Bitcoin: The Calm Before The Storm

[00:00:20]Alrighty, Neil, welcome to the madness.

[00:00:22]How you doing today, buddy?

[00:00:24]>> Good. Excited to get going.

[00:00:26]>> Yeah, likewise. Welcome back, guys. As always, we're going live. My cats are fighting, so you might see some live action. Hopefully not. No, baby. So, I have three cats and they decide obviously to fight when we go live. It is what it is. By the way, I'm going to be in Hong Kong. I booked my plane and hotel. Super excited. So, if you happen to be there, pick me up. I couldn't convince Neil to come this time, but maybe next time you can join me there.

[00:00:52]>> Yeah, it's a little bit of a trek for me to get all the way out there, but maybe next year.

[00:00:57]>> Fair enough. Matt is going to be there, by the way, so we will probably dial in from there for the week of August, which is the last one. So, when we do the live show, we might be doing from there.

[00:01:08]Amazing. So I tweeted this. So this is the price of Bitcoin for every World Cup. So this could be another four-ear cycle. Hey, the World Cup cycle. And you can see that from 2010 all the way to 2026, we have indeed seen some price appreciation. So starting off in South Africa with 0.01, one Bitcoin. That would be a great time to buy. 2014 in Brazil, $580. I think it closed at 580, but it opened at 6 something. So, it should probably be a little bit higher. Then we have Russia 2018, $6,350.

[00:01:42]Qatar, $16,000, $740. And then obviously North America, kind of Canada, Mexico, I used one flag.

[00:01:51]I didn't want to put 20 there, but $63,750.

[00:01:55]That was the price of yesterday, I think. But it depends. It depends on how you measure it. If you measure when they lift the cup, it might be different. But this is another example Neil that like we are saying if you do indeed wait long enough there's nothing to worry about right.

[00:02:13]>> Yeah I mean you know it shows um you know if you just have patience and hodddle on eventually uh you'll be rewarded. Did you watch the World Cup final yesterday?

[00:02:24]>> No I have not seen one single match not even one. Like it's really bad but I'm not a football guy. Uh some people say, "Oh, because Italy was not in there." I don't think so. I mean, I first of all, Italy has not been there for a while, but I'm not a football. I like rugby a lot, but football is just like I don't know. Um let's say into a spectrum where probably rugby rugby is the most manly sport and tennis maybe is the last of the manly. [laughter] I think football is towards the tennis side of it. There's a lot of fake injuries and a lot of drama. they they launched themselves on the floor and I don't know I don't feel it. I don't know if you watch I mean probably yes because they were playing in the US so maybe you watch some of the matches.

[00:03:07]>> I I watched it and congratulations to anyone from Spain or rooting for Spain.

[00:03:13]You won. Congrats.

[00:03:15]>> Same.

[00:03:15]>> Um >> it was it was it was actually the score was one- nothing but Spain really dominated the game. Um, if it wasn't for like some pretty good saves by the Argentinian goalie, it would have been a blowout. But Spain, uh, in the whole World Cup, Spain only gave up one goal the entire World Cup.

[00:03:35]>> Wow.

[00:03:37]>> So, what's that, like seven games, eight games? I don't know. It's crazy.

[00:03:41]>> Yeah.

[00:03:42]>> Some people were rooting on France, some people are rooting on England. England would have been also cool because they haven't won in a long time. I remember Matt last time on the show was saying, "Well, if England wins, we can kind of, [laughter] you know, come up with some sort of a Bitcoin price prediction there." But yeah, I don't know who who won between France and England. Do you know?

[00:04:01]>> Um, they both lost to >> Oh, no. But yeah, but there was like third There was like third and fourth.

[00:04:09]>> Oh, I didn't watch that game. I heard it was I think it was actually I think it was like six to four. It was like a high-scoring game. I forget. But um >> six to four. Wow. Okay. Interesting.

[00:04:20]>> Yeah.

[00:04:21]>> So I guess >> was a high soccer.

[00:04:23]>> Yeah. So I guess >> I guess what England is what third because you have uh Spain, Argentina, and then England and France, I guess.

[00:04:32]>> Yeah. I mean, I didn't even, you know, I'm not a big World Cup person, but um I don't know if I could find it really quick.

[00:04:41]>> Yeah.

[00:04:42]>> My wife is from Spain and now I receive a private credit to buy because Yeah.

[00:04:45]you you were commenting on the [laughter] other videos. Vamos, no, I'm really happy Spain won. Also, Argentina. Oh, England won. Thank you. Yeah, I have not watched the match. Um, >> England England won six to four.

[00:04:58]>> Wow.

[00:04:59]>> Yeah.

[00:05:00]>> Wow. Okay. Interesting.

[00:05:02]>> Yeah.

[00:05:03]>> Literally everybody who I've spoken to, they said France was the favorite to win the cup. So, like I said, I haven't even seen a single game. So, uh, plus, I mean, to be honest with you, the time was so bad for me. It was like 3:00 a.m.

[00:05:17]2:00 a.m., and there's no way I'm going to stay up at 3:00 a.m. to watch a a game. Nah, if it was maybe a normal time, maybe I would have watched some, but for me, it was, which I guess it makes sense because whenever they used whenever they play in Europe, it's the same for you guys, right? You have to wake up in the middle of the night. So, I understand. It's good that we are moving around so that we can experience it all. But uh yeah, I mean [snorts] hopefully you had a you had fun watching some of the games, so that's all that matters.

[00:05:48]>> Yeah, it's not, you know, I I pay attention I pay attention to the US, but uh they're terrible, so I don't know.

[00:05:57]>> Yeah, but yeah, I thought it was interesting highlighting the price when the World Cup happened. That could be another four year cycle, right?

[00:06:04][laughter] So >> yeah, you know, you know what's funny?

[00:06:06]In 2010, Spain [clears throat] won the World Cup then. So when your your cycles started >> Oh, okay.

[00:06:15]>> won that year too. So now they won again.

[00:06:17]>> Interesting.

[00:06:18]>> I don't know what that means, but [clears throat] >> okay. Yeah. I I I don't know how I don't know how many trophy they have, but I think Brazil is probably the largest and then maybe Argentina the second largest and then you might have Italy and then some other European, France probably. Um but it's good. Spain is good. I mean, I'm happy for them. um as good as gone to a different team. I think last last tournament Argentina won, right? So, it would have been >> Yeah, >> would have been tricky for them to win twice, but yeah, still they got second place. So, hey, you know, amazing.

[00:06:54]>> Yeah, >> but I thought it was interesting to highlight the price here because some people are saying sometimes, oh, Bitcoin is not worth it and it's too late. Well, you know, it depends on your time.

[00:07:04]Again, if you zoom out, I believe it's always worth it. By the way, we we touched on this line I think last week and it is holding up and we might be able to do that kind of inverse head and shoulder after all. So, I guess we have to see if this is going to play up. By the way, I'm not a trader, neither Neil.

[00:07:21]So, don't don't flag me in the comments if I show some pattern. They could have some probability to come up or not. But either way, I think this is an interesting line. And by the way, this is a weekly time frame. So, super long.

[00:07:34]And you can see that we started forming the line in November 2022 and we touched it multiple times on a weekly. So the fact that we literally bounce off here, I think it's really positive. Now I don't know what's going to happen. Some people are expecting lower numbers, but we could simply just retest the line before we start quote unquote a new cycle. This is definitely possible, but I don't think I mean I'm sure you come across some of the comments too, but some people are calling $25,000 $20,000 Bitcoin. I think those are Yeah, man.

[00:08:07]Those >> you know that we have a CM gap at $9,000 and some people are calling that. And I mean it doesn't make sense for multiple reasons, but if you if you imagine that we could go down to 25, let's say 25, right? Many people are calling 25, that would be like a 80% correction. There's no way >> from the top.

[00:08:28]>> Oh, okay.

[00:08:29]>> So, there is no way we're going to create 80%. I mean, I'm sorry, but you know, if we would have gone to maybe a quarter of a million, okay, perhaps if the top would have been I have to go higher. Let's say let's say the top was 250. Okay, from 250 or 270 260, a 80% correction would be well where we are now more or less. So that would be okay for me to say okay well if we go up that much we can indeed correct higher but considering we've gone up only eight folds from 16,000 which was the bottom in this cycle I don't believe I mean can we go a little bit lower? Sure we could go to 48 maybe.

[00:09:15]Maybe which 48 has the gravity of the ETF when they were launched maybe a little bit scare people off a little bit down the 50s perhaps which from where we are now would be what let's say we go to 48 that would be a 15% correction okay I can I could give it I could give it that it's not crazy even though it would break my line but >> yeah I mean could we go down more sure but you know Bitcoin has held up very well at this like 60,000ish range. Um, you know, Bitcoin is looked at as as a Bitcoin is looked at as a legitimate asset now u by many institutions, governments. I just don't think we're going to have, you know, those 80% draw downs anymore.

[00:10:08]Again, anything could happen. you could have a flash crash um where it falls down and bounces back or some you know world event happens that causes um a sell off but I just think we're looking at something different now but in the end you know buy Bitcoin you hold it in self- custody whether the price is up or down you have the same amount of Bitcoin sitting in self-custody if you don't you know play games with it >> exactly plus I mean I would I would argue I don't know if you agree but let's say we are going to ping pong between the 50 that we've done uh by the way to just put it in perspective I can draw a line here and show where uh let's say let's say November because some people are saying October let's say November so this is November I don't know if you can see the line but there is a little bit of there's not much left okay so if the market is going to ping pong all the way until the end of the year it's probably going to take money from bulls and bears both because bulls are saying oh the bottom is in we're going higher so they're probably going long and if you are a four-year cycle or a cyclist as I call them, then you expect October to be showing up the bottom. So, you're like, "Oh, no, no, I'm going to wait because we're going lower." So, if if nothing happens, if we just keep bouncing between 64, 58, 64, and then we just take off maybe even January next year, well, then the market is going to take money from both bulls and bears, which sounds about right. I [laughter] mean, if you if you were ask me, I would say, well, the market is going to punish. Also, look at this. I think something similar might happen here until we just go up. So, I wouldn't necessarily gamble anything. I wouldn't wait. I wouldn't gamble. I wouldn't just like we're saying, DCA is probably your best friend. Who cares? If we go a little bit lower, at least you have exposure. But again, many of my comments are saying, "No, I'm going to wait until, you know, Bitcoin is going to 51." It's like, bro, it's like 65. Who cares? just buy some, you know, because otherwise >> I mean not even mentioning and I'm sure you agree with me now if you are someone who's waiting 48 when the price if the price is going to get to 48 you will lo you will wait lower oh now it's going to 30 so >> it's just buy man honestly just no financial advice but DCA still your prefer option I think but yeah price >> yeah you should be buying it because it's you know the most superior money that humanity has ever seen. And just uh once you come to that conclusion, you don't, you know, you get past the short-term fluctuations, you don't try to time it. Um yeah, I mean, Bitcoin is a inc remarkable beast and you don't know what it's going to do at any time.

[00:12:55]Uh where are we at right now? Like 65,000.

[00:12:59]Um, yeah. I mean, you know, I tell people not to trade, they do it anyways.

[00:13:05]They get wrecked.

[00:13:06]>> I know.

[00:13:06]>> So, we'll see.

[00:13:07]>> I know. Plus, like you said, you know, it's like we had a I mean, now as we speak, we are more or less into the 50% correction. I mean, it's a great again, no financial advice, but if you were waiting, okay, maybe there is an argument. Um, you waited, you didn't want to buy the the 100,000. Okay, I get it. Even though we don't know how Bitcoin is going to behave, but let's say there was a chance anything over 100,000 there was a chance where we could have gone lower. I I can give you that. Okay. So now we have a 50% correction. I mean what do you want more? Isn't that greed? Like gez like you have a 50% correction. I don't know.

[00:13:41]I don't know what you're waiting for, but um anyway, none of this is financial advice. I would not wait anything. Joe had a good chart here. It says um this is the bare market floor power low.

[00:13:52]Interesting enough, on Wednesday, I'm recording with basically everyone into the power law system. So, Giovanni, Matthew, Plansy, Smith is going to be a power law gang recording. And as we were saying, look at the bottom goes up every time. I mean, we can all agree that we don't know where the next bottom is going to be, but this this could be a projection. Um, again, nobody knows.

[00:14:16]It's just an interesting mathematical equation here. And over time, it's clear we're going up. So it could very much be that the next bottom could be where we are now more or less. So you know if you if you have a long time frame again 50% correction you should um 100% embrace. Now what would be interesting to figure it out is so what if the bottom is not going to show up when the fouryear cyclists are expecting it to be. So that would be interesting because then everyone is going to admit that something has shifted unless something happens here in October like a maybe like a quick flash down before we go up.

[00:14:57]I don't know. But super exciting. We don't have much time left to figure it out if you know that that is going to come or not. [laughter] >> Yeah, we'll see what happens.

[00:15:07]>> Exactly. Another interesting one here, James, shout out to James. She said, "Imagine missing a 500% move because it might go a little bit lower." That's what we are saying, right? So, we do not know where this thing is going to go.

[00:15:20]>> And there's people there's people still waiting for a thousand. You know that they were told in 20 I guess 2020 2019 it was going to go down to a,000. Well, you know, you could have bought it at 4,000. Would you really have cared at this point? You know, >> exactly. And and by the way, if you are someone who thinks that the cycles are going to play out, by the way, I've built a a calculator here, which I'll show you uh for your cycles. If you are someone who believes that the cycles are going to manifest, what you can do, you can leave some money on side and then say, okay, well, I'm buying anyway and in October, I'll have some some cash to to throw on top if we go lower. But I wouldn't stop buying or I wouldn't start buying just because of we could go lower cuz we don't know like we don't know.

[00:16:07]It's always easy in retrospective to say oh yeah Bitcoin is going to respect the 4ear cycle. I mean we can only say that after the cycles have happened. So I wouldn't necessarily wait anything. I would keep some maybe maybe powder on the side and if we go lower well then maybe have some buy orders at 48 or 52 or whatever. But most people are going to be left at the station waiting for the train like you said. Yeah. You remember the meme? I mean, even Tom Vay, shout out to Tone. He was saying a thousand a thousand. You know, there's even a song what the Bitcoin the song [laughter] >> Bitcoin please go to the moon.

[00:16:42]>> Exactly. So, you never know. You never know. And even on the previous cycle, many many many influencers called $10,000. We we've never seen $10,000.

[00:16:52]Matter of fact, we stopped way before because my line depending on the exchange of course, but the one I have here is signaling what? 15,000. So imagine if you were someone waiting for a 10,000. It never happened. So I'm not saying we can't go any lower. We could go down a little bit more, but again, don't marry a price because we don't know. We don't know what's going to happen. So we'll see.

[00:17:15]>> Strategy just made an announcement.

[00:17:19]>> Let me go on sailor. I already opened there actually. Yeah, he tweeted what's next. So what did what did he do today?

[00:17:25]Let's see.

[00:17:25]>> Strategy has increased its USD reserve by 225 million. As of July 19th, we huddle 843,000 Bitcoin in our reserve and 3.2 billion in our USD reserve.

[00:17:41]>> Okay. Interesting. Yeah. [snorts] Interesting. I guess he he's trying to juggle between the stretch dividends, the MSTR stock price, and the Bitcoin reserve, right? I I I mean, I think their goal is to try to get STRC back up to $100. And the more cash you have um to pay the dividends, the more duration, the longer the duration, you know, the more comfortable people will be that it's going to continue to pay the dividend. So, I guess that's their focus right now before before um they start buying more Bitcoin. But I guess to to do this, they must have issued new shares. Um, I don't see anything. I'm looking at the filing right now.

[00:18:33]>> Oh, nice. I'm checking the prices.

[00:18:36]>> Mr. >> I don't know.

[00:18:38]>> I don't really see anything.

[00:18:41]>> Yeah, they didn't sell any Bitcoin, I don't think. Um, wait, hold on.

[00:18:46]>> It's only like a >> Well, MSDR MSTR is almost at $100 anyway. So, 95. It's trading at 95.

[00:18:56]>> We have Matt. Just gonna I'm just going to buy the exact bottom and sell the exact top. [laughter] Why doesn't everyone do this? Exactly, Matt. So simple, right?

[00:19:07]>> It looks like they sold 2.7 million shares of Micro Strategy.

[00:19:13]So yeah, they diluted the MSTR shareholders again. So >> Okay, >> there you go.

[00:19:21]>> Yeah, fair enough. I'm checking, by the way, the uh the price of MSTR as we speak. It's kind of clo It's close to $100 closed. It's really close.

[00:19:32]>> Well, in pre-market it's up. Um, so >> what was was the top like $500? Uh, >> yeah, I think so.

[00:19:42]>> Something around that region, right?

[00:19:44]>> Yeah, 541. Okay. I mean, it makes sense.

[00:19:48]I mean, Bitcoin is down 50%, MSTR should be down more. 82. Fair enough. It's a leverage, right? So, it makes sense.

[00:19:56]Yeah.

[00:19:56]>> Okay. Interesting. Interesting to see. I mean, I was expecting something from Sailor because he he tweeted something.

[00:20:02]What's next? So, I was expecting him to also positive to note uh before we go into my into my war, the battle for Bitcoin that I I was showing you earlier, which I'm losing myself into it. Interesting to show the ETF has been positive. So, you can see, let me zoom in. So, we had a couple of positive days. So, you had July 14, we had an interesting one. of even before. So kind of early July we've seen 221 million 265 million on the 6 then kind of neutral I mean 21 million is not much 100 million is not much these kind of cancelled themselves and then there's there was a big sell on the 13th of July with 424 million and ever since it's been positive 180 179 132 so I'm expecting uh the data tomorrow you have a you have a 24 window 24-hour window so the price of today. We'll see it tomorrow. But I'm expecting on Tuesday to see a positive ETF again inflow coming in and then going on the return. We discussed it last time not that it means much but on average July is actually a good month.

[00:21:08]So we are up 10% so far which is interesting. So I wonder how are we going to close the month but the average is seven and the median is eight. So we are literally bang on. Uh August is a different story. So August is a kind of a bad month. I wonder if those >> So we're d we're due to be green now.

[00:21:30]We're due.

[00:21:31]>> Yeah. 100%. I mean, yeah, we are we are up 10%. So I don't think we're going to close July red. I think it will be >> Well, I'm saying it in August, you know, now >> we've [laughter] been red so for so long, you know, green should happen, right? That's how it works.

[00:21:44]>> Yeah. I mean, kind of. I mean, yes, it could. I mean, it could very much be. I mean, there are some some of the months people were expecting to show up and they haven't, right? So, it's always like look at 2025. 2025 is probably the most disappointing um sequence ever. So, we had October, November, and December.

[00:22:04]I mean, November, which historically speaking is a fantastic month, not mentioning October is the second best month. I think the first best is April and the second best is October. We close at minus 3%. and then November minus 17.

[00:22:20]In fact, if you remember, we discussed it last time, 2025 was supposed to be a green year, but we close red. So, I think the combination of 2025 and 2026 is going to be on average some sort of a whatever the other bare market are. So, yeah, it would be great to see an a green August. I would be super happy. I guess time will tell. Again, I this is like a coin flip, right? We we don't know a coin toss. We don't know what's going to happen in August. But statistically speaking, July is supposed to be green. There's also another piece of data I can give you statistically speaking, which it doesn't mean much, but it's fun to look at. If you look at the bare year, I put a bare icon there.

[00:23:01]You can see 2026, of course, bare market 2022, 2018, and 2014. Whenever you had May and June negative, there's never been a negative July. So, for example, 2022 you had negative, negative, positive. 2018, negative, negative, positive. And 2014, you had well, kind of a mixed bag. You had a negative July because you had two positive May and June. So, very unlikely July is going to close red. And it would be great if August could be also green. I mean, I wouldn't be sad about it. So, that'll be definitely an interesting one to check.

[00:23:39]Um, also something else I wanted to show you. I've been building I added a lot of onchain data here and some of the some of the some of those are kind of a mixed bag. For example, you can see the minor pressure here. Um I also marked the top and the bottom. You can see this is when technically the miners are selling. So you can see that we we again this doesn't mean necessarily that it's going to happen but technically we bottom at those numbers 0.5. We had it every single time and now we are slightly over at 0.7. So some people are expecting another deep especially from the miners.

[00:24:17]I also have the exchanges here which those are also interesting fascinating to see how they have started grinding up. Those are basically the number of Bitcoin held on exchanges. Another interesting one. And then the oil accumulation. This is something we touched on briefly last time. I think you can see that those are the wallets holding over a,000 Bitcoin. And what you can see here, there's been a a different behavior. I think we touched on last week. So, we've basically gone on a rampage there. So, 2,400 wallets had over a,000 Bitcoin. And then you can see, by the way, the top is the purple and the bottom is the orange. You can see that at the bottom, both times we had around 1,800 wallets. But this time or this cycle, the behavior has been slightly different. So instead of going up on a rampage, as you can see here, we've just gone up and then down, up and then down. So this shows I don't know if you can see it, but shows a different behavior, right?

[00:25:19]>> I I think what is the date there? Like how what's the dates on the bottom? So the dates here, this is Q4 2022, which is when we when we bought them, and we bought them at 1,880 wallets holding over a,000 Bitcoin.

[00:25:37]>> And so >> yeah, I wonder if this is just like more institutional adoption happening, you know, >> 100%. I think so. And I think some of those some of those data charts whatever you want to label them they are going to change because we have introduced a different type of investor. So in fact most of the indicator are saying probably fear and grade itself which is a conglomerate of multiple things. I think we'll have to retune in and readjust those signal flashing because like you said we have a different investor joining. So I'm expecting the data to reflect that type. Also you can see here holder in profit. That's another good one. So those are number of bitcoin addresses in profit and you can see that we usually bottom at 42% more or less and we are now at 65. But I would argue those those data points are going to [snorts] be affected by I mean ETF themselves right even if you look at the ETF like we like we showed earlier how can this not be impacting the fact that we have companies like strategy accumulating we have metanet last week they bought some bitcoin so those are going to change number of wallet holding the behavior so I wonder if this was the cycle where some of those indicator are going to I don't want to say reset But get adjusted to this kind of stuff because like like we are saying it's going to change, right? And if you like like I showed you earlier, even if you believe the four-ear cycle is due, we might have a little bit more pain ahead, but it's not going to be something like $20,000 Bitcoin, I don't believe. So, and then I've also added the cost of production. This is going to be really difficult to know. Um, so this is of course an average because we don't know how much it cost to produce a bitcoin because it depends on so many variables.

[00:27:29]But there is a there is an average which is 75,000ish given or take. Uh some people are saying oh there's also the electric cost. There are so many variables and like I said it depends on what kind of data you're looking at. Some indicators are flashing that you know the low is in. Some other indicating indicator are saying we have not gone as low as we should go. So it's going to be really difficult to catch it. Uh of course but something interesting here is like the performance if you compare Bitcoin to gold uh gold has been doing much better in certain time frames. So if you go for example in 2024 alone the old year Bitcoin has done worse. 2025 of course massive gap there. If you go on a three months you can see almost the opposite and in a six month base basically in any time frame which is smaller than two years um Bitcoin has been suffering from gold. So this could be a good sign because usually what happens in Bitcoin is I mean again we don't know but on average Bitcoin likes to follow what gold is doing. So potentially maybe next year is when Bitcoin catches up with gold because a catchup is due massively.

[00:28:45]>> Matt Matt said he wants to join.

[00:28:48]>> Oh, awesome. Yeah, let's uh let's invite him in. Sorry, I haven't seen I haven't seen the message. Uh >> he needs he needs the link. I don't have it on my phone here.

[00:28:56]>> Okay, give me one sec, guys. I'm going to invite [clears throat] going to invite Matt. Thanks for the thanks for the I was not looking at the chat.

[00:29:04]Sorry, Matt.

[00:29:06]Okay, let's see. Um, perfect. Send me the link and maybe you can join us. So, yeah, this will be an interesting one.

[00:29:12]Um, something else I wanted to show you is this. I don't know if you had any chance in reading this. I I had a I mean, I've seen it. I was like, "Wow, this is interesting, but I didn't have time to go through the whole article, but um I love how he framed it. 110 reason why the APO10 is a bad idea."

[00:29:30]Have you had a chance to read it or not at all? No, I skim through it and I'm like, "Wow, this is going to take up a lot of time." And look, this whole BIP 110 uh debate, it it really reminds me of political debates where you just have people mudslinging back and forth, calling each other names, both sides think they're 100% right. Um, and uh, yeah, it's just it's it's uh it's gotten really vicious. It's become more like attacking people's reputations than talking about ideas. And uh, you're not really going to win over too many people if you say things like, "Oh, you're not a Bitcoiner if you don't, you know, believe what I believe." Um, and for any change to Bitcoin, you need to me like a decent amount of consensus. I mean that's kind of the point of Bitcoin and I don't think there is a a decent size that [clears throat] are supportive of this BIP 110 but we'll see what happens you know when it's you know about to go into effect. It should be interesting.

[00:30:47]>> Yeah. Hey Matt, by the way welcome.

[00:30:49]Sorry I haven't seen your message. It's good to have you here. How you doing man?

[00:30:53]>> I'm very well thank you. Sorry for being late, guys. A little bit of a a leg break delay scenario, but happy to be here. I was just eager to get in uh even even if it was just the last 15 minutes.

[00:31:03]So, sorry for for gate crashing. I have been listening. So, yes, glad to be here.

[00:31:08]>> Yeah, I've seen your message. This is brilliant. It's like I'm just buying the exact bottom and sell the top. Why doesn't everyone die? Yeah, that that's that's a good point. Have you had a chance to read through this, by the way, Matt? cuz I didn't have any single second, but I want to read it through cuz I know it's quite a long article. I wonder if you had any chance to read it through. There is a lot here to digest.

[00:31:30]>> I'm not seeing this, but I'm looking forward to reading through it. Uh because I personally think Sailor's dismissal of BIP 110 is one of his best takes in a while. So, I actually like this. I'm very much against it. I I don't think it's good for Bitcoin long term, even though I can obviously see there's pros and cons to both sides of the argument. I think ultimately any type of hard limitations on what Bitcoin is probably isn't the best uh long term.

[00:32:00]And there's also the argument as well of Bitcoin just doesn't have enough onchain utilization right now to generate enough revenue for miners through fees to actually sustain the network security longterm. I don't know if you guys mentioned this. There was a brief period where I kind of cut out before I joined.

[00:32:17]But at the minute about 1% less than 1% of all minor revenue comes from onchain transaction fees. And if we limit that even further, then that's going to drop even more. That block subsidy is trending towards zero. At some point, the incentive for miners does become questionable. So further limiting how miners can actually generate revenue is again long-term not something that I think is a smart idea.

[00:32:40]>> Yeah. Yeah, I mean I I was telling Neil off camera earlier I had um guests on both uh directions. I'm going to publish a podcast with Stephanie I recorded on Friday and he's obviously against as much as Sailor and many others Adam back and so forth. But I also had some people on like Dr. Jack Cruz and other people they think it's a good idea. I don't run knots to be honest. Um I don't run a node but I don't think the BIP 110 is a good idea either. And I I find also those guys that have the BIP 110 in their name a bit creepy. Like it reminds me of the I don't know the vaccine on Facebook thing. I don't know. I don't I'm not fully digesting it. Um again, I think it's great. Any conversation is healthy. I'm I'm super pro people talking to each other. I don't like when things are becoming personal like you said. I mean I had a similar experience here. So, I'm going to have Peter Chiff on debating Rajat. And you guys, I have no idea the amount of backlash this got me. Some people blocked me because I I apparently I platform him and I'm like, "Guys, do you realize he has 1.5 million, actually 1.6 million on X? He doesn't need me. [laughter] I'm not platforming him. If anything, it's the other way around." And by the way, what's wrong with talking to people? I mean, some of the comments I got in there, oh, this guy is sold out. He needs to pay the bills. And I'm like, what's wrong with you everyone? Like I I don't know. I I like people talking. I like facilitate facilitating different opinions. And I've been begging people to come on the show and talk about BIP 10. Say, hey, what if I find someone which is pro, someone which is against?

[00:34:16]Can you guys come and talk? No. Because it's easier to stay in your mother basement and accusing Adam back to be a scammer when I'm like, do you realize who this man is? I mean, do you realize how much he has done for Bitcoin? So the whole thing has gone bananas. It reminds me of the block size war in 2017 kind of not [snorts] as bad and like everyone is doing you know fork off and find out you know if you want to have a different op return just fork off you know politely and find out and see how much consensus you have plus we have bigger problems to fry and all these people by the way nobody likes spam I mean you don't have anyone based on my understanding who goes I like spam I want the opio return to be large because I I'm pro spam no one likes spam and even Though to be honest, I like to think about the market. There should be a free market in charge of what Bitcoin is going to become. If there is a market for people to do certain things, who am I to block it? Like the whole point is not blocking anything.

[00:35:15]>> And and who decides like what spam is and what spam isn't? Um, you know, people are paying to send something almost by definition that's not spam.

[00:35:27]You know, you could talk, right? I mean it has spam is kind of when someone you know the our normal version of spam is when someone sends you an email an unsolicited email.

[00:35:38]>> Uh these people are paying a fee um to put whatever they want either you know a monetary transaction being sent over the blockchain or some other data. You know who are we to say what's allowed and what's not? Um, as long as it's following, you know, consensus rules.

[00:35:59]>> Exactly. I'm gonna make a a joke. I don't know if you guys will find >> it's a slippery slope.

[00:36:03]>> Yeah. And and if you're able to like put in changes, I don't like this. What stops like a government coming in and saying anyone who doesn't change it to exactly how we want it, we're going to arrest you. And if people like, we can change it. It's Bitcoin. Well, you did this. You're able to change it here. So, you can, right? it gets into this uh I I I just think if there's going to be a change, you need you should have like an overwhelming consensus of uh holders kind of on the same page. This seems more like just a I don't know a a minority of PE I look who it almost has a leader, right? Luke Dash Jr. and mechanic. Yeah, >> Luke has been talking with the FBI the past couple years, right? Because he allegedly had a bunch of bitcoins stolen.

[00:37:02]>> Um, why would I trust someone who's like currently probably currently, I don't know for sure, but has talked with the FBI and is now leading a movement that has divided, you know, many in the Bitcoin community.

[00:37:19]Why would I believe someone that that has that kind of connection? Um, and all he does is call people liars, right?

[00:37:28]Liar, liar, liar, liar, liar. I don't know if you've seen Luke's thing. It's always you're a liar, you're a liar.

[00:37:33]There's no like civil discourse.

[00:37:37]>> Yeah. And also, I would say careful who you listen to because some of those influencers are just trying to gain followers. So, they'll surf any wave to gain followers. So they'll say they'll put the BIP next to their name so that people follow them just to increase their follow count. So I mean I don't have any problems in people running whatever nodes they want. It's your computer your choice. I don't care. But I think this is one of the most uh yeah people asked me I was like look I I I don't run knots. I don't plan to run knots and I think this is a distraction.

[00:38:08]Uh there is probably bigger problems problems to fry. And I think now there's going to be a point where like you said, consensus is not going to give. So either they'll fork off and find out or um yeah, I guess time will tell. Some of the people I like and respect are pro VIP 110. That's why, you know, in the beginning I was a little bit confused.

[00:38:31]Uh and I'm not sure why. I'm not sure if they understood what it is. I'm not sure if they are playing. But like you said, Matt, I have problem when people start talking people names. Hey, you know, and discount everything they've done. Like people attacking Adam back and I'm like, dude, that man is a legend. Leave him alone, you know. And then you have some people, they are crazy angry and they'll they'll scream at everything. Doesn't matter what it is. So yeah, the old thing is funny, but I I'm expecting in 6 months these things to be vanished to be honest. I don't think it's going to stick around. I mean, there's what 125 Bitcoin forks already. So that might be 126 or whatever the number is. But I don't think that I don't think it's going to get to a to a hard fork anyway.

[00:39:11]I don't think it's going to get that far. So, six months from now, it's going to be water under a ducks bag, I think.

[00:39:19]But yeah, this happened. So, I thought it was nice addressing. I'll probably read through the weekend, too. Also, Lin Alden came up. Um, she said something on VIP. I don't know if you seen the orange juice. I thought the branding was amazing. Spot on on the branding with company calling Orange Juice. And I think she also said she doesn't get the BIP 110 because it doesn't stop spam anyway. So, it is what it is. But, um, like I said, I'll be uploading an episode probably next week or maybe this week if I can edit it in time with Stefan Le and he went in quite deep in explaining why this is a bad idea. So, probably worth worth watching it too. And then what else I wanted to show you? This is an interesting stats from River. They have so many good graphs, man. Love River. This is the lifespan of a fiat currencies. You can see them. I don't know if you can read them because they are really small. Let me see if I can zoom. No, I can't zoom in. Is there an image? But you can see that the they all going to die sooner or later. Some countries have larger problems than others. So, I wonder how long the dollar has, but it's not forever. So Bitcoin >> I mean this version of the dollars really only existed for what 50 plus years since 1971.

[00:40:36]>> So I don't know.

[00:40:38]>> Yeah, you can see I don't know if you can see the the image has a little bit of a a kind of a an explosion in the end. Probably it's too small you can see. Let me see if I can save it. And uh but I thought this is brilliant. Let's see if I can make it bigger. There you go. So you see there is a little bit of a explosure moment there. So some of them have gone forever. But I mean the Italian lera has been has been gone to remember I remember when the change happened the the European Union gone through like a unified euro which I think is where all the problems have started but it is what it is and I remember doing the math and thinking okay now everything I have in Italian lera I have to double it to get to a euro but people's salary didn't double you know so there was I would never forget the the Milano tube system or the the metro as we call it the tube in London has gone from uh 1,000 liter mill to€2 which basically 4x overnight because you know your money in the bank was chopped in half because if you had a€,000 LRA you had €500 so half of it but the cost of living has gone doubled so you basically found yourself with half of the money and everything costed twice as much which was not fun and technically Europe is one of the places where you Now it's not as bad as Turkey for example or Brazil. So like we are saying the dollar is okay even though it loses what 8% a year on average with inflation but there are places where 8% a year will be a luxury. It's more like 20% a month. So Bitcoin doesn't have to be your choice but we can all agree that inflation exists. So yeah, I don't know how long the dollar has, but regardless, it's going to it's going to corrode at best 8% a year, right? So you have to do something here.

[00:42:32]It's up to you to decide what you want to do, but it is what it is. And I wanted to show you this. I'm building I don't know if you guys have seen this.

[00:42:38]I've I've gone crazy with AI over the weekend. So I built this um it's kind of a visual representation of the price the price of Bitcoin. You can see you have orcs fighting. Orcs are basically the the bear and they're fighting with the diamond hands or the humans in this case. So I I included a couple of new things. You have the paladin now. It comes in every now and then. I don't know what I'm going to do with this, but I'm having so much fun in building it. I think I should I don't know continue to do some stuff and maybe make it interactive. I don't know. But I've spent quite a few days in building it. I guess the idea was I mean got inspired by the Bitcoin battlefield. I don't know if you guys came across this. That is a really interesting idea and but this is supposed to be like a trading thing. So I went for a proper way to visualize the price. I guess the idea is if you want to know what Bitcoin is doing instead of going and watching charts, you can watch people battling [laughter] one another.

[00:43:37]So, if you have any idea what can I do with this, please let me know because I'm uh I'm into a stage where now I'm representing the Bitcoin price. But maybe there is something more I could do there. I don't know if you guys came across this.

[00:43:53]Yeah, I think it's pretty cool. I think if you could have like the order books to see like the depth of orders at certain prices as like the waves behind the current fighters coming in as price moves, that would be pretty interesting.

[00:44:04]But again, it's just a a nice fun cool way to to actually see what's happening.

[00:44:08]>> Yeah, I've added a I have a version there. I've added the music now. So, I don't know if you can see it. Let me Oh, there you go. So, there is a music sound. There's like an epic sound you can play and then you can just move the camera. I was telling Neil before I've added the paladin. There is a bar here and that shows when the paladin is going to enter the field and if your camera is on automatic, it's going to follow the paladin which has lightning. I think the the thinking behind is whenever there's a big price swing, there's a big event coming. So, I'll probably come up with something when or maybe even when we go, for example, over 100,000 back or see the paladin comes in now because of the the timer. [laughter] It's been super fun to build. I mean, AI is incredibly powerful, but it doesn't I mean, it does it requires a lot of prompting. So, it took me a long time to just make things as I wanted them to be.

[00:44:57]But um yeah, anyway, it's a good idea, Matt. I'll probably try to put on more more maybe historical data or maybe even a button that says I'm bullish, I'm bearish to see the sentiment and do something with maybe I don't know, I could add some sort of a visual element when people are bullish or bearish. And these elements, they could boost visually the old battlefield or whatever. Maybe even I I bought this pack of 3D elements from this guy called Kai Kit and he has some really cool ones. There is like werewolves, you have clowns, you have So maybe I can introduce new skins if something happens or I'll definitely I found it funny whenever I I had time to kill or while I'm waiting for my videos to render or something, I'm just going to probably add a new feature. But I thought it was cool if you have a screen, you want to leave the price of Bitcoin instead of just looking at stuff like this, you know, you can see a battleground.

[00:45:52][laughter] So yeah, >> it'd be cool a version that was like the the Bitcoin blockchain where it was underwater and then all the transactions happening that was small, there was little shrimp, but then you could actually see a big whale swimming when there was an actual whale transaction happening and then maybe like a net comes and picks them out of the water when that block gets confirmed for all the transactions. Just a way that we can see like, oh, there's a lot of Bitcoin moving in this block. Just just an idea of like a secondary mode if you need another three days of work on something.

[00:46:21]>> Yeah, that's a good one. Do you remember there was a game I used to play? Oh man, a long time ago that you had three different um so the game was happening in three different things. You had under uh water, you had water, and you had sky. So each level had um a different level. So I could have that where you can choose maybe somewhere here on top.

[00:46:40]You have I want to see the the blockchain in the basement or I want to stay in the battle or I can go on the sky and each level shows you different data points. That'll be cool. And I can introduce my my werewolves and my I bought so many. So the pack had a lot of different skins. So I had some of them are really cool. There is like this clown with his massive sword. I don't even know what this guy does. What it takes for you design those models. But uh it was like a 50 bucks thing. And maybe I'll uh it's a good idea. Maybe I'll do I'll do a floor like underwater water and sky thing. And then each head has a different data point. But yeah, to show every now and then I've I just wanted to put my hands into the AI thing, but uh as much as I'm impressed with everything still requires a lot of um prompting, you know, I was uh I was expecting something I don't want to say more cuz that but whenever you task uh code to do something, there's so many bugs in there and to get to a stable version took me yeah a lot of hours. um in the beginning was super row. So I'll I'll keep building this. Of course, it's accessible by the the dashboard I'm building anyway. You can go down here and you can click on there and you can have it and I I'll keep I'll keep building on the dashboard. I've also added some um onchain data there. So I'll probably keep building. It's kind of a cool way for for us to use it whenever we want. I know we have the Bitcoin magazine pro which is amazing, but those are more like fear and greed and things I normally have to go returns. Those are the two things I watch the most as well as the ETFs um inflow and outflow. So those are the data I check daily. So I wanted to have some proper ones that I can use. So yeah, that's what I've been doing over the weekend [laughter] more or less. But thank you both, man.

[00:48:34]Always a pleasure and thank you for for joining in uh towards the end, Matt.

[00:48:38]Really appreciate.

[00:48:41]>> Yeah. No, it was uh great to be here. As I said, I'm sorry I couldn't be here for the full show, but from next week I'll be fully back in action.

[00:48:49]>> Nice. Fantastic. Cool. So, thank you.

[00:48:52]Thank you. Thank you, Neil, as always, guys. Thank you so much for tuning in.

[00:48:54]Always a pleasure. I love those Mondays shows. And we guys will see you next week, I guess. Sounds good. Cha cha.

[00:49:02]Bye.