NGX PREMARKET JUNE 19, 2026

[00:00:00]Good morning. Thank God it's Friday and for shareholders and the markets as a whole, is top of the radar on everyone's mind today.

[00:00:12]It is one of the biggest companies on the NGX by market cap. And so, everybody's watching out for the numbers. The firm had guided to dropping at the numbers all of before June 19, 2026. They had to shift the goalpost to the current deadline. Today is June 19, 2026. The market is watching. We are all watching. We want to see those numbers.

[00:00:38]But anyways, we go back to the market which was in the red yesterday. The all share index was down in the red. Some of the banking names dipped as well.

[00:00:46]Our our views are not very much changed all through the week as we've had in essence um you have some of these stocks trading below book value which in in any case there is no reason for that to be a permanent occurrence. So, in any case, clearly you can see for all the focus banks is an accumulatory and it's quite simple.

[00:01:09]I'm the trading below book value. GTCO is trading a bit above book value. It's not overpriced. Right? It's trading about what? Maybe um 1.27 times book value which isn't priced. Some will argue that for a bank of GTCO's standards as well as Zenith they should trade at 1.5 times book values. But in any case, it simply in my view, the strategy is to say, "Look, you have other tier tier one banks trading below book value. Focus on those." But fundamentally if you're looking at technicals and check that in a bit, I think um we'll see where GTCO is trading at. But fundamentally speaking, that to me is the foundation.

[00:01:48]You have First Old Co, UBA, Access Corporation, Zenith. And Zenith especially, I mean, you have Zenith trading at what? 0.95 times book value.

[00:01:58]This is a peer to GTCO. So, if GTCO is trading at 1.2 times book value, 1.3 times book value, I should have Sterling trading about that range. And so, that's why I actually have an accumulate view. Uh some would say buy, but with the current negative market sentiments, just deploying our cash all at once in my view doesn't make sense. So, you're better to have a a measured or staggered or gradually start approach uh to deploying funds in the market. I would go to the tier two banks.

[00:02:27]At the moment, FCMB and Fidelity, uh those I feel are worth accumulating at this point in time. Sterling numbers are quite weak. As we look at the return on assets, return on equity, Sterling is lagging. So, I'm not interested in Sterling.

[00:02:40]Uh Wema pretty solid numbers, some of the best in terms of return on assets, return on equity, as you can see.

[00:02:46]Uh return on equity, this is Q1 2026 numbers.

[00:02:49]Uh return on equity for Wema, 9.23% annualized, you're getting 36%.

[00:02:55]Uh return on assets, 1.21%.

[00:02:58]It is so actually is the best of all of them, as you can see.

[00:03:02]Annualized, you're getting a 4% return on assets. Ideally, I'd like to see 5, 6, 7%, or even 10% return on assets, which is in tall order.

[00:03:10]Um but a 4% I mean, it's the best return on assets they're getting when it comes to the tier two banks, at least the tier 2.2 banks. You notice I don't have Stanbic and IBTC. Uh Stanbic and uh Ecobank, those are tier 1.0 banks. Those are in a class of their own. So, uh in all fairness, it would be uh it would not be proper to compare those banks uh to these firms. It's a case of comparing Davids to Goliaths. They're way too big to be compared to these banks. Uh so, it's an accumulate view on FCMB. And I would say for those interested in FCMB, please take out the time, uh go listen to the FCMB call. It was quite educative. In fact, call I I give props to FCMB.

[00:03:55]Uh group investor relations do an amazing job giving enough notice, sending out your documents.

[00:04:03]Great job on that. I go listen to that call, but I would especially in my view should we see FCMB at 9 to 10 naira. Um I would definitely switch my accumulate view to a buy a buy view. If you see FCMB at 9 to 10 naira, I think that's place that you become a buy. Um no, but for now market sentiments mean that whatever you're watching, whatever you're eyeing in market accumulate is the way to go. Now, let's move over to the technical side of things. What do we have? Start with the all share index.

[00:04:37]Index is in the red.

[00:04:39]Um close just under the 240k mark. So, let's see what the technicals uh tell us. Daily says sell.

[00:04:49]But, where are we? We are We actually We actually below the S3 support zones. So, at this point I'm not sure where will be the next support level.

[00:04:58]That is the question you have to ask.

[00:05:01]Um we look at the moving averages. We are at 237.

[00:05:05]The 50-day moving average is 234k. So, I think that is the point to watch out for.

[00:05:10]Uh the moving averages are neutral as you can see buy six sell six.

[00:05:14]RSI says sell. Stochastic says overbought.

[00:05:19]Um so, clearly bears do mean uh in in in full sway on the NGX going by where the all share index is trading.

[00:05:29]The weekly stay strong buy. I think the daily is more important for the index than weekly. Um so, right now I'm not too worried. We are at 237k, 238k.

[00:05:42]Uh we can round it up to 238k and we are just at the S3 zone. If we fall below this, if we hit the 225 to 30k, I think that's where we're going to see some more pressure. I don't see that happening today. Uh the big dip you saw yesterday was largely due to uh Dangote Cement dropping slightly.

[00:06:01]Um so, I don't I don't think we're going to have a steep fall today. In any case, hopefully, if the Ardova numbers are out early and they overperform, or at least they beat market expectations, we could see a reversal uh in the index, and it would be nice uh to see some green after days of losses. Ardova Cement at the deep yesterday fell by 7.36%.

[00:06:25]It's trading at 1,079 a share.

[00:06:28]Um Let's look at what P/E ratio-wise uh this is 15 times earnings. I think this is cheap, actually. This is should be probably trading You can stretch it.

[00:06:38]Going by Q1 performance, you can probably argue that this should be 17x 18 x multiple stock.

[00:06:46]Um But, let's see what the technicals uh tell us. The daily is neutral.

[00:06:52]Uh 1070, can we look at the weekly?

[00:06:56]1070 just puts us below the support level. So, let's look at on the daily.

[00:07:02]Moving averages, where does 1070 put us?

[00:07:05]Puts it just around the 50-day moving average. RSI says sell, stochastic says buy.

[00:07:12]Uh fundamentally, this is a buy, but I think for me, if {slash} when uh you can get this stock to be a tough tough order more so with a London listing in the horizon, but if you can get this stock at 900, 1,000, um that definitely is a full buy. Uh so, for now, at best, this is an accumulate zone uh for this stock uh in my view.

[00:07:36]I will go to Ardova purely within technicals here. 1670 in my view is quite cheap for the stock. you can say, why do I say so?

[00:07:44]Um the 52-week high is 2024 2024 naira a share. So, about 1617 you are just below you're a bit over 10% below the 52-week high. And so, it's an easy play for me, even though the numbers you don't have the full sketch. Um you have a much bigger firm trading at 1670.

[00:08:11]So, like I assume that you can have maybe a 120 150 um full year earnings per share. Even if you work with a 120 naira full year earnings per share, or maybe that's the current run rate 120 150.

[00:08:26]And you apply a maybe 12x or 13x multiple. That kind of puts it at a fair value. So, it's not a bad place to get into this stock in my view. But we need the fundamentals, we need the results uh to confirm that. And the daily says strong sell.

[00:08:41]1670 just puts you at um the pivot point, or just R1 actually.

[00:08:48]First resistance point R1. So, uh you want to wait I mean, there's not much difference. R1 is 1670.34.

[00:08:57]Support level one S1 is 1669.34.

[00:09:01]So, we are almost there in any case. So, in my view um even though the technicals say sell, fundamentals say buy. So, fundamentals always outweigh technicals for solid stocks. Um so, I think this is a good place to accumulate. Um if you want to gamble and expect that the numbers to be dropped, disappoint in quote, because um sometimes market expectations can be high. But if the numbers disappoint and the stock stock drops, that's a better buy opportunity.

[00:09:30]Uh but rather than wait that, I just say if uh if you're not a trader, if you're an investor, this seems to be a fair point.

[00:09:38]Uh GTCO, we've looked at the fundamentals, so let's just look at what the technicals tell us.

[00:09:44]Daily says strong sell.

[00:09:46]Uh 128.35 just put you at the first support level.

[00:09:50]Second support level is 127.7.

[00:09:54]Third support level S3 is 127.4.

[00:09:58]In my mind, I think maybe 120 120 and below 1 15 120 would be a good place to accumulate um this stock. So, till then, let's sit still. RSI says sell. Stochastic says buy. Moving averages sell.

[00:10:16]We'll watch and see.

[00:10:18]Uh Zenith, where we in terms of technicals?

[00:10:23]Um Where are we in terms of technicals?

[00:10:28]Daily says uh Technical says strong sell.

[00:10:33]115.5.

[00:10:35]That puts you actually below support.

[00:10:38]You're below the S3 support zone.

[00:10:40]So, moving average-wise, that would put you at between the 50 to 100-day moving averages. RSI, I mean, technicals are all flashing. Summary of technicals, I sell on on the daily, but that's irrelevant in some ways because fundamentally this stock is trading below value. It will not remain there for long.

[00:11:00]Uh Fidelity, what do we have? Book value is 27. Um Daily also says sell.

[00:11:11]Uh Fidelity has tends to trade within a tight band, 18 20 18 20 21 18 20 units.

[00:11:20]So, I at 18.2, you're just around the first support level. The second support level, or actually you're between the S3 and S2 because S1 is 18.5 S2 is 18.3 at 18.2 at between support level three S3 and S2 I definitely think it's a buy moving averages I mean technical hours are flashing sell sell sell our fundamentals say buy to your best bet and that's why I go for the middle ground with the fundamentals say buy technical say sell what do you do you accumulate so if the technical hours go green then you download your buying if the technical hours mean red you keep accumulating until the four technical hours switch to where the fundamentals are we don't know how long this market will continue to deep deep deep slightly but whichever way it is your best bet is to accumulate sound stocks I thank you ladies and gentlemen see you at midday.