This is how we get rid of Albanese. Topher Project Ep 419

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:00]Anthony Albanesei has accidentally given us exactly what we need in order to turn Australia around. By which I mean this dumpster fire that we call a housing crisis is about to get so much worse so quickly that Australians who have voted Labor all their lives will actually be ready and willing to vote for change come the next federal election. What am I talking about? Well, the budget and specifically the abolishing of negative gearing for investors. See, this has been tried before in Australia in 1985 and it was abandoned in 1987 because rents jumped skyhigh. It was tried again in New Zealand in 2021 and abandoned in 2023 because rents jumped skyhigh. If you're seeing a pattern, that's because there's a pattern. Now, why does this matter? Well, because lowincome Australians, blueco collar workers, both young and old, including retirees, these people are meant to be the labor heartland.

[00:01:01]They are the people who are going to suffer the most over the next 2 years because negative gearing has been abolished again. And that means that these formerly rusted on Labor voters might become open to new ideas. Not all of them, of course, and not even a majority, but we don't need all of them.

[00:01:19]Every poll since the budget was handed down has agreed that the budget has been terrible for Labor and good for One Nation. Yuggov has Labor down two points, One Nation up one. Freshwater has Labour down three points, One Nation up one. Resolve also has Labour down three points, One Nation up two. And the most optimistic poll for Labor was the News poll, which has them unchanged on a 31% primary. But even so, they have One Nation rising three points after the budget. And the absolute latest poll from Demosu, it shows Labor flat, but now behind One Nation who have picked up two percentage points from the crossbench. There is no good news for Labor anywhere in any of the postbudget polls. But this is just the initial reaction to the budget. If these tax hikes are passed unchanged, it will bite fast, hard, and it will bite the Labor heartland hardest of all, and then the swing in the polls will most definitely be on. We're talking about people who have never imagined that they would vote for anyone other than Labor, but they're going to see things differently pretty soon for reasons that I'm about to cover. And when they go looking for a new political home because they can no longer afford their physical home, well, they're never going to switch to the Liberals. That would be sacrilege. And so I predict that they will switch instead to the new home of the Aussie battler, One Nation. Now, like I said, this isn't going to be a massive number of people. it'll only be a few percentage points worth. But with the polls already showing just a few percentage points difference between Labor and One Nation, a few percent swing away from Labor, if it goes directly to One Nation, well, that's all it's going to take. I'll talk you through what happened in Australia in 1985 and then what happened in New Zealand in 2021. And I'm going to show you how fast it goes bad. And in the process, we'll create a bit of a mind map of the years ahead and something of a battle plan for how we're going to take down this elbow government. But first, my name's Toeer Field. This is the TOER Project, and I help busy people like you to cut through the crap, make sense of the nonsense, and keep up with the world as it changes around you. Now, I'm 100% viewer supported, and I don't take any money from anyone. No political parties, no lobby groups, no industry groups. I don't even have advertisers or sponsors, and I'm trying to keep it that way for as long as I possibly can. You can help me to stay fully independent by buying me a coffee via the link in the description. And check out my books, DVDs, t-shirts, hoodies, caps, and stickers in a range of cool designs.

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[00:04:07]Right. Prime Minister Bob Hawk with his pre treasurer Paul Keiting abolished negative gearing on Australian investment properties in 1985.

[00:04:16]The policy change was almost identical to the one pushed by Elbow and Charmers today. Existing properties were grandfathered in. There's a special concession to encourage new construction. And everything was just unicorns and rainbows.

[00:04:31]Except that it wasn't. See, this might sound a little crazy, but stick with me.

[00:04:35]You don't decrease cost by increasing cost.

[00:04:41]I know it sounds crazy. I'll explain it slowly just in case any politicians are watching. Making owning a rental property more expensive makes renting that rental property more expensive.

[00:04:57]This is honestly one of the most basic concepts in the history of ever. But Hawk and Keing in 1985, as with Elbow and Charas today, they struggle to grasp it. The result of the changes to negative gearing in 1985. Well, in simple terms, rents skyrocketed, especially in Sydney, where they jumped up more than 40% in just 2 years.

[00:05:17][gasps] But it is a little more complicated than just assuming that all of this jump was caused by the changes to negative gearing alone. Because it's also true that overall inflation was high due to well, mostly due to government mismanagement. So some people, notably Saul Slake, they try to argue that in actual fact, the rents didn't really go up in real terms by all that much once you account for inflation. But I'm sorry, I don't buy it. That is revisionist BS in my opinion because at the time, Treasurer Keading, the same treasurer who abolished negative gearing in 1985, who then reintroduced negative gearing in 1987, he said that it would enhance the attractiveness of investment in both commercial and residential rental properties and have a beneficial effect on the supply of residential accommodation in particular. And that's exactly what proved to be the case. But I have to admit, there are people who contest the true cause of the 1985 spike in rental prices. So let's jump across the pond to New Zealand and the year 2021 for a more clearcut example. New Zealand Prime Minister Justinta Ardurn decided that interest on loans for investment properties should no longer be taxdeductible and she phased her changes in over a few years hoping to buffer the impact a little bit. Well, that didn't really work. And the policy was actually reversed before it had even come into full effect, but not before rents in New Zealand spiked to record levels. Now, the timeline matters here. The policy started coming into effect in October 2021 with its gradual phase in easing that initial blow. But even with that gradual phase in by March 2023, less than 18 months in when the policy had not yet come into full effect, rents were already growing rapidly over 8% perom. And in less than 2 1/2 years from the start of the policy, rents were pushing all-time highs with growth reaching 10% peranom for smaller rental properties. Now thanks to Leath Van Onelin and Macro Business for this graph. You can see here that rents in New Zealand have been pretty unstable in the past. But the rate of growth, you can see it climbs from a low point in 2010 all the way towards 2020 and then it spikes in 2022 and 23 while this new policy was coming into effect.

[00:07:51]But then looks what h what happened since the start of 2024.

[00:07:56]Not only has the rate of growth for rents gone down, but actually it's gone negative. What that means is that rents in New Zealand are declining. What happened? Well, what happened was this guy was elected to be the new New Zealand prime minister at the very end of 2023.

[00:08:14]Now, he campaigned on a promise to restore negative gearing and he did so gradually over 2024 and the first half of 25.

[00:08:23]and we'll have a look at what happened to the rate of rental increase during 2024 and 25. The rate of increase declined relentlessly and then went negative. That means that rental prices in New Zealand have been falling across the country for a long time now. Now, just as with Bob Hawk abolishing negative gearing in 1985 and people now arguing over the true cause of the spike in rental prices, so too will people argue with me over the true cause in New Zealand. And that'd be right to point out that things like changes to immigration rates have also played a part in the turnaround. But you can argue the details all you like. The pattern that emerges is pretty clear.

[00:09:07]Getting rid of negative gearing does not help housing affordability. It actually makes it worse for the people who can afford it least, renters. And that's where we bring it all back to Australia.

[00:09:20]If I'm right, and history plus all the serious economists all say that I am right about this, then renters in Australia are about to have a really tough time for the rest of this year and for all of 2027. And that means that a lot of rusted on Labor voters are about to have some very good reasons to say screw that guy to elbow at the next election. The key is the Labour Party are going to try and blame everyone but themselves. Just like with Ardurn in New Zealand in 2021, like with Hawk in Australia in 1985, the narrative will be that it's complicated. We don't really know why or they'll find some other scapegoat to blame. And it's up to us to have conversations with these people to gently help them to realize that the Labor Party, it's no longer the friend of the working class. It's no friend of the poor either. and it is definitely no friend of renters. And if we do that, if we have those conversations, then these polls, which are already looking pretty bad for the Labour Party today, they will become absolutely catastrophic.

[00:10:25]And so it is that I open this video by saying that Albanzy has accidentally given us exactly what we need to turn this country around.

[00:10:35]There will be pain for renters and poor Australians over the next 18 months. And sadly, that is exactly what's needed so that we can get rid of elbow and turn this country around. My name is Toeer Field. This is the TOEFL project, and I help busy people like you to cut through the crap, make sense of the nonsense, and keep up with the world as, excuse me, as it changes around you. I'm 100% viewer supported, so you can help me by buying me a coffee via the link in the description. And please check out my books, DVDs, and all my merch while you're there. Thank you for watching all the way to the end. The algorithm loves you for it, and so do I. Please like, comment, subscribe, and as always, think free.