This video demonstrates how to analyze high-growth technology stocks like Nvidia and SpaceX using technical analysis (moving averages, support levels, ABC patterns) and fundamental analysis (revenue growth, gross margins, forward P/E ratios), while also discussing market psychology, IPO performance patterns, and the distinction between product quality and stock market valuation.
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EPISODE 44: NVDA TO $500?? | BUY THE INTUIT DIP? | SPACEX COULD CHANGE TESLA FOREVER ??追加:
Make sure you put on your calf jersey tonight, Danny.
>> Yeah, I don't own any jerseys. Uh I owned one LeBron jersey or something like that >> of the Cavs.
>> Uh I'm I'm one of the few Clevelanders that didn't burn his Cavs jersey way back when he went to the Heat. So I have that one, but it's in a youth large.
Doesn't quite fit.
>> It was a long time ago. You guys You guys have to have to I don't know. forget about forget about that, I guess, you know, move forward.
>> I think most of us have he came back in 2016 and then uh won the chip. In fact, check this out.
>> Okay, >> let's see.
>> This is This is my prized possession.
It's the only thing that's lasted all of my moves.
>> I have a framed plane dealer.
>> Take a look. Huh?
>> From the day that we won.
>> Yeah. Wow. And uh that that game went into overtime. Technically, it was a June. Technically, I think the game ended on the 21st, Eastern Standard Time. I'm not going to shove this in the camera's face, but this says Monday, June 20th, which is my birthday. So, I have this uh this birthday edition of perhaps the greatest day in in Cleveland sports history.
>> That's a great memory. That is a great memory for sure. Yeah, it is. Nothing hanging that back up yet.
>> Yeah. How old was was LeBron back in the day?
>> 26 21 years old or >> he was even younger, right?
>> Uh I don't know how old he was.
>> Yeah. What a great player. I mean, um >> he was 32.
>> Yeah.
>> I think that whoever's wins the West Conference is going to be the champion. In my opinion, it's gonna be either Oklahoma or um or San Antonio, but we'll see.
>> I think the only I think the only way a team in the East has a shot is if OKC and the Spurs go seven games and they beat the crap out of each other and let's just say the Cavs or Knicks finish each other up in five and they have some time to rest. then maybe the East can win a game, can steal a game on the road, >> uh, and then they have a chance because it's kind of what happened when Boston beat the Mavericks. Like, don't get me wrong, Boston was a much better team, but everyone was watching the Western Conference Finals when Luca made the the finals with that with that really good Mavericks team and they just couldn't compete. They were too hurt and too tired.
>> Yeah. Um yeah, I don't see the Knicks or the Cavs um defeating either the either the Spores or or OKC. We'll see what happens. It will be interesting.
>> Listen, if WMB is an alien, I I I lost sleep this week staying up to watch him drop a 4020 game in his first Western Conference Finals game.
>> Hands down.
>> He's the best player in the league. No other hands down. If you don't if you if you don't like basketball, I would encourage you just to watch a few Spurs games every year when he's playing >> because it it's the sport in the highest the highest possible form. It's it's like peak LeBron when he was on the Heat. And just for those of you who don't remember, 295 lbs. He was a tight end with the speed of Usain Bolt playing basketball. It was just it was insane. What a time. And now we get it with Webby. Not the same thing obviously, but freak of nature 74 just making everyone else look silly.
>> Handle the ball like a point guard and shoot three-pointers.
>> Oh well, listen. I got I Well, we don't have enough time to do to do those hot takes. We got a handful of things to talk about today. Yeah. Well, not just any stocks. Let's talk about the freshest stock. Actually, before we do that, welcome in everybody at episode 44 of Charts and Checks. We are 4 minutes in and we've talked about basketball. It doesn't get much whiter than that. Uh so with me today, Alvaro Pereira, bilingual stock market channel. If you're in this video, well, you're already here. That's great. If you want a little bit more, we have Don Let of Stock Chartistry. His link will be in the box below. And I am here again. Sorry, guys. Don Foyani, the gorilla with glasses. You can find me where you've been able to find me. All right, SpaceX gentlemen. Uh, all hail Elon Musk came to >> It's a bubble.
>> Well, hold on before we get there.
>> Elon did >> next next.
>> Elon did what what Josh Brown said and he dropped the S1 20 minutes before Jensen came up to talk about the incredible corporate performance that Nvidia put up. So, we're going to talk about both of those today. Uh, and then we'll we'll wrap with something. So, I was taking a look at the revenue that the company's making. Um, I'm burning money. So Elen wants to I'll help you talk about some figures that we can you can some color keep talking. Okay, go ahead.
>> Yep. No, no, keep talking. Do your thing.
>> Okay. No, no. The uh So they they are still burning money. Um I think that revenue on a year-over-year basis is something like 25 billion. I mean, >> oh, you want your over here? I was showing So I put up the quarter.
I'm sorry about that. Put up the quarter.
>> Oh, okay. Okay. So do you have it? Okay.
Go ahead. Take take.
>> Oh, no. Okay. So, the quarter the quarter this quarter the last 3 months was 4.7 billion which if you go ahead and you annualize is like$18 billion.
>> However, they also lost 4.2 billion money. That's what I'm saying >> in that. Exactly. No, you're 100% correct. So, I when I see 1.75 trillion valuation and then I also see in a quarter you burned $4.2 uh billion. I think perhaps it's a little premature.
>> Yeah. So, the re the the real bullish thesis behind SpaceX and please don't laugh at me is um data centers in outside the earth in space.
>> Yeah, you're looking I think the word space, right?
>> No, no, no. I'm not I'm not making this up, guys. So Eden has been talking about data centers in space outside of the earth.
>> Sorry, I didn't mean to.
>> And that is the super I mean I told you not to laugh at me. So that is the bullish case supposedly. So once again this is the same story relative to Tesla and you and I by the way Donnie you you and I are Tesla customers and we love our vehicles. I mean I love my vehicles >> north of four.
>> Okay. So I mean um one thing is liking the product of a company uh and and the other is like mistaking that with with the stock market and the stock of that company and valuations. So Elen has been promising um anti- promises forever in regards to and in the case of SpaceX. This so this gives him >> a like much broader you know space in order to keep promising empty promises that he will never you know that will never come to fruition. So that's that's what this thing is about. Um, can can he actually raise $1 trillion on the IPO? Do you do you guys think that that is attainable?
>> 1 trillion?
>> Yeah.
>> For himself personally or the valuation of >> No, no, no. The valuation of the company.
>> This this stock will come public at 1.7 trillion and I'd be willing to bet almost anything it pops immediately to two.
>> Wow.
>> Don, you you and I were talking a little bit about this before Alvaro showed up.
I think you had a good take if you want to share it.
My take wasn't necessarily on SpaceX. It was basically about how IPOs actually seem to perform in regards to trading the market.
>> Uh they tend to actually if it's a if it's a IPO that's highly anticipated and people want to get into it and this is one of those, okay, they tend to actually do pretty well maybe after the first month or the second month, okay?
But then after that they go downhill from there and it seems like it takes almost two or three years before they actually get legs and begin actually begin moving up again. That's typically what you see with IPO performance in regards to I'm talking about >> you can make a case that that's what happened with corweave with circle and with most of the most of the most recent IPOs that uh we've had right so do you do you think that that will be the case in u um for SpaceX and more importantly so um you guys know that I have been trading in and out DXYZ so that is a closed and investment company. I am out of it totally. So, I closed my last position today. I I don't think I will be re-enter the position. Uh the net asset value is at around $20 and the stock is already at 60 bucks or so. Um so, are you guys thinking about um positions in regards to the IPO?
Tesla maybe. Uh Don, you you you're actively trading Tesla. Do you have any any thoughts on this here >> in regards to uh how maybe the >> stuck say that someone wanted to >> Yeah. to kind of uh do some sort of a front running before the IPO.
>> Yeah. I really I really don't know. I'm I'm not really thinking of any kind of co-re I know that there is because people automatically >> Can you Can you pull up a technical short of Tesla? But I'm no but I'm actually but there is a but there is something I am thinking about. So and you kind of reminded me about that. Uh I've been uh reading and hearing a lot that uh SpaceX is actually going to pump up the hardware uh space possibly in the whole AI and chip space. So I actually was wanting to pull up that sector. I haven't got that sector set up on my computer and all that for this call right here, but I've actually want to actually pull that sector up, see who's in the sector, and do some research in front of that because uh there's been several people who are kind of following this and they're kind of pointing to the idea that maybe hardware is actually going to get a pump out of SpaceX.
>> I think it's already happening. Uh, one of the names that's really really young and somehow adjacent to this this whole thing is Redwire. Uh, RW RDW, excuse me.
>> It's in the uh, the Jedi ETF, which is Drones and Modern Warfare. It was a $9 stock last week. I think it's trading around 14 or 13 now.
>> It It's already happening. I think the most obvious is um, oh man, I think it's like in not not intuitive. Uh, something I can't remember. It's a starts with an I, but there there's a handful of these like rocket launch companies that have have done really really well. I think that that boat may have already sailed and they'll probably all trade they'll probably all trade close to SpaceX after the IPO goes. Until then, it's completely headline driven.
Now, another thing that I'm actually thinking about and this kind of goes into my idea about like where this is a thesis and and you know these thesises they can you can throw you throw them out the window as soon as like price action actually says you're stupid and and your thesis was idiotic, right? You know, I mean the the stock market is constantly humbling us when we think that we know, right?
>> 100%. But what I've been saying and you know from being in my pre-market lives so far is that the market's not ready to tip over yet because it's not greedy enough. And so I've been calling that maybe it's going to have a little bit of a pullback, which we did. And I think we're actually going to make a incremental high and that probably is going to happen right around the time this whole IPO is happening. So they're going to have they're going to kind of help each other out. But then after that, that's when we finally get our little at least a five to 7% roll over uh on on the stock market before we get our big roll over and and probably a second, you know, so we get a second push, you know, up towards those high u because I think that, you know, the market's due to actually it's just ran so much it's due to actually come back in a little bit lower. I'm not calling for crash. I'm calling for a a a decent lower high, you know.
>> Fair enough. I mean, we already had a a tiny pullback. Nothing meaningful, of course, but >> what was it like one one and a half 2%.
>> Um I don't know from pick to throw to to throw it was it was Yeah. One one and a half%. I mean, nothing.
>> Yeah. See, that doesn't count. That's just a That's a pullback into the trend line.
>> That's not even a That's not even really a lower high. That's kind of a continuation.
>> Yeah. Um this is a 4 hour short of Tesla. Um it is trading above all the moving averages. I have the 5DMA at 414 bucks.
Um if the hype in regards to the IPO of SpaceX um keeps, you know, um keeps keeps going, I don't know, keeps going.
Let's just put it that way. I can see Tesla um if 414 bucks happens to act as support potentially being involved in some in some sort of a front running.
>> Um I think that the I that do we have a specific date for the IPO Danny? We don't. Right. I think it's going to be somewhere in September.
>> So um >> might be might be sooner than that but yeah >> might it might be sooner than that.
Okay.
>> Yeah. So this would be a candidate for a front running especially if the bulls can sustain price above the 5 DMA for $113. The stock that I have been trading in and out guys and I am completely out as of now. Today I closed my last position on this one. This is this is DXYZ. Take a look at this. Check this out guys. So I started my last position yesterday after hours around $49. I closed the position today around 53 bucks. This is a close and investment company that has something like I don't know 20% exposure relative to SpaceX.
>> Rumor rumor has >> take a look at this 60 bucks and there's another ETF.
>> You didn't take the bait. That's too bad.
>> Yeah, take a look. And NASA, check this out. I mean, this >> Tell people what NASA is. Tell people what NASA is. It's not bad.
>> This is a fematic space innovators ETF.
>> Yeah, this is this is not like the United States National. Yeah, it's not bad.
>> No, no, no, no, it isn't. Yeah, it it isn't the NASA, you know, as we know it.
And I don't know, this is going to be the largest IPO ever, guys. So, I guess the hype and the excitement, especially um you know, especially if we talk about retail investors, it's going to be it's going to be big probably. And on top of that, we all know that Tesla is some sort of a gold stock.
So, um I I don't know what I I don't know what could be the general situation of the markets when the IPO is, you know, um two or three weeks out, but um I don't know, we're talking about a $2 trillion market cap for an IPO. This is crazy. So we can also make a case that um money will be coming out from um you know stocks that have been winning um in 2026. So maybe we could we could see money coming out >> from you know memory um stocks or maybe semiconductors. We'll see about that.
>> But it's going to be I mean$2 trillion dollars and then we have so um we also have this year the IPO of um OpenAI and Anthropic. So, what are we talking about here?
>> Maybe, right? Like I I know they >> Well, no, I I I don't know. I'm just saying maybe I I know they have to, but Don alluded to it a little bit earlier.
If market sentiment sentiment, excuse me, I can't pronounce words, is just absolute dog water in two or three months. There's no way they're going to IPO. There's no shot. They haven't even filed the S1's yet.
>> Uh but but you are correct. Where does the money come from? I don't know. Uh I would say it was interesting. I was watching the Cberus IPO and that hasn't performed well since the debut.
>> At the same time, it's caused a bit of a stalling in some of the AMDs uh and other semiconductor adjacent plays. My kind of head cannon here is that there's no new money going into like the servers IPO or or others. They're just coming from the winners. You've laid it out really really well. I I think this gives you an opportunity to maybe find some value in parts of the market that are doing well outside of the sector. And as we've talked about agnosium, there's not a lot of them. Like there's very few bright spots outside of the hardware space.
>> And you know, while we're looking at those, I would honestly just go ahead.
I'll say it again because it's working and I'll probably talk more about it even if it stops working. Goldman Sachs totap. That's a SpaceX play 100%. Yeah.
And it and it got well it's SpaceX. It's it's it's IPO wave play. These guys these these IPOs are massive. The only people with the bandwidth to get this done right are Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley is actually a better performer than Goldman. But I want to talk about Goldman because it it just made a new all-time high and it's retested. I think if you can maintain 9 uh 975 here, you're in really really good shape.
MACD's waffling but positive and RSI wants wants to go above. I really really like the way this is setting up. And if you just look at Morgan Stanley, we'll type it in real quick. This is a beautiful breakout candle. In fact, you could buy today and just set a tight stop loss for 195.
>> Yeah, it's worth hard to hate it.
>> Yeah, Danny. And something that is worth pointing out here is the fact that financials XLF Yeah. The sector this sector in which Goldman Sach is trading is in a technical correction brother. So >> go figure the the the relative strength of gold is making a brainy alltime highs.
>> Yeah.
>> Yeah. when when the sector >> and this is a big holding you know this is a very large >> uh market capitalization uh bank and XLF looks ugly pretty much 10% of the highs and Goldman Sachs is making a brainy alltime high so this goes to show um the hype that we have take a look at this 4hour share of XLF it it's it's ugly below the 200 day moving average below a declining 100 EMA 10% of the highs and at the same time Goldman Sachs is making a brain high. So this speaks about the hype that is surrounding these potential upcoming IPO. So IPOs the only one that that that was already confirmed was SpaceX, but again we're still waiting for confirmation from Anthropic and OpenAI. So we're talking about I don't know what four trillion$5 trillion. So that money is going is probably going to is going to probably uh it will going to have to come from somewhere else. I don't know. Maybe we we we we carry out a massive monetary expansion. The money doesn't have to come come out from anywhere, but you never know. So any thoughts on this um situation, Dan?
I just uh I'm looking at those charts and and man, thanks for pulling those out there, Donnie. Those those are beautiful looking charts. Not the JP Morgan one.
>> No, but do you see the >> Yeah, the the disparity between financials XLFAN and uh and Goldman is is is jaw-dropping.
>> Yeah.
>> So, Goldman is a very important holding inside the sector and it's making a brain alltime highs when the sector itself is in a technical correction.
It's crazy. Well, the funny thing too though is that if you look at the liquidity that's come into the market, uh there's an amazing amount of liquidity that's also come into the market and that liquidity has got to go somewhere and maybe it's some of that liquidity ended up in Goldman Sachs and and these guys hands actually for uh investing. Uh maybe I'm not saying it did, but uh but um that's the reason why you know the market's still pumped. The market's pumped full of juice right now still, even though like uh I've mentioned this a couple of times and I even I even brought up this this uh little thing that I call angry little bear on some of my webcasts because because you know you talked about there's been a pretty good pullback, right, Albero? But then when you measured it, it's like a one and a half >> one%.
And it was tiny pullbacks and we like oh my god this is terrible. This is terrible. And last Tuesday's low looks like a multigenerational buy the deep opportunity. Unbelievable.
>> That's crazy. Absolutely crazy. Yeah.
>> Hey guys, um let's talk about Nvidia.
The stock is down today. The report was I mean it was a very good report. Um we can make a case that Nvidia couldn't exceed the Whisperers number on revenue which was 92 billion. They did 91 billion. I mean unbelievable. Um Jensen um acknowledged that they are losing market share in China in regards to >> I mean more than that he he he just he pretty much said screw it.
>> Correct. But I mean it he said yeah the Chinese Yeah.
Absolutely.
>> Don't blame it on him. So we know that we have a geopolitical issue there and the US government and whatever. So, um, now, um, today on CNBC, and I just made a video about this in Spanish.
>> Um, so Barrett came out and said that Nvidia is headed is headed to $500 per share. We're talking about a $10 trillion market capitalization if that were the case. And um, I don't know where are your thoughts, uh, Danny. Don, here. Go ahead, Don. I mean, can we complain about the report, Danny? No.
I mean, >> you know what? I I'm I do have something I want to complain about. I listened to the entire presentation. Uh, did you guys listen to the presentation or?
>> No. No, I haven't. I haven't.
>> Okay, here's what I'm going to complain about. It's the most boring presentation I ever heard in my life. I can't believe I'm looking at these numbers. 81.6 billion and 44 billion prior year. And you can't get excited about that. You can't talk about that like it's through the roof. the the uh we had did 44 billion last year and this year we had an outstanding 81 billion.
>> They needed some leaders.
>> All the hyperscalers, they're using us and they're not using anyone else. Isn't that great? And I was like, "Oh my god, I'm ready to kill myself."
>> And I was watching the candles going down as they were telling these numbers, these numbers that are really beyond comprehension. I'm watching the candles going down. And you know what I called those candles? I called those candles boredom candles. They bored us to tears.
But I'm going to tell you what I think it's uh I think it's actually I think the it's it's going up from here. Not not necessarily from 220, but I'm saying it put in a really great base. Okay. I'm really comfortable now coming back in and day trading and swing trading all the way up 250 or 3 $325. I'm real comfortable right now. What what what would what would be the the base? 200 bucks 210.
>> Well, it had that it had that um Well, let's just look at it. Okay. I I'll pull up my chart real quick.
>> Okay. Then we can take a look at the information that Danny has there. Okay.
>> Yeah. I'm going to stop sharing on that screen. I'm going to go to a different screen. Okay.
>> Okay.
>> All right. So, >> as as you're pulling that up, Don, I totally agree. These Nvidia earnings reports have become FOMC meetings.
>> It's just okay. Here's here's what we're doing. We know they're doing it. Okay, cool. See you next month in this case or next quarter. It's nothing nothing to get excited about.
>> Yeah.
>> But but but you should be because I mean >> the numbers are the figures are like >> it's insane. It's >> dropping. Yeah. 100%.
>> Well, yeah. We we've we've become spoiled. It's just like Apple.
>> Correct.
>> When they said what they were doing.
>> Yeah.
>> Mhm.
>> Right here. When you look at this, Hold on. Let's Let's take it out just a little bit. Let's take it out to about right there. Okay, good. So, right here, when you look at this, okay, you have a base right across here, right? It's really about your 200 level. Like, look at all the V. Look at all the trading action that happened in this area right here. To get through this area, it's going to take like this is like a concrete floor right here. You know, it is going to take significant work to get through that floor right there. So, I love that. And there we go. We're also in this up channel right here, a beautiful up channel. Uh, and you know, a lot of times Nvidia a couple days after reports, uh, it'll actually kind of go sideways or maybe give back a little bit of something, but I think we're going to pick up something right around here, right around this. And I and I got a 50% fib drawn and a around 217 and then 212 is for a 61.8 fib along with a snapback right there as well. So, I really like I like this area right here. I've actually sold a couple of puts already. If it comes down, it's going to come into that 20 period moving average. I'll probably double down on my puts. Uh, and as long as it's up above, you need to clarify that you sold puts.
>> When I say I sold puts, that means I'm going long.
>> No, no. You will be doubling down on your puts, but I mean, you didn't you didn't say first that you sold puts.
Correct.
>> I didn't say sold puts. So, >> no, no, you didn't. You you said it this morning.
>> I heard you. Okay. So, I didn't hear. My bad. My bad. Okay. So, you're bullish.
That is a bullish position. Correct. My bad.
>> Right. And so, you got you got a couple of things. You have one more thing here.
This was a very long uh uh term up barely uptrending channel that we've been in for basically almost a year, right? And now we've actually increased our we've increased the momentum, you know, from this now like There we've increased the momentum from this now to this, right? And so, uh, I'm just loving I'm loving what I'm seeing right now. What I'm seeing is, uh, we got ourselves, you know, higher highs, higher low, higher high. Probably going to put in another higher low right around here and then back up from there is what I'm thinking.
>> Uh, at what price do you have that um that very last um higher low done?
>> The last higher low. Correct.
>> Uh right in through here. If it comes in about here, right here >> and then your snapback's 212. Wouldn't hurt to actually wick through and hit snap back and come back up. So right in this whole area.
>> Yeah, we are on the same page. It's like a a potential pullback. I'm not saying that that will be the case, but a potential pullback down to that level 205 210 could be a potential buy the div opportunity.
>> 212. Uh, you know, I did, you know what I did yesterday, Alvaro? Uh, yesterday I actually sold a put going into earnings that was only that was going to expire within two days.
>> Getting into the casino. I like it.
>> Well, listen to this. It was going to expire within two days. It was a $215 put and then it was $300 on the premium.
That would take me right down to right here. So, if I if it ended up ripping down, then I was like, "Okay, you know what? That's a good spot.
That's probably a spot where it's actually going to pick up some legs and get back up again. And if it doesn't, I'm okay with actually owning it or even possibly going in some more. But I only put it for two days because it was 90% IV going into earnings, right? And so the next day I woke up, I pretty much maxed out the $300. I took the money and I ran.
>> Yeah. Do you remember that that two years ago or so we had a conversation um two years I think and media was trading at at 120 bucks. Do you remember Dan? and we had a conversation two years ago, two and a half years ago and um so you asked me about the fundamentals of the company because you know that I like financial analysis and stuff and everyone was talking about you know the bubble and Nvidia and Nvidia's going down and Jensen is full of [ __ ] and stuff and I told you bro I mean the short looks bullish yeah the stock is I mean the stock is in sheep but um the the commercial execution of the company is is pretty much Perfect. So from a fundamental standpoint and especially from a financial standpoint and I'm not I'm not talking about the demand for the you know for Nvidia services and and its hardware and stuff. Um so I don't see much downside potential and you told me yeah I think this stock is going up and now we are at 215 bucks and now I got to ask you um so is this another Nvidia is at 120 bucks uh type of situation and the risk could be to the upside.
>> Well it's you know when you're looking at and I'm sure Donnie can actually speak to this. I want to I want to show you one more technical thing uh before I jump throw it over to Donnie. But uh when you're speaking about um uh valuations of of like all these chip companies, this one here is undervalued compared to like AMD and the other >> 18 times forward earnings.
>> Yeah.
>> 18 times forward earnings. We can make this up. It's insane.
>> Now, this is what I wanted to show you on the technical analysis is this. Uh I'm look I'm projecting that it's actually going to get up in the near term. It's actually going to get up to this 250 mark. You got yourself a ABC pattern here. Very nice ABC pattern as far as I'm concerned.
>> And this ABC pattern, the predicted move on this is right there. That's why you have that magenta line right there. So, it's just a little over 250. Uh I'm hoping I'm hoping and thinking that it's actually going to uh you know continue to pick up support off of this down ch channel right here or the downward side of the upward channel. And I don't I'm not so sure it's actually going to come in below this. But you also have the 50 period moving average that can come up and give a little more support if it does lose it. I'd love to see it continue to retain this very long-term daily trend line right there. So right now it's just kind of like consolidating underneath of it, which is actually bullish. That's bullish for that action.
If it goes sideways to here, it'll probably actually explode going up higher is my thoughts. Uh Donnie, did you have anything you want to mention?
>> Yeah, I I wanted to ask Danny. Um so gross margin came out at 75%.
So um the competitors are not showing.
So um gross margin came out at 75%. So analysts were expecting 75.5. So I mean come on. So um at least from at least from a gross margin standpoint, competitors are nowhere to be found as a happy shareholder of Nvidia. Uh, I'm talking about you, Danny. Um, aren't you aren't you concerned about competition here?
No.
>> Really? Nothing. Zero >> 18 18 times forward. Yeah, we've priced it in.
It's in the stock.
>> There you go.
>> Any further >> I guess.
>> No, I I mean, seriously, >> pricing that was a very >> I mean, I got to hand it I got to hand it to B just off the top ropes. raising the price target to 500, just being like, "Screw it. It's going to be the first 10 trillion company. Why Why bother getting in the way of this?"
It's halfway there. More than halfway there. Why not? Is I guess the way I would put it, the way I would try to phrase it, like in my mind, and we play this game every so often, too big, too small, >> is 5.7 trillion dollars. too big or too small for the most important company on the planet involved in perhaps the next stage of the industrial revolution.
I don't know. Too small. It's not too big. Not too big.
I I I'm trying not to get in the way of success here. It's really really hard to ride winners. It's harder to ride winners uh than it is to cut losers in my opinion.
>> Yeah. Now, the report you've you've been you've been paid you've been paid to hold on to this one.
>> Um what would be your your warning signal, Danny? So, take a I mean revenue 81 billion 85% um revenue growth on a year-over-year basis. Net income is like $ 58 billion in net income. I mean, this is insane. I think that they announced, didn't they announce a uh an an $80 billion um buyback program, I think.
>> Yeah, I think incremental buyer is now Nvidia, which is helpful. It's also very Appleesque when everyone was asking who else was going to buy Apple and then Apple went ahead and bought Apple. I think they shrunk the share count by like 30% in five years, something like that.
>> Guys, look at this. So, they have $80 billion in cash. 80 >> Mhm. billion dollars in cash. Uh long-term debt is at seven billion. This is insane. So, of course, I mean, if you So, I I think I think that the buyback Danny and Don has of course it has an effect. It will have an effect on EPS and stuff, but the the message in my opinion, the main message that Jensen wanted to get across is like my stock is undervalued.
>> I'm gonna I'm gonna buy back my stock.
>> That's it. So, it's I'm trading as a company. I'm trading with a forward P ratio of 22, the lowest forward P ratio in years. Um, thanks to the growth that the company has, I'm gonna buy back my stock. Period. For stuff, it's undervalued.
>> I think what's >> I mean, I don't I don't think, Donnie, that someone that is investing in Nvidia is thinking about a dividend or about a buyback.
>> It doesn't matter. This company is growing revenue at a at an 80%.
>> The shareholder base of Nvidia does not care about the cash flow being spun out in a dividend at all.
>> 100%. That's not why they're there in the >> 100% 100%.
>> I think what's what's becoming an interesting little, let's call it quirk of the Nvidia balance sheet is that they're effectively becoming a Bergkshire Hathaway of technology stocks. They're just taking stakes in the companies that they need to grow like the Nokia of the world uh for example to like to to push forward the innovation that they see.
It's it's interesting like like we often talk about how there are things that CEOs can control and can't control like there are things that are within Nvidia's ability to impact. I find it interesting that Nvidia is in a way stacking the cards in its favor by basically writing checks, equity checks to other companies in the ecosystem that they need to grow. It's it's a self-perpetuating prophecy in a very different way from when people talk about circular financing in the do bubble.
>> Yeah. And look um so we have a a we have a formal price target at 500 bucks.
That's bar right there.
>> That's bar.
>> Mhm.
>> That is bar 500 bucks.
>> Yeah. Five trillion or 10 trillion market cap.
>> Yeah. Yeah. 100%. 100%.
>> Hey Don, do did you see Nvidia reing a market capitalization of 10?
>> I don't know. But you know it was uh it was shortly after that a couple years ago we had that conversation. I also told you Nvidia would become the largest uh capitalization company on the market.
Uh and that was when >> I remember the I remember the bears guys and this is a very clear memory for me >> um talking about a multigenerational top when the stock um reached a 100 bucks.
This is too I mean that was 1,000. It was before a a stock split that they carried out and now it's 300 bucks.
Amazing.
>> Amazing what they've done. It's pretty insane.
>> Deserve every bit of it. They have driven this whole thing. Uh Jensen is like the godfather of AI. Okay. However, however, >> I'm not I've been saying >> Google is going to rule the planet.
Overtake them. eventually. I'm telling you, I still I'm I put my I'm betting on Google now.
>> Listen, man. I think eventually is doing all of the lifting in that sentence.
>> I mean, how many how many years before that happen?
>> Let's say three to four years. I think it's going to happen pretty quickly.
>> Yeah.
>> Okay. No idea. There's no reason to sell.
>> I get a little >> Well, no.
>> I'm I'm I'm only I'm only picking on the word eventually because for the last, let's call it let's call it nine months, everyone has said the the the tom foolery, shall we say, in the DRAM had to end. It just has to end. It can't keep going.
>> Oh, yeah.
>> And it does. And it does until it doesn't.
>> Yeah. But you and I Yeah. But >> until it doesn't eventually is doing a lot of work eventually is doing a lot of work.
>> Yeah. In the case of memory in the case of memory um stocks I mean that kind of companies they are cyclical D. We know that cyclicality will be knocking on the door eventually. They are we know that >> you cannot hike prices forever >> if you are you know manufacturing manufacturing memory for >> for semiconductors but you know I mean but that's what you got. Hey guys listen up. Let's talk about the disaster.
>> Let's talk about the disaster of the day into it.
>> Absolutely unbelievable.
So here's the deal guys. Um they reported better than expected. Um they raised guidance. There were some details. They are doing some they are restructuring some aspects of the business.
>> So they they they said that they were going to there were going to be a 300 $300 million you know negative effect because of some restructuring that they were carrying out and stuff. But get this guys. So the stock taking and taking into account the massive drop that it had it went down like a 100 bucks. So the market capitalization of the company uh was reduced down to 80 billion and they announced an 8 billion buyback program. It's crazy.
A 10% buyback program. They lay they are laying off like um 15 or 20% of its workforce. something like that. Mhm.
>> Bro, so the same the negative sentiment in regards to software stocks >> is way worse than we thought. This is >> insane.
>> The last >> do you have any I mean I I can show you guys a technical chart. So I mean the stock is trading at prices that we haven't seen in six years guys. Take a look at this into >> this is insane. It's pretty insane. I mean guys I I am I am not a buyer. I am not a a bottom fisher. I I am not a trader of of of of downtrends of course.
But I mean this could be a potential buy the deep opportunity guys into it >> broke the dip opportunity forever.
>> Look at that 300. Okay daddy let me ask you something. Okay.
>> What happens when the dip keeps dipping?
>> This is this is not good.
>> I know. I know. Of course, I am not making a bullish case here, but listen up.
>> This stock was trading at 306 bucks in September of 2020.
>> Mhm.
>> This is really mindblowing guys. So they so they reported better than expect better than expected raised guidance.
They are laying off people which usually you know is good news for the markets.
And on top of that, they are announcing a buyback program that equals 10% of the total market capitalization of this company. This is one of the most impressive um sell I mean yeah sell offs that I that I've ever seen. I got to be honest with you. It's crazy.
>> So this >> So when are you going to buy the dip, Donnie?
>> I'm never going to buy that dip. I'll tell you why. This this is this is Adobe. Everyone realized that even though Adobe has okay numbers, you're now going to be able to spend $30 a month, significantly less than the $200, $300 a month for the Adobe suite to get all of this all of this uh all of these tools. I think what everyone's figured out about intuitive >> is that there's already a number of >> So, you think this is an overshoot, Danny?
>> No, I think Well, is it an overshoot?
Maybe. We'll see. Uh, I don't think the earnings are going to fall off as quickly as what that suggests. But it it didn't matter for Adobe. It didn't matter for CRM. It didn't matter for Service Now.
>> I think this is the easiest one to make the disruption case for. There's already people that, correct me if I'm wrong, intuitive is tax, right? It's taxes.
>> But you know what?
>> People that do their own taxes.
>> I mean, every single every single accountant >> uses Intuit. I have a lot of accountants >> until until they start using Claude until they start I mean how much is into it?
>> So we so okay so we are in the same situation that we were with with Crowd Strike or Palo Alto.
>> Oh everyone is going >> No, we're not. No, these are completely and utterly different. I won't. No, I'm not standing for that.
>> No one is going out there. This is this is high stakes and low stakes. High stakes into it, Donnie. They they I mean every single accountant in the world is using QuickBooks. So this disruption I think this is an go ahead done.
>> Okay then buy it. You first. You first.
You first. I'm not touching this [ __ ] I'm not touching this [ __ ] Mm- >> No. No. That's okay. Okay.
>> Is it Is this an ABC pattern or an LL pattern? Dude, this is brutal.
>> That's That's a bare flag. Bear flag.
Bear flag. Bear flag.
>> You want to buy this bear flag right here? El be my guest. And another one, >> bro.
>> Hey, tell me when loser, it crushed It crushed the hopes of everybody who wanted to Oh, let me get this a little bit bigger. Okay. It crushed the hopes of everybody who actually wanted to buy. Where's IGV?
Where did it go to?
>> There you go. Right there. It crushed everybody to right below. IGV again was trying to get some legs >> and just like what happened with Service Now when Service Now came out and actually ruined the whole IGV momentum.
Once again, IGV is now back down on the bottom of the freaking charts and it can't get any legs. And this is this just destroyed IGV. Actually, this is one of the things that I brought up in my pre-market report that I sent out on a daily basis. Very important. Uh the sentiment now on the software space is uh negative as a while to get over it.
However, >> super negative it doesn't change.
>> However, this part of the software cyber it's starting to put some legs. So, I'd keep an eye on this one as long as we're actually just kind of mentioning that kind of stuff.
>> Is that >> It's It's like um It's like >> Oh, that's ETF. That's right. Yeah.
Okay. Okay. Yeah.
>> Yeah.
No, I got I got you.
>> Yeah, let me >> I got you.
>> Let me show you something, guys. So, check this out.
>> Um, >> here. If you want to look the opposite of intuitit, you could just look up Crowd Strike's chart.
>> Yeah, but look, revenue still growing 11% on a year on a year-over-year basis.
Net income, no problem. $3 billion on net income.
>> I hate, dude. I mean, like, it it is good. I understand the business is cyclical, but like they should do something to figure it out. That's brutal. But Donnie, we can make a case.
We all agree on the fact that the technical short is absolute garbage. So we I mean we agree on that. We agree on the fact that this company could be a potential candidate for disruption from artificial intelligence. But take a look at the commercial execution of the company. And get this guys, check this out. So let's look at the ratios. It is trading at 14 times forward earnings >> on Yeah. Mhm.
>> believable. So >> I I don't Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
>> No, no. So the technical short is absolutely broken. If I mean there could be more downside potential here. But guys if at some point in time the software the cohort as you say Danny as a whole can you know shake off a little bit this pessimism in regards to artificial intelligence. Check this out.
So, this could be a candidate for for a I'm not even gonna say a comeback story, but >> I mean, >> this is going to be Adobe.
>> But how do you know that Adobe will be disrupted?
>> Cuz it has >> I mean it no but but but Adobe is doing fine from a commercial standpoint execution.
>> It would be doing it would be doing a lot better if not for the fact people were just spending 20 bucks on Canva.
>> Danny, >> it would be doing a lot better. Can we can we agree on the fact that the that the disruption the brutal disruption that everyone is afraid about hasn't show hasn't shown up yet like like we cannot see it yet.
>> So um so this isn't this this is I mean so far I know that there will be winners and losers. We agree on that. Of course, in this software, >> I'm talking about the groups of people that are forming companies like right now.
They're not using Adobe. There's too many free software applications out there. There's too many things that cost literally a tenth of the cost. And while it hasn't shown up in the numbers yet, the point I'm making is >> there were expectations that this would be doing better. People thought that this would be an AI beneficiary, myself included. And I thankfully I'm still not in this thing but okay it's just it hasn't been >> even though the numbers would would make it appear so >> the markets are anticipating this situation but take a look at Adobe this is take a look at take a look at the revenue and I know Adobe sounds like a perfect candidate for disruption but again so the quote unquote disruption isn't showing up on the income statements of these companies. So um since that is the case uh and from a commercial standpoint >> uh commercial execution standpoint I need to say that these companies are still innocent until proven guilty. The technical shorts say otherwise. The technical shorts say that um all of these companies will be will be disrupted by artificial intelligence.
But again from a commercial execution standpoint these companies are still innocent. So I don't know the markets are anticipating this and and and I'm not going to I am not arguing with the net aggregate opinion of the markets but take a look at Adobe. Take a look at the at the ratios. I mean at the ratios I mean can the markets be mistaken about this? This company is trading at 10 times forward earnings. It's crazy.
>> Why do you buy technology?
>> I still believe that this is an overshoot man in in in in most cases.
>> Sure. Maybe. Maybe. I I I mean but by how much it we're talking about the the terminal value of these companies. You know what I'm really I I love that analysis that you just got done doing, Alro, and that was a powerful argument, >> but I think I think the chart that I would really want to see is like how are they doing in regards to new subscribers? Going back to what Donnie had actually mentioned because I'm kind of in that space. I also besides doing stock chart, I also have actual consulting and I do AI work and work with CEOs and stuff like that. So, uh, a person like me, I would not buy an I looked at Adobe. I considered Adobe, but when I looked at the cost and what it actually was bringing to the table and I even I even used used it for a while, the professional version, uh, and then I compared it to like Da Vinci and some other ones and I'm using the other ones.
I'm getting just as much or more out of them. I'm doing it even quicker probably. And Adobe, not only did Adobe actually cost more, but they they nitpicked me. They wanted to charge me for every other little thing. And that drove me absolutely nuts. And that kind of gave me a negative feel about for what's going on with their business case business model. So I would love to see and may maybe you can find this somewhere. I would love to see what are the new subscribers for Adobe and uh you know that their revenue is probably going up on the fact on the back of people who actually already know Adobe.
They don't want to change. They've already invested in it. They they they built uh pieces to it. So they want to stay with the same system. So that income's going to still go up with those people. But >> new subscribers, are they losing the old subscribers?
>> That's a good point.
>> Yeah. So no and and I am I am not making a bullish case for 40 to1 you know into it or Adobe the thing is that they are hitting every single software company stock every single um software stock out there I mean regardless of whatever it's service now Microsoft >> I mean but I mean 98% of these stocks the stock of of the stocks in the IGV are in major down trends it's level IBM levels to this >> correct but in general terms ani so some of these companies will be winners >> and that implies that >> I mean there must be some overts um there got to be some overshoots >> in regards to one of I I don't know some of these companies let's just put it that way as of now it is I mean it is it is very difficult to defend any of any of these any of these stocks or companies for that matter it's a disaster the software the software space is a total a complete a complete disaster and in the case of in it I mean it's trading at 14 times forward earnings so I guess that that at some point in time value investors will find value in into it IT or Adobe I mean that that hasn't been the case so far you had a uh you had a um bullish slightly bullish descending uh channel here and it actually came out of that but look Now this is Adobe, right? This is Adobe on a chart. Okay, it came out of that. And where it should have came out of it is somewhere around right here, >> right? It should have actually bounced up to here. But look what happened.
>> Look how weak this was. It came out of it barely. It barely stuck its head out and then it said, "Okay, that's it. This is all I'm going to do right here."
>> Yeah. I mean, so far, every single bounce on the vast majority of these stocks um has been a a sold the rib opportunity. Buyers are trapped all over the place. The the the overhead supply is massive, but what I guess that at some point in time, I mean, the IGB is actually starting to look a bit better, but it is it is 100 day moving average.
>> It is a full below a decline into 100 DMA. So I mean buyers still have a a do do you happen to have a a a short Danny or I can show I can show you guys. It is trading below a declining 100 DMA. I mean the IGV >> and uh >> yeah I mean still guilty until proven innocent guys. I mean you know >> yeah look this is a clearly declining 300 day moving average >> and I mean I mean there's a this is a nice bounce. This is a how much? This is a 25% bounce, but but again still below a decline into 100 DMA. So say that the IGV breaks the 5 DMA to the downside. We could see a retest of the 20 and the 100 DMA, >> which are pretty much coinciding at around 88 bucks. And if this 100 EMA breaks to the downside, we were talking about four bucks. This could this could break this could be broken to the downside in no time.
>> So we are we'll be once again >> I don't hate the way I you're right. It is below the 200 day, but I don't mind the way that looks. That's that's higher highs and higher lows. I mean, that's that's just >> stairstepping potential consolidation above 92 bucks.
>> I mean, I mean, here's another one for you that looks good. Look up take two uh TTO.
>> Take two.
>> Well, I mean, okay, Danny, get this. The IGV is still 22% of the highs. Still in a market.
>> Yeah. And I mean, I think Bur is uh Bur's been buying some software names.
He I mean he buys whatever has a very low P ratio. That's his style.
>> I think he's just trying to be Mr. I think he's just trying to be Mr. Contrarian.
>> Maybe.
>> Yeah. But you also need a P ratio below 15. So otherwise he doesn't buy it.
>> You're right. Right. Right. Right.
>> Let me let me share a chart with you guys because I think this is an interesting one in the software space.
Uh a lot of people think that some of the art and it's funny like we're talking about how some of the artistic stuff is getting um uh uh what do you call it? Disrupted by AI. uh Spotify until today, apparently. We'll see how that goes. It's a It's a crazy candle, but we're not going to talk about that.
This is a Take Two Interactive. This is a six-month chart. And let me make this a little size that differently for us.
>> Okay. I mean, looks better than the IGV, but very similar. You just have these.
It goes up, consolidates, goes up, consolidates, goes up. Uh this is all in anticipation of GTA 6. GTA V was the greatest money maker in video game history. I like the way this chart looks. Um, let's change this up a little bit.
It is recently made. It's now above the I think it's above the 200 day now. Yep.
Tested the 200 day in red here.
Consolidating above it. Has some work to do, but >> yeah, >> I'm liking the way this is looking.
People people thought that video games would get disrupted and >> not so people Donnie we were talking about this last week people are thinking that Netflix will be disrupted by artificial intelligence I mean this I mean this is >> there's a lot of insanity you know within this narrative that that artificial intelligence is going to change the world a lot of insanity in my opinion I am not and I am not a tech expert of course but I mean give me a break so now I'm gonna I'm gonna watch a movie that my neighbor made with artificial intelligence in and and I will be canceling my Netflix subscription. So, >> and by the way, I don't know if you guys noticed >> and I I have noticed. So, both Netflix and Meta were included inside the IGV.
>> I mean, not formally, you you see what I'm saying? So whenever and keep an eye on that guys whenever they start hitting the IGV immediately right away they are hitting Meta and Netflix because both companies are candidates for disruption uh because of artificial intelligence.
I don't know. Um, it's so funny.
>> I would say that there are a lot of potential buy the deep opportunities out there >> within all of this, you know, software apocalypse >> more likely than not, but you need to pick your winners. So, you know, or pick the the the ETF as you say, Danny.
>> Well, it I think the ETF just looks better than many of the names people are talking about. Like, it looks better than Service Now. It looks better than Palunteer. It looks better than Microsoft. Uh, not to say that those names won't benefit if the IGV breaks out, but I don't see the point in buying relative underperformance.
Find the ones that are carrying the index higher. Now, I I looked at the IGB yesterday because I was curious um how much Crowd Strike and PaloAlto were in there given their recent runs. It's five it's about four and a half% a piece. So 9% of the IGV is cyber security which answers for a lot of the outperformance but or sorry recent performance but are I mean the rest the rest of the index doesn't I mean it has data dog has take two has EA that has the the Saudi underpinning them with the uh the buyout there there are some winners in there but they're just not where you would expect.
>> Well I got that Hold on a second. I got that right over here. Hey guys. Um, >> watch.
>> Yeah, guys, I got to go because um I need to go live once again for the members of the tier four. So, you guys go ahead and finish.
>> We've been here an hour. We'll finish it up and we'll uh wrap it up. Send it over. Okay. Thank you for stopping by.
>> Yeah, perfect. Yeah, you were just talking about there's data dog, there's PNW.
>> All right, let's finish it up.
>> They're all at the top of the list today. Uh and uh then here's your here's Adobe and Service Now it's CRM that are underperforming the IGV. So your IGV, let's just say it's over here at the zero mark. And here's your overperformers for today. Oracle Oracle's been starting to look pretty good, right? Okay.
>> Yeah. Shockingly.
>> Uh yeah. Uh yeah, I think Oracle's one to actually look at. And you know, Microsoft actually has really been uh it's like a tease. You know that Microsoft's a tease. You keep thinking it's going to break out. You keep thinking that, okay, the date's going to turn out really good and then it doesn't.
Anyhow, yeah, it's been it's been so into it team workday, Adobe, now they're all down on the bottom.
>> Hello everybody. Sorry about that. Um, shortly after Alvaro dropped off, there was a weird thing happening between myself and Don's uh, timeline. I was 2 or 3 seconds delayed. It came out a jumbled mess. Didn't want to put you through that, but I did want to quickly just thank everyone for tuning in uh, to Charts and Checks episode 44. All the links uh, for my work and Don's work are below. And I hope to see you next week.
Appreciate your understanding. Have a great weekend. And if you're celebrating Memorial Day, enjoy the extra day off.
Bye-bye.
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