Justin Wolfers: Why the Pentagon's $25 Billion War Price Tag Is Missing Trillions

追加: 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]It's incredibly important, but it sounds incredibly dull. It's cash flow accounting versus accrual accounting. I know your eyes are glazing over, mine too, and I love this stuff. But for war, this distinction is absolutely central because war is one of those choices where huge share of the costs show up later.

[00:00:20]Cash flow account accounting asks what money has gone out the door so far.

[00:00:25]That's basically what the Pentagon's $25 billion is doing. It counts the missiles already fired, the planes already flown, the equipment already lost.

[00:00:33]And that's it. Accrual accounting asks the deeper and more important question.

[00:00:37]What costs, losses, and obligations has this decision, the decision to go to war, created?

[00:00:43]We care about all of those costs whether whenever it is that their bills arrive.

[00:00:47]That's the economically serious question. This is where perhaps maybe a few analogies will help.

[00:00:52]You can't say the cost of a puppy is $200 because that was the adoption fee.

[00:00:57]Mate, my good dog Max, he also eats, he gets expensive vet care, and he demands lots of toys.

[00:01:02]You can't say a house only cost the down payment. The mortgage still exists, and you're paying big amounts every month for 30 years.

[00:01:10]And just like that, you can't say a war costs only the missiles already fired.

[00:01:14]Wars also create future obligations.

[00:01:17]Veterans medical care, disability payments. Look, a bloody conflict makes it harder to recruit soldiers, and this shows up as higher recruitment and retention costs in the future.

[00:01:26]And then you can compound all of these costs with the interest bill on the money borrowed to pay for it all.