The Social Security trust fund is projected to be exhausted by late 2032, meaning the program will only be able to pay benefits equal to incoming payroll tax revenue. Reform proposals include raising employer payroll taxes incrementally, lifting the contribution cap, and implementing means-tested benefits for high earners. These changes face significant political challenges due to the elderly voting bloc and potential impacts on hiring, making comprehensive reform difficult to achieve.
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06-10-26 Part Two - The Seven Year Ache
Added:[music] >> Now, it's [music] Red Eye Radio. Gary McNamara and Eric Harley talk about everything from politics to [music] social issues and news of the day.
Whether you're up late or you're just starting your day, [music] welcome to the show. From the Relief Factor Studios, this [music] is Red Eye Radio.
>> All across America, we are Red Eye Radio. He is Eric Harley and I'm Gary McNamara. Welcome and good morning.
You know, we [music] we had just talked about the fact that Social Security 7 years.
Last quarter of 2032, they'll run out of reserves. There really are no reserves.
It's just a paying IOU's.
>> Right, yeah.
>> So, they may continue paying that anyway.
Even though that would that would there would have to be an act of Congress to do that.
>> Yeah. Yeah.
>> Take it out of the general fund or whatever, but you and I believe as this as this continues and uh you know, again, you've got so many people retiring and you don't have the younger generations reproducing, which means they got to pay more.
And we've always asked the question, well, first off, we go back to when when when was it? Like 2004 or 2005?
When was it that that Bush said, "Look, let's bring Democrats. Let's solve this problem with Social Security." And Democrats went, "No way. We're not going to help you on this."
And both sides continue to say there's not going to be any changes at all.
There's going to be changes. There may not be the benefits, but in order to pay the benefits, there's going to be changes. One way or another, they have to change. That's just the fiscal reality of it. And anybody who tells you any different is lying to you.
>> Yeah.
>> Uh you're you're going to have to do something about it. You and I always believe that the easy out would be uh to uh raise the tax on employers but not you know, you you do it stealth.
>> Yeah, you do it and you start it slow, of course. You start it with okay, 1% more this year or whatever and then 3 years later, uh you know, another 1% and because right now the employer matches 6 and 1/4, so it's it's a total of 13 6 and 1/2 or 6 and 1/4, whatever it is.
So, you're also making your contribution of 6 and 1/4.
>> Right.
>> As an individual.
I think two, they have been raising the cap of of how much you can contribute basically um I don't know.
Every year since I can remember.
They may raise that cap or you know, in higher increments at some point and then eventually lift the cap all together.
>> Well, if you lift the cap, are you going to because remember, people make based on what they put in.
>> Yeah. Right.
>> if you raise the cap, you're going to be at that upper end. Will you get more money or will they cap it cuz I I you and I think that eventually they're going to have to again have the employer side pay more, re- take off the cap and then limit that you'll have to pay a lot more, but it's not going to be like Social Security is now. If you pay if you're paying the maximum, you're going to get the maximum >> Yeah.
>> that it's not going to continue up that scale.
>> Right.
Right.
>> anymore. That they're going to have a cap They're going to have a cap on benefits and and release the cap on who how much you can pay.
>> a means test at the age of retirement.
>> Yes.
>> So, what that person has been contributing and let's say they lifted the cap all together or or they they brought it up to like half a million a year, or whatever.
Uh then that person is a high earner throughout their career, it's assumed they have also set everything else aside for their retirement, and it's likely there could be a means test that could either offer through the means test, if you qualify and you have a certain net worth at retirement uh the government could offer a one-time buyout, which be would be just a percentage of what you even paid in.
Uh all of these are going to be hard sells, because uh companies are going to be uh impacted if you start with an employer match.
Uh that's there there's no way that doesn't impact hiring. Of cour- Of course it will.
Um and then you know, when it comes to the wealthy there's some out there that of course are on the left. Uh Warren Buffett, uh Bill Gates many of them Elon Musk until recently.
And so, you know, they they look at this and you know, the question is, huh, you need those contributions at election time.
But the question would be, all right, do they see this as something a battle they want to pick at the time.
And it just depends on how it's handled.
It's going to be in small increments, I believe, either way. But 7 years is a short period of time.
>> Will will they lift early retirement to 62?
>> Yeah, for future generations, I think so.
>> think that's a possible I think so.
>> I think it could go to 64.
>> And uh or just eliminate it completely.
Eliminate it completely and continue incrementally raising the age Well, a month every >> One of the place >> every single year as they've been doing to begin with a month or two.
>> One of the one of the plays of that is and and you know, because people will, you know, if they've been maxing out uh you know, look, I'm going to wait till 70 and then you've got it back and forth. If you go to YouTube and type in should I start taking social security 62? By the way, it'll be in your algorithm forever. Um and there's good points and bad points to be made. It depends on again what you're earning at 62 if you are.
Um my brother who recently passed away uh retired at 62.
And so he had uh uh veterans disability, but also had social security.
And so he knew he could retire and he also had savings, 401K and everything else. House that was paid for, vehicle paid for, you know, so he was already he was in a good situation. Uh no family to take care of, no children, grandchildren uh or spouse. So, you know, you look at those situations and there is basically the government uh looking at it, enticing you with that carrot. Hey, if you wait till you're 70, you'll get this much.
And then people looking at and advisors financial advisors will say, well, if you look at the average age, uh you know, in in terms of uh the average uh uh lifespan, then taking it at 62 actually fits for a lot of people if they're not earning any longer at that point. So, I think they'll probably have some form of early retirement. And And again, all of this will happen I think in and in from >> but I don't think the government doesn't care about the early retirement.
>> they don't want that. They want to entice you the carrot over here and it's the 70.
>> So, so I I I wouldn't be surprised if you get closer and they can't come to sorry early retirement's gone.
>> Yeah.
>> Now, it was interesting because I remember when they the discussion going on and was it Ben Shapiro who said nobody should retire at all and then it was it was in like an outrage from people saying, "Well, you can't do manual labor when you're 70 years of age."
>> Right.
>> Cuz his point was you should never you you should never retire.
>> Right. Right.
>> And there are just some jobs where just because of physical capabilities you have to retire and he did give the exemption for that, but that was just it created just a just a you know a fury and the point is there are a lot of people in their 50s that already plan to retire at 62. They're planning to do it and they're saving and doing a bunch of different things and if you pull that out immediately, there'd be an outrage from a significant number of people in their 50s.
>> going to get that done politically. You won't get it done politically. It would have to be like it's been in the past for people born after this year.
Basically, that would now be in maybe in their 40s or maybe in their 30s.
You know, we're going to move it to 65 and 65 is going to be it.
You know, meet in the middle 66 or whatever. You know, and meet in the middle and that's going to be it.
>> Well, what is it now? 67? Is it stuck on 60 the the regular retirement?
>> Yeah, stuck on 66 and or 67 somewhere in there.
>> Yeah, my normal time was 66 years and 2 months.
>> Mhm.
>> And that goes [clears throat] back a few years.
>> is 66 and and a few months, I think.
>> If I remember correctly. I haven't looked at any social security stuff in a while.
So, >> Well, it's you know, again when I when I turned 65, that's that was the benchmark of being old.
>> Yeah.
>> Because that's when all the Medicare stuff hits you.
>> Well, see there's the other part.
>> no, no, no. What Medicare What are you doing here? Get Get the Medicare crap away from me. I'm not that old."
>> Yeah. Yeah.
No, when I I was probably 39 when they started sending me uh AARP stuff. I know that's not the government, but >> [laughter] >> holy cow, man. Slow down. Um but >> "You're eligible." No, I'm not.
>> [laughter] >> I know. But, you know, the >> I I think I started getting it really seriously. I think I started 51, 52 years of age.
>> Oh, no. I think I was about 50 when I started getting AARP stuff.
>> Yeah. Right. Yeah.
Like I'm not even sure I'm through puberty yet.
But, we had the um the the >> [laughter] >> It's none of my business. But, we had, you know, the the that whole discussion on on it is exactly the way it will play out on Capitol Hill. Because you you want the seniors because they show up at election time.
Start pulling money away from them, and you're going to have a problem.
And politically, I don't know how you do it. And financially, I don't know how you fix it without going after the companies first, the wealthy second, and then, you know, that'll be it. They'll keep lifting the cap.
That's That's a given. They're going to keep lifting the cap. And the question is, do they start limiting the benefits based on a means test eventually? I can see that happening.
You know, if if not uh eliminating the benefit it because that wouldn't be if you paid into it, uh that wouldn't be a you know, sellable on Capitol Hill. You could do a one-time buyout kind of thing and say, "Okay, this will happen. If you have this, then you're eligible for a one-time buyout, and that's it. Take it or leave it.
Again, I'm just throwing out ideas of how you fix something that is been on the docket for I don't know.
Underfunded mandates, we've been talking about this for years.
You and I for almost 21 years together.
Next month. So, you know, that's that's where we >> The Congressional Budget Office has said that explained that because the government, exactly what we just said, because the government would not have the legal authority to make payments in excess of receipts. Those are the IOUs.
So, there are no there is no reserve fund.
>> Right.
>> exist.
It's simply the IOUs exist and the government has to pay those IOUs. But once those IOUs are paid, the government does not have the authority, Congress has not given them the authority, the Social Security Administration, uh you know, to allocate any more money.
>> Right.
>> Because Congress allocated the money for the receipts. Once the receipt is done, Congress has to come back in and say, "Okay, no, we're going to continue with it." As I believe they they they will on it. But somebody's going to have to pay the freight on it, as we all know.
>> Oh, yeah. Yeah.
>> And it says, "Social Security benefits are funded by payroll tax receipts along with the trust fund. And once the trust fund is tapped out, there is Remember, there is no money there."
>> Right.
>> Uh the federal government would only be able to pay benefits equal to the incoming payroll tax revenue under current law.
>> Yeah.
>> As we have said, so >> Yep.
>> But uh we will uh we will see. Now, if I don't live that long, I don't care.
>> Yeah, you know, [laughter] the reason I haven't looked at it lately is because I I just I always knew we're doing I I was I was going to have to make other plans.
I'm not going to rely on the government.
I hope it's there for others.
>> Right. And >> I make a lot of money um in radio.
>> And and and with cli- and with climate change we're all doomed anyway, right?
>> Yeah, look, I I was told none of us will be here by 2030.
Elon's going to be on Mars by 2031.
So.
Look.
You know, it's it's I think it's every man for himself.
Bunch of old people looting.
That's what we need.
Just go get what you need.
>> Well, I told you what happened the other day at the Target near me.
>> Some guys in their 60s?
>> These guys in their 60s went in and it's an organized theft ring.
>> That's wild.
>> And you know, the loss control people at Target called the police. The police showed up. There was a high-speed chase of these 60-year-olds.
>> Well, high-speed for them. It was which was 45.
>> [laughter] >> And a blinker on the whole time.
>> Okay, now now I'm thinking of the Seinfeld episode where George Costanza on the little scooter, the senior scooter.
>> [laughter] >> There was a There was a movie. It was uh Al Pacino.
I think Morgan Freeman.
And uh and and uh I'm just blanking on his name. Who did I say, Ron?
Who?
No, not Alan Alda. Alan um Arkin. Arkin.
Alan Arkin.
And Alan Arkin lived in a home.
And I love that I just just love that one. Arkin. Just greatest comedy ever.
And they hired him as driver. They were going to do one last you know, heist or something. I forget it. It was just a low-level comedy. In other words, it wasn't a high-profile movie, but it was a great movie. I got to look up the name of it uh to do it justice, but Alan Alda's one of it They said, "Well, what's going on?"
Uh Alan Alda Alan Arkin.
>> Arkin.
>> He says, you know, he's driving the car.
They're about to go do their thing.
"Well, what's going on with you these days?" You know, "Well, the doctor says I've got to go back in." You know, "Well, what's wrong with you?" "I don't know. It's none of my business."
And he's just just so good.
And then So, when you told me that story the other day, what's the name of the movie, Ron? Do you have it?
Going in Style. Going in Style. Great little comedy. You got to watch it. It's great.
>> I loved Alan Arkin and uh what's his name from Roseanne?
>> Oh, >> John Goodman. In >> In Argo. In >> Argo.
>> Argo.
>> Yeah. At the end when they know the hostages are out.
>> [clears throat] >> That's just a That is one of the one of my favorite scenes of any movie. Now, I remember I I'm old enough to have gone through that >> Yeah.
>> when it actually happened. But, when they realized they got him out and they had set up, you know, the CIA set up a fake movie studio.
>> Right.
>> Uh the uh Is it What's his name? Is this Bob Mendez? The actual CIA officer?
>> And his wife were are They do YouTube videos now. I don't think they're still in the FBI. His wife is is a master of disguises.
What did I say?
>> FBI.
>> I uh CIA. They're both CIA officers. And they talk about she was a master of disguises.
She would not for herself, but for the all of the officers in the field.
And it was, you know, she's on uh one of the magazines did an interview with her on YouTube.
Fascinating. Just fascinating.
>> We are Red Eye Radio.
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>> Coming up, more with Gary McNamara and Eric Harley. It's Red Eye Radio.
>> [music] >> We are Red Eye Radio and he is Eric Harley and I'm Gary McNamara. [music] By the way, it was Tony Mendez.
>> Tony Mendez.
>> CIA agent.
>> Bob Mendez is a friend of mine in Delaware.
>> Right. In in Argo. He died, by the way, in 2019.
>> He passed away in 2019. Uh before that, uh uh I don't know how many videos he did.
I know he did some interviews.
Um but his wife, his second wife, actually was head of disguises there at the CIA.
>> [music] [music] >> Powered by [music] windmills and solar panels. Red Eye Radio.
>> And we are Red Eye Radio. Here's Eric Harley, and I'm Gary McNamara. You know, we talked about this uh yesterday.
Uh and uh it was uh uh basically based on the president over the last couple of days trying to make the separation uh between the United States and uh and Israel. Actually saying in one of his Truth Social post, "Israel and uh Iran need to stop fighting."
And we're just like, uh Israel is us in this war. There is no difference.
>> Yeah, I mean, there's it's it's like it's like as if we weren't a part of it at all, ever.
>> And And but yesterday was, I think, the turning point for a lot of conservatives. Uh and and we had said it even yesterday. Said, "You don't see anyone, none of the influencers, nobody on on the right is defending where the president is going, unless you're a Tucker Carlson."
>> Yeah. Yeah.
>> Uh but none of his conservative base is.
You didn't see it at all. And after yesterday, after the Iran attacked uh the uh the helicopter. Now, what I really want to know is what is this autonomous rescue craft?
>> No, I I I looked at it. It's as far as they know, as far as is known, it's the first time that this type of watercraft actually was used as been used in a rescue situation.
And so, these are called sea drones.
They're 24-ft Saronic Corsairs. And there was one that was used in this rescue mission.
These are autonomous surface vessels, water surface.
The the drone is part of the Pentagon's push to expand unmanned vehicles alongside traditional assets, this according to Reuters.
And I'm intrigued all day long, and it makes a lot of sense, especially if you're talking about rescue missions, depending on the nature of those being rescued. In this case, they they believe that that the uh the crew members could manage getting on those drones, these water drones themselves. This would be the two Army helicopter crew members after their helicopter was shot down there in the Middle East, and it's I mean, I love this idea of not putting other service members in harm's way, but also being able to dispatch very quickly a rescue mission with equipment that is well, it worked this time.
>> Yeah.
>> It was pretty awesome.
>> Yeah, it was it was very intriguing.
>> But the the fact is I think he's almost lost complete conservative support the the has.
>> Yeah. uh right.
>> Example, New York Post.
One of the biggest supporters of the president >> Mhm.
>> and the president going to war with Iran.
>> Yep.
>> Their lead editorial yesterday, "Trump's advisers are letting Tehran play him for a sucker."
That's the headline.
>> Yeah.
>> The United States must of uh must of necessity respond to this attack, President Donald Trump announced Tuesday of Iran's shootdown of a US Apache attack chopper over the Strait of Hormuz.
Central Command soon launched, quote, "proportional strikes."
Which don't sound like enough.
The president needs to show he's serious or Iran will keep trying to play him for a sucker as it has every president going back to Jimmy Carter.
>> Mhm.
>> Consider Trump told the press just hours before the attack, "We're very close to having a very, very, very good, strong, powerful deal."
Well, a country that's very close to sealing a deal in good faith doesn't escalate against its negotiating partner.
This leaves us wondering which presidential advisers are leading him down this garden path to likely humiliation.
By the way, I don't know if that necessarily is true.
>> Well, ultimately he's the commander in chief. He's the commander in chief, yeah.
>> He makes the the call.
>> By one count, he has said, "Nearly there for a peace uh accord 38 times since he announced that almost all of the points of contention have been agreed to and that a two-week period should allow the deal to be consummated. We're now 10 weeks into the 2-week period and everything is going backwards.
Like I said, a Costanza negotiation.
Back then, those final issues were setting verifiable procedures for the end of Iran's nuke program and two, securing permanent free passage through the Strait of Hormuz with any benefits to Iran beyond the end of the US-Israeli bombing to come later. Now suddenly, getting to the deal somehow has Washington telling Jerusalem it can't respond to Hezbollah's missile attacks out of Lebanon.
Bare minimum, Trump's public bragging about ordering Israel around sure makes it look like he's appeasing Iran's outrageous demands.
It's what the Iranians do. Claim they could give us what we want, stall on actually delivering it, in this case on any way to hold them to a non-nukes promise by never giving an inch unless they take it back a day or three later, meanwhile, ginning up sides and side issues and manipulating the other side into delivering in advance on those demands in the foolish belief that the final deal will then be possible.
Trump's negotiators are falling the same or falling into the same old trap as Carter and Barack Obama.
They are telling him the blockade will force the regime to bend. Sorry, Iran's leaders are perfectly willing to let the people suffer. Heck, they proved in January that they'll slaughter civilians in the street.
The elites keep on living the high life just as they do in impoverished North Korea.
A sign Trump is getting terrible advice is his assertion Monday night that if we spend another two to three weeks bombing, they'll have nothing left whatsoever, but then you won't leave the strait open for months.
How is that?
And why is just reopening the strait not a legitimate military aim to take away the regime's leverage? Why is this the Stone Ages or bust?
We the American people deserve deserve an explanation.
We flattened Iran's Air Force and sunk its navy. Our forces have since then repeatedly shown they can take out any Iranian site that launches missiles or drones. The enemy is playing diplomatic rope-a-dope with you, Mr. President.
Quit these fake talks, open up the strait, and leave them to rot.
Um, what are you really trying to say here?
No, I mean it was that was basically my thoughts yesterday.
When you and and when they >> Do the deed.
>> And when they called it the attack unjustified on the helicopter, you know, that and then proportional response, I went, "What the hell's going on?"
>> response?
No.
We tower over them with our forces and our ability.
Get the job done. Complete the mission.
>> He's losing >> Well, this is the problem.
>> losing his absolute conservative base and for what?
>> Well, because if you're if you're worried about the middle for November, >> They don't >> Well, now you're losing your base.
>> Yeah.
>> On this issue.
>> Yep.
>> That's a problem.
Your base wants the confidence that Iran is going to be taken care of because quite frankly, after we bombed their nuclear site and then after we bombed the leadership of Iran and took out the Ayatollah, it told me that my confidence in him as commander-in-chief was spot-on.
Now, that confidence is waning.
I I don't want that to happen.
This is critical that we finish the job because if we don't take care of Iran now, it'll never be done. It will never be done.
With the exception of a Marco Rubio getting into office and becoming president one day.
Maybe.
>> Yeah, and that's a that that's a maybe.
>> Yeah. So, I don't you know, those I >> But you're but >> get it done.
>> But he's losing he's losing confidence and yesterday to me was the ultimate cuz when I saw and then later on is when I saw the the the the the New York Post editorial and it's like, "Whoa."
Um Wall Street Journal editorial page also hit him extremely hard as did National Review.
Now, he criticizes all of those uh uh publications publications at times, but the fact is they have supported him they've supported him through Russia collusion on the legal basis of what the Democrats were doing and finding out the truth and they supported him on the Iran war. There are other places they've disagreed with him like just like we do, but they're the ones that have truly supported him on the critical issues of his presidency and this is another one where they've supported him on it and nobody has any idea and you go on social media, you look at the typical, you know, Trump cheerleading influencers that cheerlead everything that he does.
There's no cheerleading over this at all. None. Zero. It doesn't exist. He is losing his base, his conservative base in the Republican Party over this.
>> Yeah.
Yeah.
And so, the question is again, can you keep eroding away the support politically?
Because ultimately, what does that mean?
Are you not going to complete the mission?
Cuz if the support is gone and it cost you the election at the midterm, your party, then then what?
You have several weeks between election day and the time that the new Congress is seated.
>> Well, >> the to get things done. I mean, there are things he can do beyond that, but funding is going to dry up if Democrats have any say so about it.
>> You know, and and things got so bizarre I asked you, I said, is this just is this just role playing? I mean, is this just good cop, bad cop? I mean, you know, what because none of this makes any type of sense. He is confusing his own base going, "What's he doing? What's the purpose of doing this? We all know Iran's lying."
Everyone knows Iran's lying.
>> And it's like everybody knows Iran is lying and the president's out there pretending that they're not.
>> Well, and and this again, repeating that we're close to a deal?
>> Yeah, 38 times.
They counted. The New York Post counted.
It was like, "What is this >> It's not even crying wolf anymore.
>> No.
>> So, that's the problem.
Politically now, you're doing more damage than going in and finishing the mission, I believe.
>> Same with Yeah, I agree with you.
>> Because your base now is involved, and you've lost your base on this. You're quickly losing them if you haven't lost most of them already.
I want the GOP to win in November because I want him to be able to finish his agenda.
But something has to be done about Iran.
And repeating that, "Oh, we're talking.
We're talking. Hey, we're talking. We're close. We're close. Best deal ever."
is not getting it.
Do the mission. Do the deed. And and quite frankly, two things have to happen.
We have to have their uranium, and the regime has to be gone.
>> Well, when what what you see is though again the president, "We're very, very, very close. Let me attack Israel." And then they come back and attack the president cuz they know it makes him look foolish, and he loses credibility within his own country. Is the White House that stupid where they don't see that?
>> Yeah.
>> And so stop blaming the New York Post.
Stop blaming his advisers. He's commander-in-chief. It's his job.
Buck stops there.
>> He makes the call.
>> Yeah.
And and meanwhile, we're talking ballrooms and rallies and Knicks games. Who the hell cares?
>> No, this this is critical that you get this done.
>> Yeah.
>> If we don't, it won't happen in our lifetime.
>> We are Red Eye Radio.
>> We'll be right back with more Red Eye Radio with Eric Harley and Gary McNamara.
>> [music] [music] >> We are Red Eye Radio and he's our co-host and I'm Gary McNamara.
So, the uh the big story of the night though is uh Platter gets almost 73% of the Democrats' votes in Maine.
So, if you thought for any second that all of this publicity would lessen the enthusiasm of Democrats to vote for a communist {slash} not see, somebody who's just torn it in between being Hitler or Stalin, just can't figure out which one he wants to be, the enthusiasm is there and it's there big time.
It's where the Democratic Party is.
>> Look, I mean, you're Look, he in terms of numbers, crushed it.
>> Yeah?
>> With everything Remember, the media, the liberal activist media turned on him over the last couple of weeks, basically going into the home stretch [music] here. And everyone was wondering, oh, could there be a protest vote or could he even drop out or something?
Nope. With these numbers, he has a clear mandate >> [music] >> given to him by the people of Maine.
>> This is Red Eye Radio on Westwood One.
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