Carney Promised a Deal With Trump a Year Ago. Mexico Already Got One — Canada Still Has Nothing

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]It was a year ago, minus a day, that Mark Carney called a snap election with one promise. Give me a mandate to deal with Trump. 90 days, he said. 90 days and Canada would have a new trade deal.

[00:00:13]That was May 30th, 2025. Today is June 1st, 2026.

[00:00:19]Mexico signed a bilateral deal with Washington 3 weeks ago. Canada still has nothing and the clock is ticking. July 1st, 29 days from now. That's the deadline to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement for another 16 years. If Canada doesn't get a deal by then, the whole thing collapses into rolling negotiations with no guarantee of success. Here's what matters. Carney promised he could handle Trump. Mexico proved it's possible. So, why is Canada still on the outside?

[00:00:54]Let's break this down. I'm Victoria Stone. On Thursday, Mark Carney stood before the Economic Club of New York and called for a new partnership with the United States. Not a renewed trade agreement. A new partnership. According to the Associated Press, he framed it as a reimagining of the relationship between the two countries. He talked about shared values, integrated supply chains, and mutual prosperity.

[00:01:20]What he didn't mention was the deadline.

[00:01:23]29 days out and the Canadian Prime Minister was pitching a vision instead of negotiating details.

[00:01:31]According to Politico, officials in Washington found the speech aspirational but vague.

[00:01:37]One unnamed White House trade adviser told reporters, "We don't do visions. We do terms."

[00:01:45]Meanwhile, Trump was in the Oval Office talking about Iran. Reuters reported Monday that the president said Tehran really wants to make a deal with the US.

[00:01:55]He called it a good one for Washington.

[00:01:58]He said it would be done soon.

[00:02:00]When asked about Canada, Trump shrugged.

[00:02:03]"Carney's a nice guy," he said. "We'll see what happens." That's not the language of a partner. That's the language of someone who's moved on. Let me put this in perspective. On May 10th, Mexico and the United States signed a bilateral agreement that effectively carves Mexico out of USMCA and into its own framework. The deal includes new provisions on automotive manufacturing, stricter labor enforcement, and a commitment to cap Chinese imports at 15% of total trade volume.

[00:02:34]According to CBS News, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum called it a new era of partnership with our northern neighbor.

[00:02:43]Trump called it proof that deals get done when leaders stop talking and start negotiating. The White House released a statement praising Mexico for putting results over rhetoric. The implication was clear. Canada was still stuck in rhetoric. Now, think about the timing.

[00:03:00]Mexico began serious negotiations in January, 3 months after Carney took office. By March, they had a draft framework. By April, they were ironing out final language. By May, they had signatures. That's 4 months from start to finish. Canada has had 14 months since the election. Still nothing. And here's where it gets complicated. Canada didn't just fail to close a deal, it failed to start one. According to Politico, substantive talks between Ottawa and Washington didn't begin until March of this year. That's 10 months after Carney promised results in 90 days. 10 months of speeches, public statements, and grand ambitions, but no negotiating team at the table. When Trump took office in January 2025, one of his first moves was slapping tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum.

[00:03:54]25% on steel, 10% on aluminum. He called it leverage. Carney called it unacceptable and vowed to get them rolled back within 3 months of taking power. That was April 29th, 2025.

[00:04:10]According to Al Jazeera, Carney said in his first major address as Prime Minister, "We will not accept punitive tariffs on industries that employ hundreds of thousands of Canadians." He promised relief by August, then by October, then by the end of the year. It's now June 2026. According to Global News, not a single tariff line item has been reduced or eliminated. Not one.

[00:04:37]Canadian steel exports to the United States dropped by 38% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the same period in 2024.

[00:04:48]Aluminum exports fell by 29%.

[00:04:51]That's according to Statistics Canada data released last week. The economic impact is showing up in the numbers.

[00:04:58]Canada entered a technical recession this quarter. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. National unemployment hit 7.2% in April, the highest since 2021.

[00:05:11]Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre is calling for an emergency parliamentary debate, accusing Carney of policy failures that are destroying Canadian jobs and livelihoods. Let me take you back to the campaign.

[00:05:25]May 30th, 2025.

[00:05:28]Carney is in Toronto, speaking to a packed room of Liberal Party supporters.

[00:05:33]He's riding high in the polls.

[00:05:35]Trudeau resigned 3 months earlier amid scandals and tanking approval ratings.

[00:05:41]Carney, the former Bank of Canada governor and Bank of England governor, is the fresh face, the steady hand, the guy who can handle Trump. He makes the promise on stage that night.

[00:05:53]"Give me 90 days," he says.

[00:05:55]"90 days and we will have a framework for a new trade relationship with the United States, one that protects Canadian jobs and Canadian sovereignty."

[00:06:05]The crowd erupts. The line becomes the centerpiece of his campaign. He wins the election on June 23rd with a strong mandate. Liberals take 174 seats, enough for a solid majority. The message from voters is clear. Fix the Trump problem.

[00:06:21]According to the Globe and Mail, post-election polling showed trade with the US was the number one issue for 68% of Canadians. They wanted results. 90 days from June 23rd is September 21st.

[00:06:36]That day came and went with no announcement, no framework, no progress.

[00:06:41]Carney's office released a statement saying negotiations were ongoing and productive. When pressed by reporters, a spokesperson said, "These things take time. The Prime Minister remains committed to getting the best deal for Canadians." But here's the problem.

[00:06:56]Trump doesn't do ongoing. He does closed or dead. In his speech Thursday, Carney laid out what he's been working on the past year. It's not a trade deal. It's a proposal for a Canada-EU free trade expansion that would create what he calls a transatlantic economic zone.

[00:07:15]The idea is to integrate more deeply with Europe as a hedge against US unpredictability.

[00:07:21]According to Politico, the proposal includes provisions for regulatory alignment with Brussels, expanded market access for Canadian goods in the European Union, and a commitment to multilateral trade frameworks through the World Trade Organization.

[00:07:36]It's ambitious. It's detailed, and it completely sidesteps Trump.

[00:07:41]The problem is the United States wouldn't benefit at all. In fact, the arrangement could pull Canadian trade away from American markets and toward European ones.

[00:07:53]That's not the kind of thing that wins you points with a president who measures relationships by trade surpluses. When reporters asked Trump about Carney's transatlantic proposal, he called it not helpful.

[00:08:05]A White House official told Politico it could further antagonize the president who already wasn't enthusiastic about Carney's vision when it was just talk.

[00:08:15]Now that it's an active policy push, the relationship has chilled even more and the clock keeps ticking, July 1st. If Canada doesn't signal it's ready to renew USMCA by then, the agreement enters a review period that could drag on for years. Mexico is already out of that uncertainty. They have their bilateral deal. Canada is alone at the table or not at the table, depending on how you look at it. So, what's really happening here? Carney made a promise he couldn't keep, not because he didn't try, but because he misread the situation entirely. He assumed Trump would operate like a traditional president, sit down, negotiate, find common ground, but Trump doesn't negotiate with countries that don't offer him something he wants immediately. Mexico offered border security and energy cooperation. That's tangible. That's measurable. That's something Trump can sell to his base.

[00:09:17]Canada offered to diversify away from the United States toward Europe. That's not a deal. That's a divorce filing. And here's where the math gets brutal.

[00:09:27]According to Statistics Canada, 75% of Canadian exports go to the United States. That's over $400 billion dollars year. The European Union takes 8%. Even if Carney's transatlantic plan works perfectly and doubles Canadian exports to Europe, it still wouldn't replace what gets lost if USMCA collapses, not even close. The EU market is fragmented, protected by its own trade barriers, and already has established suppliers for most of what Canada produces: lumber, energy, automotive parts. Those industries are built around US demand, not European demand.

[00:10:07]But here's the question nobody is asking.

[00:10:10]What happens if Canada enters July 1st without a deal and the US economy is booming?

[00:10:15]Right now, unemployment in the United States is at 4.1%.

[00:10:20]Growth is steady. Inflation is manageable. If Trump can point to Mexico as proof that bilateral deals work better than multilateral ones, and if Canada is the only holdout still clinging to the old framework, the political pressure shifts entirely onto Carney. He becomes the obstacle, not Trump.

[00:10:40]And that's exactly the position Carney cannot afford to be in because back home, the opposition is already sharpening the knife. Pierre Poilievre, the Conservative leader, called for an emergency parliamentary debate last week after Statistics Canada reported the country had entered a technical recession, two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Poilievre didn't mince words. According to the Globe and Mail, he said, "The prime minister promised us a deal in 90 days. It's been a year. We have nothing. Mexico has a deal. We have a recession."

[00:11:14]That's the sound of a campaign ad writing itself. Carney's government tried to push back, pointing to long-term investments in infrastructure and green energy as signs of progress.

[00:11:24]But voters don't care about long-term when their jobs are disappearing now.

[00:11:28]Canadian auto plants are already planning layoffs because they can't compete with Mexican factories that have guaranteed tariff-free access to the US market. Forestry companies are scaling back operations because uncertainty around future trade terms makes expansion too risky, too. And energy producers are watching Trump prioritize Mexican oil imports over Canadian crude.

[00:11:54]The window is closing, fast. July 1st is 30 days away. If Carney walks into that deadline without at least a framework agreement, Canada loses its leverage entirely. The review process could take years, during which investment dries up, companies relocate, and the political damage becomes irreversible. Carney knows this. His team knows this. But knowing it and fixing it are two very different things. And Trump knows it, too. He's not in a hurry. He already has his win with Mexico. If Canada comes crawling back with concessions, that's another win. If Canada doesn't, he can blame them for choosing Europe over North America and move on. Either way, he doesn't lose. I want to talk about a number, 367.

[00:12:39]That is how many days have passed since Mark Carney stood in Toronto and said, "Give me 90 days." 90 became 120, then 200, then a year. And now, 367 days later, Carney is standing in New York pitching a transatlantic partnership with Europe to an audience that includes the country he was supposed to be negotiating with. Not presenting terms, not closing a deal, pitching a vision to a president who told his own staff, "We don't do visions. We do terms."

[00:13:11]I have covered the US-Canada fracture across more than 15 videos. The tariffs, the China deal, the Alberta fracture, the energy leverage that was called the strongest card and then taken off the table, the defense pact that ended with a tweet, the State Department meetings with separatists, the housing collapse, the tourism boycott, and in every single video, the same pattern. Canada builds a position and then retreats at the moment of confrontation. Canada promises and then does not deliver. Canada reacts instead of shaping. And now the starkest version of that pattern. Mexico sat down in January, presented proposals, traded concessions, signed in May, four months.

[00:13:56]Canada has had 14 months and produced a speech at an economics club. There is a moment in every negotiation where the other side stops taking you seriously, not because of something dramatic, because of accumulated evidence that you will not do what you say, that you will announce deadlines you will not enforce, that you will make promises you cannot keep, that you are fundamentally not serious.

[00:14:22]I think that moment has arrived, not because Trump said so, because the evidence says so. 367 days, zero tariff lines reduced, zero framework agreements, one speech in New York while Mexico already has signatures. 29 days until July 1st. And the question is no longer whether Canada can get a deal. The question is whether Washington still considers Canada worth negotiating with. Because the worst outcome is not a bad deal. The worst outcome is not being offered one. Here's my question, and I want to hear from Canadians specifically. Carney promised 90 days. It has been 367.

[00:15:03]Mexico has a deal. Canada has a recession. At what point does the promise itself become the problem? At what point does the gap between what was said and what was delivered become so wide that the leader who said it can no longer credibly negotiate anything. Tell me in the comments. Because July 1st is 29 days away, and the answer to that question determines what Canada walks into that deadline with. If this video connected a year of broken promises into a pattern you had not fully seen, hit the like button. One tap. That is what carries it forward. Subscribe if you have been following the Canada series.

[00:15:44]Every chapter built toward this deadline. 29 days and a country that promised 90 and delivered 367 of nothing. See you in the next one. I'm Victoria Stone. Stay informed. Stay.