இந்தியாவின் பொருளாதார வளர்ச்சி பூஜ்ஜியமா? | Dr. K. PRABAKARAN, ECONOMIST | Aadhan Tamil

追加: 2026-05-27

[00:00:00]Aha no compromise on your side and our side it's GT Paravas GT Holidays South India's number [Music] One travel brand Aji Masala The secret to enjoying any cuisine 20 S [Music] Home Schools Hotels Storeroom Everywhere Partition Walls are being built Now First Choice Ranagan Rabbit Wall Panels with Building Bonus Will this war continue?

[00:00:29]This will continue until the per-barrel rate reaches 150 to 175. It will go up to 150. According to my estimate, it will go up to 150. The reason we have this petroleum problem is that we do n't have reserves. The Indian economy has grown to almost zero.

[00:01:02]Looking at everything you say, is there a chance of an economic depression?

[00:01:06]The chances are high. If this war comes and ends in two days, then it will take that long for our economy to return to its previous state.

[00:01:17]Minimum six months. It will take two to three years for our economy to return to its previous state.

[00:01:25]Hello Athan business people.

[00:01:27]Today, our fellow economist Professor Dr. K. Prabhakar has just joined. Let's talk. Hello, sir. Hello.

[00:01:35]How are you, sir?

[00:01:36]Have a good day.

[00:01:37]Sir, no one expected a US-Iran war to happen on this day. Almost three months have passed and now the war is still going on. This is why the Indian economy is very poor.

[00:01:46]Before this, there was only the Indian Economy Week. It's been a week since Cho came and gone. Many people are even saying that if this war continues, the Indian economy could return to the situation it was in 10 years ago. What is your view, sir?

[00:01:59]This is a very important cost. Will this war continue? It will continue.

[00:02:10]This will continue until the per barrel rate reaches 150 to 175. It's high time for both Iran and America to find a perfect solution.

[00:02:21]Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin went to China.

[00:02:27]President Los is gone. Future systems will only come about by building on the tax base of these two people. Even if the war stops tomorrow, the price of petrol will stay the same for the next three months. You asked a very important question.

[00:02:49]My doctor, Subhash Kar, the former Finance Secretary of the Government of India, said that India is slowing down.

[00:02:59]He has done some research. I have also done some research on his research. The Indian economy has grown to almost zero. This may be a bit shocking, but it is the truth.

[00:03:14]How do we calculate our economy? We calculate it in nominal prices.

[00:03:18]Nominal prices are now GDP, our total goods and services.

[00:03:25]Now I go to all the markets and tell them what prices and what products are available, and we do this, compare that, and figure out how much consumption is happening, and we do our calculations. We come here and say that nominal prices are like that. But then there's inflation. No, since there is this inflation, what can we do? Let's come and reduce that inflation amount. If we reduce that, we will see real GDP growth.

[00:03:59]That's the growth rate last year. Just think, a kilo of rice cost 100 rupees. This year, the same kilo of rice cost ₹110, but inflation has increased the price by ₹10. But if they gave us the same thing for ₹100 and now give us ₹50, it means we're angry. It can be understood simply like this. Now, how much nominal growth is there in our India? If we look at it since 2012, as of today, the nominal growth is approximately 9%. Now, are we comparing this 9% globally? When we compare, how much has the dollar value decreased? The dollar value has decreased by 10% in the rupee value.

[00:04:51]Then our growth was 9%, so if the dollar value decreased by 10%, it is almost growing by zero.

[00:05:03]This is a good economic outlook, but if we look at our growth in reality, it is only 4%, now it is going to be 6%, it is going to become 4%, it is going to decrease by half. This inflation is coming, so as the Prime Minister said, mass poverty will come. The tax is coming. It has been so long and now it has increased, it has come to 5.25, 25 and has decreased. So, if it has increased and changed like this, what is the situation of the people? Sir, the already low norms are all the same, now that all the interest rates have come down, everyone has started buying more. So if the interest rates go up again, what kind of impact will this have on them? Sir, how much impact will it have? 50 basis points, or 50 to 100 basis points, there is a chance of a 1% to 1.5% increase. Those who have been neutral so far, when this sudden inflation comes, this heavy inflation comes, according to my research, there is a chance of a 1.5 to 150 basis points increase in the Deferred Monetary Policy. It will go up to 7 gradually from 5.5, starting with one point. What they are saying now is that in the last meeting, they said that they will gradually increase the rate from now on. Instead of holding regular meetings, they said that they will increase it gradually. If the government decides to increase it in the first or second week of June, then the EMI of the people will increase. All prices will increase. As you said, the prices of all goods have already gone up due to this LPG demand.

[00:06:57]People don't have any money in their hands right now.

[00:06:59]Now, as you said, if interest rates were to become too high, there would be a situation where there would be no money at all, sir.

[00:07:03]This is the question you are asking, SR. S But if you ask what the reason is for this, our Innovator hasn't done anything for the past 15 years. Let's see if that's a reason. You ask the question. When I respond to it, I answer it.

[00:07:23]As you mentioned, petrol prices have been going up ever since. Previously, when petrol prices were high in all countries, they came to our country to reduce them, and when all countries started buying from Russia, the price of petrol always went down. Then we won't have to make any changes to the price of petrol. But now, with crude oil prices nearing $120 per barrel, gasoline prices have skyrocketed.

[00:07:43]They have now fixed the price of petrol at 104. So, the price of petrol is going to be so high. Because if the price of gasoline goes up, the price of everything else will go up.

[00:07:55]We are already hearing that there is a big demand protest and many parties are coming and saying, "Take back your rights." So, will the price of petrol still go up or is there a chance it will go down? It is not correct to say that the rise in petrol prices is the only reason for this situation.

[00:08:06]But this is a word for crude oil. For so long, when there is a war, the price of crude oil has been rising.

[00:08:12]But now, today, the worst currency performer in the world is the rupee. If you look at all 40 trading partners, when you compare all their currencies, it is very stable. The reason for this is that there is no demand for the rupee. It's just supply and demand. The reason the dollar is getting more expensive is because the demand for the dollar is very high. That's why it was very high priced. The reason we have this petroleum problem is because we do n't have a treaty, so when war comes to Russia, we should have our immediate strategic resources ready. [First] But we only have 60 days of strategic resources. Those 60 days are not about whether the respective factories are there or not, except that everything is outside, it's a very easy 5 to 6% of our strategic resources that we have come here to.

[00:09:24]So if we had had those resources immediately after the immediate price increase, this problem would not have arisen. They thought of this in 2000 and created it in 2000. But it was not increased.

[00:09:41]That is the first reason. At the same time, America, which is 100% self-sufficient in gasoline, does not import it from anyone. They have made strategic resources themselves.

[00:10:01]If you see 18 Times of India's strategic resources in America, you might ask why the price rise is happening there even though it is like that in America.

[00:10:24]They base this signal on the US, saying, "Why are prices rising?" They come and think about the reasons for the price rise. People come and say, "This is why prices are rising, so you should vote here." Similarly, there is a stock in China that is 242 days old. So, no matter what oil shock comes, you will have to finish your 242- day stock first and then get a new stock. If you look at it now, this problem has arisen because of the failure to create national strategic resources in India.

[00:10:49]As you said, the value of foreign currency has come down and is now decreasing. Even though our rupee has appreciated a lot, it is now close to 94 dollars. So what is the chance of the rupee falling again sir? Has it reached 96? Has it reached 96? Has it reached 50? Will it go up to 150 rupees? According to my prediction, it will not go up to 150 rupees. If it is like this, the economy will go back a lot now.

[00:11:14]Sir, they say that in 10 years, looking at the current situation, they say that the economy will still be like it was a year ago.

[00:11:22]Looking at all the situations you are talking about, will it get worse or even worse? Because now, Nirmala Sitharaman Madam, our Finance Minister, has said that when the dollar falls and the rupee falls, it is good for us because our exports will increase.

[00:11:44]I will give you an example.

[00:11:48]This example is India and Vietnam.

[00:11:56]From 2010 to 2026, India and Vietnam Our rupee has depreciated by almost 80%, if it has decreased now, our exports should have increased. Actually, even after the 80% decrease, what was the percentage of our exports then? It was 25%, now it is 21%. So, when the rupee goes down, our exports also go down.

[00:12:33]This is a paradox in the world. This is an economic paradox.

[00:12:39]In Vietnam, prices have fallen three times, but they have increased by 283%. How is this the same fall? The same thing happened in Vietnam. But when this downturn happens, do we export our products back? The imported components in our exported products come at 33%, so if we export one rupee of ours, we import 33% of it. We can't do it.

[00:13:14]Similarly, we don't have a deep supply chain. When a Chinese professor comes to India and gives a lecture, saying China Plus 1, he makes a comparison with when he gives a lecture in Vietnam. When comparing, people in Vietnam wrote down everything negative about us and said that we were creating something to match it. At the same time, when he himself came to India and spoke, he continued, "This is not true. We are correct.

[00:13:49]We are correct. We are correct. We have said everything you say is wrong. We will say the same thing now.

[00:13:56]Best of all, the media owner, what did he say? When someone tells us we are wrong, it empowers us to do it right. The CEO of Nvidia, the world's largest economy, woke up from $185 to $192 in the morning and said, " All Americans are watching." Nvidia's share price is going up. Its CEO says, "If anyone tells you it is a mistake, you should immediately start working on it." The Chinese professor said that this is happening because we don't have that one attitude.

[00:14:41]Based on what you're saying, is there a chance of an economic depression, sir?

[00:14:45]The chances are high. If depression continues for two quarters and negative growth occurs, there is a chance of depression. It will already be in stock now. Stockpiling is increasing our inflation. But anger never comes. The reason this growth is not happening is because we lack innovation. Hey, our total is not in our picture, in the world. Everything in the world is now taking money from us and putting it where they want it.

[00:15:21]They invest in companies based in America.

[00:15:24]They are investing in companies in China. It's not in this picture of us. The European Union itself is not much of a picture. Then you can see how low our India is.

[00:15:39]They are taking 95% of the market.

[00:15:41]What kind of a difference does it make for us who are still in the war? Using AVR, becoming a consumer of VR, and not a carrier. It's been three months since this war began. No one knows when this war will end. In case this war comes and ends in two days, how long will it take for our economy to return to its previous state?

[00:16:02]Minimum six months. It will take a long time, two or three years, for our economy to return to its previous state. If prices were to be reduced tomorrow, if there were no more war tomorrow, then it would take at least six months to do all these repairs immediately. Their production is all about increasing profits.

[00:16:23]So, only after the six months are over, and all these prices have risen, when we come from the Gulf of Hormones, there is another strait beyond the Gulf of Hormones.

[00:16:34]We get a lot of fertilizers and other products from it.

[00:16:39]That's also difficult for Vardu. Now, 20% of the world's supply of hormones comes from this place. But in India, 60% of them come from the Gulf of Hormones. That's why we have a big problem.

[00:16:55]The price of petrol has now gone up to Rs 150.

[00:16:57]So, will they reduce the price of petrol after the crude oil price decreases or will they maintain it as it is? Sir, even when the price of petrol in our India decreases, we should reduce our petrol price. They come to America and tell us the pump price, but they don't tell us the pump price, they tell us the pump price around the world. Whenever everything goes down, everything goes down.

[00:17:17]Whenever everything goes up, everything goes up. That's why the Indian government has made a profit of approximately 80 lakh crore rupees from these oil marketing companies.

[00:17:32]Then come and do the price production. If we don't reduce it now, we're going to lose money. If we don't increase prices, the question of how much people will accept this point is a big question.

[00:17:51]Now that all these problems are gone, the CM has come and made many promises. He had come for the elections and said that he would give six cylinders a year.

[00:17:59]They have said that they will come and give gold to the newborn child. So, to what extent is this possible in the current situation? It is not possible at all.

[00:18:05]Come on, there are 1.3 crore families in our Tamil Nadu. Even though there are 7 crore people, there are 1.3 families. I don't know if the price of a 6-cylinder six-cylinder will remain the same. Let's say we have a 6000-horsepower family, let's calculate 6000 per family.

[00:18:32]How much is 6000 E1 carats? Almost 60,000 crores are coming. Similarly, if he gives that ring, isn't it a wedding gift? He would have said that he would give a wedding gift, a gold ring, and a silk saree. A sovereign gold is approximately 15000 rupees, I calculated the number of marriages in Tamil Nadu is approximately 40 lakhs, 40 lakhs of marriages happen to 40 lakh people, when that happens, you have made a multiple for them, you have made all this multiple, in the same way, 4000 rupees are given to unemployed youth, 2500 rupees are given to diploma holders, now 2500 is given to women's rights, people believe all this, when the people say everything, they have given a very confident vote that he will definitely win, so he must have had a plan, he must have made it according to that plan, an economist, what is this people's rights, now there is a name like the artist insurance scheme, he can change it even if he changes it If we increase it from Rs 1000 to Rs 2500, that will be Rs 37,000 crore. So when all this is added up, he has also said that he will waive off the loans of those living below Rs 1000. I do n't know how much RBI will accept it. Similarly, when the government comes, the central government comes and says don't buy gold, and now the government, the state government, says that they are going to give it to everyone for free. We have no idea how much they will accept it. But we congratulate him. If he comes and runs all this, it will be good. I have heard him say that there will be a motorcycle for every household. I don't know how much all this will be possible.

[00:20:41]Now, the stock market has been sideways for the last year. So AI has been going out and out. But on the other hand, it is domestic investors who have come in and are holding the market in place. That's why the market has been on the sidelines until now. But how long can a domestic investor wait to receive money and say no?

[00:20:58]When will they leave the market?

[00:21:00]What is the situation with the stock market, sir?

[00:21:02]This will be a reflection of the stock market situation. The stock market situation will definitely be volatile. Now they've come and artificially boosted it. How long will this LIC continue to buy and sell everything?

[00:21:20]Likewise, profitability will also be compromised. Now, if we take all six of these pieces of advice, we will be met with a crushing blow. This growth will be hit by 2% of GDP growth. Then our growth will reach 4%. Similarly, Subhash Kar said that the dollar rate will be zero, Subhash Kar's research has told everyone in the world that there will be zero growth. When you come here, an economy without growth, an economy without employment, it is very difficult.

[00:22:02]Sir, you have told a lot about war. Thank you very much.

[00:22:06]Greetings.