NOBODY is Prepared for This... Big News for The Stock Market.

Ajouté : 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]Holy smokes, ladies and gentlemen.

[00:00:02]Markets are moving higher yet again today. As we expected to happen, we actually got a lot of good news from the China-Trump meeting. In fact, we didn't get any bad news, really.

[00:00:18]Um it was great. We're going to get into all of it in today's episode. The news, the headlines, what it means for markets, all of it in today's episode.

[00:00:27]We did have some economic data as well this morning. We do have Cerebos IPO coming out literally any moment now. I want to give you guys the details on that, my thoughts around it. It's kind of crazy what is happening right now.

[00:00:43]So, we have a lot going on. We do have some smaller economic data as well tomorrow morning. I will discuss it and not to mention we do have kind of a rotation in markets.

[00:00:54]Now, you're still getting semiconductors that are doing very well.

[00:00:58]But, you're starting to see the signs of this epic rally in certain areas, this rotation into certain areas that I've been talking about on the channel for the last couple of weeks.

[00:01:12]It is kind of starting today. Hit that like button. Subscribe to the channel if you guys have not done so already. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us in our high conviction investments, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. More on that in just a few minutes. Let's get into what's happening today in the markets. Okay, so first and foremost, if we take a look at the indexes today, the VIX is down 0.22%.

[00:01:37]The VIX is already at a very low level.

[00:01:39]There's not a lot of fear out there, so that doesn't tell you a whole lot.

[00:01:44]Russell 2000 is up 0.89%. Nasdaq is up 1.04%. S&P 500 is up 0.92%.

[00:01:52]The Dow is up 0.95%.

[00:01:56]Now, what's very interesting about today is what happened yesterday. Yesterday, you had over a 1% increase on the Nasdaq, over a half of 1% increase on the S&P.

[00:02:10]In fact, over 350 stocks in the S&P were red yesterday.

[00:02:17]That is the worst breath that you've ever seen in the history of the markets for a such a large move higher, right?

[00:02:25]You've never seen that discrepancy so large. Well, today, it is completely the opposite. You do have a lot of other areas of this market doing very well.

[00:02:37]Software, kind of a mixed bag, but there's a lot of winners here, okay?

[00:02:42]Technology, excluding semiconductors.

[00:02:46]So, exclude semiconductors, exclude Mag 7 here, and Microsoft up 1%, Oracle's up five, Palantir up three, Palo Alto up 4.25, Crowd up 3%, Fortinet up 2 and 1/2%, Synopsys up a little bit. Within software, CRM up two, Intuit up three and a half, ServiceNow up five and a half.

[00:03:09]Semiconductor equipment and materials, which um I don't know if you guys want to group that in the into the semiconductor category, but that's doing pretty well.

[00:03:19]Uh communication equipment, Cisco leading the way higher, HPE, uh ZBRA, you know, you get the idea. There's a lot of green outside of just a couple of semiconductor names.

[00:03:32]Consumer cyclicals. Look at this, lots of green out there, tons of green.

[00:03:36]Communication services, quite a bit of green. Healthcare, mixed bag, but a lot of green. Financials, a lot of green.

[00:03:45]Look at Mag 7 today, okay? Tesla's up 1.22%. I'll give it that. Meta's up 1%. Google's down about a half of 1%. Amazon is down 0.6%.

[00:03:58]Apple is flat today. Microsoft up 1%, Nvidia's up 4%.

[00:04:04]So, you're not getting Mag 7 having this huge positive impact on the markets today. Yes, there is a positive impact, but there's other areas of the markets that are also doing well today. Like cyclicals, like financials, like software and tech excluding Mag 7, excluding semiconductors. So, today is definitely a healthier looking day for the markets. Technology up 2%, financials up 1%, defensives up 0.73, industrials up 0.6, energy and cyclicals up about a half of 1%, communication services up 0.2%, health care up a 10th, utilities up a 10th, real estate up a 10th, basic materials down 1.2% today.

[00:04:50]Also important to point out today, 10-year Treasury yields are down over three basis points, so that's good. Oil is down about a half of 1% on some of these good news uh headlines from the Trump-China meeting. China will work behind the scenes to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Bessen says. Scott Bessen said today that he sees substantial disinflation ahead as Warsh takes over the Fed. Scott Bessen said, you probably have 1 to 2 months of higher inflation from here, and then you're going to see inflation fall pretty rapidly. Also in the news today, Donald Trump said Xi Jinping told him China would not provide military equipment to Iran and expressed support for a potential deal. Trump added, Xi offered to help mediate tensions and agreed the Strait of Hormuz should remain open, according to a White House readout. Trump said today on Fox News, Boeing wanted 150 orders, they got 200 big ones. Trump said that Xi Jinping said he doesn't like Iran charging Hormuz tolls. Trump to Fox News said Xi Jinping said he'd like to keep buying oil from Iran. Xi Jinping said, I would like to be of help on Iran. Trump said, "Over in Beijing, the American and Chinese people share much in common. We value hard work, we value courage and achievement. We love families and we love our country." And here you can see the headline from Trump. It says China's G offered to help on Iran. So that definitely sounds like good news. Fed Schmidt today says inflation is still too high despite a strong economy. The Chinese govern- government says Trump was told that Taiwan is the most important issue on the table and warns the future of US-China ties depends on how it's handled per Fox. Nvidia shares are also up about 4% today hitting a new record high after a report that the US has cleared H200 chip sales to 10 Chinese firms. Marco Rubio says China trying to take Taiwan would be a mistake. Also in the news today, it looks like traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has picked up a little bit in the last 24 hours with about 30 tankers that have transited the strait. Now, there was roughly 130 tankers per day before this conflict that were carrying oil every day throughout the strait. So still way down, but a big rebound in uh traffic. We also got US initial jobless claims today. They came in at 211,000.

[00:07:26]The forecast was 205,000.

[00:07:28]So we've we've we've seen so much good news on the labor market, on the economy. We're we're we're getting uh these initial jobless claims that don't look super great. They don't look bad by any means, but not super great. Likely one of the reasons why 10-year Treasury yields are coming down today, sparking a little bit more of a broader broader rally in markets today because people are a little bit less concerned about Fed rate hikes later this year. That is something that we have talked about quite a bit on this channel. It's uh something that obviously everyone has their own opinions on, but the fact is the fact, the markets are pricing in about a 31% chance of a rate hike this year. There's basically a 0% chance of a rate cut. I think that that that could be a positive surprise later this year if the war with Iran ends on relatively short notice, inflation maybe does go up another month or two like Scott Bessent says, and then really starts to fall off towards the end of this year, you could be looking at rate cuts towards the end of this year or in 2027. In fact, if you look out to December 8th, 2027, uh markets are saying the cutting cycle is over with. In fact, the next move is like three almost three times more likely to be a hike than a cut.

[00:08:55]Right? The probability of the next move being a hike is 31.4%.

[00:09:00]The probability of the next move being a cut is 12 and 1/2%.

[00:09:05]You know, so people are uh you know, pricing in a chance that the Fed uh actually begins a rate hiking cycle. So, no wonder semiconductors have been the big winner. Why do you want to own anything else when oil's high, you have a Trump-China meeting, you have a war with Iran, you have uh you know, Fed rate hike probabilities that have skyrocketed in the last couple of months.

[00:09:34]AI the AI trade looks very appealing with that set ups of of circumstances.

[00:09:40]Now, I do want to briefly mention before we get into the rest of your market news and what else is happening today.

[00:09:47]I do want to say if you're watching this video, you're you're probably trying to make as much money as possible in as little amount of time as possible taking on as little amount of risk as possible.

[00:09:58]And the only real way to do that is to concentrate your portfolio into five to 10 different stocks. Now, what we do in the trading community, what I do specifically all day basically all day every day. It's kind of embarrassing.

[00:10:10]I'm a little bit of a nerd.

[00:10:12]I'm researching probably two dozen different stocks a day to find these opportunities that are the five, the 10, the 20X stocks. That is why we bought NVTS last year at a $1.70.

[00:10:28]That stock's like 20 some dollars today.

[00:10:30]Apply Digital at $3 a share. That stock's almost $50 today. Nebius at $22.

[00:10:36]That stock is officially a 10X. That is three 10X stocks last year. Now, a lot of that trade was in semiconductors last year.

[00:10:44]The next five, 10, 20X stock there's one semiconductor stock that I do own that I think has five, 10X opportunity potentially even more than that honestly.

[00:10:56]Um but they're going to be outside of the most loved areas of the markets today.

[00:11:02]We're doing the work. I give you the thesis. I'm sharing my positioning, when I'm buying, when I'm selling. We have all kinds of different tools over there as well. If you guys want to come get involved with us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. I'm not a financial advisor.

[00:11:16]I'm not a financial planner. I like to put stocks on your radar, opportunities, give them to you on a silver silver platter with a thesis.

[00:11:25]If you want to take an investment in those companies, you obviously have to come to your own conclusions. Make sure you understand the companies you're investing in.

[00:11:33]All of that because I am not a financial advisor. I'm not your financial advisor here to spot opportunities for you where most people miss them. That link is down below in the description of today's episode. Back with the video. Retail sales month-over-month today came in at 0.5% in line with the forecast. Trump at a state banquet in Beijing said we had extremely positive and constructive discussions.

[00:12:01]Trump invited G to the White House September 24th, and Trump says the US-China relationship is one of the most consequential in world history. China's G at that state banquet for Trump says rejuvenation of China and make America great again can go hand-in-hand. Scott Bessent today says can untariff China goods we wouldn't ever reshore. Scott Bessent on China says Trump told G that he wants to open up China. Trump and President G visit the Temple of Heaven after having quote great talks. Quote China is beautiful. G at the Trump summit per CCTV, says China and the US to build constructive strategic stable relations as new positioning of bilateral ties providing strategic guidance for the next 3 years and beyond. Both sides to expand cooperation in trade, agriculture, healthcare, tourism, and law enforcement. On Taiwan, G urges the US to handle the issue with utmost prudence. G and Trump also exchanged views on the Middle East, Ukraine, and the Korean Peninsula. So like bottom line here, this was a much better outcome than I think a lot of people were expecting. We were not expecting to get much in terms of new information out of this, but it definitely sounds like the US and China after the last let's call it 18 months of issues are turning a new corner, more cooperation, friendlier ties. I mean they're even talking about tourism cooperation. I I mean that's that's that's pretty cool. That's a great thing for the US and Chinese economy. That's a great thing for the markets and I think I think a lot of the nervousness that people have had recently in regards to this meeting is like, okay, if the meeting goes bad, if even if it's a low probability, the the outcome to that would be really really bad. Like 20% crash.

[00:14:07]I mean if the meeting went bad Trump could like trade embargo China, right?

[00:14:11]That's that's the worst case scenario.

[00:14:14]Um and obviously that would not be great. So people were hedging for that. People were a little worried about that. The event risk is what you'd call it on Wall Street. And it didn't materialize, which we didn't expect it to. So people are unwinding some of those you know bearish positionings. They're repositioning into markets and and you're seeing that today. Now you obviously still have issues out there, right? Let's let's let's not forget that. Oil is still over $100 a barrel.

[00:14:45]There's we just got PPI and CPI that did not come in great at all. There are concerns out there. There there are problems, genuine problems.

[00:14:55]Look at the AI trade.

[00:14:58]It looks a little bubbly, you know, people are concerned. Valuation, well not not even more so valuations, but a lot of these semiconductor stocks have priced in outcomes that are way down the line. Like the Cerebras IPO. It is not live at the time of recording this video just yet. I expect that it will be live here any moment. But look, Cerebras was initially priced at like a hundred $20 a share, okay?

[00:15:30]It has went up to now you're going to list over $400 a share.

[00:15:36]I get it. Everyone's excited. First semiconductor IPO that's actually has a chance of like rivaling Nvidia one day IPOing. I I I get the hype, but you know, it is a a cause for concern. Not that these companies are like actually in a bubble, I at least some of them, like Nvidia. Is Nvidia in a bubble? Absolutely not.

[00:16:01]Is Nvidia a real business? The best business that the world has ever known?

[00:16:05]Of course, okay? Is Nvidia going to be bigger 10 years from now? Of course. But almost every single time almost every single time since 2024, Nvidia has actually sold off after earnings. Over 10% the last three earnings Nvidia has sold off over 10% each earnings. I think the most dramatic sell-off was like 17% and the lowest sell-off was like 11 to 13%, something like that.

[00:16:33]Look at Nvidia. It's rallied so much, you've priced in what could be two or three quarters of good news for Nvidia.

[00:16:40]Unless there's some kind of shock and awe kind of guidance again, which I think is hard to produce via the large of large the law of large numbers you're going to go through a bit of a reset here, a bit of a a calm period where you're not going to see semiconductors implode or collapse, but you're just going to stop seeing them go up every day over and over and over and over again.

[00:17:06]That's going to funnel money into other areas of the market. So if the AI trade kind of stops going up, doesn't have to crash, but kind of levels out a bit.

[00:17:18]And you get the war with Iran coming to an end. That's why I think you're going to have cyclicals outperforming, financials, tech excluding mag 7.

[00:17:29]You know, money's going to rotate into other areas like software, cyclicals, financials.

[00:17:35]Um you know, Palantir, the Palantirs, the cybersecurity names of the world, the Netflixes of the world, right? And um you know, that that for the headline index could mean the index actually comes down at the same time you have a pretty damn aggressive rotation into other areas in the market. And I've been pretty open about this. You want to be buying the fastest-growing stocks in the most hated industry right now.

[00:18:05]Okay? If if you're trying to make like a 5 10 20x, you're not going to do that in Cerebras. Cerebras is not going to 10x anytime soon after its IPO. Nvidia's not going to 10x anytime soon. Micron's not going to 10x anytime soon. If you're trying to make a lot of money, which is what we do in the trading community, is identify these big opportunities with exponential return potential, you have to be buying the best companies, the fastest-growing companies, best well-run companies in the most hated sectors in the market. Right now, that is definitively software.

[00:18:44]Definitively. 6 12 months from now, sentiment will improve in software. The companies that are the fastest-growing, the highest-quality companies, are going to 5 or 10x.

[00:18:56]Right? Those true AI winners are going to become millionaire stocks.

[00:19:02]Other ones that are not as great are are are not going to, right? Um that's the way to think about this market. Same for financials, like a SoFi, right? Nobody wants to own SoFi.

[00:19:14]Could that double or triple by the end of this year, next year?

[00:19:18]It very well could.

[00:19:19]You know, cyclicals, nobody likes cyclicals.

[00:19:24]Those are exactly the areas you want to be buying right now. That is the investing perspective, right? That is what an investor would be doing right now. If you're buying semiconductor stocks, you are a trader.

[00:19:37]And trade away. You know, I maybe they go up another 20, 30%. Trade away, have a ball. But don't call yourself an investor at this point if you're buying a stock that's up 4,000% in a year, like SanDisk.

[00:19:53]You're You're not going to make money.

[00:19:55]Ha ha.

[00:19:56]Uh highly unlikely that you're going to make money in the next 12 months or maybe even longer.

[00:20:02]Just my thoughts. Let me know your thoughts on this down below in the comment section. If you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us, that link is down below in the description of today's episode. Ladies and gentlemen, have a fantastic rest of your day, and I will see you in the next one.