Technical analysis tools like the MRI top indicator (derived from TD Sequential) can help identify market tops and predict corrections, but attempting to time the exact market bottom is fundamentally impossible and relies more on luck than skill; instead, investors should focus on long-term value and avoid trying to predict precise price points.
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BITCOIN IS DUMPING DUMPING DUMPING NOW !!!Added:
Bitcoin is finally breaking below the bear flag, which feels like I've been talking about on the channel for roughly um 5 years, but I think it's been more like 2 months. We're finally seeing the breakdown. It was quite obvious that the breakdown was imminent on the video I published about hyper liquids um just about 16 hours ago. I gave a brief Bitcoin update where I highlighted that Bitcoin's bear flag has become so weak that I expect the breakdown to occur as soon as this current trading week which we have entered. We even um mentioned that the S&P when we go to the S&P 500, the S&P from a momentum based perspective on the weekly time frame has reached something called an MRI top.
Whenever you have an MRI top derived by TD Sequential, Tom DeMark's TD Sequential um trading system, the legendary Tone Vays was able to make a derivative and create the MRI.
Whenever you see an MRI top, the ninth candle of bullish momentum, it's fair to expect a one to four candle correction.
So, with that correction, I anticipated that Bitcoin would see its long-due, long-awaited breakdown from the bear flag. So, that's happening now. My initial target is of course the 67 and a half. Um that level comes just from the price based support, and it comes from volume based analysis. We conducted that volume based TA a few videos back, so I don't want to uh bore you with a bunch of shenanigans cuz I know that um almost 90% of you are regular watchers of the channel, so you're already aware about the reasons for why we're bearish and the reasons behind the particular levels that we have spoken about. But, just to remind you, uh I think that the 67 and a half uh towards $66,000 is a good box for Bitcoin to retrace initially and then we'll have to reevaluate if we get a bounce or if we do not get a bounce. My base case scenario is that Bitcoin continues to fall lower in correlation with its QT ending bear market in correlation with the four-year cycles that Bitcoin has followed exactly and very precisely, no matter what individuals on crypto Twitter have been saying.
Bitcoin has been following its four-year cycles on par. That leads to bearish movements into Q4 of 2026 and whatever the price of Bitcoin ends up being, whether if it's $60,000, whether if it's $55,000, 49K, regardless of the price on October, the month of October that Bitcoin trades at, I'm going to be confident that we can start seeing a move towards the upside.
If I have to speculate, I think there's a greater chance that Bitcoin reclaims 60, swipes the low, and heads into the 55K region. But I need to be clear, if you're somebody that wants to accumulate Bitcoin and you are an individual that believes in Bitcoin's long-term future, just like I am, I see Bitcoin going to millions of dollars per coin, then I wouldn't try to time the market to the T. It's it's basically impossible to do it. If you do time the exact price to the exact specific decimal or or dollar, it's purely luck. It's not because you're a good analyst, per se, it's because of luck. And I have friends who have timed it and they are also very good analysts. It's just that that timing of the specific price isn't an ability of your TA. It's just purely luck. That's what I'm trying to say. So don't wait to time the low for Bitcoin.
We can get close to it. Hell, maybe we even get the month correct, maybe even the day correct. But the exact price is super, super complicated. As someone who understands Bitcoin's use cases, understands Bitcoin's place in the world, I think that $72,000 is already super cheap for what Bitcoin has to offer. So, if you're looking for a place to be buying Bitcoin and other cryptos and even trading them, do check out our partnered exchange links in the description to get the best bonuses available. We have Wicks, BTCC, where you can get the most attractive campaign at this moment in time, Lbank and Bybit, where you can buy Bitcoin with credit card and Apple Pay. I'm buying Bitcoin here. I think that for my long-term investing journey, it's going to be a good idea. But as a leverage trader, I I'm not there yet. I need to see some confirmations. Let's wait for how far this Bitcoin red candle on the daily takes us. With a confirmation of a close on this daily candle below the line of support, I'm I'm confident to expect the 67. And from that point onwards, we can reassess.
Ethereum is another cryptocurrency that's following our TA exactly, as predicted. Proud to say, knock on wood, hopefully it doesn't reverse course. But so far, it's doing what I've what what I envisioned in my head. And this was the squiggly line drawing alongside the ascending bearish continuation pattern that we brought up in in prior videos. We're following this squiggly line pretty well. I think we can reclaim the low for Ethereum. Benjamin Cowen expects a retake of the low that was made in February, which is at 1.7. I'm quite bullish on Ethereum and anything that has to do with tokenization, RWA. BNB is entering the token tokenization narrative. They're currently tokenizing more than 7,000 US stocks and ETFs with zero commissions. I believe that will play out so well for the BNB's price in the upcoming cycle. So, BNB, Ethereum, and and and the video which I made yesterday titled about I'm buying lots of this altcoin hyperliquid. I I'm planning to jump into increased um position sizes. With hyperliquid, my exposure isn't much. I'm waiting for a correction, which I think will happen.
We were up already like 10%. Uh sorry, 6% since the video upload.
Which is crazy to me. The ETFs are buying 140 million dollars in total with uh the with 13 straight days of inflows, including the Friday 30 mil.
Institutions will love this.
Institutions are buying up ridiculous amounts of Bitwise's BHYB. Keep in mind, Bitwise isn't an institutional offerer at the level of a BlackRock or a Fidelity, but you're still pulling in numbers that you can compare to BlackRock's Ethereum ETF. So, it's super impressive. I think hyperliquid will continue to grow, but I'm waiting for that bearish divergence to play out to add some into my portfolio. I think it's a great project. If you want to learn more about hyperliquid, click the card at the top right-hand corner and watch this 12-13 minutes episode. I'm telling you it is so worth it. Um I geeked out over hyperliquid. I'm sure that you will, too. Additionally, what are the fundamental factors for Bitcoin dropping? So, Michael Saylor, it's confirmed that they sold 32 Bitcoin. We brought this up in uh in prior videos, so that's why I didn't start it off as like the main headline. But, Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin equivalent to 2.4 million. This is the first time that Strategy has sold Bitcoin in over 3 years. The last time Strategy had sold was on the 26th of December 2022.
They sold, they rebought back the week Bitcoin with they bought back even more Bitcoin actually 2 days afterward. They bought 810 Bitcoin after selling 32.
I'm a believer in strategies model. I think they are smart enough to figure out how they want to manage their treasury. So overall, I think strategy is going to do just fine and their actions won't be consequential for Bitcoin spot price. If we were to map their last sale and compare it to this candle that we're on in 2026 with their previous sale, they sold on December the 26th or the week of the 26th and Bitcoin went down from 16,000.8 dollars to the lower 16,000, but then you had a huge upwards green candle on the weekly two weekly candles following that.
Um you know, it was after the bottom. It was at the low of the cycle. The narrative of Saylor selling Bitcoin and Bitcoin ETFs, you know, going on a 10-day outflow streak for the first time since inception, contradictory to the Bitwise ETF that's accumulating consecutively for 13 days straight, these are narratives that you identify when you're getting close to the lows of Bitcoin.
So again, why I'm mindful of not trying to the time the exact low cuz you never know what the market is going to do 100%.
You can speculate with good accuracy and perform your analysis.
I know that we're down over 40% close to 50% from all-time highs. So why wouldn't I buy up now?
I am buying up Bitcoin now. I'm not going to wait until October. As a leverage trader, I'm going to flip bullish near Q4. Not exactly at Q4. I'll probably just like Ben, I'll probably start flipping bullish in in in August as a leveraged trader and put in some hail Mary leverage trades to try and scoop the exact low to make lots of money going into the bull. To keep those positions open until the end of the bull run. For now, I will remain with my cautionary stance. Today we have the ISM manufacturing PMI data which should drop in 20 minutes.
Uh this looks into the business cycle and if America's expanding in the economy or if it's contracting in economy, above 50's an expansion, below 50's a contraction. Even if we get above 50, the impact of the ISM takes months until it can repurpose into altcoins going up and you need the upper 50's with money printing. So I wouldn't be putting too much um spotlights onto the ISM data. I would put the spotlight on the cryptic messages which we're getting from Windows, from Nvidia. Uh they're saying a new era of PCs going to launch. Today is GTX. Nvidia could top and a top in Nvidia would result to Bitcoin smashing even lower to the downside. That's exactly what's playing out. Currently geopolitical tensions are still remaining heated with President Trump saying Iran really wants to make a deal and it will be a good good one for the USA.
And it will all work out in the end. It always does.
Well, hopefully. Um but in the meantime, like you know, crude oil is still around 100 bucks, inflation is pushing to even more elevated territories. The Kuwaiti air defense systems are confronting hostile missiles and drone attacks. Like it's still quite concerning and the war is unfortunately and very tragically still not over. CENTCOM confirmed that measured strikes were carried out over the weekend on Saturday and Sunday and that fighter jets destroyed Iranian air defenses, a ground control hub, and two drones praying that we see a conclusion a peaceful conclusion ASAP because I think we've all had enough, particularly the countries that are involved in the conflicts. Guys, I hope you enjoyed today's episode. If you did, do me a favor and destroy that like button.
Thank you all so much for watching, and I'll see you on the next one. Bye-bye.
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