Ford returns from Washington empty-handed

[00:00:08]Ending the Cuz trade deal could be the start of an even better economic arrangement between the United States and Canada. That according to the US ambassador. Pete Hookstra spoke to a business audience in Toronto and painted a rosy picture of what the future relationship might look like if Canada plays its cards right. We've invited Canada to be a partner in expanding and growing all of the areas that we cooperate in today.

[00:00:41]Expanding parts of our economy, agriculture, energy, transportation.

[00:00:45]Yes, even autos, steel, aluminum, and defense. Look forward to going through the negotiations on some of the issues that we're talking about. We're waiting for Canada to respond, but once Canada clearly outlines its direction and what it wants from the negotiations, uh, I think that we can do some great things together.

[00:01:08]>> Well, this week, President Trump threatened to end the Cusma trade deal, calling NAFTA the worst deal possible for the United States.

[00:01:17]Well, a humiliating cancellation of Doug Ford's reception in Washington DC could be worn as a badge of honor that according to one of Ford's cabinet ministers, Vic Fidelli was responding to media reports the reception was cancelled under pressure from the White House.

[00:01:36]>> Sure. Yes.

[00:01:38]>> Can I just add something? If those rumors that President Trump cancelled uh forced the chamber to cancel the meeting are true, then I think Premier Ford should be wearing that as a badge of honor. I think the fact that he stood up, face truth to power, I think that's uh standing up for Canada, standing up for Ontario, and I think that's uh uh that's what this is all about.

[00:02:06]Well, the backlash from the White House could be payback for Ford's repeated public attacks on Trump as a tyrant.

[00:02:15]President Trump is eyeing a possible ground invasion of Car Island, Iran's critical oil export hub. The island is a critical bottleneck for almost all of Iran's oil wealth. It handles 90% of Iran's crude oil exports with a capacity of around 7 million barrels a day.

[00:02:37]Vowing to hit Iran militarily, Trump posted this on Truth Social.

[00:02:43]At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Car Island and other oil infrastructure points and assume total control of their oil and gas markets much like we have with Venezuela, which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America.

[00:03:05]Our guest today is Joe Barner, senior fellow at the McDonald Laurier Institute. Welcome, Joe.

[00:03:12]Great to be back, Mark.

[00:03:13]>> I mean, in a way, uh, Car Island has been in the crosshairs of the Trump administration from the start of the war, it makes sense, uh, from a military vantage point. Now, whether or not the American public will buy into the idea, because of course here we're talking about ground troops, how do you see this playing out?

[00:03:38]Well, I think in terms of Car Island, it's it's the jewel in the crown for the Iranian uh petrochemical industry. So 90% of their oil is exported out of that that terminal. It's 50 mi offshore.

[00:03:52]Should be fairly easy to isolate and uh you know uh to control. Uh but I don't know how many troops the Iranians have on Carag Island. I can tell you that it's allegedly honeycombed with tunnels.

[00:04:07]Uh uh the beaches are covered with mines. Uh they have anti-aircraft defenses and and they have anti-ship defenses. So So it may be a tough nut to crack. It's never never as easy as it sounds on paper. Uh there are seven other islands in the straight of Hormuz that also have detachments of of Iranian revolutionary guard. That's who's allegedly on on the island at KRG. Um, elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and I'm not sure what that means. Um, but uh there are supposed to be detachments on the other seven islands which the the Iranians are using to control the straits.

[00:04:50]>> Yeah. Yeah. And I don't think the US public is willing to sustain or has much of an appetite to sustain uh a whole lot of casualties. I mean to your point, who knows what the military capacity is on that island. I guess the alternative is to flatten it. you know, which I think the Americans certainly have that capability, but I think what they'd prefer to do is just take it over and essentially well, and Trump has made it clear basically take over Iran's oil industry as it did Venezuela. That that's according to the president himself.

[00:05:26]That would be quite the move. I mean, if he could pull it off.

[00:05:31]>> Well, I suspect he could pull it off um if if he wanted to. I mean, the United States has uh two uh uh groups of Marines uh in the area, and it's got, I believe, the 82nd Airborne Division, elements of that in the area. So, they they probably have the forces to do it.

[00:05:48]Whether he's prepared to do that in the run-up to the midterms in the United States is another question. And if he takes heavy casualties, uh that will certainly impact him in the midterms and and other Republican candidates. So I suspect that you know you know an invasion of the island is probably not going to happen and I think that that it's likely that there will be bombing and and uh you know uh particular targets that are taken but but who knows at this stage. Uh Trump has been looking for a deal to get out of this now for for weeks and he's shown the Iranians that he'll do anything to get out and and the Iranians are are waiting for him to get tired. uh are they going to react if he seizes Car Island or you know bombs it back to the stone age? They're talking about uh he he mentioned bridge day and uh and power plant day yesterday as well. So are we going to see strikes on on bridges and and power plants today? And the Iranians will almost certainly retaliate.

[00:06:51]>> Yeah. I mean Iran's strategy seems to be drag the puck as long as humanly possible. you know, drag this as close to the midterms as possible and have the Republicans pay the price in November.

[00:07:05]And so we could see the pressure being put on Iran to sign a deal, sign a deal, sign a deal. And u this could be this whole threat around Car Island could be another negotiating tactic on the part of Trump. I mean, we know he does that.

[00:07:20]If if he acts like he wants to go for it, it might prompt the the Iranians to say, "Okay, fine." you know, will sign a deal rather than potentially run the risk of losing that island to the Americans. And uh, of course, as you mentioned, 90% of their revenues, their oil traffic runs through that uh, strip of land. It's narrowed just 50 miles or so or something like that. Yeah, I think it's 40 50 miles from the Iranian mainland. And so, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. I think uh if they're going to do it though, I think they're going to have to do it relatively soon. You don't want to hold back. You don't you don't want to wait too long, do you? You're the Americans.

[00:08:04]>> No. And and I suspect that it is is uh an attempt to gain leverage. I don't know that I would telegraph uh the seizure of Carag Island ahead of an operation to do that. I do think that the Americans are going to bomb them pretty well tonight. And I do think you're going to see a short and intense air campaign. Um whether that will achieve the result is is another question. But you're absolutely right.

[00:08:29]The Iranians have been ragging the puck.

[00:08:31]They're not giving up their proxy militias. They're not giving up their nuclear program. They're not transferring their nuclear material anywhere. Uh and and they're uh not giving up their missiles or drones without a fight. And the Iranian Revolutionary Guard knows that, you know, if they give up and if they surrender and the people rise up, uh, their lives aren't worth a nickel. And so, you know, they're they're entrenched. The regime is entrenched and they're trying to wait Trump out. And I don't think in this case they're going to have an easy time because I think his patience have snapped.

[00:09:08]>> Would there be Israeli troops used in something like this? Obviously there's a lot of sensitivity around this the use of Israeli ground troops in that part of the world in the Gulf. Uh is that a possibility?

[00:09:25]>> I think it's more likely that there will be intelligence sharing. I would think the the Israelis have probably a good amount of intelligence uh and accurate intelligence on Carag Island in the seven islands in the straits form and I suspect that they will be sharing that with the Americans but I don't think you'll see Israeli ground troops uh on the ground on Kar Island or or uh or any of the seven others. I do think that you could see like the US Marines of the 82nd raid some of those seven islands and and uh and neutralize them, but I I think Car is a bit of a a bigger pill to swallow.

[00:10:06]>> Yeah. I mean, there's also the thing about whether you hold on to this island, how long do you hold on to it? I mean, is it does it just become another bargaining chip or could this be almost a permanent occupation of that strategic island going forward and actually controlling the oil that comes through that area?

[00:10:28]>> Well, it it'll be it'll be interesting to see what the uh what happens. Um, I I saw General Kellogg, a former advisor to Trump last night on television talking about um, you know, seize Car Island. I don't think seizing Car Island is is simple, but I, you know, it's it's in the realm of possibility. How long you hold it depends on whether you get the regime change you need in Iran and you get a cooperative regime. and and until, you know, there is regime change in Iran, uh we're going to be at this uh off and on uh for the for the foreseeable future.

[00:11:10]>> I mean, I wonder why the Trump administration is even pushing a deal. I mean, I I understand. But on the other hand, if Iran's capabilities, military and otherwise, have already been downgraded dramatically. They don't have a a navy left and their air force is wiped out, and even their nuclear program has been set back god knows how long. Even if they don't necessarily agree to end it alto together, why not simply walk away and declare victory and say, "We did what we wanted to do. uh you guys are in no position to fight back. We're done. We're out of here. Why not just say that rather than insist that Iran sit down and agree to something?

[00:11:53]>> Well, I think that that that in fact was the plan. And I think that Trump actually thought that he could do that.

[00:11:59]And I think the problem for for Trump is is twofold. Uh, first he has to have a better situation with Iran than the deal that Barack Obama had that that Trump heavily criticized.

[00:12:15]And and that will definitely play in the midterm elections. If he comes out in a lesser situation with the Iranians in control of the Gulf, and that's that's the other thing. I guess it's a three-fold problem. uh you can't leave Iran uh controlling uh segments of the Gulf or or the or the Straight of Hormuz.

[00:12:35]And I think the other thing that that's going on now and and you saw it in the last few days, you know, uh Trump's like, "We're going to make a deal. We're going to make a deal. We're going to make a deal." Uh the Iranians then decide to strike Israel with uh 20 or 21 ballistic missiles.

[00:12:56]uh the Israelis respond.

[00:13:00]Iran then comes back with even tighter controls that they'd like to see on on Israel, like complete capitulation in Lebanon, which isn't going to happen.

[00:13:09]And and then they decide to take down a US helicopter over the over the Persian Gulf or the or the the Sean. Um, Iran has become very unpredictable and and very aggressive and actually thinks that they're winning. They they're very overconfident and this impacts US deterrence. And I think that's why Trump had to finally respond uh with with some serious strikes on Iranian capabilities because it's not just deterrence in the Gulf.

[00:13:46]It's not just deterrence in the Middle East.

[00:13:48]it it'll end up being deterrence in Asia, probably around Taiwan or the Philippines or the Sakos that belong to Japan and it will be deterrence in Europe against Russia. Um, American credibility is now on the line, I think, in a way that hasn't been a long time.

[00:14:07]And I don't think that he can walk away.

[00:14:09]I think he tried, but I think he's he's stuck. Should Canada take a position on an attack on Car Island or stay out of it? What should Canada do here? If anything, >> well, Canada's Canada's position throughout this has changed repeatedly.

[00:14:27]So, uh I think it's it's unlikely that we'll take a position on on Car Island.

[00:14:33]Um and if we do, it'll be that, you know, it's a violation of international law or some some other silly thing. uh you know because Iran's violated international law for 47 years uh more honored in the in the breach than it is in in uh in reality. Um, so I think, you know, it's it's Canada's position probably should revolve around when things do settle, joining the French and British uh coalition that goes in to uh patrol the the Gulf and the Straits. And and for Canada to do that, it has to preposition some equipment. And we haven't done that that I know of yet, but I think that that would be a prudent move. some of the other European countries have started to kind of move things around to [snorts] get ready in the event that that happens. And I think you know you're liable given the strikes in the last uh 2 or 3 days they've concentrated on the southern coast they've concentrated on those islands the IRGC ports air defenses radar and drone and and missile uh uh uh control points. And I think that you know sooner or later the US will force open the straight of Hormuz. I don't think they have any choice in that. And and that'll mean a heavy pounding of that southern coast and and then you know maybe we have enough um uh freedom to get in and get out. I mean ships are getting in and out of the straight of Hormuz but you know they're also getting hit um you know some of them not all of them.

[00:16:16]>> Yeah. Yeah, I was just going to mention that fact that um oil is moving.

[00:16:21]Obviously, not at the rate that it was, but it seems to be enough to keep oil at least under or around $90 rather than 120. But it'll helping seeing what happens next in terms of this whole war because, you know, most Americans are getting tired of it. A lot of Americans are getting tired of it. And I'm sure Trump too is has had enough and wants us wants to wrap this up. Unfortunately, you know, you want to be able to walk away having accomplished something. And if all you did was, you know, mow the lawn in BB Netanyahu's words, you know, thinking that, yeah, we'll probably have to hit them again in a year or two or or five years down the road, then maybe uh Iran will have the opportunity to declare victory. You know, last word to you.

[00:17:16]>> Iran will declare a victory if the United States does not decisively defeat them and bring down their regime. That is a for certain and that is something Trump will have to live with ahead of the midterms. So he has no choice. I think the best thing the United States can do for the region, for the people of Iran, uh for the people of the United States and for Israel and and anyone that's dependent on oil coming out of the Gulf is to put an end to this. Now >> Joe Verer, thank you so much for coming on the show. We appreciate it as always.

[00:17:49]>> Thank you, sir.

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