‼️ THE REASON WHY HIMS KEEPS GOING DOWN

本站添加: 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]Hims just released their earnings, and it was So, investors are asking, "When will the stock go back up?" And some investors are even asking, "Will it ever go back up?" I'm going to break down what you should expect. Let's get into it. All right, so when will Hims go back up?

[00:00:15]Spoiler alert, I do think it will go back up. Now, exactly when it will, let's go over that and why. So, uh if you can, give me a like and subscribe. I really appreciate it.

[00:00:25]Hims, they announced their earnings after hours, and since then it's been down 20%. Now, the day of, it was up 3%.

[00:00:33]So, investors were actually excited.

[00:00:37]Well, they didn't disappoint in in an emotional reaction. It was just to the downside.

[00:00:44]So, it's down 20% since they released their earnings.

[00:00:48]The Novo deal happened down here, and it was in the 14-15 range. It popped all the way up here to around 27.

[00:00:55]That was the the peak of the Novo deal hype. Then, since then, yeah, it kind of went down, up, but we're still down 10% since that hype of the Novo deal. So, why is the stock down?

[00:01:08]Let's just be honest. Their earnings sucked. Revenue went up only 4%. The cost of revenue went up 36%. Right there, investors are just want to sell your stock almost. Unless you come out with some amazing you know, statement of something, right?

[00:01:25]Or it was absolutely expected. Um you know, the gross profit and gross margin both down 8%. Uh the marketing was the only really good thing that they showed anything positive. It went down 4%, but that's because they had to do a lot less marketing cuz they had to change what they were providing in that whole lawsuit, right?

[00:01:45]So, really not great. Their loss or the income from operations, which it was a loss, is -235, you know, uh percent. Net income or loss, they lost 92 million compared to last year's 50 million, which is a 286% difference.

[00:02:04]And then the EPS, which is -300% difference, they lost 40 cents instead of 20 cents as they did last year, or they made 20 cents last year, but they lost 40 this year. The The estimates were around 2 to 4 cents. So, not only See, that's the thing. Not only did you come in with numbers like this, but these were not expected. These were not expected to be this bad.

[00:02:27]One just kind of thing on the side that I really did not like.

[00:02:32]They put 2025 twice. Right here. And they're not comparing to another They're comparing 2026 to 2025. This right here is a huge sheet. This is talking about how many subscribers you gained, how the monthly revenue per average subscriber, the United States revenue, rest of world revenue, and total revenue. This is probably one of the biggest sections of your earnings, and you messed it up.

[00:03:05]I never want to see that again from them. That is a horrible slip-up. I don't know. I I hope that you could somehow go back, and I don't know if it's just on their page. I don't know if you can change it, but this is bad. It's a bad look. Anyway, though, subscribers went up 9%, but the monthly revenue per average subscriber went down 6%. So, that's not good. I said in my last video, if you can keep it around 85 and put put it It was actually 83 for the year end, but if they can have it at 85 to 87, that'd be great. They brought it 80. United States revenue went down 8%.

[00:03:43]That's scaring investors. They're thinking, "Oh, no, they are not going to be able to make any more money."

[00:03:48]They had to wind down and change operations. They went from selling one product to a completely different product. And this completely different product that they were serving is the people they were just fighting with.

[00:04:00]So, there's definitely some legit a lot of that stuff happening. So, there's some explanations reasonable explanation to that. But still, investors never want to see this.

[00:04:11]The rest of the world revenue went up almost 1,000%. Great. That's amazing.

[00:04:16]Still not enough to at all ease the feelings for the uh the United States revenue going down 8%, right? So, the total revenue only went up 4%. So, at least the revenue went up, but that was only because of the rest of the world, right?

[00:04:30]The last time Hims recorded a loss in a quarter was in September 2023. It was 2 and 1/2 years ago. 10 quarters ago. Not good.

[00:04:43]Let's just go through a quick timeline.

[00:04:44]Again, we're going over why the stock is down right now. February 7th, they offer or I think it was like right before February 7th, they offered the the pill and then within days, boom, they took it off the market.

[00:04:58]Novo sues them February 9th.

[00:05:01]So, they're suing Hims and Hims and Hers and Hims stock falls 18%.

[00:05:07]Then, you know, Hims says, "Hey Novo, this is a blatant attack." This is also February 9th.

[00:05:13]Then in March 6th, they make a deal.

[00:05:16]So, you're talking the first 2 months just off the bat were I mean, January wasn't great. They were having, you know, some issues with okay, the GLP-1 shortage is gone and now you have, you know, the FDA is starting to kind of crack down on some people and are you know, are people now just going to go to the the FDA approved one now not not the compound.

[00:05:37]So, it was already having a little bit of, you know, questions around it. But then once they released the pill right after Novo and then they got sued, just that news around it, they probably lost a little bit of customers or a lot little bit of their swag from their brand, whatever it is, right?

[00:05:55]So, that didn't help. Then, by finally March, after 2 months in of the 3-month quarter, you make a deal. But, it doesn't mean that everything is all good, right? It took up to March 26th for them to actually offer anything, right? They couldn't offer it yet because they didn't have all the logistics in place and all that, but now finally March 26th, they were able to offer it on their website or on their platform. So, the whole quarter has a lot There's basically no Wegovy. I mean, you're talking just a few days of Wegovy in there, and there's just And they had to stop with the compounding, and so there's just going to be a lot It was very inconsistent, so what you should be expecting for the future. This was a very crazy quarter.

[00:06:45]If we kind of go through all the news that they did, like what they've had to deal with the last 2 years, they had the first botched Novo deal. They actually released that they were going to do a deal, I believe it was here because their stock crashed when they announced the deal because, again, margins. That's what people don't like is that when you do this deal, it does crunch your margins down. So, investors were not excited about it. Then, they actually said no, Novo uh they said no, Hims & Hers is doing something wrong, and we don't want to do a deal with them.

[00:07:16]The investors were actually happy about it, and it shot the stock up because they're like, "Okay, now you're doing compounded drugs, which are cheaper for you, cheaper to sell, but you're going to be making a lot more money off it."

[00:07:31]Well, the GLP-1 shortage ended, and so the FDA started getting on them and all this stuff, so that was starting to now cloud over it. Then, they got the the lawsuit, right? So, all of these things were starting to happen.

[00:07:45]And then the Novo deal, finally, okay, that's great, but then they had these bad earnings.

[00:07:50]I do believe forward-looking, we're not going to really have all of this stuff. All of this is over with. All of this is done with. This is all done. It's Novo deal, okay, the bad earnings, but the only reason why is because you kind of had, you know, a bad quarter here, and then hopefully we should be moving forward, you know, after that.

[00:08:09]So, when will the stock go up? That's the main question. I was starting to kind of get into, you know, the improvement of the stock.

[00:08:16]If you look at the stock, it's actually up 58% in 68 days since it was crashing when they're, "Okay, we're going to have the lawsuit."

[00:08:24]And then it was kind of bouncing around the 13, 14, yeah, almost hit the 13, basically, but 14, 15 range, 16s.

[00:08:33]It's up 58% since then. Right? So, okay, that's good, right? In 68 days, that's not bad.

[00:08:41]Uh international, up 1,000% about was up 900 something percent.

[00:08:46]That's a key driver for the future, right? If they can keep increasing. They acquired Zava, Eucalyptus. They have H&H Canada now running. Honest Health, that that was, you know, 2021, but these three are all going to be stuff that's really going to be pushing along here now in 2026 and 2027, for sure.

[00:09:06]They have all these acquisitions. They have an outsourcing facility that they bought in 2024. The lab facility, peptide facility, and the Your Bio, which is going to be helping, you know, for the blood draws and all that for at home and stuff.

[00:09:19]Um that's all good, right? The peptide facility, people are excited for that, and of course we just went over the international. So, these are all good.

[00:09:27]They, you know, they're They said that it's going to provide a foundation for their long-term vision, right? So, hopefully everything works out, right?

[00:09:35]That that's the goal. For the quarter of 2026, they expect revenue of 680 million to 700 million, which is 16% year-over-year.

[00:09:44]For the full year of 2026, they expect revenue 2.8 billion to 3. billion 3 billion 19% year-over-year.

[00:09:53]So, nothing crazy, but when you are starting to get your revenue growing more and more, it is harder to grow at those paces of 80% 100 I mean, they did have quarters they were growing 100% year-over-year. That's typically not going to you shouldn't expect that to happen anymore.

[00:10:10]So, unless they acquire someone really big that's doing, you know, 2.8 billion dollars in revenue. So, but, you know, doing 19% with a really botched quarter it might not be so bad, right? So, let's see and then let's see what exactly what happens. Maybe they're kind of sandbagging it and they actually you know, put more.

[00:10:30]So, about the Novo deal, the basically the operation the operational transition is effectively complete, but the financial financial the financial normalization will continue through 2026. Sorry, I've had my computer shut down a few times.

[00:10:46]I'm a little upset. This is like number three version on this. So, the operational pivot they've now shifted to the branded GLP-1s. So, you know, we know that.

[00:10:56]Now they do is so we'll go via Ozempic.

[00:10:59]Uh the customer migration is a substantially complete. So, all the customers that were doing compounded are now back to the on to the branded products. Financial stabilization is in prog- progress. The financial transition, the absorbing of the lower margins, will impact the earnings all the way up until the second half of 2026 with a return to full profitability expected in 2027. And that's because again, they're going to have, you know, international growing. They're going to have these other parts growing, but the margins are going to hurt them this year. That is going to happen.

[00:11:35]The marketing transition is basically complete, right? You had to go from discontinuing all your compounded advertisements to now you're selling FDA uh you know, approved Wegovy.

[00:11:47]Uh the marketing spend has fully reallocated to now that how are they going to do the branded GLP-1s? And now the messaging again is going from you're not having the accessible compounded alternative version. Now you're just you're having the access to the FDA-approved medication to try to make it sound nice.

[00:12:07]We cuz they were trying to they weren't going against the FDA, but they were trying to be the alternative. And now they're just going to be like, "Look, this is what we sell. We you know, we're the third party."

[00:12:16]The logistics and supply chain is basically complete as well. The internal assets that we decommissioned, the company took a 33 million right $33 million write-down. So, they took that big hit and so that pretty much signals that they're done with that category.

[00:12:31]And um the logistics have now shifted from internal manufacturing to now just doing a direct distribution partnership.

[00:12:40]And their shipping cadences, obviously, they the branded medications are now available. So, the shipping is standard uh around the commercially available form uh rather than the custom compounded vials. And then uh the compounded GLP-1s are now only shipped under a clinically necessary exemption, meaning the mass market of the compounds are done.

[00:13:03]Peptides is what really people want to be talking about cuz that's the future.

[00:13:06]We do have the FDA on July 23rd, they're going to be talking about these seven peptides. Um you know, changing the classification or you know, reclassifying them from category two to category one, which would then make them um basically allow compounding pharmacies to manufacture certain peptides, which Hims is one of those compounding manufacturers.

[00:13:29]Why are peptides the future? Well, they have precision targeting. They mimic natural signaling molecule molecules that have very few side effects, lower toxicity, so they're made of amino acids, unlike some chemical drugs, your body breaks it down a lot easier, and then they're faster to develop. Peptides are a lot uh easier and cheaper to design and produce rather than the large protein.

[00:13:52]Really, we're waiting for the oral delivery, the the pills. If you could take it with a pill every day, it's a lot easier. Right now, a lot of people have to take the shot once a week.

[00:14:00]Just that, people don't really want to do as much. So, once we start getting, you know, the technologies, cuz your stomach eats it really quick, so peptides don't really work through the stomach as much, but if they can get that to work, that's they call that the holy grail, basically. Then you can start It opens up peptides for everything.

[00:14:20]Peptides can help with neurodegenerative diseases. Peptides are being engineered to cross the blood-brain barrier. Say that five times fast. To treat previously untreatable conditions like Parkinson's and Alzheimer's, right?

[00:14:33]That would be a big market. Now, that does not mean Hims is going to get into all these markets, but again, it's what peptides do, and they will be compounding, and they'll have, uh, you know, these, uh, facilities that can compound them. So, it doesn't mean that they have to actually sell them on theirs to actually be able to compound for other pharmacies.

[00:14:51]With the rise of superbugs, uh, if you haven't heard of superbugs, it basically all the viruses and the bacteria, all that stuff where it's like, if you take an antibiotic, it's going to fight it, and it will resist it.

[00:15:04]But, the peptides, they can physically disrupt bacterial membranes, making it much harder for bacteria to develop a resistance.

[00:15:11]And of course, AI is now, uh, used to screen trillions of peptide sequences to find it a perfect fit. So, you can have a drug discovery go from years to months with AI and then the customization it allows peptides to basically be personalized tailored to a person's genetic markers, right? Which is what Hims really wants to do.

[00:15:33]The current peptide market is currently undergoing a massive gold rush. Over the next 10 years it's expected to at least more than double.

[00:15:40]Um the current market is about 80 to 140 billion and it's projected to reach about 300 to 335 billion by 2033 2035.

[00:15:48]Keep this in mind that GLP-1 too, that's a peptide, it is the patent becomes public in 2030.

[00:15:57]So, if peptides themselves, just you know, certain peptides become such a big market by 2033 2035, then 2030 GLP-1 becomes a public patent where Hims doesn't have to pay and have their margins aren't lower or you know, now it's their stuff that they can produce and they can make.

[00:16:17]By 2030, that's only in 3 and 1/2 years.

[00:16:20]I know that seems like kind of far, but 3 and 1/2 years you're talking about a massive just continued to grow and when once that hits, your margins immediately change just like this quarter. It'll be the exact opposite. Now, obviously it's 3 and 1/2 years away, but they are excited, Hims, and they are going to get into peptides. I'll actually play a clip. Andrew Dudum had he was on this podcast and he said that right now Hims and Hers is seen as a GLP-1 company. And at first they were seen as an ED company and then they were seen as a hair loss they were seen as all these little, you know, the depending on what they were putting out there, the product that which was the most popular, that's kind of what they were seen as. And he said that they're going to be seen as a peptide company in about a year.

[00:17:07]That tells me that they want to be doing peptides in about a year.

[00:17:12]But he also did say, I'll put this clip, too, that they don't want to be first in the market. They want to be best in market.

[00:17:20]So, once peptides we have the July 23rd meeting going and let's say they actually reclassify it, you know, in in a few months by let's say September or something they're able to actually do something. They're not going to come out right away with the product. They're going to make sure it's tested. They're going to make sure everything is good about it.

[00:17:39]But, the fact that they do say they're going to be a peptides company seen as a peptides company in 1 year, that does make me feel like, okay, they are going to be pushing it as fast as they can. So, here are the clips. We launched GLP-1's and everyone said, "Oh, now you're just a weight loss business." And, you know, a year from now people will say, "Oh, you're just like a peptides business."

[00:17:58]Probably, if I were to take a guess.

[00:17:59]But, what I always come back to is not being first, but being best. So, that from a brand standpoint, people know Hims and Hers to be high quality and trusted. Like, when we actually bring something to market, you know it's safe. You know it's done right and you know it could be something that's that's powerful and and important for your for your health. And, as you can see the last year the interest in peptides, this is on Google Trends, the peptide interest has gone up a lot. In the 5 years, obviously again is mostly from 2025 into 2026 where that big growth has happened. As it's 20 2004 up to present, again, really a big gold rush right now.

[00:18:38]Um and it's a you know, peptides are good it's not pep- peptides are not new.

[00:18:42]They are not new, but they are very they're very good. They're good, they're safe if you can get them, you know, from the right person.

[00:18:53]If you can get them from the right guy around the corner, no. If you can get peptides from the right company, the right pharmacy, you know, depending on what the peptides is and all that, it works well for you and they're safe. They're better than like these chemicals and all that stuff.

[00:19:05]So, it is good. They're not new, but AI has been able to really push what they can be used for and again AI is just changing how the timeline of things. So, that's good. So, I I do appreciate everyone for watching. I do believe uh Hims is going to go up.

[00:19:26]I you know, I'm not going to say when.

[00:19:29]You never know with a stock like Hims, it can it could go back down to 15. I'm I don't think it will, but it could. It could.

[00:19:37]For all I know, it could go right back down to 15.

[00:19:41]And then it I I also think it can go up to 60. I think it can go up to 60 and I think it just go everywhere. That's what this does.

[00:19:48]>> [sighs] >> But I'm you I don't know if you you heard me a few times I've mentioned 2030 and 2033 about the peptides. I mean, I'm trying to think long-term and I know, you know, you know, I want to say, "Okay, well, things can happen between now and then and there's other growth company, whatever." But, this company is not valued that much.

[00:20:10]You know, they're not making that much money for what they could potentially be doing.

[00:20:18]I do not see the market cap really moving significantly lower than where it's touched before. I don't think this is going to be a stock that has to do a stock split where it's, you know, the stock is at $3, $2 and now they have to do a stock split because it's so low.

[00:20:36]No.

[00:20:37]If anything, they'll have to do the other stock you know, a stock split where I I forgot if it's reverse stock split, which one's which, but like the stock split is where it's the stock's too high, right? I guess the reverse is when it's you have it at $2 and you're like, "Oh, I want it to be 20." And then you do a 10:1. So, this stock I can see eventually hitting like $300 and then having to do a stock split where it's now 10:1 and it's back to back to 30, right? I I just don't see Hims fail unless they just fail completely. It's going to be one of the other, obviously. I do not think Hims is going to just Yeah, I think they're going to go out swinging. So, they're going to be one of the top dogs or they're going to do something that really messes them up, maybe. Or maybe they're number two in the business. I don't know, but anyway, I do believe long-term in the company.

[00:21:25]I'm investing into it. Um So, I put my money where my mouth is.

[00:21:30]And and that's that. So, yeah, thank you for watching. I really appreciate it.

[00:21:33]Give a like and subscribe if you can and never forget to Earn it, save it, invest it. Buy low, sell high. I want assets, not liabilities, and you can count ON COMPOUNDED INTEREST.