In market analysis, traders should monitor momentum levels (number of stocks breaking up vs. breaking down), identify key support levels like the 8-day EMA, and recognize that holidays and option expiration create increased volatility that favors day trading over swing trading; the bond market and USD movements provide important signals for market direction, with strong USD and bond market movements indicating potential inflationary pressure and market weakness.
Deep Dive
Prerequisite Knowledge
- No data available.
Where to go next
- No data available.
Deep Dive
Pre Market Must Watch
Added:We'll be starting in just one second, folks.
All right, let's let's start this party.
I wanted to say happy I wanted to say happy Friday, but it's uh it's Thursday, but it sure feels like a Friday, right?
Good morning, everybody. Good morning.
Let's say hello to everybody. We got Devin James. We got Stacy. She's great trader. We got Jeff. We got Dr. Luke. We got Arnulo Gregory. Uh we got Joanne. We got Katherine. We got Fred. Good morning, Fred. We got Brendan. Javad Mint. Vitali. Good morning, Vitali. Hope you're doing well. Uh we got Stefan. Uh we got Harry. We got Greg. We got Steve.
We got Jeff. We got uh Jesse. We got Steve. Jody, Tom, Rihanna, Richard, Wade, Jean, David, David, Tom, Sin, Mr. Koopa, Duff, Stan, Brian, Chris, Scotty, Charles, Jim, Scott, Doug, Bernie, the Bear, Adrian, Yuri's here, Brian, F, New York City, Rob, Jason, good morning, sir. Jeff, good morning. William, good morning. Russ, good morning. Desy, Stan, Sandy, good morning to you. Good morning, everybody. Penny, there she is.
Yep. Quad witching on uh on a Thursday holiday with low volume. What can go wrong? H [laughter] what can go wrong? Uh we got Genevieve, we got John, we got Pete, we got Mark, we got Yates, we got Diana, Walter, Cair, Dragon, Dawn, Ray, Paul, Moond Dog, Rebecca, Richard, Karen the Shark is here, Minnesota Matt. Um I'm glad that Lucy's feeling better. Baby, baby Lucy was uh upset about her, but I'm glad it's just a simple ear infection.
My dogs get that all the time. All the time. Bull rider, Ivano, Bill, good morning, Nathan. Good morning, Jack.
Good morning, Ivano. Good morning, Maso.
Henry, Steve, Lloyd, Hopium Addict, I need a I need a long weekend, too. I'm going to I'm going to be honest with you. I could sure as heck use a long weekend. Uh we got uh CJ, Dave, uh Lisa, good morning, Lisa. We got from Delaware. You know, Delaware, very very uh very cool state. Uh Gracie, Frank, Magic Hands, Robert, [clears throat] we got David, we got Don, we got uh uh G E Univer Jess Universe. Good morning, Roger. There you go. Gregory, good morning to you, sir. Hope you're doing well. Happy pretend I always say happy Friday eve. Happy Friday eve. Uh, Jennifer, Scampy, Kirk, Kevin, Joel, Brett, Charles.
Yes, V the we're going to be changing the VWAPs this weekend, folks. Um, I'm going to let everybody I'm going to send a note to everybody over the weekend.
Okay, we'll do that. Uh, I mean, it doesn't really nothing's going to happen for a day or two, but yes, definitely.
Definitely, Charles. We got to change the VWAP the quarter. What Charles is talking about folks is uh here you see one of these lines one of these lines right here see right here this is this is from beginning of the year and this VWAP is from 320 the blue one we got to change the blue one to um today's date okay we got to change it to today's date and I I'll do that over the weekend um after today's over but I will do that over the weekend and I'll I'll make sure everybody body has a note. Thank you for that. Charles, Bobby, Richie, good morning.
Good morning. We got uh we got um Bob, we got Goose. We got Colette.
We got uh we got Texas Kirk. We got uh Frier. Good morning, Frier. Frier from Miami. Frier. Miami. Frier. Good to meet you. We got Bob. Good morning, Bob. And uh hope you're having a good week.
Robert, uh, Dante, Kurt, Raj, Lewis, Mitch, Zachary, good morning, Leo, good morning, Lorski, Wayne, Dave, Richie, Armen, uh, Afad Diaz, Lorski, Vince, good morning, Vince, Eagle Beagle is here.
It's always good to have Eagle Beagle here. Uh, we got, um, Mac, you got, uh, Mike, Candace, William, got a lot of people here, Debbie, a lot of people here, Sandra, Mark, a lot of folks are coming in. Good morning, everybody. Good morning. Let me start off with the pleasant trees uh and get you guys going real quick. So, first things first, this is the link to yesterday's uh customer service live. They talked about using price volume, identifying small caps. They talked about all sorts of good stuff. Snipers, my personal ATM machine. I love that jur. I love that.
Thank you so much for that. I'm going to repost that. Look at that. That's very, very nice of you. Thank you. Sniper is amazing. The sniper really is uh something else. That's why I've been using it and working on it for the last three years. It's uh it's just an amazing tool. Let me just post it here.
All right, perfect. Uh got 1500 people here. 292. Good morning. Good morning.
Good morning. All right. All right.
Thank you, Jeremy. It's true. Peter, good morning. Mark, Donna, good morning, everybody. So, uh let me give you guys some links. some links. I got caught off track for a quick second here. So, you have the customer service live link uh for the replay yesterday. Now, let me give you their link for today's session from 10 to 1 and uh Cam will post the agenda here in a few seconds. Okay, there's the agenda and here's the link for you guys. Okay, uh here's the link to their telegram channel. Okay, we'll be getting starting in 1 second.
And here is a link to my Telegram channel.
And here's a link to my VIP room, which let me tell you what I'm going to be talking about today. I got a big agenda today.
Uh I could use a long weekend. We're going to talk about the big dinosaur chasing stocks. If you guys don't know what I'm talking about, you will. We're going to talk about correlation. We're going to talk about finding the perfect trending stock, the perfect seasonal stock, finding good liquidity, strong momentum, and finding a good option for it. We're going to talk about all of those things today. Um, we're not going to talk about top stocks today because it's the long holiday and there's not going to be much action after one and I have a lot to talk about. So, I figured that instead of me talking about top stocks that you guys are not going to take action in, might as well give you more more value.
Okay, so the link for that is right here. Thanks, Goose, for helping me out.
I appreciate it for And again, I'll I'll keep posting the the goodies. Now, if you're just coming in here right now, folks, there's two things I want you to do. Please, please, please uh make sure you're uh you're you're right here in 1080p. Thank you, Bob. Thank you. 1080p.
You're watching in 1080p. And at the same time, give us a thumbs up at one time if you benefit from this show. Um, and also subscribe to our channel. We have about 119,000 subscribers as of right now. Um, and you'll be seeing a lot more people in the fall, summer right now. Things are slowing down a little bit. Not too much, but they they should be slowing down. All right, let's get into it. Okay. Uh, the NASDAQ is up 400 points. And, uh, don't get too excited just yet. Please don't get too don't get swept up in FOMO. Let me finish my analysis and get to it because the way I do my analysis is one thing leads us to the next and leads us to the next and then we come up with a conclusion based on all of the data, not just, you know, the way the wind is blowing. Okay.
Uh and by the way, Clyde this morning, he's a little upset about the uh the the pres the retract the surrender offer with Iran. He's uh he's very upset about the geopolitical stuff because he doesn't believe this this thing will give us finality with Iran, which is what we need. And uh that's that 14point agreement was uh was a bust. But anyway, that's Clyde. Clyde got his own agenda going on. You know, Clyde is doing his own thing. Uh the Dow's up about 121. We don't have divergence today, but we don't have really a lot moving here.
Also, I was able to find a lot of really really Thank you, Mark. I was able to find a lot of really good short stocks today. I'm going to repeat that again.
Okay.
Last few days, it was very, very hard to find good shorts. This morning when I was looking at my short list, it was effortless, but it was not easy to find good long stocks. Just keep that in mind as we go through this. It was it was like I mean you'll see the short stocks you'll be like every one of them looks beautiful but the long stuff was a little so the market's starting to get a little wonky. Okay, but we'll get into all of that. Overall we're looking pretty good. I mean the S&P is up 50 points. That's nothing to laugh at. Um and 400 on the NASDAQ. So that's that's going to give us a little bit of uh a little bit of a cushion at least this morning. Okay. Again, I'm not that ner excited about the Dow, but the S&P seems to be holding on pretty good so far.
Okay.
[snorts] Um, as far as Fed data, we got jobless claims today and, uh, we got quad witching. Okay. Um, again, folks, keep something in mind. We're going to have low volume today because it's a holiday week. A lot of institutions are going to be taking a little bit a little taking a little uh uh personal time for themselves. As a result, a lot of as a result a lot Robert, you're absolutely right. Listen to what Robert just wrote.
Lot of shorts showing up in Sniper at 4 p.m. yesterday. Abs. I noticed that too, Robert. I I had a friend here. See that?
I have a chair here. I had You can't see it. I have a chair here that's new. I have I didn't have this chair here yesterday. I had a friend come over last uh yesterday afternoon after the market closed and we went over certain things and uh we both were noticing the same thing. We were both noticing exactly the same thing that there was a lot of sniper shorts at 4:00. But anyways, let's uh so so again uh the the uh Philadelphia manufacturing is coming out jobless claims. Now, last time jobless claims picked up to a little bit a hair above 225, which was the consensus, and they went to 229. Now, if this number starts jumping to say 250, 270, 290, it could mean something. But if it's just going to stick around to 220 or go back to 200, it means absolutely nothing. And um by the way, this didn't seem to be a big this didn't seem to be a major red flag in yesterday's um announcement. All right.
If the market gaps up, gaps are are gifts. Gaps are gifts. If you have longs and you have a gap and that and that long gaps, not the index, but the gap the stock itself, that's a gift. Gaps are gift.
Okay.
So, but not the index, Gaia. The the actual stock you're trading. Okay. The actual stock you're trading. Okay. Let's continue.
Um, Gia, we'll talk about that. Let's let's kind of go through our analysis and just naturally progress and a lot of these questions will be answered. And folks, you can always email me roger rogerscott.com. Here, I'll post it here.
roger atrogerscott.com.
There you go. Okay. So, we'll see how this goes. It's going to come out in about 15 20 minutes. I'm not expecting anything major because in the last 7 years this number has been at bay and it's gotten to like 270 240 and then it just comes right back down. The bond market, the bond market is breaking up nicely. This is very, very, very, very positive. This is about the most favorable thing I could tell you today.
Why? Well, we're getting a Remember I showed you we have a lot of consolidation here that we need to get past. And look at how well the bond market's getting. Let me just move this real quick.
So, we have a lot of stuff to the left of us here. See that? A lot of stuff to the left of us. And look at how easily the bond market was able to get past it.
That's really helping technology and you know the broad market quite a bit.
Problem is we have this VWAP here. We need to get above this VWOP and then we need to get above the 200. If we can get above this level right here, right here, we'll be okay. The problem is you see this trend now folks, I want you to pay really close attention. Okay? Look at the long-term trend on the bond market.
Every time it makes a lower high, it jumps ups and makes a lower high. So, if it just comes up here and doesn't break this area, it's just going to look exactly like this as a continuation.
What we want to see is we want to see the bond market break above this area right here. It first here, this is the first level it needs to break. But then you still you still have this downtrend. We need to break this downtrend. You understand? Let me uh make it a year. Okay. Yeah, we need to we need to break this downtrend right here. So, we need to get up here here.
Um, I'm going to post this for you. This is a move against the main trend. Okay, it's very easy for bonds to come up here and come down here and then this will just looks like a continuation. So, we need to get above this level. Okay, and then we need to get above this level.
I'm going to post this for you guys right now.
My wife is excited. She's getting her new coffee maker today from William Sonoma. She's a she's a big coffee junkie and she hates going to Starbucks.
She loves it, but she hates going there.
Um the long bond is looking very nice this morning and it's above all the junk to the left of us.
But if you zoom out like the chart above, you will notice that we are still in a very strong down strong downtrend.
And this downtrend will only break when we are above where X marks the spot. You understand? So, we have a long ways to go. You too, you like coffee, too, Stacy? Yeah. I'll I'll let you know. I'll I'll let you know.
I'll take a picture of it and I'll show you. I want to make sure it's good first. Um, morning Diana. Good morning. Good morning everybody. Good morning. Um, request analysis on Microsoft and Google. I'll talk about the mags guy yet. Just get give me give me a few minutes. We haven't got there yet.
Please let me um let me get there. I I haven't got to the stocks yet. Let I I do things very methodically. Let me um just uh get in there. I appreciate your enthusiasm, but let me let me get up there. I I will I will talk about it.
Good morning, Carl. Good morning. And thank you for the nice note. I appreciate it.
Okay. So, we have problem here. We have to get past this level. Okay. And that's a major issue. So, in the short term, we're looking really, really great. I mean, really, really great. I mean, this is fantastic. Okay. And this is very nice, but we need to get above here because this is still a downtrend. And this can just be all hopeium opium and then coming back down. But I'll take it, you know, I'll take I'll take it for now at least. Yes. Proposing marriage prematurely. Exactly, Brendan. Exactly.
Hey, you guys can can can teach, you know, you guys can teach this class by now. Um, yeah, Robert, I'll I'll explain it all. I'm not bit I don't drink coffee. I I have um acid reflux from coffee, so I can't drink coffee. Red wine and coffee give me acid reflux. I don't drink alcohol, but when I did, I it might be a juror. You know, Sandy, I don't want to lie to you. I just don't I don't remember. Uh she got it from William Sonoma. She It's like a $900 unit or something like that. But, um I'll uh I'll let you know exactly what it is. I'll let you know exactly what it is. It's supposed to come later today.
I'll take a picture of her drinking a cup of coffee and I'll let you know if it's good. I'll do a full report on it.
[laughter] Good morning, Robert. Good morning, Al.
Good morning, guys. Good morning. So, let's continue. Gold. Gold is coming down. Gold is coming down. We're below this level right here. Now, again, we have we have pretty good support here, but we're we're starting to break down below this level again once here. And the reason for that is because USD is breaking out. Uh let me let me show you.
USD breaking out when bonds are breaking up is not a good sign. Okay. Um this is a problem. Okay.
Okay. So here's our first red flag.
The USD is moving up with the bond market. USD going higher is infla inflationary and puts pressure on metals and foreign economy. Just heads up.
Okay, that's not a great sign that the USD is breaking out. That's not a uh um it's not a good uh um not a good not a this is not good. This is not positive. And it's kind of weird that you're seeing the bond market moving up like this and you're seeing the US dollar moving up like that. Okay?
Because remember you the remember interest rate bond moving up means lower rates. Lower rates usually means stability for the dollar. But again, yeah, I I used to love Chardonnay.
Chardonnay was my uh when I used to drink alcohol, I used to love drinking Chardonnay. Chardonnay and me were like we it it it agreed with me very well, which is kind of ironic. Most people like red wine. Uh crude oil. Crude oil is right at the 200 day moving average.
I think we're going to, like I told you the other day, I think we're going to just kind of consolidate and bounce here. We are already at fair value.
There's nothing else as far as price discovery is concerned. Okay.
Um, okay. There's just no price discovery here. If you guys want to know what the next level is, the next level is we we really are at fair value. I I don't even want to get into this because crude oil is at fair value. And again, I think it's going to stay here and maybe start bouncing up a little bit, but I think we're going to stay in this area for a while. My concern really is the um the USD right now.
All right. Right here.
Crude oil seems to be right at fair value at this time.
There's very little price discovery assuming this agreement with Iran holds. But for now, there's no drama and no reason for oil to rally. I suspect it will find support here and start moving a bit higher or consolidate around this area. I'm posting all this for you guys. And uh just again real quick, here's customer service live from 10 to 1.
Okay, here is yesterday's video from customer service live. Great replay.
Here is their customer service live telegram channel for you guys. Gold is down. Gold is down. Uh and silver's down, too. And here's my telegram channel. Okay.
And here's my VIP room link where I'll be going hot and heavy. Hot and heavy.
um this whole this whole uh this whole time u USD as you could see here it's not breaking it's it's moving higher right here the futures contract okay so crude oil we talked about crude oil a little bit good morning Becky good morning um Bitcoin Bitcoin looks like an A-ine to the downside I would be very very cautious with Bitcoin right now it it's putting pressure and also I don't know if China right now is holding a large position in Bitcoin But China is really breaking down, which is going to put a lot of pressure on gambling stocks and um and ATRs here in the US. But Bitcoin is has an A-line. I'm going to looks to me like it wants to come back down here. Uh Richie and I were talking about it this morning. Uh, Bitcoin futures look like an A-line forming.
Um, I would be cautious with here cautious with crypto with cryptoreated assets to the long side today. Okay, I'm posting this for you guys. I'm doing my job. I'm posting this for you. And again, China China China is breaking down. This is not really great for for this is not really that great. I I suspect maybe the USD has something to do with it. But again, China is breaking down. Really breaking down hard. Look at that.
Okay.
China is breaking down hard.
Be careful of stocks that ha stocks that have strong correlation to their economy like gambling stocks. Okay. Very strong correlation to the economy. Good morning Jeremiah. Good morning Rody. Good to see you my friend. Been getting sending me some really good testimonials lately.
Very nice. Very very nice. Very cool.
Very very cool. Okay.
All right.
Let's continue.
Oh, by the way, silver's doing the same thing. Uh, Brian, I know you like I'm doing this for you cuz you like silver, but silver's really doing exactly what gold is doing, and that's pretty clear with with the dollar coming up here, and we're already above this resistance level. As a matter of fact, let me see here.
uh US dollar. Let me tell you something.
Look at this. Look at this uh 9-month chart. Look at USD right here. See that?
That's a breakout.
That's uh that has me concerned because we're over par right now. And US dollar being above par is not going to really help us here.
And it's a long-term breakout, too.
The breakout on USD while not a big breakout is near long-term breakout levels.
We can be we we we have to be cautious here because a strong USD is not what we want right now. We already have too much pressure uh with crude.
Okay.
Uh, A-ine is one of my services. It's one of my uh A-line is is a is uh how I identify strong pullback opportunities.
Okay. Pullback opportunities. That's what I do. I I'll show you a couple of A-ines in the VIP room today, Gene, if you're interested. Or maybe if we have a You know what? Here's an A-line for you.
Look, [snorts] I don't know why it's not loading, but there we go. There's an A-line for you.
When a stock rallies and then comes down to the 8 day or 15 and then starts coming back up like this, that's an A-line. So, if you look at Bitcoin, they're doing that to the downside right now. coming coming up and then starting to come down again. Just like Dell uh just like Dell is looking to the uh just like Dell is looking to the upside.
That's one of my stocks on my watch list today. I really like Dell right now. I really do. Um Dell is is nice.
But that's what an A-line is in short.
Okay. In short.
Uh, all right.
Let's get into the analysis. Who wants to give the catalysts? No problem, Jean.
No problem. And if you have any other questions or anything like that, you can always call me or customer service or or go to customer service live. Everybody will be able to explain it to you. And again, folks, yeah, Brian, poor silver, right? Um, just be be really really cautious right now. Be really, really, really cautious right now, okay?
Please, please, please, please.
Minnesota, Mac, Mags, chips, infoch, consumer staples, basic materials, crew, Japan, Fed data. Let's see. Fed data, oil, infoch, chips, consumer staples, definitely consumer staples today. Mags, uh, basic materials. You and, um, Belfast, John, you and Minnesota match should start hanging out more often. Uh, Charles, also crude, mags, chips, material, infoch, consumer staples.
Seems like you guys are getting it perfectly.
Um, customer service life is great. They are great. They are great. Yeah, you guys got them all. You guys got them all.
Great job. Great job. Uh, great job, folks. Great. Really good job, man. You guys are uh are uh should be proud of yourselves. Okay, let's go through this.
We have a We Don't Don't Don't forget, we have a report coming out.
Um, and do me a favor. When the report comes out, just you guys usually get it before me. Just give me the the thousands. Give me the the headline number. That's all. How many thousands?
That's all we need and I'll go from there. Okay.
So, um markets are very strong pointing to a sharply higher open, especially technology. Look at that. I mean, the Dow's moving up pretty good, too. Excuse me. As uh President Trump signs a preliminary agreement to agree. That's what it is. It's an agreement to agree.
And I'm not being funny. That's really what it is. Today, you need to only day trade and do some housekeeping.
Exactly. Eagle Beagle. Today's not a day to put on new positions, uh, swing pos that today's not the day. Today's a management day and things like that. Um, just like you said, 226. Okay. So, we're not at 229. We're at 226. That's that's fine.
What were they expecting? They were expecting 225, they got 226. See what I'm saying? Not a lot. Nothing. Look at the bond market. like zero zero reaction.
Thank you, Jason. Thank you. Um, not a lot of not a lot of uh just not a lot of stuff here. Yeah, thank you. Thank you, guys. I got it. 226. No reaction. Look at that. Like dead. [laughter] This is no reaction. So, this is, you know, pretty much what everybody was expecting. So, the numbers are fine.
Numbers are good. Crude oil fell over 2% on Thursday. It doesn't look like it's down 2% this morning. It looks like it's just I guess from last night it was down 2%. It's not down 2% right now. Okay.
The bond market seems to be stable. This doesn't seem to be impacting the bond market. Uh Iran and uh and Trump signed the so-called memorand memorandum of understanding ahead of the scheduled signing 14point framework. I don't want to talk about this because it's very upsetting to me. And there's a really good article, folks. There's a I don't want to get into this. I'm in a good mood today. I don't want to get into politics, but if you guys want to read, there's a really, really great article um in the New York Times. Do you guys want me to post it here? I'll post it for you. And again, I I don't want to get political here, but I'll uh I'll post this article here if I if I still can find it. Hold on.
It's a really good article. If you want to read it, read it. If you don't want to read it, actually, you know what? I can't post it because the link is too big.
Or actually, hold on a second. Maybe I could do it this way.
Okay, hold on. Yeah, I I just don't want to get people I don't want to get people uh all like bent out of shape and all that stuff. But I I'll uh here I'll I'll post it. I'll see if I could post it.
See if you guys can open See if you guys can open this. Okay.
See if it opens. I I don't know if it's going to open or not. Let's see. Yep, it opened. It opened. So, again, folks, I don't want to um I don't want to get into um a big, you know, I don't want to get into this whole uh discussion. You know, it's not it's not it's just not not worth it right now. But um here, let me just post this here.
There we go.
And and please don't don't don't get all political. Uh don't get too political on me. Um I don't want to get I don't want to get political, folks. It's just a very good I think it's a very good article about about about everything.
All right. Uh Magnificent 7 Meta down over 5%. Amazon dropped yesterday. Um, I get I get the New York Times headline when I wake up in the morning. It just shows up in my mailbox. I'm not a big reader of New York Times. I just get their headline because I like to know what's going on in the morning. But, um, but I thought it was I thought it was interesting. Uh, the link doesn't No, you don't need subscription for it, Penny. You don't need a subscription.
It's a free article. It's a free article. It's not a It doesn't need a subscription. It's a free article. Okay.
Um, pending home sales were up really well. See, again, the Fed data that's coming out, the Fed data that's coming out, um the Fed data that's coming out is not bad. Like retail sales, I was expecting retail sales to dump. Retail sales did not dump. Um I was expecting pending home sales to dump. They didn't dump. So, the news um the news is uh the news is very we're not really doing bad. We're doing bad in a couple of things, but I think if the crude oil situation can get better, we can get back um we can get back um to to where we were probably by August.
All right, probably by August, folks.
Again, I'm not going to talk about it. I just posted it there. If you want to read it, read it. If you don't want to read it, don't read it. But it's up to you. All right. As expected, the Federal Reserve rates unchanged. The Federal Reserve F voted ina uh unanimously to keep the federal fund rate in the range.
Uh policy makers said inflation remained elevated. Dropped language referring to potential additional adjustments.
Declared the committee to deliver price stability. Policy makers updated the projection showed that nine officials expect at least one quarter point rate hike this year with rate hike this year with six forecasting at least two.
Another nine anticipated either no move or no rate cut. We're holding steady for the time being. We're we're um we're holding we're holding steady for the time being. Okay. Just holding steady.
Uh Fed announced the formation of multi- Now this is interesting of a multi- multiple task force to review five areas and propose changes to the way the Fed operates. I I don't know why they need this. I mean, it seems to be working just fine. I don't know if they need a task force, but I don't know. I don't know. Um, I don't know. Task Force sounds a little Sounds a little too, you know.
I don't know. I don't know about this task force, you know. Uh, I I I just I don't know. I sounds a little weird to me, but what do I know? Uh, we'll have to see how it goes. You know, a lot of times people feel weird stuff when when when there's something new going on. Uh, but t I don't know why they need a task force. I mean, the task the Fed is the task force. What? Why do they need a task force? The the Fed is a 12 uh is there's 12 of them. They have a task force. All right. Interest rates 67% of no rate change. Remember this was at 90%, now it's 67%. U rate hike in the July meeting hike which now now you see when these numbers start going 60 40 50/50 then there could be a big big move during remember yesterday somebody asked me a good question. do you expect a lot from the bond market? And I said, 'N no, because there's not a lot of expectations for a change. When you when this starts going 60, 40, 50/50, then you have some real big moves uh at the press conference. Okay, so very very interesting. Very very interesting. Um Okay.
Yeah. I I don't I I I just I I don't know what they need the task force for.
I mean, they have the Fed. What do they need the the task force? Okay.
Manufacturing data is coming out today.
Again, I these are just thoughts going through my head. Okay, let's see.
Manufacturing came in not so bad.
Manufacturing came in at 10.3. So, they were expecting 10. Fed data is not coming out um Fed data is not coming out um as bad as uh as as as we all expected. I'm going to tell you that right now. Um, we're bracing for triple witching. Again, holiday and triple witching don't go hand in hand, folks. Listen to me very carefully. Usually, a lot of institutions, let's move on from from this, okay? A lot of institutions are going to be out today. You're going to have a lot of retail traders doing monkey business. When you have retail traders doing monkey business, you have a lot of volatility, but the volatility doesn't sustain itself. institutional volatility sustains itself. Let me explain to you why. If I have a million shares of IBM that I want to buy or Apple, whatever, whatever I want to buy, I'm going to buy them in very small blocks. I showed you this over the last few days. And I'm going to keep going, going, going, going. And it creates momentum. When retail traders when retail traders uh trade, they buy and then they're done. So the so they can they can cause something to go whoop and then the next few days it just comes right back down. So the momentum you're going to see today is going to be largely concentrated in retail buying.
Hence the moves today will have a less chance of sticking than moves that are bigger. Okay.
Uh yeah, Gregory sounds like green span to me. I I I like him holding his cards closer to the chest. that that's more greenspan. One thing I criticized Powell over was Powell always wanted to tell us everything ahead of time, which means the market will not have any price discovery. Um, I like the fact that he's holding clo things close to the chest. I don't have a problem with that. That just reminds me of Greenspan. That's what the Fed is supposed to do. Okay.
So, I don't think that's a I don't think that's a really bad I don't think that's a bad um u anyway. I don't think that's uh I don't think that's a maker or breaker right there. Okay.
Okay.
Uh Jeremy says, "Anyone where can we find replays of customer service live discussing the sniper?" Jeremy, go there. They'll they'll hook you up. Just go there between 10 and 1 and they'll they'll hook you up big time.
Okay, here's their link once again.
Let's continue, folks. We have a we have a strong agenda that we have to get past here.
And by the way, the stock market is moving sideways now for about 20 minutes since the news came out, but not going down. Not going down. [snorts] Um, we got ACN and Kroger coming out. So again, when you have a holiday and you have uh triple witching or quad witching, it's not quad anymore. It's triple witching.
But when you have triple witching, it can be a lot of volatility and a lot of nonsense. So please be careful today.
Please be careful to be very cautious today. Europe is flat, okay, which I'm expecting US to be pretty flat. Um here you could see right here, NikK closed up 1.65. So they're not flat. And China closed down 43, but Europe was pretty flat.
Uh, China closed lower, investors routed of traditional sectors and into technology. Real estate stocks were the biggest losers. AI related stocks climbed after China top security regulator said it would introduce reforms to support more listings of AI companies. Japan closed higher, hit a record high again as sentiment got a boost. Remember, they're a small island.
They need that oil more than you can imagine. Uh, President Trump signed an interimm agreement to end the war with Iran and reopen the Hermas. The deal era uh east concerns about Japan's economy which relied heavily on energy imports from the Middle East. Uh closed above 71,000 for the first time. All right. Uh mags are up over percent. Chip stocks are up. Intel's up. Smith and uh Smith and Wesson is up. They had really good earnings. I love this company to death.
And I'm not talking about the stock. I'm talking about the company. I like the company very much. I like Smith and Wesson very very much. I like what they make. Um, like I like Lulu also very much. Doesn't mean I like the stock. Uh, STLD negative -2%. I think I think Smith and Wesson's going to come up with some really cool stuff in the next decade.
Uh, using AI. Uh, Steel Dynamics is down. All right. Let's talk about the stock market, shall we? Okay. Momentum levels are starting to decrease a little bit. Decrease a little bit, but they're still okay. We still have over 50% here.
um index S&P we have near 60%. This is coming down. This is coming down. It was at 58%. Now it's coming down. We don't want this to go into 52 or 50%. We don't want to see that. The Dow's looking very healthy. The NASDAQ 44 stocks in the NASDAQ 100 are trading below the 200 day moving average. This is still a problem.
We haven't got um uh we haven't got um uh we we we haven't got uh we we haven't got uh strong momentum. We need to step above 70%. So we don't have a lot of foundation still here. Okay.
All right.
Volatility. Um I don't like these red these big bars, but it looks like we're bottoming out here. Um, this is, as I told, as I mentioned to everybody about three weeks ago to a month ago, I would be buying longer term uh, VIX calls about six months out right now because I think we're going to have some volatility. I don't think this deal is going to end up uh, I I think we're in a big big storm, excuse my French, with with u nuclear, which is the whole cause of this war. So, I don't think anything is being resolved. I think this is just a means or a bridge for our administration to to stop saying we're we're close to a deal. We're close to a deal. We're close to a deal. I think that's all this is because we're not close to any deal. Um anyways, put to call ratio is fairly straightforward.
Nothing really nothing really crazy there. Um actually, let me let me point let me draw uh put this for you guys here.
Looks like we have a nice base here.
This is a good area to buy those. When when VIX can't gets to right here about 16, that's a good time to buy those options. Let me um and folks, please let's not get into deep political discussions. I think everybody understands here that I'm talking about everything and only in the way it affects the stock market. Um, looks like a bottom here. Okay, volatility VIX looks to be bottoming out here around 16 around low 16 level is a good time to initiate a long-term VIX call.
6 months is longterm. Okay, right around these levels. If you listened to me last time and you bought them around these levels, you would have done pretty well selling them over here. Okay. Yes, six months out VIX calls. Yes, I would uh only if we dropped right here. I would actually wait till Monday cuz you have a long weekend. But I would buy them around right here. Right around the 16 level somewhere right in this ballpark right here in this vicinity right there.
Okay. All right. Put to call ratios fairly neutral right now.
I need to get into the stocks portion.
You know, I'm looking at the clock, but Matt is under the weather. He's working from home. I don't have to rush. So, I could actually be a little late to spend a little more time with you right now.
Just realize that.
Um, put to call ratio is fairly even right now. No major bias between call and put buyers.
Okay. It'll be We'll see how that changes on Monday with the with the option expiration. You should eagle beagle. I would be in the in the uh November, December, maybe even just FYI.
Okay, Mags. Okay, I told you guys two days ago here live on this broadcast that I believe we're going to fill the gap and come back down here. We're now at the 200 day moving average and and we this is a very very very strong support level for the VIX. Uh excuse me, for the MAGS because you have 1 2 3 four support levels here. I think this is going to hold and we're just going to kind of move around move around here for a little bit. Oops. Excuse me.
Okay, I think we're just going to kind of hang out around here for a while. Um, I don't think we're going to break this.
If we break this, we're going to be in deep dudu because that's a very strong support level. So, I think for now it's going to hold and we're going to stay pinched between the 200, 100, and the 50-day line. Let me post this for you.
Market's still looking pretty good.
Coming up pretty well. Okay, so I think we're going to stay in this area. We do not want to break down. Okay, so let me post this for you. It's good to keep a record of everything I say. Mags um have very strong support at the current level. There's four support areas there.
Um, I think we are going to chop.
Somebody asked me about Google and Amazon and all that. Well, I'm answering your question indirectly right now.
Okay.
Um, folks, please give me a break. I'm going to I'll I'll answer all your I'm answering all your questions and I'll get into it more. Please just give me a few minutes. We we're just getting into the stock portion now. I do everything like this. So, we don't want to break uh we we're going to chop around between the 200 day and the 50-day line. Uh be careful if we start breaking breaking this support level. There's not much below us as you can see.
So, I think we're going to I think the mags are going to stay a little stable, maybe bounce a little bit today, but uh if they start breaking this red level right here, this uh 6490 the 6490 level, be careful. There's nothing here till all the way down like down to here. Okay? So, please, please, please be careful, be careful, be careful. Keep an eye on this. And I'm not suggesting it. It's not showing any signs of breakage right now, but I'm saying that if it does, actually, it's showing the opposite. It's showing that it wants to stay here. But my saying is if it does, this is not looking great.
Okay, folks. Again, I'm just trying to I'm trying to give you the best most objective analysis available anywhere.
I'm not trying to sugarcoat anything.
I'm not trying to I have very little uh tolerance for BS and nonsense.
the spy is. Do you guys remember when we were here? I told you we're going to come back to the 8day and I said, I don't think we're going to really go lower. I think we just need to come back to the 8day and and go from there. Do you guys remember me saying this on Monday, Tuesday, and yesterday morning how we need to get to the 8day EMA and and and I don't want people to think that we're like going down hard. We just need to get to the 8day EMA. There's actually a pretty good uh trend line right here developing, but we're at right at the 8day EMA right now. Does anybody not remember me saying that for the last 3 days that we need to get back to the 8day EMA on the spy?
Uh Rul, you don't remember me saying that? Would you like me to show you a screenshot of me writing it?
Because I could show you a screenshot if you'd like. Who does not remember me saying that? I've been saying it every day for the last 3 days. We need to get back to the 8day EMA on the spy.
All right. Here.
I mean, I I could literally go back to Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and I could show you that I've been saying that for the last 3 days.
Yeah. Well, there you go. You You guys remember? Yeah, there you go. You're You guys all remember. Okay. Got to watch the movie. Uh, [snorts] looks like Clyde was right. We are now right at the 8day EMA on the spy like we told you on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday morning uh during the pre-market morning show and a VIP room at noon.
Okay, you guys remember? Okay.
All right, you all heard it. Of course, I told everybody this many me for the last 3 days. For the last 3 days. Okay, I told you guys the QQQ would get back to the um 50-day EMA. And look at what happened yesterday. We got back to the EMA. Now, we need to bounce.
I was talking, remember I was talking about the A-line and how it would look when we were and I told you how we need to get above this level and how we need to the too much too fast. The gap needs to get filled right there.
Just like we we talked about last 3 days, uh QQQ is now at the 8day EMA and needs to bounce.
Okay, SMH SMH hit that 8 day MA or like the day after it went up and is already bouncing. This is kind of what I'm expecting the rest of the market to look like, assuming things go right. Let me just put this. So, we're already at we we bounced all the way already on Tuesday. We were already there. I told you on Monday, and we were already there on Tuesday. And see how we bouncing.
This is what I'm expecting the spy to look like to bounce along this line right here. I don't want to break this low. We don't want to break this line, okay, on the spy. We don't want to break this line. If we do, we're going to the 50-day. Okay.
Yeah, you guys remember. You guys remember? All right. Good, good, good.
Um, and let's look at RSP. I haven't looked at RSP yet.
And there we are. There's your 50-day moving average right there. Uh, there's your there's your pullback right there.
And remember, I said we're going to come back into this area right here. And look at where we're at. There you are.
Like magic. You know, it really does pay to come here because I told you this would happen on Monday. Monday. Monday.
And here we are back in our range right here.
Clyde also predicted we would go back into our range on the RSP and here we are.
All right. I think we're going to bounce from here. We need to bounce from here.
We need to bounce up Bob. Yeah, I just wanted to make sure I wasn't losing my mind, but it seems by the reaction here by the 300 people that just says yes. Uh I Yeah, you guys definitely remember that. Okay, great, great, great. Let's just take a look at By the way, the Russell 2000 was the strongest index yesterday. Um and then it went down and look 8day EMA and we're back there. This is exact. And now we should be bouncing up this line here. Let me uh draw this for you here.
this trend line right here. Okay. Should keep this trend line.
Okay. I'm having too much fun with you guys today. And it's great because I don't have to rush out of here. I could spend as much time as I want. Um Russell 2000, same thing. Came down to the 8day EMA and is now bouncing.
Nothing new anywhere. Nothing new pretty much anywhere. Okay, now folks, let's get into the unpleasantries.
Um, and I do you remember on Monday, do you guys remember on Monday we had a long come to Jesus talk and we talked about the uh and I'm using I'm not using that in a in a in a in a nasty way. It's just a figure of speech. You guys remember coming in on Monday? I told you we had 325 stocks and then we gapped up and then we had 304 and I made a big deal out of it. This was on this is coming into Monday. Look.
So this is Monday 304, right? Look at Monday 304 here. This is coming into Monday. Monday morning. This is what it looked like.
Then we had a gap up and then Tuesday morning when it was still said Monday because remember the market doesn't open it's one day back we were at 304 on the low end I got really I got really upset because we went from 52 to 109 while the market went from here to here and we and I had this explanation for you and I told you on Monday I'm very nervous because this right here is telling me that momentum went down. This is going back onto Monday. Momentum levels are going down.
Now look at it right now. Today 233 stocks breaking down coming into this morning and only a 100 stocks breaking up. So we started the week. We started this week. We started this week. Yeah, this is everything that I've talked about. Everything that I've talked about.
We started this week with 300 stocks going up and 50 stocks going down. We're ending this week with a 100 stocks going up and 233 going down. And folks, it's all right here.
This is See, right now it's showing Wednesday because the market hasn't started yet. So on Monday, it was it was showing s Friday, right? And you could see right here that this is what I'm talking about right here. 3:25. See, Friday, June 12th, that's that's Monday morning. Okay. And here, that's Monday morning.
325 and 52. Pretend it's Monday morning.
And now Thursday afternoon, 105 and 233.
So, do you understand? Momentum levels are not really help. There's not that much momentum to the upside right now.
There's not. But there's plenty of momentum to the downside. Hence, I told you guys I told you guys that uh that uh uh this morning when we first came in here that it was much easier to find stocks to the short side than it was to find stocks to the long side. Now, when we look at sectors, let's take a look at see how they've done over the last 5 days. chips, biotech, industrial tech, but look where communication is and look where consumer discretionary is still at the bottom. So, you still have that divergence. That divergence between hard tech and soft tech never um never relieved itself. And that's one of the reasons why I want you to buy those VIX options.
Now, I hope you guys listened to everything I just said right now because I just gave you a really solid analysis, okay? a really solid analysis. So you see consumer discretionary communication. This is chips. This is chips. This is chips. Thi I want to see this and this come up here. Okay? That's what I want to see. So I all I'm all I'm trying to say is please please please be very very um please be very very cautious. Be very cautious. Um and understand that we're not breaking out right now. We're just we're just consolidating around the 8day EMA. Okay, we're just consolidating around the 8day EMA. And I told you yesterday when we were opening here, we're probably going to test the 8day, which exactly what we did. Okay, I don't glad I'm going to be late today, but I don't have to go anywhere, so I'm not going to be that late today. Spy, let's look at spy levels. Okay, let me delete these.
Let me start from scratch.
I'd love to see us break the high today.
This uh 747 area. That would be fantastic.
Okay, folks. I haven't got even given you the top stocks yet. Bear with me, okay? We'll get there in a in a second spy levels HD quality.
I wonder what ever happened to Carla.
Carla, are you still here? Are you still visiting visiting every morning? Just say hello. I don't want to pick on you.
I just want to I want to see if you're still coming coming in here.
Uh QQQ, we don't really need to do all that much. We just need to folks be careful of the 731 level. The 731 level. I got to tell you, my levels from last night actually look pretty good here.
Here.
There.
right there. Okay, this is starting to make good sense here. Be careful of the 73194 level. I'm telling you right now, because there's a nasty gap right there.
Um, here I put this here. Be careful of that level.
Be careful of the uh 731 94 level. There's a uh gap below that.
Okay, be be careful because look, you see this? If we break, we go right to this level. That's the f like the 8mm level. We want to stay above this level.
Okay, we do. We do owe her. Thank you. I just wanted her I just wanted to say hi to her. I don't want to I don't want to like pick on her. I just simply wanted to say hello. Um, SMH Okay, I misspelled quality. Hold on.
There you go.
Oh, there you are, Carla. Good morning.
Good morning. Just again, I just wanted to say hello. I'm not here to pick on you. IWM. Uh, need to erase these.
Let me ask you guys a question. What would you say if I started doing this for the bond market instead of if I switched the bond market for the uh Russell 2000? I don't want to do like 50 of these a day, but what do you think if I switched switch this to the bond market to the uh TLT instead of Russell 2000? Cuz I think the bond market levels are a lot more important and I don't want to I don't have time to do a lot more. But tell me what you guys think about me switching cuz I I don't think a lot of people trade the Russell, but the bond market is really important. Um, so let me ask you guys what you think about that. I'm I'm I'm not I don't want to pick on on on anybody. I just I'm asking all of you guys uh what you think about me doing the bond market instead of doing the Russell 2000 cuz I think it's because I don't think a lot of folks trade the Russell and I could spend my time on the bond market and the bond market is much more important that well that's why I'm asking Brendan that's why okay you I figured you guys would like that idea okay I figured you guys would like that idea okay TLT I'm going to choose bonds exactly exactly exactly That's the reason why. All right. All right. Good.
I I thought you guys would say that, but I wanted to uh I didn't want to create a mutiny or anything. So, I'll do that because I don't get a lot of questions on the Russell 2000. But the bond market is huge. Uh I trade the Russell and the SP gets wanky.
Why not? If I have time, I'll do both.
But but um here, I'll tell you what.
Since I'm not in a rush today, I'll do both. But I I usually don't, you know, maybe we'll do this. One day we'll do the bonds and one day we'll do we'll we'll see. We'll see how it goes. But um I think a lot more people would would get benefit from me doing the bond market analysis just just the p just uh my personal observation like if we break this 8687 level it's going to have a lot bigger impact on the market than the Russell 2000 here. IWM HD levels. Okay.
All right. Let's um here.
Be careful of this 80 867 8687 level.
Be cautious with the uh 8687 level to the downside.
If we break it break, it will put pressure on the market.
Okay.
Uh it's TLT.
Or maybe we'll just do one day one and the other one the other one. You know, we'll kind of see how it goes. Streaming everything about the pre-market about I love the way you're constantly streamlining everything about the premarket and the programs. Thank you, Angie. I appreciate it.
Well, I just wanted to make sure I I thought it would be better because there's much more um it's much more this is much more beneficial to us than the than um this I I mean I look at this all day long. I don't look at the Russell unless it's outperforming something.
Okay. Uh let me give you guys top stocks and then I'll I'll send you on your way.
BSX.
Now, I'll be honest with you. I had an option on this that I bought on Monday and I made about uh 13% on it. Should have I should have gotten a deeper in the money option. I still like this and I gave it to you yesterday as a I've been giving it to you as a bonus trades all the time. CMCSA, look at the shorts on my short list this morning. Check out how good they look. Another good short, right? Comcast.
Uh TTD, another short.
Look at that. Look at that price action.
Yeah. Let me tell my buddy about it. One second.
Okay. Uh, that's a nice look right there.
CPRT.
That's a nice nice look right there.
Notice nice gliding stocks. Nice glue.
Everything is good. Um, Chewy.
Yeah. Yeah. I should have I should have done uh I should have gotten a little further in the money. Chewy's looking good.
All right. That's a nice look, Chewy.
Nice. Nice. Nice. Nice look right there.
It was very easy to find shorts this morning. That's not a a good a good uh a good thing.
This is getting a little choppy. I I like this. I like this CSGP. I really like these stocks. PDD, I've given you this one many, many times, many times. PDD into it. I'm telling you, there's a lot of good shorts today. That's a nice short. It's a really nice short.
Minnesota Matt 25%. Yay.
Yeah, she's here. Solair, she's she's there. Um, all right, let's continue.
Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Zillow group. Nice look. See, no. Um, there's Liz.
All right. You want me to look at DOC? I only have a minute or two left, but I'll look at it. No, no, not yet. Notice every stock that I'm picking has a really nice nice structure. Really, really nice structure to the downside.
This is I mean this is not bad if it breaks when it goes into the gap right here gets below the 200 but not yet.
Okay, long side arm. The the long side today did not look amazing. Okay, the long side did not look amazing. It looked a little what's the word I'm looking at it? Structurally it just it looked a little messy. Um Dell looks Dell looks really good.
Let me look at DD dog real quick.
DDOG. As long as DD Dog um gets above this level in the next day or two, 239, it's going to look good. It's still it's still near the foundation here. I wouldn't touch it today. I would wait for it to get above that level if you're long. BNY Bank of Melon. Beautiful chart.
Uh oh, thanks Penny for trying to help. I appreciate that. Very kind of you. Very nice of you. Thank you. BNY U AMN.
That's a nice nice look. Again, it wasn't that easy to find good-looking stocks today.
A10, H, NBIS.
Okay, let's continue. NBIS hood.
Okay.
Hood.
hymns.
Um, hymns needs him needs um to go above the 200. Hims is not ready yet. It needs to go above the 200. Okay.
Morgan Stanley.
Morgan Stanley needs to uh cool off here.
It's not ready. It's a little overextended, but I do like what I'm seeing with financials.
APO, nice look. And Caterpillar.
Again, a lot of these stocks are are starting to get too far away from the 8day.
Okay. So, be careful. Be careful with that. All right. Be very, very careful with that.
Um, that's all I've got for you guys.
So, here's the deal. The market is going to be I'm expecting the market to be choppy, but I'm not expecting the move to last. We may see a lot of choppiness.
I do like what I'm seeing in the broad market right now. This is a very nice rally, but again, this there's a lot of folks that are out of town right now, and you may be seeing big swings today.
My suggestion is to use this volatility to day trade. I wouldn't be using this volatility to put on too many swing trades over the weekend. Um I'm holding a couple of positions right now, but um I don't want to hold too much over this weekend, especially long weekend. I'm going to be looking for some income trades maybe to put you guys in today.
[snorts] But uh please, please, please be very, very cautious and don't fall for the banana and the tailpipe. use this opportunity in the morning to liquidate positions that are moving your way and come back and buy them at a better price. That's what I would do.
Okay, folks. If you missed if you missed uh any part of this, here is the YouTube link for this show. I'll post it here.
Uh I went an hour and 15 minutes today.
If you missed any part of the morning show, here's a replay. And boy oh boy, it was a good one.
All right, there's the link, folks. Have a wonderful, wonderful day. I'll see you later. And please be careful. Don't fall for the banana in the tailpipe. Use this as a means to liquidate existing positions and buy them cheaper. I don't think this rally is going to has a lot of legs in light of the weekend right now, okay? And in light of what I'm seeing, I I want to be wrong. I I'd rather be wrong and the and the rally have legs, but I just I I'm I'm very cautious about this move on option expiration than on holiday. Okay. Um but I do like the bond market. Keep your eye on the bond market today. If the bond market keeps going up, hey, maybe we'll get a gift today. Have a great weekend and I'll see you at noon today. Um by the way, here is the link. Here is the link for the VIP room at noon. Okay, we got a lot of good stuff on the agenda and I hope you all have a wonderful, wonderful weekend if I don't if I don't talk to you before then. Bye everybody.
Have a great day. Thanks Cam. Thanks Gustavo for all the help. I'll see you guys later. And here is their link as well. There you go. We're going to end the show here. Bye everybody. Have a great day. Bye.
Mia, that was a good show.
Related Videos
'WORK CUT OUT FOR HIM': Fed's new chair faces major challenge
FoxBusinessClips
742 views•2026-06-16
Best Bank Bonuses — June 2026 (One Pays 81% APY!)
NathanielBooth
174 views•2026-06-16
Jeffrey Christian: Gold, Silver, PGMs — My Summer Price Outlook
InvestingNews
911 views•2026-06-16
06/15/26 Metropolitan Council Committee: Budget & Finance
MetroNashvilleNetwork
160 views•2026-06-16
Asian Markets Trade Higher Despite A Weak Close On Wall Street; Flat Start On D-Street Today?
CNBC-TV18
573 views•2026-06-18
Mass Exit: Why Americans Are Turning Their Backs on These 13 States
DiscoverTheCities2025
2K views•2026-06-14
മഴ വെച്ച് പണം ഉണ്ടാക്കാം! ️| Trade Rain Futures on NCDEX
ShariqueSamsudheen
53K views•2026-06-17
US Gasoline Prices Below $4 a Gallon for First Time Since April
ntdtv
206 views•2026-06-16











