Government Borrowing Improves, But 'Still A Pretty Gloomy Picture' | Dominic O'Connell

[00:00:00]We've just had the latest snapshot from the Office for National Statistics. Uh Dominic O'Connell is back with us. Uh Dom, how they looking?

[00:00:05]>> Uh I think if you're a a really, really glass half full person, you >> Which I am.

[00:00:09]>> you might you might find uh reason for a slight smile in these numbers. So, in June, these are the uh borrowing and uh spending numbers for uh June from the Office for National Statistics. I'll get it out eventually.

[00:00:23]>> ONS.

[00:00:23]>> ONS, thank you. In June, uh the government borrowed 16 billion pounds, which does sound like a lot, but it is 8 billion pounds less than the same month last year, which is a bit of a blowout month.

[00:00:35]Uh interest payments uh uh were 11.8 billion pounds in the month. And so far this year, the government has borrowed 57.6 billion pounds, which is 3 billion pounds more than forecast by the OBR.

[00:00:48]So, it's still a pretty gloomy picture, but there is that one ray of light that isn't quite as bad as it was last year.

[00:00:53]Um income tax receipts were very strong, which is one of the reasons the number came down. But it is interesting if you look at government spending, it is still growing. And if you look at benefit spending in the month, the government spent 28.7 billion pounds on benefits.

[00:01:07]Uh that's 8.4% more than June last year.

[00:01:11]So, so a bit of a So, a bit >> [laughter] >> 28 billion.

[00:01:14]>> 28.7 billion on benefits. That's 8.4% more than the same month last year. Yes, it's all benefits.

[00:01:22]>> Um why are income tax Why are in in income receipts high? Cuz that saved Rachel Reeves last year, I seem to remember.

[00:01:28]>> Because Well, because we had the the income tax thresholds frozen. We also have the higher national insurance uh contributions from employers. So, all those things are uh lending to leading to more money going into the government coffers.

[00:01:41]>> And unemployment numbers this morning?

[00:01:43]>> Yes, a pretty flat uh employment market revealed by this. The unemployment rate came in at 4.9%, which is a tiny bit less than was forecast. It was forecast to come in at five. Uh the number of number of payroll employees is down by 85,000 compared to the same month last year. Uh 7,000 fewer vacancies. So, a very flat, not much happening labor market. Perhaps not as bad as some thought, but that that big disparity which we've talked about before in public sector pay versus private sector pay is still there. So, in the in the uh private sector, average pay grew by 2.9%. So, it's running on roughly on a par with inflation.

[00:02:19]>> Yeah.

[00:02:19]>> In the public sector, 5.5%.

[00:02:22]So, there's a big split between um wage settlements in the private sector and the public sector.

[00:02:26]>> Yeah, and that tends to annoy people in the private sector, in my experience.

[00:02:29]Dom, good to speak to you. We'll be back in an hour or so's time. That's uh Dominic O'Connell, our business correspondent.

[00:02:33]>> It is 7:26. The last possible date Andy Burnham could hold a general election is August the 15th, 2029. So, he has at most just over 3 years to turn Labour's fortunes around. The party is at a low ebb in the polls, though. The latest YouGov polling for the Times out this morning has Labour at 20 points behind both the Conservatives and Reform UK.

[00:02:56]But, Andy Burnham won three terms as Greater Manchester Mayor, and he won the Wakefield by-election against tough opposition from Nigel Farage's party.

[00:03:04]So, can he be the person who turns things around nationally? Peter Kellner is the former YouGov president and joins us now. Good morning.

[00:03:12]>> Morning, Kate.

[00:03:13]>> Before we start getting into the detail, how do voters feel about Andy Burnham as a person right now?

[00:03:19]>> Those who have a view, Kate, rather like him.

[00:03:22]They think he's likable, strong, decisive.

[00:03:26]But, and this is the important but, the biggest number in every case, the people say they don't know. So, whereas um Keir Starmer was actively disliked on by every characteristic you could possibly measure, um uh the the Andy Burnham suffers very, very little in terms of dislike or weakness. But, uh half the country typically have yet to make up their mind. And it's how that half reacts once they see him as Prime Minister that I think will be decisive.

[00:03:57]>> And that's so interesting. How do you think they might view the cabinet appointments then? Because I suppose that will help them make up their mind about Andy Burnham in in the longer term. Some big losses, but some familiar faces.

[00:04:09]>> Uh yes, Kate, but can I I'm I'm afraid most people listening to us now will have a pretty good idea about all the cabinet ministers and some knowledge of them. But the great British public already only knows three or four political figures at a time and with all clarity. So, for most people this will be well, we'll wait and see what what they do, what what they're like. But um when you've got somebody like John Healey as Chancellor, uh he comes across, I think, both to the financial markets, which is important, and to the British public, which is at least equally as important, as a decent, safe pair of hands, a good man, trustworthy, um like I suppose when I was a young, old-fashioned local bank manager, not that there are any of those nowadays. Um so, in as far as one can make an early judgment, I I I think he's going to be pretty good.

[00:04:59]>> When we talk about voters, and it's a really good point that about, you know, lots of people don't know who Andy Burnham is, and lots of people don't really know or really care about who who is in the top jobs in the cabinet. But what do people care about? What are the consistent priorities of voters in this country? Have they shifted at all in the last 6 months?

[00:05:15]>> Um yes, one can look at it at two levels.

[00:05:17]One is the specific things, and it is the cost of living, getting getting by, having enough money at the end of the week or at the end of the month, and and so the story the news today about uh VATs on electricity bills disappearing is a small but significant uh down payment, if you like, on what the Burnham government will do. But I think the reality is um that he can do a number of little things, but he doesn't really have the money to do big things.

[00:05:48]So the other half of his appeal is going to be the story he tells. Does he Does he create a narrative for his government of which as I say in today's electricity announcement it is the first part. A narrative in which you say, "Ah yes, I can see where he's trying to take us.

[00:06:04]We'll give him a bit of time to get it done." He can't get a lot done quickly, but I think he could create a narrative, a story um that will enable people to say, "Yeah.

[00:06:15]Yeah, I'm good with that."

[00:06:16]>> Yeah, that's such a good point. And just finally, Peter, I suppose the big question will be and although we are not we're not close to a general election in theory, how well might Andy Burnham fare against big characters like Nigel Farage of Reform UK, Kemi Badenoch of of the Conservative Party? Do we have any indication of that yet?

[00:06:34]>> Not really um because as I say about half the public don't really yet have a view about Andy Burnham. And so I think it is honestly far too early to tell. Um get me back on let's say after the summer holidays in September or around the time of the party conference and I think we'll start to have a fairly clear view because we've also got good Nigel Farage's by-election coming up next month and in in in Clacton. Um and and that seems to be going rather oddly at the moment. So we'll have a few weeks of Burnham as Prime Minister, we'll have the Clacton by-election, we'll have the party conferences coming up. I think things will start to clarify in the autumn, but they're a bit cloudy just at the moment.

[00:07:13]>> When you say slightly oddly in that by-election, what do you mean, Peter?

[00:07:17]>> Well, what I mean is that none of the other parties, major parties, are standing and it looks like a two-way fight between Nigel Farage and Kevin Linface. I can't imagine that was what Nigel Farage expected to happen when he announced he was standing down and forcing a by-election.

[00:07:33]>> Yes, I suspect not. And Peter, you know what you've done there.

[00:07:35]>> believe you've done this, Peter.

[00:07:36]>> I love it. You've pressed the big red buzzer because what you've done is you you've mentioned the by-election and now we need to read out the candidates, and there are 32 of them, I think.

[00:07:45]>> [laughter] >> Oh, I'm so sorry, Kate.

[00:07:47]>> No, don't be. Don't be, Peter.

[00:07:50]>> [laughter] >> Don't be sorry, because I tell you what, lots of our listeners absolutely live for this moment, so you've made a lot of people happy, as you do every time you're on this program, Peter. You're always very welcome back. Thanks very much.

[00:08:02]That is Peter Kellner there, the former YouGov president.

[00:08:04]>> We're going to do this. I just want to place on record, this is a farcical rule. It is a farcical farcical rule for what appears to be a farcical by-election, and yet we're going to do it. I think what we're going to try and do over the course of the next few months is find month or so is find funny ways of doing it. I want to do it sped up, Kate. Do you remember I want to buy this is what I used to do is do it in the background of Shut Up.

[00:08:25]>> Well, we have let's we'll check about whether we're allowed to do that, but should we crack on?

[00:08:30]>> the worst that's going to happen?

[00:08:31]>> Well, we could Let's not >> Let's find out.

[00:08:33]>> Let's not mess around. Let's find out.

[00:08:34]Let's take a risk.

[00:08:36]>> [laughter] >> Jeopardy.

[00:08:36]>> All right, come on, let's get through these, cuz we're late for the news already.

[00:08:39]>> very late for the news now.

[00:08:41]Here's the full list of candidates for the by-election in Clacton-on-Sea.

[00:08:45]>> Joseph 77, independent.

[00:08:47]>> Athem Alkateb, The Forward Party.

[00:08:50]>> Count Bin Face, Count Bin Face Party.

[00:08:51]>> Nick, The Incredible Flying Brick, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party.

[00:08:56]>> Tony Kane, independent.

[00:08:58]>> Woke Trump Cosey, independent.

[00:09:01]>> William Stewart James Clouston, Social Democratic Party.

[00:09:04]>> Reece Cowan, independent.

[00:09:06]>> Glenn Charles Cummings, independent.

[00:09:09]>> Martin Daubney, Freedom Alliance, Real People, Real Alternative.

[00:09:13]>> Andy Erlam, independent.

[00:09:15]>> Nigel Farage, Reform UK.

[00:09:17]>> Asif Fad, independent.

[00:09:19]>> Laurence Fox, The Reclaim Party.

[00:09:21]>> Tony Francis, independent.

[00:09:23]>> Robin Green, independent.

[00:09:24]>> Abbie Hookway, independent.

[00:09:26]>> Howling Lord Hope, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party.

[00:09:29]>> Stephen Richard Ingram, independent.

[00:09:31]>> Amy Morris, independent.

[00:09:32]>> Derek Norbert Morris, independent.

[00:09:34]>> Malcolm Noal O'Keefe, independent.

[00:09:36]>> Martin O'Brien, independent.

[00:09:38]>> Kes and Kuma Puvillaiya, UK Voice Safer and Stronger UK.

[00:09:42]>> you got silly there and you missed out Nick Palace, who's independent.

[00:09:46]>> Daniel Pocock, >> [laughter] >> also independent.

[00:09:49]>> [gasps] >> James Bradley, Consensus Party candidate.

[00:09:53]>> Jerry Smith, independent.

[00:09:55]>> Ty Stevens, British Democrats.

[00:09:57]>> John Stevens, Rejoin EU.

[00:09:59]>> Baron Von Thunderclap, the Official Monster Raving Loony Party.

[00:10:03]>> Pamela Walford, guess what? Independent.

[00:10:06]>> Marcus White, Everyone Is God Party.

[00:10:08]>> Mark Wilkinson, independent.

[00:10:13]>> And all I'm going to say is the vast majority of names on that list are men.

[00:10:17]Uh you can see the full list on who can I vote for.co.uk.

[00:10:21]>> So what if we do it in the Tom Jones voice?

[00:10:23]>> Well, yeah.

[00:10:24]>> the full list on who can I vote for.co.uk.

[00:10:27]>> Okay.