SPACEX IPO. Yes or No?

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:05]I'm going to have a rant about SpaceX IPO, which is coming up in a few days.

[00:00:12]Now, the question is in a lot of people's minds, how do I get it?

[00:00:16]But into even more people's minds is should I get it?

[00:00:20]Well, if you were in crypto, which you're probably not, you would have learned the following phrase.

[00:00:27]Exit liquidity.

[00:00:29]What's that?

[00:00:31]Well, that's you.

[00:00:32]I.E. your liquidity, their exit.

[00:00:37]Does this apply to SpaceX?

[00:00:39]It's a good question, but it's one that should be asked and you should ask yourself. So, I thought about this.

[00:00:46]And I thought I'd give the whole thing both barrels. And the answer going to give about the SpaceX IPO is not what you're expecting. Oh, no.

[00:00:56]But you should hear the thought process I'm going to go through.

[00:01:00]Because that's what my channel's about.

[00:01:02]The thought process that you need to have to make investments.

[00:01:07]So, let's look at Elon Musk, cuz that's really what you're buying shares in.

[00:01:11]Elon.

[00:01:12]Now, I think Elon is great. Hold on a minute. I thought Elon was great until he lost me like 30,000 bucks.

[00:01:20]And how did he do that?

[00:01:23]Well, it would be unkind of me to say he lied.

[00:01:27]>> [laughter] >> But um it felt like it. What happened was he came out and he said, "I'm going to buy Twitter." And I said, "Oh, that's great. Excellent. Oh, well done there, Elon. Oh, look at the share price. It's way below what he says he's going to pay for it."

[00:01:40]Well, in the stock market, when you say you're going to buy something like that and at what price, you better have a good reason to pay less or you really can't really say I changed my mind.

[00:01:52]I mean, you can't.

[00:01:54]There's a whole slews of laws and agreed behavior that says if you say I'm going to buy this company for 10 bucks, you have to buy for 10 bucks.

[00:02:05]Or you get into deep poo. So, I thought oh, that's great. Well, the market doesn't seem to believe him, but I believe him. I do.

[00:02:13]I believe Elon. So, I bought quite a bit.

[00:02:17]And then, a few weeks later, he came out and he says, "Oh, no. No, I've changed my mind. No, it wasn't me. I didn't do it." Boom, and down it goes. So, that was like goodbye to 30 grand.

[00:02:28]Let's just say I was somewhat miffed.

[00:02:30]Now, I don't mind losing 30 grand, but I do mind if someone says they're going to do something and they don't. I mind a lot.

[00:02:38]And it wasn't as if there was any really reason for it. He came out and said he was going to buy it and everybody said he was mad. And, you know, you you had a good point if you believed that he was mad to do it. But, if you take a man at his word, and that's really what investing is all about, then you expect him to stick to it. So, anyway, by the way, I might actually get me money back because he's getting sued.

[00:03:00]And anybody that bought after he said it and sold before he had to go back and buy it is meant to be getting a payout, or could possibly get a payout, but not that I care, but it would be nice to get me 30 grand back. But, anyway, he of course came out later. We didn't come out later. The SEC came out later and said, "Oi, Musk, no, no, you got to buy it now. You said it. You got to buy it." And he went, "Oh, oh." And then he bought it. Cuz he was forced to at the, you know, barrel of a SEC case to buy it. So, he bought it. And then, the rest as they say is history. But, for me, that marked his card.

[00:03:37]He went from, in my mind, some amazing, well, he's amazing guy, but, you know, somebody that I would back to somebody I'm going to look down my nose at when he wants some backing.

[00:03:50]So, anyway, that's my beef with Elon.

[00:03:53]30 grand's worth. That's a nice bottle of wine right there.

[00:03:56]But anyway, think about it a bit more.

[00:03:58]So, we've got Tesla.

[00:04:01]Tesla is an amazing company, without doubt.

[00:04:04]However, what does it do? It makes cars.

[00:04:07]Okay?

[00:04:08]Yeah, it makes electric cars.

[00:04:10]They're robots on wheels. No, no, they're cars.

[00:04:13]And the valuation of Tesla is massively massively more than Ford and GM.

[00:04:20]Well, it's not for me to say, but that's kind of interesting.

[00:04:24]But of course, the valuation is all about what's coming next, and that's autonomous taxis. Well, there was going to be autonomous cars, but has it happened yet? I don't know, but it was a long time coming if it did. And he got paid a reasonably large amount of money to provide it, and then took a long time to, you know, fess up and deliver it.

[00:04:43]And you know, who knows what went on there, but obviously the self-driving taxis is going to be a big thing.

[00:04:51]Why?

[00:04:52]Why?

[00:04:53]I mean, what's Uber worth?

[00:04:56]I go look. Well, Uber is worth 143 billion. So, if Musk can knock them out, completely take them out entirely, and Waymo, and and Lyft, and anybody else that's in that area, 140 odd billion. Uh trillion?

[00:05:13]He's got a car company.

[00:05:15]And if he was Ford, he'd be worth Let's go have a look at Ford.

[00:05:18]63 billion.

[00:05:21]Tesla sells, according to what I'm looking at on the web, 94 billion.

[00:05:27]So, half of Ford.

[00:05:33]Is that 10 times sales I see before me?

[00:05:37]No, that looks like 16 times sales.

[00:05:39]Anyway, major multiple of sales to making cars.

[00:05:44]I mean, I'm just looking at the web. I mean, you know, Ford.3 which means they make a hundred eighty billion dollars of cars.

[00:05:55]Ooh, twice of Tesla.

[00:05:57]And the market cap 60 billion, not 1.6 trillion. But, of course, it's not the story.

[00:06:04]They make robots on wheels. Yes, they do.

[00:06:07]That's the story, isn't it? Robots. Yes, of course, robots.

[00:06:12]It's not Soda City. No, it went away.

[00:06:15]It's um mhm robots. Yes, that robot that kind of walks like that.

[00:06:22]That's not out yet.

[00:06:23]Well, I can buy a robot that does kung fu and jumps over backwards on his head from China right now for eighteen thousand dollars.

[00:06:33]So, mhm Yeah? I mean, I'd short Tesla if I was mad, A, and B, if I could actually stomach shorting, which I I hate shorting. But, anyway, 1.6 trillion dollars for a car company that has sales of a I'll call it a hundred billion. Why not? Make it round.

[00:06:55]It's very interesting. When you say sales, they don't want to tell you. Out there on the web, it doesn't want to tell you. He wants to say how many cars.

[00:07:02]He doesn't want to say how much money.

[00:07:04]That's kind of interesting. One could get conspiratorial about that.

[00:07:07]But, anyway, Tesla, a hundred billion in sales, Ford, a hundred eighty billion in sales, Tesla, fifteen times sales in market cap, Ford,.33.

[00:07:19]So, the difference between making robots on wheels and making cars on wheels is a multiple of sixty.

[00:07:28]And the robots? Well, they're coming.

[00:07:31]They're coming.

[00:07:33]They're already here if you want to buy a Chinese one.

[00:07:36]So, anyway, mhm I'm not shorting Tesla. I'm not shorting Tesla. I don't care. I do care.

[00:07:41]Yeah, I probably do care. Because he's going to do something cool. He's going to going to make tunnels underneath cities and improve transport.

[00:07:50]Ah, no, no, that didn't work, did it?

[00:07:51]Ah, sorry, sorry, sorry. He's going to make tubes and they're going to fire you down tubes from California San Francisco to California Los Angeles and ah oh, no, it's not.

[00:08:02]Hm.

[00:08:03]Okay. Okay. So, he's going to do an AI company and it's going to be brilliant and oh, he's built it. Oh, he's spent a fortune. Oh, lots lots of weird Oh, and he's bought Twitter. Oh, why?

[00:08:14]Oh, it must be a reason. Must be a very good reason. Oh, and he's leased all the hardware to Anthropic. Oh, that's kind of weird and kind of interesting and kind of strange. But anyway, let's forget that. SpaceX. Now, we do know that SpaceX is amazing.

[00:08:30]We do know Well, we think we know. We've seen the videos. Hopefully, they're real. Hopefully, they're not AI. We do know Actually, I have two Starlinks, so I do know it's up there because one is in my back garden for when, you know, it doesn't work from the local telephone company and one is in a backpack, so when I'm up a mountain somewhere, um you know, picking daisies or when I'm in um some place in Greece floating about in some wild hot spring, I can get me internet. So, that is good.

[00:08:59]That is amazing. I love it. I love it.

[00:09:01]SpaceX.

[00:09:03]They land rockets backwards from space on a floating barge two at a time.

[00:09:08]It's incredible. It's amazing. It's amazing. It's incredible.

[00:09:11]And he's got Elon behind it. Yes, who's obviously a genius.

[00:09:16]He certainly seems to be outsmarting everybody, so he must be a genius, but he is responsible for doing that. And yes, he's probably shot himself in the foot with what he did with the government a few months ago. But and probably taking his eye off the ball and probably, you know, having a rush to catch up from where he left off before he started mucking about with the toxic guys.

[00:09:35]Anyway, so SpaceX IPO, it's an amazing thing.

[00:09:39]And it's doing quite a lot of stuff.

[00:09:42]SpaceX is doing more than the rockets.

[00:09:44]So, I think it's something like 250 billion in sales.

[00:09:49]And they're going for like let's call it 2 trillion or 1.75 trillion, you know, keep the numbers round, makes it easier.

[00:09:56]Yeah, so 10 times sales, not bad.

[00:09:59]Reasonable, I reckon. 10 times sales for a company that can well, the only company In fact, the only people at all that can stick stuff in space without having a panic attack. Yeah, I mean, Elon Musk is the only man in the world that can say, "I want to be in orbit next week, fix it for me." He is Ming the Merciless when it comes to space.

[00:10:21]And there he is wanting you to buy in with him.

[00:10:26]Okay, that's maybe a little bit of a downside when you reflect on it, but should you?

[00:10:32]Now, what is the opportunity?

[00:10:36]Well, the opportunity is the whole blooming universe. I mean, no one else can get out there.

[00:10:41]No one else controls the transport.

[00:10:45]I mean, who cares what you do out there?

[00:10:46]It's the whole blooming universe. It's like, you know, sailing out of Plymouth heading for America. You know, nobody owns that stuff out there. Oh, hold on, wait a minute now, I'll take that back.

[00:10:56]So, it's a big market opportunity. Let's just put it that way. A big, big market opportunity.

[00:11:03]Yeah, maybe you can put solar farms out there. Yeah, maybe if you can find a way to cool the blooming things down, which is going to be a a bit of a deal breaker, but you know, it's out there.

[00:11:13]It's everything out there. It's the rest of the whole universe. So, that is a big market opportunity, particularly when the person running it is Elon Musk.

[00:11:21]However, now on 2 trillion for a company that launches rockets and got its whole future, well, not really, but it feels like it, staked on the Starship, which is, you know, relatively amusing in the way that it lands in the middle of the sea and blows up.

[00:11:42]But, you know, they've done it with the with the with the other stuff, the Falcon Heavy's and all that, and they've got thousands of these Starlinks up there. So, they are the only people that can do it. And when you look at the other trillion-dollar companies, it is right that it should be in that group of companies. It's reasonable, because if you look at companies with a hundred to sales market caps, well, you know, 10 15 when you own space, pretty much. You own the only way to get there, so why not say you own it?

[00:12:15]Sounds like a good idea.

[00:12:17]Sounds like a great idea.

[00:12:19]If you put your rose-colored glasses on, hold on, let me have a go at that.

[00:12:27]Who the hell wouldn't invest in SpaceX?

[00:12:33]But, how?

[00:12:34]Everyone's thinking about getting into the IPO. Will it pop? If I get in and it doesn't pop, oh, no, silly me.

[00:12:41]Well, this is what I will be doing.

[00:12:44]So, this will give you something to think about.

[00:12:48]What do I think will happen?

[00:12:50]I don't know.

[00:12:52]Well, I I kind of feel I do, but I don't.

[00:12:55]I think it will go open, pop. You know, some people will be fast enough to get out, most people won't, or won't even get in.

[00:13:02]And then, after a few days, it'll drop like a rock.

[00:13:06]And then, it won't.

[00:13:08]And then, it'll do its thing.

[00:13:11]So, the way to go with SpaceX, if you believe that space is the future, and if you feel, as I do, that there's only one game in town, the Chinese haven't, you know, the Chinese have taken away the glitz on robots of the future from Tesla because they're here, his stuff ain't and there's no sign of it.

[00:13:34]Okay? And Tesla, what is that now? And But SpaceX, well, that's doing just absolutely mind-boggling amazing stuff and has been for a significant amount of time.

[00:13:47]And is a gigantic opportunity.

[00:13:50]It is a $10 trillion opportunity, $100 trillion opportunity. It's the whole universe.

[00:13:56]So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to sit here and watch.

[00:14:01]You knew I was going to say that, didn't you?

[00:14:03]I'm going to sit here and watch and then I'm going to dollar cost average in.

[00:14:10]I'm going to go ah, I'll have I don't know, whatever. I won't say the number of that.

[00:14:16]And it will be a small clip.

[00:14:19]It will not be a what I class as a position.

[00:14:22]And then in three or four months, I'll buy another one.

[00:14:25]And then in three or four months, I'll buy another one. And then in three or four months, I'll buy another one. I'll keep doing that and watching indefinitely.

[00:14:32]Because if you look at a Google for example, back in the day when it came out, I think it was 80 bucks. I looked at it and went 80 bucks, you've got to be kidding me.

[00:14:41]But if I just gone that's ridiculous, I'll buy some in three months time, just a little bit and then another bit in three months time and another bit in three months time, I would have been a happy boy. I would have probably sold a couple of years later, but nonetheless, it would have been a good methodology. And when I was out there buying Nvidia cards like they were going out of business or rather you couldn't get a hold of them, it was the company selling them that were going out of business, not Nvidia. In fact, Nvidia was saying, "No, you can't have them. We don't want your business. We want it to go to other people." You know, rather than buying those blooming GPUs which are worth 100 bucks now and were, you know, costing me 1,600.

[00:15:14]I should have been buying that stock.

[00:15:18]But if I just DCA'd into Nvidia from whenever it was, 2016 or 17, you know, a few grand every every month, I'd be very happy boy.

[00:15:30]So, that is the way to go with SpaceX.

[00:15:33]If you're a believer, you could look at what I'm going to do and think about it. Dollar cost average into SpaceX. Now, it's not advice to do so, because you might not be suitable for that. But, that's what I would be doing, because then I'll take the rough with the smooth, and I won't get into any of this trading nonsense, and I won't cry when they announce some bad figures or when one of their spaceships blow up or whatever it does, headbutts a light.

[00:15:59]Yeah, or change the the tune and they're not going to put um service centers in space after all and whatever, decide not to go to Mars. I won't cry, because they will have space sewn up for quite a long time, and good things are bound to happen, because that is obviously the logical next step for technology.

[00:16:18]So, SpaceX DCA. Now, to extend that idea, in the future, when there are other wondrous companies coming to market, maybe that will be Anthropic, maybe that that will be Chat GPT.

[00:16:31]Sorry, OpenAI.

[00:16:32]Yeah?

[00:16:33]You could do the same with them. Forget the IPO, if you're lucky enough to be able to get any of it.

[00:16:39]Just DCA in.

[00:16:41]Buy a bit every quarter to add to a stack of them over the years, and then you can build up a nice big position and have all the benefits for buy and hold and buy the dip, and all the benefits of building up a long-term position, and all the benefits of not have to wake up at 3:00 a.m. to check the price in Tokyo.

[00:17:00]So, anyway, thanks very much for watching. I hope this is helpful for you. See you again soon. Bye now.