Amazon represents a more attractive investment than speculative quantum computing stocks like IonQ because it offers diversified revenue streams (retail, cloud computing, advertising, and custom chips), strong competitive moats, and the ability to reinvest profits without shareholder dilution, while still providing significant exposure to AI growth opportunities.
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Deep Dive
GOT RICH OFF NVIDIA STOCK! THIS IS EVEN BIGGERAdded:
people got rich off Nvidia. Whether you held uh VO, an S&P 500 index fund, or more likely a lot of people that bought early on that just held it because they knew it was going to happen with AI.
Now, a lot of people have been talking about the next Nvidia. That's always the question. And one thing that people constantly are pointing at is this company called NQ. This is a company that is in the supercomputing space.
Basically, if you don't know what this is, uh, I'll explain it. I'll explain why so many people think that this could be the next Nvidia. It's a $20 billion company now, down 8% today. So, maybe a good time to buy if you're bullish on this kind of thing. But it's down significantly today. People are saying it could be the next $2 trillion company, which would be 100x from here.
I'm going to explain something I think is even better than this. I think it's a better bet for almost all investors. I think it pro will provide better returns. I think it'll also be much safer, which is kind of interesting.
Usually, if it provides better returns, it's not safer, but I think it's going to do both. And I think it's going to be something that a lot more people can understand. So, I want to go through this. If you don't mind though, hit subscribe. If you want to trade some of these stocks, actually, you can trade uh stocks over on Yubit. There's a link to this underneath the video. I'll put it in the link tree. It's a third down, but you can trade stocks like Amazon, like Nvidia. You can actually use leverage as well. So, you can start trading in just a few minutes. Um, and you can actually use USDT, which is a cryptocurrency, but you can use that um to move over quickly. And you don't have to KYC, meaning you don't have to give out your personal information. You can start trading in a few minutes, but check that out down below. There's also a link to BTCC and to uh Bidfi as well. Those are all partners of the channel. These are mostly crypto exchanges, but you can trade stocks on them as well. Now, like I said, um the market is kind of red today, right? The NASDAQ's down 1%. At the time of this recording, this is the first like big red day that we've had in a while. And I won't go through all the reasons why, but it's kind of having to do with Trump and uh China and what came out there. But uh a lot of people have been looking at Nvidia stock over the last couple years. It's just done extremely well. And why is that? Well, they've had extreme revenue growth.
They've had great margins and they've been able to increase earnings per share um just massively, right? They have a great moaning they are one of the hardest companies in the world to disrupt at least at this time, right?
They've been able to just you can tell by their margins, uh really high margins, they've been able to sell to everyone that they want. Um, and there there's basically endless demand for their product. Now, the tough thing is whenever you have really high margins like Nvidia has and you have revenue that goes up 80% over the last year, which before that it was up, you know, 70% and before that it was up 70%. So, whenever you have a business like this that explodes, right, it's typically somewhat cyclical and you get lots of competition. Think about any great business. all of a sudden if someone sees that you're making a lot of money well then they might want to get into that business too which is why we have companies like you know AMD which isn't a new company but it's a company that is vying for uh the same the same clients as Nvidia and the thing is right now we have so much demand that it doesn't matter right it doesn't matter if you're AMD or Nvidia you're going to be able to sell your chips the question is can you provide the best value to your clients right can you provide chips that last longer that are more efficient, that are cheaper, and that's really what they're trying to do. And all these chips are good at different things, right? Um, some are great for training, some are great for memory, some um are like focused on one specific type of AI, right? But we know that AI is exploding. It's going to be used in our daily life more and more. So that's why all the major tech companies are spending so much money. However, we are seeing um you know we are seeing some competition among the big tech companies like even Amazon and Google have started their own chips. I think Meta might even have their own chips but um there's more and more competition right now and with that some people are a little bit nervous um over like Nvidia's moat going forward or AMD's moat going forward. Um, I'd say more Nvidia is because their revenue is just so much higher than the other companies. But that's why it's not selling at a 50 forward price to earnings ratio. It's selling at 25. So, some people are a little bit nervous.
They're looking and saying, "Okay, well, what is the next Nvidia right now?"
Nvidia's had a great run, right? From, you know, even 2022, they had 27 billion in revenue. Now, they're up to 215 billion. Like, we're talking about a 10x in revenue. even just 2023 a 10x in revenue over three years. So what is going to do this next? A lot of people are looking at NQ. Let's see if I can pull it up here. Inq, which is a quantum computing stock. I'm just going to keep it really simple because it can get very confusing for people. um what IQ actually does because it if you look it up they isolate single uribium ions and electromagnetic fields and manipulate them to act as cubits. Okay, so a lot of jargon there. So what does it actually do? Well, most computers like your phone or my computer here use bits. It's either they process things with zeros and ones every calculation, no matter how complex. It's just billions of onoff switches and they they try one thing and then back up and try another thing and then back up and try another thing. Um, however, CQITS, quantum computers use cubits and they can be a zero or one or both at the same time. So, they can um they can try lots of simultaneous uh decisions at one time. So, think about it as like going through a maze. Your computer and my phone would go through and get stuck and then back up and then go through and get stuck and then back up and then go through and get stuck and then like go all the way back and then try a different way. Supercomputers can just go or quantum computers can just go through all of them at the same time, right? So, it's not procedural. It's all at the same time, which it's just really efficient from a time perspective. It can crack things very quickly. Um, this is one of the things that actually makes some crypto uh investors very nervous is if if supercomputers really get to the point where people think they could get um they they will be extremely extremely powerful and could even break um cryptography or or break um people's private seed phrases. So that's what that's kind of the bare point on that.
But you look at this company and you're like, well, if they are as important as people say, right? If if this could be the key to everything, the key to figuring out um cancer research, to solving all issues, and this is a $20 billion company, well, that makes sense.
It could be worth trillions of dollars.
It could be the most valuable company in the world in the next 10 years if if they can really crack the code. So, what a $10 trillion, 20 trillion company. So, that gets people thinking, okay, this could be a 500x, a,000x.
But there are a couple things I'd push back on, right? So, this is a long bet.
Um, the reason for that, yes, their revenue has increased drastically. You can see like, oh, they went from $8 million in revenue all the way up to 64 million very quickly, right? That that's a huge increase. In one year, their revenue went up 700%.
But keep in mind, this is an unprofitable company. And they're still selling at a 100 price to sales ratio.
So, imagine you have a company that cuts grass and you do uh $100,000 a year in revenue. You're not making $100,000 a year, but you're, you know, your revenue is $100,000. That would be like that would be like valuing that company at $10 million. Probably pretty unrealistic because you probably only make 30 $4 $50,000 in profit. I don't think that's worth $10 million. But this company is even worse because they just flipped profitable. They were actually unprofitable for the longest time. And even free cash flow-wise, they're very unprofitable. So, um, this company is fairly expensive. They have to constantly raise cash because they're reinvesting in themselves so much and actually losing a lot of money at this point. So, this is not a company that's anywhere close to profitability. how they make money right now is actually through um selling like the these supercomputing um computers uh and technology to research labs and they make money a few other ways too but um yeah they're very unprofitable right now and even claude u the highest level of claude that I have which is $200 a month was doing deep research on IQ and thinks it will still be 5 to 15 years before supercomputers are even a The problem isn't the timeline necessarily because if they continue to get progressively better, people will continue to, you know, buy the stock and they'll be able to raise cash, which is what they did recently. They diluted shareholders by 100% basically uh over just a couple quarters. So, if you owned 1% of the company, all of a sudden you own half a percent. They needed to do that to raise cash. So, they got um you know, they're very unprofitable right now. They are a long shot bet. But the thing is they also have a lot of competition. The major tech companies are some of the companies that are trying to kind of compete with with Q like Google has their own quantum computing unit. Um AWS deals in quantum computing and actually they're a huge benefactor of quantum computing which I know it sounds crazy but I think Amazon is actually a much better bet for most people much better investment for most people than something like Q. I am very bullish on Amazon to be clear. They are my largest individual stockholding by far. uh and I have been adding to them aggressively.
First of all, uh I know it doesn't sound sexy, but let me walk through some of the reasons why I think a uh Amazon right now is still an amazing buy. Okay, so this is this company is down about 2% in the last day. It ran up to 280. It still seems like it's, you know, it's up a lot, right? Um year to date, it's up 15%, but it went up 30%. So people think, oh, this is too expensive. I won't buy it. Fact is, over the last 5 years, it's only up 60%. It's actually lagged behind the S&P 500. Um, this is one of the best companies though for AI in the future. Why is that? Well, they have a massive chip business. It just came out that uh let me see here. Um, where is that? Yeah. Um, their custom chip business exceeded $20 billion a year in annualized run rate revenue. Um, and it's growing at triple digits. So, it's growing over 100% a year. They said if it was a standalone business it would the run rate would approach $50 billion which is comparable with AMD. Keep in mind AMD is only doing over the you know if you create a run rate it's doing about $40 billion. So it's doing less than AWS would do if a uh or if the chip business a custom business um at Amazon was its own company. So, let's say let's say that part of Amazon's business is worth just the same as AMD, even though AMD is only growing 38%. And we're saying this custom chip business on at Amazon's growing three times that. It's growing over 100%. But let's say it's worth the same. Okay, that means that this business that just has been growing massively in the last couple years is worth $700 billion and it's just within Amazon. it just it's casually worth 1/4th of Amazon's total market cap. Amazon's only worth 2.8 8 billion and we're saying that their their their chip business is worth 1/4 of this company and actually it's probably worth closer to a trillion dollars I'd say if it's the same same size as AMD and it's growing three times as fast and I might even say it's worth more than that but okay so you have about $2 trillion left for $2 trillion outside of the chips right you get AWS you get their massive moat of retail you get uh advertising You get uh did I say AWS? You you get uh so many things and there are two quickest growing industries AWS and advertising are reacelerating. Um AWS just went up to a 28% growth rate. It's starting to accelerate quicker and quicker. Um it's those two quickest growing parts of their business are also the most profitable. So this was the fastest growth rate we've seen in 4 years from AWS and this is because they're investing a lot back into their business uh in infrastructure and capex. So you have this massive chip business. This is the hardest company in the world to disrupt. I mean you would have to spend hundreds of billions of dollars if not more to be able to have their retail footprint which a lot of people might say well that's not that important. Why would you want their retail business cuz it's not really that profitable? Well, think about the the best industries that will benefit from AI in within the next couple years. They they've already been able to fire uh lay off tens of thousands of employees a year due to AI while still growing revenue. So, they have been able to continue to grow their retail business, continue to have a deeper and deeper moat. Um I I use I use u Amazon every day for packages basically. seems like every day at least. Um, I don't want their physical stores. I want their first party. There we go. So, their retail business has been growing still pretty significantly like very steady growth even over the last couple years, even after CO, right? A lot of businesses, you know, maybe had pull forward from CO. No, I think this just benefited from it because a lot of people realized, oh, this is way easier just to order on Amazon and then not have to deal with going 10 minutes to a store, walking through the store than walking back home or driving back home 10 minutes. That's a half an hour trip for something I can spend 40 seconds on on Amazon start to finish. So, this will continue to grow bigger and bigger.
There's they're spending a lot of money, too, to improve their services like with quicker delivery times. So, if anyone wanted to build a business like this, again, half a trillion dollars, it would take maybe a decade to be able to get their reach, their their um how people use them. Like, it would take so long to get that number of customers and to get that level of quality. Like using Amazon just really easy. It's really easy to use Amazon. Also, they have so much data. So, you'd have to buy a ton of land, spend hundreds of billions of dollars. you'd have to get users and why why would anyone use you versus Amazon, right? So, um it's also going to be the biggest company to benefit from AI. They have a massive retail business. They have massive distribution. They have a massive ad business which is going to get way better from AI as well. Like, it's just going to be easier to target users and to make things more profitable. Um, also they have a massive cloud business, which is one of the things I'm most excited about. their cloud business is going to take huge advantage from AI in a world of AI. There's going to be so much data. I mean, think about when we start to have robots that walk around or like, you know, even Roombas, like something like a Roomba, but it has AI integrated into it and it just kind of like looks around your house for issues, right? Think about how much data that would have and how much data would have to be stored somewhere. Like even just your cell phone, think about how much data you have on your cell phone now compared to 3 or 4 years ago.
all this you know all this information from the next 10 20 30 years has to be stored somewhere it's going to be stored largely at AWS so this this part of their business is hugely profitable it's going to continue growing they also Amazon has the ability to reinvest in themselves unlike any other company right there are unprofitable companies like Q that continue to reinvest all right but they're basically burning money trying to get to something Amazon already has hund00 billion a year plus that they can reinvest in their business because their legacy businesses are just really profitable. They're really profitable and then they can just continue to invest these large sums that will get great returns and they have so much data. They have so much money. They can just buy things that don't make sense for other people to buy or to create cuz they know that longterm it will do really really well. They also have a large stake in Anthropic which has Claude which is a similar chatbot to chat GPT and this is a trillion dollar company that's growing at like three like triple digits every single month.
It seems like it seems like it's doubling um in terms of revenue growth month after month after month. I I just started spending $200 a month on it because it can run stuff for me every day and be basically an employee for or like two or three employees for like $6 a day, which is just incredible. And I think more and more companies are going to use this. And Amazon owns a large stake in Anthropic. They're a huge owner of it. So you have that baked in, you have their massive chip business, you have their cloud, you have their retail business. it's going to become hugely profitable because it's low margin but with robots it's going to become even higher margin um like a double an increase in margin is just going to provide huge amounts of profits. They have the deepest mode they have advertising they have oh they have a media business as well that's massive too um they have unlimited cash flow to fund longshot bets unlike IQ that has to dilute you. They're not diluting shareholders. No, they're not diluting like at all. Uh, I guess 1% in the last year. And you get all this for under $3 trillion, which that might sound like a lot, but this is almost half. This is just like half the size of Nvidia today's prices.
Like actually look, uh, 2.82 versus Nvidia, which is 5.52. It is almost exactly half the size of Nvidia, which I'm not saying you should you shouldn't buy Nvidia because you can buy Amazon or anything like that, but I think Amazon is just still very attractive. It's only a mid20s PE ratio, too. I mean, it shows as like a 31 forward, but they constantly beat expectations. So, I would not be surprised if it was better than expected. Also, this is not expensive in historical terms. This has thrown off their price to earnings ratio and their cash flows because of all the different investments that they have and investments that they're making. But when you look at a price to operating cash flow, which takes out some of those large one-time benefits or drags, they're not expensive. Let's actually pull that up. Price to operating cash flow. Amazon, it is at a 20, a 19.5, which it was lower to be clear. It was uh like a 16, which was the lowest that we've seen in over a decade, but it's right around 19.2, which it averages about 24. So, I don't think it's expensive right now. I think it's actually fairly cheap, and I think their modes are better than ever. I think they're more profit profitable than ever. And I think it's a great time to buy something like this because AI is only going to continue to improve their businesses, right? U the underlying business of Amazon gets better year after year after year and a lot of people discount it because they think it's big and bloated and it hasn't moved in a while. The fact is that's just very short-term thinking. Let me know your thoughts. This is not the sexiest business, but I think a lot of people should be thinking it is the sexiest business because they are just they're an amazing company. And these Amazon, Google, um these types of companies are the best capital allocators in history.
Like they are the Warren Buffetts that are just disguised and no one sees them because they buy smaller companies. They throw cash at things that are significantly unprofitable. Even like quantum computing, right? They can throw money in a way that NQ can't. Let's say they start to see a breakthrough, but it's going to cost $10 billion. No question about it. They can throw $10 billion at it.
No question. Like, that's not even a problem. So, they can continue to fund things that seem unprofitable or are unprofitable right now for a decade if they see massive potential. And they've done this in the past. We haven't even gotten into some of their business lines like the competitors to Starlink. They have a competitor to Starlink that will give uh internet access anywhere in the world. So the their business is massive.
I I think it's a great time to invest. I it has been a great time to invest. I invested heavily when it was around 200.
I still think people will miss the boat right now and they won't understand until Amazon starts showing profitability which means that they'll just cut back on some of their capex spending. But eventually they'll do that and they'll be one of the most profitable companies in the world. But the fact is now they can continue to get great returns on their investments. So why pull back, right? So let me know your thoughts on this underneath a video. Let me know if you are buying any of these companies I talked about today.
I'm not bearish on INQ either. It could do extremely well, but I just think it's much higher risk than something like Amazon. Um so maybe you know if you're constructing a portfolio and you like the idea of quantum computing, well you can throw on Q in there, right? You can throw in a small allocation towards it and then throw larger allocations towards something like Google or Amazon, which always seem expensive unless they're in a significant crash. They always seem expensive, but a lot of the times in those significant crashes, people don't want to invest in them because they're like, "Well, I see a cheaper stock over here or this could always fall further or I'm going to go buy some higher risk stock because that one's down even more." So, I think it's always a good time to be adding to Amazon. So, let me know your thoughts underneath the video. I really do appreciate it. Thank you so much for watching. Again, you can try the different exchanges out underneath and I'll see you in the next one. Bye. Just a reminder, this is not financial advice. This is not legal advice. Do your own research. I'm never going to reach out to you either in the comment section or through any other means to try to get you to invest in something that I'm investing in or to send me crypto. Some links underneath the video are affiliate links. I may earn a commission, but this is at no extra cost to you.
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