderate.
>> Okay, let's get in Steven Englander, managing director, global head of G10 Forex research and North American macro strategy at Standard Chart Bank. Uh thank you very much for joining in.
Sharp decline in crude prices. There's a 60-day ceasefire. Uh do you think this is going to be the the final negotiation? Are we going to finally get a deal? What do you all believe based on the news flow that we've seen?
>> Well, you know, we've had so many of these indications before and uh nothing concrete's gone through. You know, what's clear is that the market uh seems to believe that something is going to go through. Um you know, we we have West Texas around 87, we have Brent around the low 90s. Um you know, it's a very good sign. It doesn't mean that they're convinced it's going through, but what it suggests is that they they certainly think that there's a high probability of some sort of deal uh being achieved, >> high probability of a deal being achieved. But how much of that do you think is in the market? Because in the last two months, the S&P has rallied nearly 20%, the NASDAQ has moved up 30% and overnight we did see yields etc cool off a tad bit.
Well, I I think what's interesting, you know, the the the war is is not the only thing in not the only game in town. And if anything in US markets is probably in third place that the um optimism on equities driven by um AI technology stocks, I think is probably independent.
And I I think the runup in bond yields because of the strength of the resilience of the economy um and and the the strong investment is independent. And I think the you know you see the balls the market just isn't that worried right now about the war. So I'd say that um there is significant tail risk if it turns out that this is a a head fake. But I'd say overall the the the market has kind of made its peace with the Middle East for now and they're actually focused or at least US markets are focused on other things. Um you know you look at Indian markets and where the rupee is trading I think you know it's still clear that there's room to go.
>> All right. Hi Stephen good morning good to see you Ben. Since you spoke about the rupee uh you know do you think the rupee is shot overshot itself on the downside at around 97 odd if you could give us uh a brief idea on the currency space out there. What about the dollar index? You that is still well behaved from an Indian market perspective. A weaker dollar normally is better for emerging market flows and we still hope that they return. So your take on that?
>> Well, you know, I'll talk about the the dollar overall because that's my my area of expertise. I you know I I think what's interesting is how resilient the dollar is despite the moves that we're seeing in um you know in oil prices. At the beginning of the war dollar went up when oil prices went up and dollar went down when oil prices went down. Uh now what you're sort of seeing is that the you know the market's keeping an eye on oil but that's not really the closest um trading driver. the market's paying attention to bond yields and and the fact that both real and nominal yields, the spreads are going up and favoring the dollar. And even though normally strong equities are dollar negative as kind of an indicator of risk appetite, I think that the um the fact that the this optimism is so concentrated in the US and in the tech sector is actually more dollar positive than than dollar negative because it's idiosyncratic to the US in large part.
>> Um Stephen, just one quick thing. uh have you looked at how much of what uh what's the what's the percentage of capeex which AI companies have announced in the US is coming through their own internal approvals and how much is via borrowing through bond markets?
>> Well, they're borrowing a lot through bond markets, but I I think that's by choice. I think that you know you know the there could flows are large enough I I think that they could finance a lot of it internally. I think it's it's a um finance decision. Um what's interesting is that profits when you look at earning season um this has been the case for three or four years now profits keep surprising on the upside. So you know everybody worries that this is a bubble and it's going to fall apart and yet when you see you know productivity growth so robust in the US and being matched independently because the profits numbers are from completely different sources it it tells you that this might actually be for real which would mean that yes there's a lot of capital investment and it's pushing up yields and raising uh borrowing demand but it could be justified by by the rates of return that these firms are going to experience.
Okay. Uh we'll leave it there. Thank you very much, Steven, for joining us. It's good speaking with you and uh thank you for being here with us today. We'll take a quick uh break. We'll come back with of course the top 10 list of stocks on the program. But let me just run you through the interactions which are lined up. So 8:35 we have the management of OneMe Technology. uh Ranir Singh is going to be joining us to just talk about their fourth quarter numbers. 9:00 we have Manoj Gori of Equity Securities to focus on the EMS sector. PJL plus earnings also of course came through. So we'll talk about both with Manoj. Amisha of Bofa Global Research is a market master of the day. 9:35 the marathon of physics vala will discuss their fourth quarter earnings. And towards the end of the program as oil prices dip, L speaks with Bank of America's global economist uh on whether funds will now start sort of, you know, coming into basically countries and markets which have been hit by high oil.
Okay, we'll take a quick commercial break. Our list of top stocks to watch out for with our research team in just a bit.
Welcome back. You're watching Buzzar Morning Call. It's a Friday morning.
It's time to talk stocks with our entire research team. This is CNBC TV 18 list of top stocks for the day. Hi guys, happy Friday. Sudes. Let me begin with you. Last day of the earning season.
Today we've only got I think Asian Paints and Interglobe Aviation in the Nifty pack but talk to us about Ashoken.
>> Good morning. So was confused with the what color exactly to be given for Sharon but finally I'm going with green on the back of two or three main reasons. First if you talk about the earnings earnings were largely in line to a slight beat and also the outlook that company has given for Q1 and Q2 is not looking that bad especially for domestic business. So first talk about the numbers. Revenue has increased by 19%. Abita has seen a surge of 15% and margin has come largely in line at 14.6% versus 15% in the same quarter but our expectation too was around 14.6%.
Now going forward for Q1 and Q2 company is expecting moderation in domestic business outlook but that moderation will not happen y that moderation will happen from the huge growth that industry saw in Q3 and Q4. In Q for the industry growth was in the range of 15 to 20%. From that level there can be some moderation. The bad part is export till 9 month FY26 export growth was 30%.
So there was an expectation that company will outperform its guidance of 20 to 25% but Q4 was extremely bad and company managed to report a growth of just 18.5% for FY26. So on the back of healthy earnings, on the back of healthy outlook for domestic business, I'm going with light green.
>> Thank you very much for that. Light green is the color. Upasna now joins in with PG Electroplast. Upas, >> well, the street was already anticipating a weak quarter this time around, but if I look at the numbers, they are weaker than what the street was estimating as well. Now overall revenue is largely in line, mostly on the lower end of it. Pat and Ebida is missed the street estimates. Now revenue has declined by 10% versus the estimates of a decline of a 7% and the key drag comes from the company's RAAC business which is nearly 86% of the company's product business. And if I talk about overall revenue, it forms nearly 70% of the total sales. Within product category, the key category RC as mentioned earlier has seen a decline of 12%, washing machine has seen an uptick of 70% and coolers have seen a downtick of nearly about 1% on yearon-year basis. Now company says that the overall disruption including LPG crisis and truck availability has led to a revenue loss of nearly about 420 cr in Q4. Abida margins are also under pressure down about 420 bits at 6.9% and this is mainly due to the cost inflation higher commodity prices and even negative operating leverage. If I talk about the gross margins also they have taken a downtick from 18.5% to 15.7% as the company was unable to pass on the price inflation.
Now coming to the PAT it's seen a down tick of 55% at 65 crores. Now overall if I talk about the fullear basis FY26 revenue stands at just about 9% and the company has missed its FY26 guidance of 17 to 19% growth. It has also missed its PAT guidance as the PAT is down at 32% versus the guidance of 3 to 7%. Now company held its corn call yesterday and company expects offseason demand in June to September 26 to remain relatively stronger as compared to historical trends if El Nino weather continues to intensify as forecast is well overall in terms of outlook it remains cautious for FI27 and expects the industry conditions to improve.
>> Thank you very much for that. Vinnie now joins in to tell us more about Seammens.
>> Hi morning. So for Seammens we are looking at the corn call highlights that have come in um what the company has highlighted they're not seeing a slowdown yet in public or private capex rupee depreciation and volatility in commodity prices yes that's surely coming in as an impact and maybe that could be a near-term challenge but other than that private capex that started seeing a pick up in the last few months as well key growth drivers for the company roads highways railways all of them have a strong pipeline data centers obviously leading the charts over there uh they've also won an OSAD plant order in Gujarat as for power distribution, facility management and automation. So that is also a positive for the company.
Now in their two different segments that's the digital industry segment and smart infra segment. Um short-term duration orders are what they focus mainly on and they do not have long-term contracts. So short-term duration means faster execution of orders is something that will continue. uh the company said that you know obviously in terms of electrification they are one of the strongest players there and they can manage that entire electricity setup for data centers. So currently 12 to 15% of their backlog mix is data centers smart um infra side of the power and utility side of the program as well they're seeing high growth especially in commercial building side. Uh apart from that steel and cement they highlighted that in the last couple of months that's seen a bit of a slowdown. This is for smart infraside. Uh government ordering in power util utilities as well as railways uh that is there but there is a slight bit of a slippage that that they have seen but that is not a structural slowdown. So again nothing to worry on that front. Apart from that they believe that export orders that is starting to see a pickup as well and over time they'll further see an increase coming in and import costs for the company have started going down and will reduce further as well. So we'll see some bit of a green again here for semens today.
>> All right. Uh thanks very much Vinnie for that. Well uh GMR airports is the next one and uh Vive has got details here. Vivik morning.
>> Well good morning. You know the biggest headline as far as GMR airports is concerned is that the company has turned profitable for FI26 and this is almost after a decade. Now this is despite the fact that there was significant turbulence as far as the aviation sector was concerned operation Hindu at the start of the year the west Asia conflict as well as airport capacity constraints that various airlines were facing. Now looking at the numbers of Q4 you know largely in line with what the street was anticipating. revenues high almost 36% EIA up 38% the calculated AITA margins at 38.3% and the profitability of 400 cr versus a loss seen last time around FI26 when you're looking at the numbers a profit of over 470 cr versus a loss of over 800 crores traffic growth was quite muted for FI26 at just around.9% now the key to watch out for will be the guidance that the management has shared exclusively with CNBC TV8 tax growth for FI27 organically is expected at 4 to 5% two new airports at Nagpur as well as Bogavaram is something that is expected to launch soon and what they say is that 9 month contribution will be seen from both of these airports. The other important thing to note is that H1 traffic growth is expected to be softer than H2 and the biggest takeaway as far as you know GMR airports is concerned is that come Q1 FI27 the company will be starting a third segment of business that will be the monetization of the various land assets that they own and that is something that the street will keep an eye out on.
Okay. All right. Thanks a lot for that.
Vive hopping across to Opasa. She's here to tell us about physics walla as well as Apar. Morning Aasa.
>> Good morning. First up, let me start with Apar industries. The company has reported a strong revenue growth this time around and it was mainly led by company's conductor segment which saw growth of nearly about 30% and cable division which saw a growth of about 35% on year basis. Now if I talk about the overall domestic mix, it stands uh at the revenue stands at 33% and exports also grew quite significantly double digit at 11.7% on year-on-year basis.
Now coming to the margins, the margin stands at 7.5% versus 8.3% and PAT is nearly flat at 253 crores. Now management has highlighted that H1 FY27 to remain subdued weighed by various factors such as Middle East related disruptions, elevated commodity cost and even labor constraints is what they have highlighted. Uh next up is physics walla. Overall the Q4 net loss has come down. It has narrowed down by 76%. The company's net losses have narrowed down from 289 cr to 69 cr. Now if I talk about the revenue growth this time around it stands at 51% on year-on-year basis and there is a 15% sequential decline. FY26 full year basis the revenue growth stands at 35% versus FY25 the company logged a growth of 48% and if I talk about FY24 it has seen one of the highest growth years of 1.6 times the revenue growth. The company has also approved investment of 120 cr in its wholly owned subsidiary that is Finy Finance as it expands further into its financial services segment. Now company in its corn call has highlighted and also guided for a 30% revenue growth for FI27 and has also given a 100% eida growth expected over FI26 levels. And lastly, in terms of online contribution, the company targets to increase from 50% currently to 55% over the next 3 years.
>> Okay, thanks Basa for that. Well, let's get in S. He is on the go today covering a lot of stocks. So, tell us about PB fintech and some other stocks in news.
So, starting with P Fintech, finally we understand from sources that block is launched in which Ashish Dian alok buns are likely to sell the stake and the stake being sold is of 0.8 8% equity.
The reason I'm going with red for P fintech is the flow price launched at a discount of almost 4% and it's 1,720 rupees per share and the stock too has been under pressure for the last few days. So I'm going with red. Next one is Bhat Dynamics. It was a completely hollow set of earnings that company has reported for Q4 especially if you talk about the profit part. It's dragged by the higher employee expenses and that is increased to 22% of total revenue versus just 8% in the same quarter last year.
even other expenses two or higher and it has increased to 29% versus 16% in the same quarter last year. So I'm going with red. Other two stock that will be in the focus. First one is Zidus live.
Two news. First news that company has increased the buyback price and earlier price was 1100 1150 rupees per share.
Now company has released increased to 1260 rupees per share and also its arm that is Zidus therapeutics received priority approval from US FDA for a new drug that is sugazar and that is used for PVC in adults. So I'm going with red for Zidus life. Next one is workhard that has received an important approval from Indian drug regulator and it has received the approval for Zionic and that is for the import and marketing. So that it has been long pending. Now this approval also can be taken very very positively. So green for Zidus work hard and red for bar dynamics.
>> All right. So thank you very much for that. Well uh that is a bunch of stocks and so doing the heavy lifting there uh this morning. Well just a quick recap of some of the top stocks that we've put out. So Ashok Cleland, Seammens, GMR airports, physics, VA, Apar industry, Zidus and Walcard are stuff are stocks with some positive and some green color there and PG Electroplas, Bharat Dynamics and PB Fintech are stocks on the other side. We'll take a break. We are back and we connect with the management of Kisht which is on EMI technology to discuss their fourth quarter numbers and outlook.
Welcome back. You're tuned in to Bazar Morning Call here on CNBC TV18 on EMI Technologies. That's the first management on the show. FI26 was uh the company's first full year as a listed entity as it got listed in uh you know in May. The AUM cross 7,000 crores for the first time with a 73% growth. To help us out with what's the way ahead we have with us Mr. Ranir Singh the chairman and chief executive officer at the company who joins us on the show. Hi Ranir, good morning. Thanks a lot for speaking us here on CNBC TV18. Well, I wanted some clarity with regard to the guidance that you're giving. You're talking about 40% AUM growth. despite tightening industry regulations. What's giving you this confidence of growing well without compromising on credit quality and give us some color as well?
This 40% will come how from existing and customers or you'll be going for new borrowers.
>> Absolutely. First of all, thank you for having me here. Uh yes, we have given a guidance of growth rate of 40%. If you look at the history of our company, there has been a there hasn't been a single year where the growth rate has been less than 60%. But that is also a testament to the proposition that we have built for our customers. Um despite uh you know in the environment where we need to be very cautious yet we are saying we can grow at 40%. It is primarily because of our large base of uh existing customer that we have. Um as we speak we serve close to around 11.76 million customers. So a large part of the growth is coming on the back of you know these uh customers continue to uh bank with us. They are very very high quality customers which gives the immense level of uh uh comfort on the way we see the risk playing out. Not only that as a measure to what is happening in the economy we have done some you know taken some measures to reduce our dispersement despite that our view is that we should be able to achieve 40% over and above what we have delivered in FI26 >> Ranir hi morning uh you know you have two segments right uh Prashant you have the personal loan segment you have lap uh so give us uh where you're seeing this growth coming in and you know, just a quick question and and you obviously have been in financial services uh you know a long long time and and you've grown the book to where it is now which is over 7,000 crores but growing the book you you can grow it very fast but I mean how to ensure that you know giving money is easy as they say but but you got to get it back so where where uh and we hear it all the time that maybe uh you know that that increment mentally even on on the retail side lenders are turning a little bit cautious. So just just give us a sense on that. First the split and second this question.
>> Oh absolutely Prashant let me first give you the split and also one of the most cardinal question which I think everybody is asking where this growth I mean in a market like this you need to exercise prudence why we are growing at this rate. Um first and foremost the large part of the growth um uh you know is coming on account of both our personal loan and lab book. Uh but it would be primary driven by our personal loan. The reason being 93 almost 93% of our business is personal loan today. The lab is still 7% 7.3 odd%. It is only going to grow at uh this is only going to grow at some rate. uh there is no way this is going to contribute to become contributing to become a significant share of the market. So the large part of the growth by definition by starting point will be a personal >> and in personal loans Ranir sorry sorry to interrupt a personal loans only about 45 48% is uh salaried right the rest is uh not non- salaried >> absolutely so the way I put this is it's a 50% salaried 50% self-employed uh given the huge expanse of Indian market if you want to be relevant to a larger customer base uh you have to get it to a large base of both salaried and self-employed so you're absolutely Right? 48% is salary, 52% is self-employed. But let me come to the most important question that you have asked right um you know we have grown at this rate the market is uh there is a degree of trepidation in the market. See I should say one thing whenever if you look at our performance everybody talks about growth everybody talks about profitability but one of the most salient factor perhaps is this growth has come on the back of we having a very strong asset quality. What used to be a 2.9% NPA when we started the uh year has come down to 2.12%.
Almost a 78 basis uh basis point drop in the NPA. The point I'm making is this is coming at the back of high quality credit that we have been able to bestow and let me say it has come at a cost.
When I say it has come at a cost, we have followed a strategy where we have intentionally reduced our margins. So if you look at my margins today compared to last year, it has come down. But it's a very conscious concerted deliberate strategy from our side to go after customers who are high quality and these customers come at a much better you know risk uh thing as against you know the ones where the rates may be higher. So uh >> sorry uh so just on that point about margins your borrowing costs are very high 14% plus uh so that's pretty high for a stable rated NBFC like yours are you looking at a rating upgrade any measures to bring down your cost of borrowing what's the number you're targeting for next year >> absolutely it is high but it is also high because uh we have recently been recently being means February 13th 2026 we have been rated as a minus by crystal and as you know in this market once you go from triple B to triple B+ there is you see some improvement but not so much but the moment you go from triple B plus to A minus you see quite a significant uh improvement in the uh in the cost of funds because the entire uh you know PSU banks and lot of uh listed entities uh and the sub of that opens up so this is going to come down we are already seeing a reduction of close to around 100 to 150 or 200 basis points in the fresh loans that we are doing but this number is also high because this has happened more recently and the past debt continues to come at a high cost of fund.
>> Got that? Uh and you also started the uh you know interview by saying that based on what we're seeing in the market right now you have moderated your dispersements which is why your AUM growth target is 40% for the coming year. Could you tell us a little bit more based on what you're seeing in the market? Is there stress? Is there stress coming in on the salaried class? Is it on the self-employed side? What exactly are you seeing right now and is it on account of the war high inflation what have you picked up >> first of all yes it is true we have reduced our dispersement to uh some extent and when I say some extent I'm comparing between January of this month versus uh the April uh it's a very very cautionary measure the reason it's a cautionary measure because as you know uh risk in India is extraordinarily heterogeneous so there is no one single factor but a combination of factor global supply chain having having after effect in Indian market behavioral subsegment sometimes neighborhood level stress all things are coming together it's very very difficult to pinpoint but let me tell you what we have done as a as a as a cautionary measure we have reduced our dispersion to the extent of around 7%.
uh yet we are growing because as you know our natural growth on a month-on-month level is a positive one.
Uh but more importantly we have also uh also paused dispersement in close to around 450 odd pin codes. Uh and uh these are pin codes where we see a potential you know risk building up in future. Very very cautionary measure. We will continue we do this. It's not a reactionary measure to what is happening in the economy, but the way our underwriting model works, it actually throws signals that there are these areas where we are already seeing a difference in the population distribution and some of the early indicators on risk. So, it's a response to that which is very very part and parcel of what we do literally every day. If it was not this crisis, it may be some other situation which had made us uh reduce some dispersement perhaps not to this extent but to some extent.
>> Okay. Uh Ranir, we wish you all the best. Thank you very much for joining us and uh you know we we'll of course continue to speak. Thank you for being here. I think just a quick word on the gift nifty take a quick look at where we are starting. So about 40 uh 20 minutes away from the pre-open session uh and we are down about a about 94 points 95 points uh or so but I think uh we have Amish Garval with us guys.
>> Uh we do have Amnish Aarval director of institutional research PL Capital now joining in on the show. Uh Amnish thank you very much for joining in. You want to quickly comment on what Kish had to say as a broader indication of what's happening in the NBFC side in terms of growth. Now they're a small company.
Their market capitalization is 7,000 cr.
So it's not a reflection necessarily of the entire economy but they are talking about pausing dispersements to 450 pin codes and bringing down their dispersement outlook by 7% compared to what it was in January. Is this something you've picked up about stress in the economy?
Uh hi see as of now the stress factors are not visible. However having said that we have seen now increase in the uh petrol and diesel prices by roughly around say 8 to 9° in in multiple transits.
Uh if you look at say past 6 months or so we are we are now witnessing rising inflation. We are witnessing crude prices moving up and when it results in higher prices of not only inputs but the petrol and diesel then these are having always a ripple effect on the economy because particularly diesel fuel oil these are kind of things when the prices go up you will feel the impact which is very deep down under. So if the oil prices stay where they are or even if they soften they are unlikely to go back to the earlier level. So in this kind of a scenario I believe there is every possibility that given the fact that we are having El Nino given the fact that inflation has bottomed out that there might be overall some slowdown in the credit growth in the coming quarters as of now are the signs visible the answer is no but yes there is a probability of some slowdown happening in the credit growth on the current levels >> do you look at BDL bh dynamics very disappointing set of numbers and the company says it's on account of some external vendors not giving them uh you know the required components which led to execution delays for the missiles astra missiles etc and I was looking at your competitor Motilal Oswal they've cut the FI27 FI28 earnings by a massive 2528% um and their target price stands at 1,150 which is based still on 42 times FI28PE because currently the stock is trading at about you know nearly 50 times when you look forward FI28 multiple. So pretty high multiples. Any view on BDL?
>> You see no specific view on BDL because we are not covering this name. But having said that for any investor who is looking at the different stocks two to three things we need to look at. First of all the business will remain lumpy.
There will be phases when the growth rates will be very high and there will be phases when the growth rates will be slow. Secondly, for all the electronic related or other defense equipment, a lot of these chips, components, etc., they they come from some of the markets uh where today due to a supply chain disruption, due to some raw material supply chains or the vendors being disrupted, there there could be you can say delays here and there and because of the two big wars which have been you can say going on going on in tandem there is a shortage of material and components.
So these kind of I would say the intermittent uh slowdown in the sales growth of many of the defense companies can't be ruled out. But yes in the longer term many of these defense companies their order books are full and given the fact that there's a need for indigenous uh you can say the uh development of many of these missiles or other uh other armaments the long-term growth will remain intact for many of these companies.
>> Got it. All right. Hi Anesh good to see you again. Um what about coal India? You know today retail audience get a chance to give it a crack with regard to that OFS. Uh what would your take be on the stock? It was at around 458 approximately the floor price was at around 412. I think the cut off price is 447 out. Uh so today retail audience gets a chance to subscribe. You would recommend them to go recommend them to go in.
You see the prices at which the stock is being offered are definitely on the attractive side if you take a slightly longer term viewpoint. That is one. The second is that the overall demand for coal in the economy that will go up and earlier the there was a feeling that there will be big time discouragement for setting up thermal power plants. But now today in the you can the change scenario globally there is even a thought process which is being given for coal gasification and even the fertilizer plants uh incrementally in future uh using more of the you can say coal which which is to quite a good extent being you can say mineduh in the domestic market. So that is something which is I think positive for cold India the current summer months where the demand will be very high because of the acute heat. So that is also positive but uh I think it is it is not at the bottom. The stock has done well over the last one year but yes uh given the fact that there's a reasonable level of discount at which it is available. So there is some uh definitely some room for the investors to make money in the stock.
>> So you're saying at this price you would recommend them go in and try in the offs right?
>> Yeah. Yeah. One can try.
>> Got it. Okay. Amish requesting you to stay with us for the time being. We'll go into a short break. Come back. We'll continue our track with Amnesh. We'll also get in our technical experts. Stay tuned.
Welcome back. Let's talk about stocks.
Haris now joins in with the big movers from Wednesday which saw heavy volumes, action, momentum, price. They had it all.
>> Morning, Rema. They did. And Z Entertainment was one such name. Had everything in during Wednesday's trading session. The stock was up around 9 to 10%. There's the biggest single day gain and volume since June of last year for the stock. It's gained four out of the last five trading sessions. But more on the volumes front, over 12 cr shares were traded on Wednesday for Z Entertainment. The 20-day average is just around a cr and a half. And you take a look at the delivery front, 14% of those shares were marked for delivery. So around about a cr and a half shares for delivery. The 20-day average is close to 50 lakh shares. And despite this move, the stock is still down around 40% from its 52- week highs of 150. Uh but the move on Wednesday ensured that it recovered all the losses that it has made in the month of May so far. Of course, at one point the stock traded around 400 450. The one name that's uh making uh headlines over the last couple of days has been Exide. The third straight day of gains on Wednesday, up 16% now in the last three sessions. The biggest single day gain that the stock saw since June of 2024 on Wednesday. And if you take a look at the volumes as well over the last five sessions, there has been a consistent increase in the volumes that Exite is seeing from around 11 lakh shares on the 21st. It ended Wednesday's session with volumes of around 2 and a half cr shares and those were the highest since August of 2025 well above the 20-day average which is close to around 40 lakh shares.
17% of those were marked for delivery.
So around about 40 lakh shares there and that too is almost 2 and a half times its 20-day average and from the March 30 low that the stock had made of around 287. The stock has recovered almost 40% from those levels. Another underperforming name that saw some sharp up moves on Wednesday was Swiggy and was the biggest single day gain in 3 months.
Volumes were the highest in nearly four months. Around 3 cr shares were traded that's around 3x its 20-day average. 40% of those for delivery. So just over a cr shares for delivery as well. 20-day average of around 40 odd lakh shares and from its issue price the stock is down already 30% and well from its post listing high which is well over 600 rupees the stock is down almost 60%.
>> Thank you very much for that. Happiest Minds also came out with their numbers and it's an okay set of numbers. For the full year, the company's clocked in a revenue growth of about 9 and a half%.
Uh and the company has reiterated their guidance of 12 1.5% for FI27 and 15% for next year. If you look at the Q4 numbers, it's about a.5% quarteronquarter revenue growth. Yearon year, it's 6.5%. Margins have contracted slightly, but as I said, uh the companies ended with 9.2% 2% for FI26 and guiding for 12 a.5% for FI27 and the aspirational guidance is 15% for FI28.
But globally what we are seeing on Wall Street is a comeback of the software names. Um while the performance of the Magnificent 7 sort of I mean they're trending higher but not at that explosive uh pace and interestingly we had Whipro ADR up nearly 18 and a half% yesterday. Uh Amnish um any view on IT stocks after the recent kind of underperformance do you see any sort of a correlation where software stocks like service now was high yesterday um when these companies do well do you see the rub off impact coming through on Indian IT companies also >> really as of now the uh your linkage of some of these AI related companies doing well in the developed markets and the Indian markets it it is not going in the same action because the growth rate of Indian companies under pressure that is one and secondly there's a lot of there could be lot of you can say uncertain period ahead till the time the business models they they adjust to the new new reality and where will the margins be how will the your P&L shape so the these are some of the factors in which there's an uncertaintity so do IT stocks based on the recent earnings do they offer value at the current uh current price given the kind of multiple they are trading at the answer could be yes but are they an absolute buy at the current price I think it it is you can say not a very easy answer to give because usually these kinds of realignments are uncertainities so they they could take quite a bit of time >> you know let's just put up a few names right uh and and maybe Amnish will have a view uh so let's just have these intraday up and this is all of course the pre-open has not started but so what you'll see is of course how these stocks traded on Friday on Wednesday. I keep saying Friday because I mean we coming out of a holiday but uh today's a Friday. Well, Hitachi, let's just pull put that name up. Uh big move, right?
And I think ended about 4% higher. It's been a big mover and of course another 4% on Wednesday. Cumins India was of course on the back of numbers, super strong numbers. Cummins India was up over 10% I think by close 11% there.
Look at CG Power which would come up again. I mean a big mover on Wednesday.
Look at G Venova that is CG. I mean the low was I think 500 something on uh this is in 2026 in March or early early April and from there is basically almost doubled. G Vonova is another one. Seaman's India we just I think we uh put that up earlier.
JSW Energy uh is another one and you know there's ABB uh there's Apar industries. So these are all you know the common thread through all of these of course is power and that's been one of the strongest themes globally and of course it shows up in a limited way here in India not in a limited way I the group of stocks of course is limited but it shows up in a strong way in a on these limited number of stocks that we have Amish I don't know across these names do you have exposure should one get exposure now how do you think about this >> pashand all these names of the segment has been doing well from uh I would say from the past few years and the reason for is the uh expectations that the global power demand will go up. Indian power demand will also go up and India as such is the demand for power is growing at at least two to two and a half times the global demand but now the incremental demand is coming from the new fits like your data centers AI and and all these all these new concepts. Uh so given the fact that many of these companies they are directly related to supplying equipment they are directly related to the development of the transmission networks many of them are into transformers many of them are doing I would say your HBDC lines for example company like Jawa and itachi. So the visibility of order book and growth in many of the companies it looks pretty strong over the next at least 2 to three years and that is why the stocks have been I would say moving up their order books are swelling and the outlook remains quite good on any particular stock you see many of these stocks today if I look at even say FI28 so many of these stocks will be trading anywhere between say at least 60 to 70 times two year forward earnings so in terms of be rerating the chances are less but till the time your order books continue growing the these stocks will will remain in some sort of a I would say market attention. So there is a probability that from these levels will you immediately make an absolute gains?
It it is very difficult to say but yes given the kind of outlook is there and if the orders books continue to remain strong the performance remains I would say pretty good over the next few quarters one will see them even going to higher levels. So one actually needs to you can say look at many of these stocks on minor corrections or else one needs to take a two to three year kind of a view in many of these stocks but all of them I would say the driver is the same and they are in the same bracket. Yeah, I mean there are no minor corrections in these stocks, right? That's the thing.
They only correct big time when there is fear and panic which grips, right? Look, liberation day I think Hitachi fell to whatever I think 10,000 or something. Uh that that was 2020 March 2025 and of course in February this Iran thing I mean we had large corrections but they all of course have come up uh very very strongly from there. I mean these are just two completely unrelated names but only the common factor that they are MNC's. Oracle Financial Services is one uh it's it's in the IT space but I guess different it's come off underperformed for a long time starting to come up a little bit and the other is Gillette which I think is in a similar kind of has found itself underperforming for a long time starting to appear a little stronger I don't know if you views on one or both you see actually I I don't have any firm view on both the names Oracle is more on the product product side but how the growth rates have been there. uh you see I won't be able to give you any clear clear you can say guess on that uh and the similar is the case with Gillette where I would say the company has has I think of late from the last maybe one or two quarter they they have started showing a little bit of growth uh which is higher than their you can say traditional numbers but Gillette historically also has been quite quite an expensive uh stock and uh if the stock has corrected maybe 20 30% from the peak and numbers look good and then usually the stocks will go up from these levels. So beyond that I think very difficult for me to give you any concrete look on both.
>> Got it. Thanks very much Amnesh. Uh no problem. Appreciate you joining us and running us through some of that commentary and views as well. We'll take a break. We're back. Manoj Gori of Aquarius Securities joins in. The focus is on the EMS space and PG Electroplast's fourth quarter numbers coming up.
Okay, welcome back. There's what a minute to go for the pre-open session to kick off. We'll have rates come up as soon as we get uh the first ones. Dollar rupee also will come up on your screen shortly. Shrihan Chan is with us. It's a Friday morning. So Shriant on Fridays and Sudep Sha is with us as well. Uh Sudep and Shrihan thanks very much both of you for joining in. Shriant you go first. What's your uh what's your sense?
I think the indicative open was slightly lower you know and this was true on on Wednesday as well. Oil kept falling through the trading session but the market did not really recover any in a significant way or anything. And I think this morning also uh the indicated start is lower. So what do you do?
>> Good morning Prashant. Good morning everyone. Uh so I think the way global macros have turned I am of the view that um despite GIF Nifty is indicating us that we may see lower opening. I am of the view that we may open maybe 50 60 points lower as compared to the current uh overall gift nifty's level. uh by looking at the important center point that is crude when when it is quoting below 93 levels that means something it is really which is going to come positive for the market that's my view again if we consider the technical levels of the market then 23,700 is acting as major support for the market since last almost 3 days so market is sustaining above the breakout levels 23,700 is is the next level to watch out for I think that should be the final stop-loss for holding any long position Today if there is any lower opening then we should look for adding some long positions with a stop loss close to 23,700 and again we can expect upward activity towards 24,000 24,100 sort of levels. Uh that's the overall >> okay got it Shriant you're sounding reasonably optimistic. Sudep what about you? You're in the same camp. We like to start off with 100 point downtick uh you know and for starters at least the rupee is shown some signs of stability yet again which is good. What would your trade be sad? Buy the dip.
>> Absolutely. First of all, good morning Nigel. Uh now you'll see I feel a lot of lot of negative things have already been discounted and the daily news flow regarding this war. Now now I I feel the markets are now trying to move beyond that and and that is the reason the best part is that the markets are trading in this range between 23 600 23 700 and 240 on the upside. So closer to lower end of the dip 23800 23 850 I I feel it it it is a decent buy 23700 will be my stop loss too because last Friday's closing was 23720 and I feel unless and until this levels are not breached on a closing basis today being a weekly close there would be a buy on dip sentiment and if you see bank nifty capital goods a lot of sectoral moves are coming towards positive momentum sentiment even today the IT news is positive uh regarding the vipro and that might have a rub off effect on IT index so I feel overall it could be a buy sentiment 23700 will be my stop loss >> 23700 would be your stop loss um gentlemen good morning thank you for joining in uh so Shrian what stocks would you go with >> yeah good morning so while uh looking at the broader market I think there we can get lot of opportunities to trade for because it is becoming extremely very difficult to trade in large cap companies. One day they are like following to market uh I mean to say broadly they are following to the overall volatility of the market and that's why it is very difficult to trade in large cap companies. But if we consider broader markets there we are seeing sustained trend and from that particular segment if we have to consider any specific stock idea then there we like APL Apollo which is forming some double bottom sort of formation close to 1850 1900 sort of level. uh again the stock can move towards the levels of 20205 that is the overall view based on its technical formation. So it's a buy at current levels with a stop loss close to 1830.
The other stock on which we are bullish is Tagar wagon. Uh there also we are seeing Vshape sort of rally in the market. Vshape sort of rally for the stock and currently the stock is above its important crucial resistance level of 840 845. So from here tagger wagon can move towards the levels of maybe 870 875. Uh we should look for creating long positions with a stop loss at 830 on the downside.
>> Okay. All right. Got that. Shan Sudep, what about you? What are the picks you have for us? Uh Nigel, two stocks, one from the power space and one from the metal space. Uh the one from the power space is CG power. Now CG power has given a strong breakout. uh on Wednesday and I feel here there could be a continuation pattern on the upside. Uh strong volume, strong breakout 910 will now be the stop loss and 975 could be the targets which could come in the coming week. Uh the second stock is from the metal space that is national aluminium nalco. We've seen aluminium prices globally going through the roof and strong traction over there. So the rough effect I feel will be on Nalco Hindelo and between both of them I feel the riskreward is better tilted towards Nalco. So trading above its 20-day exponential moving average and has broken its consolidation uh which was which it was in the last one and a half months. So from here on I feel 428 will act as a stop loss and the targets on the upside would be 453 and 460.
>> Okay. Thank you uh very much for joining in. Let's move on and talk about PG Electroplast. It was a weak set of numbers in Q4. Revenues were in line with estimates, but margins and profits came in below expectations and the company said that this was one of the toughest, most challenging years for the room air conditioning business. FI26.
They had started off the year with expectation of a double-digit revenue growth and that didn't play out. Manoji, associate director equities at Equirous Securities is now joining in. Manoj um morning thank you very much for joining in. Let's begin with PG Electroplast. A quick view. We have the numbers but where does it go from here and how does it compare with the others its peers?
>> Yeah, good morning everyone. Thank you for having me on the show. Yes. So if you look at Q4 definitely was a challenging quarter especially for the third party manufacturers. Even brands if you look at relatively the growth has been posted which is on a softer node even for the brands. And similarly if you look at the impact is likely to be higher for the third party manufacturers and accordingly that is clearly visible into numbers of both PG as well as Zumba. Now if you look at the encouraging part is that the positive commentary we are finally seeing from the brands as well as from the third party manufacturers. So if you look at today uh on on the call also PG highlighted that inventory as well as the brand inventories have normalized which was one of the concern area for last 8 to 9 months especially the range that we saw during one few of things. So things are turning favorable for the industry from the probably from the negative uh performance that we have seen during FI26.
Hi Manoj good to see you in and from the pack if things are turning around what's your preference >> if you look at probably today uh what we are seeing is strong growth in April which has continued the momentum in May we believe brands are likely to do better during the current uh quarter as well as for the rest of the year there might be some uncertainty on the margins given the RM and rupee volatility but if If you look at probably we believe like brands like blue star and LG they are relatively better placed to capitalize on the growth opportunities that's coming into this uh room category.
>> Okay. You want to give us stock names?
>> Blue star and LG is something we believe like should capitalize on this growth opportunities which we are witnessing currently.
>> Okay. All right. Blue blue star as well as LG. In fact LG after those numbers look quite weak that dip has got bought into. The other one you track I think is if industries if I remember correctly you know that one went through a period of underperformance but a couple of sessions ago it came out with a set of numbers in the street took it with both hands. Uh your view on that name?
>> See I think when you look at IFB uh company has been taking number of initiatives to improve on the margin side that has been one of the pain area for the company for number of years now.
Now if you look at in this quarter I believe like margins for IFB in the home appliance segment has always been under pressure. If you look at the improvement seems to be significantly or optically much higher but when you look at the margins itself are just at around 1.7% for home appliances. Now what we believe is that the major pain of the current RM cycle that we are likely to see will be in one cube. I think if they are able to manage that 1Q margins and probably are able to even show slight improvement in terms of the efforts that they have taken probably then ISFP remains one of the attractive opportunity but as of now it will be too early to say because the major headwinds based on the input cost will be more visible in one Q for IFP.
Uh sorry I missed it in case you did share uh in April and May what has been the pickup? So the companies we spoke to were all very hopeful that April and May and June is going to be much much better and they were looking at growth numbers.
I mean I'm going back to the room air conditioning bid but they were going back to numbers of say 15 20 very confident about that. Has that played out? What is the feedback now for Q1?
See at secondary level when you look at April after the second week things improved materially somewhere we believe like in the last 15 days there was a significant recovery in demand and April would have posted close to around 20% volume growth for the industry and this was largely driven from your west market and your south market. South market if you recall did not participate into any demand during the March month. Now coming into May, May I think keeping aside east markets, south has been a growth driver. West if you look at both Maharashtra as well as Dubra have been posting very strong growth rates. uh keeping aside Kerala if you look at Tamil Nadu AP Telangana Karnataka all have posted very strong results somewhere we believe MTD growth rate for the month of May around 5 to 40% in volume terms on Y basis >> uh yeah just run us through mano your coverage universe I mean what are the stocks you have under active coverage We cover almost the entire consumer durable space >> and we believe like at the current juncture room AC definitely seems to be attractively placed given that the underlying demand trends continues to remain very intact. It's obviously a lot dependent on the weather and that's the comforting part that the underlying demand trends continue to remain very intact. Second, we believe wires and cables is one uh category that has continued to perform very strong performance for last three and a half four years and we like names like polycap and rar kabal. So especially if you look at among the large cap names and among the small cap we continue to prefer Polykev and AR.
>> Always a pleasure hearing your thoughts Manoj. Thanks for stopping by early this morning. Wishing you a good remainder of the day and we look forward to your thoughts on the channel rather soon.
Well time to uh go across to Sudashan.
He's joining us to tell us about the brokerage call of the day. Sudashan.
So there are few brokerage downgrades for Simmons after the Q4 earnings and the call. So first one is Jeffre. It has downgraded the stock to hold but increases the target price to 4,000 from earlier target price of 3,800 rupees per share. It says Abit XLBM has missed estimates by 32% as margin has seen a sharp drop of more than 310 basis points and the concern basically it has highlighted is of rising commodity cost and currency depreciation that company has failed to pass through order inflow was up 33% but due to margin pressure it has cut EPS estimates by for FY 26 27 in the range of 23 to 24% and believes that there could be scope for downgrades if price hikes are insufficient. Next one is MCX. The stock has seen a huge run over the last few months. But now UBS has downgraded the stock mainly because of the valuation front and also it believes that peak earnings are now behind. It says peak earnings momentum is likely behind. Strong volume run rate is already priced in the stock and healthy Q1 FY27 to date volumes. It's normalized from Q4 levels. Stock is trading at 50 50 times one year forward P ratio which is 10% higher than the historical average. Last one HSBC has written a note on Teneo. It maintains buy call with a target price of 700 rupees per share. It said Indian passenger vehicles are entering suspension primization cycle which can be very supportive for stock like teneo and Eminem superior ride quality positioning could accelerate industrywide adoption of passive plus suspension and also the feedback that has got from the industry which indicates customers pay premiums for better comfort and driving experience and these are some of the factors that why HSBC is positive on tenico.
>> Yeah uh thanks very much so for that. So that's an interesting list there. Uh just a quick run through of all the stocks that we've uh sort of you know touched upon since the morning. Uh we've had uh Ashokand which is up on your screen one and a quarter% higher.
Seammens which is down about 0.5. GMR airports is up 4% I mean as Vive tells us uh this is going to be a year where they've turned into they've turned a net profit as compared to a loss. uh and the stock is up on the back of it. Physics Vala is the other one. Apart industry, Zyus Life, Volcart, PG Electroplast, Bhat Dynamics, PB Fintech are some of the others which are coming up on your screen for now.
So, uh uh that's the picture with regards to where we are starting. Bh Dynamics is down about 6% or so. Well, we'll have the first rates come up uh as we kick off things and uh we'll just sort of look at the nifty the nifty bank etc. Then we'll get to individual uh stocks and the broader markets will come up after that. Uh what do we have the first rates in just a bit from now uh it's going to be uh higher start uh I think about 0.27% 27% higher 0.3% higher and this is more like it right I mean uh in the morning the indicative start was down uh which made no sense because uh we have through the day on Wednesday oil prices fell this morning prices are down another a dollar or so from f Wednesday's uh you know sort of close uh so you're picking up at lower levels from 90 uh you know 9ish levels which is on Wednesday morning to about 93 this uh and uh the market is now reflecting a little bit of that. So 23,950 the nifty bank is down about a quarter 55,000 and the midcap index is down about is up about 200 points 62,770 or so,50 stocks are up and about 650 stocks are lower. The nifty heat map will tell you how the 50 stocks are starting uh and then we'll pick it up from there. First up on the positive side is Vipro as Remo was telling us Vipro on the ADR front was up big time. Infy at Ccls are some of the others which is starting. So it's a positive tech day. Uh and Reliance is up as well. On the other side, Reliance of course is announced their AGM date 19th of June I think is the AGM for RAL.
Baj Auto is down. OMGC is down a little bit as oil's cooled off. Eternal and Adani ports are some of the others which are starting lower. So it's a 40 point non-committal kind of a start but it's positive for what it's worth. 23940 on the index. Rema >> well it's it as you said all the way.
The nifty IT index opens with a gain of 2 and a half%. Whipro leading from the front and now inching towards a 4% gain but the top five uh nifty gainers today are all IT names. You've got whipro in forces uh TCS Hcl techch Mahindra. We've also seen a comeback of many of the software names in the US. numbers have been very strong, guidance has been upbeat and that is providing some confidence in the IT names after being beaten down. So if you strip out the top five gainers which are the IT heavyweights, you've got Reliance Industries below that with a gain of 1%.
Uh go lower down the line, you see buying in auto names, Mari, Suzuki, Eminem up and about. L&T is also hopeful that perhaps we're closer to the end of the West Asia crisis. So L & D sees some buying and uh let's just pull up if the decline in crew prices is providing some wings to the Asian PES and Interglobe Aviation. Well actually both of them are Asian Paints is now back in the green. I think it had opened slightly lower but flat numbers are later today and the other one is Interglobe uh aviation uh the quarter gone by at least especially March has been a tough one for the entire aviation space. So Interglobe aviation will also be tracked very closely. A quick word on the stocks which are under pressure today. Well, Bajage Auto, OGC, BEL, Bharti, Airtel, ITC, uh, Coal India. Nigel, that's also down nearly about half a percent.
>> Well, that's right. Few stocks actually that are calling for special attention.
HPL Engineering. Pull up that stock.
They've got an LOA for the Kavach project worth around 1,700 crores. So, that's the bombastic mover of the morning. That's up and about. I think it's up close to around 8%. Let's get that up for you. 6% on rather large volumes. The stock on the downside though that's getting smacked is Delta Cop. The Supreme Court they upheld the retrospective levy of 28% GST on online gaming company. So uh you know street is reading that negatively for uh that particular stock. Well Masone do that stock should be in focus. Reports indicate that the finance ministry has cleared a 70,000 crores submarine deal.
So for the time being the stock is more or less flattish but we'll keep an eye out on that one if there is you know some meat because this would be the first P75i summary to be delivered to the Navy 7 years after it was signed. So we'll continue to keep an eye out on that one. OMGC the stock is lower because screw oil prices have corrected while we'll be over the weekend we'll be getting uh you know the numbers coming in on the auto sales run and the stock in focus is Ola electric as Sudashan has been telling us the Bahan data has been looking up actually and probably on a month-to-month basis that could be an improvement though on a year-over-year basis still you know there's a big missa out there uh other stocks are in focus bank of India that one's down close 3% highlighting it because it's falling on rather large volumes so bank of India is stock out there but otherwise if you want to look at winners plenty of there coffee you have coffee day up 15% vial is up close to around 15% life we'll have the management joining us during the course of the day that's up 10% and Adita Infoch is up 10% they have upgraded their guidance so that explains why that stock as well is doing quite well let's pull some of these up for you >> work hard work hard is another one that's uh 10% higher today they've received a marketing authorization from the Indian drug regulator for the antibiotic zenic So that's gotten the street excited and on the way down as we were highlighting BDL Bhara Dynamics is clearly under severe pressure 7 and a half% down.
>> Uh lots of stuff right and uh coming through at this point in time uh and and and you know lots to take stock off as well. uh the Nifty is now settling about 50 odd points uh you know uh higher and uh this is I mean a good outcome after what the gift nifty was indicating for the bulk of the time after 8:00 uh so not bad uh at all the Adani group stocks by the way are flying once again right so Adani total is uh like a rocket ship I think uh 20th of May stock was at about 600 and it's now as we close this month out. So, in about 10 sess, not even 10 days, I think about six odd trading sessions. It's about 850 from 600 odd levels. So, uh there's a fair bit of action which is coming. Oracle Financial I was talking about earlier, it's up about two two and a quarter%.
You know, Dani Energy Solutions is up about 1 and 3/4. Ather I think there is one brokerage note I I'm inclined to think CLSA maybe, but 2% we'll check 3% higher on Ather uh this morning.
Persistent is up 2.6. Thermax is up three. Uh so yeah I mean there is there is a lot of action across the board as far as single stocks are concerned. Well it's uh conference season and uh one of the most attended sort of sought after conferences is the Bofa India conference the flagship annual investor conference.
Uh this is of course 2026 26th edition uh which is going to kick off and as always we have uh you know the top man from Bofa joining us to sort of raise the curtain so as to speak as far as the conference is concerned. Amisha is head of India research at Bank of America Global Research. Uh Amish great to have you with us here. Thank you very much for joining us.
>> Pleasure is all mine.
>> Uh so what what do you expect as just tell us a little bit about the conference? how the how this one is set up and and what's what are you aiming to get to investors who are going to be there uh uh what's what's the message that you I mean of course there going to be company meetings etc but is there an overarching kind of theme uh that that you've sort of set >> so Prashant the theme is new frontiers of growth because as we know you know we know that because of the west Asia conflict >> uh the historical models that were working or themes that were working maybe have peaked out maybe there is there is need for new avenues of growth We talk about energy security, AI, data centers, ship building. So all of these we think are the new areas where there will be growth driving India.
>> So the focus is focus is on new frontiers of growth.
>> Well attended conference. It's a week-long event. So we are doing first three days in Mumbai right here right here and then we have six different field trips across different sectors like internet consumption. There's a policy tour where you meet the policy makers etc. So it's a week-long event and we hope uh that there will be a lots to absorb and learn and understand what will drive growth going forward.
>> And you want to tell us a little bit about the new frontiers of growth what will drive uh India from here on >> so Remma as as of now this is expectation uh you know from our side in terms of research uh policies are yet to come out uh but I'm I'm sure you would have heard about energy security some of the >> spoke about it last time as well as a policy imperative.
>> Absolutely. Within the energy security if you drill down there are six different themes right you know there is coal gasification there is bofuels there is electrification you know deep water exploration so on and so forth and within each one of these themes there are sub themes like let's say within electrification how much comes from nuclear power how much is coal how much is batteries and so on and so forth you know so it's a pretty well- encompassing thing and over and above that we think that you know things like ship building so I personally believe that ship building is where you had EMS sector let's say 7 years back >> EMS was not a sector in India it got created on the back of government push and policies and PLI scheme etc same is already replicating now in the case of ship building because 90 plus% market share of ship building globally is China Korea so China Korea and Japan and this is a very labor intensive sector population is aging in these three countries it's a matter of time that the market share moves somewhere else and India is trying to say that you we have a plenty of labor if the market share dislocation happens why not us you know so so that's one of the reasons there are other factors at play but policy action has already started there is a PLI scheme that has come in there is a capeex subsidy scheme there is an interest rate subvention scheme there's a new fund that they are creating to uh you know to finance ship building sector and so on and so forth so we think it can become like a multi-deade theme going forward >> oh interesting you know if ship building is going to be at the juncture that the EMS companies were six seven years ago Then interesting times ahead not that what about cap goods you know we've got a few earnings that have come in the last few days some of them numbers not that great but commentary has been fairly positive how are you feeling about that theme so two things I will say idle so first of all across the board a trend that we are seeing is that because of higher inflation or higher commodity prices >> order flows and topline growths are a beat yes >> but margin uh because margins are also taking an impact because of commodity so earnings are not necessarily a beatm M >> right so headline is a positive but the bottom line is not a positive this is by and large just generalizing for the sector but within the cap good space we think that there are some subsegments of capex that will do very well again the likes of data centers ship building defense cables transformers you know so that as an ecosystem or any company linked to that ecosystem will do very well but in general anything that was linked to state government capex state governments as we know have gone more populist and at the cost of capeex therefore so you know so state government capeex is primarily in water irrigation metros those kind of things we think will take a knockdown in terms of capeex >> uh do you have some hard numbers to talk about why you believe ship building is where it was uh where EMS was 7 years ago in terms of uh valuation in terms of size and what it can become going forward because already ship building is a discovered theme unlike say EMS you know 7 8 years back it was a very small industry.
>> Sure. So uh so rema first that as I said 90 plus% market shareh is three countries globally. It's a labor intensive sector. Labor in those three countries is aging. As a as a matter of fact as a result over time this market share will move somewhere in the world.
If it is labor intensive India can at least have a >> that's India's right to win.
>> So that's the first point. The second I would say is that India by volumes is 6% of the global seabone trade not by value but by volumes. But again 90 plus% of Indian cargo moves on foreign flagships.
So in in times like these like a west Asia conflict it's not our war it's somebody else's war. But let's say if a ship does not sail from there it becomes your supply chain problem. So from a self sufficiency or self-reliance perspective also we need to have some of our own ships. If you think about it, India has very few ships of its own and there are very few companies that have ships of their own, right? You know, so can you have more ship owners and if you have to have ship owners, can you also have ship builders and if you have ship builders and can you have a value chain around that is basically the way you have to think about it. Now in terms of policy action, you already have a PLI scheme that has come through. You have a capeex subsidy scheme that has come through. You have an interest rate subvention scheme. They have classified ships now as an infrastructure category.
So it gets into a priority sector lending and they are trying to create a fund uh you know which can then give out loans to ship builders and ship owners.
So right now uh you know it is more in the policy action stage. Over a period of time if it bulks up and if there is uh you know if India finds success then you'll find many more countries want sorry many more companies wanting to enter in this space as owners or builders.
>> So right now how do you play it ship building? So right now you guys are right uh you know there are handful of companies which are listed >> forin mazgow garden reach all these companies basically >> handful of companies which are listed but I I think that that that sector will expand will expand >> uh but but these are these are stocks you'd be I mean I'm just asking for publish nothing which is uh I mean you you these are these are good thing stocks to buy even after what they've done valuation wise. So, so Prashant I would say that you know if you really believe that you know this is going to become a sector of prominence uh then I think there is a long runway for growth >> but obviously if the if the question is more from the perspective of 2026 can I make money possibly not >> okay the other two areas you mentioned which is transformers and cables right which is again capex uh sectors that you like uh this is related to the it's it's like a AI kind of allied kind of story because that's the which is doing ex exceptionally well right across the board.
>> Absolutely. Yes. you know so AI as of now but again if there is a policy action in terms of power distribution reforms energy security then there will be another leg of growth that gets added to this theme >> uh you know so then then so let's say if these companies are already doing 15 to 20% growth can they become sustainably 20 plus% growth companies and therefore can the premium valuation sustain is a debate and it's depend that debate is dependent on a binary equation of whether energy security becomes a policy framework but we do think that going by the logic of it and the economics of it government should definitely announce it >> in India if you want to sort of you know look at that you said data centers is another area where you think uh there will be there's money there's this you like that space right so direct data center companies I mean there are a few one or but very few right uh in in India so you have to play it through the allied kind of space >> the e value chain play >> cables and wires perhaps is a is a strong enough >> absolutely so I think that you know given the valuations also in context transformers in our view are now very expensive stocks.
>> We currently we prefer more of engines, >> cables and wires, >> power generators, power transmitters and power financing companies.
>> And and if you have to extend that then I would say that you know the the companies in the energy value chain which is coal and gas utilities. So those are uh companies where we find value transformers while uh is obviously beneficiary of the theme is very expensive as a sector like 7D multiple sector. Yeah.
>> It's not something that we push.
>> So you said cables. Uh what do you mean engines? Uh >> the the companies that make engines that in turn goes into backup power gen sets >> cabins etc. I mean those kind of things basically etc. >> What else there? Cables engines I think you mentioned a few other areas >> power financing companies financing power generators power transmission companies but the regulated ones you know with the guaranteed roe. We are not that much positive on the renewable place. Renewable developers we mean because these companies have a lot of growth but their returns are not uh great you know so they all make less you know singledigit returns so it's not a very return generating sector even though there is a lot of growth in that space >> uh anish so the sectors that you've highlighted the themes we've spoken about are all structural themes and they will do well in the next 5 to seven years but for many of them you said that perhaps 2026 or the near-term may not be the year where you make money so if you just had to look at the next 9 months 12 months Where do you think money can be made in India?
>> So uh Reema look this is a tough year for India >> or it's a continuation of a tough year from the last year as well. So uh so if you if you look at our year ahead views we think that from where we are in the markets currently Nifty can possibly give you a 10% rupee returns uh from now >> this is best case >> uh no this is our base case. So 10% rupee returns from where we are trading right now. But if you're sitting in December of this year and when you look at the year as a whole even with a 10% upside from current levels we are talking about 0% returns or flat returns in rupee terms. So in dollar terms obviously because rupee has depreciated from a foreign investor perspective your dollar returns are going to be negative for the year as a whole.
>> Yes.
>> Uh and therefore India definitely continues to underperform emerging markets this year. Right. So, so by and large there is you are right uh this is not a great year to make money in India and therefore it's going to be bottom-up themes there are about 15 16 stocks that we are excited about within our coverage which is high conviction and all they all fall into the themes that we are discussing >> right and just one more question when we last spoke you brought down your GDP estimates uh we were discussing that how it was 14% uh sorry you brought down your earnings growth expectations from 14% to 8 1.5% now Q4 was fine have you revised the earnings expectations for this year >> we haven't you know so first of all you would recolct that we we took our earnings down in March itself west Asia conflict you would remember exactly started on 28th of Feb >> so we were anticipatory uh you know we were proactive we cut the earnings west Asia conflict unfortunately as we speak is still going on and as a result and we had you know when we had taken these estimates the assumption was that the conflict gets over the end end of June uh you know so if it does not get over before the end of June there no reason to upgrade our estimates. Now coming to earnings itself. Now I know there is a general belief that the earning season in the fourth quarter was good. I would say yes and no. Uh let me explain that.
So let's say Nifty 48 out of 50 companies have reported at the headline 2/3 of the companies that have reported have had a beat. Okay. And that's good news. But when you look at the absolute growth number nifty has delivered only 4.6% earnings growth which is which is not very exciting. 0.1 point 2 one/ird of this 4.6% growth uh actually sorry 45% of these 4.6% 6% growth is explained by commodity rally. So steel aluminium kind of companies is equal to bulk of your profits you know is generally this is cyclical earnings and investors don't pay a higher valuation multiple for commoditydriven earnings growth right so that's the second point if you make it broader and look at nse 200 companies growth has only been 9%. So again very muted growth for a midcap small cap kind of universe. This is n 500 200 >> 200 9 >> 9% growth 9% growth one/ird of that 9% is again commodities and out there 80% of the companies have actually missed earnings only 20 have delivered a beat so you know so you can really swing the earnings data both ways if you're an optimist you can you will focus on nifty and say that two/3s are a beat >> and you will skip the point that you know the growth there is a beat but the beat is actually very small numbers uh and then final point I will make is that whether you look at Nifty or NE 200 the beats were uh in very specific sectors which is financials, IT, utilities variety of other sectors you know the beat was nothing meaningful to talk about. So uh so again from that perspect and June quarter because of the west west Asia conflict we know is going to be a stressful quarter. So we are not yet in the camp of looking at upside triggers. Uh final point I will make there is a debate going on whether India needs to hike interest rates or not. We as a house have taken a view that there is a 50 basis points of hike in F27. So one this year and one in March of next year. If that comes that is also a growth impact uh to Nifty or NE 200 earnings.
>> Okay. Final question then before we let you go Amish what about uh the AI trade?
You know now T has become the new B.
Everyone's talking about trillion. Uh what's where are you all at? Do you think uh is getting into a bit of a bubble territory or >> say as Prashant said te has become the new go >> as as Prashant said and you know the discussion that we had earlier uh so where are you all on that one >> so look here let me bring in our global views uh so if I if I look at the research from my global strategist he's arguing uh clearly that the rally has gone overboard >> uh his views okay some stats So you know if I if if we look at the BFA private wealth you know it's about $45 trillion that we manage within that the allocation to equities is at a historical high at around 66%.
>> The allocation to cash is at a historic low at around 9%.
>> We worry that the inflation in the US is going to go beyond 4%. And therefore the policy rates in the US will get a hike.
uh and the trade in US as we know is crowded in AI or tech stocks uh and his views are that there will be a he also does a bull you know bull bear indicator his indicator is currently suggesting that it is an extreme bullishness and therefore market should have a pullback on a tactical basis so we are talking about a near-term correction in the US as a result >> and what about our techn underperformers the fear was AI is eating into everyone at these valuations you know, with regard to the yields, cash flow yields, the PA in comparison to historic averages as well and the kind of underperformance, do you think there's a chance that this one's actually bottoming out? Uh, bottoming out more likely. Do would we go to still bottom fish yet? Not really. So, we were underweight. Uh, we we are not as bearish as we were before because the stocks have come off. uh but you know there is still lack of positive triggers in that sector and the valuation gap between let's say foreign listed software companies or IT firms uh they trade at 9 to 10 times P multiple large caps in India is 15 16p multiple so we still think that the valuation gap is still still large enough you know so basically can the can the stocks flatline from here more likely but will they give you like a meaningful return unlikely >> interesting >> one speaker you're really looking forward to listening to from in the conference.
>> Well, there are a few but I would say that we have some you know we have speakers coming from the prime minister's office. Uh you know since we spoke a lot about policy that's going to be important. We have some state ministers presenting on why data centers in their respective states again a thematic sector so will be very interesting to >> and your personal opinion on this uh evergreen question of whether we will see uh capital gains tax on equities uh being brought down. uh it's like a huge debate out there your your own view. So Prashant you know clearly uh has taxation lopsided allocations of retail uh savings towards equities completely yes has it has the capital gains discouraged foreign investors especially when rupee is hurting especially when you know earnings growth is low valuations for India are high so therefore is India out of my radar as a foreign investor the answer is yes and and given that large part of the rupee problem right now is also So lack of capital flows uh I think it makes sense for us to do it. So the answer that I'm trying to give is that you know logically if you think about it we must do it whether we will do it is completely >> we will we'll get a signal at the conference from some of the people there. Thank you very much Amish and good luck with the conference and wishing you all the best and I think it's a great title for a new report. Tea is the newbie. Julian is the new billion if I so myself. But thank you.
>> And since it's a Friday, I think uh tea I mean beer could be the new tea.
>> Kidding.
>> All right. Great chatting with you.
Thank you very much for coming down to the studio. We look forward to speaking with you once your conference is done.
>> Uh let's get the management of physics VA on the show now. The company's Q4 net losses narrowed 76%. So from 289 cr it's down to 69 cr on a year-on-year basis.
and the management is guiding for a 30% revenue growth in FI27. Pratik Maheshwari, co-founder at Physics Vala is now joining in. Pratik, thank you very much for joining in. This is Remma here. So, let's talk about your guidance. 30% topline growth, 100% Eida growth. Uh what about at the bottom line? Because you've narrowed your losses considerably. You're like one or two good quarters away from reporting full year profits. Will we get to, you know, f will FI27 on the whole at the bottom line be a profitable year? and tell us how you've arrived at your guidance for on revenues and margins.
>> Uh so FI27 fullear profitability is a no-brainer for us like we would have delivered this year full year profitability as well but because of the labor law changes and couple of uh capitalization um uh changes by our auditor we couldn't have delivered um full year profitability. Next year what we are guiding market is 100% uptick in our IBDA upwards of 100% EBDA as well as 30% revenue will be improved. This growth is coming from primarily from higher enrollment rates and and bit improvement in uh our booze of uh of our courses and um uh specifically our K12 segment uh the online K12 segment be state boards curious junior have outperformed like you know we have seen 300 400 port 400% growth in these segments and as well as uh and as well as the the early exam categories ITJ J need uh continues to show uh higher enrollment and uh ARPU growth.
>> Uh Pratik, hi morning, thanks for joining in.
You know competitive exams and how uh you know they're being conducted and there's a huge debate about that itself but that's another uh story another conversation. Uh just a quick word on the announcement that you're going to be putting money into your NBFC arm right.
Yeah.
>> Uh what was the need to do it? Uh because you were already doing it through external NBFCs and I'm assuming most of these loans which will be given out for are for are to students who want to uh sort of enroll with physics fala right so it's like I mean there's a loan and then the money come but uh does it raise risks underwriting risks? So we have been doing this initiative from past two years and um with the external partner we could able to lower our NPA as less as one less than 1%. and the loan are essentially less than one year duration in nature. Since we teach below poverty line or below middle-class students that is the majority of our students and we stand for affordability uh we have to give them inclusion and as well as empowering with with the with the small ticket size loans as well as the vision behind this initiative is we wanted to uh we wanted to underwrite students on academic abil academic ability. So we have the maximum academic data of of the country and by using this data we uh we have designed the ML model to underwrite students. So that is the vision and two3 of the loans is for is for PW students and one/ird is for um outside PW students. Having said that it's is just a new initiative. there will not be any meaningful capital allocation from here we will do in this segment and we will continue to prove um less than one% uh NPS and this will enable uh our online business our offline business as well as standalone this fintech business will also remain profitable >> all right hi pratik uh good morning good to see you Nigel on this side uh a quick word with regard to your profitability because I think offline business is still negative that's expected to move into the green. Uh could you give us some clarity on that front and also you know from the time an offline center is opened how many years does it take to turn around 2 3 years if you could help us out with some clarity on that front.
>> Yeah. So I'll quickly touch upon the offline centers profitability. First year of operations offline centers it does around minus 6% of aidup. Second year of operations is turns positive and does 5% of third year is where the return of cap investment capital happens uh where we where we reach around 12 to 15% of 60% of our vidyha which is IITG and neat examination offline sectors are already have been clocking profits and the remaining 40% centers will become profitable in upcoming years. Um if you see uh from FI25 to 26 at a group level the entire offline have improved by 9% in terms of profitability. FI25 it was - 19% and FI26 we have reported minus 10%.
Uh we have already demonstrated a 9% delta and this year what we are aiming at a group level profitability in offline learning center. This is coming from the same center growth as well as uh by opening new centers. So we are very confident in the nature of the business is the first three months is where uh you get to see the entire year trend and we are very confident if you see our quarter four numbers alone the revenue is up by 50% which is which is a very healthy sign for the entire year and um this year also uh the running quarter also is is giving quite promising indicators.
>> Okay, got it. So good topline growth.
You're talking about profitability as well moving up from here on. things are looking up for you going by the guidance that you're giving us.
>> Quick word, you know, you're saying you're going to turn profitable in FI27.
I'm looking at a note from ARA. It came out last month and uh they had initiated coverage on your stock and they were sounding quite optimistic on your prospects. But they are penciling in 670 crores of PAT in FI28. Get a bill?
>> Yeah, very easily. very very easily.
That is um we will we will deliver much more than that is what we have we are aiming and um and see uh the students uh enroll for grade 9 grade 10th and we have a retention number. We are on a path to becoming a lifelong learning partner. So it's a very very predictable business. None of the macros be it be it oil price or be it war can affect this because this is a non-discretionary spend of a household and um we have and by the neat examination going online it will open up a whole new set of possibilities and and neat is our biggest exam categories as well. So that that that will again give us another push. Uh as well as we have ventured into skilling exam short-term AI skilling courses and that is also we have 100,000 students have enrolled in just one and a half month in short-term AI skilling courses.
>> Okay. Uh so from a cost point of view Pratik not from your AI courses that you give to your students how much are you investing in AI per se? What is it as a percentage of your overall expenses? How much has it gone up? And by any chance because there is a lot of chatter about how the cost of AI itself is going up.
Will it at some point start hurting your margins or are you seeing that already?
>> Yeah, very very very good set of question. See uh we have been early adopters of EI technology since 2023. We have been using this within our courses in terms of doubt solving in terms of subjective answer sheets checking in terms of motivation revision mentorship.
See we our average A R A R A R A R A R A R A R A R A R A R ARPO for the student is 4,000 rupees. So I cannot just like that design a rapper and consume tokens like you know so so uh so we implemented rag we had invested in a small language models we have created the world's most accurate stem small language model we we have launched it on on hugging face as well we we have called it arbata now arbata 2.0 0 is coming which will be fine-tuned on 20 billion parameters. So um uh so overall company at a company level we spend total 250 K rupees annually in terms of people and the cloud cost uh the AI data scientist uh as well as the training cost is a part of this uh this cost this continue to remain same but AI is a great opportunity in education. If you see history of education the early exa the early preparation used to happen in a recorded learning for format we came up with the live learning for format and now we are AI powered live learning uh format and AI is really making education hyperpersonalized that's why we could see a higher engagement in our batches higher paid to paid conversion in our batches but the future of the education is a socritic onetoone tutor a conversational AI and we are committed to make the world's most engaging and affordable AI tutor and this will be a big release this year and the entire team is committed towards it and it it will skyrocket our engagements like you know the course completion rates will go as big as 60 to 90% is this is what uh our commitment to the markets as well as >> and we we look forward to it uh thank you very much for joining us there uh so uh and good luck we look forward to another chat soon thank you uh that's physics VA stocks up about 3% % or so at this point you know there is a important news from the IMD uh it's at the bottom of the screen and it's not looking good uh which is the fact that from uh their earlier assessment that monsoon rains will be about 92% a long period average I think we are uh now at 90%. So of course there is a error rate plus minus I think 2 3%. But uh this is uh you know uh so basically monsoon forecasts have been downgraded uh it was expected to be a poor season but uh you know the assessment for example I mean you know the monsoon rains were supposed to hit Kerala on the 26th of May I believe but then I think that was pushed out uh to later so we'll try and have the IMD representative join us uh a little bit from now. Markets I think have taken a bit of a leg lower but I mean we're up about we're flat from being up about 50 60 odd points or so. There was the opening flourish right at the word go we made the day high and from there we've sort of you know cooled off uh since uh so more on this as I said with hopefully the IMD person joining in but there's some Msei region and adjustments which will take place later today. I mean Vive is here with those. Vivik morning again.
>> Well good morning you are absolutely right. So you know there could be another reason as far as some sell flows that you could see today. Remember on account of the revised capitalization and the float factor that MSI is now looking at you know this particular time India will see net outflows of a little over $750 million that will happen in the second half of the trading session.
In terms of you know the key adjustments that will happen today four additions remember federal bank over $400 million of inflows will be seen MCX over $300 million Nalco over $240 million and Indian bank over $200 million. There are four deletions as well that will happen today. RBNL over $140 million Kalyanas Jubilant Food as well as Hundai Hundai will see outflows of close to $300 million. Now it's a net outflow event like we just mentioned and along with that remember keep an eye out on the India small cap index as well. uh that particular index will see 14 additions and 29 deletions the higher number of deletions broadly due to the significant underperformance that India has seen compared to other emerging markets. Now along with that what's actually happening is the broader market universe in this particular quarter has actually seen their market capitalization fall below the minimum global market cap requirement and like we've been highlighting India's weightage as far as the MSI EM index has now fallen to quite low at 11.2%. So that again continues to remain a problem and like we mentioned the new free float factor framework is something that will lead to a significant downweight in today's uh trading session itself.
>> All right. Uh thanks very much Vive for that. Uh so that is the uh MSG story. So some sell flows are there as well.
Markets absolutely flat now. We'll just take a quick commercial break here.
We'll come back and we'll get you an exclusive conversation with the management of GMR airports on their fourth quarter numbers. the full year FI26 numbers as well and more importantly the outlook that's the conversation with sort of Chava of GMR uh on the other side Well, GMR reports deliver a solid set of results in the March quarter. In fact, the company has reported a profit for the very first time in over a decade.
They reported a net profit for the quarter at around 400 cr rupees. That compares with the loss of around 250 cr rupes the same time last year. The company handled a total of 121.6 6 million passengers in FI26 and now eyes a 4 to 5% growth in this fiscal. My colleague Vive had a chance to speak to Mr. Sorov Chavla the executive director of the JMR group to put the quarter gone by into perspective and the road ahead.
Let's hear him out.
First one of course you know you started off the year you saw operation Synindu take place in the middle of the year you did see uh quite a bit of disruptions in terms of flight timings, flight schedules, aviation capacity. uh two of India's largest carriers saw that both Air India as well as Indigo and you also towards the end of the year saw West Asia conflict that impacted air traffic across the world despite that how did you manage to turn profitable and uh going forward do you feel that you've now set a very favorable base going into FI27 >> so our planning always envisage that we will be uh profitable during this fiscal year u and that was predicated on one aspect which was the tariff of Delhi airport. Uh so as soon as that came obviously our revenues uh went up sharply uh and that was post the expansion of of Delhi airport to 100 odd million passenger base. So we it was always there on cards. Uh we never uh what do you call give any guidance uh on on revenues and profitability. So uh we just kept a positive perspective over there. Um you know from our perspective we also plan for some of the black swan events you know so whether it was the mishap in uh in Ahmedabad or it was operation Sindur due to which uh you know traffic came off and then the Pakistani airspace has been has been shut. uh because of that uh we we plan all those in our in our in our forecasting and uh and uh even today as I speak uh we are very confident that uh you know we will continue with this momentum going forward despite uh these conditions still continuing in this current fiscal year.
>> You've said you're going to continue with the momentum but I'm going to force you and I'm going to try and quantify uh some of the numbers going into FI27.
FI26 you've set a favorable pace given the fact that because of so much disruption packs growth across quite a few of the airports was flat to marginally positive now with this base and going into FI27 and we also know that you have two very big airports coming up across the country what kind of passenger growth are you targeting if you could break it down in terms of the airport wise that will be great but overall what is the group targeting in terms of passenger growth >> so organically I think we should grow by about 4 to 5%. Uh you know despite the current conditions the first half will be softer than the second half. Uh first half is uh is uh is continuingly being impacted negatively impacted because of the geopolitical issues but we believe in the second half things should come back and in that context I think about 4 to 5% organic growth uh will be there.
Um we are we have two airports which are going to go live. Uh uh very immediately the Brownfield airport in Nagpur will come into our portfolio which will grow our our our packs uh uh inverse there and of course the opening up of Bugapuram or Visag airport that will also >> quick on the capacity there and how much you all are expanding it by. So in both these places uh the the the packs will be about 2.5 million odd each uh is what should get added in the current year. Uh and with respect to uh uh you know uh and these will all come into play in Q2 so about a 9 month impact uh positive impact will be there. Okay, understood that. You know, you also gave a very important update to the exchanges to the investors during Q4 where you know your largest partner group ADP was pairing it stake to a level where both yourself as well as group ADP will have very similar holding as far as the platform is concerned. Simplify that structure for us. Do they continue as partners and how are you funding the stake by from group ADP? So I think uh the uh the press release by ADP uh is is quite clear.
They have categorically said that this is one of uh transactions that they are taking and uh and by selling about 7.3% stake uh uh to the GMR family. uh the understanding with ADP has always been from day one is that at all points of time uh GMR will be 1% higher in equity stakeholding issued equity capital stakeholding. So uh that will continue.
the uh group ADP uh in order to comply with this condition uh you know had converted their equity into a into a into a convertible instrument called OCRPS >> and uh so by selling about 7.3% stake they will be able to convert a part of their OCRPS to maintain that delta of five 1% between the GMR and uh and and group ADP >> so no change in operations the shareholding remain as per what was the original agreement and a quick word on how that particular stake by will be funded.
>> So it's the promoters who have bought it and they have their own uh you know resources to purchase that stake.
>> So when we look at the airport business in India I think we can now broadly categorize it into two key categories.
One is the aero part of the business which has a fixed return and the other one is the non-erero part which you've been very excited in past interactions with us FI27 what kind of growth are you envisaging especially with new airports coming in and also a quick word given that you have so much real estate across you know your various airports any plans to monetize any of them >> so very clearly I'll tell you uh uh we are not too too business-based uh we are three business based uh you know one is the aero part which is uh tariff linked and gives a fixed uh uh you know return on equity uh and that's pretty much well understood that's the utility part of our business >> the second which now you can see the fruits of our strategy is the non-ero part of it very interestingly uh non-ero today uh as a platform uh both from rea revenue and eida perspective is bigger than Hyderabad what are the utility business. Okay. So that gives you the consumerf facing consumer business that is there.
>> The third business which till date uh has been more as land monetization. So you know you you basically give you offer land to third party developers who develop commercial properties or hotels on that parcel of land and we get land rentals. Now that is a lowest margin business for any person >> you know >> the real business is when you develop properties on them on those and then either you monetize them or you run earn rentals on it.
>> So as we go forward that is where our focus would be is to how to create a platform play on the real estate side of it. How do we make a business model of it? How do we extract enough value so that our equity shareholders derive the benefits of this over a period of long time period of time is something is what we are really working on and I think in next uh few months we will articulate it to the marketplace hopefully in the first quarter call itself of of fiscal 27 we'll be able to articulate as to how we are modifying our business model to create this third very valable uh uh >> you know it's a very interesting conversation with uh uh GMR airports management and I mean it's a management you don't hear very often at all on television or media so we will uh sort of you know keep getting you excerpts of that conversation uh through the course of the day and of course I mean you know the full interview will air a little later stocks I think at the day's high uh in a market which is not markets I think are have flatlined uh on the nifty we'll take a break we are back with Vine Rajani on the other side of HGC Securities for some technical trades coming up in just a bit.
Welcome back. Number of stocks advancing still more than the number of stocks declining which is good. The headline index as well holding with the gain of around 40 points odd. That's the Nifty.
But the Sensex is up close to around 200 points. But let's tell you what the data points are suggesting. Now you've got the direction right because the Sensex is up 200 points. Right? You pull up the 76,000 uh uh 76,000 call. The premium out there is holding at around 629 odd.
So directionally you have got it correct. However, uh there is some writing being seen out there. Even if you look at the 76,100 call out there as well the premium is lower. It's down by close to around 8% approximately holding at around 570 rupees. While on the flip side there is some put writing as well.
We have seen 75,900 put the premium holding around 500 rupees. So just plugging in these data points you know there is writing being seen on both sides. It appears you know the range is more or less 75,400 on the downside on the upside 6,600. I say this because the call writing is continuing though directionally the markets are moving up.
The Sensex as well is up but there is clear signs of writing. So that 76,600 will be a crucial resistance mark in terms of levels that you're looking at that 50 and 20 DMA. That's a crucial support. You know, we're little holding a little bit higher above that, but that's a crucial support from a bullish perspective and the bulls will want to actually drive home the advantage.
Continue to trade above these levels. So interesting times. Nifty as well as Sensex both them higher. But I think uh the options data suggesting that we continue to remain in around this,000 to around 1100 point range. Well, let's go across to Vine Rajani, senior technical as well as derivative analyst who joins us on the show. Hi, Vine. Good morning.
Good to see you when uh the Nifty is holding up Sensex as well a little bit higher. Do you think this market's got enough to go ahead and break out of this range?
>> Yeah, good morning. So, Nifty has been consolidating in a narrow range for last three trading session and Nifty is also hovering around its 50 days EMA and not able to surpass that decisively. So, that level is precisely placed around 24,000. So we are waiting a decisive close above 24,000. Buth the good thing is that broader market have been participating very well. The midcap index is trading at its all-time high.
Small cap and micro cap 250 index is also performing very well. So that way it is very good. Advanced declare ratio has been positive. So stock specific rotation, sector specific rotation is going on very well and there is a good chance that market will remain like that and product market participation will continue to like be like that. So 24100 is a resistance for the nifty above which it will break out and then we can expect a next target of 24500. On the downside we see a strong support coming in at 23,800 where the previous break breakout was registered and 20 days EMA is also placed there. So 23800 should be kept as a stop loss on closing basis but broader market participation is very well today.
It is performing yesterday last session matter and commodities were performing.
So overall uh benchmarks are consolidating while broader markets are doing very well.
>> Got it. Okay. All right. Individual stocks.
>> Yeah. So from individual stocks we like it. Uh see uh nifty IT index is actually broken out from the inverted head and shoulder pattern on the daily chart and looks like that the participation will increase from here and it can take leadership from here and we are expecting a further 3 to 5% upside in the index. So from the IT index we like co forge which is looking relatively better than the others. So co forge is placed around 1434. One can trade long around here. One can keep a stop loss at 1410. On the upside we are expecting a target of 1485. The second stock we like on the charts is the vija diagnostic. So entire this diagnostic segment has been performing very well and out of that vija diagnostic is looking good. It is breaking out from the consolidation pattern. So around 132, one can go long.
One can keep a trading stop loss at 1280. On the upside, we are expecting a target of 1350 for the short term. So these are the two trading PS from my side.
>> Got it. Okay. All right. Uh thanks a lot for that, Vinn. Well, by the way, keep your eye on the bottom of your screen.
We're getting some tepid comments coming in from the Cumins management. I think the con callers on going by the flashes that we're seeing. I guess one of our colleagues are listening into that. uh comments I think uh they were talking about moderate growth and the other one is solar industries massive order win I think so close to around thousand cr order win is what they have done so that stock is perking up a little bit while commence is moving to the low point of the day because of that commentary to the break come on the other side we'll be focusing on oil because oil prices have dipped lat will be speaking to bank of America's global economist Claudia on the other Right.
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