The Ships Disagree With the Bond Market

追加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:00]The bond market is screaming inflation.

[00:00:02]The world's cargo ships are quietly building the opposite. Right now, the global container fleet is over 99% full.

[00:00:09]Sounds bullish, but it's only that full because ships sailed a long way around Africa. That detour hides a flood right behind it. Behind it, the order book [music] now sits at 31 to 35% of the entire fleet, the most since 2010, [music] and scrapping just hit a 20-year low. Almost no old ships are leaving.

[00:00:30]Then there's the Red Sea, shelved after the Iran strikes, but not gone. When ships stop the Africa detour, that frees another 6 to 8% of capacity, over 2 million boxes. Spot rates are popping right now on early peak season, but the multi-year contracts already signed 25% cheaper than last year, [music] betting the glut wins. Here's the disconnect nobody's pricing. The bond market is betting on inflation. Shipping just ordered the biggest wave of new ships in 15 years, quietly building the opposite.