HRPA Session 3

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00][Music] a very warm welcome to all of you the topic for this session are various causes the factors that affects the demand of human talent and forecasting techniques so we will be covering demand forecasting techniques and supply forecasting techniques this is just a brief introduction about these topics and we will be discussing these topics in detail in the classroom session moving to the first topic which is factors influencing the forecasting the firms estimate how many employees they will be requiring in the future the demand for human talent at various level is affected by three main factors first one is external challenges second is organizational decisions and third one is workforce factors coming to the very first factor which is external challenges we have three most important sources under this head economic developments political legal social technological changes and competition with liberalization opening up of various different different sectors by banking sectors mergers capital market reforms there's a huge demand for certain professionals for example finance professional pharmaceutical fmcg such and the like the demand for certain categories of employees and skills is also influenced by the changes in the political legals in social structure in an economy firms employing latest technology has greatly enhanced the worth of technicians and engineers in a couple of years to the competition companies are operating in fields where there's a large number of players are bent upon cutting each other's throat which often reduces the workforce and thus the competition affects the demand moving to the organizational decision if organization wants to expand or contract wants to create a new venture obviously it will impact the demand of employees there are other workforce factors the demand is modified by retirement termination resignation death leaves of absence and the like which affects the employees needs moving to the techniques of hr demand forecasting so these are the different demand forecasting techniques such as management judgment ratio trend analysis flow models delphi technique work study techniques and others so talking about the first technique in this managers sit together discuss and arrive at a figure which would be the future demand for the labor the technique may involve a bottom-up or a top-down approach ratio trend analysis is a technique which involves studying past ratios like between the number of workers and sales in the unorganization and forecasting future ratios making some allowances for the changes in the organization or its methods work study techniques can be used when it is possible to apply work measurements to calculate the length of operations and the amount of labor required delphi techniques solid sites estimates of personal needs from a group of experts usually managers these human resource planning experts act as a intermediaries flow models are the simplest one they determine the time that should be covered they establish categories such as states to which employees can be assigned they count annual movement of employees over different several periods and thus estimate the probability of transition from one state to another [Music] so talking about these different forecasting techniques starting from the very first one which is expert forecast in this method managers estimate future human resource requirement using their experiences and judgments this is a basically qualitative technique in trend analysis hr needs can be estimated by examining past trend which is an quantitative approach in workforce analysis the average loss of manpower due to leave retirement death transfer discharge and the like during the last five years may be taken into an account and then on the basis of this we can find out the future requirements workload analysis talks about determining the future requirements on the basis of workload analysis wherein the company tries to calculate the number of persons required for various jobs with reference reference to a planned output after giving weightage to the factors such as absenteeism idol time and the like there are also certain different qualitative models such as delphi technique and nominal group method we can also take help of mathematical models and with the help of computers we can forecast hr needs such as optimization models budget planning analysis regression techniques and the like talking about the supply forecasting techniques to determine whether management will be able to procure the required number of personal and the sources of such procurement we go for hr supply forecast determining whether the firm will be able to secure employees with the necessary skills and from what sources these individuals may be obtained it shows whether the needed employees may be obtained from within the organization outside the organization or from a combination of the both there are three categories under this existing source of employees internal source of employees and external source of employees so these are the basic different supply forecasting techniques if i talk about the internal labor supply we have staffing table markov analysis skill inventory replacement charts the basic purpose of preparing manpower inventory is to find out the size and quality of personal available within the organization to manage different positions if i talk about the internal labor supply there are important forecasting techniques for such as staffing table which shows the number of employees in the job and it classifies the employees on the basis of their age sex position category experience qualification and skills so as to check out whether these employees are properly utilized or not markov analysis talks about past probabilities and one can estimate the number of employees in the various position in the future skill inventory is an assessment of knowledge skills ability experience and career aspirations of each of the current employees these records should be updated very frequently replacement charts shows the profile of job holders department wise and it actually offers a snapshot of who will replace whom the next one is external labour supply the external labor supplies talks about how to get the candidates externally when the organization grows rapidly and it is being diversifying into some new areas of operations in that case you might not be able to find the people internally to fill those vacancies in that situation you will be taking the help of external labor supply so you can go for certain external hirings and you can take the help of certain human resource information system for this thank you