The Stock Market Rewind: Markets Rebound, Oil over $100

Added: 2026-05-14

[00:00:01]What is going on everyone? We are live.

[00:00:07]So before we get started, read the disclaimer. I am not a financial advisor. I have absolutely no idea what your situation is. Anything I discuss, my opinions only. Do not follow me on anything. Do not follow me on any trades I may do.

[00:00:31]I don't have a crystal ball the way some people on X do. I get things wrong.

[00:00:38]I understand the risks. Whatever money I lose, I'm willing to lose. Anyway, thank you for being here.

[00:00:47]It was a interesting. It was a weird day.

[00:00:52]I don't know how Chels beats me all the time here. probably because she walks like 20,000 steps a day. And I think that she found it funny that I was kind of lagging behind.

[00:01:08]I mean, we did 16 I did 16,000 steps.

[00:01:10]That's too much. Too much. Too much. And Maddie, Maddie, Maddie, Maddie, Maddie, Maddie, you're over there. You're over there having tea and crumpets. relaxing, living life.

[00:01:29]If you want, Matt, you're more than welcome to come on. You're I mean, I would hope with the time difference you're at the hotel. I will send you a link.

[00:01:41]I'll send you a link. Ch, you are an absolute superstar. Just want you to know that.

[00:01:50]Absolute superstar.

[00:01:53]Matt, you have a link that just came your way, sir. If you're up to it, you're more than welcome. What's going on everybody?

[00:02:01]Venom, Ricardo, Alex, David, Hoody, who else is here? Venom, Lugs, Nicholas.

[00:02:11]Thank you everybody for being here.

[00:02:13]Truly appreciate it.

[00:02:21]Matt, I'm going to pretend I didn't see that. You know, if you want to talk like that, you can move that to the WhatsApp group, sir. Move that to the WhatsApp.

[00:02:30]Not Not here. Not here. Anyway. Anyway, S&P 7,400.

[00:02:42]I mean, we were down so much at one point. Does this even feel like there?

[00:02:48]And this is not healthy, okay? We should not think like this. We should not think like this. But it's starting to feel Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. It's after hours with Maddie Dairo now. Matty Dairo, get on here. How about that? Get on here.

[00:03:12]It is starting to feel like the market wants us to believe it's invincible.

[00:03:21]To me, every dip just gets bought. Every dip. Every dip. 7401.

[00:03:35]I got to tell you, I did not think that this was going to close over 7,400 today.

[00:03:46]We were down as much as 1% intraday and we were pretty much flat at the close.

[00:03:52]The Dow eaked out a small gain. The Dow was down a lot.

[00:03:58]The Nasdaq only finished down 255. At one point, the Nasdaq was down over 500.

[00:04:07]The VIX popped to around 18.4, was up about 7%. Here's the thing.

[00:04:14]WTI over a 100. We had a hot inflation report this morning. We had WTI cross over a 100 and then all of a sudden in the afternoon the dip get we didn't even have a full day of selling. The dip just got bought. Maybe I'm crazy, but I feel like me buying Micron was a signal. I don't know. 709. I did not expect Micron to do what it did. I mean, it's kind of crazy, right?

[00:04:46]Technology was down over two and a half% at one point. Where's Micron on my list?

[00:04:51]I should probably just do it alphabetized. Make it easier on myself.

[00:04:59]That is absolutely crazy.

[00:05:03]76658 is where Micron closed today and I bought at 709. This market is just weird. This market is jacklined. We can't And I'm not complaining that we really didn't go down. It's just crazy.

[00:05:21]Just crazy. Hollis, don't make me laugh.

[00:05:25]Don't make me laugh. It is crazy that we can't even have one bad down day. I mean, I'm not complaining, but this is feeling this is starting to feel like a false sense of reality here. Micron, the intraday, I think this hits 707 or 706.

[00:05:47]me.

[00:05:50]Do we dare say that if oil going over a hundred, inflation coming in hot, that that can't keep a selloff going? I mean, what the hell has to happen? I don't even want to know what the hell has to happen for a selloff to actually keep this market down. This market has so much momentum.

[00:06:11]It is feeling a little crazy.

[00:06:17]The 10-year a little bit higher on the day. Gold 4,700. Bitcoin 80,000 950 I believe. Where is Bitcoin on my crypto list?

[00:06:31]Crypto.

[00:06:34]Bitcoin, where are you? 80,600 right now. I mean, this is getting crazy.

[00:06:43]All right, for those of you that did not join me earlier and I did not have time to go through the QXO report, I know that they reported.

[00:06:53]I actually had two meetings today and was in the middle of writing something.

[00:07:00]I will be going through the QXO report tonight and I will be reporting on it tomorrow. I'm really I don't want to talk about it until I have time to really go through it. I just didn't have enough time.

[00:07:13]For those of you that didn't join me earlier, we had the headline CPI print 3.8% year-over-year. It's the highest since May 2023.

[00:07:22]Came in hotter than expected. Consensus was 3.7%.

[00:07:28]Core CPI 2.8% year-over-year. It was hotter than the 2.7% estimate. Energy rose 3.8% in April alone. Gasoline 28.4% 4% year-over-year shelter.

[00:07:44]6% increase after easing in the prior months. And this is what scared a lot of people and I think this is what drove the initial selloff because this is not Iran driven.

[00:07:59]It's just not Iran driven. It's shelter.

[00:08:04]The Fed rate odds got absolutely obliterated today as we saw. They're now pricing in a cut a hike.

[00:08:13]We got we had profit taking in the AI trade until we didn't.

[00:08:19]I don't even know if you can call we saw profit taking on holdings slaughtered earnings came in at 47 cents of EPS better than the 35 cent expected 33% beat revenue 1.06 billion beat on the top end they were expected to come in at 1.05 05 14.5 12% year-over-year increase gross margin up about 4.5% to 64.2% adjusted IBIDA margin 21% compared to 16.5% the year prior they raised fiscal year 2026 guidance gross margin at least 64.5%.

[00:09:08]Adjusted EBA margin is now around 20% expected.

[00:09:14]We'll see a lot of people like it.

[00:09:18]What I am waiting for everybody Cisco Alibaba Cerebras Cisco tomorrow Q3 results after the close Alibaba Q4 results. I'm looking at their cloud and AI capbacks. We went over Boba the other night. Maybe we'll go over it again. I think it's the most interesting company on the China play. We'll see what happens. And then Hollis, want to know your thoughts about the Cerebrus IPO pricing tomorrow starts trading on Thursday.

[00:09:54]This is the biggest listing of 2026 so far. Lena, what is going on? Lena had a good day today. Nas, what's going on?

[00:10:04]Maddie, Maddie, Maddie, Maddie.

[00:10:10]If any of us, espec Now, keep in mind, I say this after Rocket Lab exploded past 100, if any of us had your money, we would donate ours. Plain and simple. Plain and simple.

[00:10:31]Rocket money.

[00:10:33]Rocket rocket money. So, let's look at all the individual stocks I track.

[00:10:42]Oh, Elena, how many days a week do you go to the office? That's the real question.

[00:10:51]I think you go one day a week if I am not mistaken.

[00:10:58]I am so glad I don't have to go to the office anymore.

[00:11:02]It's nice. It's nice.

[00:11:06]All right. Zeta got hit. It's over 16, but it market's not cooperating.

[00:11:15]Exxon, Verizon, VG, Matty Money. Oh, why did I think one?

[00:11:24]Yeah, but I'm in my office.

[00:11:29]I walk to my office. I never leave home.

[00:11:34]There's a difference, Carl. I don't have to go to the office. I walk to my office. Huge difference. Huge difference.

[00:11:43]Matt, you just can't stop winning, can you? You cannot stop winning. Venture Global. The report was really good. I may actually write a Seeking Alpha article about them.

[00:11:57]As a nerd, I went through the entire April EIA short-term energy outlook and I am planning on doing a energy overview for Thursday for my substack.

[00:12:13]I do work my ass off in this office. I should probably get another chair.

[00:12:22]You know what, Matt? Some would say lightning does hit the same spot twice.

[00:12:29]Some would say that.

[00:12:33]Lena, that's awesome. Thank you so much.

[00:12:35]I stick my headphones on and listen to you so everyone learns to leave me the hell alone.

[00:12:43]Otherwise, I hear Hey, Lena. All damn day. You know what?

[00:12:48]I get it. I get it. Thank you. I listen.

[00:12:53]I appreciate all you always hanging out with me and following me and being in the chat. I do it for the community. The community is incredible. Thank you so much. Hopefully the next big meetup that we have more of you come. It was really incredible hanging out with Hollis and Shells and Davis and just everybody that was there. Dino and his wife Angelo Jazz obviously admit I mean it was a great time. We were upset that Matty Money wasn't there but you know he had other obligations but the spy really didn't sell off soi. I got tempted everybody.

[00:13:42]I got tempted. I got tempted.

[00:13:46]Wait, what is this? What is this? Lena, Matty saying that you blocked him.

[00:13:51]What's going on here? SanDisk 1452, Ro. Okay, you know what, Matt and the rest of the space mob chose who's present should be here tomorrow, I think. Um, got to figure out which wall it's going to go on. Rocket money 11756.

[00:14:13]I mean, absolutely incredible.

[00:14:16]Space Mob is killing it. Whereas Reddit does not want to cooperate for Steve.

[00:14:22]It's okay. It's all right. Let's write another cover call next week. It's perfectly okay. Palanteer, I got some bad news for everybody. I truly believe Palanteer is going to be rangebound for a while. Probably 100 to 150. Unless something in my thesis changes. That's where I see pounds here.

[00:14:47]We got Oracle. We got Nvidia up a buck 34 22078.

[00:14:53]Really excited about Nvidia. I am super bullish heading into next week's print.

[00:14:59]Service meow 89.

[00:15:03]I think software is overdone to the downside. Obviously the market doesn't believe it. We'll see who's right.

[00:15:11]Next decade up 42 cents 850. Gotta love it. Nebia's down a little bit. Micron I mean nothing could keep these companies really down. Craziness.

[00:15:27]I got I got to be careful. I got too many things on my desk. Microsoft 407.

[00:15:33]Good old Alria Group.

[00:15:38]690 dividend yield around 6 6 and a2%.

[00:15:43]Chelle is uh having dinner with the fam.

[00:15:46]She has it open on her phone. She's reading the chat.

[00:15:51]I ran up a little bit. Hood 78. Alphabet 387.

[00:15:57]Energy transfer $20 again.

[00:16:01]Oh my god.

[00:16:04]We have news. Cisco systems is almost going to break a 100. Where's Tommy Dimes? Where is Tommy Dimes?

[00:16:16]You know what, Hollis? They should just give me a free account to manage my agents.

[00:16:23]Coreweave 107. Canada and I will be talking about Coreweave tomorrow night.

[00:16:29]Salesforce 171. This is just sad. This is just sad.

[00:16:37]Yeah, Chels is a trooper. She's incredible.

[00:16:43]Broadcom 419, ARM Holdings 207, Amazon 265. AMD can't hold AMD down. Apple got tell everybody starting to turn a little bullish on Apple.

[00:16:58]went through the quarter, finally got around to it. I may upgrade my thoughts.

[00:17:05]I may upgrade them.

[00:17:07]I really am coming around on Apple's starting to get bullish again.

[00:17:13]Maybe it's because I got Mac Mini. I don't know. Maybe it's because I saw the Holl Travels with a Mac Studio.

[00:17:21]Everybody I know uses Apple products.

[00:17:24]Everybody.

[00:17:26]Cisco broke 100 uh yesterday. I didn't see that. I did not see that.

[00:17:37]When I look at this market, this is a market that does not want to stop. It really doesn't.

[00:17:44]So, where do we go from here? I I got to tell you, I'm starting to be convinced that we are going to 8,000 sooner than later after today's meltup after the selloff.

[00:18:01]I don't know about that. Lena, do you mind if I show you why, Lena? Why I'm going to get why I'm thinking about getting bullish?

[00:18:12]Start running the numbers.

[00:18:15]I gotta go into my Google Sheets.

[00:18:26]Jesus Christ [ __ ] people.

[00:18:32]All right, I found the spreadsheet. Everybody, never fear. I found the spreadsheet. All right, this is why I'm really starting to get bullish on Apple again. What was my big complaint?

[00:19:03]My big complaint was Apple's cash from operations wasn't really growing at the same pace as everybody else.

[00:19:16]Lena, I gotta tell you, that's a great price.

[00:19:21]That's a great price. I have not bought Apple in a while, but but I am going to probably change my tune about being neutral. Here we here's why.

[00:19:38]Apple's cash from operations only increased from the end of 2021 fiscal year throughout the next four years by about 6.57 billion. Not much at all, but look at this increase here in the TTM.

[00:19:59]We're at about 29 billion year-over-year increase.

[00:20:06]When I see that makes me think Apple's getting its groove back. It really does.

[00:20:15]It is annoy me that this is not all the same color. You know, I didn't come prepared. I'm sorry. Um, what the [ __ ] did I just do? There we go.

[00:20:31]All should be the same size.

[00:20:34]There we go.

[00:20:36]There we go. It's looking a little better now, but Apple's starting to really get there. Now, in the TTM, it is still behind Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft. And one of the reasons why I always said is because you look at Microsoft, they've gone from 77 to 170 billion in cash from operations.

[00:21:03]Huge increase. Apple's starting to catch up. I like what I'm seeing here. I really do. I like what I'm seeing here.

[00:21:16]What do you want, Matt?

[00:21:19]Donate. Donate some Rocket Lab to your buddy. What's going on?

[00:21:23]You got You got You can donate some.

[00:21:26]I'll put it to good use.

[00:21:32]Anyway, Apple having this type of euro year-over-year increase.

[00:21:40]Maybe they get their groove back. Maybe they do. And you know what? I wasn't the biggest Tim Cook fan. I really wasn't.

[00:21:55]Um, it's an inside joke between Matt and myself.

[00:22:03]Okay, that's all you need to know. It is an inside joke.

[00:22:19]Oh, God. You two I don't even know if I just helped the case considering I just uh highlighted that.

[00:22:30]Look, I'm not the biggest Tim Cook fan.

[00:22:33]Tim Cook is a great operator. I think there was a better use of capital than just buying back all the shares they did. I would have rather Tim Cook spend 70 billion a year on buybacks and 20 billion on acquisitions or capex. I just I'm very happy for John uh I don't even know how to pronounce his last name.

[00:23:04]Hold on.

[00:23:07]Hold, please.

[00:23:10]Turn. Is that how I pronounce it? John Turnis.

[00:23:14]I'm excited about this guy. I really am.

[00:23:21]Trying to keep up with the chat and not laugh and get my thoughts out, but it it's kind of hard with what these two are talking about.

[00:23:32]Johnny Apple. Is that what we're going to call him instead of Timmy Apple?

[00:23:35]Johnny Apple. Here here here's where I am on it. Tim Cook is becoming the executive chairman. John Turnis is 50. He is the SVP of hardware engineering.

[00:23:51]He's becoming the eighth CEO of Apple.

[00:23:55]Johnny Squy or whatever his name is taking over as a chief hardware officer.

[00:24:03]and the transition was unanimous was announced on the 20th of April and he's a 25-y year Apple employee with extremely deep credibility inside the engineering organization. He worked under Steve Jobs.

[00:24:23]Tim Cook has called him his mentee. He's a hardware guy taking over a company at the moment when the conversation is shifting to software, AI, and services.

[00:24:40]Can he get the job done?

[00:24:42]Yet to be seen, but he did work directly with with uh Steve Jobs.

[00:24:54]And I do think we need a new direction for Apple. I think they've underinvested.

[00:25:02]I think they fell behind.

[00:25:05]Siri was born in 2011.

[00:25:10]Look, Apple has had incredible gains.

[00:25:14]Incredible gains. Not taking anything away from that. Tim Cook manufactured earnings at a time when Apple was not growing the top line. But I have to think that not deploying all that capex is going to come back to haunt them.

[00:25:29]Whether it's them being dependent.

[00:25:37]Um I don't understand the question.

[00:25:43]Am I the man who introduced basis points podcast?

[00:25:48]Um, I don't know what you mean by introduced, but Amid and I have the basis points podcast.

[00:25:58]Hollis, you can't do that. I almost spit my coffee on my monitor. You can't do that. That that that was hilarious. Oh my god.

[00:26:10]Um, yeah, I didn't introduce anybody to the basis points. It is uh basis points is with a bit of myself. We shoot it once a week.

[00:26:21]But yes, I am on basis points with a minute. Anyway, Apple has what I would consider the greatest the greatest community. And I'm going to play a video for everybody. We're going to have some fun. We're going to play a video. We're going to have a good laugh.

[00:26:42]This is why you can't get bearish on Apple.

[00:26:45]You just can't get bearish on Apple.

[00:26:49]I've gone neutral on them, but you can't get bearish on them.

[00:26:54]Uh, how do I watch this? Here we go.

[00:26:58]All right, this is from basis points.

[00:27:33]What do you mean you can't hear anything?

[00:27:36]I haven't done that in a long time.

[00:27:39]I'm sorry. I haven't done that in a long time. Everybody, I apologize.

[00:27:44]>> My seven cents. iPhone they actually missed. But because of supply issues, Tim Cook said on the call that the demand for Mac Neo, their new laptop, um the Mac Mini and the iPhone have far uh superseded supply. They just don't have enough supply particularly because of memory is the main bottleneck and they're buying back another 100 billion of stock. They increased the dividend by 4%. I think the broader question here is as he gives the business to John Turnis, do we expect anything different other than just constant execution from Apple?

[00:28:13]>> I don't know. Apple has been the bellweather. Apple has been an amazing company and you can argue it has the greatest customer base out of any company. Is it the Everybody talks about >> Oh, I also >> And you are just a crazy person.

[00:28:28]>> Got a nice little new Look at this orange bad boy. This is beautiful. Like literally, it's it's like I only had an iPhone 16, but it is so fast. Like I love it.

[00:28:36]>> I didn't realize you bought that for yourself. I thought you bought that for your mom and your sister.

[00:28:39]>> No, I got I already bought my mom and my sister this a year ago. See, you always used to make fun of me that oh Apple, all Apple. You spend more money at Apple than anybody I know.

[00:28:48]>> I think I spent so much money at Apple.

[00:28:49]It's kind of stupid.

[00:28:51]>> You spend a lot of money.

[00:28:51]>> I have three Macs in my house. I have three Macs. You know, >> do you own Apple stock?

[00:28:56]>> No.

[00:28:56]>> So you you you may spend more money on Apple products than anybody I know. Yet you don't own the stock.

[00:29:02]>> I have the desktop in my studio.

[00:29:04]>> It'd be cheaper for you to own the stock.

[00:29:06]>> It would be. It would be. I have the desktop in my studio. I have the laptop here. I got another MacBook Air for my kitchen because I hated unplugging.

[00:29:14]>> Wait, you got a MacBook Air just for your kitchen.

[00:29:17]>> iPad.

[00:29:18]>> No, but the iPad doesn't have the keyboard and stuff. I just >> What do you mean iPad doesn't have?

[00:29:22]>> It's iPad's not I No, I'm not getting a fake keyboard.

[00:29:25]>> This is This is the Apple.

[00:29:26]>> I'm not getting that from Teimu or whatever.

[00:29:27]>> This is Apple keyboard.

[00:29:28]>> It's not It does not the same as having a laptop. So, I got a MacBook Air. It was like, a,000. It was the same as an iPad. 1100. I do have two other iPads.

[00:29:36]>> Wait, go through go through the inventory right now. two iPads in my studio. Okay. MacBook desktop, MacBook laptop, iPhone, AirPods, AirPod Max.

[00:29:47]>> You're a walking billboard for Apple.

[00:29:49]And then I bought a MacBook Air for my kitchen because I got annoyed at unplugging from the charger and the setup. I just want to go into the kitchen and have my Mac and do what I need to do there. So, >> yeah. Look, but the point is, >> so, but you are the perfect quintessential Apple customer. Apple customers will not leave the ecosystem for anything. They're so loyal and that is why Apple has always been given the benefit of the doubt because they have an install base of more than two billion users and you are their perfect user.

[00:30:19]>> But here's the issue. For the past four years, there was no growth. Like no meaning but revenue was up.

[00:30:23]>> Revenue but EPS growth.

[00:30:25]>> Yeah, but that was manufactured. The street >> doesn't matter. Growth is growth.

[00:30:27]>> But yes, but like at some point for this to break out the street needed to feel they were actually growing the business, >> not just buying back shares. and they just got it for 17% revenue growth.

[00:30:37]>> That is why the stock should probably get closer to 300 even if it would be a little expensive there because I mean it it's Apple and they're growing again.

[00:30:44]>> It's Apple.

[00:30:45]>> Can't be too upset about it.

[00:30:46]>> What you can be upset about is Siri.

[00:30:49]>> 2011 I couldn't believe it when I stopped the stream to look. My jaw dropped. I think everybody thought I was like having a compulsion or something. I could not believe 2011 is when Siri was born.

[00:31:03]Yeah, >> Siri, >> iPhone has not done anything. I mean, how is Grock light years better than Siri? So, if Apple does anything in the post Timmy Apple era, get Siri good because people will use Siri. I got to tell you, I use Grog for so many things.

[00:31:26]I'm glad that we watch this together because it made me realize something I want to write in my article that I may not have thought of. This rejived my memory. Now Aid is a crazy person, but he is the best type of Apple customer. I mean, I'm a pretty good Apple customer, too.

[00:31:47]Mac Mini, iPad Pro, iPad Air, iPhone in my office, four Apple products in my office.

[00:31:57]There are Apple tablets next door. So, I'm a pretty good customer. Apple customers love buying their products. I have a Galaxy tablet and it sucks. It absolutely sucks.

[00:32:13]What I want to see out of Apple and what I think that they should do and what they will do.

[00:32:22]Oh, that's a good one. These comments are great. Keep them coming. But what I want to see them do is have a true assistant with Siri, a real assistant. Because if they can, I think that they'll be able to charge another five bucks a month or seven bucks a month for a layered AI service on top of their service package. and the services business will increase a considerable amount year-over-year.

[00:32:58]I think that Siri is a huge opportunity for Apple and if they and I also think it's a very big liability because if they don't get it good and if Alphabet has their assistant that is just light years better I got to tell you I think people will switch. I really do.

[00:33:23]Yeah. Jason MacBook in every room cuz I got juice like a Apple. Okay.

[00:33:31]I like it. Palace, what's up?

[00:33:36]I have a MacBook on my MacBook. Yeah, I Okay, I have a MacBook in my doghouse.

[00:33:41]Okay.

[00:33:43]Apple products are incredible.

[00:33:47]The question is can they get Siri good enough where they can layer on add additional service. I am hoping that they can. I am hoping that that is the direction that they are going to go in.

[00:34:04]That's a good point.

[00:34:08]It's a good point.

[00:34:14]Is Siri just a Build-A-Bear without AI?

[00:34:16]Maybe.

[00:34:20]Maybe we can get Matt to buy the Build-A-Bear company. He can buy the entire thing with racket money.

[00:34:26]That'd be pretty damn funny.

[00:34:39]I would agree except I would leave if the AI assistant was incredible for Alphabet.

[00:34:52]Ricardo, look at that. I mean, it should be able to. It's on YouTube, right?

[00:34:58]Should be able to.

[00:35:00]But in all seriousness, I think Apple's missing the mark on this. I think Apple is at a point where they need to take spending more seriously.

[00:35:10]I mean, think about Apple TV. Is Apple TV ever really mentioned with anything?

[00:35:16]It's either Netflix or Prime or now Warner Brothers um Parammont Venom. I agree.

[00:35:32]Trash Syrian replace it. Start from the ground up. I I agree.

[00:35:38]I agree.

[00:35:42]Crazy kid. I don't know. Think about it. Siri came out in 2011. You didn't have chat GBT until 2013.

[00:35:58]12 years later. 12 years. That's a long enough time for them to get Siri good.

[00:36:15]We will see what happens. I I think it's a big market. I think that they are going to do something. And I'm starting to get bullish on Apple again. I I am happy that we are done with the Tim Cook era. I am ready for fresh blood. I am ready for a new direction.

[00:36:33]Do I want to see Metael Compute? Eh, not really.

[00:36:39]I do think it'll make the stock pump, but I don't want to really say it.

[00:36:50]Do I own Apple? Absolutely.

[00:36:54]I own everything in the Mag 7, which I am now officially recining as the Spectacular 6.

[00:37:10]I'm starting to warm up to Netflix. I actually like Netflix at these levels.

[00:37:23]Yeah, I don't hate that. Replace it with a Broadcom. I don't hate that. Don't hate it.

[00:37:31]I have not gone through QXO's earnings.

[00:37:34]I really don't want to discuss it tonight because I need to read through the earnings report. I promise everybody when I make a promise I do not break it.

[00:37:47]I promise everybody that I will go through it tonight with a fine tooth comb and I will go over it tomorrow at the 11:30 stream.

[00:38:02]Ron, what do you mean by that?

[00:38:09]Because I don't understand Tesla. Okay, cool. What don't I understand about Tesla?

[00:38:16]Car company with an energy business and a services business that doesn't make money on FSD yet. And everybody's ugoo gaga over FSD yet they don't make any money on it. Optimus is the future and they could become the biggest company in the world over the next decade if Optimus performs. What am I missing?

[00:38:36]What am I missing? I get, trust me, I get Tesla. I get it. It's just overvalued.

[00:38:43]I am interested as Cerebrus, but I don't know where it's going to open.

[00:38:50]And it scares me that they're IPOing when semis are going wild. Energy storage.

[00:39:06]Energy storage business didn't do anything this quarter.

[00:39:12]RVI. Hold on.

[00:39:22]I wanted to buy this and everybody talked me out of it. I shouldn't have listened to anybody.

[00:39:27]I kept saying that this was going to do well.

[00:39:31]This thing's at 53. Holy [ __ ] What the hell are they holding?

[00:39:42]What is in this fund?

[00:39:50]Open AAI 11 Labs Stripe.

[00:39:58]Can we get a full Where's the full breakdown? What the hell?

[00:40:14]Here we go.

[00:40:20]Data Bricks, Revolt, Mira, Air Wallix, Boom, Supersonic, Aura, Ramp.

[00:40:33]New investments, OpenAI, Stripe, 11 Labs.

[00:40:40]Listen, Pokemon investments are going parabolic, everybody.

[00:40:47]Don't sleep. Don't sleep, Blake. Tesla can go to a thousand.

[00:41:01]I don't care. Like, it doesn't make sense. And I hope it does. I'm a shareholder. I know a lot of people in the chat are shareholders. So, I hope it goes up. I hope it does nothing but go up.

[00:41:16]Absolutely. You will never hear me hate on stocks going up because I want people to make money, but let's call a spade a spade.

[00:41:28]Tesla's the most one of the most overvalued companies I've ever seen in my life. Period. And I'll prove it in the TTM.

[00:41:45]Okay, Tesla is a $1.63 trillion company and Meta is a $ 1.53 trillion company. Tesla is bigger than Meta. Let me say that again. Tesla is bigger than Meta. It trades at 361 times earnings.

[00:42:06]That does not make sense. How about this?

[00:42:09]They're bigger than Meta, yet they do less than half the revenue.

[00:42:16]Their growth is minuscule compared to Meta. Their margins suck compared to Meta. And I mean, they suck.

[00:42:26]Suck. Period.

[00:42:29]19% gross compared to 82. Operating 5% compared to 41. Net 4% versus 32.8.

[00:42:38]The get out of here Tesla. It's ridiculous.

[00:42:44]Oh, gross profit. Meta does roughly 9 and a halfx more. Ibida, Meta does 11x. Operating income, uh, 18x, net income, 19x.

[00:43:06]So, if we're talking about an actual business here, forget what they do.

[00:43:12]Forget Future Pulled Forward, forget Zuck versus Elon, all that stuff. From a business perspective, there is no reason in hell Tesla should be a larger company than Meta. You can say full self-drive and you can say Optimus and all this stuff.

[00:43:31]Tesla has to legitimately increase their IBIDA by more than 10x. They have to increase their IBIDA by about 11x to generate the same IBIDA as Meta. Think about how much growth that is. Tesla has no business being a bigger company than Meta. Period. Full stop. Sorry.

[00:43:52]Sorry.

[00:44:00]Listen, I hope Tesla goes to a thousand. I want all of you to make a lot of money. I'm in it. I own Tesla, but I still call balls and strikes. You know what I mean? You can't short Elon.

[00:44:16]Like Lena said, nobody's ever really made money bang against the guy. And Tesla's always been that company that doesn't follow the rules, which is fine.

[00:44:25]100% it's fine.

[00:44:30]Tesla is an amazing company. Elon's one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our lifetime. There's no question about that. All I'm saying is that when you actually analyze the business fundamentals, there's no reason that it should be a larger company than Meta. That's all I'm saying.

[00:44:53]You know what? We can challenge balls and strikes now. We absolutely can.

[00:45:00]We absolutely can.

[00:45:11]So, we'll see what happens.

[00:45:14]We will see what happens.

[00:45:22]Thoughts on consumer discretionary sector? Um, I look I I like consumer discretionary.

[00:45:29]I think that worsh is going to be very good.

[00:45:36]Thank you, man. Really appreciate it.

[00:45:40]Please check out GFS in your program if time permits. They had good earnings and now have a divvy. Not sure if that's good. Um, GFS, what is that? Why does that sound familiar? Is that global foundaries?

[00:45:55]Hold on.

[00:46:00]Yeah, global foundaries. I can look at it. It's not going to If it just reported, I'm not going to have the up-to-date numbers. Let's see.

[00:46:22]Global Foundaries not horrible.

[00:46:33]I mean for a chip man chip fabrication margins are good.

[00:46:40]I like the free cash flow margin.

[00:46:46]I I don't hate this. Um, let's look at what the forward metrics are. Who Who do they compete against besides TSM?

[00:47:05]And are they a US-based company? Let me get that out of the way first. Is this pulling in the right information? This is pulling in the right information.

[00:47:14]Okay.

[00:47:17]I can do TXM.

[00:47:20]I don't think I updated this correctly to pull in Taiwan semi, but we're going to find out. So, hold on.

[00:47:34]Um, TXN TSM Yeah, Taiwan sent me. I got to recode this to do the uh conversions on currency. So, let me remove them. I haven't done that yet.

[00:48:04]Yeah, Global Foundaries is interesting here. They're keering over a 2-year period at 29.6% 6% a year on EPS. They trade 22 time 22.7 times 2028 earnings.

[00:48:17]I like that. That That's pretty cool. I definitely like it.

[00:48:31]36 and 33.

[00:48:35]Say you're doing pretty damn good.

[00:48:38]Nice doubles there, buddy. Nice doubles.

[00:48:52]Jake, really cool ads, huh? Nice, nice, nice, nice.

[00:49:05]Not Rubric. I own Cisco for Cyber.

[00:49:09]I should have brought Crowd Strike. I mean, man, what a great run Crowd Strike has had.

[00:49:18]I don't know why Reddit's getting hit.

[00:49:20]I'm just writing calls against it at this point.

[00:49:27]I do not follow App Loving, so I really don't have any thoughts on it.

[00:49:38]Pretty I like this weekly dedicated episode. Steve calls balls and stripes.

[00:49:44]Think you meant strikes.

[00:49:47]Purpose to call the market and stocks as it is. Undervalued, overvalued. I don't hate that. Got my pen.

[00:49:56]Weekly segment.

[00:50:05]I don't hate that at all. I like it.

[00:50:20]Uh Carl, what will I be calling an alternative asset?

[00:50:28]Jarvis is pretty much flat. I got to take a look at Jarvis and figure out why it's not actually making money. I am happy it's not losing money.

[00:50:39]So, I need to relook at it now that I'm back from Chicago and I'm not traveling.

[00:50:48]What grinds my gears segment too. I don't know if YouTube will allow me to do that.

[00:50:57]Yes, you did, Pie. Yes, you did.

[00:51:11]Yes, I am. MJ.

[00:51:23]Um, let's see.

[00:51:29]I will tell you this, okay? At some point, I'm going to have a Shelby Goer.

[00:51:35]At some point, I'm going to build one of those kick cars.

[00:51:43]Throw a blueprint in there. Hang out with Matt.

[00:51:51]New lifestyle is amazing.

[00:51:53]No more 9 to5. Now it's 8 to 11. All day, every day, all night, every day.

[00:52:00]Can't stop, won't stop.

[00:52:03]But I love it. Wouldn't trade it for anything.

[00:52:06]Last name kind of gives it away, guys.

[00:52:09]Kind of gives it away.

[00:52:13]I like Birkshshire.

[00:52:16]I think Greg Ael is going to be really good and I'm happy for the next chapter. I think he's going to be more tech friendly.

[00:52:28]I think Nvidia is going to absolutely crush earnings. I need to do a Nvidia earnings prediction video, but I absolutely think they're going to crush earnings.

[00:52:57]Uh, no, I will not be selling cover calls yet on MU.

[00:53:02]The reality is that this thing can just run. We're going to give it a little bit of time. We'll see what happens.

[00:53:09]Pineapple pizza is a never, everybody.

[00:53:13]Pineapple pizza is a never never never did see anthropic raising. Yes.

[00:53:32]So bullish for Amazon and so bullish for Alphabet.

[00:53:37]Very bullish for both.

[00:53:46]All right, let's take a look at where we are in the futures.

[00:53:53]Let's pull up the dashboard.

[00:54:01]Extended hours, everybody. We are in extended hours.

[00:54:10]Zeta up. VG up. Alphabet up. Rocket Money 118. Maddie 118.

[00:54:19]Slumber 56. Service Meow 8950.

[00:54:25]Amazon's up. Ventus is up.

[00:54:28]Nebius is up. Palanteer Reddit's up a little bit.

[00:54:35]Cisco 9955.

[00:54:38]Verizon is up. Bank of America is up.

[00:54:40]Salesforce better go up is all I got to say.

[00:54:46]So what's falling after hours?

[00:54:49]Foret Mo, Proctor Gamble, JP Morgan, Oracle, Exxon, Apple, nothing really. I mean, SPY is holding up really damn well. This market is so strong.

[00:55:08]Market's really strong, everybody.

[00:55:13]762 on Micron.

[00:55:16]Don't forget I did it live. Anyway, all right, everyone.

[00:55:26]We're going to call it a night. Markets are doing good. We had big reversal.

[00:55:31]This could have been a 3 to 5% down day.

[00:55:34]The dip got bought.

[00:55:36]The dip got bought. I sniped Micron at 7:09.

[00:55:42]We're going to call it a night, everybody. Members only. If you have a membership to the channel, 900 p.m. tonight. Members only with Steve.

[00:55:54]We're going to hang out.

[00:55:57]AMA, ask me anything.

[00:55:59]Probably about an hour or so.

[00:56:03]going to do a makeup from the weekend.

[00:56:06]Then I will be back tomorrow morning at 11:30 for the midday stock market show.

[00:56:15]Get a members only jacket.

[00:56:18]What are we Sopranos right now?

[00:56:23]Maybe I will. Maybe I will.

[00:56:26]Herbert, if you can name who Jackie Arille took that jacket off of, I'll be very impressed.

[00:56:36]I'll be very impressed.

[00:56:41]Does anybody know off the top of their heads without looking it up who Jackie Appreal took? Uh, not Jackie, I'm sorry. Um, [ __ ] Rich, I'm sorry. Richie Appreal. Who did Richie Appal take the dread red leather jacket off of?

[00:57:04]Anybody really?

[00:57:08]Um, Madam, if you can get me into Rayos, let's do this.

[00:57:19]Tony did not wear the jacket. He kept it in the trunk. That's right. Roco Deo.

[00:57:25]Roco Deo is who he took the jacket off of.

[00:57:31]Dead Poet Society, you don't want my thoughts on that. I'm sorry.

[00:57:37]Anyway, Pedro, what's up, man? Thank you everybody for being here. Really appreciate it. I will be back tomorrow morning for everybody at 11:30. Tonight, members only at 900 p.m. Thank you so much. See you in an hour and a half.

[00:57:55]Bye-bye for now.