Legacy automakers are struggling to transition to electric vehicles because they are not fully committed to the EV revolution, with companies like Mazda delaying their first dedicated EV platform until 2029 and cutting EV investments in half, while Tesla dominates the US EV market with 100,000+ sales in Q1 alone, and full self-driving technology is becoming the key differentiator that will determine which automakers survive the industry transformation.
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Legacy Automakers Are Running Out Of Time! Here’s WhyAdded:
As the world transitions beyond just electric vehicles, but now self-driving transportation, what will happen to the legacy automakers? They either don't seem to get it or are just stuck in a hard place and are only now trying to survive. While Tesla sales are now rebounding, and this is happening before even full self-driving technology becomes a true demand driver, Legacy Auto seem to be dying at slow death.
Audi just released their brand new Q9, a three row SUV for the US market, but the interior already looks 8 years old.
Mazda just announced it's once again slowing down its transition to electric vehicles and is now delaying the launch of their first dedicated EV platform until at least 2029. They also cut in half their investments in EVs and instead focusing on hybrids and gas cars. Honda strategy is unraveling worldwide as the CEO tears up his old plan and draws a new one in the face of the company's first ever fullyear loss.
Porsche will cut more than 500 jobs and is exiting three non-car making business lines as the company focuses on its core luxury vehicles. Today, let's explore what to expect. It's clear though the status quo is about to be disrupted big time. We have Brian White joining us today. He's one of our only true Tesla journalists. Check out his YouTube channel, Futurazza, for exclusive onground factory tours and interviews.
Welcome, Brian.
>> Great to be here. Yeah, lots to cover.
Excited to get into it. I mean this notion that the automakers are dead. Uh it's not happened. We haven't seen anyone. Some are really at the brink though, right? Nissan, Honda.
>> Yeah, Nissan's really struggling.
Subaru's numbers are quite bad. It's surprising to me. If you'd have asked me 10 years ago from which country would the Lagards be, I would not have guessed Japan. They've been very forward thinking with their engineering up until, you know, now. Uh so this is unfortunate but hey it's where we're at >> now. The signs are all there though. Uh we've been reporting left, right, and center just pullbacks, massive losses, right downs of EV investments, sales not happening, uh firings, closing down of factories, uh pulling back their plans for EVs. Almost everyone has has done this. Tesla, of course, has now rebounded, it looks like, across the world for EV sales, and they're at the brink of introducing full self-driving, which uh is going to be a demand driver.
But the car makers, I wanted to see what your thinking is of how much longer we should wait for them.
>> Here's Audi, brand new Q9. Great, great company. I like Audi's a lot. Here's a three U three row SUV for the US market.
And then Sawyer thinks that the interior already looks eight years old. Um, >> yeah. Well, mo I mean, if I only had one question, it would be what what what are you guys doing here? Are you getting paid by the button? This is uh honestly it doesn't look 8 years old or 10 years old. To me, this looks like Nightrider from the 80s. Again, I just do not know what you're doing. The other day I made a post on X where uh it was in reply to Jim Farley who said we are all in on EVs and I said you are not. That is a lie.
That is demonstrabably false. And a bunch of Ford defenders jumped up and said no no no they are. I said do you know what allin means? If I'm 20 or 25% in on something that's not allin. If I'm playing poker and I push a quarter of my chips forward and go I'm all in. They'll say do you know what that word means?
No, I don't because I'm built Ford tough. Uh, and really I think the slogan is actually built forward tough. So, I think that these these guys are not all in. They're it's all half measures.
They're they're they're not serious and they're going to have to get serious and they know that. So, when it comes to Ford and GM, they're prime bailout candidates if they get to that point.
They're nowhere near that point because they're selling the most profitable dino burners for now. people. Oh, Toyota, they're going to be bankrupt in 10 years or five year. Guys, they're not. They are too big to fail and they're profitable right now. What a lot of these companies are doing though is retreating to their own borders, which is not how you win an international um place, you know, it's it's it's a war and you if you're fighting it at home, you're on the defense. You're at risk of being conquered. They are um struggling.
And if you're not selling the powertrain that is going to be mandatory in every developed country where car sales are big, if you're not winning that race, you're not in the correct race.
>> Very good points. I my thing about this is that you have to think about the three regions. You got the Asia-Pacific, China, and then specifically China, let's say, let's call it that. Then you've got Europe, and then you got North America. Each one of them have different rates of EV adoption. So in China, they just hit their all-time high. 40 plus percentage of all new cars sold there now electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, not hybrid.
If you add the hybrids, it's been well over 50% since last year. They are the leaders. That transition has clearly happened. And so hundreds of EV companies, they're battling it out. And that's the blood bath that's happening there. But all sales or few car companies are surviving who sell hybrids or most more like the gas cars. So we've seen German cars, the legacy US cars, American cars retreat. They're no longer they used to have 15% of their sales in China. That's gone. In Europe that's again rebounding and most is electric vehicle that's happening there as well.
And that's where you're seeing the struggles of the European legacy autos.
In the US though, luckily for them, they it's only know what 9% of all sales here are electric vehicles, maybe jumping up to 10% this year. It's much slower here.
These guys have a longer lifeline than the others, but they they're watching their global uh presence decrease.
They're losing sales everywhere except for the US, and that's what's keeping them up. So these guys, they can retreat back to gas cars and to hybrids, which is basically a fake gas car pretending to be an EV. Uh, and then and then that's how they're that's how they'll survive for a lot longer. That's but but you know, everyone else, they're struggling big time.
>> I just wanted to give a quick explanation for folks who might not know the difference between a hybrid and an extended range EV because they both burn dyno juice. There's no mistaking that.
But the real difference is a hybrid is a gas car that has some electric components that help drive it. And an ERV is an electric car with a generator.
Uh those can be a little bit more efficient than a hybrid uh if you build it right, but who knows who's actually building them right or even trying these days. This last weekend I went down to Plat Automotive uh Plat Auto Group in Milwaukee, Oregon. did four test drives of four vehicles that were not Teslas uh to make reviews. They're coming out all through this week.
>> The Wagon Ear S. What are you thinking?
The Cadillac Lyric, not much better. Uh it's just crazy to see. And all of them are just cars. It's very disappointing.
>> Yep. Let's uh take a look at other announcements. All of this happened in the last two days, by the way. So, it's it's pretty scary. Mazda delays first dedicated EV to 2029 as it doubles down on hybrids. They're again slowing down their transition to EVs, announcing it will delay the launch of its first dedicated EV until 2029. Jeez. And then uh they're also reducing their EV investment through 2030 from 1.5 which is what is this 1.5 >> 8ish billion 10 9 billion >> yen >> to roughly 830 billion yen. So about half almost half >> that's it. and they're redirecting their resources towards hybrids and internal combustion development as global demand for hybrid vehicles continues to grow.
The Mazda CEO said the company intentionally avoided overcommitting to EV spending too early, a strategy he now suggests is paying off.
We didn't turned out to be the right call by not moving, which is true. uh as as as automakers around the world reassess electrification plans amid softer than expected EV demand. That's what they're blaming it on. And of course the re regulations in North America and Europe. We made the decision before we started for battery EVs. We were always careful. That's his thinking.
>> So that's that's a real dumb take by Mazda. And I'm just going to step in here and correct them. They're saying it's a good thing we didn't train for the marathon because our flight wound up cancelled. No, no, no. you should have trained for the marathon. You didn't know that the flight was getting cancelled. Uh so very very backwards take. They're justifying their inaction, their laziness, and their complacency.
And I'm sorry, Mazda, but I'm not here for it. Yeah, that that was a it's a good excuse. And then here's their plans. They are going to focus on hybrids. They're wrapping instead of wrapping up EVs, they're planning to focus heavily on hybrids over the next several years. the redesigned CX-5. It's going to arrive with a hybrid v variant in 2027.
Uh plans to launch three additional hybrid models 2028 and 2030. So basically hybrids are gas cars and they're going to add a little thing just to pretend that it's uh anything other than that. So that's sad, but that's what they're doing. That's what they have to do.
>> Um I'm looking up to see what year. So yeah, I thought so. So, the Prius is over 30 years old.
>> You couldn't have done that then, Mazda.
You couldn't have followed them within five or 10 years. You waited a generation and a half. You waited until your current college graduate engineers were nearing retirement to actually make your first hybrids. That is insane. Uh, if Mazda fails, I would point to that and say, "This is why you deserve to.
You could have given your customers 30% better gas mileage and you chose not to.
How dare you? That's my thinking.
>> Mazda's not going to survive. Honda's not going to survive. Nissan's not going to survive. And they tried. Honda and Nissan tried to merge and then they broke up. And then now and then everybody I asked in that in that space, they said, "Are these guys too big to fail?" And they're not. Toyota is too big to fail. But these three, I think >> the government's going to let them die.
That's the problem. When we saw the merger, that was the first thing I think you and I discussed was if they merge two of them or three of them, they become too big to fail and then they just couldn't get along. So, all right.
Well, I mean, good luck. I'm I'm sure you'll do great.
>> That's Honda Nissan. And here's Honda.
The latest story on Honda was that their CEO said that the their strategy is unraveling worldwide. And he so he teared up his old plan and draws up a new one in the face of the company's first ever fullyear loss. They're on the way out. Embattled CEO scrambles for reboot in face of historic loss from bad bet on EVs.
Good thing uh good thing Maza didn't bad.
>> Well, and it's it's a good thing we didn't go on that trip. We might have gotten food. Yes. But you might have also had a fantastic trip. And there are ways to avoid food poisoning on trips.
You should have gone. You should have had the adventure. Yeah, you stayed home and did the safe thing, but now you haven't grown as a person or as an auto company, I guess. All right, those are the Japanese ones. And here's more news about European companies. Porsche will cut more than 500 jobs and exit three non-car making business lines as the company refocuses on its core luxury vehicles.
>> What? Three non-car making business lines? I don't know what they are.
>> Does that mean I have to get my my Porsche hat from Teeu now?
>> I don't know what they're talking about.
Yeah, definitely. Focus. I don't know.
Porsche's made some pretty tragic missteps. That was a real profit center in the VW group. Um I don't know how they've goofed it so bad, but u you know, big, loud, noisy, fast cars are maybe not what they used to be.
Fortunately, you've got the geniuses at Mercedes-Benz injecting V8 noises into it. And Jack at Plaid Auto was telling me he goes, "Oh, it's better." And he told me which car.
But there's some cars where you can set it in gas car mode. And what it'll do is not just make the vroomi vroomies, but you have to shift. And if you don't shift in time, it'll pretend like you're redlinining and not give any more power.
And if you shift too soon, it'll bog down. It'll pretend we're playing makebelieve out. They're on the real road uh with our, you know, poker cards and our bicycle spokes to make it sound like a big mean machine. I don't know what they're doing.
>> I don't know what they're doing. Okay.
But, um, Porsche is a brand. It's a great brand. It is one of the best brands out there. People want to own a Porsche. And so, what do you think is going to happen to that brand? Do you think they'll survive? I mean, I think they will. I think that this this is one example. It doesn't matter if they stay with gas cars, people will still buy them. Yeah, absolutely. They're the fun top end of what Volkswagen owns. And if for some reason they had a prolonged period of financial downturn, again, Volkswagen's too big to fail, Porsche is within the Volkswagen group. Um, they'll be fine. And at some point it'll turn around and they'll be wildly profitable.
Again, I have absolute confidence they'll be fine. Although the only thing would be I think that the brand is a sports car >> and it's something that people want to be seen in and it's gorgeous design but if it's if you know I think we're almost here where people realize now that these gas cars are not fast compared to electric vehicle cars you know yes like how many how many times have you you're gonna need to see an EV a Model 3 a cheap car burn past a Porsche Uh, and and this once somebody even gets in and in the EV and feels the, you know, the instant torque and the movement and the everything about it, it just you then start looking at these cars differently.
You go, "Yeah, they're not as cool as I thought they were."
>> When we were out at the speedway in uh Clearwater, Florida in I guess that would have been about December, November, December, uh there was on the drag strip, we were allowing gas cars to come out and show their show us what they got. guy came out in his Cadillac Escalade that he had modified to make it even faster. And I said, "Oh no, does he know what he's doing?" And the guy very proud of himself, "I'm gonna crush this.
You guys don't know how fast my Cadillac is." And he lined up against a and I said, "Oh, please tell me it's not a Cyber Beast." No, it's not a Cyber Beast. It's an all-wheel drive. And of course, the all-wheel drive Cybert truck took him to school. It was embarrassing.
And meanwhile, this poor aszthmatic screaming goat of a car uh is doing its best, but there's only so much you can do in a steampunk era. Didn't work. It was embarrassing.
>> That noise that you were talking about, it's it's interesting because it it is kind of cool, right? When you we grew up with this, when you hear the engine noise and it's like, "Oh my god, that is powerful." Because that shows you power and then it then it takes off and it goes crazy. Now it's it's turning into, you know, we laugh at it. Like my wife will laugh at this go. It's like all that power. It's like a it's like a a cat, a little tiny kitten screaming with a lion's roar and yet you see that it's actually a kitten >> and you just go, "That's adorable.
>> It's adorable."
>> I was at sales center event in F. Uh Teresa was there. It was an owner's club thing and it's right next to the freeway and we hear some guy out there running his little four cylinder car as fast as noisy as it'll go. And I turned and said, "It's adorable, isn't it?" Look at him go. Hey, if I can hear your car, it ain't fast.
>> It ain't fast. All right, so Brian, here we go. We've We're watching this in slow motion, right? I mean, I don't know how many stories we've had to report on this automaker, that automaker cutting, losing, uh, stopping factories, pulling back on EVs, pulling back on batteries.
Um, it's it's like we're we're getting into the u Oh gosh, I wish I forgot that I was going to show a slide that showed you the all the the list of all the top selling EVs.
And it's pretty sad for everybody. In Q1, you will see like thousands, you know, >> right?
>> Yeah. You know what I'm talking about?
Yeah.
>> You can find it.
>> Yeah. Keep talking while I I see if I can find it. But, um, >> so the thing about this slide is that it goes Model Y at the top and the Model Y line had to be truncated because it's so long that the rest of the chart would look like no cars at all. If it's the one I'm thinking of that's in the US, there are Yeah, there's too many. Uh, too many companies are swearing that they're serious this time and I will wait until they prove it. I am done listening to the promises of a bunch of models and uh a bunch of amazing engineering especially when when the engineering does come out. It's not great. I'm thinking of the Jeep Wagon Ear S that I drove over the weekend.
1000 plus horsepower. None of it to the ground. It was shockingly uh poor traction control. H when I stomped on it, it it didn't go all that fast. Jack told me, "You gota you got to put it in sport mode, but be advised in sport mode, you don't have traction control."
Like, well, that's insane. So, it was just terrible designing.
>> F did find it. Thank you for giving me the time there. Thank you from Jan of EV EV Wire and the EV universe data from KBB Kelly Blue Book. Here are all the EV models in the US ranked by how many were sold in Q1. This is US EVs.
Okay, so if you look at this list, >> obviously it's great. I mean, you've got uh Tesla sold 78,000 >> Model Y's.
>> They sold 31,000 Model 3s. So Tesla sold 100,000 EVs in Q1. Okay. Uh actually I don't see Oh, there it's a Cybert truck.
3,519. Very tiny. This is tiny. Then you got the Model S.
Where's the Model S?
>> So I'm going to tell you this is kind of funny because you just rounded and said they sold 100,000, but it's not 100.
It's almost 110. And that's funny to me because while you're correct, right, >> that rounding error is larger than the BZ.
>> Right. Okay. Sorry, you're right. That's a very good point.
>> That's how far out in the lead it is.
>> That's my point. That was my point. The next big one is Toyota BZ, which is great. Toyota's got a brand name and they they they've, you know, they they've got a car that's selling 10,000.
That's a decent number. That's okay, right? 10,000. Let's say, you know, by the end of the year they sell 50,000, whatever. It's good. But I'm just so sad to see all the others here.
>> Even the cattle, the Cybert truck at 3,500, that is too small. And then now we're talking thousands. All these guys under here. So only what is it? Only you know 21 sold over a thousand cars in Q1.
The rest >> Yeah.
>> 20 plus 25 others sold less than a thousand cars. They're tiny.
>> This is not nothing. Like my wife saw this this commercial on the Mercedes EQE. Fantastic commercial. Great. And the EQS, right? She saw this commercial and she was going great cars. I go, "Yeah, they're probably good cars, but unfortunately they only sold 200 cars in the >> So, if you look at number 55, there's that Jeep Wagon Ear S. It's about an $80,000 car. And if you want one for half price, they've got it at uh Plat Auto with, I'm not joking, a couple thousand miles on it." That's how I I can't speak to the motivation of the seller. And at 21, the Cadillac Fishtick. I uh went and drove that as well. Those are both 6,000 pound rigs that have 100 plus kilowatt hour packs and charge at I I want to say 150 kilowatts is the max. So, you're going to you're going to be there a minute while you juice it up. These guys, it just doesn't feel like they're trying.
>> Yeah. It's sad because I think uh the number I always say was you need to be selling at least 200,000 cars a year >> in order for you to take advantage of um you know scale, price, supplier, all that >> and uh and and then this just us. So if you then go and go global then okay maybe >> and if you look at >> yeah there are great names on here. The uh Kia EV9 at 2700 that's that's disappointing. Uh, so at number 15, it's just disappointing. The Ionic 5 at 10,000, I mean, I guess that's okay, but it's just it's not going great.
>> Yeah. I mean, Rivian, everybody sees that. They know that they're, you know, pure EV play. They're trying to make it and they only sold 5,000. So, it's like, >> you know, it's like they're they're good, but they need to survive. And you can't be surviving just selling 5,000 a quarter, >> right? And these are US only numbers, but for Rivian, US only is kind of their their global number two >> because they really don't sell outside.
>> When when I saw this and I thought, whoa, Toyota is right at the top there.
Okay, they're doing okay.
>> But I just think it's because it's the brand, right? The the brand Toyota. And people just say, hey, I'm going to, you know, I trust the Toyota. And know maybe also because of their um history with hybrids.
>> Yes. Um I have not driven the BZ. The Sultterra I was going to drive but uh it was not available on over the weekend.
They are genuinely uh uninspired cars.
They're they have like 200 horsepower in a world of you know 500 to,000 horsepower vehicles. The charging is not very fast. The styling is questionable to be polite. Um I don't know outside of brand loyalty. I think these would be the biggest flop on the list.
>> And then Hyundai's are actually good cars. I've >> Hyundai's are good cars. By the way, the Cadillac Vistic has the hugest front end I've ever seen and no frunk.
>> I don't know. Never seen that.
>> Cadillac Vistic.
>> You're missing nothing.
>> And then what do you think about Cybertruck, though? That's a failure.
>> Yep. I I would really have expected it to be selling vastly more. I think if this $59,000 variant is profitable, they should bring it back and just start selling those because the production line is is running so low compared to capacity, it is very difficult for them to make money.
>> Now, I've heard that the that that new variant, the price point, this is probably uh the Q1. So, the new price point that's going to start showing up and I think that number is going to go up now because I hear I'm hearing that the production is going out. Like Joe Techmar is watching it. It looks like it's it's watching his footage. I'm watching his coverage. What I'm waiting to see is the steel wheels show up from the drone. You can't tell from the knees up if that's a bargain cybert truck or the expensive one. But looking at the wheels is the giveaway. And I have yet to see the steel wheels. So, I'm not sure when they will begin production. They're supposed to be begin deliveries in June. So, we've still got weeks for that. And uh it does it what we what I'd really like to know is how many of them they sold because I suspect the number is pretty good.
>> I think it's going to be good. It's price point has always been the whole point about uh I think vehicles. All right. So, what's your guess? Can you predict a little bit of the future?
What's going to happen to these legacy automakers?
>> Oh.
So, Stalantis is no longer in the running for US big too big to fail status.
That's unfortunate. Um, Kia and Hyundai will do fine. They're being very aggressive with their EV moves internationally and in the US. Um, when it comes to US automakers, boy, I just don't I just don't know what you're doing. The they're they're retreating to their shores. Uh so if you're asking who is likely to fail first among legacy car companies, you might see some subbrands disappear, contract out of existence the way, you know, Saturn did or what was the other one? Oldsmobile, is that gone?
Pontiac maybe. You know, brands within brands that could that could shrink out of existence. But I think uh yeah, Nissan, Honda, but really uh I mean Mitsubishi, I don't know. They've got other divisions that could save them. Uh but in they may just exit the automotive space. So yeah, and in the US, we're just kind of out of car companies if the Saudi Sovereign Fund decides to treat Lucid the way they did the live golf tournament tour thing. They pulled funding for that golf uh endeavor and now it's gone. It's just gone because their funding was too significant. If they stop funding Lucid, it's gone. Just it's just done day one. Oh, Apple should buy them. They will not. It's not the $2 billion price tag that gets you. Like any good luxury car, it's the maintenance. It's the burning a billion a day kind of thing that gets you. It's not a billion a day, but it'll sure feel like it. If Apple wanted to lose billions and billions, endless billions on a car, they would have just continued their own internal project. Um, so, and of course, while Lucid's IP surely has value, it doesn't have that much value.
It's it's it's a bad deal. So, I think any of the startups that are not yet profitable are in serious danger. Rivian and Lucid and among Legacy, I would say Nissan is the one that I'm most concerned about. Here here's my take on this is that I think that we've been watching slow slow I would let's say let's not call it slow death but slow painful injury to these like they're not healthy okay none of these automakers are healthy on that entire list none of them are healthy um and it's what's happening though I think with full self-driving coming out we're watching robo taxis rolled out all different kind of car companies not vendors not just Tesla and Then but Tesla specifically with full self-driving becoming a thing I think that that will uh be the this is the maybe in a couple years from now next year people will realize that they want to have self-driving cars. So, the only company in this entire list, >> okay, of 69 I I didn't I should have done this earlier to show people the full list of 69. Look, they sold too many gooers. Too >> Let's not laugh.
Um, but you know this 60 this entire list of of cars here.
There's only these two here. Any Tesla here? These five Teslas. Three.
Whatever. Three. I don't see a Model.
Where's the Model S? I think they're down below. That's why I didn't see them.
>> Yeah, it's there somewhere.
>> Yeah, there's a Model X right here.
Yeah. Yeah. So, it' be above >> Yeah. Model X and Model S. Where? No, it's a Model S is less. There's down below here it is >> right here. 30.
>> Yep.
>> There's a thousand. So, you can see the numbers here.
>> Only those Teslas can drive themselves.
>> None of the other cars here can do this.
Well, they're just cars. They're just everything else. When I'm at when I'm reviewing other cars, I say if you don't care about FSD, if you're looking for just a car, this one is just a car. You can treat a Tesla like just a car the same way you can manually shift in an automatic transmission. Uh don't. It's pointless. Uh but uh yeah, but if you have a car that is a stick, you can't drive it as an automatic. That it doesn't go the other direction. So if you are thinking about buying a car and you're not convinced that uh FSD is right for you, I would say pause. You need to take a break. You need to go and do an overnight test drive and find out for sure because your mind may be about to change. And I don't want to see you buy something and be committed for five years when you're gonna hate it.
>> Yeah. I can see the Tesla cars doubling the next three to five years and then you watch the others go away.
>> Yeah.
>> Because it's no longer competing against just EVs or just cars.
>> But they're going to partner with Nvidia. Haven't you heard?
>> Yes, >> we've covered that. The Nvidia tools are great tools, but they're just tools.
They are not a system. And uh too many people don't understand that and they're ready to pounce and say, "Aha, Nvidia is now the leader." They're not. That demo was uninspired.
>> Y Thank you so much, Ryan. Check out the future. Go to Futurasa. Thanks, everybody. I've created a website that is the most comprehensive resource for the Tesla investor. Please check it out.
Simply go to my website at herbalm.com.
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