Everyone Is Comparing Bitcoin To 2021… They’re Missing This

[00:00:01]Everyone's looking at price. We're looking at a number nobody really watches. Every major Bitcoin bottom has happened when roughly 10 million Bitcoin were sitting at an unrealized loss. 10 million Bitcoin were sitting at an unrealized loss. We're not there yet. That means one or two things is about to happen.

[00:00:28]Either Bitcoin is about to make history or that one final flush is still coming.

[00:00:35]Today, I'm going to show you why we are actually stalking a short near 67 and wow, uh Merlin called a short on BTCC, the broker of our choice. Low fees, fast execution, offering a 10% bonus for first-time deposit. Definitely check this out, folks. Low fees, fast execution, everything you could want in a broker. All right, let's get over to the platform itself where I'll show you Merlin's small trade on Bitcoin, but really there were people that were clamoring for something, some action to happen and he took it. And right now it's sitting in a nice little profit. Of course, it's a tiny trade, but hey, we were actually front-running the $67,000 level. And don't forget, link in our description, you can get yourself a nice little account at BTCC with a 10% bonus. Link will be in the description so you can claim it. All right, welcome back crypto crew. It is your boy Tom here doing what? Bringing you the hottest in Bitcoin and crypto action. If you like what you see, make sure you give us a like. It helps with the algorithm. And make sure you just hit subscribe if you have not already. And make sure you come on over to X and follow us on X where we talk about Bitcoin, crypto all day, every day.

[00:01:56]Because of Crypto Maniax. And the information we give you is like an adrenaline shot with steroids. And you always leave with a triple shot frothy cappuccino. All right, let's get into the charts.

[00:02:09]When we're looking at Coin Glass right here, this is one of my favorite on-chain indicators because it measures investor pain.

[00:02:17]Bitcoin supply in loss tracks the amount of Bitcoin that has moved at a price higher than today's market price. In other words, it shows how many coins are underwater.

[00:02:30]History shows something really fascinating.

[00:02:33]Every major Bitcoin bear market eventually re- reaches a point where roughly 10 million Bitcoin are sitting in the red. It's not magic, it's psychology. That's when fear becomes widespread, and that's exactly what we're looking for.

[00:02:50]You know, we're going to say weak hands have largely sold, long-term buyers quietly begin accumulating at that level. Now, we're getting closer to that level, but and we're not, you know, there yet. That's why I still believe we got one final sweep lower, uh which remains a possibility where we can get down to the 55,000 before the next major bull market begins. But remember, markets don't usually bottom when everyone's comfortable.

[00:03:16]They bottom when traders simply can't take the pain anymore. Now, our uh trade plan is uh playing out pretty well. Come back over to show you where we're looking to sell Bitcoin at 67,000. As I just showed you, Merlin has a short a small short on right now that's sitting slightly in the money.

[00:03:34]It's not like huge in the money, but then again, it is a small trade. So, let me take you over to our main main trade and what we're actually looking to do.

[00:03:43]Here's the market where it sits right now. It's actually going to look like it's going to test external liquidity, but we are looking to short Bitcoin in the $67,000 area. That hasn't changed.

[00:03:56]The flush lower so far has not materialized. Instead, Bitcoin reclaimed the 65 hive and it's holding above it.

[00:04:03]That's constructive for short-term trend as far as upward pressure to push Bitcoin up into the 67-68,000 area. As long as bulls defend the level of 65.5, that's the room that price has to push towards the 67.5 fair value gap up above. Okay, that's exactly where we're looking for exhaustion to occur.

[00:04:29]Now, could Bitcoin break higher?

[00:04:30]Absolutely. That's why we never marry a basis. We just date them, you know? You just you never marry a position, you just date it. Will that price confirm it? But until proven otherwise, this looks like a rally into resistance rather than be the beginning of the next major impulse higher. Now, history is still like lining up. Here's where everyone keeps ignoring. Let me let me actually take you over to this chart.

[00:04:56]Now, I hear I think that this is what everyone keeps just ignoring. Many people already started calling that this is the bottom.

[00:05:05]But history says we haven't experienced the same level of pain as previous cycles.

[00:05:10]In 2021, if we look at this section of the chart right here in 2021, Bitcoin corrected nearly 67% before completing its bear market.

[00:05:21]Today, we're nowhere near that level yet. Now, the market structure looks very similar.

[00:05:28]The difference is the magnitude of the decline. That's why I keep continuing watching two key levels.

[00:05:36]If Bitcoin can reclaim and hold above 68,000, the bullish case becomes actually much stronger. If we fail up in in area, hence that's why I'm short >> [snorts] >> at 67,000.

[00:05:49]If we fail there, history suggests another leg lower remains very much on the table.

[00:05:55]Now, remember, markets love to convince people the correction is over just before delivering the the final uppercut that just takes everybody out. Now, I'm going to get into um the 4-hour chart, but before I do, I got one more chart to show you. I kind of lost my spot here. This actually explains this scenario a little bit better. Like, we have liquidity up here.

[00:06:18]We had the sweep up above. Right now, we're sitting really very, very close to the fair value gap. This is the area that we want to sell Bitcoin itself.

[00:06:29]Now, if bulls defend the 65 five right now in the short term, I'm going to get into that on the 4-hour chart, then we have the scenario where we can go up into the fair value gap.

[00:06:41]The only way that we're going to say that, "Okay, something has changed." is if we can get close above the $68,000 level. That's when, like I was just saying, the bullish uh case becomes much stronger. Now, we're still looking for it to fail there.

[00:06:57]And we're actually looking for it to come back down into the order block in here potentially even go lower towards the 50 5,000 58,000 dollar area. That would be a wonderful scenario, because as you know, we already have a lot of dollar cost averaging levels. Uh where's my dollar cost averaging chart? Do I Did I Did I kill it? I think I did kill it.

[00:07:20]All right, yeah. Well, you know that we have dollar cost averaging that is sitting at uh the 55,000 58,000 60,000 area all the way down to 50,000 itself. All right, let's get into the 4-hour chart. Let's talk about what's going on in Bitcoin in the 4-hour.

[00:07:37]Uh let's move over to that chart right here, and we can actually map out what's happening right now in Bitcoin.

[00:07:44]>> [snorts] >> All right, so here we go.

[00:07:46]65 is the level that Frank's got. I really got 64,000. Okay, so he's a little bit higher. Um I'm thinking that we could retrace back down to 64,000.

[00:07:58]That's the level that eats to go.

[00:08:00]And of course the 68,000 is the the level that we're both talking about a break above and that could actually rally Bitcoin up to like 74,000.

[00:08:11]Uh Well, 71,000 first and then 74,000 on the extreme, but I was short would be executed and we would be stopped out.

[00:08:21]Now, make sure you get into our free pro group because we will guide you through um this step-by-step. All right, so >> [snorts] >> uh as it stands right now, Bitcoin itself needs to hold the 65 five. If it doesn't, we look like we're breaking back down to the 64. A break of 64 actually opens up the 62 again. Now, that would be really really nice for Merlin's short that he has on Bitcoin right now. All right, so at what How would I do this? I mean, if I don't have a position in Bitcoin, which I don't right now, how would it if I'm looking to buy it?

[00:08:55]What What am I going to do? Well, I really look uh right here at this order block right there, 63 seven to 64 eight.

[00:09:04]If the marketplace can come back into this and hold the 64,000, that would be your buy signal to get back above this top and launch into the 67 five area. Now, if it breaks this little ledge right here, closes below it, we're probably pushing back down into this area right there, 62 nine. That's where we're sitting right now with Bitcoin on the four-hour chart.

[00:09:32]So, Bitcoin really right now continues printing higher lows and regained little bit of short-term momentum for the bulls.

[00:09:41]Momentum is improving on the short term, but again, we're approaching heavy resistance at the 67,500 area, where previous sellers stepped in.

[00:09:52]It's also where liquidity is beginning to build. So, for me, this is not the place to chase longs. I would wait for the pullback. Just as I said. Now, if buyers blast straight through this zone with strong volume and hold above it, I'll be happy to admit that the market's stronger than expected, but until that happens, I'm staying patient, waiting for the marketplace to come to me. As you know, and you should write it down, you're a professional trader, and you don't predict, you just basically prepare for different scenarios. All right, let's get into the short-term Ethereum, what's happening with Ethereum, the different levels that we put up for you guys, because Ethereum is really telling a similar story.

[00:10:33]These were the levels good old Tom gave you for days, 1950.

[00:10:37]Marketplace banged into it, has not banged into it here, came back down very, very close to the $1,900 support before it actually came back up, and actually rallied back to 1950. I don't think I told you guys about taking a trade. I I know I said that this was support, but I you know, every day seems very similar, so anyway, so the only way that Ethereum shows any type of strength, well, one, you got to keep your eye on Bitcoin, because all eyes are on Bitcoin.

[00:11:06]Bitcoin rallies up into that fair value gap that we're talking about, and then falls, you have a good chance of selling Ethereum probably up at the 1980 level, where it could actually come back down towards the 1900, potentially break the 1900, and come down right into this area right here, like 1850. Now, I'm not predicting price, right? I'm just saying really for me Ethereum itself I would put that on the back burner right now. Now, if you're in Ethereum bull, I'm going I'm going crazy. I'm going to get long Ethereum.

[00:11:44]Well, don't chase it up here, you know, wait for it to actually come back down towards the 1900 level, potentially even 1890.

[00:11:52]That's where you'd want to get long as an Ethereum bull. All right, so what do you got to do? Well, you definitely got to come on over to X.

[00:12:00]Follow us on X where we talk about Bitcoin crypto all day, every day. What else you got to do?

[00:12:05]Well, you got to do your own research.

[00:12:06]As you know, I'm a trader just like you.

[00:12:08]I don't offer any type of financial advice. And what else you got to do?

[00:12:12]Please trade with your head, not over it. You need to protect your capital in order to stay in the game. And what else you got to do? Well, as a short-term trader you got to enjoy the party but dance near the door. Make sure you check out BTCC. Get that 10% bonus. I'll see you tomorrow. Cheers.