Investors like a 'clear path forward' and they're getting mixed signals, expert says

Added: 2026-05-08

[00:00:00]Mark, talk to me about what you're seeing here with all of these numbers and kind of your macro view of the markets and the economy right now. Great question. So, you know, the the numbers are are saying they're not saying anything extreme enough to warrant any fire bells. However, they're not great either and that's a very uncomfortable position to be in cuz you want to get as investors like to see a clear path forward. And so we're getting mixed signals and mixed signals and and numbers that are close to the line kind of make folks a little bit uncomfortable about what comes next.

[00:00:29]>> consumer sentiment is sliding.

[00:00:31]Do you think the Fed made the right choice yesterday? And and there was a lot of dissent uh in the room more than we've seen in years. That's a tough one and and that's a huge debate, right?

[00:00:40]Because the Fed is now of course according to them looking at crude oil prices spiking. However, that's a supply shock and the supply shock the Fed has very few tools to affect supply shocks.

[00:00:52]So, you you wonder if they're concerned about inflation and inflation's being driven by crude oil, can the Fed actually be effective by keeping rates restrictive when consumers are struggling with higher rates right now?

[00:01:04]>> Right. Right. And they've got the employment picture to deal with. We had those claims come in better than expected. So, you know, it's it's easy sometimes to forget that the market is not really a direct reflection of the economy. The S&P hitting all-time highs.

[00:01:17]I was looking at the S&P 9% month-to-date. That's the best performance we've had since 2020. Dow's up 6%, best since November 2024. So, where's the disconnect do you think right now? Because no matter what the headline is, investors are powering the numbers up. That's correct. And that that's a challenge. But you know, if you take a step back and you see what powered the S&P to these levels, you see it's powered by a few uh few uh major uh mega-cap stocks and that's the challenge, right? It's it looks broad, but it's actually only 2 in deep. Uh and uh but that's still very good because there's a chance that you know, of course those companies, as they typically do, they'll bring the less rest along. However, you do have to be you know, you do have to question, you have to look carefully and wonder if it's sustainable and wonder if the economic numbers in 2 3 months down the line are going to support these uh these numbers going forward.

[00:02:08]>> we knew that we were going to get an inflation hit the energy component.

[00:02:11]Still, the market moved right past it.

[00:02:14]One of the things I I found interesting about your take on the markets right now, you note that Alan Greenspan's irrational exuberance uh warning back in the day kind of a useful parallel when it comes to stock valuations. Um you know, investors run the risk of missing out on massive gains. So, you know, how do you decipher optimism from being irrational? Because many say, and you make the point, Greenspan was ahead of his time. Yeah, I mean, it's kind of tough. First of all, as you know, you don't know that you're in an irrational situation. So, it's incumbent upon us all to step back and say, are we being irrational here? But one of the hardest learned lessons that I've certainly had in my career is that markets can be expensive for long periods of time. They can be overbought for long periods of time. And of course, uh his message now looking back was prescient on what happened 4 years after the he said them.

[00:03:03]So, >> Dot-com bust.

[00:03:03]>> Yeah, if you pulled out at that point, you left lost out on 300% gains. So, yes, you do have to pay attention. You can't sleep when markets are trading like this, which is why I have big bags under my eyes.

[00:03:15]>> [laughter] >> I think we all do at this point. It's been And you know, and again, it's been a volatile year, but again, it's been a strong year. Look, I'll take a Caterpillar number like we got. But let's talk about tech. Obviously, that is the big focus right now. So, a lot of earnings coming up this week. You've got high conviction on Google, Microsoft, and then of course, Apple, which of course is coming out today. Google up, Microsoft down. Uh you know, ahead with Apple at least, I'm kind of curious what you're looking for.

[00:03:41]You know, you've got this leadership change uh with Tim Cook. I don't know if you're factoring that in, if you want more details on that. What's the story going to be for you?

[00:03:48]>> that's the big one. You know, Apple is a great stock in and of itself without any of this. But of course, the big question that we've been asking every single quarter is what is Apple's AI story? But now with a leadership change, we're anticipating some very interesting things. And so, if you try to read the tea leaves on this, the new CEO is a hardware person. So, the question is is what what are they going to do? Are they going to have a secret strategy? A lot of people are suggesting that Apple will have a a a device-based strategy versus these mega-cap companies, right? Because they spent a lot of time, certainly the new CEO, on developing the chips that go into all these phones. So, it'll be very interesting. I believe he may be on the on the call uh tonight. And so, we'll be listening very carefully for that. Uh this one here, they don't have to knock it out of the park. They'll do well in terms of the numbers, but we'll be listening what's the strategy. Will we learn anything about this leadership change over at Apple?

[00:04:42]>> Interesting you say that because they've been so criticized about being behind the eight ball when it comes to AI. The device story though would be, I would think, if they can come up with some innovative, you know, ideas at least. I mean, what else can we do with an iPhone? You shrink it, you fold it.

[00:04:57]Mini max. I don't know. I I I like that you're saying that. Real quick, I I do want to hit the security stocks that you're watching, kind of some good ideas here. You've got CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, uh and Zscaler. Yeah, I mean, look, these stocks here, you know, it's very hard to look at some of these guys.

[00:05:11]They've been under a lot of pressure in some way. They kind of got beaten up a little bit with all the other software stocks. The fact of the matter is is these stocks are more important than ever as we as we see AI expand and get smarter. Uh we know that that means that there are easier ways for people to penetrate networks and so on and so forth. You can't imagine a world that we're all talking about, the growth world, without stocks like this to support the security underlying those.

[00:05:37]These are long-term holds for us. Yes, they're volatile. They give us a little bit of pain, but they're going to save us a lot of much bigger pain in the future. So, we keep our money there.

[00:05:46]It's a smart investment.

[00:05:47]>> between the whole mythos story that we've been dealing with, obviously, security is on everyone's mind.

[00:05:52]>> nail right on the head. Exactly. Yeah, it should be. Mark, great to have you on the program. Thank you for being here.

[00:05:57]>> you.