The Next Energy Shock Is Here !?!

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:10]We go live and there we go. All righty.

[00:00:14]Welcome everybody.

[00:00:16]Howdy. Welcome. Tell us show my morning magnificent monsters. Grab I don't know what color can this would be. Pink, black, blue, all the above.

[00:00:29]Skip the coffee, grab a can, but don't try to soo yourself by looking at crude oil and whispering, "Well, at least Brent is only around 100 bucks." I mean, you know, oil prices not really comforting these days.

[00:00:47]Um, you know, it's kind of the financial equivalent of saying, "Good news, the kitchen's not on fire, but uh, don't go in the living room." I mean, the living room might be doing an impression of the surface of the sun, you know, but kitchen's fine. I mean, that's kind of the way market prices have been lately, especially in the energy sector.

[00:01:11]And according to JP Morgan's commodity team, the energy shock is no longer just an oil story. This is a fuel story.

[00:01:23]as in crude is just a raw ingredient.

[00:01:28]Bernie Sanders there burning everything down saying that you know oil gasoline was you know when back in March when oil was 105 gas was 350 in average across the country and now here in May oil is 105 and now the average is 460 across the country. I mean, it's just fundamentally not understanding how distillates work.

[00:01:59]But consumers don't buy crude, right? We don't buy oil directly.

[00:02:06]Airlines don't open up the tank and dump in a barrel of Brent in their Boeing.

[00:02:14]Truckers don't fill up an 18-wheeler with West Texas Intermediate.

[00:02:21]You and I don't pull up to the pump and ask for one barrel of geopolitical attention, please.

[00:02:29]We buy gasoline. We buy diesel. We buy jet fuel.

[00:02:34]And that's where the pain is migrating right now. It's trickling through. This has lasted long enough to actually come down the pump prices and it matters right now because the market may be entering the next phase of the energy shock.

[00:02:52]The winners and the losers are not where lazy investors are looking. If crude holds near 100 while refiners and their refined fuels keep exploding in prices, the trade is not simply buy oil. The trade is understand who can turn crude into the scarce fuel that everybody desperately needs and make some money on it. Who is forced to pay whatever the refinery casino demands?

[00:03:20]Refiners like MPC, VLOO, PSX, DINO, PBF, they can benefit when the crack spreads widen.

[00:03:33]back. You can look at crack, c product logistics names like MPLX, EPD, ET, KMI, they can benefit by moving barrels through the stress system. While airlines like A and U, LUV, JBLU, maybe even a little touch of DAL, even though they own their own refinery, they're staring at jet fuel prices like somebody just kicked open the door to the the cockpit with a bill for dinner.

[00:04:13]I mean the mental model today called the barrel bottleneck.

[00:04:20]Stop asking only about where is oil prices and where they're going next.

[00:04:28]Think about which molecules are trapped, which companies can rearrange them, who can buy them at any price, who has them to sell at any price. JP Morgan's argument here is brutally simple. The crude market absorbed the first blast from the Iran war. The straight of Hermos disruption.

[00:04:52]But the system can't magically replace lost barrels, lost refinery runs, lost capacity taken offline, lost refined product exports.

[00:05:04]It didn't have extra capacity.

[00:05:07]the shock is being pushed down the barrel, so to speak, into the products that people actually buy.

[00:05:15]And then when we actually buy the the product, you know, we're talking about inuse products like distillates, but then those prices trickle through everything cuz there's nothing you buy that doesn't get moved with diesel probably.

[00:05:33]I mean, every truck out there on the road pretty much runs on it till the Teslas start really rolling off the line.

[00:05:43]The source article says that refiners across Asia and Europe have been cutting runs by 2.1 million barrels per day. In March, 3.8 million barrels per day.

[00:05:57]And in April, on top of that, Middle East has lost an estimated 4.7 million barrels per day of refined product exports.

[00:06:09]That's not a rounding error.

[00:06:12]That's a global fuel system looking at the calendar and saying, "I need a personal day. Maybe uh my tank's running a little empty." And here's the part that makes this different from a normal oil panic. Crude prices rose around 40% from January through April. Painful, sure, but refined products in Asia rose 60 and in some places 120%.

[00:06:45]Products are repricing faster than crude because the bottleneck isn't oil.

[00:06:53]It's finding the usable fuel that can go in the tanks, the refined oil, the gasoline, the diesel, the jet fuel.

[00:07:03]And this is where we talk about crack spreads, which sounds like something Wall Street intern would have invented after three Red Bulls and a divorce, but it's actually quite simple. A crack spread is the difference between the price of crude and the value of the refined products made from it.

[00:07:20]It's basically the market screaming at refiners, make this, not that. You know, you got to have a balance. And different oil around the world makes different stuff in different proportions.

[00:07:36]So, right now, the scream is actually coming from jet fuel.

[00:07:40]Jet fuel prices have nearly doubled across Asia, Europe, and the United States.

[00:07:45]Jet cracks are reportedly sitting at an absurd $80 to $100 per barrel over the crude price.

[00:07:57]And that's the market wearing a neon sign that says got to make jet fuel. That's what we're short on. We need jet fuel. But refineries aren't magic cauldrons, right? We can't just, you know, flip a switch and more jet fuel pops out.

[00:08:14]You can't toss in one barrel of crude and chant, "Give me some shareholder value. Give me some shareholder value."

[00:08:21]And everything that comes out is jet fuel. That's not the way it works.

[00:08:26]Barrel crude is a chemical menu slurry. Gasoline's lighter. Diesel's heavier. Jet fuel sits in the middle.

[00:08:35]Refiners can adjust output, but only so much.

[00:08:39]The article that I was looking at says that most refiners can only shift about maybe two up to about 5% of the total output between jet and diesel and gas.

[00:08:52]So when jet fuel demands more molecules, diesel gets shoved out, pushed down. And that matters because diesel is the lifeblood of the physical economy. trucks, ships, rails, farms, mines, construction equipment.

[00:09:08]Diesel's pretty much everywhere. If diesel tightens because refiners are chasing jet margins, jet fuel margins, then freight costs, diesel prices are going to go up even more than they already have. That takes fuel costs higher, takes mining costs higher. Suddenly, the inflation monster is wearing a brand new t-shirt out there beating the drum.

[00:09:43]Gasoline is not safe either. Here, the source article says that US refiners lifted jet fuel yields by about 2%.

[00:09:50]But gasoline yields fell by 2%.

[00:09:53]So, gasoline production is also suffering.

[00:09:57]Now, gasoline production dropping by 340,000 barrels per day from a year ago levels. And naturally, because the market enjoys this comedy, this is happening right in front of this summer driving season. Nothing says American summer like grilling burgers, watching fireworks, and putting your last tank of gas on a payment plan.

[00:10:26]JP Morgan says $5 gasoline is probably realistic. It's not really something to laugh off. Yahoo Finance covering the same noted that gasoline around 455 per gallon right now.

[00:10:50]That means Americans already spent 23.9 billion more on gasoline this year than they did a year ago.

[00:11:03]That's a giant tax. That's about $23.3 million every hour.

[00:11:10]Every hour. Congratulations. The economy has created a subscription service called Geopolitical Premium. And everybody with a commute is automatically enrolled. Ching. Now, let's talk about stocks because this this is getting dismal, right? This is, you know, this kind of pain. This is not a portfolio strategy. Pain is just what happens when you own the wrong side of the bottleneck or maybe you don't own any exposure and you just have to pay the tax. So, we've got the molecule masters here, the refiners with access to crude, complex assets, and the ability to capture big crack spreads.

[00:11:47]First up, MPC Marathon Petroleum. It's the clean example here. Reuters reported that Marathon beat first quarter estimates, added $5 billion to its buyback authorization, and had refining and marketing margins of 17.74 per barrel.

[00:12:09]It's up 32.6% year-over-year.

[00:12:12]The company also brought on turned it on a jet flexibility project at Garyville, Louisiana, which is exactly the kind of asset this market rewards. When the world is short of jet fuel being able to tilt output toward jet fuel, it's not a feature. That's a money printer right there.

[00:12:37]Then there's Valero, another pure refining heavyweight with Gulf Gulf Coast exposure and export leverage.

[00:12:46]Philips 66 PSX.

[00:12:48]They bring refining midstream and chemicals and complexity. And though it's not as a pure refiner as Valero, then you have HF Sinclair, Dino, the dinosaur that just keeps holding on.

[00:13:04]PBF Energy, PBF is the ticker. They're more cyclical and potentially more volatile in the space, which means they can move hard in either direction, up or down.

[00:13:17]These are not windows and orphans type stocks. These are check the crack spread before the breakfast type stocks.

[00:13:24]So the second group is the toll collectors. In a fuel shortage, moving and storing product becomes profitable. And that points to mid-stream names like NPLX, which is tied to Marathon System, plus Enterprise Product Partners, EPD, Energy Transfer, ET, and of course, Kinder Morgan, KMI.

[00:13:45]These are not your usual sexy names in the energy market.

[00:13:52]their pipelines, their terminals, their infrastructure that make the energy system less theoretical and more.

[00:13:59]Can we get the fuel to the airport by Tuesday?

[00:14:04]Boring, but beautiful when the world's logistic map is actually kind of on fire. The third group here, the victims of the fuel. The airlines are kind of standing directly under a falling piano.

[00:14:18]Reuters reported that US passenger airlines spent over five billion dollars extra on jet fuel in March.

[00:14:30]That's 56% more than February.

[00:14:34]Fuel can be up to a quarter of an airline operating expense.

[00:14:40]Skip report. American Airlines cut 2026 profit outlook because high fuel could add another four billion in expenses. This is not headwinds. This is kind of the genine pointed backwards on the plane.

[00:14:56]So for AAL, UA, LUV, JBLU, the question becomes who has pricing power, who has balance sheet strength, and who has the weakest seat at the table? higher fairs can help until the consumer looks at a $900 domestic ticket and decides that um grandma can see baby the baby over FaceTime instead of in person. And then come the transport and freight names. FedEx, FDX, UPS, Stickers, UPS, JB Hunts, JBHT, and even premium trucking names like Old Dominion, ODFL can face some margin pressures if diesel keeps rising, especially faster than they can pass it through to the customers. You know, we write these freight contracts and sure there's fuel search charge clauses, but were they good enough or was this an event that we didn't foresee?

[00:16:00]You know, some of those have fuel search charge clauses in the contracts. Some of them have pricing power, but nobody escapes physics.

[00:16:10]The barrel of oil doesn't care about your adjusted EBITDA, you know, earnings before interest in taxes and blah blah blah.

[00:16:21]The regional angle here matters too. RBN Energy points out that the West Coast Pad 5 is especially vulnerable because California has lost conventional refining capacity.

[00:16:34]Lost as in they regulated it out of business and it depends on more imports for gasoline and jet fuel. RBN says that PAD five production and the imports have recently topped about 500,000 barrels a day on a four-week average in California has lost roughly 575,000 barrels per day of refining capacity since 2020. Half a million barrels a day they can't refine now because they turned it off and outlawed it.

[00:17:08]Hey, the green new world out there, right? The East Coast is also a little bit structurally short on gasoline.

[00:17:17]We're leaning heavily on the Gulf Coast and their pipelines to get this stuff where it needs to be.

[00:17:24]We have a problem like we did in Tulsa yesterday. Things could get a little sketchy.

[00:17:30]So, here's the contrarian warning.

[00:17:32]Refiners are not risk-free heroes riding chrome stallions through the refinery sunset. If the war deescalates, if demand destruction crushes past the tipping point, if politicians intervene aggressively, or if the crack spreads compress, these stocks can all reverse pretty violently.

[00:17:57]Refining is cyclical.

[00:18:00]The same crack spread that gives you an absolute slap in the face can go the other way.

[00:18:10]But the broader lesson here is the bigger one bigger than just one trade. Energy stocks don't always show up where the cable news story tells you to look. Sometimes crude stops being the star of the horror movie and the sequel is really about diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel. That's what down the barrel means. The pain migrates from the raw commodities into the bottleneck products. So, here's the checklist.

[00:18:41]Watch jet crack spreads. Watch diesel crack spreads. Watch refinery utilization. Watch US product exports.

[00:18:50]Watch gasoline inventories before Memorial Day. If that starts getting thin, chaos is going to ensue as we reach the summer driving season.

[00:19:00]Which watch out which airlines are able to pass costs along and which ones are going to have to start cutting routes like they're trimming bonsai trees with a chainsaw. And more importantly, separate the companies that own the bottleneck from the companies that pay the bottleneck.

[00:19:17]That's the trade. My micum masters, maybe morning monsters, don't be fuel victims.

[00:19:26]So drink your monster. Respect the crack spread. Don't let a calmish or a calming down crude chart lull you into a nap.

[00:19:35]The oil shock hasn't disappeared.

[00:19:38]It's just moving downstream.

[00:19:41]Movement from the midstream into the final pump prices.

[00:19:46]Now it's starting to charge five bucks at the door as an entry price.

[00:19:52]This helps you see this market a little bit cleaner, clearer.

[00:19:56]Let me know in the comments. Let me know in the chat right there. Let me know you like this kind of content. Trying to dig up stuff that you find beneficial, helpful. I've got a interesting graphic that I can show here, too.

[00:20:12]Let me get that pulled up over here and share the screen.

[00:20:18]for everybody.

[00:20:22]Look at the Look at this one right here.

[00:20:25]Let me make it a little bigger.

[00:20:29]Check that out. So, light crude. Let's take West Texas Intermediate and Brent.

[00:20:35]This is kind of the crack spread here.

[00:20:38]We got 3% of gases. That's when we we take this barrel of oil and we cook it in a refinery. We get 3% of gas is like natural gas and other propane and you know all the all the anes that come out of there and then we get gasoline, we get jet fuel, we get diesel fuel and we get other stuff like paraffin and liquid paraffin, kerosene. You get um you petroleum jelly stuff like that comes out the the bottom here. the heavier stuff a lot. You know, funny enough, I used to work for I we used to have a client, I guess that's the better way to say it. We used to have a client that I had to go heat up train cars full of an oil product from pins oil that they would pump it out into from train cars into tractor trailers and take it over to a seat belt manufacturing plant. So that that would it was a very thick heavy oil and that was taken to that seat belt manufacturer. They did some stuff to it and turned it into seat belts. Um, and that was a a thick, heavy oil product.

[00:21:57]So, that was interesting. And that came from the Pins Oil refinery from down in Louisiana, and it would ship up here to Knoxville. We would offload it from the train car into the tractor trailer here in Knoxville. And then they would ship it over to I think it was Greensboro, South Carolina, where the seat belt manufacturing plant was.

[00:22:18]And they would, I guess, extrude it out in the fine fibers and then weave it into seab belts. Kind of fascinating, right? Anyway, then you have your medium stuff like the stuff in the Middle East is medium and you got some heavy stuff like West Canadian Select. So, you can't just switch out West Texas Intermediate for the heavy Canadian stuff. And these two aren't necessarily compatible here.

[00:22:48]You know, like everybody acts like you just get oil from wherever. It's all different and it produces different stuff.

[00:22:57]You see the gasoline content of the stuff from Canada much lower than the gasoline content of the stuff from Texas right there.

[00:23:09]So hopefully that was helpful on the spreads. I guess before we talk talk trades, all trading involves a substantial risk of loss and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results else. This presentation is intended to beformational educational fund entertaining, not a recommendation to be buying or selling any financial instrument. So be careful when you trade stocks, options, bonds, forex, futures, cryptos, treasuries. 90% of people lose money when they do that if you do it naively. So be careful out there. You probably lose money. I'm perma cautious.

[00:23:36]I don't like to lose money. So I'm very careful about what trades I want to take. You should be too if you really want to, you know, I mean, the first the whole whole first point to stay in this game, you got to learn how to survive.

[00:23:51]So, you need somebody to tell you what to do. It's not me. There's people you can hire for that. Look at the S&P.

[00:24:00]We just keep cranking alltime highs.

[00:24:02]This is We're getting quite crazy.

[00:24:08]Quite crazy.

[00:24:11]Maybe I mean opening just a tad off the highs here this morning. Almost tagged that 7450 high up there yesterday.

[00:24:21]Might be another couple days to reach it.

[00:24:25]ES just craziness. I mean, hey, doing a pullback is what's happening here overnight.

[00:24:34]This is about 2 p.m. 1 2 p.m. yesterday.

[00:24:37]We started bleeding off a little bit.

[00:24:39]pulled off after the market closed and we rallied into the market closed just a little bit and then bled off and we've been bleeding off a little bit here.

[00:24:52]Zoom out just a little bit.

[00:24:56]We're just back where we were on the 7th few days ago. I guess we were here yesterday, too.

[00:25:08]absolute craziness.

[00:25:11]So, we're just kind of back testing a little bit.

[00:25:14]Sitting on the 30 minute road map line.

[00:25:16]Hadn't really tested that since back here on the 4th, May the 4th.

[00:25:24]So, if this holds, probably going higher. If it folds, we'll probably come down here and test the hourly, which it was the fourth when we last tested the hourly also. that we'd be back down around 7350 on the futures. Now, look at the cash index. It's a little spottier. We haven't actually been down to the hourly since all the way back on April 7th.

[00:25:48]Holy pistachios.

[00:25:53]That's a long time.

[00:25:58]Last time we were here, May the 4th on the 15 minute, the 30 minute.

[00:26:06]That goes all the way back to April 7th.

[00:26:11]This has been a crazy freaking rally.

[00:26:14]We don't typically hang out this far away from the road mapap line for this long. When this thing finally corrects, it's probably going to be nasty.

[00:26:28]But be careful out there.

[00:26:31]That's my cautious. That's my caution.

[00:26:33]My cautious my cautious nature coming through.

[00:26:37]This thing's going to turn at some point. It's going to get ugly.

[00:26:42]This is NASDAQ cash coming off the top a little bit. All kind of all the same things that we said about S&P still coming true here. We can potentially take this on up to 40,000 area. Was talking about that yesterday.

[00:27:01]Look at this. If we just match the dot thing. I mean, look, this looks a lot like what we've been doing, right? This rip right here. We just keep the party going.

[00:27:13]Match the dot bubble. Everybody says it's not a I hear so many people talking about it. Not a bubble.

[00:27:20]Okay, we'll see.

[00:27:24]Sure does feel a lot like this.

[00:27:28]I hear people just need to tell everybody, get in the stock market right now. Everybody's going to be a genius. We're all going to be rich.

[00:27:37]Need to get fully invested. Got to catch all this once we top.

[00:27:45]Watch out for complacency.

[00:27:48]And then if we start pulling back further, watch out for the anxiety and the denial and the panic and the capitulation and the anger.

[00:27:57]These things turn quickly, man. Look at this chart.

[00:28:04]It was up up up.

[00:28:07]Couldn't go wrong. Couldn't go wrong.

[00:28:08]Couldn't go wrong. And then we topped and yikes.

[00:28:13]But look at what else it's doing.

[00:28:17]Get all the keys. Look at that. Up, up, up, up, up, up, up. Haven't broken yet.

[00:28:26]This one, too. Look at this. Up, up, up, up, up. Keep going up.

[00:28:32]We're in the 450 target. Be careful.

[00:28:35]Could going up to 700, but this is getting to be the top.

[00:28:39]We're in the topping zone.

[00:28:42]Easy money played out.

[00:28:46]Next part gets hard. Be careful.

[00:28:51]This one just being a monster. Keeps going higher.

[00:28:58]All this stuff's going to It's not going to end well.

[00:29:04]Look at that.

[00:29:06]Crazy freaking moves.

[00:29:13]stuff all reminds me of a time long long ago saw crazy freaking moves.

[00:29:21]Some of the charts don't exist anymore.

[00:29:27]Let's go back here.

[00:29:33]Look at this.

[00:29:36]Crazy freaking moves until we topped.

[00:29:55]Now price was never actually this low.

[00:29:57]We split this thing since then.

[00:30:00]doing 100% moves just a couple months.

[00:30:09]I mean, absolute insane kind of stuff here.

[00:30:15]Like, well, you don't understand. This is going to run the world.

[00:30:19]Yeah.

[00:30:23]300% from 98 to 2000. Two years. 300%.

[00:30:31]But then what happened?

[00:30:36]That looked so good.

[00:30:44]66% pullback.

[00:30:47]It lasted and even deeper. Ouch.

[00:30:59]So really from the high up here to low down here 75% down. Took a while.

[00:31:10]That took almost 10 years to go from the high to the low.

[00:31:19]Maybe AI flushes out faster, but maybe it doesn't.

[00:31:25]What would happen if Microsoft did a 75% pullback from here?

[00:31:29]We've already kind of looked made a similar top.

[00:31:38]See it back down at 136.

[00:31:43]Still got a long way to go from where we are.

[00:31:47]Yikes.

[00:31:50]What if SNDK did a 75% pullback?

[00:31:59]That one's not as bad, right? I mean, not as bad. Going from 1,400 down to 300.

[00:32:09]I can see it coming all the way down here.

[00:32:12]Yikes.

[00:32:16]Not saying it's going to pop today.

[00:32:20]Probably not even next week.

[00:32:23]These things are elevated though.

[00:32:26]Things are running hot.

[00:32:30]It's been running a lot crazy.

[00:32:35]A lot crazy.

[00:32:37]So, be careful.

[00:32:39]Man, yesterday that hung right on the right on the gamma. Pull it over to today. Pull it over to today.

[00:32:52]Come back and look at the options market here in a little bit. We got to give it time to cook.

[00:33:04]Bring that over. Bring that over.

[00:33:09]So all these things can reverse.

[00:33:15]But this could also be done here. So watching these futures charts.

[00:33:26]ENQ likely to test that 30 minute.

[00:33:31]ES already tested in the 30 minute.

[00:33:36]Russell already pushed through the 30 minutes.

[00:33:41]Test in the one hour.

[00:33:46]Now, if we decide to go down and test the 4 hour, that's going to be a retrace back down around 270 on Russell.

[00:33:54]Haven't tested that 4 hour since back here in April 7th.

[00:34:02]That was kind of a monster bottom we made late May, late March, and we've been on a tear.

[00:34:09]Oil. This is where things get more interesting to me.

[00:34:14]As I've been talking about, this is a bullish potential breakout setup for oil.

[00:34:21]If we can get through that high, that high, and that high, we're probably going on a big run to 150 a barrel oil.

[00:34:36]It's already in the chart.

[00:34:38]What causes it? You could speculate it's going to be something in the Middle East.

[00:34:44]But it's already in the chart that this is potentially about to rip out higher.

[00:34:50]Gold holding the line.

[00:34:56]That's the next move I expect to happen.

[00:35:02]We get above 5,000.

[00:35:06]Change the tune.

[00:35:10]That right there, that low is a key low.

[00:35:15]We spike this up through it changes the whole structure pattern off of this low back here in March and sets us up for going higher on gold. But right now, while we're sitting right here, down is the potential. Lower low is likely where we're going lower than this low we made back in March on gold.

[00:35:40]Need to finish this baby up.

[00:35:43]Bitcoin just glued to this road map line right now.

[00:35:50]Hadn't been able to pull away. Hadn't been able to break out. May result in a bigger retrace before we can push on up through.

[00:36:01]Either's possible. We could just sit here a few days and then pop. We could retrace and then pop.

[00:36:10]We could just, you know, decide we're done here and pop.

[00:36:16]Or if we come down here and we don't hold it, we could just go on down into the abyss. Nothing's clear at the point at this moment.

[00:36:25]The rally from here to the road map was clear. That was I saw that as likely to occur.

[00:36:35]We're in the time frame.

[00:36:38]May June is when I expected to get up in this vicinity.

[00:36:42]The more ideal target was right up here, just a little bit higher.

[00:36:49]But the next thing I predicted that was going to occur is a visit right down here.

[00:36:57]So, be careful. I've been sitting on the I've talked about this ad nauseium over and over.

[00:37:05]posted the charts, talked about it on the channel here and just in case maybe you're new here or you haven't been around. I mean here this was when it was making that low to the path May June is when I was saying we might top here and then sometime in October probably down to 30 to 50k and then make a bottom and go higher again.

[00:37:36]There you go. That's kind of the path.

[00:37:38]Been sitting on this for a while.

[00:37:45]Ethereum just not doing the bullish stuff. We're not getting any kind of highs. This may just roll on off. Be careful. Dollar looking spicy today.

[00:37:57]Come on. Bounce. If we can get above this pink zone, it's an indication we're going back to the highs. If we break out of the highs, probably going up to 102, we hit 102, we start the dollar short squeeze.

[00:38:14]Let's rise up through here. Resistance get through here. Resistance get through here and kick off the short squeeze that can cause this thing to go to 120 to 130 ultimately.

[00:38:35]Be careful. Shorten the dollar. I'm long dollar right now. Talked about that prior episodes.

[00:38:43]ENKD.

[00:38:45]It's going to extend on up, but watch out for retrace. This is do a retrace after that bounce. We've hit extensions.

[00:38:52]May come back back test the breakout here.

[00:38:56]Struggle right there for like two weeks and then popped both these targets.

[00:39:05]If we're going on up, may look like that. Could just pop on up here. That's another significant target before we may retrace.

[00:39:15]Can it keep going? Sure, it can keep going. The bigger target up here around 75,000, but I would be very careful count on that. Now, this is my global liquidity indicator. Why would I watch the Nike?

[00:39:30]The only thing correlated to the S&P performance over the last like 100 years, 98% correlated, is global liquidity. How do you figure out global liquidity? I watch a proxy such as ENKD.

[00:39:45]This is futures right here for the Nike Japanese stock market. People borrow money in yen and go buy risk on assets like the S&P.

[00:39:58]When things are hot here, the money's flowing. When things are not hot, when they're pulling back here, it tends to correlate with pullbacks in the S&P, NASDAQ, Bitcoin, other risk on type assets.

[00:40:18]Looking at Apple popping up almost to that 295 targets. Came up just a penny shy two days ago on Friday and looking for that to pop that actual target.

[00:40:33]So that's almost played out at this point. Could it go on up to 302? Sure.

[00:40:38]Amazon played out. Watch out for the retrace.

[00:40:42]Back test the breakout. That's the next play.

[00:40:47]If we don't hold that return to the road mapap line would be the next play.

[00:40:52]If we do hold it upside potential 279 307 Google same kind of thing happening here potentially played out 405.

[00:41:07]Watch out for the retrace here.

[00:41:10]Retest the breakout 350.

[00:41:12]We don't hold it. Could come back to the road map line down around 300 again. Big move for Google.

[00:41:21]Meta still hunting for that 580 test.

[00:41:25]Microsoft still hunting for that lower low than we made last year.

[00:41:31]I just expect it to happen before we can actually get upside going. And this may not stay there. I mean, I just expect that to happen and then tell us what's happening next. If we don't bounce here, then lower low. If we do bounce here, go back to the highs. Nvidia tagging the targets. Can we reach on up to the next one up around 228?

[00:41:56]Hopefully.

[00:41:58]Salah pushing on higher. Tesla getting that continuation. So, the target at this point 75% likely we're going to come up here 57.

[00:42:16]I'm set the alert 517. Come on.

[00:42:29]517 even message.

[00:42:42]I have a long exposure to Tesla.

[00:42:49]It's probably my biggest exposure right now. Netflix If we can hold on to this pink zone, maybe we can bounce back up to the road map line or our high. Big gap down we left right there and then this target up here. But if we push on below this, probably going to come down to the 50 to 60 zone on Netflix.

[00:43:20]All right, I got pull gainers. things moving $2 more up in the pre-market.

[00:43:24]Decliners, things moving down $2 more in the pre-market and see what happens.

[00:43:31]Now, there were a few gainers, stuff like Zebra making a nice little pop, MDB, but the decliners list was much bigger.

[00:43:45]Careful. This is coming into resistance on MDB.

[00:43:50]See limited.

[00:43:53]We rejected that 618. Pulling back.

[00:43:57]This may need a 618 retrace before we can go higher again.

[00:44:01]Got down to a 50%.

[00:44:12]Can we push into that 618 right there at 67?

[00:44:22]If we spike down on C and then get a nice reversal back up through the road map line, this thing's probably coming back up to a new high.

[00:44:39]We have the makings for it now if we break out.

[00:44:43]But it would look even better if we pushed just a little bit lower. More power to it. More more oomph. But this has got the setup that we can come right up in here.

[00:44:54]And number Holy Pistachios.

[00:45:03]Lowe's was popping. Now we're dropping.

[00:45:07]People can't afford to spend on houses and appliances.

[00:45:14]And this is a warning sign that things are turning a little bit sour here.

[00:45:26]Costco 75% want to be able to get that 18 118.

[00:45:35]RVI keeps being pretty hot. Pulling back a little bit though.

[00:45:41]Nothing there. Autodesk still hunting for the bottom. Looks like started up here. We made a move down. We made a retrace. And if we finish this up, we're probably going to dive down here around 140.

[00:45:58]MPC, one of the ones I was talking about, looking pretty good.

[00:46:07]LNG back to the for a road map bounce. Can we hold on to it right here and bounce?

[00:46:16]Vanic Oil Refiners play the crack spread.

[00:46:22]If you think it's going higher, be careful. It can turn on you.

[00:46:27]Bang.

[00:46:29]Diamond back. See, that wasn't one I really talked about there. Yellow.

[00:46:35]This looks like it needs to retrace more.

[00:46:38]APC was there. CVX now almost to the road map line. XOM almost to the road map line.

[00:46:50]Now look at that thing go.

[00:46:54]Energy transfer. This is just a money maker right here.

[00:47:00]Maybe missed your opportunity to pick it up cheaper.

[00:47:07]Can't lie. This is a long longterm grind higher here.

[00:47:14]EPD.

[00:47:18]And we can see these topping out a little bit. So be careful as we get into some clarity on the clarity act.

[00:47:29]This thing might bust out and go higher.

[00:47:30]If we get up through the 150 area, I can definitely see this popping on up higher.

[00:47:38]This shallow retrace may have been all all she wrote.

[00:47:44]Maybe heading up to 414 next.

[00:47:54]Compass Minerals. Mm.

[00:47:58]Looks pretty bad there.

[00:48:01]Now keeps grinding lower. ASTN keeps grinding lower.

[00:48:09]Okay. Korea EWY. What are we down today?

[00:48:13]Just a little bit. This could be topping out. Be careful.

[00:48:19]Probably get I'd probably stay off of the stuff that's very lofty right now.

[00:48:25]ASML needs to retrace to the road map line. KAC same. Got a split coming up.

[00:48:31]Splits are not being bullish.

[00:48:34]Speaking of splits, you're lucky.

[00:48:36]Carvana being bearish.

[00:48:40]MU.

[00:48:43]That's gone straight freaking exponential with Intel and AMD and not going to end. Well, can it go higher? I mean, these can go 100% higher. They can double still. All these right here, STX, WDC, SNDK, their market caps aren't that big.

[00:49:07]They're not in the trillion dollar club.

[00:49:09]So these guys can all still go up quite a bit.

[00:49:17]Even AMD, look at that. Just at 735 billion. This could easily double up into the 1.4 trill. Uh yeah, 1.4 trillion.

[00:49:29]Make it a $900 stock. And then caution time. DXYZ. Be careful here.

[00:49:38]This is a kind of a meme stock for SpaceX.

[00:49:46]SMH, watch out for the retrace.

[00:49:51]Ew. Watch out for the retrace.

[00:49:58]Road map line. PKX.

[00:50:03]What a move triggering the entry 158 target but might retrace deeply before that digital ocean where the Apollo algorithm runs.

[00:50:16]Beautiful potential.

[00:50:19]I have a bigger target like this went just a little higher a little quite a bit faster than I was expecting. We may get a retrace and a pop or we could just go straight on up to the 500 target. So sometimes they do the stuff faster than I expect it to do.

[00:50:36]EDC STS watch out below TSM KBJ.

[00:50:48]A lot of stuff was pulling back in the pre-market.

[00:50:53]ARM, this thing did a breakout. If it can hold this breakout, we're coming up here probably at a 480.

[00:51:00]Dell played out at the moment.

[00:51:04]I was beating the drum that, you know, SMCI was getting a bunch of hype, but Dell was actually a bigger buyer of Nvidia GPUs and produced more servers.

[00:51:13]Now it's finally, the story's finally come around.

[00:51:17]That's the truth.

[00:51:20]SMCI on the other hand, looking like we're going down to below 10. That's split detrimental back there.

[00:51:29]just destroyed the momentum on the stock.

[00:51:32]People just don't the company management just doesn't get um I guess traditional thought you just manage the stock. You don't manage the options. But options are where that it's what wags the dog these days.

[00:51:50]ignoring the options market and the value in the options market and the community of options traders that you built around a stock. Just ignoring that is a fatal flaw when you do a split, especially a big split and you act you just completely destroy the options players.

[00:52:08]Bloom Energy potentially topping out here. MSTR into the into the road map line. This could come on up to 220 to 240, but be careful. It's probably topped out. coin.

[00:52:21]We might tag the road map line, but I think we have a date with this target down here around 80 85.

[00:52:30]A AOI grinding higher. TXN grinding higher. AU careful here.

[00:52:41]These gold stocks, if gold takes another swing lower, we're probably going to see this all retrace a bit. Three waves up into the 618. This one can take a lower low.

[00:52:56]Maybe setting that up for swing right down here potential or a breakout. Which one? I don't know.

[00:53:13]Rocket lab that hit the target. Be careful.

[00:53:19]GitLab by triggered the entry 176 target lit nothing. Pallidium this thing's just cooking right here. I look at this as one of the biggest opportunities out here this year, but we're just cooking and not moving.

[00:53:51]FCX 80 target up here.

[00:53:56]Similar target that break on higher 86 at the top end of it.

[00:54:10]Hey, today at 5 PM I have 30 minutes of awesome. If you want me to review a chart, you're sitting there going, you know, I really want to look at XYZ chart.

[00:54:19]5:00 PM Eastern. Come hang out. Come see what we can cook up here. BTI. This is a setup on my road map bounce. This is a trend pullback continuation pattern.

[00:54:33]Trend, pullback, continuation, pullback, continuation.

[00:54:37]The upside target here 6440 the statistics 34 trades 94% of the time this will get the target this is stat statistically significant 30 is a statistical population.

[00:54:58]So this tells you this is something you can count on this more often than the average. The average for this pattern is 75% of the time. This one blows that away. It outperforms.

[00:55:10]It has the historical trend pullback continuation pattern. It respects that pattern.

[00:55:16]And the profit factor here at 3.7. This is a rich one right here. Now, the pop up here takes away a little bit of the riskreward.

[00:55:29]Stop is always dollar below the low. So, down here at 54 be the stop. Dollar below that low.

[00:55:36]go off the low of the pattern that bounced off the road map line. Target is 64 with 75% well 94% likely on this ticker historically 65 above that.

[00:55:59]There you go.

[00:56:05]We can go for the full. We can go for the 1272. Do the calculations here. 93% of the time it hits the 1272. So you could go for 65 on this one.

[00:56:18]I usually go for 90% of the way, which is the 1.1448.

[00:56:24]Still good for hitting the 1272.

[00:56:32]Looks pretty spicy.

[00:56:35]All right, spy. Let's go look at some gamma charts. Try to figure out what the market might do today. Where we might go. Do we have a bigger Are we cooking a bigger pullback or we set for a bigger rally.

[00:56:49]See what the options market has to say.

[00:56:57]SP put put levels growing here. Got some put players coming back in.

[00:57:04]Haven't seen that in a while.

[00:57:08]Got some fear coming in the markets.

[00:57:13]Click on the heat map and we're touching into the red here.

[00:57:22]Got down to 7:30 up to 740. Go 741.

[00:57:28]I'm going to pick up these couple levels here too. 727 741 727 and pull this down to 741.

[00:57:45]That's the range I expect us to pull in hang out in today. And let's check out the that's just where the gamma bubble is.

[00:57:56]if you will.

[00:57:59]It's what I call the the big levels on the gamma chart, the bubble. Now, looking at the levels here, where might we kind of balance this thing out? Somewhere around the 736 area, that big spike in puts and a big spike in calls. Somewhere around 736, just right where we're hanging out.

[00:58:23]Imagine that.

[00:58:25]So, if we pin in here today, that's where we'll be. Move around much.

[00:58:31]This will probably change drastically.

[00:58:33]So, that's what we got on the spy. Let's go check out the cues.

[00:58:40]See what we got cooking here.

[00:58:44]Had a tight range yesterday on the cues.

[00:58:51]We'll put players coming in on the cues.

[00:58:55]The downside.

[00:58:58]Downside's cooking here.

[00:59:07]Getting some bigger numbers showing up in here. So, I'm going to go 6:15 down to 7 or I mean 615. 715 down to 700.

[00:59:18]715 down to 700.

[00:59:31]Probably just set the probably could just edit the box and 17 probably way way faster than me just typing it or trying to pull it down every day. and levels.

[00:59:53]Holy smoking pistachios on the pistachios today. There are crazy put players. Look at 11 billion dollars in puts. Are you fre Oh, that was yesterday.

[01:00:08]So that's skewing it. That was yesterday's. Today not that crazy.

[01:00:15]So, this is being this is being wild because of yesterday, but it's not actually that wild.

[01:00:35]Still big levels, but not that crazy.

[01:00:41]Still have more puts planned, but has 2.49 put gamma 1.04 call gamma that gives a little bit negative bias.

[01:00:57]This chart's not updating properly. So go somewhere around 710.

[01:01:06]a little bit up bias on the cues.

[01:01:14]So, be careful out there today. This looks unreliable.

[01:01:18]Jack and I will be on Market Master here in about an hour, 11:30. Links in the description if you want to come hang out with that. Otherwise, I'll be back here 5:00 PM Eastern. Come hang out. I'll do 30 minutes of awesome. Take your request for at least 30 minutes. And otherwise, I'll be back same bat time, same bat channel tomorrow. We'll do the same thing. Give a new story monologue.

[01:01:40]Check it out. Try to figure out where the charts are going for the day. And same thing we do every day. Bye for