Why millions are choosing not to have children | The Population Bust

本站添加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:07][music] demography is one factor among many that has [music] an impact on uh states uh power and status in the in the international uh [music] system. Larger countries have more power.

[00:00:27]They have more people. Their economies are larger.

[00:00:32]There are also technology. Uh there is investment [music] in people.

[00:00:37]So it matters.

[00:00:40]The world population is likely to stabilize around 9 or 10 billion and then start to [music] decline.

[00:00:49]but changes very slowly and as such you can talk about a demographic tsunami.

[00:00:55]It's very powerful but moving [music] very very slowly.

[00:01:08]Replacement level fertility is a little bit over two children per woman.

[00:01:14]So you need to have [music] a fertility level which is around 2.1.

[00:01:18]That's essentially the number of children you need to have in a population for the population to become stable over time. So you're replacing the adults with new children.

[00:01:37]Fertility rates in most of the developed world is now below what we call replacement level which is a little bit more than two children per woman. In Western Europe, fertility is at 1.5. In some countries, you have fertility down to one child per woman. And that's much lower uh than what you need in order to keep the population stable.

[00:02:03][music] There are less [music] and less children. So with less and less children in our city, there are less pupils in [music] our school.

[00:02:28]Our budget is based on pupil numbers. So falling pupil numbers means a falling budget. [music] In real terms, every pupil is worth a certain amount of money. It depends on where you are in the country. somewhere between three and three and a half thousand pounds per pupil per year. And back in 2017, we were 380.

[00:02:49]>> In the 8 years since, we've seen that pupil numbers decline [music] to 340. No, no, no.

[00:03:00]In >> today's lesson, we're going to be learning about something that doesn't really happen anymore anywhere really, not least of all in ancient Egypt. But what could be happening in this picture? Ola, >> I'm mummifying body.

[00:03:15]>> You're mum mummifying a body. Brace yourselves. It's a little bit gory. So going from 380 pupils to 340 last year, that's 40 child reduction.

[00:03:31]That's about a 15% reduction in real terms in uh in our school budget. We'll we'll take both of his lungs out of the body. They're going to go into a pot as well. Remember, he can't feel anything.

[00:03:46]He's now dead.

[00:03:48]Annually there is um discussion with local authority and school leaders about the number of children in the city.

[00:03:57]We've been informed that the number of pupils in our city has been falling and falling and continues to fall.

[00:04:05]>> Healthy lunch, loads of fruit, nice finished almost. Almost >> I'm really concerned for the future. I'm I'm really concerned for my livelihood.

[00:04:17]the livelihood of my team. What happens to our city? What happens to our family of schools?

[00:04:24]Doesn't look positive.

[00:04:27]The thought of losing our school feels unthinkable. But ultimately, if there are no pupils or [music] less pupils, something has to be done to sustain the the children that there will be.

[00:04:45]Since 2008, when millennials became adults, certain things became incredibly expensive.

[00:04:57]>> [music] >> The complications of buying a home, creating a family, and the expectation of of what family life should look like [music] economically is also obviously a pressure with the cost of living crisis, the the um inflationary house prices, the um cost of tertiary education.

[00:05:20]And what that's done [music] is essentially destroyed this notion of [music] the two generation classic family that we understood [music] in the postwar years. And perhaps we thought we would just echo and mirror and it hasn't happened like that for [music] millennials and it won't happen like that for Gen Z in the west.

[00:05:45]I think probably yeah, traditionally people would have had kids that are kind of like earlier on in their relationship.

[00:05:53]>> We were probably held back a little bit by other circumstances to to actually starting, you know, starting our own family.

[00:06:01]>> I'm a teacher and in Brighton there's been a lot of kind of changes in schools and in my school there were redundancies made.

[00:06:11]we were reducing from two classes in a year group to one class in a year group and that's because of the falling birth rate here. Um the nearest school to us has just closed um this summer as well and I was probably quite concerned like if we'd have had children that it would reduce my chance of being at work. I guess our research looks specifically at the UK using a data set called the Generations and Gender Survey that specifically looks at millennials and Gen Z. Their intention may be, you know, a constrained choice out of pessimism about the future or um insecurity about their financial futures.

[00:06:58]Having our own house or apartment to live in obviously comes down to cost and where we live in Brighton cuz properties are so expensive. It's something that took us a quite a while to actually get into the point where we could buy our own place.

[00:07:15]>> In the UK, uh there [music] is still cultural kind of norm about being a homeowner um before having a [music] child. you know, most people who have children go on to have two or three. So, that's difficult [music] to fit into a one-bedroom um flat with our incomes. It means [music] that it's going to be even more difficult to get that extra space to potentially have more children in the future and will again influences that decision.

[00:07:45]>> That's quite mad, isn't it? That that's how much even to rent a one bed. it will be difficult for us to stay in Brighton and then have another child and expand our family. [music] We have talked about potentially looking at other places at a later point, but actually if we can't afford to live anywhere else in Brighton, we might actually have to bring that forward.

[00:08:09]>> In this life, we don't always get what we would like. And you know, [music] there's a gap between ideal and reality.

[00:08:14]people's ideals and preferences are still [music] about two children you know in the UK right now [music] the patterns are still unfolding right so when people look at current trends if people you know end [music] up doing what they say they will intend to according to our survey data then yeah we will see sustained fertility decline >> unfortunately in the last academic year three schools in our city have have closed their doors to pupils, which means that there are communities within our city that uh potentially don't have a school that's local to uh to the people that live there. And and that's that's a disaster.

[00:09:04]As soon as I started there, there was a realization that pupil numbers across Brighton were falling.

[00:09:13]The council were definitely aware of the issue and had been aware for many years.

[00:09:18]So we had estimates of how many children [music] were in our area of the city and how many school places there were and it was very obvious there weren't enough children to fill all those school places.

[00:09:28]There was always probably something quite drastic needed to happen.

[00:09:32]Obviously you hope it's not going to be your school, but I knew our pupil numbers had certainly hadn't been rising. I knew our budget was difficult.

[00:09:43]We were invited to a council meeting and were told in that meeting that they wanted to close our school. We were quite shocked that we'd had no warning around that. It was quite it was a very difficult meeting to be at.

[00:09:59]We understood why that a decision was being made to close schools in the [music] city.

[00:10:04]It was quite a shocker to think that it was, you know, I've come back for a school year and then within a year these children are not going to have a school and it's something we weren't expecting.

[00:10:14]So we felt very strongly that we needed to put up a fight.

[00:10:24]>> So we did a protest march. We made a video. We did various interviews for TV and radio. We did lots [music] of activities just to draw attention to the plight of the children.

[00:10:39]December 2024 as [music] we shut the school and walked down these steps was the last time I was here.

[00:10:47]So this is one of the posters we made for our campaign. Uh we [music] petitioned, we spoke at every council meeting that we could. We did everything we [music] could to to make it not happen.

[00:11:00]school.

[00:11:03]>> Frustratingly, our protest didn't really feel that they had a great impact.

[00:11:11]>> For me, a community was, you know, torn apart and [music] those children went to 23 different schools across the city. It was [music] really hard. you feel you're really responsible as a headteer for everybody and although you know it's not your fault, you begin to feel some of it is your fault and you do feel at times that you've let people down.

[00:11:33]>> We were really lucky. Um it just seems really sad to see it in this state now.

[00:11:42]Our research specifically looks at [music] fertility intentions among young people across time.

[00:11:54]It's not [music] like suddenly, you know, the idea of a family is like repulsive, but the lower intention [music] shows that there's, you know, some kind of um has reluctance.

[00:12:08]One of my closest friends, she was speaking to me yesterday about what's [music] happening politically in the world and how every day when all these things happen in the news, it's actually having an impact on her decision to have kids or not because she doesn't like what's going on in America, what's going on in the UK, it's making her question whether she wants to raise kids in a world like that. I'm definitely terrified about how my kids would be raised up with what's happening politically. deciding how I protect my children from something like that.

[00:12:37]>> In my entourage, which is a couple of generations back um even then in our time, you know, we knew the state of the world a bit uh precarious, let's just say, with the nuclear issue and all that, but we had our kids and I think we were bringing them up as best we could.

[00:12:54]I mean, I think there's a there's a sense of this sort of slow postindustrial kind of polarization or decline and you see the local ups and downs, but I I think the state of the world is not good. It's not inviting.

[00:13:09]>> I don't see myself having kids because I don't want to personally bring a kid into a world like this. The environmental estate of the world in maybe 50 years is going to be 10 times or 50 times worse. I believe that humans are parasites to the earth. The earth is doing everything it can to get rid of us. And the longer we go on, the worse it's going to get. And so my personal moral belief is that we shouldn't carry it on. I don't want to carry it on.

[00:13:45]>> Climate change is obviously another factor. [music] Gen Z increasingly aware of the sort of negative consequences of creating a human being. that, you know, gets through a certain number of nappies and that all goes to landfill and, [music] you know, creates a certain amount of of um CO2 emissions just by its very existence.

[00:14:04]This sense of overpopulation is a new conversation when it comes to having kids and is a legitimate one. But I think also what's really driving all of this is this notion of you've got it's become increasingly legitimate not to have any children and let's not talk about being childless. Let's talk about being child-free. Okay. These two factors [music] rising individualism and the changing economics have meant that actually women don't want to have as many kids [music] and also they can't afford to have as many kids.

[00:14:41]But it's increasingly happening globally.

[00:14:55][music] Money, how does your mom feel about your choice? [music] Exactly. My choice. It's funny how in Kenya, everyone has an opinion about your womb. But the truth is so simple. The right to parent or not to parent belongs to you and only you.

[00:15:18]Whether you choose motherhood now, later or not at all.

[00:15:26]I am a content creator, storyteller, film lover based in Nairobi.

[00:15:32]I am a big believer in advocating for choice especially within the context of the African woman. Women are the only ones who have a proper knowledge of their own life and an understanding of what they want to do with their lives.

[00:15:46]If someone says she is not ready be it financially, mentally, emotionally that's a responsible choice.

[00:15:55]My content is generally aimed at young women who are maybe questioning themselves or just want to know that choice is a thing. When I was growing up, we didn't know that like things like having kids was a choice. We just knew that was a natural step of life. [music] But with time, you start realizing, oh, most of these things are just choices.

[00:16:16]But no one talks to to us about them as a choice. Forget what society wants.

[00:16:21]Forget what your mother wants. Just be sure it's what you want.

[00:16:28]We live in a society that says that the kids belong to the community. Regardless of your situation or what's happening in your life, you're just supposed to see it as a blessing. [music] largely it's still an expectation that you should be having kids [music] especially by the time you're hitting your late 20s getting into your 30s to the point where like there's conversations about like when you're in your 30s and [music] you don't have kids it's like something is wrong with you first time I ever said I don't see myself having kids I was 10 and we were just like having a random family gathering [music] and we were talking about the future and I was being asked oh what do you want to do when you grow up and I was talking about how I want to just like travel the world and see everything that's out there. And one of my aunts asked [music] a question like, "Okay, so when you're doing all this, where were your kids?" And I was just like, "What kids?" Now [music] when I was 18 and I really sat down with that question and I was like, "Why would I want to have kids?"

[00:17:25]And then now from that [music] moment, I just started being like, "Oh, I guess I'm not going to have children." And over the years, it's [music] like I've just become stronger in my belief. and then was like, "Oh, maybe I should make this permanent."

[00:17:37]>> 7 months ago, I got my tube started.

[00:17:40]So, I asked on Instagram for any questions that, you know, anyone had about the tubeigation.

[00:17:48]>> Basically, a tubleation is a permanent procedure that stops you from being able to conceive the natural way. Let me just say that [music] I got the procedure because I wanted to be 100% sure that I would not uh become pregnant. And two, it was because I [music] wanted to be the one who's in control of that choice for myself. Do you have any regrets? Absolutely not. I do not have a single regret. Why would I regret a procedure that makes it possible for me to live my life the way I want to without having to worry?

[00:18:23][music] When I started talking about my choice online, um I was getting a lot of push back from women. I was getting um a lot of um oh, you're so westernized. This is a western concept. Um I was even told, "Oh, you should just consider finding yourself a white man because they're the only ones who will um [music] you know, put up with this nonsense. This is very unAfrican."

[00:18:50]But then the funny thing is also like I found a lot of other women who are just talking about like I feel the same way.

[00:18:56]I just don't know how to articulate it.

[00:19:01][laughter] >> For me that was just like a reassurance.

[00:19:03]I was like oh there's more of us and just talking about like how we never used to see this growing up >> and then I was like oh wow so there's space to have these conversations. No, it's not relax.

[00:19:16]>> Research has already established that there's a link between fertility rate [music] and gender uh equality.

[00:19:27]>> The more women have access [music] to educations, the less children they will have because access [music] to educational education, especially secondary education, really decreases or it delays marriages.

[00:19:41]Statistically 1% increase in education for a girl can lead to a higher income.

[00:19:47]Right? [music] And there's a saying in African context, if you educate a girl, you educate the whole society.

[00:19:57]With more information, you make different choices, right? So with a lot more information, with a lot more development, [music] Kenyan women are learning more about what it means to be a parent, what it means to have children. And I think that's something that people are slowly [music] just examining and questioning as time goes by. So there's been a [music] development in what people think about in terms of [music] having kids.

[00:20:30]>> I do know [music] a couple of women who have had the procedure done.

[00:20:35]If you see stuff like this happening in Kenya, [music] trust you me, I know for sure like the rest of the continent is conversations are happening. So I think that's something to also consider when we think about the the larger African context. [music] Africa is [music] mirroring the declining trend of fertility.

[00:20:56]If you look at the whole region used to be before which was the birth rate was at [music] 6%. Now the average birth rate is stands at uh uh 4.3%. [music] Which is a a drastic decline.

[00:21:10]Urbanization plays a key role in terms of this decline [music] of fertility in many African countries. As people move to urban [music] cities, they adapt their attitude. Gender norms change.

[00:21:24]Access to education even better as well.

[00:21:27][music] And the level of income compared to the rural places is also better.

[00:21:33]Many African [music] countries actually have some of the highest urbanization rates. Nigeria right now the urbanizations rates [music] stand at more than 50%. And we know that by 2050 this going to increase to 66%. Right?

[00:21:48]The pace of this urbanization [music] that is happening in Africa now is increasing over these past 50 [music] years, but it still is not as drastic as we observe in China and other part of Asia.

[00:22:03]Now we are freer than ever to pursue higher education, have our own career, money, place, we have hobbies, female friendships. When we come back home, the house is clean and peaceful. Why would any woman waste her time, energy raising a manchild? It's almost impossible for a guy to provide for his whole family. It needs both of the parents to work. And when the wife comes back home, the husband still expects her to clean, to cook, to take on the emotional labor.

[00:22:27]Like, who wants kids?

[00:22:29]>> China is already starting to see the beginning of its population decline because of the one child policy that uh was introduced in the 1980s. uh and China now has a fertility just above one which is less than half of what they need to replace the population.

[00:22:48]China has lifted the one child policy uh but we're not seeing a uh a major increase in fertility uh in China.

[00:22:58]It's not surprising and it has to do with preference for smaller families uh lower fertility and in China you also have higher uh levels of education among women. you have higher levels of labor force participation. So many more women are working in China and this has huge implications for China for social uh stability probably in the future and is one of the largest social experiments that we're witnessing uh right now.

[00:23:28]India is another case uh which is very interesting where you've seen major decline in fertility in recent years in the southern part where you [music] have had declining fertility for a long time this is largely a result of the investment in education for [music] women in the southern parts of India overall of course it makes it easier to reduce the pressure on natural resources [music] with fewer people.

[00:23:55]So there are both uh individual level and and uh if you like societal level uh positive effects of of reducing fertility.

[00:24:06]But there are also some very significant benefits to having stable populations that can ensure that there is political and social and [music] economic stability.

[00:24:18]You see everywhere in the world that people have fewer children because it's costly to have children and people want to uh realize their potential in other ways. They want to have uh jobs. They want to get an education. They want to travel. They want to experience and uh having a lot of children is not compatible with living that kind of life.