They are MISSING IT, the BOTTOM FOR BITCOIN Using XRP and Total Market Cap of Crypto

[00:00:02][music] Hey, what's going on everybody? This is the Blockchain Backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.

[00:00:22]Today we'll be taking a look at the Bitcoin price chart along with the total market cap of the cryptocurrency market and the XRP price chart. As in this video I'm going to present the case on why the crowd is missing that this is the bottom of Bitcoin with the majority of them believing that we still have to go lower and how the crowd made this exact same mistake back in 2022. Now, we've used a lot of different data points to try to show how this is typically where the crowd sentiment is going to start believing that we're going to go find lower prices than where we already are once we hit these onchain figures of exceeding 10.5 million coins getting into a loss. Uh, out of every bottom that I've been through, I've been through all the ones that we see in here in 2018, 2020, 2022. I've been through all of them at every single point in time. The consensus was we were going to go lower from where we were when we found our bottom. We've spent a lot of time talking about this data over in here. We've hit those levels without question for total coins and a loss. And I think for most people, they can understand that and wrap their head around that. And I think for most people, they can understand, right, this has been the same style and same depths of a bare market for the entire cryptocurrency market of exactly what we saw back in 2022. Even the timing of this double bottom happening like with FTX, I think people can understand, right? When we look at oversold indicators, right? These are the bottoms of every bare market in here and how they've built themselves out. But the one thing you can't take away from people is just seeing gaps, right?

[00:01:49]There's downside and being able to say, "Man, why why would we stop right there when there's just, you know, there's nothing but downside, right? We kind of forget there's nothing but up stuff up in here." But looking at this structurally, trying to make sense out of it to say how why would that be a bottom right in here? And so I've tried to think of creative ways to try to explain this on my YouTube channel and I do spend time thinking about my audience and how do I effectively communicate to the people that are watching. I've had this YouTube channel for almost 7 years at this point. We've talked about XRP a lot throughout those years. And I think if I use the XRP price chart and our past bare market to kind of explain this, it might make a little bit more sense if you're just having a hard time visually seeing it rather than having to be like, "Okay, yeah, the magic of the relative strength index, the magic of the MACD, or the magic of onchain losses is going to end up being the thing, right?" I figured maybe we can explain it from this standpoint to say where would we be within any of this of a completed bare market and can we draw those parallels to where we are today.

[00:02:57]So I think we've done a good enough job showing things with onchain data. We've shown here with percentage of supply and a profit. We've dipped down to the FTX levels over here back at the end of June. Right? This is where our low happens for the market down in here after FTX collapses. And it takes this moment back in here. you know, this $5 billion liquidation for us to get into these losses right in here. But I think it's important to just notice that on the data for what we're about to talk about here, and then I'm going to come back to it in a second, but say, look, like this is where FTX collapsed. This is where a big liquidation hits the market, and this is how we reach percentage supply and a profit hitting these levels of, you know, about 45% and then we get here about 45% right in here. And so for XRP people, we're going to look through this. And since I know a lot of you lived through this, you can maybe reflect on it and think what was going on in your head at that particular time. And then we're going to draw those parallels to today's price action and show you where we are at. And I think the best way to do that is simply just put these charts right next to each other. And I think if you put them next to each other, you may think, "Wow, they don't really look anything the same."

[00:03:59]But they actually look nearly identical to me. And especially when I reflect back on what was happening in the market at particular times, it definitely says to me, "This is literally identical."

[00:04:08]Now, I want to say this. I'm not going to address all this stuff in here and whether or not this has to take a long time. That's not the point of what this video is. The point is to address I think a lot of people have a misconception of where we are within this market cycle right now. And I'm going to show you that here. Now, we have to reflect back to September and October of last year. Right at that point, I'm kind of screaming from the rooftops. We did bare week. It's like, hey, look, I it feels like we're about to go into a bare market. A lot of the data is pointing to it. I'm selling 50% of my portfolio. I don't like it. You know, we ran bare week from like September 27th to October 4th and then the October 10th liquidation happened 6 days later. Now, the point of that is not to be a braggard, but it's to say, hey, look, at that time, I was seeing things at that point that made me feel like we were in this part of the market when we were right here. Now, if you recall back in 2021, we did something very similar where Bitcoin set this new all-time high, but we weren't starting a bull market. we were really just in a bear and it was that, you know, we're pretty much doing these same things between the two where we're setting a new high on a bearish divergence, right?

[00:05:14]We talked all about this at that time that we were getting weaker and weaker as we were going into these new highs and that when we were in here, we spent a lot of time saying, "Yeah, I I I think we are actually just really rolling over in here and that the euphoria of our market happened back in here right after Trump won the presidential election and then the entire two months leading up to his inauguration. That's where we go ham, right? November 4th and then all the way over in here until January when he gets inaugurated and then Trump coin launches, right? That's where all of our yolo happens here in the market for these two months. But that was exactly how it happened back in 2021. All of our excitement in the market happened in here once Tesla announced that they had put Bitcoin on the balance sheet back in February of 2021. Right? Market rips and then the altcoins rip with it. And so the point of saying this right in here is saying, "Hey, look, you know, this moment right in here felt a lot like this moment back here for XRP." when we're using this type of analogy is that we can look at what happened with Bitcoin here. That was that moment. That was that top for Bitcoin where we create the bearish divergence in here and that we then go roll over. And so what was becoming apparent in this moment was that we were reliving what happened back in 2021 where all of our euphoria came in these first rallies and then we created a bearish divergence in more so of like a weaker rally in altcoins and retracements. And we could see that in the data at the time that really the euphoria of this market. Let me clean this up. It all happens here just like with what we saw back in here. how this euphoria happens on the rally with Elon Musk and you know in February, March and April of 2021. Our euphoric rally is happening here and we can see that with things like you know again trying to resonate with people who watch this show, right? XRP people, a lot of XRP people own a lot of the same different assets. A lot of them own HAR, right?

[00:07:06]Where does H bar peak out at? In the euphoria happening back here, how about Stellar Lumens? A lot of people own Stellar Lumens, right? Where is the Euphoria rally? it's back over in here.

[00:07:16]And so in our bearish divergence rally that happens for Bitcoin, right, we can see the euphoria happens on the first wave. And so it's hard to visually see that or think about that when you look at Bitcoin through this lens. But if you imagined, right, and we can add more to this. You can add Cardano. It happens right there on that rally or CRV or whatever you guys are into. If you imagined that this rally went higher like this because this is our euphoria wave, then all of this suddenly makes more sense when you look at it through this lens and understand what happened here that this is our euphoria wave that happens back in here, right? I just showed you those altcoins just like back in 2021. This is our euphoria wave, right? We come back to hit the floor, waddle for a while, and then go into capitulation. Anybody remember May and June of 2022? Of course you do. That's where things just absolutely hit the fan and we break through support and we capitulate for XRP. Right? This is where we officially go oversold after maintaining higher relative strength for the entire time leading up to that. We finally go oversold right here after we finally capitulate through the floor.

[00:08:21]But that's the same story of what happens here for Bitcoin. Imagine the rally, the excitement, Trump, everything. XRP shooting from 50 cents to $3. This is our euphoria wave, right?

[00:08:31]maintains on top of the moving averages and then we capitulate and what do we do? We go oversold on the weekly time frame for the first time just like we did over here. Then we stay at the floor for a while after the market has already capitulated, sentiment is deteriorated.

[00:08:46]We stay at the floor where sentiment is deteriorated and we've already capitulated and what ends up happening here? We end up going back to back test that broken support where we had just fallen from, right? And so what have we now just done here for Bitcoin is gone back to back test the broken support.

[00:09:02]This is our capitulation. This is our capitulation. And now we've gone back to back test the broken capitulation support floor and it's resistance because what do we see happen here and what do we see happen here? Price rejects brutally. But what is so similar about both of these moments in time?

[00:09:18]Well, people who are here will definitely remember this is FTX. This is the FTX crash. This is what is able to create these price levels to happen right in here and these types of losses and percentage of coins being in profit to hit 45% is that we have the FTX crash right here which is the rejection off of the support floor right back down to the lows. And if you recall just several weeks ago how many people were screaming this is worse than FTX right there at the end of June a $5 billion liquidation. The thing we were looking for there's all the receipts out there for it and newsletters and videos. But what do we get? the rejection off of the capitulation support floor to hit the onchain losses. And so what people aren't visually seeing right now is that this moment in time resembles this moment in time because everybody's looking for a textbook exactly repeating. Everything's got to look exactly identical when really it's just, you know, history rhymes. It can look awfully similar but typically not precisely exact. But we can see these things and understand them conceptually that this is our euphoria wave. This is our weaker rally, right? This is where all the altcoins go crazy. Bitcoin sets a new high here. Bitcoin sets a new high here. But all you know, a lot of altcoins don't. We come down to the 100week moving average right in here.

[00:10:28]Which of course at this time, this is the same thing Bitcoin is doing right here in January of 2022. And then finally, what is this break that happens right here? We can throw that on, right?

[00:10:37]January. Then here in April, we finally go and break it, right? January gets down to the 100week moving average. Then over here in April and May, we finally break it, right? Here's January, 100week moving average. And then May and April, what do we do? We break it. That's what we do here. This is the break of the 100week moving average just like we did back in here. So what I don't think people see is that one, yes, this has been a bare market. The argument I was trying to make for a long time is that we are not in, you know, month number 10 or whatever of a bare market. Again reiterating our bare market started in January of 2025. It is now July of 2026.

[00:11:11]We are 18 months into a bare market. We are much further into this thing than people think we are. So when I see things like this, I know it's just fear driven. Lots of people sitting in pain and a loss. Lots of coins in a loss just like we did after the FTX collapse. And we have every technical and onchain and structural thing to say that should have felt like FDX to people. But what did people also think after FTX collapsed?

[00:11:38]12K. We're going to 12K, right? The crowd 100% did not think the low was in after FTI. But what we can see is we have structurally, technically, and onchain done everything as if FTX collapsed already. But what I don't think happened in this last bull run was that anyone accepted the idea that that was the top of the bull market in April of 2021. So when we finally got here in 2025, nobody still understood it. And we spent so much time talking about it and explaining it that way to say this was the actual real top of the market. And so when we got here, people didn't get it. Whether that was cognitive dissonance of of not willingness to accept it or just refusal to acknowledge anything that had happened in 2021.

[00:12:25]Well, what we saw in 2024 and 2025 was the literal identical exact same thing.

[00:12:29]And so when we're screaming from the rooftops of here, it's from mistakes of past market cycles, right? Like even in here, I thought this was the top of Bitcoin, but I thought we'd see a rotation into the altcoins at that point when we did the exact same thing in here. Rather than making that same mistake, scream from the rooftops. But what we learned during all of this was how all of this behaved. And in here, finding the bottom, find the recovery, we learned how this market top behaved.

[00:12:54]And then when we got here and we repeated it, we understood this was the top. This was the peak of the market when it comes to onchain behavior, strength behavior, right? We we are getting weaker and weaker by the moment.

[00:13:05]This was the peak. And so when you get here, everybody is still lost. Everybody is still like a year behind on their analysis of the market on where we are and not acknowledging this was our FTX moment. We just back tested the broken down support. We have a massive liquidation that hits the market and then we go hit all the onchain figures and total supply and a profit hitting FTX levels. So, you know, I think for those who just want to like visually see it on the charts, I think a lot of people who watch my channel, have watched a lot of my XRP content throughout the years, and hopefully creating this analogy by utilizing an asset that you're familiar with and maybe a moment in time you can recall on a chart that acted like that to understand where we are. And then to have the same market conditions in here where this is the capitulation back in here. This is the back test. This is the liquidation. And then there's still the bullish divergence, right? And so that you can see over here on these things, they're all crossing and and how all this behavior happens in here, you know, when the FTX collapse happens and these things happen. But we're well off the low already in here. So hopefully this resonates. Hopefully this makes sense to see that, right? That you can see that divergence there that goes from here to here as that back test occurs and that that divergence happens in here between these as that back test occurs. And so hopefully that all connects with you right there. That these data points all happening in here all align to make sense right in here. That you would have your FTX style collapse happen right there. And that these technicals all make sense at the same time. And that these structural behaviors all make sense too. and that your brain just may not see it or think about it that way until you start adding all the altcoins to reflect that the excitement wave was back here like what we saw when Bitcoin did the same thing in 2021. And that your throwback right here would be your throwback here, your FTX collapse, your liquidation, and your onchain losses.

[00:15:04]and that the crowd is in the same spot they were right after FTX collapsed in 2022 at the exact same spot that they were at that time for the technicals.

[00:15:13]So, I hope that helped. I I tried to think of a creative way to like incorporate in a lot of coins that maybe you guys are familiar with to like think you've probably stared at all of these different charts a million different times and if we incorporate that in at the exact same time, maybe it would click. So, hopefully it does. Um, as you could see, I don't try to present anything from like a guru perspective. I try to like incorporate all the data at the exact same time. We're not just overlaying fractals and things like that. We're really trying to draw like market conditions. What was happening in the market at the time? When was the euphoria? What was happening with onchain? What was happening with technicals? Right? All these things combined. We call this confluence when we can match up a lot of different things all at the exact same time. And that's obviously what we have happening right here. And at the same time, the crowd looking for lower, right? So, I hope that you enjoyed this. I hope that it resonated with you. It's very rare we get a Saturday morning video out, but I have a lot going on in my personal life right now that I'm having to attend to.

[00:16:07]Uh, I hope that this makes up for there not being a Thursday and Friday video, and I hope this gives you something to do throughout the weekend, and I hopefully makes you have a better weekend and like a better perspective of things. So, all right, I'll quit rambling. Um, earlier this week, I did put out another newsletter saying, "Everyone's watching the narrative, but the data isn't. The technicals, onchain, macro, and top network activity coins tell a different story." So, of course, we go through a lot of different data going on. the market's still flashing that the bottom is happening right in here. And then at the exact same time saying, "Hey, look, you know, macros lined up." And if we're going to look at different coins like we have in the past where we're looking at percentage draw downs, we're looking at developer activity. We go ahead and take a look at what chains are actively being used right now. We have a lot of speculation of secrets upon secrets. What are people using? This is the secret one used by the shadow government and all that stuff. But we do have data out there to look and see what networks are actually being used. And so we go through a lot of that in here at the same time. It includes a 41minute audio voiceover as well. So after I finish writing these, I do read them and also talk about the charts within these. You can check this out over here at blockchainbacker.substack.com.

[00:17:08]There's a link within the description of this video to the newsletter at blockchainbacker.substack.com or you can just go directly within your browser. Otherwise, I want to thank you so much for watching. If you could please like this video and give it a thumbs up. If you're new to the channel, please subscribe and hit the notification bell so you can be notified when I create new content and when I go live. As always, this is not investment advice and I am not a financial adviser.

[00:17:32]But if you ever need a pickme up or a little bit of reassurance, just remember that the blockchain backers got your back. Have a good one.

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