Despite the sensationalist title, the content offers a rare dose of intellectual discipline by prioritizing capital preservation and probabilistic rigor over speculative hype. It is a pragmatic blueprint for survival that correctly treats trading as a game of risk management rather than a search for certainty.
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🔴 BITCOIN LIVE TRADING: THE BEGINNING OF THE END?Added:
All right, all right, all right, all right, legends. I actually came to the stream a couple minutes early.
Bitcoin is nuking. Um, had to hop on the stream as soon as possible. Now, the question on everyone's mind is, is this just a dump before we pump again, or can we move significantly lower?
Let's discuss it. Um, guys, let me know if you could hear me in the chat. Testing, testing.
What's up? What's up? What's up, guys?
So, you can see here that I actually entered a Bitcoin short trade.
I entered a Bitcoin short trade um yesterday. In yesterday's live stream, I entered a Bitcoin short trade, but of course, it was shared in my community first. Um, it's looking pretty solid at this point in time. Bitcoin is now sitting right at around $79,000. We just had a dump to approximately 78.6K.
This was the trade that I took on stream yesterday, which I just held on to uh overnight. Was shared in my premium group. We're currently up. Took a little bit of profits. Um, granted I would have liked to take more profits lower, but it is what it is. Stop loss is at break even. Position is protected up around 17K. Let's see if this can continue lower. My tow short trade as well is looking very very nice at this point in time up around 20K.
Um, so let's see. Let's see if the price action develops. We're going into 10:00 a.m. and usually we can have some kind of reversal to the upside. So, if this is just a shakeout, I would anticipate that the reversal could come from here.
Otherwise, Bitcoin can move significantly lower. Guys, remember this trade as I kick off the live stream was not only shared in the live stream after I shared it within the community, but it was shared in my community first and my premium group always comes first. It is completely free. If you want to join me and get access to my trades in this market, you have the first link in the description down below. DM me the keyword CBM on Telegram and you're able to join that private group. Um, it's free because you're trading with your own capital. So, I typically trade on Bluffin, but as you can see here, I also opened up my Bitcoin short position on weeks. So, right now, not stressed about this position whatsoever simply because I have my stop loss at break even. So, if we go back up, it is what it is. But happy to have taken this trade within my community and also on the live stream yesterday. Just holding on to my position. Shorts are printing. Exactly.
So, actually, I'm going to take probably a little bit of profits soon. Um, we're right. We We swept that level. The bulls want to hold here. Actually, this is uh I'm gonna message in my community right now that I'm going to take a little bit more profits on the trade simply because we touched into some pretty pivotal support. The bulls really want to hold this level and this is a level where I could TP some of my uh short for Bitcoin. So, I'm going to take some profits uh from my short just a little bit.
I'll close approximately another 25% on of this position.
There you go.
Took another 25% on this position. One moment. One moment, guys. Just got to update the group.
Stop remains at break even. Nice dump.
All right.
Let's see. Let's see how the price action develops, guys. Um, pretty pretty nice stuff, guys. Pretty nice stuff. The market looked very, very heavy. And as we discussed, there's a chance here that that could be it, but I don't want to get ahead of oursel like we can't get ahead of ourselves because a lot of the times the market will have this move and then we'll just pop right back up. Um, so yeah.
Guys, only 120 people watching.
Hello everyone. Hello. Hello. Hello.
Hello.
Alrighty.
So, we're chilling.
Short and chilling. By the way, I added a little uh poster, a little Bitcoin poster in the back.
Let me know what you guys think.
Now that we flushed out some longs, is it time to go long?
Is it time to go long is the question on everyone's mind. Again, we did not hit the 200 day moving average.
Is this the beginning of the end? Guys, what I will say is we've already had a move down and this is not the point in the market where you just start piling into positions. I have been shorting from higher. I've been discussing this on the channel time and time again and I I entered another scalp short position here and I like the way that this is developing, but we need to see like more confirmation. So, first and foremost, this bull market support band is a very strong level of potential support. It's a pretty big range and it goes all the way down to $76,300.
So, I'm eyeing that.
But you can see we kind of had this triple top with lower highs yesterday.
Did you go long or short? I got back in yesterday. Uh Chris 8839. As you can see here on the live stream yesterday and within my group, I went short on Bitcoin at around $81,500.
It was looking like a good scalp shorting opportunity. And the reason being, I don't know, we were watching this live if you guys tuned in. We had a very, very nice pump with the Clarity Act. Then we failed to get acceptance above that $82,000 level. And my stop loss was actually right up here. I had a soft stop loss of a 1 hour close above the 200 day moving average. Did not manage to hit there. And now you can see the results of that. So this is really in line with what I've been discussing on the channel. um effectively saying that just because Bitcoin is holding up well but weak compared to the stock market, we should not be playing the catch-up trade. And what I mean by this is underperformance typically results in continued underperformance. And so yes, the stock market was making all-time highs after all-time highs after all-time highs. And again, we'll take a look at the stock market today, but you can see that we had a little bit of a drop here at the at the market open. So, sure, we had a little bit of a drop, but I warned you guys that as soon as the stock market has the smallest of correction, look at that, a 1% drop, Bitcoin will struggle more because it's been struggling more even on the uptrend. So, you shouldn't assume that weakness in one asset class means that it will play catchup, especially when you're talking about the riskiest of riskiest of assets. That's why I went short on Bitcoin. I will probably continue to take profits uh on this trade. Stop losses at break even, as I said. So, risk-free position, stress free. Um and now we see how the price action develops because we just hit 10:00 a.m. here Eastern Standard Time. And usually this can mark a potential reversal if there will be some buying. In my group today, I also talked about the fact that we had significant outflows from the Bitcoin spot ETF perspective.
And that coincided with Sailor's crazy buying spree yesterday. He purchased almost 10,000 bitcoins yesterday with his stretch product. And so you can see here that was the last day for him to be able to do that until the next expected uh the next dividend date. So let's see.
Obviously this is no longer at par um and money may flow back into this until we repeat the cycle again. But you want to see continue buying from the um ETFs from Coinbase side of things if this rally is to be sustainable.
Again, I will say that the local structure the local structure is still technically bullish. You know, you zoom out on the 1day time frame and you can see here that this is still we could still be forming another higher low. And we pointed this out in yesterday's live stream. So, yes, I'm discussing whether or not this could be the beginning of the end because my higher time frame analysis suggests that Bitcoin will be dropping over the course of this year.
There was some liquidity to the upside, which we talked about in yesterday's stream, too. Now, shorts are jumping in 30-day time frame. You can see all the way up to 83K. There's this big cluster.
Doesn't mean we have to hit the cluster, right?
All right, guys. Um, why is everything crashing today?
Because everything seems to be overextended. But guys, remember with the stock market, a lot of the times we'll start the day red and we'll end up closing the day green. So, all the yields are up as well. That naturally does not help the overall markets. If we take a look at NASDAQ, little bit of a drop here on the NASDAQ. Um, and naturally, as I said, NASDAQ S&P 500 been outperforming Bitcoin compared to what you would expect to the upside. And now, unfortunately, Bitcoin outperforms or underperforms to the downside, outperforms to the downside, meaning that if stocks do continue to drop, it is within my expectation that Bitcoin will likely drop more.
Guys, I'm not a I'm not a perma bear. I promise you. But the structure for Bitcoin going into these local levels always favored shorts in my opinion. So now we have to see though because locally we could still be forming a higher low. Uh Fuadi, I didn't say I was I mean I was eyeing 83K to add to my existing swing short position. So I have a couple of Bitcoin positions open. I have my swing short, which to remind you guys again how I've been navigating this market. I went short on Bitcoin right here at around $97,000.
Took a lot of profits on the way down, a lot of profits at around $63,000. I did this on the live stream as per one of your recommendations. It was a great recommendation, by the way. Then I added to my existing Bitcoin position because I want to have a verifiable 500K win to share with you guys. Um, and right now it's currently sitting at just over 300K. Then I entered and sorry on that 83K note. I would only consider adding to that position if Bitcoin were to hit my high time frame confluence zone and that would have been up here above the 200 day moving average into the point of control from the tariff range of last year which you guys are probably tired of me talking about at this point and into this anchored VWAP just below $85,000. This was the only level that I was willing to add to my existing position. And because we didn't reach that level, I just hold my position.
So now we see now we see if we can get some buying pressure. Um because if the daily candle closes below 79 below, call it below this wick right here, 787, then it's not very pretty. It wouldn't be a pretty sign. So let's see. We can always bounce up from here.
We can always potentially bounce up from here.
Did it turn green again?
But that okay, China didn't refuse to buy Nvidia uh H200 chips. They effectively said that they'd prefer to try to build their own.
Um so it's not refusing. They don't have to. They don't have to buy it, right?
Morning, bro. Purchase media. Morning.
remember you from the other live stream.
Um, okay. Now is a real test to see the sentiment. Now that we've dumped, do you think that Bitcoin can pump from here?
Because we are at a very critical zone.
There is always a chance that Bitcoin makes a higher low here. Might not seem like it, but look, low, higher low, higher low, higher low.
Potential higher low. What do you think, guys? Are you bullish or bearish?
Usually, if the price is nuking, everyone's bearish. And if the price is pumping, everyone's bullish. But let's see.
Let's see, guys. Trading is all about probabilities, as I say. Um, and to be perfectly honest with a lot of you, I haven't been taking too many positions in the market. I've been just eyeing shorts. Um, so let's see.
Have you checked the stock market today?
Yeah, I have. Stock market is down. And guys, if this continues, naturally, Bitcoin will continue to suffer. But look, there's always a chance, like I said, with the stock market, there's always a chance that what happens is we drop a little bit. Look, we're only down 1%. We drop a little bit and then we just fly right back up. Stock market closes green, new all-time highs for stock. This has happened. How many times have you seen this happen with the stock market? So, I don't want to downplay that. down 1% and this is the risk with risk assets. Stock market down 1%.
Bitcoin as it was just chopping around, you know, down three over 3%.
So, let's see short-term bearish. How is the Zcash short going? The Zcash short is doing fine. I'm currently up around $23,000, but there's no sense in really talking about it because you can see how choppy it's been, right? I'm looking for acceptance below 533 because this is effectively where we held on. And you can see once we reclaimed it, it was significant to the upside to the point where again my trade was in the negative. But I'm a swing trader, so I'm used to these kinds of these kinds of trades, guys. All the trades that you're seeing here, my Zcash short, my bigger Bitcoin short, my Bitcoin scalp short, all of my trades are shared within my community. DM me the keyword CBM on Telegram to be able to join my group. It's where I share all of my own market updates. And it is free because you're trading with your own capital. We have some people trading with 100K, a million dollar, 500K, $500, $1,000. It doesn't matter. Whatever your capital size is, you can get access to that group. Um, you have all the links in the description down below to join any of the exchanges. Lots of bonuses as well.
Bluffin is my go-to, but my recent Bitcoin scalp short um was taken on weeks. So, I I do enjoy their exchange as well.
I believe stock market will correct more than 1.5%.
So, here's the thing. I'm not in I'm not in the business of calling tops for the stock market.
I'm just not. Right. And like I said, if everyone turns extremely bearish here on stocks, then maybe there's a chance we just bounce again because we've seen this play out. Let's not let's not kid ourselves. And I own I own some uh stocks, so let's not kid ourselves.
How many times have you seen this? Down, explosion up, down, explosion up. It's the crash, explosion up, new alltime high. It's the crash, explosion up, alltime high. Stock market still like the structure is still intact. Now, if we start losing these lows here around uh call it 73, then we can start talking about a more local top for stocks. But until then, I'm not in the business of calling tops for the stock market. My main thing is trading the crypto market. And if stocks continue to bleed, Bitcoin will bleed more. That has been my base case. Um, and it continues to be my base case.
And yeah, the bond yields also increasing has a an impact. Uh, mine land India server. Yes. So, in yesterday's live stream, we entered a short trade. I shared it within the community as well. And now I'm just holding the scalp short trade. So, the way that it works with how I typically trade, I often wait till I get favorable price action and then I move my stop loss to break even. So, you can see on this trade so far, I've made around 7K and I'm still holding an unrealized P&L of around 12K. So, yes, I'm playing with the unrealized P&L, but I'm happy I paid myself first. And now if Bitcoin is to spike to $81,500, which is where we effectively entered, well, stopped out at break even. But keep your eyes on this price action because you can see that the stock the uh we hit 10:00 a.m. and right on Q we're getting a bounce for Bitcoin. So just because we had a little bit of a shakeout here, it doesn't mean that it's the end. We could still chop around this range. We can still make a new high.
Just keeping everyone aware of that potential scenario.
Yeah, the yields are skyrocketing, which is naturally not what President Trump wants.
Um, Bitcoin has been scammy. I mean, not really. We talked about how this could be local distribution. Um, and I was just I was pretty patient with my trades here, like holding my existing swing positions and not really doing much else in this markets. So, let's see. Let's see, guys.
Uh, mine land mine landia server didn't.
Damn, I didn't watch the stream yesterday, guys. Yesterday's stream was sick. We had tons of viewers. It was an awesome stream. Um, we had, I think at one point, 600 people all at once and we smashed over 500 likes. Speaking of which, if you haven't already, destroy the like button on this stream.
And we entered a short. So, to answer your question, I I wouldn't be jumping into a short here, guys. It sounds counterintuitive, but you want to enter a short when the price is high, not when the price has already dumped. if that makes sense. A lot of people are just very very eager to enter as the price is dropping and that's not my style of trading. I look for local tops when it comes to shorts and I look for local bottoms when it comes to longs. So in other words, a lot of the times this looks like entering a short as price is going up and entering a long as price is going down, not the reverse. Sounds simple, but you'd be surprised how many people just because they see a red candle, they jump into a max short.
That's not what you want to do. You would like to be positioned from higher.
I'm not going to give a probability number. Sorry. I need to change this YouTube name.
Yeah, I'm tired too, boss.
I'm tired, boss. I'm tired.
Let's see, guys.
So, in my opinion, the riskiest assets will bleed to the less risky assets. So, Bitcoin will effectively bleed to the stock market. It has already been doing so. Stocks will um sorry alts bleed to Bitcoin. Bitcoin bleeds to stocks.
Stocks bleed to gold.
Higher time frame that is. Now we see can we get a nice bounce here for Bitcoin.
Luke Draco entered a short on hype at 46. already took some profits. Put my stop loss at break at trade even or break even, I guess you're trying to say. Now just waiting for my next TP at 41 and next at 38 and little left to see if it goes down more.
Nice, man. There's nothing better than having favorable price action, moving your stop to break even, and then just sitting back because like look, would I be disappointed if my Bitcoin scalp short gets stopped out at break even?
Yeah, of course. I that would suck, you know, because then I'd lose out on $12,000 in profit. But because I've already taken profit, it's just something that you accept as a trader.
Stop to break even risk-free.
I don't really care. I've I've performed very very well in this market over the past few months um over the past few years in crypto specifically from spot and trading perspective. So I um I'm pretty content.
And this is just a scalp position. So it is relatively smaller compared to my other positions.
I don't think the price action is that tiresome. It really depends because like as you know I've been more bearish than most on this uptrend and it's like I hold some swing shorts but I haven't been like balls to the wall short yet.
But now I I've started to to scale in a little bit more with altcoin shorts and things like that.
I got a new light here, so it should be a little bit better. Um, guys, with the live streams now, I'm noticing Yeah, a Stretch is a massive Ponzi. We We've already established this, right guys? Um, Stretch, look, it will work until it no longer works. They bought almost 10 billion. So 10 billion 10,000 bitcoins yesterday. 9,000. That's pretty damn insane. And now you can see that obviously it's dropping like it's not at par anymore. Um so it was a huge huge day yesterday. And we had the Clarity Act. Everyone was bullish. Uh Clarity Act voting, but again that's just the beginning of the process. It could take a while until it it ends up on uh President Trump's desk to be able to sign.
So, good morning, young lad. Good morning to yourself. Uh Sean Bulldog, I'm tired, boss.
I remember titling one of my videos that. So now we see like I there's there's not much for me to do. This is the point of looking for these opportunities, guys. I entered a short. I shared it on the last live stream, but I I shared it in my community first as always. Price went up a little bit afterwards, but um now now I'm just effectively being patient.
Um if you want access to all of my trades, you know where to find me. If you DM me the keyword CBM on Telegram, it is free, you get access to my group and you're trading with your own capital.
Thoughts on Pal's last day impact? I don't I I don't think that this is like a big um a big deal.
The one thing that we must consider is that every single time, every single time that we've had a new Fed chair, Bitcoin has dropped massively. Now, not that I need any more confluence to share with you guys in terms of my higher time frame analysis, but it is something for us to consider.
So, in the chat right now, let me know if you want me to show you the price action after every single new Fed chair term. Let me know and I'm happy to go through it with you. And uh yeah, I'll I'll show you guys. Let me know.
H Purchase Media, you're funny. If you don't know what Purchase Media is saying, he's asking me.
He's asking me what signals are we looking for uh for a local top being in other than a new Drake song. And the reason he's saying this because Drake's album, new album just came out. And uh he talked about Bitcoin in one of his second verses.
And I just posted this morning before we had the dump. Local top.
Pretty funny stuff. Guys, if you want to follow me on Twitter, it's crypto bymatsure. Uh, be careful. There's a lot of impersonators and scammers. You have it in the description down below if that interests you. I post from time to time.
I'm not ridiculously active on there, but you click this link down below. You can connect with me on Twitter if that interests you. But, uh, pretty funny, guys. It's pretty funny how this how this works.
I think a lot of people think I think a lot of people um hated Jerome Pal just because it was like a popular thing to do. But guys, the the difficulty that his job entails, we we can't ignore that. We cannot ignore that. You know, maximum employment and and price stability is a difficult job because you're you're fighting two things at once. You want the unemployment rate to remain low. You want inflation to remain low, but you can't effectively cut rates in this kind of with these kinds of inflationary pressures. And we saw that inflation came in much higher than expected. The market kind of just shrugged it off for a couple days. Now we see we see what happens next.
Typically, Bitcoin reacts worse than the stock market and reacts first.
So, we're in the trade from yesterday.
Okay. So, you guys want to Yeah, but it's over the long term. It's over the long term, like higher time frame that I think, for example, that stocks will bleed to gold. Higher time frame, but all those damn job numbers are fake.
They revise it down every time. They may revise it down every time, but they're still higher than the than the previous ones. Or you're talking about the unemployment rate or jobs.
Anyways, all right. Let's take a look at what happened every single time we had a new Fed chair. Look, look, look with stocks. This is what I was saying.
Stocks can continue to climb up the wall of worry. We gap down. Now look, now look. So, this is what I'm saying.
Bitcoin can pop back up if stocks continue to pop back up, but I would expect that the second that stocks get a more severe downtrend. It's uh it's GG's for Bitcoin and that's why I've been leaning more short. You can see stocks gapped a little bit back up already and Bitcoin is kind of just staying at the same level. We need more buyers for Bitcoin. The Clarity Act has not passed.
This was yesterday. We were just watching some of the voting. um the amendments, these kinds of things. So, let's take a look at it. Let's take a look at what happened every single time we had a new Fed chair.
I think you guys will find this highly interesting.
Please bear with me because I don't know the dates off the top of my head. I'll have to pull out pull up my um my claude.
Let's get a new Bitcoin chart going.
We'll go weekly actually.
So, this one we had the whole guys remember what we talked about in one of the other live streams, the whole May 6th thing. Technically, right now May 6th is still the local top. Let's see. I would honestly prefer if we sweep up some liquidity to the upside because then I would add to my shorts. But, uh, for now, you know, we're not in control.
We can't we can't pick and choose. So, let's take a look at it. Can anyone actually instead of me pulling up my AI because I've already searched it up, can anyone give me the dates that we've had uh new Fed chairs, give me the dates and I will add them to the chart.
Come on, guys. No one's giving No one's No one's sending those dates over.
Can anyone be a true champ and send me those dates? Otherwise, I'll just pull up my um my conversation with Claude.
actual dates, guys. Otherwise, I'll just pull it up. It's fine.
Okay. So, I have here, we'll start in 2014.
I have Janette Yelen. Start date February 1st, 2014.
So, let's take a look at it. February 1st, 2014.
February 1st. We'll have to go on the daily to really uh catch this accurately. Oops.
February 1st, 2014. February 1st, 2014.
Let's delete some of this.
Um, February 1st, 2014.
February 1st, 2014.
Awesome, guys.
Thank you.
So, February 1st, 2014.
Let's do this together, guys. So, you can see February 1st, 2014, from here to the bottom, we dropped another 81%.
I'm not calling for this to be perfectly clear, but it it's just the resemblance is is uh we can't ignore this this price action and what happens. Maybe it's just coincidence.
Then we have Jerome Powell on February 5th, 2018.
February 5th, 2018.
February 5th, 2018.
Look, nice little pump.
But what happened after?
So first term.
So we got that.
From that point on, we had a nice rally.
That's a good rally. But I I was comparing this rally already to the local price action. I think that it's pretty different. But that with that being said, we still dropped another like 60% from there to the bare market bottom.
Then we have Jerome Pal's second term because we'll we'll keep that uh we'll consider that as well which is May 23rd, 2022. This is according to my AI. Maybe it's wrong. You guys can correct me.
It's probably relatively close, I would imagine. Um, May 23rd, 2022.
May 23rd, March, April, May 23rd.
And this looks more like the local price action where we are today.
And remember, we made the May 6th comparison because so far the local top for now has been May 6. Maybe we pump up a little bit more. Only time will tell.
But you got this down to here. It's another approximately just under 50% drop.
Then we have Kevin Worsh, which is today, right? That's today, I believe. So, let's see, guys. So, we've been dropping, you know, less and less each time, but there was still a drop regardless. And my base case for the Bitcoin bare market. As I've shown you this chart before, Bitcoin draw downs from all-time highs, right? Typically, the draw downs are less and less severe, but not by this much. So I don't think that the 50% draw down is the end. I think that at the very least we sweep that level likely below it if history is to repeat or if history is to rhyme. And so what this would look like is you could see the draw downs 93 85 84 77. So it's getting less and less severe. I would say considering that last cycle we dropped around 77%.
I would personally think that the draw down from all-time high, which I'll remind you we've dropped approximately 52%.
Will be somewhere between 60 and 65%.
Probably it it could also be more than that if we really get some some horrible selling pressure.
Regardless, below 60K is where I personally start stacking some Bitcoin for the long term.
Remember, nothing that I discuss on the channel should be construed as financial advice. But we went through the new Fed chairs. I'm telling you how I'm playing it. I'm telling you how I'm being patient. We've seen other bare markets.
This rally, guys, believe it or not, this rally, this 40% rally, is not even the biggest bare market rally we've had.
We've had more significant ones. And the the most common example is this one over here in 2022 that I've constantly compared it to. 45% rally, guys. So, Bitcoin could even go higher than here.
Maybe that's not it. Maybe we just end up getting a move to the upside. People maybe um start aggressively shorting from here and then maybe we create some liquidity to grab and and then we drop lower. But my higher time frame analysis remains the same.
And yeah, I hope you guys enjoyed that Fed chair analysis. The thing that we must also consider is I would much prefer if people started buying the dip because the more and more buying pressure, sorry not buying, longing the dip. Buying from a spot portfolio perspective, if institutions start buying big, then naturally that is way more positive for the price. But if we start to see people going aggressively into longs after this correction because they believe that, hey, Bitcoin like we're entering a new paradigm, the four-year cycle is dead, and people start buying these these dips um aggressively from a leveraged longing perspective. That for me is positive because it gives more leverage for the markets to flush out. Remember, in order to make profits in the market, you're probably you are trading against someone else. So, yes, I've been bearish, but for my bearish thesis to play out, unfortunately, there's going to have to be a lot of longs that get wrecked. You know, that's how the markets work.
So, let's see.
Uh, JTrader 101. Uh, I only went to 2014 because, you know, we we don't have the Bitcoin may have not Bitcoin wasn't around prior to some of these uh terms. I think it depends on the 200 day SMA if we it does depend but we've had scenarios where basically the 200 day moving average in 2014 we got above it.
So if I go back to 2014 we got above it. Check this out. So we broke above the bull market support band and we hovered around this area. So for me, my personal thoughts in this market, as I always have to remind you, this massive confluence zone, in my opinion, between the 200 day moving average, so above it, and up to $85,000 into this point of control, which also was the golden pocket from the pivot.
Feels like I'm repeating myself on this stream, but that's okay. Um, I know there's a lot of new people. So, from here to here, it's right in between both levels. So, there's a lot of confluence at that zone.
Got that 12-hour order block, too. Like, it's there's a lot, right? To me, based on my own system, I have to short from up here if we are to make it there. I have to um I don't make the rules.
So I I I genu like it's almost like no-brainer. But because there is so much confluence, I also talked about the fact that there is uh yeah, trading is a doggy dog world. 100% doggy dog world.
Um because there's so much confluence out there and the market makers are aware of that. I was also entertaining the possibility that maybe we don't even hit the zone because the amount of people.
So, if you look on the timeline, there's I would say it's 50/50 bullish and bearish. However, I want to say 50% of the bearish side is bearish, but they're expecting Bitcoin to go between 82 to up to $85,000 into this big confluence zone. Moreover, here they were expecting above 83K up to 86k. That was a big zone for the bears.
So, people were bearish, but they were open to the possibility of Bitcoin moving higher. And of course, so was I.
But if half of the bears also think that Bitcoin is going to go higher and they're waiting to enter their short positions and they're not looking to play this local price action, well, maybe there's a chance that we just drop and we don't even hit the big confluence zones. You know, it's little bit of 4D chess, 5D chess.
Um, just my thoughts. I could be totally wrong here, but I just play the markets from a probability probabilistic perspective and I was always looking for shorts, particularly on this move up because we're seeing as well that the volume has been declining. So yeah, Sailor Sailor the hero is buying a crap ton of Bitcoin, but guys, if there's no other market participants, no other big big players looking to buy tons of Bitcoin, it's it's going to top out from around this zone in my opinion. So, let's see. Maybe we get a squeeze up because we do have some liquidity to the upside, which I highlighted in my community as well. This is why if we get above these levels and we grab this liquidity, again, it's a potential no-brainer short for me.
Um, daily RSI is bearish.
This is what I'm saying. Uh, God, not dog. Um, just reading your username. Do you think it can still go to 85K? And this is the comment that I've been getting across my live streams, too. So, there are some bears saying, "Yep, the four cycle will play out. We're going to push to 86K, 85K, and I'm going to enter a massive short." What if you don't get that opportunity? because everyone's kind of eyeing shorts here. Everyone's, you know, are we going to squeeze up?
And so for me, from my own perspective, I am happy to lose money attempting the short at lower levels in case those levels aren't even hit.
Make sense? Because it's worth it because once the drop likely occurs, in my opinion, it will be a strong and significant drop.
So that's how I'm playing it, guys.
In my short from yesterday, in my scalp short from yesterday, in my higher uh swing short, I'm also shorting Zcash, which is currently up around $25,000.
All of these trades that you're seeing here shared within my community. Um, completely free. First link in the description down below. If that interests you, DM me the keyword CBM on Telegram to be able to join my private group. And I'm very, you know, you can't you can't catch every move. But from a swing trading perspective, which if you didn't know, swing trading effectively means that you're holding positions longer in this market. You're targeting bigger moves. I hold positions for multiple days, multiple weeks sometimes.
I'm happy with how I played the market, especially starting the bare market. I absolutely smashed it. And this isn't just me talking out of my ass. You guys can uh attest to this, especially if you're in my community or you've been on the YouTube channel. I get a lot of hate for it, but um especially when I'm bearish and people are bullish.
I shorted Bitcoin at around $123,000.
We dropped, took a lot of profits down to the low 100K zone.
Then I was pretty flat between 100K down to around this 80K zone. Kind of just waiting to see what the market would do.
I I took a couple scalps here and theres but in ter here and there but in terms of big positions didn't take that many.
Then here I went long on Bitcoin at around $83,000 and we caught a very very nice rally here. A bare market relief rally and you get multiple bare market relief rallies. took lots of profits, multiple six figures on this one. And then I went giga short at $97,000. But again, I'm not going to paint it as if it was like there weren't many attempts.
There were multiple attempts on big swing short positions. So, I took a couple where I ended up getting stopped out at break even after taking some profits. So, you see this little scalp trade that I'm in for Bitcoin. Well, it was similar to that, but they were bigger positions getting stopped out at break even after taking some profits.
So, basically, you leave the position with money in your pocket and you look for another attempt. And that's what I did multiple times.
Uh where's the chart now? Where is it?
That's what I did multiple times here. I even got stopped out once and I lost $10,000 on a short trade here. However, you guys have probably heard me talk about this enough. I caught literally all of this move, which mind you is a 36% up to 40% crash with leverage. So, I made a few hundred on the way up in the bare market relief rally. I made a few hundred on the way down. Of course, there's a couple of losing positions here and there, but the the bigger positions that I've taken in this market have thus far played out, and my losses are far less than my wins. And then the only regret that I have, which I shared in one of the previous live streams, is right here.
I talked about a longing opportunity within my community at $65,000 for Bitcoin. Unfortunately, I didn't enter that trade. There's some members in the group that entered it based on the analysis and caught the ride up. Now, I think that we are closer to a local top depending on how this price action develops, but this is one of those things where I'll probably keep on attempting it as well.
So, yeah, that's a summary. Um, that's a summary.
Guys, stop shilling other YouTubers in the um in my live stream.
Stop shilling other YouTubers because I will just basically uh block you. The LeBron of whatever this is. I I wouldn't go that far. I have made mistakes. I will make mistakes again. um I will lose money again. But if your wins greatly exceed your losses, that's how you approach the market, right?
So, let's see. Let's see what happens with this local price action. We entered the short at around $81,500.
We had a nice move to the downside.
Let's hold local support here. I want to personally see longs jumping into the market. I would love to see longs jumping into the market so we can flush them out because that would give more fuel to the potential downside.
So, this is what I'm eyeing. If this will load.
Okay. Okay. We got a couple of longs jumping in here.
We got a couple of longs jumping in.
That's okay.
Hey sir, you owe me a cookie. I do owe you a cookie. I remember you, Nick Tuni.
You called the local bottom. But we just did. We sweep your local bottom.
We did. We swept your local bottom.
It would be typical Bitcoin fashion to sweep the local bottom here and then just pump higher and then everyone's like, well [ __ ] But with how I am seeing longs kind of jumping into the market here, um the liquidity on the higher time frame still relatively healthy, although there are some shorts. So I wouldn't downplay a move potentially up to here again.
Let's see. Let's see, guys.
What more can I say?
Patience.
Uh, leverage is irrelevant. I've said it once and I'll say it again. It's all about the capital that you're risking.
So, you can use a gazillionx leverage if you prefer. Um, as long as the capital that you're risking in proportion to your trading portfolio is a reasonable amount. And by reasonable, my personal uh strategy is between 1 and 5% of my trading portfolio per trade. 5% like anything 3 to 5% is when I'm happy to size into some bigger positions.
Anything um anything below 3 to 5% is just, you know, a typical position. A lot of people will recommend no more than three. A lot of people will say 1% 1% is totally fine. It just depends on what risk you're willing to take.
But more often than not, when I've taken a trade with 3 to 5% of my trading portfolio, it has worked out. And therefore, um I'm content with that because 3 to 5% is a big position for me.
And it's um it's the edge. Let's say I don't want to risk more. It's the edge for me.
Sailor ain't pumping today because Sailor can no longer pump today.
He did all his pumping yesterday where he bought over 9,000 bitcoins.
Higher leverage means more fees. That's also valid. I but to me it's, you know, I play around with both. Um, and it's it's like that for sure. What if you only have $100 available for trading?
would you risk more? Okay, so this is an interesting predicament. That's a good question because when I started trading and some of you guys were asking about my journey, how I trade this market, how I got to where I am today, what I'm what am I doing here? Um, when I started with a little bit less capital, I had reoccurring income. And so to be perfectly honest with you guys, I always had more than $100 to trade because I was working a job as well. And the job was effectively funding my trading.
That being said, when I had less capital, I wasn't necessarily following my risk uh management parameters.
So, you know, take it with a grain of salt, but I would highly recommend that you follow your own risk management uh protocol within reason and just don't risk more than you can afford to lose. Because if you only have a $100 portfolio, you know, you it would be devastating to lose that $100, right?
And so I can I can definitely understand where you're coming from, but you also want to see bigger P&Ls. Um, and and I get that. So, it really depends. It really depends. And then I got questions about paper trading. Guys, I would not recommend using demo or paper trading because if you don't have skin in the game, it's hard to replicate it when you're actually using your real money.
It's much better to take small losses with real money than to take unlimited losses and unlimited fake wins with paper trading.
Nick Tuni. Uh yes sir, I did I did open the short on the stream yesterday. So Nick Tuni, I have a community uh for free where I share my trades and obviously they take priority because anything outside of my YouTube channel is is found within that group. So I posted in my community saying, "Hey guys, I'm taking a trade. Sharing it with you first before the stream, then a couple minutes after I said that I was going to take a short uh on the stream."
So we took it on the stream. Average entry $81,500. It's just a a scalp trade. It's not my biggest trade. Um, those of you that have been in my group for a while or that's been following the channel know uh what my big trades look like, but looks pretty solid thus far.
And guys, if you're looking for exchanges to trade on, I recommend the ones in the description down below. I like Bluffin as my go-to. Weeks is also a great option. And they have a new promotion where you can earn $30,000 in welcome bonuses plus an email and phone number coupon. So basically all you have to do is sign up with me, connect your email and your phone number, and you can get up to $10 to $100 for free to trade with. Um they also have great deposit bonuses, and based on your overall trading, you can earn up to $15,000 in rewards.
Bluffin is my go-to, as I like to say, and I like to use weeks as well. I like to spread my money out across a couple of a couple of them, but most is on bluffing.
Oh, okay. I'm in your Telegram group, but it said only that you closed 30% of your short. Yeah, exactly. So, if you take a look at my Telegram group now, um I closed Sorry, I'm just reading other comments.
So, if you're in my Telegram group now, I mentioned in my group that I closed 30% of my existing trade and then I closed another 25% because we're at local support.
So, what this means is, and if you're confused about local support, basically here.
So, I want to see how the 4-hour candle closes because this if this just starts getting bought up, that could be the low before Bitcoin moves higher.
So, we swept up these lows. This to me was a great TP zone.
So, I took some more profits off the table, moved my stop to break even, and now I'm just uh I'm just chilling.
But guys, it's still if we lose this on the daily, then we can start talking about lower targets. But for now, for now, I have to say it looks okay. Even though it feels like a devastating crash.
Crypto sleeper, are you sponsored by these platforms? I personally use the platforms with my own money and I do have affiliate links in the description down below as I shared. You can read everything down below. Um, you also have the disclaimer here saying that I am not a financial adviser. I'm just a guy on the internet sharing all of his own personal trades and his overall market analysis.
Let's see. Bitcoin trying to hold here, guys. This is a crucial zone as well because 794 is where Bitcoin effectively created that local double top and we dropped down to 75.
So, you want to see if you're bearish, you want to see closes below this level. You also want to see closes below uh 787, which so far it's just a wick, right?
Turned bullish.
I opened a long from here.
Sir, I know you don't analyze gold, but what's your view for the upcoming months? Oh, I actually discussed this in my latest live stream. Uh, it was a it was quite straightforward, but I'll repeat myself.
I think that gold is in a macro uptrend.
And can we have drops along the way?
Yes. But personally, I would consider even entering a potential long if we hit that 200 day moving average. But for the most part, I think that this can just continue to crawl up.
My thoughts could be wrong here. My edge is in crypto, but for the most part, like I'm not going to fade such a such a nice rally for gold.
I think we can climb higher. Bullish on gold.
Any thoughts on doing lifestyle vlogs? Would be cool to see. I have thought about it, but we've had this discussion in the live stream as well. I just don't know how many of you would actually be interested in my life outside of trading crypto. Like I know a lot of you just watch me for the market analysis and I don't want to put out content that no one gives a crap about, right? And basically all I just don't know. I know a lot of people try to do these these kinds of things. I think that ultimately uh silver will bleed against gold. Uh Mina gratitude meaning I would much prefer to hold uh a position in in gold compared to silver. Several governments beg their citizens to not buy any more gold. It means that their central banks want to buy it all. Rick Thai. Exactly.
Um what was I saying? Yeah. A lot of a lot of rich individuals like to show off their life with these big live streams and stuff, these big vlog vlog channels where oh in my Rolls-Royce and these kinds of things, but I'm a pretty simple guy. Like outside of trading the markets and doing these live streams, I play football or soccer if you're in America. Um I go to the gym and I love tennis. I I play a lot of tennis. So basically in my free time sports very very competitive guy.
Um yeah pretty simple. So I don't know if you guys would want to watch me play sports really. So the same happened in 97 and gold 25x exactly RTI. I think gold is in a macro uptrend. I think it can go higher. Uh not financial advice of course.
I entered a hedge long here.
Smart. Let's see. Let's see.
You can see here that there are some people entering longs, right?
The issue is if this starts creating another low.
No Bugatti flexing. Thanks.
Uh, are you a decent tennis player?
I would say I'm starting to get decent.
I played for approximately two years.
Um, and then I ended up in Dubai. I ended up getting a coach because I really wanted to get better. I'm really really good at chasing.
So like if someone's hitting it in the corners and stuff, I'm really solid in terms of like my stamina to be able to run after the ball like a like a golden retriever almost. Um and now my hits are getting much better. Much much better.
Really I I like the slice. I'm really really cheeky with those drop shots at the front. Um, clay or hardcourt?
Mainly, I mean, when I'm in Canada, mainly it's been uh hardcore. Dubai as well. It's been hardcore mainly. But Clay is sick.
I'm actually visiting a buddy of mine in Spain this summer. Uh, you guys know him maybe, Andy, the trader from Minepillar Markets. And I think that there's more there's there's a solid option of clay clay quartz in Spain.
Ferrari is starting to accept Bitcoin as a payment. Sweet.
If you start a vlog, you will have one thing in common with these awful crypto influencers. With all due respect, please don't. Maybe that's a Maybe that's a valid thing. Maybe I just don't do it. It is kind of I have to be honest, guys. It is. It's pretty nice to um have my life outside of crypto. Kind of personal.
Europe is mostly clay. Sweet. When I was a kid, I thought I was a decent tennis player. Then I went into a tournament and got destroyed by way more experienced player. That totally destroyed my morale. Yeah, I I'm sure I would get absolutely cooked by people that have been playing their whole lives. But I you know, it's one of those sports along with golf that you can play well into your old age. And so I want to get very very good at it. Um yeah. Okay guys, so 1 hour close is in in approximately 30 seconds. This doesn't give that much clarity. I mean we got a decent bounce from the $78,700 range. I would say that for me this isn't quite a clear trade setup because yeah, we got the bounce, but I would rather wait for higher time frame closes here. There is not that much clarity. We got tons of volume coming in from the selling pressure. And so to me, this could suggest that we start the impulsive move to the downside. So I don't want to jump into a long quite yet. This is a big big uh volume candle. Just for perspective with the clarity act, everyone when I was live streaming yesterday, everyone was talking about the crazy pump that we got in the volume, but look how much bigger this sell volume was than this volume to the upside. So, let's see.
Could take a while to play out. Maybe over the course of today, we just um we just chop around. Let's see.
Was that the bottom?
That's a good question.
I am printing on Zcash.
I I have I think that I might make a good amount with this trade. Um Chop Summer.
Oh, I was talking about um I was talking about that's not it.
X that out.
I notice now that I do live streams, now that I do live streams, my video updates get way less views. So, I'm not sure if you guys just prefer the live streams or it's just how the YouTube alggo works, but yesterday's live stream was a banger, guys. Um, I think it's over 7,000 views. And keep in mind, I have 17,000 subs, so it's really, really a good ratio.
I read some comments up there about pickle ball. Uh guys, my opinion of pickle ball, it's fun. It's something I play with with um with the girlfriends, but and and with family members, but I feel like pickle ball, it's kind of a sport for like people that can't really play tennis in my opinion. Don't want to offend anyone. I love to play it um with friends and family, but when it comes to like true fun competitiveness, I'd much rather play tennis.
Yeah, I've played paddle once or twice.
Um might be a bad move, but I opened a Zcash long a few minutes ago at 521.
Are you monetized on YouTube? Uh good question. I am technically monetized, but I don't have any ads on my channel.
So, I'm making zero from YouTube. I don't need the money from ads really.
Um, with the views that we're getting, maybe it's a few thousand per month, so maybe it's silly for me to not be monetized, but I'm okay. I'm okay.
Nah, the video updates are still fire.
Do we have a big time frame red candle?
Well, let's see how the 4 hour closes, right? This is a nice one hour. I would imagine that if we have one more hour until that 4-hour candle. If the 4hour candle closes below 787, that would be um that would be a strong strong 4hour candle. But the crazy part is I was saying that this right here, this right here on the stream we covered a couple days ago, this was a very strong 4-hour candle. And look, whoop, right back up. So, take it with a grain of salt. I think the market makers are going to play games around this range. I think they're going to bait longs. They're going to bait shorts. They're going to do everything they can to extract as much liquidity from the market as possible.
How much are you earning from exchange referrals? Thank you for all the value you provide. Um, in terms of my own earnings, I would much prefer whether it's trading crypto, my spot portfolio, um, what I earn in terms of exchange referrals, what I earn outside of my other businesses, these are the kind of things that I like to keep to myself and I don't like to share with people. Um, so with the trades that you're seeing here on the channel, you can probably tell that I'm doing pretty well and I'll just leave it at that. But when it comes to, for example, updates of my spot portfolio and things like that. Um, I like to al always use like a percentage.
So I'll share the percentage within my premium group, but I don't actually share the exact dollar amounts of my spot portfolio, my stock market holdings. Um, if I get into real estate, like I I'd rather keep this on the low, if that makes sense.
How old are you, brother? 206.
We had a bit of options to expire and mostly calls. It's the computer that do this. We are watching the AI war go down.
Not sure why Binance was buying yesterday to dump today.
That is true. The liquidity is upside, guys. Take this. Take Check this out.
We have liquidity to the upside. Let me refresh this so it fits my screen. Look at that. Strong liquidity to the upside.
24hour. Then we go 7-day, one week.
Strong liquidity to the upside. But where it starts to get interesting is two weeks beyond. I believe you can see that most of the liquidity starts piling up to the downside.
Um, and remember we don't have to grab either side of the liquidity.
AV Creations 2494.
Um, no reason you shouldn't earn some commissions as you're providing a valuable service. Thank you. I appreciate it. And uh like I said, the way that it works with these affiliate exchanges, and I talk about it on stream when you guys ask, I have no issues sharing this. I don't know why people um shy away from it, is I earn a tiny a tiny percentage of the fees generated on the exchange, the the fees that people would be paying anyways. So, let's say you enter a trade and you pay a $5 fee, just as an example. Well, that $5 goes to any exchange that you use. It doesn't matter which exchange, they all have fees. um I earn a percentage, a tiny portion of that um from the exchange themselves. So, it's not costing you more to sign up with my links. It supports me, of course, and I really do appreciate it. And it is a requirement to be able to join my free group, but you'd be paying those fees anyways. Um so, happy to happy to elaborate on that for you guys. Bro, would you trade hype?
I think hype is going to be a pretty solid long-term one, but if Bitcoin is to move lower, I I I'd rather wait on that. Best and honest advice if you were starting from scratch today. Best and honest advice if I was starting from scratch today, I would say keep your full-time job and use it as a funding source for your trading.
And I know it sounds overly simplistic, but there's a lot of people that will message me on Telegram and effectively say something along the lines of, "I have $100 to my name and I need to make it trading." And unfortunately, my response is often, well, first I think it's important that you get a job to be able to have more capital to use towards the market. then you can worry about trading. It's it's annoying to hear, but guys, it's just it's just uh the truth of the matter. Like, I wouldn't have been able to get to where I am without using my job as a supplementary income to fund my trading.
When I first started, my fund was like $1,000, but I kept on adding to it. I had a pretty good monthly income before I started trading. Like I said, don't just go all into trading without any reoccurring income. That's in my opinion, that's a horrible decision to make.
Not financial advice. You can do what you want, but this is this was my path at least.
So trading over buying spot. I've only been buying spot. I It really depends, right? Like I think that's because it's a tricky predicament, right? trading can can potentially be beneficial to people with less capital because as you stack your wins with proper risk management, you end up making more than than spot.
I like spot when you get to a point where you have a lot of capital and you can just, you know, buy call it like tens of thousands of dollars worth of worth of crypto and if it does a 2x or 3x like that's pretty significant trading I prefer when you start with lower capital but now I'm at a point where my spot portfolio is significantly larger than my trading portfolio and I'm at a point where I'm not going to really add to my trading portfolio like I'm happy with the risk I'm taking on my trades I'm happy with the losses that I take when I trade and so there's No need for me to add more to that pot, if that makes sense.
Opinion on investing in Micro Strategy as Bitcoin goes up. Guys, we talked about this in the previous live stream.
I just don't see why I would buy Micro Strategy when I can own the underlying asset that they are betting on as a company, Bitcoin.
All these treasury companies, the Bitcoin miners even, I think that they bleed to Bitcoin over time. Overtime.
Uh, Kaiser Ramir, I am banning you from the chat because you've been just promoting this other crappy YouTube channel. Um, hide user. Goodbye.
Yeah, stretches a we might be headed back to $80,300 today perhaps. Yeah, it's entirely possible, guys. 100%.
Thanks for tuning in again. Girl has it all. your your name is very familiar so I can I can easily remember it especially if I do a live stream uh regularly.
How are we doing in terms of the likes?
I have not begged you guys for likes yet.
Let's see 171. Let me just pull it up. Can we smash that like button, legends?
Can we just annihilate the like button?
Get all of your different YouTube accounts and just destroy that like button.
I would really appreciate it. I would really appreciate it.
If we do go up to 83K, it'll be very brief tap in my opinion. Yeah, let's see. We like there's just a huge cluster, right? And from my perspective, being a little bit bearish at the top of this range and still thinking that this is a bare market relief rally, it's in my best interest to grab this upside liquidity, which is where I would add to my existing swing short. But like we discussed, like we discussed, guys, it's all a game of probabilities, and sometimes you got to play a little bit of 5D chess. This is why I entered my short before hitting this confluence zone in the event that we just don't hit it. Sometimes we just don't hit it. So let's see. It is in my best interest for people to go aggressively long as I am shorting. But if everyone thinks that the dump is coming, there's a chance we literally just hold here and push to the highs again. Daily candle close today will be important. weekly candle close will be important because yesterday's or yesterday's last week's weekly candle for Bitcoin was a massive green candle all the way up to $82,000.
Like I remember we were hovering around here and then we just had a nice spike going into the weekly close and we're thinking, okay, this is going to be a bullish week and so far it's been red, but you never know. We could just we could just reverse over the course of the weekend. So, I don't know, guys. I don't know. I just take my trades step by step. See how the market develops.
4hour candle close.
A a decent 4hour candle close would be below from the bare bearish perspective would be below $79,400.
From the bullish perspective would be above $7,9400 because that would suggest that we just swept some liquidity and then we're we're potentially going right back up. And the best possible scenario for the bears would be getting closes below here.
$78,700.
Let's see.
We have no volume and spot is low. That tells you to get out. Well, this is what I was saying on the channel, guys. Like when you get a really big rally, you you really really really I have to stop saying really really really when you get a strong uptrend like this in a bare market to be really bullish, you would like to see the volume increasing, not decreasing. And as you can see by this arrow, the volume has been decreasing. So in the last time that we formed this range for Bitcoin where we had a nice rally and we took advantage of this with a long, the volume was again decreasing. And where was the biggest spike of volume?
You guessed it, the selling. So we could be gearing up for something like this where the selling volume just picks up.
But we have to see how the local price action reacts beforehand. There's a chance that these market makers push us right back up.
And that's why my stop loss is at break even on the Bitcoin short trade that we took yesterday in my community and on the live stream other than crypto. Is there anything else you're into or interested? I believe you're not currently into real estate. I've discussed real estate, right? The only thing with real estate is it can potentially be a burden. I like to be liquid, right?
So, it depends.
But from a trading perspective, you guys were also asking about the stock market and things like that. And I'm a long-term stockholder, but I don't I'm not I don't trade it that much.
Sometimes I do when I see good opportunities like if gold precious metals here we're talking about if gold is to hit its 200 day moving average because we're getting acceptance below the bull market support band. I am more than willing to bet on the fact that this trend will continue for gold.
This is a weekly time frame. So you guys probably get annoyed with this. You you scalpers out there. Um but I think that this could potentially hold.
So, I'd be maybe taking a cheeky leverage trade there.
Um, let's see how the stock market's doing now because Bitcoin's kind of just holding fine.
Are stocks just right back up as we normally are? Is that Did the prediction come true where we're just going to go and create a new all-time high for stocks while Bitcoin dumps?
Tell me. Yeah, it doesn't look that bad.
Look at that.
There's some buyers.
There's some buyers.
threehour green candle. I don't I don't look at three-hour candles stocks, but I'm interested in macroeconomic factors, employment numbers, rate hikes, and stuff that can mess up my portfolio and this AI bubble.
I think that it's it's tough because on one hand you can think that these valuations for AI companies are astronomical and then when you hear oh gosh what was the what was the company that that came up on my Twitter feed? I think it was like a shoe company that rebranded to an AI company and their valuation just skyrocketed and their stock just absolutely flew to the upside. That's when you start to see signs of like a potential bubble. But it's hard to call the top of a bubble.
And on the flip side, for the bulls, I want to make the argument that guys, AI is absolutely insane. The things that you can do with AI nowadays, and it's it's progressing so quickly. I use it in my everyday life. So, it makes you think like, well, is it really overvalued? If money is just a madeup concept, is it really just overvalued like that? Right?
All birds So yeah, but employment numbers, you can see the unemployment rate pretty high up there, but nothing too crazy. Inflation coming in higher than expected. These things take a while to play out.
Go Zcash. Go.
Drop it, baby.
This is the thing. It's It's always important to zoom out, right?
We could just be forming another uh higher low before popping up. So, I'm I have my eyes on the confluence zone.
Let's see. I'm in my trades. My positions are protected. I'm chilling.
What leverage do you normally use? I usually use like on my swing positions.
You can see here on Zcash, I'm literally using 3x. Um, but this is a big trade for me, right?
On my scalps, I usually use more leverage because I want to take advantage of the the quick moves in the market. Um, and I'm less obviously you're less patient with scalps.
Um, how's life in Dubai? I'm from Spain and want to move to a tax friendly country, but I have a 5-year-old kid and also I love nature. Don't know if I would fit there for long.
So, here's the thing. That's the only downside in my opinion uh of Dubai. It's it's very safe. Anything you want to do, you can do there. Literally anything, including skiing and snowboarding, which is pretty crazy. Um, but I'm not the biggest fan of the nature and I think they're trying to do some things to to improve that that facet.
There are little communities where there's trees and parks and things like that, but for the most part, I have to say that when I come back to Canada and I'm really um thrown back into nature, like when I go on beautiful hikes and things like that, it's just a whole different feeling. So, that's like the only downside, right?
What's your logic behind the candle picks?
Sorry, what do you mean my logic behind the candle hours?
So, the logic which I can explain. I guess this is what you're asking about.
Correct me if I'm wrong.
The reason why I'm eyeing these lines on the chart, these bottom yellow lines, 79,300 or $400 give or take and 78,700s because 78,700 is the local low that we printed yesterday before having that nice green candle on the daily.
So lose this level with candle closes below it especially on the daily and it would suggest further downside is to come. Now these levels are even more important arguably because it's where we had a double top and Bitcoin had a decent drop from this high to the low of approximately you know just under 6%.
So, if we can confirm back above these candles, then that would suggest to me that maybe the probabilities favor a local bottom from around this zone before Bitcoin can move up. But either way, from a trading perspective, like these are I'm looking at daily candles now. On the 4hour time frame on the live stream, we entered we entered a short on Bitcoin because it it looked it looked toppy. I wasn't buying the whole Clarity Act move. And now we see we see how the price action develops.
What's your opinion on Bitcoin in a world of AI and robotics? I think that it will thrive.
Think of it. How will how will AI uh transact?
You need uh you need identification to be able to open up a bank account.
So, what way could AI transact with each other?
What form of payment would AI use?
Probably crypto, Bitcoin.
I see more a downside. 78K Roth trader.
Yeah, it's possible. I mean, we already dropped to 78 78 point high 78s.
Bitcoin $1 million by 2030.
um possible.
I believe in Bitcoin long term. That's all I will really say.
Distinguished gentlemen, we meet again.
Yes, we do. Carolina Kuck.
You guys like the background?
Got the little Bitcoin. Got the little Bitcoin logo.
My macro outlook is that if inflation remains sticky and the unemployment rate continues to go up, we're probably going to have some big draw down. And that might be the draw down. But again, I'm not in the business of calling for recessions or stock market tops. It's it's what's the what's the saying?
Bulls uh bears sound smart. Bulls make money.
Especially if we're talking about the stock market.
Um, over the course of, you know, since October 2025 with the Bitcoin top, bears have not only sounded smart, but have also been making money. And I include myself in that bucket, bro. Do you think Bitcoin could bounce from 77 first to take the high? Yeah, absolutely.
Absolutely.
But this is what I'm saying. That kind of line of questioning I actually like because it tells me that people were bearish but were expecting higher levels, right? And so from a probabilistic perspective, I like that because yes, 50/50 bearish and bullish, but everyone's been eyeing this zone. Everyone's been eyeing this upside liquidity. What if it doesn't come, right? What if it doesn't come?
And that's why I entered my short earlier and my position is now protected with my stop-loss at break even shared within the community. As always, you know where to find me if you want to see my own personal trades in this market.
DM me the keyword CBM on Telegram to join my private group. And the only requirement is that you've signed up with one of these affiliate exchange links down below and that's it. You start trading on there with your own capital and you're good to go.
Thoughts on Tom Lee's 9 to 12k price prediction for 2026?
Guys, can someone tell X8 Trend? If you're new to the channel, can someone tell X8 Trend what what my thoughts are about people like Tom Lee?
Someone tell me. Someone someone tell him.
If you're a a long-term viewer of the channel, tell him what my thoughts are.
I'll uh I'll tell you my thoughts if no one has answered you within 30 seconds.
20 seconds, Degan McCord, Chris Feldman.
You guys are trolls. You guys are absolute trolls. He's a genius, guys. I abs I absolutely love Tom Lee. No, no, no, no, no, no, guys.
I think that he's full of crap. We went over this in one of my videos. Don't get me wrong. I think that Ethereum can have a future, right? I think Bitcoin has a strong future. But Tom Lee, we went over his contract and I don't think I'll be able to find the tweet again, but basically it covered that he earns irrespective of the performance of the fund somewhere in the vicinity of 50 mil.
50 to manage the capital.
Tom Lee is down billions.
Like I'm going to ask I'm going to ask my my Claude right now.
Basically, he buys the tops like Michael Sailor does.
All right.
Here's the full picture on Tom Lee. Tom Lee's Bit Mine current status. As of early May 2026, Bitmine now holds over 5.1 million Ethereum worth around 11.9 billion at current prices. Sounds great, right? The firm accumulated its ETH at an estimated total cost of $16.4 billion. That implies roughly $4.5 billion in current unrealized loss, guys. It's like he he bought the top. I I don't know what else to say.
Pretty insane.
But imagine getting paid to buy the top.
That's what's frustrating. Like based on how I've been navigating in this market, like just give me the job. I'll take 50 mil. I'll take that. Give me the job.
Give me Tom Lee's role. I promise you I can get better entries than him. Give me that amount. Give me billions to manage and uh I I promise I will do a better job.
You could pay me half of what you pay him. Um Zcash is breaking down.
I'm up 30K on Zcash. Guys, this trade was also shared in my group. So, all the trades that I'm showing you today, this like my Bitcoin trade, this was shared in the live stream yesterday and within my community, the Zcash trade, you can see we pump, we dump, we pump, we dump.
Now, let's see how this this plays out.
I'm up 30K on this one. And this is a big trade for me. This this is a pretty big trade for me.
My targets are lower, but it's not since it's already up and I'm shorting it.
It's not an opportunity now to just jump in. I wouldn't just be blindly jumping into a trade. My entry is much higher than current prices.
I agree. Thank you, sir.
That's true, Fatty. I think Tom Lee is just a genius. And um yeah, I just don't have the same.
Do you expect a cross?
What do you mean a cross?
Do you expect a cross views on Sailor then? I don't think that Sailor is necessarily um I I don't like his approach in accumulating Bitcoin. I think that he's gotten a lot of eyes on the industry, but you can argue that it hasn't had any kind of positive impact on price. This kind of price action is conducive to bare market price action. And I don't like the way that he's using as much leverage as humanly possible to buy Bitcoin. I think that it's something that at some point will likely blow up. But hey, as we as we discovered yesterday, he purchased 9,000 bitcoins with his stretch product on the last day of his X dividend. So yeah, Kaden Shimmer, I think this pullback is just chasing liquidity towards the 75K range. Yeah, it's totally possible. like there's there's a chance here that we're still bullish. Maybe we're still bullish. Maybe there's there's some more shakeouts to come, right? And Bitcoin basically drops down to here and then we pop back up. What I would say though is I mentioned this in one of my other streams. If Bitcoin drops below $76,000, which is the value, sorry for all the ugly drawings, guys. Give me a moment.
If Bitcoin drops below $76,000, which is the value area high of this range where we have all this volume here, um, and we confirm below that level.
To me, that would suggest and it because of this local top two, that would suggest that we're likely going to move lower and and the the move to the upside is is finished even with potential bounces along the way because that would be a strong market structure shift. And yeah, that's currently what I'm looking at.
But we're far away. That's still a $3,000 move. We can just range around here. A lot can happen uh before we hit that level.
believer in bear bearish flag lows. I haven't necessarily talked about the flag, but I still think that what we're seeing is is um is likely going to break down because I think that overall this is a bare market relief rally, higher time frame that is. Can we still squeeze up? Yeah, of course.
I don't know. I don't know at what point things would become irreversible for Sailor because he actually came out recently and said that they'd be willing to sell some Bitcoin completely contradicting what he's been saying all along and I think people investors in Micro Strategy appreciate that actually.
So maybe maybe in a in a parallel world he sells for some actual profit for once and he doesn't just buy the tops.
Hi Mats here. What do you think? What what do you what do you mean by local top or local lows? You use it a lot. Is it like in lower time frames? So, it's more like medium-term time frame.
Like you can see that like for example, in my opinion, I mean it's not my opinion anymore based on the price action we've been seeing.
This is the local bottom.
The reason I say local and not the bottom is because I don't think that it's the bottom for this year.
You get what I'm saying?
Versus saying this is the low would would imply that I think that this is the low.
the low indefinitely.
Uh, Hamza, I can't pronounce that last name. My apologies. 801.
Would you consider adding more to your swing position if we get a sweep of 80K?
No, I wouldn't because if Bitcoin get gets acceptance because now now let's talk a little bit more upside stuff because I I've been quite bearish this stream naturally with the price action.
But if Bitcoin ends up coming back up to $80,600 and we gain acceptance back up to this level, which is where we effectively broke down from. The reason why it's important again, we have these levels highlighted on the chart. It's the low where Bitcoin bounced from and I went long to 97,000 98.
So if we get acceptance back up here, I know you said sweep, but we'll have to see. I'm already happy with my overall size in this market. So what this means is I don't necessarily need to add more or remove any. I already derisked a little bit last time around. Now I have multiple shorts open and the only time that I would consider adding to my short position is up here, my swing short.
Make sense?
Because we have so much liquidity here based on my system. This zone is just Yeah, it's the zone.
The zone for me.
So, I'm happy with my positions in the market. I don't need I don't need um I don't need a bigger position. You know what's interesting with Zcash? A lot of the times when Zcash pumps massively, holy smokes, oh my gosh, guys, what a trade. So, the thing with Zcash is when it has a massive rally, a lot of the times it marks local tops in the market, give or take a few days. And Zcash got a massive rally again.
Exactly, Archie. People who buy the tops often sell the bottoms sometimes due to liquidity crunch at the bottom. 100%. I can't take it anymore. It's going so much lower. Bitcoin's going to zero. So, right now, we're at a phase in the market where there's 50/50 um bulls and bears.
When we were up here, when we were up to this zone, 98K, I want to say that while I was bearish, it wasn't the majority. While I was bearish up here, we were looking at maybe 20 to 30% of the market was bearish, maybe just 20, honestly. And 80% we're saying, "This is it. This is the bounce that's going to bring us back to life, right?
Every bounce there's more and every low there's more and more people that become bearish. So then when we hit here at 60K, a lot of people were calling for lower prices at around 65K when we came back down here. Myself included. I was entertaining it the possibility. I'm not going to hide away from that.
However, we also pointed out the long scenario in in my community and you can see how the price action developed. But what happens is let's assume Bitcoin makes a new low.
Let's say that we do hit sub 60K, 50K, 40K just as an example.
If that is to occur, everyone will effectively say that Bitcoin is just going to continue dropping. it's over.
We're going to keep going down. We're going to keep going down. We're going to keep going down. And then you've suddenly flipped. There's no more bulls in the market. Then we're looking at a a point in the market where 80% over 80% of the market is bearish. I don't think we're at that point yet. We still have a lot of believers.
Then that is when the capitulation is over and we've concluded the bare market. That's when Bitcoin hits deep value zones and that's when I as an investor take some of my cash and I buy up as much Bitcoin as I can near those bare market bottoms. No one will get it perfect. Last bare market I bought between 15,000 and $30,000 per Bitcoin.
So that's that's how I think this will play out right now. Yes, I'm bearish.
There's some people that are bearish.
There's some people that are bullish. to about 50/50. But the ratio isn't quite right yet as well for me to call for a bare market bottom along with the other metrics that we've discussed on the channel such as the draw down from all-time high, such as the open interest, such as the liquidations, such as um the the Bitcoin balanced and realized price, which we usually tap into into a bare market. There's a there's a lot of metrics that I look at, right? So, I hope that makes sense.
Um, yeah. I don't I don't know if I have that much else to add, but that's how I think the market will ultimately play out. We're going to form a local top around here. Maybe we squeeze up, grab that upside liquidity. I think that the local top is around here. Not financial advice. I'm going to trade the market accordingly. Um, and then then we'll see. Then we'll see.
Then when all then when everyone is bearish when everyone is bearish and we're going to go against the grain I'm going to come on the channel and say guys I am bullish as [ __ ] and then I'm going to buy Bitcoin.
That's my ideal scenario and then we'll we'll catch the lows within 15 20% 15%.
5 to 15% let's say. Make sense?
How much further is Zcash going? Well, the to answer your question, how much further is Zcash going? I have to answer um the question of how much further is Bitcoin going? Because if Bitcoin drops from here, you could say goodbye to all alts really. There will be some that show a little bit more strength than others, but overall I think dominance will continue going up.
Do you guys appreciate my long-term rants about the market or cuz I'm not seeing that many or you guys are just maybe listening. I don't know. But if you do, I would highly appreciate if you just smashed that like button.
and just destroyed it.
234 likes, guys. This is this is solid considering we've been streaming now for um just under two hours. Solid stuff.
We're going to aim for 500 likes again today.
Let's see, guys.
They dumped to 2K, then turn the volume.
Turn the volume bot off. Yeah.
How important is economy evaluations to your TA? Very important, I would say.
But this this is in line with the business cycle. It's in line with how Bitcoin performs in midterm years. Um we've seen time and time again that stock market can make an all-time high.
Um and Bitcoin can continue to struggle because it's the riskiest of riskiest of assets, right? So that's that's it. I mean look it's very difficult to trade CPI inflation just PPI inflation data overall but you can see that it's not heading in the right direction and therefore of course this has an impact on my higher time frame analysis but to say that I trade PPI and CPI directly is it would be silly to do so because you get you can get violent reversals in the markets um before the the longer term thesis actually plays out. I'm off to the gym. Peace out, everyone. We'll be listening to the live stream on the way though. Nice, Fatty, my man. Have a great workout.
I'm going to hit I think I might hit legs on Friday.
Not going to be nice, but sometimes you just got to do what you got to do.
Okay, so we're waiting for this 4 hour close. Looks we're just chopping around here and you can see that if we take a look here on weeks the funding rate is slightly positive. Okay, funding rate is positive on Zcash which I like to see. Um Bitcoin dominance looks like yesterday was just a little bit of a tick down and I think we could be climbing up here on the weekly.
Um, boss, how's it going? It's going well, my man. We're in a short. Just holding the short.
Um, we're chilling, man. We are chilling.
Cheers. Back day for me. Nice, man. Is it better to buy gold for now and buy and buy Bitcoin in October and November?
I don't know, man. I think that gold will ultimately climb up, but I also want to keep dry powder because there's some scenarios where Bitcoin bottoms out before October. That's another thing, guys. You need to be careful with uh being obsessed with like the time frame that it has to bottom. I think that we will see a new low over the course of this year. But if we have a massive capitulation down, I would be buying before October. Like let's say Bitcoin drops and over this course of the next couple months we're we're below 50K.
I'm like blindly buying almost.
I love your vision. Thank you.
You guys listen to Drake's new album below 50K. I can even sell my stocks to buy more. Uh Mustafa, the thing is while uh while I think that Bitcoin can drop, such a drop like that, such a drop like that on Bitcoin would likely coincide with the stock market dropping a little bit. And therefore, that's why you always want to have a balanced cash position. I know some you you could maybe earn 5% interest on that. Like some people don't like that, but I always have some cash even if inflation is eating away at it because I do envision opportunities.
Some signs of a local top. My realtor friend asking if he should buy Bitcoin now before it makes another all-time high.
Let's get people bullish. Bullish, bullish, bullish.
Oh, I misread. No, bro. I said socks, not stock.
Ah, I see. Well, if you're planning on buying a significant amount of Bitcoin, those must be some pretty expensive socks.
Kendrick killed Drake.
Okay, so we're not getting that much clarity with Bitcoin on this on this close so far. It seems I told you the best case scenario for the bulls is to close above 794.
I mean, there's still seven minutes left. The law can change. Maybe we get that buy pressure all the way up to here. That's the best case scenario. You get a close above here.
Then it suggests like okay we're holding above these pivots significant pivots in the market.
The mid case so between bulls and bears is to not get a close below here but you know find our way somewhere in between.
So let's see we'll monitor this for the next few minutes.
Do long step in last couple of hours?
Let's see. Most people always say they want to buy lower, but when price gets there, people are too scared to buy thinking it will drop more. Devil, that's ex in line with what I just discussed with how the bare markets typically happen. So, just to give you a quick recap, I'm not sure if you've been watching, but basically here on this relief rally, there's maybe only around, let's say, 30% of people that were bearish in terms of trading this. And a lot of people were expecting us to just continue to push up on this relief rally.
There's now around, let's say, 50% of the people that are bearish. And the other 50% think that this is going to continue and we're going to have a massive push to the upside. But the lower we go, the more people get bearish and the more people get afraid and there's just so much fear in the market where we eventually get to the point where everyone is just bearish. Like literally everyone, all you see is bearish setups on the timeline and bearish influencers. And that's when you buy. That's when you buy aggressively from a spot portfolio perspective.
So, let's see. Let's see how it plays out.
And it's kind of the same thing that I was talking about, Devil, because I watched your live stream today as well.
Um, this is a massive confluence zone, and I know you have your levels, but let's just call it between 82 now all the way up to around 85, maybe even 86. This zone is a huge confluence zone point of control of the tariff range low of anchored VWAP or alltime high 200 day moving average. These metrics that I like to use and everyone's currently eyeing it. So in terms of potential shorts, I know that you entered right up here. You basically entered the pico top which absolute legend. Um maybe we just don't even get this because everyone's eyeing that as a potential shorting scenario. Everyone wants Bitcoin to go to 85K so they can enter their shorts. What if we don't get it? What if we don't get it? Anyways, Devolt, if you're still here and you listen to that, let me know your thoughts. Do we have a a move to the local highs again or what?
Matt Kelly sounds like a nice plan.
Yes, sir. Once a month, leg day.
Let's see, guys.
That's also a scenario.
That is also a scenario.
Um, what if we get get it? That's also a scenario maj. I'm not sure if I'm pronouncing that correctly. What if we get up to the confluence zone and Bitcoin just flies higher?
But that that's the thing is overall I would say that we're like 5050 bull and bare like the mark I haven't seen the market this split in a while which makes it a little bit nerve-wracking holding some shorts but based on my analysis and based on what we've seen previously um you know and trading is all about recognizing patterns whether we take the high or not I think that uh we could be moving lower over the course of this But I was very confident in my short at $97,000.
The lower we go, the less risk I will take.
It's a pretty weak bounce thus far though, I have to say. Let's see. We want some volume coming in and and some buying pressure. At this point in time, you can see that the majority of the volume comes with the selling after we had that Clarity Act uh squeeze to the upside.
Yeah, stocks definitely should keep going up if if that's going to be the case. I agree.
Uh, Ganesha, stocks have added $12 trillion in the last six weeks of upside. Can't imagine how much higher it can go. Well, you'd be surprised. That's why you never bet against the stock market. Um, you got people like Michael Bur calling for a big crash every single day and he's gotten one great call, but for the most part, it's becoming a meme at this point.
Um, yeah, it's just so annoying. Stocks have added 12 trillion in the last six weeks.
What's, you know, why can't we just add, you know, add a couple trillion to crypto? That would be nice, wouldn't it?
Like I said, you guys hear me talking about shorts in this bare market relief rally quite often, but for the most part, I am a long-term bear. Uh, long-term bull. Sorry, clip that. I'm a long-term bull. Um, and I would love nothing more than for Bitcoin to just go to infinity and beyond. But I'm also realistic in my approach to the market and we get strong bare market relief rallies. And I think that what we're seeing is once again a bare market relief rally before continuation lower.
Yo, nice. Finally got you live.
Awesome.
Okay, so we closed below these levels again. So we got the one close, we got a second pretty significant close. Now, we have to see like are people going to buy this up or are we just going to move lower? What do you guys think? Do you think we get a little bit of a bounce here? Because this is a pretty aggressive candle. Usually when you get these pretty pretty aggressive candles, you know, you you're not sure if the continuation can occur. We're still in bullish market structure. We've still been forming higher lows.
Guys, I'm sorry, but you're asking one of the most realistic people you can about a like a question like that. Uh, Yuri, I I I'm not I can't I can't pronounce your name. My apologies. I'm just going to call you Yuri 2538.
I have 10K and my job pays me 3K and I'm positive 1K a month. Is it possible to get to $1 million within 1 to two years?
Anything is possible, but my answer to you is be realistic. Everyone always wants to just get rich quick. It's just uh and that's the annoying part of the crypto industry, right? I provide realistic views of the market. I provide my own trades, but a lot of people just want to get rich quick. And most people lose all of their money chasing that.
And there's a select few that end up making tons of money and then end up losing it all because they were gambling.
And then there's a tiny percentage of people that do end up getting rich, but it's over a long time frame with consistent results over time.
So, I hope that answers your question.
You're not going to hear me say, "Hey man, with 10K you can get rich within one to two years." Maybe you find an alt that does a gazillion X. But this might be the wrong channel for you.
If that's um if that's your mentality to try to do it so quickly.
Exactly. Get rich quick equals money easy come easy go.
with prop firms it might be possible.
Yeah.
But I I again I want to give you guys a realistic view of things and I Yeah.
You guys are going to ask me about SPX6900.
Oh my gosh. Wow. What a throwback.
So, let's see.
I trolled these guys and they came at me. SPX 6900.
Look at this guys. This is an old video.
Um, dumb as [ __ ] that thumbnail cuz their their army is insane. And I was tagging like Murad. You have to admire their conviction. Look at Look, this is back in the day. Oh my gosh.
Look, look, look. Oh my gosh, guys.
Murad, why am I extremely bullish on 6900? And keep in mind this guy said that S&P6900 is going to flip the stock market. Sometimes it's fun to like come on guys let me just play it >> hundred billion dollars for like some of the memes like can you give a projection just paint a picture of what it's going to look like when we at that moment where some of the memes are hundred billion dollars because right now a billion dollars is being considered a lot. Oh hit a billion dollars or whatever.
>> Yeah. But can you paint a picture of 2025 at some point?
>> We have one meme coin that maybe a billion dollars. A couple of others following up. What what's that going to look like?
>> Yeah. So, here are my predictions.
>> Yeah.
>> Official predictions. Not financial advice, right?
>> I think uh meme coins to one trillion, >> right?
>> One trillion.
>> One trillion.
>> One trillion.
>> Okay. So, what does that what does that make Doge at? So, Dogecoin is at what point of is it flipped or is it it's still number one, but it's somewhere in hundreds of billions? I can see it making new highs this cycle.
>> Okay. New highs.
>> New highs, >> which it didn't.
>> Do you think it's going to get flipped?
>> I think it could.
>> What would be the flipper?
>> SPX 6900.
>> Why do you believe so much in SPX?
>> Uh because >> the foundation on that one is crazy.
>> Yeah, because you know, there's no other coin that has a matic ceiling that's that high. You know, SPX 500 is at 52 trillion right now.
>> Right. So 52 trillion. All right now, maybe you believe it's the stock market is going to get flipped. Maybe you don't believe. But what if we get to 10% of that, right? What if we get to 1% of that? You know, what if we get to 0.1% of that?
>> That's 400. That's 4 trillion, 400 billion, and 45 billion respectively, right? Which is a lot, you know? Uh but I do believe Dogecoin is going to get flipped because you know Dogecoin is just a dog and culturally it actually peaked in 2013 even though financially peaked in 20121 and might still make a new high is just a dog. Now it is the first and there are certain powers to do with the first mover advantage. But the amount of energy that >> energy >> in the SP6900 community I wake up to 200 giant bull posts, new videos, new memes.
>> The videos are crazy.
>> Yeah, the videos are crazy. And um every day I wake up to new eons, new people, new bull posters. Why? Because this is the next Doge. This is the next ship.
>> I think this is the next Ripple. This is and most importantly this is the next GME. So I believe that essentially SPF6900 is going to become the BTC of memes and whoever be at least uh among this cycle coins >> and whoever becomes the BT of memes it's going to pull that crazy shiplike move and I expect that giant global reflexivity to happen uh with >> not notice they use big words that giant global reflexivity.
Give me a [ __ ] break man. Anyways, someone asked about SPX6900. That's why I posted this. March 28, 2025. I said on Twitter, I'm baffled. I have no words for this. Imagine believing this. And if you look at the comments, the entire community um just like look at this. Look, look. You were intrigued enough to make a post about it. You could have just written it off and ignored it. It's a joke until it isn't. Imagine believing belief isn't going to work.
Look at the Look at this poor man with no vision. It's I don't know if it's bots, but this [ __ ] had me cracking up.
Oh my god. Anyways, enough of that nonsense. I just I thought it was funny.
Um, so now you know my thoughts on SPX6900.
You guys are you guys are saying um who would listen to these guys, but I've had a lot of people join my channel um particularly a few months ago saying, "Man, thank you. You saved me from all the altcoinium and bullshit." You have to ask yourself like when you see that, do you really believe the words that are coming out of these people's mouths?
Like they own tons of the supply. Um anyways, sorry that was just a little bit of fun.
Um, that being said though, if you hear me promote any kind of altcoin, you know that I actually think it can perform well, right? I uh I'm being I'm very very careful with my word with the words that I use and what I actively talk about on the channel. And so if we have some next altcoin season or something like that, I hope that you can um obviously take what I say with a grain of salt, but you know that I won't just be promoting [ __ ] like that because I'm happy to make fun of coins like that or communities like that or videos like that promoting that kind of nonsense.
Yeah.
So stocks are just cho chugging along here. Um, we did get a lot of selling, but this is nothing, man. This is nothing.
The amount of times where the stock market has done this and then just flipped to the upside.
If we close the day red, let's just say Monday uh won't be green, right?
Obviously, it impacts Bitcoin, but you think SPX won't go to like 5 to 10 billion. It still has a community in diamond hands.
I I Are you joking? Maybe it does, but uh bro, we need to send ETH to 5K. I was disappointed in ETH this cycle to be honest. I mean I held some ETH and when we just grazed the previous all-time high and then that was it. Come on.
That was awful man. Awful.
It was 2.2 billion in July 2025. Now it's at 38 cents. I mean, guys, it's And again, it's nothing against SPX6900.
It's It's just the entire It's a memecoin, right? And the fact that it went all the way up to over a $2 billion market cap.
That's pretty impressive on community alone. But let's be real, guys.
Come on. Maybe it'll make a comeback, but I thought it was hilarious.
I researched S sp6900. Matt, don't think it's bad, guys. I've been trolling these guys for a while. So, if you're asking my thoughts on some pointless altcoin that has a strong community, I'll give them that. their community is pretty strong because as I came out and kind of hated them, uh, they just answered my post and just tried to flame me for it.
But, you know, I think I got the last laugh.
Um, I don't have any regrets not holding this token.
If you can get into these tokens and get out, sure.
But like guys, I I talked about it around here.
So, we're uh we're pretty far down.
I I think this bounce is looking relatively weak for Bitcoin here. I know you guys aren't watching me to talk about meme coins, but um yeah, I'm I'm in my short from yesterday's live stream. Still holding on to the position. My stop loss is at break even.
I'm about to have a lovely weekend.
Things are looking good. What a great way. You know, the sun the sun was shining here. O, it was a great Friday.
Great Friday, guys. Spreading positive vibes.
Uh, vision pulsed fat boy. Murad went from 40 mil to 7 mil. The thing is, I I have a theory and I think that there's a possibility here that Miad sold his wallets cuz I think he may have sold his wallets and maybe even sold his entire like persona on Twitter, sold the account.
The reason I say this is because I don't think he's a stupid guy. I think he knows exactly what he's doing. I think he knows that there's a lot of people that will fall for that kind of nonsense. I was laughing about it, but again, you'd be surprised. Um, how many people fall for that crap? And there's a chance he just sold his wallet. If his wallet was worth 50 mil, maybe he sold it for like 45 mil, 46 mil. And um, he's just off in the sunset and someone's occupying his persona.
I don't know.
You're show you're you're showing a chart that's better than most utility coins. That is also true. It's not as It's not down as bad as the rest. Um well, I was saying with Miad, I think maybe he um sold his his wallets.
Yeah, but stoned ape. Guys, this mentality is dangerous. Just because someone holds an asset, it doesn't mean that it's just going to perform extremely well in the future. Now, if you ask me to bet on a potential meme coin in a community for the future, it's a strong one. It's a strong one. Meme coins. If we consider meme coins, sure.
But just because someone holds it, he diamondhanded. Again, there's there's a chance here that he sold his wallets off and he profited from that without having to sell the token itself. Some people do that in the space. They sell their persona as well. um they sell the Twitter account. There's ways to to circumvent these things. So, you have to think a little bit more logically if you're hoping to get rich with a coin like that.
It's gambling. It's gambling. Can it perform well in a potential uh return of memes? Sure. It has a good community.
It's dumped a lot less than other tokens. But overall, guys, think of where you're putting your money. Not financial advice. You could put your money wherever you want to. Um, but when you're asking a serious trader and a serious investor what he thinks of a memecoin in the middle of a bare market um, you think Zcash goes even further down, guys. All the updates for my trades are shared within my community. Maybe we pop back up here.
As I said, I share everything in the community and the community is free. My Zcash short, which is currently up around 30K, my Bitcoin short, scalp short, this one, and my Bitcoin swing short as well. If you click this link, the first one, DM me the keyword CBM on Telegram, you're able to get access to my group where I share all of my own personal trades and my overall market analysis.
All altcoins are a Ponzi scheme until proven otherwise valid. All altcoins over time bleed against Bitcoin. That's also my view.
But I don't want to dis disregard I don't want to yeah ignore the fact that there can be periods in the market where you see outperformance from alts. And the way to play that is if your alt is outperforming Bitcoin and things are going up, you rotate into Bitcoin because the idea with alts is to make as much as possible to rotate into Bitcoin.
That has always been my game plan with altcoins.
Bitcoin is trying to hold support here.
Trying keyword.
I would like to see a drop below 78700 proper closes below the level for me to say, hey, we're probably going to head to the 77K zone.
until then.
Looking like a little bit of a bounce here.
Gracian jello.
Yes, guys. Destroy the like button.
Destroy that like button. 276 likes.
Let's go, guys. Some of you were making fun of my hair today. Yeah, I got a little bit of little bit of bed head.
Um, yeah, the bounce for Bitcoin does look a little bit weak. I uh I'm in my short from yesterday's stream and shared within my community beforehand. still holding on to this scalp short. My bigger position is is uh elsewhere.
Um and I'm also holding a a Zcash one.
Bitcoin is following NASDAQ. I don't think there will be a bounce today. Not an explosive one. Let's see. Let's see.
It's a pretty steep move down. And if sailor's not buying, well, maybe today we just stay pretty flat.
action happens on the Friday close time.
Oh man, the Friday close time.
Does it?
So, you're telling me I need to stay live for another four hours? Is that the plan?
flat all the way through the weekend.
possible until the weekly close where we have a massive pump.
How often do you live stream? So, I started my channel with just videos, but this week I maybe I did every day. I must have missed one day. Yesterday I did a video and a live stream. It was a lot. Um, but lately I've been doing them multiple times per week.
Let's see how the price action develops.
I'm uh guys, if we're still if Bitcoin is still like this for the next 30 minutes, let's say I'll be patient with it. 30 minutes and we're still within the same zone.
I'm I may call it quits. Let's see. It is Friday. We've already done two and a half hours. But let's see. If you're enjoying the content, guys, please make sure to just destroy that like button.
It helps out the channel so much. We're below 300 likes. I think we can make it to at least 300 likes today.
We got this. Just destroy that like button.
Key high time frame level for the bulls to reclaim is 80,600. The reason it's so significant, you can see how we react around this zone, but it's the previous low. So, if I zoom out a little bit more, it's the low before Bitcoin had a significant bounce in the upper range here. So, getting acceptance back above there is very, very important for the bulls. For the bears, you want to see us break down below the level that we effectively just bounced from. And that is right at around $78,700.
At least Sailor bought 1 billion worth of Bitcoin this week. He bought more than that. Um and and Hello all. Gemma Gov, he's here.
Uh Let's see. Bitcoin, if you don't want to stay that long, call winter mute. Yeah. Let me just pick up the phone.
This looks okay. Can we can we get a nice move here?
Maybe we'll enter a live trade depending on what kind of price action we get here.
All right, see you, brother. It's been good. Peace out. Thanks for joining.
Destroy the like button before you leave.
We can get to 300. We're three away.
Um, man, how do you how do you plan your entry so precise like that one from 97K?
It was fire.
Uh, as I discussed earlier in the live stream, it actually took a few attempts.
So there's a lot of times where I enter that trade at like 94, then we drop a little bit. I take profits, move my stop loss to break even, take profits, move my stop loss to break even. And what happens is the price keeps hitting my break even, but I was very confident that we would be dropping from around that zone. And if you're asking why that is, well, we had the anchored VWAP from all-time high going right into the level along with the bull market support band.
And so to me this was enough confluence to justify a short particularly with a big rally like we got. So finally I entered it and the rest is history.
Very rarely is it just one trade you're in and it's done. A lot of the times I'll do multiple attempts. I'll protect my capital. I'll be smart about it. I'll take even some minor losses, but the wins are um yeah, exceed the losses. Uh Gregor, what's your hit rate on the live trades?
Actually, my hit rate on the live trades is I don't it depends. If you're talking specifically from entry to a specific TP, then I don't think you can count them. But if you're counting profitable trades, I've taken three live trades so far and all three I left with profit.
So profit and then stop loss to break even. But the live trades, man, I take I use way less capital. This one that I took yesterday is probably the biggest live trade that I've taken. And the reason is is mainly because it was an opportunity I was looking for to share within my premium group. So my bigger trades are always shared within my premium group first first.
So the group is free. I call it premium because you just get more access to me and how I trade this market. But it is a free group. If you DM me the keyword CBM on Telegram, you're able to join that group. And um yeah, it's completely free.
We got Bluffin, we got Tubbit. All of these exchanges are options to be able to join that group.
No, no.
Do you need Richm4199 Matt, thanks again, brother. Keep doing what you do. I appreciate the comment and thank you for supporting the channel, my man.
I think your ADK knife catch was even more epic. Yeah, that one was pretty crazy. That one was crazy because I told the group, I said, "Guys, I'm going in for a knife catch and I caught the knife multiple times, took profits multiple times, got stopped at a break even, even had a I think I may have had a loss or two and then we caught the bottom at around 80. It wasn't even the perfect bottom. It's like 83K and then Bitcoin rallied to 97." So, sometimes I like to play around with these knife catches.
The short is printing.
Uh, Gregor, 76K is a good zone to long, isn't it? Actually, yes. The answer is yes. The reason why 76K is a zone that I would consider taps into the bottom range of the bull market support band.
But most importantly, 76K is actually right at the top of where we rejected.
So the bulls, if we are to even make it down there, there's no guarantees, right? Maybe we bounce from here. If we are to make it down here, this is like a great value area high of the existing range. It's like it has to be an attempt for me. I'm going to attempt this for sure within the community. and I'll share with you guys in the group as soon as I decide to take on any new trades as always. Um, but yeah, this is it.
But maybe we just squeeze higher here.
No jazz today. I'm playing the same live stream music, guys. I need some better live stream music.
Uh, Yuri 2538. Yeah, most people do look at those. It's also what the market makers like to use.
I don't know anyone that looks at 22minut candles.
I'm actually liking the way it looks with the Bitcoin logo in the back. Kind of like blurred. Happy with the new camera.
We're not going to break this, are we?
All right, I'm taking a nap. Wake me up when the price starts moving again.
Sounds good. I'll uh I'll wake you up if I'm live.
What's your framework for combining onchain data with derivatives data without getting conflicting signals?
So price action is king, right? I look at the price action first.
I look at the higher time frame structure and then I go and search for for data. So my bias, maybe I shouldn't use the word bias, but my my direction of the market is first and foremost based on the price action and then I look at derivatives data, onchain data, etc. So, if I'm overall bearish and I can see based on the price action on the higher time frames, if I think that Bitcoin is effectively getting close to a top, um then I start looking at the rest of the data to add confluence to my trades.
But price action comes first. More locally, we are bullish. You know, we could be forming a higher low here. But on the higher time frames, I do still stand firm on the fact that it's likely this rally tops out.
clear break of 79,400 and a retest of it would be valid to try along. Yes, I agree. Not financial advice, of course.
It would be interesting for sure.
Today is the last day of Powell. That old man was so stubborn. I have to be honest. I think all things considered, he did a pretty decent job.
Uh, what's up, my G? How we doing?
Getting rich. Of course we are. Of course we are. We're always getting rich.
I always thought the FIFA soundtracks were fire. Oh, Sky Fox 89. Don't get me started, man. Don't get me started. I like I ripped FIFA since FIFA 12 Ultimate Team. I was huge into FIFA.
Huge. And uh I love their music. They always had the best tunes.
I have a I have a playlist as well. And sometimes when I'm ripping tennis or even when I'm playing u football at the park with my friends, we'll bring a big speaker and we'll play some FIFA tunes out loud.
Hard to beat it. Hard to beat it. You feel like you're in a movie.
Whiz your X dividend date is it's done.
It's done.
I mentioned this in in yesterday's stream, right?
You could see he's no longer at par.
Yesterday he bought 9,000 bitcoins.
Uh Luis Oando 5505. Do you use crypto credit cards or do you take profit out of crypto to bank? I actually do both.
Yeah, Powell was pretty textbook like um on your premium group, how many trades do you show on average? How many trades do I show in my group? All of them. Win or lose, all of my trades are shared within my group. How many trades do I take? I am a swing trader at the end of the day. So, I would say somewhere between realistically on average two to six a month.
Doesn't sound like a lot, but that's probably a good ballpark. Sometimes I'll take some scalps here and there, but for the most part, um, and it really depends. If I feel like I have a crazy edge in the market at a certain point, then of course I take more trades. But for the most part, that's that's that's life as a swing trader. you're not taking a gazillion positions a day. I know there's some groups um that take three, five, 10 trades a day. That's not me. If that's what you're expecting and you're into this like lower time frame scalping, I only scalp maybe 10% of the time. My bigger trades are swings and they always will be.
Can you maybe quickly explain what the stretch means with Micro Strategy? So, basically people buy this people buy this stock before the expected dividend date uh expected dividend date and they get interest 11.5% I believe it is as a return for buying this stock. And as they buy it, it creates this liquidity where it brings this above par which is above $100 and above. And with that excess capital that Sailor raises through people buying the stock, he's able to effectively buy Bitcoin and [ __ ] tons of it. So yesterday he bought 9,000 bitcoins. You can see we were above par.
So that's what it is. And then once the expected dividend date uh hits, usually we drop afterwards because people are buying it in buying it into the the date. So now this is over and I think they're doing a vote to get it twice per month instead of once a month. But if I'm not mistaken, the next one should be in like a month from now, I think.
Or is it every two weeks? One second.
Yeah, unless they change it.
Do you recommend swings to a guy with lower capital? Um, good question.
I think it's the least stressful way of trading and I value my time, my peace of mind, and my and my Yeah, I value my time and my peace of mind.
When I started, I scalped a lot.
Now a lot less.
Hello Matt Rex Blaze 90. Sorry I didn't answer your question Nick Tuni. Um yeah, if you have less capital then personally when I had less capital I was entering more positions in the market and then my capital grew and then I started entering less and less and less and I'm a lot more selective about the trades that I take.
What do you mean with low capital? Low capital for someone can be 100k. I don't know. Whatever low capital is for you. I didn't ask uh Nick Tuni how much capital he has.
You make more on long trades. Actually, that's not true. Tom Turnbull, my man.
Tom Turnbull 77777. You're always typing in caps.
Get Get your cap locks off.
How would you define swing trading? Like what criteria must it fulfill? Only entering on a new local high bottom? No, not necessarily. It just means that you're basically hold you're holding the trade for a lot longer and you have further targets and you're in it like you're I'm sometimes in positions for days to weeks. So, you know, when I come on the channel on my YouTube channel and I say, "Hey guys, like I'm up 300 grand on my Bitcoin short trade." It took a while for Bitcoin to get from 97K to that 60K low. It took quite some time.
So, I was just holding the trade and holding the trade and taking profits on the way down. So, that's uh that's the nature of it versus scalps like you're in and out. Like this was a scalp and I took some profits. My stop losses at break even. And now if we dump, well, I make more money. If we pump, well, I still made money. Realized profits.
Okay.
So, we're still within the same range, guys. I'm still shorting, which is the same trade that I've had open since the beginning of the video.
You opened my eyes on weaponizing time in my trades.
Hi, my bro. Buy or sell?
Come on, man.
What made you so sure to hold the trade from 97K to 60K? So, first of all, there's no certainties in the market, right? That's that's rule number one.
You have to accept that the market is notoriously unpredictable. However, historical price action suggested that Bitcoin had a lot more to go. And I believed at that point Bitcoin was in a confirmed bare market. So although I longed the lows at around 80,000 up to 97,000, I also did firmly believe that the rally would top out and we would drop even further than that 80k pivot low because in bare markets you get relief rallies.
So that was that's been my overall thesis. And I'm not going to act like I took all of the profits from that trade at the bottom because I'm still holding part of the trade and I'm looking I I've added to that existing position because I do still think there's a chance we we go lower. But I took a lot of profits on the way down. I've realized over 300K and I've been taking profits on the way down. So to answer your question about the certainty of hitting 60K, it's not because 60K was necessarily a pertinent level. In fact, I was eyeing more 70 75K because that's in line with the tariff capitulation lows. Um, but as we go lower, I take more profits and and that's that, right?
But there are no certainties in this market. I just play the probabilities.
The sooner you can accept that as a trader, trading is all about probabilities, the better off you'll be.
Should I sell my low caps and reby lower? I don't know, my man. I don't hold any low caps. If Bitcoin drops, all I can really say is the rest of the crypto market will likely drop if Bitcoin drops.
Do you have any tips on emotional management or what you what you do to help you through those times when you started Aaron charms? Um the only and the best solution for managing your emotions is to not risk more than you can afford to lose. I know you've heard it all before, but seriously, with proper risk management, you know, how do I put it in a different way than I've I've explained previously? With proper risk management, it's almost like you can enter your trade and you're risking 1% of your trading portfolio, as an example, and you can just log off and let the trade play out or not play out.
That helps with emotional management. So you almost accept that I'm I might lose 1% of my trading portfolio or 2% whatever the risk is. But you have a predefined risk. You have predefined targets, predefined uh invalidations and whatever happens happens, right? The moment that you become more emotional is usually when you're risking way too much, more than you can afford to lose.
And my saying has been and will continue to be if you can't sleep at night with an active position open, if you can't sleep peacefully, it simply means that you're risking too much capital. That's it.
Do you have take profits on every trade that you do?
Um, I'm not sure if you I'm not sure if I understand the question. Yeah, every trade I do has targets and that's where I take my profits. Yeah.
Sometimes though, like if I'm in a trade and we break well, let's say I'm longing Bitcoin and we pump much higher than my predefined target, I always leave a moon bag or to the downside in my community, I called it a grave bag.
How was strategy and stick to strategy?
the French photographer if you are French. Um um how was strategy and stick to strategy?
If it's about sticking to your strategy, again, it goes back to risking what you can afford to lose so you don't start fiddling with the buttons and you you start getting stressed out.
There's so many different reasons why price drops or pumps to a certain level on day scalps and it's hard to get it perfectly. What do you think about DCAing in instead of getting stop-loss at all times? Look, I I like dollar cost averaging into trades, whether it's a long or short position, but I have to say it isn't for the weak and it isn't for inexperienced traders. There's a lot of people that want to do this, but um having spoken with some some newer traders within my community, it's clear a lot of the times that people that are just starting out don't and I didn't have this when I started out don't have like the emotional bandwidth to be able to do that as you see your position as in negative and you add more to your existing position.
So just something for you to consider.
When I started out, I definitely wasn't able to do that. Um, and and be okay, you know, sorry, I meant to I meant you need to have a strategy and stick to it. Yeah, this price action is boring AF. Yeah, it is, guys. Like I said, I'm I'm waiting for this to play out. We're running a about a 4hour stream or three hour stream here. We just made it above 300 likes. Can we make it to 350? And guys, remember, I know it's boring, but I am in active positions. I'm up around 25K on Zcash, up around 12K on my Bitcoin short. Um, and I've already realized around 7K there. All these trades were pre-shared in my group. It's where I post all of my own personal trades and my overall market analysis. If you DM me the keyword CBM on Telegram, you'll be able to join my group and it is free because you're trading with your own capital. The only requirement is that you've signed up with one of these affiliate exchange links down below and you start trading on there. Bluffin is my go-to, but I also use other exchanges like Weeks. Another solid alternative.
I'm using Siri. Okay. The French photographer. Gotcha. Um, adding to Bitcoin position is okay. Alts will be suicide as alts randomly pump and dump without respecting levels, particularly in this kind of market. Yeah. Yeah. I agree, Matt. In my opinion, new traders, as soon as they see something in the red, they want to bail. They don't want to keep adding to losing position because they're not sure about anything.
The real PG777 100%, man. 100%. That's how I was, right? You see your position in the negative and you're thinking, what? I'm going to I'm going to maybe take on more of a loss here. It just doesn't make sense. It's too stressful if you're just starting out. Um, and again guys, the reason I do things in the way that I do them, particularly in my premium group, is because I'm not a financial adviser, right? And we've had this discussion before. All I do is I share what I'm personally doing in the market. And I can understand that sometimes when I add to positions that are in negative, it's because it's the risk that I'm comfortable taking. So, you don't necessarily have to follow me um if you don't want to or if you don't feel comfortable executing on what I'm executing on and what I see in the market. And like I said time and time again, the best traders in my group are not the ones that just blindly copy me. They're the ones that basically have their own analysis and they can see if it matches with mine. And if they don't agree with me, they don't agree with me and they take an opposite trade or they simply don't trade. Um and if they do agree with me, then then great. But you have to have your own kind of analysis.
Thank you for sharing your 4 hour 4 hours live with us. Gratitude.
My pleasure. Buddha belly.
Do you think we'll go further down or go back to 84K?
Happy with questions like this, guys?
Because as you know, my thesis, I have a I have a cheeky theory that because people want higher to short, maybe we just don't get it.
But let's see. We have a massive confluence zone that I've highlighted right here. And guys, as I said, as for my system, I have to execute on a short up here. But because I see quite a lot of comments expecting higher first, it makes me think that maybe, just maybe, we don't tap into it, which is why I've already pulled the trigger.
4D, 5D chess, as we like to call it.
Are you a Webana fan since you're French Canadian?
Guys, you want to hear a weird but true story? I learned patience pays through holding Bitcoin while I was in jail six years. It's actually true. Damn.
Yeah, patience does pay. And again, let's have a talk. There's 264 of you on There's 264 of you on the live stream and I want to have a serious talk about the bare market assuming it plays out as I've been discussing.
when if Bitcoin drops to lower levels, we might have a painful few months on the channel where I'm going to be very vocal about purchasing crypto and it's going to require a lot of patience. A lot. There's going to be times where the price dumps 10% below my spot entry, even more maybe. But I will keep on buying and I will keep on being bullish as soon as I am convinced that the bottom could be in. And based on what I'm seeing, I don't think that the bottom is in to be perfectly clear. But it's going to be a period in the market where, as I said, everyone, and I'm calling it now, everyone is going to be bearish on Bitcoin. It's not going to be 50/50 like where we are at the top of this range. Everyone will be bearish and we might have to hold through months of pain. And by we, I mean me because nothing that I discuss on the channel should be construed as financial advice.
And every video I'm going to come out and I'm going to say, "Guys, I'm I bought spot Bitcoin. Guys, I spot I bought spot Bitcoin. Guys, I bought spot Bitcoin." And I might get hate for it again, just like I've been getting hate since shorting from 97K.
But it's the way she goes. It's the way she goes. But I'm just warning you now.
Um, we're going to have some haters at that period in the market. I'm preparing everyone. I'm preparing everyone.
time in the market, not timing the market. Absolutely. Uh Daniel Duran, absolutely.
You usually don't just Vshape from bare market lows. Usually you have time to like carve out a bottom.
Basically, my bare market accumulation is um basically my long-term accumulation strategy for this bare market is if we get to sub 60 60k confirmation, I'm probably going to DCA between 15 and 25% of my cash position.
um between 50 and 60K if we are to even get there. Reminder guys, I still have some spot Bitcoin from the last bare market. I'm happy with my spot position and I'm looking to add more if we head lower. I bought between 15 and 30K. Um to remind everyone because I think it's foolish to not have any exposure to the markets.
Then if we are to go below 50K, that's when I would be like very very aggressive. 50k down to 30k, call it.
But I'm not, this isn't me shouting that we're going to hit those levels. I'm just saying what I would do if we hit those levels.
Ah, guys, I'm not going to give 10-year price predictions on Bitcoin, but all you need to know is if I didn't think that Bitcoin had a future in 10 years, I wouldn't be creating this channel. I wouldn't be um trading it probably. I wouldn't be in this space. Yes, I'm in the space to make money trading, right?
I like trading. I like money. Who doesn't? But I believe in Bitcoin in the long term. So, I wouldn't have started this if I didn't read the Bitcoin standard. Um, if I didn't believe in in Bitcoin as a whole, is it hard trading the bottom of the bare market? It's Will Anderson. Yes.
Yes. Absolutely it is. Absolutely.
Because normally you like we can have a scenario. Well, like let me show you rather than me just talking out of my bum. I can show you a scenario.
Let's go.
So, let's go here.
This was another significant bounce for Bitcoin at $18,000. And I'm just telling you guys right now in bare markets sometimes we have lows in June. So maybe we start we can already start moving lower or maybe it drags on I don't know but this was another very nice bounce 40% bounce again for Bitcoin after dropping and a lot of people in this past bare in this previous bare market.
Hey, this is the bottom.
And I actually bought Bitcoin not here, but a little bit up here, like in the 20k region, and then we just whipped down below the level and went to just below $16,000.
So, from a trading perspective, yeah, well, looking for longing opportunities in these kinds of in these kinds of moves, of course, but you just never know. And there's always a possibility that we just come right back down later.
Check it out. The So from there to there, the last time the price was back at that level, 210 days.
It's pretty insane. It's pretty insane.
So, if we do get some kind of bottom in June, be a bit premature to call it here, but if we do, then we can expect a potential sweep.
But I would already be buying in case we don't get the sweep. You just don't know, right? So, from a spot portfolio perspective, I would be buying.
And then from a trading perspective, of course, I'd be playing the leverage trades because that's how I make most of my money from a trading perspective.
Make sense?
Uh, a king's mentality 97. Just buy November. My man, I wish it was that easy. Sometimes we can bought him before. And what happens if Bitcoin's $20,000 higher in November and then you you're you're convinced that it will go lower. Kind of like I'm convinced right now that Bitcoin can go below 60K. Um and then we're just higher and higher and you have no allocation. It's dangerous because there's a lot of people.
Yeah. Actually, all 2023 it was literally chopping. We had two years of low prices. Exactly, Gregor. Exactly.
There's a lot of ways that this can play out.
Um, and that's why I still have exposure in the market.
Do you believe in a peak around June where it goes lower towards October? I can't uh I can't answer you because I don't know when when the lows or when the highs can form. All I have is the data and I do think that there's a chance that if Bitcoin breaks down from here, we can create local lows in June.
Is it the low of the bare market? I don't know. Was 60K the low of the bare market? I don't know. I have some Bitcoin exposure. And from a probabilistic perspective, I still think we can go lower, but I'm open to all possibilities.
Legends, destroy that like button if you haven't already. We're at 350 likes. Come on, let's make it to 400 likes. We can do this.
We can do this.
Um, Wizier, I love that so many people are bearish. We know what that means.
Well, yes and no.
I think that it's about 50/50 right now. That's my estimation.
I think Bitcoin can drop, get another bounce, drop, get another bounce, shake both sides of the market out. But I think that on the higher time frame, the the the drop is inevitable in my opinion. Of course, not financial advice.
Do you believe uh any strategy on sizing uh Ganesha apart from conviction as the only way to size appropriately? For example, I was awake for the rave big short but didn't size big. That one is a tricky one. I don't know if I should even talk about that on stream. I know I like shorting shitcoins. I made some money on that one. Not as much as I would have hoped, but you just look for signs of exhaustion, right? when we saw that the funding rate was flipping a little bit again, it was a good it was a good opportunity.
But when it comes to like sizing into a leverage trade is much more difficult than sizing in from a spa portfolio perspective because you know if you believe in Bitcoin in the long term you're not necessarily worried about the draw down if you think that in the next few years it can continue to go up.
I mean, we're not even retest. Like, come on.
Funding rate is slightly positive.
imagine buying rave on spot. Yeah.
Huh?
uh mm mura macar five talking about ETH.
So if we take a look at ETH, I looked at this over the course of the bull market to see how it was performing and um we were we were looking for some outperformance for ETH and let's just go on the weekly.
So I was pretty bullish on ETH against Bitcoin right around here.
This is Wow. It's like over a year ago.
Geez.
This is what I mean when you want to measure your alts against against uh Bitcoin.
We bounced but then we came lower and we didn't even bounce towards the range highs you know. So even athereum bleeds against Bitcoin in the long term. But for me a macro bottom would be around here. This is where we've previously held support and you measure it against Bitcoin. But honestly, I think new like there's a high likelihood that the newer alts that come out can perform better than existing alts, especially the like the dinosaur coins.
Man, just have a look at TRX Bitcoin. No kidding.
Wow.
Say what you want about the founder.
Damn.
So, for those of you that don't understand this, this basically just means that I can't believe I'm going to go on camera and say this. This basically just means that if you were holding TRX since 2021, you outperformed people that held Bitcoin.
That's crazy. I do think that ultimately it will end up rolling over, but I mean, hey, this is good. Great, great, great strength against Bitcoin. Beautiful.
Beautiful.
TRX has overbought on the one day time frame. Okay.
Uh 33 Ethereum. Can you share what were the top three choices that were voted for the tools for the community you mentioned? Um not here, but yeah, I'll mention in the group. I'll mention in the group because we're actively building out, if you guys didn't know, like I'm working with Mindpillar. Um so Andy and Devil to build out these tools to provide for free for my community.
I'll talk about them on the YouTube channel, but for the most part, my community will be getting access to this. And um it's going to be made specifically for you guys for free, for now at least. And if you want access to these kinds of things down the line on top of my trading, you have the first link in the description down below. DM me the keyword CBM on Telegram to be able to join my private group. It's where I share all of my own personal trades. Win or lose, everything is shared there. My current Zcash short was shared there. My Bitcoin short was shared there. Uh my swing Bitcoin short was shared there. My longs, everything.
You know where to find me, guys. It's free. You just have to trade with your own capital.
Um and that's that guys. This price action has been um unfortunate to say the least. We started, we got a nice move into the market open and someone mentioned, I think it was Ganesha, mentioned that maybe we have interesting price action going into the market close, which is still in approximately 3 hours from now. And my friends, I've already been live streaming for over 3 hours. So, I'm going to call it a wrap there. Any relevant updates within my community, especially over the course of the weekend, if I see anything that changed, higher time frame analysis remains exactly the same. Still in all my positions. As always guys, if you enjoyed the content, please do me a favor and smash that like button, subscribe to the channel, turn on the post notification bell, and we'll be back again with a new video. I'll see you in the next one. Have a lovely weekend.
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