Nifty Outlook: Expert Reveals What Can Trigger The Next Big Market Rally

[00:00:00]Yes, I think the earnings of eight banks by and large were disappointing except for ICICI Bank, but then what can a single bank do when many others from its stable are not pulling up their weight. So, what does that mean for the broader Nifty Ashish because the other engine of the market, which is IT, has showed no signs of consistent breakout.

[00:00:31]Financial services are not doing well.

[00:00:33]That pretty much means that about 50-55% of Nifty lies dormant if not negative.

[00:00:40]>> Yeah. So, as far as financials are concerned, I think as you rightly mentioned ICICI Bank was an outlier and markets are rewarding the outlier. So, clearly ICICI Bank is trading almost near its all-time high.

[00:00:51]Same is the case with some of the large NBFC companies. Say for example, Shriram Finance, which we have been you know, we have been mentioning as a topic in the entire NBFC space because of the kind of MUFG acquisition which has happened. The cost of borrowing has come down significantly and very strong growth coming in the CV segment. So, all these three catalysts are resulting in into a very strong re-rating of Shriram Finance and also the discount with its peers with its peers is also resulting into a good re-rating happening into into the stock.

[00:01:24]Even Bajaj Finance for that matter after a very very long time we have we have seen some good buying interest coming into into that that space. So, maybe selectively some of the NBFC companies are looking quite promising. Now, coming to IT. So, IT has been a laggard for almost a year, but if you look at last 10-12 trading sessions, we have seen some recovery. Is this recovery more fundamental in nature or more to do with what is happening to Bloomberg? You we we track one index called as Bloomberg AI Value Chain Index, which is a combination of many semiconductor data center and AI companies in in the world and and that index has seen a very sharp correction. So, now a lot of a lot of, you know, market participants are believing that AI entity trade is playing out and that's how the IT companies have seen some pullback. But, we believe it's more of a pullback rally or maybe a throwback rally which has happened rather than a structural, you know, structural trend. So, definitely one can't rely on AI [snorts] on on IT companies for for the market to rally.

[00:02:29]So, that's the reason our belief is that broader Nifty index is going to is is kind of kind of a sideways trend and the only savior could be banks and NBFC companies, but since banks have also not performed well, so maybe some consolidation, but our sense is the the one who is going to take lead is going to be the large private bank at some point of time and then only the index is going to cross this 24,500 resistance zone.

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