HISTORIC BITCOIN WARNING SIGNAL FLASHING NOW!? DOGECOIN SUPERCYCLE PUMP COMING OR BEAR MARKET TOP?

本站添加: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]Good morning to the viewers around the globe. Welcome to another blockchain debriefing.

[00:00:08]And we begin with our liquidation map.

[00:00:12]As we briefly highlight that we are getting a little bit closer to the money down here at around 79,000. You can see just going back to 79,000, we would liquidate over $2 billion.

[00:00:23]And actually 2.5 billion.

[00:00:26]And there's a little bit more money on the upside at about 1.8 billion at 83,000.

[00:00:31]Now, it is worth noting as I say every single time we talk about this, at some point I do think we're in a bear market, so we will come down to these lower levels. The question is, will we get this money out first? Now, the problem with that is every time we go up here, people Excuse me. People re-short. So, whenever the top forms, there's always going to be a certain amount of money that never gets liquidated. That's the issue.

[00:00:58]The problem is, will we come up here again and get these people out first? I think the only way you would truly be able to liquidate people permanently is to go up and then come right back down.

[00:01:08]Whenever we consolidate the way that we are, people re-short again, which is why it's a never-ending merry-go-round of money getting pushed in and out. But again, there is around 3 billion at around 78,700.

[00:01:23]So, at some point I do think we will head down there because I do think we're in a bear market.

[00:01:30]Now, with that said, over the last 2 weeks we've been beating into the ground that we're in a bull market bullish environment. The momentum is overbought on every time frame. I believe heading up to the 12-day time frame.

[00:01:48]Now, this has never happened in a bear market. So, this is the biggest argument that people could make for a super cycle. I'm very big on momentum and the reality is you've never had this in a bear market where the stock RSI goes from oversold to overbought on every single time frame heading up to the to the 13-day. You can see in both or in all prior bear markets this has never happened before.

[00:02:15]All right, the only argument you could make is you got it here but we don't know if that's the actual bottom or if this is the actual bottom.

[00:02:23]It's obviously up to you whichever one you want to use but the reality is while we've never seen this in a bear market, which is something we've beat into the ground we've also never seen this momentum and the price not take the previous high.

[00:02:43]So we're going to continue to push the narrative that it's bullish and or the price will remain elevated but we're getting a new 12-day candle today.

[00:02:57]So there's technically a world where the clock starts today for Bitcoin to start going parabolic and every 12 days that pass every 12 days that passes that we don't see this high get taken increases the probability that we will get that last move down. Now, I want to make it clear cuz I I don't mind standing by my opinion. I do think we are coming down here.

[00:03:29]The question is how long are we going to sit here for? And I'm willing to bet that the clock has officially started because we're in a bull market bullish environment right now. The S&P is going to the moon. The stock RSI is back to overbought. We've said this over and over again.

[00:03:49]And while Bitcoin is definitely climbing, which is why we have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. It's not doing what it should be doing, which is going parabolic to new high.

[00:03:59]Now, I don't necessarily think we have to take out the high anytime soon, but we have to at least take this high. Now again, maybe that ends up happening, so I have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt because it is max bullish, but I actually argue starting today, this stock RSI is going to start pivoting.

[00:04:18]And well, maybe it doesn't. Maybe it goes even higher. I don't know. That's that's that's actually true, too. It could pivot even higher. So, we're going to have to see how it looks tomorrow morning cuz there is technically a possibility here that it does go even higher. That's even more bullish, right?

[00:04:33]So, even though I'm Mr. Bear, I'm giving the bulls the respect they deserve because it is max bullish, but I personally believe heading into the summer, we'll start to see that tire out.

[00:04:46]And that's been what's been happening over the last four summers. I want to reiterate that important point. Okay, we topped out in the summer of 2025. We topped out technically in the spring, but again, the summer of 2024, we crashed out of the summer. We topped out in July of 2023, and we also topped in August of 2022.

[00:05:07]In the last four summers, there was a very large move down coming out of the summer. So, I have to assume that Bitcoin failing to take this high should result in another major move down, but because we have this stock RSI all the way up here, we could potentially speculate that we're going to see a similar sized move where Bitcoin fell by 30%. Bitcoin fell by 33%.

[00:05:35]This one was obviously very large at 34%. So, if we fall by 34%, that puts us all the way down at 50,000. Now, obviously it's too early to say if the top is in. I'm not saying the top is in.

[00:05:48]Um I don't know. I have no issue admitting that. And I'm going to continue to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt, but every candle that goes by, here it is again, 13-day time frame, that this doesn't actually play out, it is confirming that we are still in a bear market.

[00:06:06]So, I actually have another chart to share with you, but it will talk about Dogecoin.

[00:06:11]Same exact concept. A lot of people are under the impression that the bottom is in. Maybe it is, but the 12-day and the 10-day and the 11-day stock RSI are all exploding to the upside. Now, yesterday on the live stream, we found something very interesting.

[00:06:31]We have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt until they confirm they're not doing anything. I'm going to tell you why.

[00:06:39]In 2022, Dogecoin came all the way back to the low, but you can see that the stock RSI was climbing anyway.

[00:06:52]And at the very last second, you could see Dogecoin had a monster spike.

[00:06:59]But the monster spike came as the stock RSI was climbing, even though the price was going down. That's why I have to respect the stock RSI because this exact scenario has played out before, where the price looks like it's about to go down, and then all of the sudden, you notice the stock RSI never went down, and then a big-ass green candle came in.

[00:07:23]I can't rule that out.

[00:07:25]That's why I'm giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt, but it's when we do finally see the stock RSI go like this, that's when we definitively know, all right, the top is in. We're actually going down now, and I have to I have to argue that the stock RSI doing that without any type of big rally for Dogecoin will actually signal that the bottom is not in and we're going much lower. So, if we do see the price move lower but the stock RSI doesn't actually go down, you still have to be open to this scenario because it literally happened just 4 years ago.

[00:08:06]And you can see here we went down, but the stock RSI also went down and we still went up anyway, but you have to remember that Bitcoin was basically going parabolic here.

[00:08:19]So, obviously if Bitcoin is going parabolic, then that will also help Doge, but if Bitcoin is crashing in 2022 Bitcoin was bleeding, but Doge spiked anyway.

[00:08:31]So, we're going to continue to monitor the stock RSI. It is very repetitive, but I cannot stress or emphasize enough that if you're looking for a bull push, you're in the environment for it to happen.

[00:08:42]Which means if it doesn't happen, there's nowhere else for us to go but back down to these lower prices and I would have to argue that the summer time is probably that cut off where Dogecoin failing to take the prior high by the summer should result in a new low and Doge making a new high is definitely possible up until the summer. So, we can remain again bullish or elevated price expectations, have expectations that the price will be elevated heading into the summer, but once we hit that sweet spot of like July-ish and the price doesn't still break the high, I would say prepare for the move down because we'll know for sure that the 4-year cycle has remained intact and we would have a we would have a lot of room to go down.

[00:09:31]So, we can remain optimistic in the short to medium term, maybe like June-July-ish, but I actually do think the summer will be the reversal point.

[00:09:41]And this chart that we talked about on the live stream yesterday is giving us a very big indication that that may actually be happening. This is the light the long-term holders MVRV.

[00:09:54]And you'll notice that in 2025, we put a high in and the green is the indicator and the white is the price.

[00:10:03]The price made a new high, but the indicator did not and then we fell.

[00:10:08]If you actually zoom in further, you can see in January, the price made a new high, the indicator did not and then we fell.

[00:10:17]We're seeing right now that the indicator is not moving, but the price is making a new high.

[00:10:22]Now, it doesn't mean it that the indicator can't make a new high, maybe it does, it's too early, but I'm giving you the warning sign that as currently constructed the market is telling us that this is not a real rally.

[00:10:34]You can see in 2021, the same thing happened. You put a high in and then when the price made another high, this indicator did not and then we were bearish. Believe it or not, it actually happens every single time. You can see that the price of Bitcoin was bouncing in 2018, but the MVRV continued down until the bottom was in.

[00:10:54]And even in 2014, you can see the price of Bitcoin had a monster high, but this ended up making a lower high, but you can actually see compared to this one, but you can actually see that on the second bounce we didn't go up on the bottom here in the green and that was bearish. So, the fact that this is not going up with Bitcoin is definitely alarming. I can't say that it has to play out, maybe it changes, but as currently constructed it is telling us that this rally is fake and I have to assume once the summer passes Bitcoin failing to break higher will actually be the reversal point where we do actually see the final move down.

[00:11:38]Probably into the low 40s, maybe mid 40s is what I'm looking for.

[00:11:42]So, we can remain optimistic.

[00:11:46]I think the market stalling here will pretty much reveal that we are in a bear market still. We're seeing Ethereum struggle big time.

[00:11:54]And the higher the S&P goes and the more Bitcoin struggles, this is actually my S&P prediction. I know it's very bold, but I actually think that once the summer comes and goes, Bitcoin will reverse and and that should be it. So, we'll continue to remain optimistic heading into the summer.

[00:12:14]Summer's about a month and a half away, June, July.

[00:12:17]I I imagine coming out of July, we should begin our move down, assuming we don't break the high, right? Maybe it's a super cycle. I'm not pushing that narrative, but I'm giving the bulls the benefit of the doubt until otherwise.

[00:12:29]So, we'll leave it there. As always, stay safe.

[00:12:33]None of this is financial advice.