The video explains that crypto markets like MSTR and Bitcoin are driven by irrational market forces (Mr. Market) rather than fundamentals, as evidenced by the $2,000 drop in 15 minutes despite positive PCE data, and that regulatory developments like CFTC classification as foreign futures can reduce manipulation (e.g., weekend price drops) while marginability increases asset value.
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Deep Dive
MSTR's Epic Rebound Is Already Here.. +7% on "Still No Deal"--Mr. Market More Random than Ever..Added:
Hello everybody. So this video is entitled MSTR epic rebound manic depressive Mr. Market in all of its glory because we have crypto pumping anything related to to crypto is is going up right now because of as reported by the Kobe sea letter retweeting a tweet from the president of the United States talking about reopening the Strait of Hormuz moves and talking about um you know thinking about the situation or thinking about the deal. Apparently they're having some meeting um for the deal. So so so anyways as far as I'm concerned you know it's I I I I think this situation is is is ongoing still. I'm not so sure why the market trades on that but for some reason Bitcoin has decided to trade on literally the Middle East. It trades on the Middle East. Um say what I said oh it trades on macro. I'm not even sure it trades on macro. If you look at PCE PCE yesterday we had great PCE we still dumped. Uh so no it trades literally on the Middle East and maybe market makers maybe you know the the the the the centralized exchanges of the world maybe they've they've they've put their manipulation they've put their liquidations based on that news based on that Hormuz news. So it it this only illustrates the the madness of Mr. Market because yesterday's big drop was entirely unwarranted. It it was ridiculous losing $2,000 in in in a matter of 15 minutes for no reason whatsoever. Um to me this is the the the pain that we've had in Bitcoin for the past one week I would say has been manufactured pain. The pain this is manufactured pain. Nothing has changed in the algorithm. Nothing has changed for Bitcoin.
You know stocks are going up. AI uh the stock is going up. If you try to think about Bitcoin critically, Bitcoin is the scarcest asset. And if AI makes everything abundant, then the scarcest asset should go up in value. This would be logic, right? But this is not how this market works. This This market over the short and and and I'm sad to say over the medium term now, like say a 6-month to 18-month period now has turned into a casino. How many stocks do not react on fundamentals anymore? You really really need to have an extremely long-term horizon. 4 years plus for Bitcoin, but some are starting to say for Bitcoin really we should have a 5-year plus horizon for for Bitcoin because the the the the market can stay irrational for a very very long time. And that is worse than it used to be. That is worse than it used to be. Some of the moves we see in some stocks are nonsensical. Yet again, today we see stocks going up 30% in random AI spaces. The the value of assets don't move 30% in a day. This is the manic-depressive Mr. Market in action that makes them move so much in a day. And in my view, a Bitcoin is not worth $73,000. In my view, a Bitcoin is worth much more than $73,000. And I can tell you a lot of people who own Bitcoin, there is no way they would let it go for 73K. These are the manipulated prices. This is kind of what I fundamentally believe. Um some bullish news uh that Michael Saylor tweeted I think is also worth a quick discussion here. Talking about the CFTC guidance. Now, this was widely expected, right? It's not not not not new news. Um but I don't think I've ever discussed it on the channel. So So if Bitcoin is classified as a foreign future, um that means that we we could have some regulation over the weekend because we could get 24/7 trading. And so, if you have if we have regulation over weekend trading, that means that we would have no more weekend manipulation. Now, to be fair, it's been a few months where we haven't had weekend manipulation. You may remember, um, you know, a year ago every Sunday night, without fail, Sunday night, you know, 7:00 p.m. US time, roughly, without fail, Bitcoin would drop 1,500. That has stopped a few months ago. And so, so I think I think this is setting this in stone that the weekend manipulation may be gone. Now, we we still we still have the daily manipulation, the liquidation trigger type manipulation. We still have that going on. That's going to be the Clarity Act. But, it's a good thing if we remove bad actors from manipulating the price on the weekend. So, this is this is a pretty big deal. And even bigger deal, of course, is Bitcoin, um, could be used as collateral for a margin loan. Now, of course, the ETFs are already there, right? Um, you know, strategy is there, right? You can use strategy as a margin loan. So, there's ways around it. But, but for for for people who who own raw crypto, pure crypto, this is actually pretty bullish if you can borrow against your raw Bitcoin, um, in in in against your real Bitcoin. If you can borrow against it within a trapped fiber broker, that's a big deal. That's very bullish. Why? And and and I'll say it like that.
A house on which you can put a mortgage is much more valuable than a house on which you can't put a mortgage, right?
If you have if you have a house that's half burnt down, it's going to be selling for a fire sale because a a a a a mortgage company cannot give you a loan on it because it's half burnt down.
So, you got to fix it up first, right?
And so, and so so an asset against which you can borrow money is much more valuable than an asset against which you cannot borrow money. And so, this is also very bullish for for for for Bitcoin. Although, like I said, there's there's some loopholes around it. But but the idea that you need to be able to borrow against your Bitcoin is an important idea in TradFi, and that will grow the demand for Bitcoin. An an asset that is marginable is more valuable than an asset when an asset that is not marginable. I'll conclude with Stretch.
Stretch, we're still in the value of this pair for Stretch, trading at 99.
We're reclaiming 99, that's pretty good.
Theta still on fire. Theta's ex-dividend date, if I'm not mistaken, is upcoming.
Clearly, in my view, I still maintain that there there there's somewhat of a different dynamic. I think a lot of people use STRC to collect that ex-dividend.
And so, that ex- that explains the lack of euphoria most of the month. And the 3 days before the ex- before the ex-dividend, we have insane euphoria, absolutely insane euphoria. I think that's kind of a dynamic that we see for for Stretch. We'll see if that dynamic remains when we go to to bi-monthly. But I've stopped worrying, and I've stopped wanting to I've stopped wanting to see Stretch re-peg to 100 right away. I've kind of stopped that, but because they are able to raise so so much, like a billion dollars much, on the one day right before the ex-dividend. So, right? So, so so do we really need to have it spread evenly across the month?
You know, you know, it would make sense. It would be logical. It would be better. But from a math standpoint, we have so much demand the days before we go ex-dividend that from a math standpoint, it ends up being kind of the same. I think a lot of arbitrageurs are going after Stretch, perhaps not in the way they're going after Theta. Definitely not in the way they're going after Theta when Theta goes to daily dividend. Definitely not.
But Stretch might still be there for them. So, anyways, this is this is roughly my my commentary here.
Pretty pretty big day today, so so a shorter our Anyways, this was not investment advice, this is not financial advice, this is only entertainment. I'm hoping you were entertained. Please like, please subscribe, follow me on Patreon, follow me on X. Thank you for watching, and have a wonderful, wonderful day.
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