Market volatility is driven by multiple interconnected factors including options expiry events, institutional capital flows, and macroeconomic conditions such as money supply expansion. When $9 billion in Bitcoin options expired, the market experienced significant price swings around the $74K support level, demonstrating how derivative expiration can create short-term volatility. The broader market context shows that traditional valuation metrics like forward P/E ratios (Nvidia at 17, Costco at 45) help identify potential bubbles, while the AI revolution continues to drive capital flows into related assets despite broader market uncertainty.
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Deep Dive
π₯ Blow Ups, Outages, Options Expiry! Level 4 π and Crazy Minting GaloreAdded:
Hello everybody. It's Friday Fire. Today we're going to talk about all the things that are blowing up in the world. And quite a few things are blowing up. And I forgot to add one thing that's blowing up too. This Palunteer as predicted on Wednesday. So let me know if you got into the killbox or not because it popped today. Anyway, we have a lot more other stuff to discuss. Big thank you to the mods in the chat and everybody for being here. This one is called What's Blowing Up. Sounds ominous and not financial advice. And uh big shout out to Kim K. I've been in your Patreon for about a year and my portfolios have soared thanks to you. Yes, awesome news.
That's the mission. Thank you for being part of the family, Kim. And I love when the ladies are in the show in the in the community as well. Let's get to sentiment and signals. Big divergence here between fear and greed, between stock markets, but stock markets been at 60 for like weeks now. And crypto is back to extreme fear once again. We've tiptoed back into the extreme fear stratosphere because things are blowing up in all sorts of directions. And Bitcoin is right at that 74k cusp. We'll talk about the significance of the passage of that level.
You thought I was going to say something else, didn't you? It's Friday. I like to joke around a bit. I should have been a standup comedian. Anyway, Bitcoin and crypto. First of all, we're down 3% for the month of May. This is the first time this month has been down well over the last couple of days, which kind of sucks. May should be the second strongest month of the year. And it's not. Everything continues to be different for the last 18 months. Andy Pendy Swiper, thank you for coming. And this is part of the problem. The Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding out hard, real, real hard. It's kind of ugly out there. And I wonder why. You know, they were they were stacking so well for like 11 weeks and then all of a sudden, okay guys, let's pack this in and leave. Last three weeks have been harsh. Billion dollars, $1.2 billion. And so far this week, another $1.2 billion out. Remember, every billion bucks we lose in the ETFs, the price falls by about 3%. And the opposite is true. So, taking that into account, doing a rough calculation, we are down about 3.6 billion. We should be down 10%, but we're not, which is good.
That means somebody else is stacking secretly on the side. Anyhow, this is the key level here. Shout out to Merlin the trader. Uh but today is is a big day, very volatile day for Bitcoin, but the most volatile day of the month actually because 9 billion in Bitcoin options are expiring. In fact, they just expired. And looking at the breakdown, there's about 1.05 billion in puts and versus a huge amount in calls. The battle lines are drawn. And the question is if we stay above 74K, which we just did for a while and then it dipped down below again about about 500 bucks, uh the bulls win and below is where the bears win. That's the max pain point right there in the middle. Anyway, Bitcoin also, and this is by virtue of the fact that, you know, Bitcoin has kind of sucked for quite a while, and the price is a little bit down again, again, call it 74K between friends, but other assets have gone crazy. And Bitcoin is now number 28 on the list of assets globally. I'll try to rattle off a few others. Canadian dollars, shout out to the Canadians, $2 trillion of your fiat floating around. Broadcom, the exact same amount, number 22. TSM, 2 trillion. Russian ruble 1.84 trillion, Saudi Rankco 1.8 trillion, and Tesla has eclipsed Bitcoin in market cap 1.66 trillion, Meta 1.6. Oh, Tesla's also eclipse meta. And Meta has eclipsed Bitcoin. And then the Brazilian Royale.
Shout out to the Brazilians if there's any out there for the tennis result they got. And Swiss Frank, 1.42 trillion. It's incredible how many Swiss Franks there are considering how small the population is.
I should calculate actually the amount of fiat per capita. I'm going to do that this afternoon because that stuff intrigues me as a former person who used to do a lot of FX. Anyway, back to different cryptos. Solid ETFs continue.
Four weeks of pure positiveness. This is the weird rotation I've been talking about for a long time. And hype hype is in. There are now hype ETFs. very new, very nent, but they pulled in 25 million this week so far as well. Very good. So, like the narratives are like hype, Zcash, Salana, all all these three shiny new things, but they're not even new things are getting all the attention.
And Ethereum bleeding out nearly a quarter of a billion dollars this week so far. And the week isn't even over because this does not take into account today's outflow. If there is an outflow today, who knows? Maybe a billion dollars flows into ETH today, I'm not sure.
But these this shows you a huge huge disjoint between again things like Hype, the big money per trading platform, Saul, the leading L1 by far, and Bitcoin and ETH. Anyhow, speaking of other cryptos, this one is called Sui and it's been it was down yesterday for over five hours and then they repaired something. They patched it up and then it went down again today per Coin Bureau. Second straight day of outages.
And I know crypto couldn't go down out.
I mean, Salani used to go down over 3 years ago, but that was due to congestion due to crazy amounts of volumes of activities. This one is due to software glitch uh not traffic and I shared all my charts and metrics and benchmarks of solver sui on Patreon uh earlier today.
So a lot of people saying should I buy sooie now the short answer is it's still very expensive compared to everything that Salana does. Anyway, moving on more crypto stuff. This guy lost it on TV. His name is Jamie Diamond, head of JP Morgan. And he used some very colorful language as well, which I will not repeat because this is a familyfriendly show.
But oh my god, he absolutely lost his mind on TV. He hates the Clarity Act. He does not want stable coins offering yield because he knows it'll drain billions from his bank. Banksters do not like do not like stable coins and crypto, etc., unless they can control themselves and own everything. And he said they're still looking to fight the Clarity Act. And he said he will not bow down bow down to Brian Armstrong from Coinbase. And he said Brian Armstrong is putting hundreds of millions of dollars into fighting for the Clary Act. So good for Brian Armstrong um from Coinbase.
But it was just interesting to see the colorful language from this guy. He was downright livid. Absolutely spitting fire. It was fun to watch. Anyhow, moving on. Markets and AI. Uh, the month I'm going to turn off my camera here, see the full screen. The month of May was absolutely pretty wild. It was a crazy 2026 so far in terms of AS stocks.
Okay, absolutely crazy, but it continues even in May. So, as I did warn you in April, at the very end of April, I think it was a Friday or a Tuesday, I said, "Don't do the sell in May. Go away."
Doesn't work. Okay? It's an old wives tale. Now there's some massive moves across the board. Mic Micron up 81%.
This month AMD 54% Tesla 17%.
These are absolutely huge moves after already having huge moves too. Um Microsoft 4%, Google 10%, Apple 16%.
Uh Eli Liy which is kind of like a noun.
AI Pharma 27%. Again, the AI narrative is alive and well, not dead. Meta down 7%.
Broadcom 8%. I say that already. So, all in all, May has been very good. Amazon 5% too, despite Amazon having a little bit of news, which we'll get to in a second. Now, for those bubbleicious talkers, when we look at the bubbles, question is where is the bubble?
Costco. That is a big uh warehouse store. PE of 45. Walmart PE of 36. Nvidia PE of 17. These are forward pees by the way. These are for the earnings over the next 12 months.
The question is which one is the bubble?
Stodgy retail or the company behind the brains that make the brains that power the AI? Ask the question. Anyway, you guys can figure that out. And this was uh super exciting yesterday. Elon Musk and the head of AI at Tesla were posting news from the Giga Texas factory. The cyber cabs are just popping out. Like in this little clip, three of them come out in the space of like 30 seconds. The cyber cabs are being produced and they're driving themselves out themselves by themselves out of the Giga Texas factory. But the most important thing is what Ashok said here. He's the head of AI. He said soon it'll be driving itself to Austin City reporting for Judy. So just think of that the factory is there and it spits out these little puppies gives birth to these beautiful little shiny gold things and then they trot on down downtown which takes about 15 to 20 minutes from the factory and they go into service or who knows maybe somebody at the factory may need a ride downtown.
They can just hail a ride. Maybe there's an employee discount. I don't know. But the point is he said soon soon. Lots of interesting news out of Texas. Texas is a very forwardthinking state. Shout out to anybody in the big loan state. And other things you can actually do in Texas too is this. You can I think they call it self-register, self-certify uh the software running taxis as level four. And the state of Texas has authorized Tesla to operate driverless vehicles commercially under the new law that took effect yesterday, May 28th. I think it's the 29th today. Yeah, it took effect yesterday.
And uh Tesla is self-certified. So, what's going to happen is slowly than suddenly, literally, I think in the next, I don't know if it's going to be 2 weeks or 8 weeks or 16 weeks, but Tesla's going to press a button and there will be thousands of these things running around Texas and then California and then Arizona, Nevada, etc. They're just getting comfortable with their infrastructure and operations. So yes, people are impatient, very slow, but if you saw the crash nearly happened on Whimo today in in Los Angeles, you'd think hm they're doing the right thing.
Anyway, it's going big. Now, the other thing that's going big, too, is shout out to Joe Tegmire. I'm covering his image. I took his little handle there from Twitter. He took this great shot yesterday from the drone. Basically, the 10 million bot factory. That's the footprint you see. It's already going up. They got the foundation concrete little pillar things in place and they're already standing up huge big metal pillars and like the gig of Texas is probably be a multi-story thing that will be able to create 10 million bots a year. Insane. Absolutely insane. It's very real. And they already are just they have dismantled the X and S lines in Fremont, California. And they're beginning to assemble the Optimus line there, too. But that will only produce a million a year. But just think of the scale. And by the way, if you are a runner and you want to run around the perimeter of this factory, I think it's like three miles or five miles or very long distance. Uh it doesn't look that big in the picture, but it's massive.
Very big indeed. Now, it's not just Tesla doing some interesting things, too. IBM has decided to plunk down 10 billion on Quantum. Remember, they make about cash flow, I think about 15 billion a year. They're going to be ch throwing in nearly all of that cash flow into quantum computing over the next five years to build the ultimate quantum computer and that is a major conviction and I I know that IBM has dabbling with quantum for a long time. Um you know the Watson era etc. But this will be very I don't know if Watson was a quantum computer but it was a very powerful supercomputer. We'll see what they do and see what the other competition do too. But quantum is now hot because the US president said they will also co-invest in this space. And anthropic more AI and comput stuff. They just closed their $65 billion series H.
65 billion. That's the biggest funding round in history and it reinforced the capital is still flooding into AI not slowing down and uh a lot of really big players behind this too. Again valuation I think was 965 billion as well smoking open AI as we're seen in the prophecy.
Sam Alman is his company is now less value than the guy that used to work for him. That's how quick, Anthropic, and Dario have pulled things off. Let's get to space because this is more stuff blowing up here. First thing is blowing up. This actually looks like a brain. I created this using AI. It was fun. This is the number of millionaires minted that will be minted over the next 12 to 14 days. is basically the employees of SpaceX for 4 thou over 4,000 of them will be sitting on at least a million dollars in less than two weeks including about 500 people hitting 100 million mark if I'm not mistaken and a bunch of billionaires etc. This is the wealth effect of Elon Musk. And people criticize Elon Musk for saying, "Oh, you're just you're just a billionaire."
And and a lot of people now are saying billionaires should be illegal. But remember, this stuff actually trickles down. It doesn't all flow to him. Look at all of these new millionaires. We're talking 500 plus, including people worth over 100 million, people worth over a billion, people worth over 500 million, uh, that have just been there, you know, for 10 years or more. Again, they got in early, they got in hard, and they stay dedicated. And the more you go to the right, you see the bubbles get smaller.
That's the wealth. The more you go to the left, that's the beginning of time.
Let me try to remember the dates. Uh the big yellow bubbles are above uh well, pre202 and then you got the 2002, 2008, 2010 to 2018, and post 2018.
That's the last piece on the right there. So again, wealth takes time to cook, but if you are in a winner or you own a winner, hold on to it because it pays off over time. Now, more lies. I didn't expect this from Zero Hedge, but they reported SpaceX reportedly lowers IPO valuation target. No, they didn't.
That's not true. But the mainstream media is out with their knives and daggers trying to stick something into SpaceX. Everybody wants it to be a failure. Again, it's another one of those most hated assets that I tend to typically be in. Neil Mus said, "Nope, this is false." Boom. Don't trust media.
And we had a 1 kiloton yield explosion last night uh from Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin that is like a nuclear weapon or a little nuclear weapon and it resulted in a huge mushroom cloud that could be seen from 100 miles away or more. It was a very violent event. Fortunately, nobody was injured, but their whole operation was destroyed. And everything blew up so much there's no evidence of discovering exactly what made it blow up as well. And even their landing pad is destroyed. So, it's going to put Amazon back. Amazon is trying to build a constellation to compete with Starlink.
That's going to be set very far back as well as well as the other companies like ESTS that rely even NASA that rely on Blue Origin for moving heavy things into space program is tough. Now why do we care? Because all roads lead to you guessed it SpaceX. SpaceX now the only player that can put heavy stuff into space and do it reliably. uh it'll be Blue Origin will come back, but they're going to lose so much time, especially when it comes to building a constellation in space because SpaceX is moving forward in leaps and bounds. And another thing that's moving forward in leaps and bounds, which is insane. This is the amount of synthetic ETFs around SpaceX. Absolutely out of control.
All the names, you know, the the ProShares, etc., direction total granite leverage shares yield max they got the 2x in here 2x long 2x is short all across the board automatic calls I mean the thing hasn't even IPOed yet and these are already built and ready to go but the more tools that people have at their fingertips and I'm not a fan of leverage ETFs I think they're very risky but it brings more money to the space and to the asset which is a Good thing for SpaceX, too. Let's talk about macro, too, cuz nothing is blowing up as the amount of M2 money supply, not only globally, but also US. Shout out to Charlie Bolo. This is his chart.
M2 is cooking. The Fed expanded their money supply by 9 trillion under Jerome Powell. As you know, I was not a fan of Jerome Powell. I didn't agree with his policies but he blamed inflation under his tenure on things that kind of he did never once pointed the increase in money supply causing inflation which of course it does he said other things I can't remember the exact words but supply shocks and what was the famous word temporary inflation or I don't know crazy times but this is what causes inflation my friends money supply growth but it also inflates assets So if we go back to how Bitcoin is number 28, we got all these new assets that are now above it. They are also inflating, including the currencies, including the value of things and inflation. Another view of inflation.
Shout out to ecoinometrics too.
Inflation keeps on rising. We are back at the highest level of core inflation since, let me try to guess this. I got to zoom into the chart so I can see. We have the highest core inflation since early 2023. So in three years more three and a half years uh record high inflation that is scary and that is after all of the high rate hikes etc that have done nothing because this is driven by two things one oil two money supply don't overthink it but this reaceleration is one of the reasons why the treasury yields are going up which should technically be spooking risk assets but not during the air revolution again things are different this time and finishing with meme dour. When I miss one, people say, "Where's the meme dour?" This is the Amazon return. If you do need to return your Glen Rocket, I think they're $59 million each at least.
Uh, you got to note the reason item not as subscribed, defective, or damaged or cancelled or too explody, though. That's very funny. I shouldn't laugh at that, but I'm very happy nobody is hurt. They will come back. I hope you all enjoyed the show. Thank you all for coming.
Happy Friday, by the way. Interestingly, Q&A will be tomorrow. I have to go to something on Sunday. We'll tell you more on that on Patreon in a little while, too. Thank you, Swiping, Swiping, Auntie Pandy, Nalm. Appreciate you all for being here, as well as Cipher Sniper, Sean D, K8, TND must be out in the golf course.
Thank you all for coming, my friends.
See you tomorrow. Bye-bye.
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