Live Chat For May 6, 2026

追加: 2026-05-14

[00:05:32]Good evening everyone. Welcome to the live chat for Wednesday, May 6, 2026.

[00:05:39]Make sure that everyone is live. Looks like everything is running pretty well on YouTube and everywhere else. We have a little bit of a lag, but not too much.

[00:05:48]Uh, of course, as always, we have a lot to talk about tonight. Just a reminder, this Saturday is National Meteorologist Day. So, as always, thank all of your favorite meteorologists out there. And also, we have a changing dynamic weather pattern that I want to talk about as our El Nino starts to gain more and more strength. Now, under the old way of measuring El Nino, one could actually say that we are well on our way. What do I mean by that?

[00:06:23]Well, let's take a look at some of the official numbers here. Currently, the actual El Nino anomalies, Nino 3.4 region, which is what we usually use to study and to to verify, is at plus 0.8 8.

[00:06:43]That's pretty warm. That is definitely in Elino status. Of course, you also have to add duration. So, it's not just when it flips the switch. It also has to be at least a 3mon duration. But certainly, one could say the raw data certainly supports El Nino conditions.

[00:07:00]But as you know, we have shifted to more of a relative analysis um which as of uh let's see yesterday well actually Monday evening uh this data came out where we're at 0.4 degrees C. I'm continuing to harp on this point for a very special reason.

[00:07:23]The atmosphere is not going to react like the traditional strong or super El Nino that you might be seeing in a lot of your a lot of other locations.

[00:07:38]I'm not doubting this is going to be a pretty strong El Nino. Not not at all.

[00:07:44]Just that the rest of the Pacific is well it's toasty. It's it's very toasty.

[00:07:52]And this is impressive. And and the thing that's really really interesting is we're seeing all this warm water here while this El Nino is developing. What we need to see to get a traditional El Nino kind of showing up in our weather pattern is for this to kind of cool off.

[00:08:09]Now, that doesn't mean that we won't see impacts from El Nino. I'm not saying that at all. What I'm saying is that if you copy and paste the traditional uh climatology of El Nino, yeah, you might be in for a bit of a surprise, especially as we head towards the cold season. We really have to watch this for uh the fall and winter. This is going to get pretty interesting to watch this and we have to study this over the next six months. And we have to study the evolution here of this difference and how it's kind of blunting it. And one of the ways we could study that is what's going on with the SOI. Look at this.

[00:08:46]We still have a little bit of a hint.

[00:08:49]Just a little bit. Hold it. You know what? I just realized something. It would help if I actually showed you this damn screen. So, let me Well, I'm doing really good tonight. You know, this is what happens.

[00:09:01]>> Both we've we've both we've we've both been off today. You know, although the coffee was great this morning, I totally screwed up. Let me show you this again because I screwed this up, but it's okay. So, let me go back and let's just paraphrase again. Here's the raw data.

[00:09:19]I'm just laughing at myself now. That's just funny. Okay, so here's the raw data, right? 0.8.

[00:09:27]This is way warm. Okay, so this is typically where we have our El Nino level, right? Right about 0.5 plus 0.5.

[00:09:37]You see it's very much warming and here is the raw data. The actual data that we now use as relative is here. So again this is a point4 difference between the raw number and how the atmosphere is actually handling the relative nature due to this environment right here because of this very warm Pacific. Like I said this is going to get interesting. Okay especially as we head towards the cool season.

[00:10:14]Meanwhile, we also can't ignore the Atlantic here.

[00:10:20]Rather cool around the tropics.

[00:10:23]One would have to think that maybe we're going into a negative amo phase possibly. Um the water here off of the east coast here is pretty chilly still.

[00:10:35]Uh let's zoom in on that here on the east coast.

[00:10:40]Still, I mean, this is this is impressively cold out here. Why am I pointing this out? This continues to be a theme for us. Now, the immediate coastal wars are warming up, getting closer to normal, slightly below normal.

[00:10:56]So, we're not getting as significant of an impact, but this would lead to more marine air masses, stable air masses. Why is this important? Anytime you start hearing anybody talking about severe weather for the northern Mid-Atlantic, you really have to take this with a grain of salt because of this stable environment that is locked in. This feature keeps us in a scenario where at the very least, let's say from the Delaware River to the coastal plane, more than likely keeps you in a stable air mass. So, this would suggest more elevated thunderstorm threats and heavy rainfall threats, not severe threats. At least this would be one of the factors. Now, as you head towards eastern Pennsylvania, you can you can start having more conversations about that, right? But this really stands out to me at least through the rest of spring. And if this continues into summer, hey, it leads into summer concerns as well. This also would be a great sign for anybody who's concerned about the tropics around here because any tropical system that could power up in here would just run into a wall of colder water here. So, that's some good news. Well, hopefully that that holds.

[00:12:16]But, you know, we have a couple months to go before we really have to be concerned about that. Another pattern influence that I've been bringing up to premium members and I want to bring it up to you tonight is what's going on here in the stratosphere. Now, we have to keep an eye on the solar weather and every Friday premium members get an update every week on what's going on with the solar weather and and how it's impacting the atmosphere.

[00:12:46]And the reason why this is really important to me is because of where the warm anomalies are setting up in the mid latitudes.

[00:12:57]I've been kind of playing with this idea for a bit.

[00:13:01]the more that we see these warm anomalies in the mid latitudes, the more likely we're going to see these impressive troughs and and and whatnot um around the illutions and around the eastern United States. So the thing that we have to watch out for and I mentioned this today is a feedback potential between these warm anomalies setting up the below normal heights of 500 millibars below normal heights of 500 millibars in reverse start to set up the enhancement of of warm anomalies in the stratosphere which feed back on itself.

[00:13:39]And what happens is that you start locking the pattern in. And the problem in the summer is that there isn't all that much to alter the polar jetream dynamics.

[00:13:51]Pretty much tropical forcing. We already know what that is. Um, and you can you tend to start to lock yourself into themes.

[00:14:00]And when you start to see these themes showing up, this would suggest a pretty robust trough over the eastern United States. And if you read the summer forecast, premium members, um, then you know what I think about that. I think we're going to see more and more rain. I think, uh, we had some locations below normal for the end of April, some locations near normal.

[00:14:25]We are going to see more rainfall on the way.

[00:14:29]And, um, that is is something that I'm really really going to be keeping an eye on in that scenario. um with that rainfall potential. And and what stands out to me is that the model guidance continues to keep these warm anomalies showing up here over the eastern United States and around the illutions. And so you combine that with the 500 mibar pattern here and you could start to see the support for this persistent trough for short wave after short wave after short wave.

[00:15:07]And you know I mean it's one thing to see in the models but how about seeing it in real time? Well, let's just do this that. Here are the upper level winds.

[00:15:19]And what stands out beautifully is the enhancement of the subtropical gesture.

[00:15:25]Now, for over a year, we didn't have anything like this during the winter. Yeah, it was a little bit strong, but you know, it had some short waves every so often. And it did work with the polar jet stream every so often, but this is just a powerful jetream going right through the central Pacific, right through Hawaii, through Mexico, and right into our neck of the woods.

[00:15:54]And what that sets up, let's zoom out.

[00:16:00]And it just sets up this scenario where you have these waves of low pressure marching through. Nice little strong thunderstorm threat here. I was watching earlier on while I was setting up the Alabama network weather network. They do a great job with going over severe weather. And since it's not really my neck of the woods, I like to listen in, see what's going on there. Luckily, not much away severe weather down here, but plenty of rain. And believe me, you think we need the rain. They need the rain. And this is a great sign. This is a sign of our El Nino really taking hold, really starting to establish itself, introducing more moisture into the southern tier and eventually into the Mid-Atlantic. And what sets up for us is that as these disturbances are marching through, they're interacting with the polar jetream up here. And that sets up our storm threat.

[00:16:55]And it shows up really nicely when we take a look at the water vapor satellite picture.

[00:17:02]Just look at this. All this convection firing up, driving through Hawaii, driving right through Mexico.

[00:17:11]You can see the connection from those thunderstorms here all the way back to to the central Pacific. Beautiful thing.

[00:17:19]Absolutely beautiful.

[00:17:25]Absolutely beautiful. So, this is showing up just wonderfully of exactly what um I've been expecting for some time. And again, you can see a closeup here over the eastern United States. There's our trough and there is our moisture transport. Now, with this happening, by the way, as these short waves here in the subtropical jester continue to intensify there and as they interact with the polar jester, you're more than likely going to end up with positively tilted troughs. And this is a really important uh point here for upcoming cold fronts because of the way that this pattern's developing. expect more slowmoving cold fronts for the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England. That means you get prolonged periods of waves of rainfall.

[00:18:20]Your polar air masses have a harder time to get into the region. So, you end up with a lot of humid conditions this summer. I'm I'm definitely seeing that as a threat. Not so much hot humid sauna. sauna like you know uh well no not sauna like my sauna at the gym is like 200 degrees so it's not that bad uh but it'll be like 85 but it'll feel like 92 because the due point is 75 kind of like that type of scenario um and that also is going to introduce a lot of heavy rainfall potential so this is going to be something that is going to be something that we really have to watch and why I'm concerned about flood studying for this summer and I've already started preparing for it and you should too. So, our weather pattern over the next seven days is well active one short wave after another. Again, you see this constant interaction here between the polar and subtropical jetreams just marching across here. Okay? And so, this is going to keep us very active. This doesn't mean we're going to see like two inches of rain for each event, but a quarter of an inch here, a half an inch there. It starts to add up. I think we see that all through May and most likely into June as well. There's short wave after short wave um marching their way through the region.

[00:19:45]And one of the ways we know that that is likely going to continue to be the case is that the MJO can help us show us some of the details. The MJO is no longer driving this weather pattern. We all know that El Nino is taking over and we could tell that because our MJO phase is being overwhelmed by the El Nino influence. So everything stays on this side. Okay. And another way to see that is the um let's see here it is the atmospheric angular momentum. it's starting to shift towards a positive phase which means progressive fastmoving short waves one after the other. Uh you can get high latitude blocking but it's harder to stick. Um but a very active pattern. This is typically what you would see with El Nino and you're seeing that also with the MJO here which is also connected into that whole calculation for the positive aam.

[00:20:43]And so what you get here as we go through the rest of May and into early June, you get this neutral state which because of El Nino, it really doesn't matter. But then as you move into phase seven and eight, this introduces again a continuation of a trough in the east and a very active weather pattern for us. So again, everything's kind of lining up in that direction. So, as we uh take a look at the next couple of days, again, very active short waves, nothing that sticks.

[00:21:18]Everything's moving along. So, a lot of these rainfall events are four to eight hours in and out, keep on moving. Um, but we also see an increase in the precipal values. So, each one of these rainfall events will have a better chance for pushing over a quarter of an inch. Now, one thing um that I noticed for this Saturday is that the data originally had a little bit more drier air at the mid levels. So, I was a little bit more skeptical with rainfall for Saturday, but now the latest data really supports a nice consolidated area of rainfall um and keeping us well basically uh keeping us cloudy and uh wet on Saturday. Now, if you have outdoor plans for Saturday, probably not the best day, okay? Not a complete wash out, right? So, you'll have a break from time to time between these showers, but certainly not your best day. Your best day this weekend is going to be Sunday.

[00:22:20]Even that is still going to feature the potential for a few isolated showers with plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, opening up the potential for um some for a moderate downpour. And again, notice how this theme here, everything keeps moving, but there's one disturbance after another, one after another, marching their way through.

[00:22:43]And so for tonight, let me just show you some real quick. For tonight, there's a good chance of seeing a nice little moderate downpour. Don't be surprised around midnight to 3:00 a.m. that you get a little bit of heavier rainfall.

[00:22:57]That is from this feature down here and this low pressure system lifting to the northeast. This low pressure system following behind it with this area rainfall lifting right through. That's also showing up nicely in the infrared satellite picture.

[00:23:15]Let's get this loaded to new.

[00:23:19]And you can see this feature right here heading right towards us. That's going to open up the potential for a nice moderate to heavy downpour overnight tonight. So, don't be surprised uh if you're getting up to the bathroom that you get some uh you hear some heavy rainfall around 2:00 a.m. around the Philadelphia and New York City metropond areas. The Yankees and Phillies game should be fine. I think the Phillies already lost though, but the Yankees game will be fine. Um so, that shouldn't be too much of a problem.

[00:23:50]And then we take a look at this rest of the pattern.

[00:23:54]And like I said, Saturday, threat for showers.

[00:23:58]Sunday, not so much. Isolated showers, variable cloud cover. Monday, more rainfall.

[00:24:06]Wednesday, more rainfall. Kind of get the theme here. And this isn't like last year's pattern where we didn't see rain for like seven, eight days. This is one after another. Let's see. next Saturday periods of rain.

[00:24:21]This is going to lead to some rain outs for the Mets, which means they won't lose. Good news. Okay, so you see this is pretty active. Pretty active pattern.

[00:24:31]We've been talking about this. Now it's here. So, pretty impressive uh setup.

[00:24:37]So, now that I've kind of gone over everything that I'm looking at for this pattern, it's time to answer some questions. And we'll start off here in the uh premium and live chat.

[00:24:49]Uh let's see here. Uh only teams in American League over 500 are the Yankees, Devil Rays, and and A's. Now I I believe the Yankees.

[00:25:00]I'd even go with the the Rays. The A's.

[00:25:03]That's tells you everything you need to know about this baseball season. Uh, when do you see water temperatures on Long Island warming up to the 70s or higher? Uh, I don't.

[00:25:18]Maybe if you head down to No, not even southern New Jersey. I really don't expect it to be honest with you. Um, let me just check something with Twitch.

[00:25:32]It was having an issue. No, it looks like it's back now.

[00:25:39]Um around Long Island, I'm not really expecting 70° temperatures. Maybe down towards southern New Jersey.

[00:25:48]Let's see here. Uh the stratospheric observations regarding ozone concentration of warming is is of real interest. You Yes, it is. Uh starting to wonder about the impact of on all the material from the rocket launches. Not just SpaceX, but but China is launching a bunch, too. Not really. It it when you have all those rocket launches, they're like a they're like a a pin drop compared to all the other impacts from solar activity and the controlled re-entry and destruction of earlier Starlink and other satellites so they can be replaced as they age with new ones. Um, well, I'm not I don't think there's too much of an impact to be honest with you.

[00:26:33]I mean, well, it has to be studied. I'm sure it is, but nothing I could see.

[00:26:38]There's nothing that is too abnormal from what I would typically see with a weakening solar influence because of the sun becoming more quiet. Um, but one thing of course is the whole influence from the volcano a couple of years ago.

[00:26:52]That is still a theme and that is still a factor in our analysis as well. 0.25 inches of rain every other day for a couple of months would do wonders for our residual drought. I agree. I think we're heading in that direction. Um now when we start getting our precipitable water values pushing over 2 in, which is going to be a possibility this summer, that's when things are going to get interesting with the potential for floods around here.

[00:27:22]Uh, let's see here. Okay, we fixed a whole issue on with not being able to show anything for a minute there at the very start. I know I got so enthusiastic about talking about El Nino, I completely forgot to switch over to make sure that was showing up on the screen. So, that's my bad.

[00:27:42]Yeah, I got a little bit ahead of myself. Let's see what we have here on YouTube because I saw an interesting question. Uh, can you please explain how the snow sticks in Denver yesterday when it's early May, high sun angle, and it's been the 80s before the storm? Ah, fair question.

[00:28:03]>> Now, the one thing you have to understand is that let's start with the Poconos. The Poconos is the highest elevation somewhere around 2,00 maybe 2,200 feet somewhere around there.

[00:28:18]The base for Denver, the city of Denver.

[00:28:23]Again, there's higher mountains above Denver is 5,000 roughly 200 feet. It could be off a couple feet here and there. So, 5,200 ft. That's pretty high up in elevation.

[00:28:38]So, the only thing you really need, and this is why I will never move to Houston. I will never move to Denver. I mean, and I will never forecast for Denver ever, ever, because it's a nightmare. It lit literally is um to try to forecast up there. Um, no thanks. Um, but all you really need is an intensifying upper level low and some cold air and vection 850 850 millibars. Boom. I mean, right now here in the in the Northeast, you had 850 millibar temperatures are expected to be around freezing, right?

[00:29:21]So, imagine if we were up to that elevation, right? And you had 850 mibar temperatures fall to around zero or minus one. That's how you get that snow.

[00:29:33]And guess what? tomorrow, which is why I wish the Mets are playing a double header instead instead of playing tonight when it's going to be like 35 degrees out. Tomorrow afternoon, they're going to be 65 and sunny and all that snow is going to melt away like that because the snow has a high water content. So, uh, yeah, trying to figure out how to how to do snow plowing and also landscaping at the same time. So, some of you snowplow guys out there, just think about that setup. just an absolute nightmare. Um, but that's basically how you pull that off. You have to have very high elevations, which in the Rockies you do, and then you have a perfect setup for uh intensifying low pressure system, falling 500 mibar heights, cold enough 850 mibar temperatures, you throw in some moisture, voila, there you go. There's your snow. And then that all exits the region. You have your Pacific air come flooding back in. and the next day that's how you're 65 and sunny and everything's melting before you know it.

[00:30:38]So, uh yeah, it's a real pain in the neck to forecast for that is for sure.

[00:30:43]Uh let's see here. Uh just checking out this point here in the premium chat. Uh lots of aluminum material related materials at high levels which can apparently impact ozone layers.

[00:30:56]Yeah, I mean there has been studies in that thus far based on the ozone layer uh analysis. Um that hasn't been a factor there. The observations show that we aren't doing enough of that yet. Um hopefully we don't, you know, um but so far that's not really a factor in what we've been seeing. Um when will we have a good indicator of the fall winter pattern regarding in regards to El Nino time frame would make some predictions.

[00:31:28]Oh no look when it comes to winter it's not just El Nino it's a big factor especially this upcoming fall and winter. Um and as we move on through the summer we're going to learn a lot about his characteristics. Uh this is why I'm watching that warm water so much. Um, we're gonna learn a lot and by the time we get to the end of the summer, we'll have a pretty good understanding of how to handle this El Nino, whether it actually becomes a super El Nino as some might call it or if it's a moderate El Nino. Now, I say moderate because not because of the actual raw number, but because of the influence of that relative factor we were talking about with the rest of the War Pacific. Um, there's a lot we don't know. So, we're gonna have to take a look and see how that does. Uh NASA just put something out in April about satellites, which why I raised raised it. Apparently, aluminum oxide. Yeah, I mean, we do have a lot of satellites and older satellites. I just I don't have I don't have any observational data or neither does NASA uh showing that it's directly impacting the uh stratosphere or any of the anomalies in the stratosphere. And if it was there would be more anomalies I would think more towards um parts of of Siberia and then moving into the Pacific because that's where you have a lot of your entries cuz you know when they have satellites crash in they usually crash into the Pacific. Why?

[00:33:01]Because it's the Pacific and no one's around there so it won't damage any property. Um, so thus far I haven't seen much in terms of any type of uh influence from that, but we'll keep an eye on it. You know, always reading up all sorts of research.

[00:33:17]Heading back to YouTube here. Oh, I got a question from Philly Weather. What are your thoughts on latest European Enzo output? I'm assuming it's using O andi, correct?

[00:33:28]Yeah, I mean the European output. Let me see. I think I got that up here.

[00:33:35]Do I have? Yeah, here it is. I mean, this is impressive.

[00:33:39]I mean, hello. That would be record-breaking. Okay. Uh, this is the Nino anomalies um for the European forecast monthly mean anomalies based on the 1981 to 2010 climatology.

[00:33:59]That's impressive. I mean, there's no doubt about that. Um, but again, I stress these models sometimes, I know, I know no one wants to hear it, but sometimes they tend to, I don't know, overdo some of these forecasts.

[00:34:20]Here's how I'm playing this, and I I' I've gotten some sideeyed from some individuals on this. Are we dealing with an El Nino? Absolutely. Are we going to have El Nino impacts? 100%. Okay. 100%.

[00:34:37]Based on the fact that we've seen in these climate models that they tend to overdo these Enzo events on both spectrums, the El Nino and L'inino.

[00:34:53]I am simply waiting and seeing to see just how robust this actually ends up being because I know what the error is. Which is why I'm not running around screaming Godzilla, El Ninos, and all that other stuff because I I don't want to overhype something because if it ends up here, right, down here or even here, let's say at about two and a quarter, right, and then you take off that half a degree because of the relative nature, right, that that we've been talking about, then you just got your traditional strong El Nino.

[00:35:38]That's all. That's all.

[00:35:41]So, there's no reason to to be to really jump the gun on this, so to speak. There's definitely going to be El Nino. It's definitely going to influence our weather pattern in the in this in this spring and summer. It's already doing that in the spring. It's going to really put a real kibash on the Atlantic hurricane season. Of course, you always want to be prepared because you only need one to create a lot of havoc, right? Um, but I think it's going to be a very quiet season. Um, and this winter has the potential of being interesting because aside from the El Nino and aside from the QBO, we have to watch how the stratosphere evolves and we have to see what happens with the polar vortex.

[00:36:33]So, there's a lot of unknowns. Okay. Uh, this could easily be a very I could see this being a quiet winter all the way up through like mid January and then you get one or two blockbuster storms and then we go quiet again. I could totally see that out of this winter. Um, or I could see a string of storms like what we're seeing here. Some rain, some snow, some mix and popery of of weather for for um the winter. I do not think this winter is going to be quiet in terms of storm potential, in terms of precipitation.

[00:37:08]I just don't know how everything's going to come together. No one really does.

[00:37:13]But this El Nino is definitely going to be a playmaker. There's there's no doubt about that. I'm just not comfortable I've never been comfortable with declaring historic events before they actually become observantly historical.

[00:37:30]That's just kind of how I roll. Other people are far more confident on that.

[00:37:34]That's fine. But what do you say when it fails? And the reason the reason why I'm mindful of that is that let's be honest, our science in general, whether it's medical, environmental, meteorology, um it's taken a bit of hit in terms of people trusting what you have to say.

[00:37:57]Uh, now you guys trust what I have to say. I appreciate that. I love it. Um, so thank you. But it makes me mindful to say, "Hey, let's let's pull it back in.

[00:38:10]Let's go with what we know for sure and then discuss what are the other potentials moving forward." I think that is a better way to go about this. Um, let's see.

[00:38:25]I feel like we have to look at both OI and R O Ni when it comes to next winter.

[00:38:31]Atmospheric response may resemble moderate El Nino strong or strong, but the heat in the Pacific would keep us much warmer. Correct. Uh again, this is from uh Philly weather on uh Twitch. And I don't know yet.

[00:38:50]Um it it would definitely it would keep the southeast cooler cuz you'd have a lot of storms. Uh it would make the northern plains warm um because you typically don't have a lot of polar and arctic air masses diving in. Um but you can have that marching through the Great Lakes and New England depending on the interaction. So a winter forecast is not made by one feature. So we have to be mindful of that.

[00:39:20]You could do that for parts of the country, but not for the Northeast and the Northern Mid-Atlantic. It's far more complicated. You could point to strong Elnos where we've had a couple of major winter storms and an impressive winter and you've had uh rain all winter. It's just a matter of how these how these different features interact and come together. So, it's something that we're definitely going to have to keep an eye on and see how it plays out. That is for sure.

[00:39:48]Let me go back here.

[00:39:53]Let's see.

[00:40:03]I missed the last couple so I don't know if you've given an update. Any new word on the website and mobile app? Oh, I'm not one thing. No mobile app. Okay. Um, the reason why I don't do mobile app is that first of all, uh, I've never done the mobile app. And the reason why is that the actual app, like an Apple app, I'm not about to give up 30% to Apple. That that's not happening. Okay. Um, so yeah, Apple has enough money. I love Apple, but I'm not giving up 30% of my subscriptions to them to make an app. Now, the website is um mobile friendly, so like you could download it onto your your desktop. We ran into some server issues that we actually work we're actually getting a fix for this tomorrow. Um and so because there were some security and server issues that are being addressed um with my provider, we wanted to get that nailed down. Uh, I saw the new website.

[00:41:05]It's banging, but you know, we have some work to do and we want to get that done.

[00:41:10]I do not want to launch with any type of security because your profiles are on here. So, I'm not going to do that. Uh, but I'll never do a mobile app because in order to get get a mobile app on on iTunes or not iTunes, but you know, the Apple platform, um, you have to jump through a lot of hoops, which are ridiculous. um other people may like it.

[00:41:34]I don't see the point when you can download it and it could be mobile friendly, you know. Um and I don't like the idea of Apple demanding that um they need to know the subscribers, their names, the the accounts.

[00:41:51]No, because you may not want anything to do with Apple and then they're getting that information via the app.

[00:42:00]No, no thanks. And I don't it's not fair to anybody who doesn't want anything to do with Apple to be exposed to that.

[00:42:07]Wasn't too long ago that the ECM F kept predicting massive polar stratosphere cooling eliminating warming warming pools two weeks out for three months straight. Yep. And it I was suspicious of that and that's why I didn't buy into it. I also can't believe I saw on Facebook today a forecast already talking about a winter forecast. Warm and wet or cold and lots of snow. He can generate a lot of clicks. Yeah. I mean, look, there's ways if I had no All right, let's be fair. If I had no ethics, I could probably make a ton of money with all sorts of ridiculous clicks. All sorts. I know exactly how.

[00:42:51]It's not that I don't know how to do it.

[00:42:54]It's I have an ego and I didn't spend all that time in co Well, I have a conscience and I have an ego. I have a conscience in that I don't want to screw up screw with you guys and I have an ego in that I busted my ass to earn my degree. I'm not going to flush it down the toilet with nonsense like covering half the country in red and say big storm or a huge tornado in the middle of Manhattan. It it does kill your cred credibility and you know you have to make a you have to make a decision. Do you want to have credibility or do you just want to be rich? Look, money is nice. It is. I'm not going to I'm not going to be, you know, naive and say you don't need money. You need money. Especially in this economy, you need money.

[00:43:41]But longevity is only possible if you have credibility and you have ethics.

[00:43:50]I am not going to be a flash in a pan.

[00:43:53]So, hey, I've been here for 19 years. I want to be here for another 20, 30 more.

[00:44:00]I'm just going to steadily build this business and I'm happy for it.

[00:44:06]Uh it looks like the past 15 past the 15th, excuse me, uh we can see more constantly warmer temperatures in mid to upper 70s. Um I think we'll definitely see warmer temperatures just because climatologically we'll be warmer. Uh, I'm a little bit hesitant with sustained upper 70s and 80s just yet. The model guidance was trying to produce a ridge is starting to back off on that. I wouldn't be surprised if we're somewhere in the lower to mid70s just climatologically speaking. It would make more sense. Um, we our average would be around 6970.

[00:44:48]Um, we'll probably have a few warm days like what we had the other day where we got up into the 80s. Um, I would say that we probably see a lot more normal. If you're lucky, the Mets might be good enough for another World Series in 20 to 30 years. I think the Mets are going to win the World Series this year. You watch, they're going to win it this year.

[00:45:10]>> They are. I'm telling you.

[00:45:14]>> I'm telling you, they're going to it's going to be it's going to this is going to be the type of run that that they make movies.

[00:45:22]>> Be careful. from the worst to the best.

[00:45:26]And and then the climatic point will be when the Mets take out the Dodgers and the NLCS and they do it by hitting a home run off of some pitcher pitching in the ninth.

[00:45:38]What's his name? I don't know. Some guy with trumpets. They're going to just knock a home run. It's going to be beautiful. And I'm going to lose my voice and we're all going to be happy.

[00:45:47]And then they go on to the World Series and I don't know, they'll probably face on the Mariners or somebody like that, but not as climatic, but still I think I think there's a good chance of that.

[00:46:01]Oh, well, there's a pretty impressive cell in southwest Mississippi earlier.

[00:46:06]Yeah. Um definitely a uh impressive, but supposedly not much in the way of severe thunderstorms down there. I was listening to to the Alabama weather uh network and they were pointing out that they have a lot of heavy rainfall but not much in the way of uh severe weather. Uh let me just see what else we got here in YouTube world.

[00:46:30]Uh could there be thunder and lightning with that tonight? I wouldn't be surprised we get a little bit of rumble of thunder. Would not be surprised by that, but nothing severe. Steve, sorry I'm late. No problem. You're here now, right? Got distracted by a tornado emergency PDS warning in Mississippi.

[00:46:48]Uh, does the MJO going into circle death mean some quieter weather for us? No, because El Nino is just kind of overwhelming all of that. Um, let's see here. Let's take a look and see what we got here around Mississippi.

[00:47:07]Let's see.

[00:47:09]like that and that.

[00:47:13]And let's see if we can put some watches and warnings on here.

[00:47:28]And let's zoom in here.

[00:47:31]We have some pretty impressive storms. I mean, not for nothing.

[00:47:38]Look at this. Let's see what we got here. Um, tornado warning for northeast Forest County and southeast Mississippi.

[00:47:48]Tornado producing storm located near, let's see here. Wow, golf ball size hail. Yeah, you could keep it down there. I have no interest in that being anywhere near here. Thank you very much.

[00:48:00]What a nasty storm. Wow, that's pretty da That's pretty impressive. Let's see if we can get some more data on this.

[00:48:09]Um, let's Yeah, totally.

[00:48:15]I want to see if I storm tracks in here.

[00:48:17]Where is it? There it is.

[00:48:21]There we go. Now we're talking. Let's see what we got here.

[00:48:28]All right, this storm cell uh moving at 40 miles per hour, 3.25 25 inch hail size, max hail size.

[00:48:38]And their TVS is detected. Let's see if we can zoom in a little bit more.

[00:48:44]That is something. Look at that.

[00:48:47]That is one nasty storm.

[00:48:50]And it looks like there's a nice uh circulation right around here.

[00:48:59]And like I said, they can I gladly will will keep that storm well away from us. Wow.

[00:49:08]73 DBZ. That's some pretty impressive rainfall, too.

[00:49:14]That's impressive. That is one impressive storm.

[00:49:18]Let's see here.

[00:49:20]Is it possible those mid to upper 90s in midappril are the warmest we get this spring? definitely warmest we get this spring and this spring. I'm not sure about I can't say the summer. So, so saying that would be like the winter will only have like if we had like an a blast of cold air in November and we and me saying that we won't see that in January and February, it's kind of pushing my luck. Um, all I need is one ridge and I can definitely see us getting into the upper 90s for like a day or two. So I can't say that we definitely won't see that in the summer again. Certainly is a spring though. You mentioned a suppressed severe threat for our area, but can we see more lightning charge storms because of pew values or thunderstorms to be more garden variety with heavy rain? Um once we get sustained pew values over one inch, we'll have the better chance of seeing more frequent vivid lightning storms um with the heavy rain. So, it's certainly a possibility, especially this summer. It's definitely a possibility.

[00:50:35]>> Uh, let's see here.

[00:50:43]Did I miss a discussion on what's causing the mock lania plus TN pattern?

[00:50:49]Um well because the reason why we actually I've actually been talking about this quite a bit with uh my premium members. Um the reason why we we still have what's called an echo to what we have with the winter pattern. This that winter pattern isn't just going to disappear like that. It kind of fades away. Um part of what we're seeing though is we're seeing that transition from Leninia to El Nino. And you can literally see that in uh statistical analysis which if I could pick the right one here. Ah here we are with the atmospheric angular momentum. This is more leninia like state. This is more El Nino like state and we are starting to move into the branch of transitioning towards more Elinoike state. So this updated on May 4th. See here this is May 6. So we're right about here in this forecast. So this is why we kind have that echo and then it fades away as we start to shift more towards a positive atmospheric angle of momentum.

[00:52:03]I think Diaz will be back this season.

[00:52:06]I'm curious to see what happens. Um, hey Dodger fans, if he isn't throwing 99 miles per hour, that's a problem. Trust me on this. Uh, who was your favorite meteorologist as a child? Oh, man. Um, I loved Lloyd Lindseay Young.

[00:52:28]>> That was mine.

[00:52:29]>> Yeah, that was yours, too.

[00:52:31]>> Yeah, >> I loved Lloyd Lindseay Young. And then of course can't go out saying Jim Canouri. See Lloyd Lindseay Young I love because it showed that you could have fun with meteorology.

[00:52:43]>> Yes.

[00:52:44]>> Um Jim Canour was like cuz fellow Italian um really impeccable suits. I don't know where he got those suits from but they were beautiful. Um but he was the first one to use the water vapor. And the reason why that's really important to me is I'm color blind. So, it's the first time I actually saw the weather and actually understood it. So, I love watching his presentations. Um, John Hope from the Weather Channel, he dealt with tropical weather. He was a tropical expert. He was amazing in detailing. He was bored sometimes, right? He'd be like, "Yeah, this is really nothing.

[00:53:25]It's a circulation. Here's a circulation. It might pick up. You know, you guys can calm down though. It's just going to be heavy rain." like he was like very nonchalant, but when a storm really when when Gilbert was was approaching uh he really really would get really um dive into the data and had Andrew and whatnot. Um he was just outstanding. So those were some of my favorites.

[00:53:55]Looks like we've gotten some heavy downpours near I78 from Summit Union and Franklin. Uh yeah, let's pull that up.

[00:54:04]Let me go swing Let me go swing up. Let me zoom out here.

[00:54:10]Say hello to our thunderstorms.

[00:54:13]Here comes our heavy rainfall cutting through Virginia.

[00:54:18]And here comes our heavy rain starting to lock in for us. So you can see that whole moisture transport. Zoom out. You can see that whole moisture transport just pushing right in and these showers starting to break out. No thunderstorms or anything, but uh certainly showers are on the way.

[00:54:40]When did you start saying stay safe out there? I think I've always said that.

[00:54:52]>> Probably >> if it wasn't So probably somewhere in the vicinity of Sandy.

[00:54:58]>> Yeah.

[00:55:00]>> It Yeah, right around there. I would agree with that.

[00:55:06]So I would say probably around Sandy.

[00:55:08]That would probably that' probably be good.

[00:55:12]Is it just me or a lot of Italian? A lot of there are a lot of Italian meteorologists. Um they're probably a good bunch. Absolutely.

[00:55:23]you know, we were explorers, right? So, it would make sense that that there'd be a lot interested in meteorology.

[00:55:35]Um, does El Nino mean stronger hurricanes?

[00:55:39]No.

[00:55:41]El Nino means weaker hurricanes for the Atlantic. Stronger hurricanes or what they would call typhoons in the Pacific.

[00:55:55]was my favorite. Will there be will this summer be more cooler than usual? Um, it will definitely have cool phases. I really like the idea of humid. Humid.

[00:56:09]That's going to be the term of this summer. Humid, swampy, wet, damp.

[00:56:17]uh the type of weather where it's 75 but the due point is 70, you know, um this kind of steamy steamy.

[00:56:28]There we go. Steamy. Steamy summer.

[00:56:31]Yeah, this is going to be a steamy summer. Not necessarily hot. Steamy.

[00:56:38]It's going to be the type of summer where if you walk outside and you have glasses on right from the air conditioner, all of a sudden you can't see anything. It's like I'm blind. And every time you go in and out of the house, you go blind because you can't see anything because of condensation.

[00:56:53]It's going to be one of those type of summers.

[00:57:02]So yeah, look at that. We answered all the questions and look really nice feed here on YouTube. Let me see if we got anything on X here.

[00:57:13]Uh, no, looks quiet. And on Facebook, do we have anything?

[00:57:25]>> I mean, eventually. Yeah, we definitely will have hot conditions.

[00:57:30]Yes, it'll definitely we'll definitely have hot days in the summer. Just I just don't think we'll see a lot of heat waves in the summer. Um there's always one like you I I take the same approach that you would take in winter, right?

[00:57:44]There's always that one cold snap, right? There's always that one heat wave, but it's not going to last. It's just this pattern's just not supportive of that. 76 76ers versus Knicks game is really close. Oh, okay. I didn't even know they were playing tonight. I h I can't get into the NBA. I tried. I just can't. But I do hope whoever you guys are vote you are rooting for that they do well.

[00:58:14]Sure. Uh what temperature do you keep your house in the summer?

[00:58:19]Um what about Yeah, >> we keep it about 73.

[00:58:24]>> Yeah, about 73. Yeah, we keep it right about there. Um, I know there's some crazy people get their house down to 66 and stuff. Do you know that?

[00:58:36]>> Isn't terribly big and you know, >> right?

[00:58:40]>> It holds cool air pretty well.

[00:58:42]>> Yes, it definitely does hold well because of the way it's positioned with the sun. It doesn't warm like this room warms up a bit.

[00:58:49]>> Yeah.

[00:58:50]>> But >> this is the most extreme for temperature. Yeah, because the sun is so strong from here. That's why I pull up the shade. I I pull down the shades in the middle of the day.

[00:59:02]>> That's true.

[00:59:04]>> And there's more computers in here.

[00:59:06]That adds too, but um yeah, you know, we don't go extreme. I know there's some people I went to a house where someone was keeping their house at 66° >> to be a refrigerator. I just need to be >> Yeah. I'm like this is chilly. I mean, I couldn't even believe what their electric bill is going to be. Holy smokes. 66. No, thank you. No, that's just that's just too chilly. We try to keep it 73 74 for the whole year. That's usually where we're at.

[00:59:40]Now, I mean, I I can't afford to be any warmer than 74, 75 because then it could damage the computers >> when we start to get up. Yeah. Too many too much electronics to So you have to balance I get the cost factor of it. You kind have to balance out like if we didn't have a business we did have a business running here. I didn't rely on the computers um or anything streaming then the cost analysis would be like yeah we're going we're going to be a little bit warmer in here but we wouldn't feel it as much because we wouldn't have as many computers running right. So that would make more sense.

[01:00:18]So, I try to keep mine 69 to 71 or so, but that's because of medical reasons.

[01:00:26]Hey. Yeah. Hey, if you got medical reasons, there you go. Uh, >> I get hot flashes, which is so much fun.

[01:00:33]>> Yeah. So, what causes temporary hot flashes in an Elino pattern? Uh it's just, you know, when you're having a lot of progressive troughs and ridges, sometimes you align just right with a ridge and you have a strong high pressure system, let's say, shifting off of Virginia. Uh that can certainly set up a hot pattern for a short period of time. Uh we had something similar like that uh just a couple of days ago uh where we jumped up into the 80s and then we fall right back down. So that's why uh Yep.

[01:01:09]Do you like beer as much as you like coffee? I don't drink beer. I don't drink alcohol. I don't I don't drink. I mean, I really I might have a wine in like like Christmas or something, you know, like if my brother gave me one.

[01:01:23]Um, >> yeah, like a dinner or something. But even that, I do not like drinking. I don't like any of that stuff. It's like yuck. I'm just not >> smell of beer makes me queasy.

[01:01:37]>> Yeah. You don't like smell beer at all?

[01:01:39]And I do like beer batter and fries.

[01:01:42]I do like those. I do have to admit I do like those. Um but I don't drink at all.

[01:01:49]It's probably why I look so good.

[01:01:51]>> Wedding. Um and we had cherry cos.

[01:01:54]>> Yeah, we had cherry cos all night. The bartender looked at us like, "What's going on?" Like I'm driving. All right, leave me alone. He's like, "Okay."

[01:02:03]like I did, >> you know. So, let's see here.

[01:02:12]>> Uh, yeah, I'm proud.

[01:02:14]>> Oh, yeah. Absolutely. Are you kidding me? That's like that that's not And so that's a statement. That's like Yeah, no kidding.

[01:02:24]Please.

[01:02:27]Star Trek. What else? Godzilla.

[01:02:32]Well, yeah. I mean, I >> Huh. Yeah. I was messing with the Star Wars fans the the other day, you know, using uh >> you were putting up Star Trek.

[01:02:43]>> Yes. Yes. I can't get into Star Wars.

[01:02:46]I'm sorry. It's like I'm going to use the force. I like Star Trek better. At least it's based on science. I just >> Voltron's good. Yes, Voltron is is outstanding. Um, oh, we have another tornado emergency in Mississippi, apparently. I mean, they're just I mean, it's Mississippi. It's not too much of a surprise, but uh they're having a rough time of it. There's another one down there.

[01:03:17]Southern Mississippi. And that's about to move right into Alabama, probably southwestern Alabama.

[01:03:25]But the rest of area is pretty quiet.

[01:03:28]But, uh, tell you one thing, those guys down here, they're going to have their fun. That is for sure.

[01:03:36]I heard some stormchasers were pretty upset with the fact there weren't more tornadoes. And I'm like, are you Why?

[01:03:44]I don't get it. I don't get it.

[01:03:47]But, well, it is 8:58. I'm going to take the last question here and then uh not sure how the force isn't science. Okay, I'll explain how the forces in science because there's no basis of it. At least in Star Trek, there is some actual realistic basis to it. Um, >> sounds like >> Yeah, it's not really my thing. Uh, bowling bottled black cherry is awesome.

[01:04:18]Great ginger ale and cola as well. New Jersey company that uses cane. I'm sorry. The Bolan Hold it, honey. Write this down. Bowlan bottling bottlings.

[01:04:30]Apparently, they have black cherry, ginger, great ginger ale, and cola. So, I have to I have to look this up cuz hey, we do like our sodas. That's for sure. We can get a good ginger ale.

[01:04:44]>> Like good.

[01:04:45]>> Good ginger ale is good in this house.

[01:04:56]Let me just So, real quick, what's going on in I guess we can jump down here real fast.

[01:05:07]But the reason why you have these tornadoes fire firing off, I mean, first of all, look at the shear all over the place.

[01:05:20]Okay. So, you have your your bulk shear pretty strong.

[01:05:25]Um, let's see here.

[01:05:29]Elicity is through the roof.

[01:05:34]Let's take a look at the winds here.

[01:05:43]Look at that. Look at that dynamic there.

[01:05:47]So, you're seeing the the cyclonic circulation showing up here.

[01:05:54]And let's me go down here. Let's see if I can pull up the skew T on this.

[01:06:03]Here we are. Regions southeast.

[01:06:19]and sounding here.

[01:06:23]And you have you have some support here.

[01:06:26]Again, it's one or two thunderstorms that are are really severe. The rest of the of the soundings here are not all that impressive to be honest with you.

[01:06:38]So, it looks like this thunderstorm really was able to maximize the environment that it's in with the bulk shear and there's plenty of moisture.

[01:06:46]There's no doubt about that. But a lot of these other thunderstorms are basically staying below severe levels with a lot of lightning and heavy rainfall which tells me that we have high uh precipitable water values. We're going to bet that's the case here.

[01:07:02]And there we go. I mean, you have, look, when you have precipitable water values like that, this supports a lot of lightning, a lot of heavy rainfall, a lot updraft, and so you get just you get a scenario here setting up where you get a nice mess low. Uh, that's how you can get one of these thunderstorms really starting to ramp up and supporting the tornado aspect of it. Um, so that's what we're seeing tonight.

[01:07:28]So, I think let's see next week. Okay. Well, I think that um I think that does it for tonight. I hope everyone down in Mississippi is going to be okay. And as always, thank you for following along for tonight. I will see you next week.

[01:07:45]And as always, stay safe out there.