Economic equilibrium is a state where multiple variables (growth, labor market, exchange rates, stock prices) assume stable values, and when external shocks occur, the economy does not simply return to its previous state but instead reaches a new equilibrium based on the shock's magnitude, duration, and the economy's structural characteristics such as employment levels, government intervention capacity, central bank credibility, and economic indexation.
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Dia de indicadores de atividade | Call de Abertur 21/05/2026 8:00 hsAdded:
[Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] Hello, good morning everyone. This is the opening column for this Thursday, May 21, 2025.
The market today is experiencing a moment of disappointment with Nvidia's results. Despite being a huge result, the market continues to feel its way regarding the risks involved in this euphoria about the prospect of profit growth in the artificial intelligence sector. He's the one who's been turbocharging the dynamics of the American economy. He is the one who is driving growth through infrastructure projects, data center construction, and demand for equipment, which temporarily increases employment levels.
This euphoria, she had, let's say, a little dehydration yesterday after the NVID result.
That's a question for social psychologists to evaluate, right? Because after such a big result, the market throws the mooring line into the river, right? A mooring anchor is the small anchor of a small boat or a boat that fishes in a river or even at sea.
And the boat that was going down the river got stuck there at that point with this... moment of... Once again, Nvidia's result was absolutely... gigantic. It grossed $82 billion in the first quarter.
It was a striking thing from the point of view of perception, uh uh uh uh, that, let's say, at least in the first quarter, it met, along with other companies in the sector, the goal of achieving good results. But it's the same old story, NVIDIA has been going through an extremely strong demand cycle right now.
because of the gigantic investments in data centers.
And it's possible that these investments will reach their peak and then, you know, stabilize. Moreover, investments in data centers are made through debt, not just through issuing shares; it's through issuing debt. And debt is much more expensive due to rising interest rates worldwide.
[snoring] American interest rates are at a crazy level.
And the Japanese interest rate as well. And people are starting to wonder how long this higher interest rate will last. Looking at the fundamentals of the economy, it's always going to be higher, right?
Well, I think it's worth highlighting yet another absurd surge in the Korean stock market.
The COSP of the University of Cu (CU) from the CU scholarship rose 842 today. And that, of course, has to do with Samsung, right? Well, if there's anyone who still needs to be priced very carefully, it 's Samsung.
Why is that?
Because she's a major player in building artificial intelligence infrastructure, right?
The resources it produces are very valuable for artificial intelligence, for every moment we experience in terms of infrastructure and technology. Why is this important? Because even though it doesn't make the artificial intelligence chips that Nvidia does, it does make data storage and data processing chips for a myriad of things.
[snoring] And it wasn't priced in that way. And it went up 8.5% today in Korean trading. It hit the all-time high, which had been reached on May 13th at 298,000, and now it has a market capitalization of 1.756 billion dollars, which is absolutely impressive, isn't it? If we went up to someone who lived on Earth two years ago and told them it was worth that much, they'd hit us over the head and say we were crazy. So, uh, uh, that's the current market scenario. We'll have a lot of activity data today.
Let's see if this data justifies the current situation or not. And we're going to discuss that.
Let me see the questions that are already there.
Even with the end of the war, it will take time for the price of oil to hit inflation and interest rates. Can streetcars get too high?
Giovani. Yes, that's a good discussion. What is Giovan saying?
The oil came, and it gave that upward flick.
It went up from 60 to 110, 100, 105, and is now at 107.
After the war ends, how long will it take for the price of oil to fall? Given this jolt he gave to inflation, this push, how long does it take for inflation to rise and then fall? This is an important issue.
When you have the economy at a certain moment, it's in a certain equilibrium, or as some economists like to say, in a certain state, right? Each variable assumes a value: growth, labor market, exchange rate, stock prices, furniture prices, number of hours worked, credit stocks. We have this initial equilibrium, and then suddenly a shock comes along and disrupts this equilibrium.
This equilibrium, it doesn't tend to return to the previous equilibrium, right? It can return to a similar equilibrium, and it will depend on a few initial things. First, from the initial state that this equilibrium was in, right? You have a pool table with the balls set up, and you're about to take your first shot.
Where the balls go, the new state that implies the positioning of the balls on the table. This state will depend on the force of the hit you made, the direction the ball took on the first hit, where it hits the initial triangle of the balls, right? And then, in the positioning of the balls, this combination of vectors and positions will define where the balls go and where they stop. It's not a simple, trivial balancing act for you to achieve. Now imagine the economy as a billiard table the size of, say, the state of Minas Gerais, with millions of balls that are going to be thrown [clearing throat] and are going to assume a new position.
You can't naively assume that the balance returns to normal after a blow like that; it doesn't return to the way it was before a blow like that. It 's hard to know exactly where it's going, isn't it? There are exercises that we do with DSGE models, general equilibrium, and dynamic equilibrium.
[snoring] Uh, there are possibilities that we try to infer initially.
Now, well, it will depend on the magnitude of the shock, the duration of that shock, and what the level of employment and activity was like before that shock.
It will depend on the government's capacity for intervention and, of course, it will depend on expectations, it will depend on the level of credibility of the Central Bank, it will also depend, uh, importantly, on the indexation of the economy.
All of this is difficult for us to measure. Okay, but anyway, let's go.
The longer this shock lasts, the longer oil remains at a very high level, the longer the recovery will take and the higher the price level will be after inflation stabilizes.
Why? Because by staying up there longer, the economy's ability to spread that price increase is greater, right? So, look, oil went to 110, but it'll come back down quickly, nobody's going to raise prices because of that, right? The fuel price goes up at the pump, then it goes down, and he says: "I'm not going to raise my price, because I'll lose customers if I do.
Just wait, the gasoline price will go down soon."
But as gasoline continues to get more expensive, diesel continues to get more expensive, things continue to get more expensive, the agent ends up being convinced that it's better to pass on the prices than to wait for the price to fall again.
Then, at that moment, the price level goes up.
And when the price level goes up, it 's very difficult for it to fall again.
If the price level rises, and rises differently for each economic agent, the equilibrium will not remain the same. So you have a redistribution of what we call markups, right, of how much each one earns from the sale of their product, and this affects the new equilibrium.
So, answering Giovan's simple question after half an hour, look, it's very likely that the longer it takes for oil prices to fall, the more agents will pass on that increase in oil prices, but it's also likely that future inflation will take longer to fall.
And even if it takes a while to fall, even if it does fall, it's possible that its effect on longer-term interest rates will be more resilient, it will take longer to dissipate, so interest rates will remain higher over time. If this is true, the effects on economic activity will be more intense.
So, the war is lasting too long. Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu wanted to end the war in two weeks.
We're already heading into March, April, May, three months of war and nothing. Oil at 107.
William Musk is going to send investors' money into space.
Who would be crazy enough to invest in an IPO like that?
Evaldo, there are crazy people out there who would do that, yes.
Tesla is still around.
SpaceX is a company that is Tesla cubed.
Anyone who buys into Ein Musk is saying, if you distrust him today it's because you lack foresight. You're not a daring guy.
Willam Musk is a daring guy, and so on. Good morning, Víor. How are you doing?
Okay, let's go, everyone. I'm going to ask anyone on YouTube to give it a like.
Anyone watching can leave a comment later, whatever the comment may be, they can complain because Pedro wasn't called up.
And the root call in Czan and so on and so forth.
Yes, I have a few calls to make this week.
So, today I'm going to do, let me write it down here, today, today Clim Suzano.
Tomorrow, I'm going to try to get some roots in Czan. There's more, you know? Because, well, I know I owe something here. That's too much.
It's an invention, that's what it is, there it is.
I'll do it tomorrow, then. Oh, oh, oh, Vittor. It's OK.
OK. Yes. Let's go then.
[snoring] Let's go. Come on, come on, come on.
Ni, the Tokyo stock exchange, fell, then rose to 61, uh, 684.
That's a rise of 3.14.
Ah, it recovered a significant portion of what was lost, but to get back to 64, 65 again, there's a long way to go, right? Not Hong Kong, Shanghai.
Shanghai fell 204 to 77.
204.
Uh, Hong Kong is 03, China is 0.82. Cu, as I said, went up 8 and 42 and that increase was Samsung again. Samsung went up, up 8.51.
What a huge blow those who have bought into Samsung are taking.
They said the same thing about Columbus when he set sail for America.
[snoring] Yeah, more or less. More or less, because this story that Columbus didn't know America was here is nonsense. Everyone already knew that America existed at this point in the game. The Portuguese had already come here, right? Ah, then OK.
But we'll see. Soft Bank also rose significantly, by almost 20%. It's because he has shares in that field, right?
Moving on, uh, Bomba, which is 018, and Sydney went up 1.47. Frankfurt. Frankfurt is at 24,577.
That's a drop of 0.65.
London fell 0.58.
Paris fell 0.58.
It's falling apart, isn't it? Brussels 0-0. And finally, Euro 100, which is 0.38. Futures of the United States. Dow Jones falls 031. 100 500 to 7 423 K 051 Nasdaq 2939 men 0 and 051 in reality the SNP is 0, sorry.
And Russell crashed 079. What a hit, huh? Let's see how Nvidia is doing in the pre-market for this group [clearing throat], they're so worried, hitting % in the pre-market. Nvidia is increasing by 0.48.
[snoring] Reversed.
Ah, goal, let's see. Goal.
Meta dropping 044.
Eh, it's Google alphas. Alpha dropping 014.
Let's catch Apple.
[snoring] Apple dropping 0.22. Let's catch Microsoft dropping 0.45.
Let's get a Tesla. Why am I doing this? to see who's dragging down the mess. Therefore, Nídeo can no longer be held responsible. Tesla is exactly what I'm talking about, Tesla is up 1.24 after having gone up 3.25 yesterday.
Tesla's market value today is $1.57 trillion.
Price-to-earnings ratio, 380 years. You buy this stock, and it takes 380 years for you to see a return, given its current profit.
And finally, we'll see Oracle.
Oracle, let's go.
0.98 high. Well, since we're here, let's take a look at our ADRs. PBR, how's it going? PBR needs to be going up.
PBR up 1.21 to $. It recovered the $ it had lost yesterday, up 1.21. We 'll see. Eh, eh, it's worth it, it's worth it, it's 0.92, which is fair because the iron ore is falling, as we'll see, it's a 16.20.92 drop.
And let's finally get to EWZ, shall we?
EWZ crashes.
EWZ drops 084.
Yes, it drops.
Good morning, Humberto.
So, let's get back to our work.
Brand 10728 crude oil. 107.28 is a rise of 2.15. Everything goes up again.
Ah, WTI is up 2.72, natural gas is up 0.82. The dies is 1.70.
Gold falls 4515.
That's a drop of 0.43.
Silver that costs 1.40. Platinum 1.21% contains 1% copper.
Mího cai 0,27. Soybeans 0 to 0. Ox 0.84 drop. Sugar rises 1.22 and coffee rises 0.32 to 26915.
An increase of 0.32. Iron ore falls, down 1.31.
Let's take things as they are in the present day.
Cryptoisa was 77,285. Yesterday it was 77,526.
So it dropped, right? It fell 285, a drop of 0.41 compared to the closing price. A drop of 0.45. It's OK?
From here we're going for the 10-year title, United States. A 10-year Treasury yields 461%.
It's a two-basis-point increase.
It stopped the fall, right?
This is important.
10 years of Germany, 3.11.
It's a one basis point increase.
Japan dropped one point. 275 is a drop of one basis point.
OK. The euro is down 0.15, the pound is at 0, and the y is losing 0.11. As a result, the DXY rises to 99.27.
Ah, a slight increase of 0.18.
And the VIX index, that one at 1781, interrupted its fall and went up a little.
Clearly, the market bias today is negative, right? United States falling, Europe falling, Vale falling, EWZ falling, only Petrobras rising.
But this is a sign of high inflation in the future, and so on. Okay, let's get today's calendar now.
Calendas, let's go.
Before the calendar, on Tuesday the 19th, the foreigners sent away 903 million reais, they sent it away, they took it out of the stock market, right?
So, from April 15th until now, there have been 23 trading days.
They invested money in those 23 auctions. One two two auctions. 21 of the auctions were withdrawn.
It was just one. No, two. two auctions.
So, uh, in the month they have an output of 10.5%.
Ah, uh, April 15th, almost 24 million reais outflow and R$5 billion more for the year.
Pepundesbank, Germany's central bank, released a monthly report projecting a fiscal deficit of 4% in 2026.
Germany is pursuing an expansionary fiscal policy.
Well, to determine if it's expansionary, no, ideally you should look at the primary deficit, okay? This deficit is the nominal deficit.
To give you an idea, the Basel agreement, which, let's say, paved the way for the monetary unification of Europe, stipulated or required that the countries of the European Union, of the eurozone, would have a deficit of 3.5% at most, then 3%.
It was very difficult to beat that. So it was in the 90s.
It was a war, a European war to adjust the public deficit. Back then, the primary deficit was high and interest rates were high because you were in a different, much higher inflationary regime. [snoring] It was one that procó managed to stabilize the deficit.
They kept the deficit reasonably under control throughout that period, and now it's coming back, right? When inflation rises, the nominal deficit rises. Consider the case of Brazil. What to do? Okay, let's go.
Congratulations, congratulations, congratulations. So, those people who say you can issue debt without any problem really don't know what they're talking about.
Roberto Auch is sending an email.
I remember having calls with him during the pandemic. The calls were Rivotril at the time. And even? Are you sending emails? AND.
I talk to him almost every day, you know? They are very good people.
Hi, Felipe. Okay, Pepa. What exactly does DXY in 99 mean? that the dollar has reached a point of stability in the world's economies.
No, user, the DXY value means absolutely nothing, because it's a basket of currencies with an initial value of 100. And what the index does is monitor currency fluctuations. As currencies fluctuate against the dollar, this index number goes up or down, okay?
So, strictly speaking, it doesn't mean anything. What matters is the direction it takes over time.
And now, this direction is important.
Why? Because it went from a number of 96 to one close to 100. That indicates that the dollar went up. Why did it go up there?
because of global instability, volatility, war, and aversion to risk. That's the meaning.
But that doesn't mean there's an ideal number, up or down. That's not what I mean. The important thing is for us to get the business in the right direction, okay?
So, if it goes up 100, 101, 102, 103, then the dollar is rising relative to the basket of currencies.
The currencies with the highest weight are the euro, the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc, the British pound, and a few others. It's OK? We move on.
Let's now look at today's calendar.
[snoring] Look, Piemai came out in Germany, it came below 50. Now that has significance here. Below 50 is contraction, above 50 is expansion. Hey, Hector.
Save yourself too, my friend. Let's go.
Well, industry in Germany contracted quite a bit, going from 51 to 49 in services. He performed better than expected, scoring 47.8, while the expected score was 47.1.
Germany's composite index came in [growling] at 48.6 in the eurozone, of course, with Germany falling to a little worse than expected, at 51.4, but it's still in expansion territory.
Services below, contract 46.4.
Ah, uh, the current account balance, which is the sum of the trade balance plus the services balance, came in at a positive 14.9 billion, okay? Uh, uh, that seasonally adjusted, non- seasonally adjusted, is 24 billion. Well, what matters is that in a little while we'll have the Philadelphia Fed's activity index, unemployment claims, the Philadelphia Fed's employment index, the housing market data, and the Philadelphia Fed's expectations index.
Then there's the PMI at 11 AM, and at 3:15 PM, the US PMI.
Then there's the Atlanta Fed Pinal indicator, which is extremely important.
Here is the consumer confidence index for the eurozone at 11:00 AM.
At 12 PM there's the Kansas City Fed's manufacturing activity index, and at 2 PM there's what I consider quite important, the 10- year auction.
Well, regarding inflation-indexed treasury bonds, the NTNBs from the gringos tips, well, it comes out at 11, or rather at 2 pm.
So, it's a day with a lot of... uh... uh... index activity, the market will be watching them closely, right? Most importantly, the group is now also waiting for the United States [clearing throat] to show some progress regarding peace negotiations with Iran, right? We know that the whole world would greatly appreciate peace with Iran.
Everyone wants to see oil prices fall, and this obviously ends up making markets more volatile, as we 've noticed, right? Ah, everyone's expecting some news today. Let's see if we can get this new feature here. I'm picking the rose here. One minute.
Today we're wearing pink. Wow, that 's wonderful! Let's go then. Now I give an OK.
Ah, I need to bring you all here. Just a minute, I'm just a little bit away here.
No, nothing.
Come on, come on, come on, come on.
Let's see what happened in the corporate world here, where Petrobras joined the new federal subsidy program for fuels and stated that it will maintain its pricing policy.
Also in state news, the company completed the acquisition of almost 50% of the shares of Light So BP's subsidiary in Brazil and signed an addendum with Ana Turgy to reduce the price of gas in Rio starting in June. BB approved the early distribution of 340 million in interest on equity, equivalent to 6 cents per share. Santander has confirmed the resignation of Christian Egan from his position as executive vice president. He will assume the presidency of B3.
Sabespe should abandon the privatization of Copasa. Secondly, according to a source from Valor, the company had qualified to compete for the position of reference partner in the privatization plan, but considered that there is still much to be done in São Paulo. Yes, I have no doubt about that, right?
That explosion in Jaguaré showed us where we stand. It doesn't start with grace. Proposals for Copasa will be accepted until Monday, with the name of the reference investor being announced on the 27th.
If there is no reference investor, that is, the one who has reached a certain percentage and will be the one in charge, the capital will be dispersed. OK? Marfrig, or rather MBRF, which is Marfrig Brasil Foods, had its outlook revised by SNP from neutral to negative.
The company approved $300 million in interim dividends.
GP sold its stake, GPA's 66.7% stake in CTIC to RD Saúde for 23 million. Wow, that's very little. Minority shareholders of oncoclinics requested an analysis regarding a potential takeover bid.
Bradesco Saúde received authorization from B3 to maintain a free float of 8.61 shares. The dispute between Roberto Jataí and Alexandre Birma was exposed in a statement to the market. OK. Multiplan. The squadron reduced its participation.
Almost nothing. Let's go. Approved the program to repurchase up to 37 million in combined common shares. It's issuing 500 million shares.
Axia received approval from B3 to migrate to the new market. She will start having common shares as Axia 3 and preferred shares as Axia 7, which will be convertible and redeemable until 2031.
[snoring] Eneva approved a capital increase of 1.5 million.
Semig, the traditional bank, now holds 17% of the share capital.
Tariff flag. Projections from the Chamber of Electric Energy Commercialization indicate the possibility of a red flag tariff as early as June 1st, with a charge of 4.66 per 100 kW. hours consumed. Wow, that's intense, huh? Okay.
[snoring] That's basically it, folks. There's nothing more for us to say. The market has a negative expectation for the opening, based on the Vale decline, the EWZ decline, and the decline of the American stock market. Oil prices are rising, meaning Petrobras is partially recovering from yesterday's 3.20% drop.
[snoring] And that's how we end the call, right, with a negative outlook for the index today. Okay, let's go, shall we? I do n't think there's any big news to come out during the day. Flávio Bolsonaro's situation remains quite complicated, very tangled, and it will be difficult for him to get out of it. And that's all we have for today. Have a great Thursday trading session, and see you soon at 6 PM.
I'll be discussing Clabim and SUSB, okay? I went.
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