THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL BE MASSIVE FOR ALTCOINS

追加: 2026-05-11

[00:00:12]Yo, what is going on everybody? Welcome back to another Kev Capital video where we spend some time pulling back the curtain on some of the most important charts in the market and what it means for you. Before we jump into the video today, if you enjoy the content, please like, subscribe, and leave a comment below. Also, do not forget to check the links in the description below where you can visit patreon.com/kevcap and analyze, trade, and invest the markets with me on a daily basis. We are now running a two-tier subscription system which provides premier access to absolutely everyone for an affordable rate. And with that being said, let's jump right into it. Today, I want to provide you all an update to the altcoins market. Now, we're going to start off with total two. Maybe we'll look at total three. We'll just kind of start off there and see what's currently going on because there is some things to talk about. Now, I know from a chart perspective, it doesn't look like much is happening, but this is the counter trend rally that I talked about that would occur in the late winter, early spring time frame. And we're at entering into some really major levels. And I want us to kind of identify what kind of structure are we forming here. Is this a low? Is this a higher time frame low where we're going to have a bare market breakout into a new high? or is this just a counter trend rally within a higher time frame downtrend? Things are getting tricky, right? Because we're at the ending phase of that counter trend rally prediction. Right? We've basically accomplished every goal in terms of what I put out there for Bitcoin and USDT dominance. Those were an amazing call and I'm really proud of that. But at this point, it's time to move on from that and say, "All right, what's going to happen now?" Because we are at a very, very critical stage. The sentiment is improving drastically. Um and and at this point it's you know that's very natural to occur at resistance obviously after the rally has already occurred but where do we go from here right where do we go from here? So that's what I want to talk about and with that being said let's jump right into it. So as you know total 2 which includes Ethereum and the altcoin market did bottom out at this 0.5 fib at around 800 871 billion. If we actually go to the weekly time frame, you'll also see this is basically the 200week moving average and the 200 EMA.

[00:02:18]So the 200WE SMA, 200WE EMA. So there was a lot of support in there after a major drop down, right? Because we had our initial high at the previous all-time highs, legged down, had our initial corrective phase, had a counter trend rally in January, then legged down again, that confirmed the bare market.

[00:02:36]Now we're having another counter trend rally back up to resistance. But I think the daily time frame is what's going to give us a really good look here at what is exactly happening. So let's just kind of zoom in, right? As you guys know, and I've been teaching you what a higher time frame uptrend and downtrend looks like. The first thing and the most important thing in determining that in the crypto market is by using the Bitcoin and USDT dominance chart, not the altcoins chart. Altcoins can break out above and break down below. That does not determine the trend for the entire market. Bitcoin always does first and then USDT dominance also. But for the sake of the video, we can use this as some evidence to kind of give us an idea what's going on. We know Bitcoin's at resistance right now. That's not a secret. We know we've hit the top end of the range of where I was eyeing for a late winter, early spring counter trend rally. But in terms of the altcoin market, this is also at a really critical zone. Look where we're currently at after this counter trend move. You're at the golden pocket 1.3 trillion to 1.08 08 trillion. You're at the bull market support band, which is the 21week EMA and the 20week SMA.

[00:03:42]Currently getting rejected off that. And just above us, you have the 200 day SMA and 200 day EMA. Okay, so a lot of resistance in here, folks. You can see on the last counter trend rally where we had a really nice double bottom, you kind of topped out right at those moving averages, basically where we are now before legging lower. You're basically doing the exact same thing now. So, in terms of even having an opportunity to say the trend has changed, that's not the case yet. So, I know you're going to see a lot of people who are getting super bullish out there and maybe that's rightfully so. Maybe we do end up changing the trend. All I'm saying is is it's too preliminary to to get that excited, right? We haven't accomplished the goal yet, right? It feels like, and I'm not saying it's the same time because it's absolutely not, but it feels like last year in the summer when we were up here and everyone was getting excited. It was like, "Oh my god, here we go. Price discovery on total 2 and ETH. All coins are going to go crazy."

[00:04:36]But it didn't happen because we never broke out, right? People get the most excited at the biggest resistance levels is basically what I'm saying. And I'm telling you that we need to stay grounded. let the data be our best friend and make sure we just stay emotionalist, unbiased, and track this market the same way we've been tracking it, which is what works. So, the biggest thing that I want to point out here is, yeah, obviously we know, look where we're at. We're at major resistance.

[00:05:01]Same thing with Bitcoin. USDT dominance is approaching that 2.5 year range it broke out of as support, right? We know we're at a critical stage. It's it's obvious. It's no secret. I'm very curious to kind of look at this structure, though, right? And I pointed this out in the last video. It's just a really oddlooking structure off the lows, right? This this doesn't look like your typical bottom, like your actual higher time frame bare market breakout, new bull market start and bottom. It's just really odd looking, right? It's just very lackluster, choppy to the upside type of behavior. Typically, you don't see this type of price action be a higher time frame bottom, which is why I'm still very skeptical that we're back in, you know, a bull market, right?

[00:05:42]Because one, the trend needs to change first and foremost. Unbiasedly, that has to happen. But just from a structural perspective, this is just oddlooking, right? It doesn't look like a true bottom. Like look at over here, right?

[00:05:54]And I pointed this out. Look at this really nice bottoming formation that you had form when we were at the lows before ETH and Total 2 went on their biggest rally of the cycle. You know, look at this corrective phase where you had this really, really nice just choppy period down at the lows, right? You kind of kept forming these, you know, double bottoms, triple bottoms, a quadruple bottom, right? You really chopped around, got rejected a few times from the KMAs before then exploding higher.

[00:06:21]This was like a nice accumulation range.

[00:06:23]Okay, like another example is look at the previous bare market, right? Um, you just I don't even need to, you know, we can make it bigger, I guess, but just look at all the fake out pumps that we had at the lows before really starting that new bull run, right? You just these signs of accumulation occurring, okay?

[00:06:41]Really choppy behavior. You get rejected at the key moving averages many, many times as you could see, right? This is totally normal in bare markets. Maybe a break above them here, a little fake out, which is why we always stick to Bitcoin first in identifying a trend change. Like I said at the beginning, all coins can do things in bare markets that make you feel like, holy crap, it's over. But in reality, you always need to watch Bitcoin first. But again, right, just it's more of the structure I'm talking about. Just these nice bottoms that form. Okay, this is a little different looking, right? If you kind of see, it's just been this upward move the whole time, right? It's kind of been similar to this, right? If we if you look at this rally, look at this rally we had back in June of 2022 off the lows, right? Everybody remembers if you were here the 11week time period where we absolutely got crushed from April to June, okay? It was just absolutely brutal. Even in July, right, in mid late to July, we were getting crushed. But look at this really nice strong snapback rally we had that actually had some structure to it, right? Look at that.

[00:07:42]You had a little bottom here. You had a nice move up. It really looked like something was being formed there, but all in all, you ended up getting rejected and, you know, kind of chopping back down at the lows. This was the low of the bare market, but you kind of just had these fake out pumps until you had more accumulation throughout the year into the summertime, right? So, and obviously you guys know, right? You we called the counter trend rally perfectly. All of the goals have been accomplished in terms of that. You know what my outlook has been? I do believe we're going to see summertime weakness.

[00:08:09]I don't believe that the true bottom is in yet. I think we either come down and double bottom or make a higher low or make another low. I don't know how that would look. Not short. But that's just been my overall thesis. Now, obviously, right, from an unbiased perspective and a portfolio management perspective, you got to be prepared for both, right? And I am prepared for both at this current moment. Um, if we were to change the trend on Bitcoin and the altcoins market, you got to be able to pivot, right? and you your portfolio should already somewhat be prepared for that ahead of time so that you're experiencing upside. I'm doing the best I can to execute on that. I think I'm doing a good job. I'm already in plays that are up really really nice off the lows. I also have software plays as I as you know those run in tandem. I'm trying to keep that all in one bucket for the upcoming bull cycle which I believe will end up occurring in software and crypto.

[00:09:01]That's another story. Watch the previous video, you'll understand what I'm talking about. But just from a structural perspective, I don't know.

[00:09:07]This just really bothers me this this type of action, right? It almost looks like, you know, you kind of want to do something like this at some point. And again, I don't know for certain that will happen. I'm just saying maybe, you know, one more up thrust and then you come down and break the trend line here, right? And then maybe, you know, make a double bottom or or just or maybe we end up going lower. I don't know. I'm just saying that I want to see better structure at the lows, right? I want to see a real durable looking bottom. And at the moment, this just doesn't look like that, right? It just looks like a upwards kind of counter trend rally consolidation. Now, if it ends up being the lows and we just po pop up from here, by all means, that would be an interesting low to analyze in the future as wow. You know, we don't need to form these really nice structural lows in order to form an actual higher time frame low. I'm just saying that based off any technical analysis out there, typically you, you know, form a little bit better of a low, a higher time frame low, something more constructive. I just don't see that at the current moment.

[00:10:05]And you can even say that like looking at Total Three, right? Total three has this really nice counter trend move here up into its major moving averages. And until we really break above that, it's still just kind of that same story where, you know, the altcoins are just getting rejected from these key moving averages before lagging lower. Um, this is the whole market at the moment, right? Total two, same thing. Total three, same thing. And, um, you know, you want to see that breakout and come back and retest and hold. Similar to what we talk about on Bitcoin, right? If you want to see a higher time frame trend change, that's what you're going to want to see. So, um, that's basically what I wanted to point out here is that, you know, if this is just a counter trend rally, okay, if this is just what we said it would be in this late winter, early spring time frame, we'll know in the next couple weeks. Okay, so the next 10 to 14 days are going to be really big because we're either going to get rejected here and continue the bare market or my thesis will potentially be on the verge of being broken and we will head higher. We will come back and retest and we will plow higher on the Bitcoin chart. USDT dominance will fully break down. All coins will fully break out. You'll see the high net money flow, high whale money flow, the volume start really coming in. For now, that hasn't happened and we're at the end of the counter trend rally time frame. And in terms of price action, right, you're at that we're about to be in summer. Okay, Memorial Day is right around the corner.

[00:11:34]You're at major resistance. Okay, the resistance we said we would come back up to. Now it's time to play ball, right?

[00:11:41]We're going to see what happens here.

[00:11:43]So, um, if we just look at some of the indicators here, you can see, right, daily time frame momentum, eh, you know, nothing too crazy. Kind of curling over a little bit, but nothing too crazy. Um, Lacd momentum pretty small, right?

[00:11:56]Nothing really major. I know the moving averages are moving up, but expansionary wise, pretty lackluster, right? It's actually, look at, you can see kind of just making these lower highs in momentum. Okay, indicating a lack of volume. Okay. Um, whale money flow moving up right now, right? So, there's obviously been moves in the altcoin market. Whales have been helping that out, but you know, we'll just have to keep an eye on it. Nothing super explosive. Currently at a 63. It's not terrible. It's not great either. Stock RSI on the daily time frame. Maybe a little double top forming here. You did come down here to that. You love these retests, right? These are great. You come down to the 80 level and bounce higher and you need another move, but we'll see. We'll just have to see. It looks like momentum may be starting to slow down a little bit while you're at resistance. We'll have to keep an eye on it. Um, with that being said, that's why I wanted to make the video because I wanted to talk about the bottoming structure. I wanted to talk about where are we at now, Kev. You know, the counter trend rally has played out. Is this a bull market or not? I just answered that question for you. We don't know yet. Um, I told you what my overall thesis is that hasn't changed and uh what we need to watch out for here in the coming two weeks. I I put two weeks on it, right? I think two weeks is enough time to really figure out, you know, what are we doing here? Are we about to go into, you know, a whole different thing than we're used to doing in midterm years, or was this just a counter trend move? So, I hope this video helped you guys out. If it did, please like, comment, subscribe, and obviously again, don't forget to check the links in the description below, or you can visit patreon.comkevcap.

[00:13:23]Big big updates there. Uh, more uh subscription tiers, more affordable for everybody to join. Um, really, really awesome. Super proud of that. been working hard on that over the last few months to just give more access to everybody out there, especially in some of these harder times for the crypto market. But um with that being said, keep an eye on the structure, folks.

[00:13:41]Keep an eye on these moving averages.

[00:13:42]Keep an eye on the Bitcoin moving averages. Keep an eye on all this all the stuff we talk about because yes, are we at the finish line of the counter trend rally? Yes, we are. But now we're entering into a different phase, the summertime phase. What it's about to happen? Are we about to do something different than we normally do or is the normal thesis going to play out where this was just a rally and then we roll over and and go on with our business into the summertime like it normally does? We'll have to find out. And um I will obviously keep watching Nind indicators very closely for all of you so that you can stay ahead of the game.

[00:14:12]You guys all have a nice day. Peace out.