The Formula for Bitcoin Network & Price Growth: Power Law

Added: 2026-05-17

[00:00:00]What is the Bitcoin power law? Here's the simplest way I can explain it.

[00:00:03]There's a pattern in nature that shows up pretty much everywhere. Cities follow it, the human body's development follows it, the internet's adoption follows it, and it's the pattern of things that grow slowly, steadily, and end up basically indestructible. Rome has been around for thousands of years. Cities survived wars, plagues, disasters, and they keep growing. That's the power law. Now, compare that to most things that humans built. A company has a hot product, scales fast, peaks, and then kind of fades away or dies. The average company on the S&P 500 today lasts less than 20 years. That is not the power law. So, why do cities last and most companies don't? Because cities are networks that grow organically, mostly bottom-up.

[00:00:49]Millions of people freely choose to live there, build there, trade there. There's no single point of failure. And the more people who join, the more valuable the whole thing becomes. That's why cities don't burn out. They compound. Now, you already know Bitcoin is a network, but here's what's even more interesting. My guest has studied Bitcoin's price chart for years, and he found that Bitcoin isn't just any network, it's growing like a city. It is following the power law. And over the long arc, more than 15 years of data, Bitcoin has tracked this pattern with stunning accuracy. Now, in the short term, Bitcoin still goes up and down. Wars, banking crises, market crashes, those move the price day-to-day. Giovanni calls those oscillations, like the weather. The power law is the climate. It's the long-term path the price keeps coming back to. And here's why people are paying attention. The power law points to a million dollars per Bitcoin in about eight years, and 10 million dollars per Bitcoin in 20. And Giovanni puts it at 90% confidence that's going to happen. Not because he's guessing, but because the data has held up so far.

[00:01:55]Companies die, cities live forever, and Bitcoin is growing like a city.