Tesla Stock Takes a Beating as Sales Soar

Added: 2026-06-02

[00:00:01]As you've heard me say before, there are days that just defy analysis, but I'm going to do my best. My job today is to show you every single possible reason why Tesla could be down as much as it is today. Um, and uh, quite frankly, in my opinion, none of them make that much sense. But maybe you can make sense of them. That's my job is to is to share those with you so you can make sense. Anyway, Tesla Europe sales continue to go nuts. So, there's the positive side. We'll talk about that in detail. And then, yeah, maybe the fact that there's no news on robo taxi, no nothing happening with regard to the existing fleet that could be impacting share prices again. People could be getting um you know, disappointed again. And there's a lot of opportunity out there in the stock market to buy some of these upandcomers that are going to be reporting their sales and and earnings this week or some of the old guys like Nvidia who's up strongly this morning. So there's number one reason is maybe it's no news on roboaxi again. You'll remember that earlier this year I said if there isn't news on roboaxi if we don't continue to see improvements in the robo taxi fleet moving up and out you know more in in the existing cities more cities added etc etc um you know people are going to get worn out by the the robo taxexe narrative which I believe is the number one thing driving Tesla stock price and still is okay but here we go headline has Tesla sales falling ing 23%.

[00:01:36]That's what the headline said. Tesla sales falling 23%. But they left out the fact that that was just Italy. Now, most of it, most of Europe, as we'll see in a minute, are doing really, really good.

[00:01:49]But that was their headline. Does that sound like honest reporting to you? I'm sorry. These guys just drive me nuts.

[00:01:57]There's multiple articles out today about Open AI getting into the humanoid space. That could be the reason, right?

[00:02:03]Well, maybe there's a knee-jerk reaction. But of course, if humanoids work at all, and I believe they will be, and I believe there will be way lots and lots and lots of competitors to Tesla, the TAM is so large that uh 10 companies making lots and lots and lots of them could never fill that TAM. And of course, the OpenAI folks would be way way behind the pack at this point.

[00:02:30]Tesla owners of Silicon Valley this morning serious according to them uh there are serious gains serious momentum in of all places Japan sales are up 151% year-over-year that see that's what Reuters article should have said the headline should have been Tesla sales up 151% and not put in Japan year-over-year through April 2026 a remarkable jump in a market long dominated by their domestic automakers. Fresh shipments of Tesla have been spotted near Yokohama, suggesting demand continues to build.

[00:03:06]Breaking into Japan has never been easy for foreign car brands, which makes this growth story even more notable. Tesla Chan out this morning says sales of Tesla in Europe for May 2026 are being made public. Here are the rates of increase so far. Norway up 27%.

[00:03:25]Sweden up 71%. Denmark up 136%. France up 655%.

[00:03:34]Portugal up 4x.

[00:03:37]That wasn't part of Tesla Chans. That was a separate uh uh separate article that I saw. Um yeah. So uh talk to me, talk to me, talk to me. Reuters, Yahoo Finance this morning has this article which I've trimmed down from the original. Tesla's new car sales in Spain more than doubled. I'm sorry, this is not the right article. This is tradingview.com. Tesla new car sales in Spain more than doubled in May, reflecting strong demand for the electric vehicle makers products in one of Europe's key automotive markets.

[00:04:08]Registration data released by industry group and fact on Monday showed that Tesla sold 1690 vehicles in Spain representing more than doubling compared to the same month last year.

[00:04:21]The strong monthly performance added to Tesla's gains in Spanish market this year. All right, let's see here.

[00:04:28]Investing.com says this. Um, Caner Fitzgerald reiterated an overweight rating and a $510 price target on Tesla on uh today on Monday, citing pro progress on the company's humanoid robot production plans. The price target suggests upside potential from the current trending trading price of $420 this morning, though Investing Pro data indicates the stock is overvalued. That's what Investing Pro says, but not Cander Fitzgerald. The company's 1.64 trillion market cap, which is probably down this morning, reflects its position as prominent player in the automobile industry. The firm noted that Tesla disclosed in the first quarter that its first generation production line for the Optimus robot is being installed in California and that line is replacing the SNX vehicles. We know all that.

[00:05:20]Tesla's also preparing a second generation production line in Giga, Texas in about eight eight 80 million square feet. It's I still can't get my arms around these numbers. It's either eight or 80. Um, whatever it is, it's just a little bit smaller than the uh Tesla mega factory down there, the the uh Austin Gigafactory. The firm expects initial Optimus deliveries to begin in the third quarter of 2027. I assume that means to retail customers with initial average selling prices closer to a 100,000. I'm hoping that's 100,000 a year compared to management's long-term target of around 20,000 at scale. Initial deliveries are expected to target commercial applications for many years. According to Randy Kirk, Caner Fitzgerald models Optimus production of 2500 units in fiscal 2027.

[00:06:16]6,000 units in fiscal 2028 and 18,000 units in fiscal 2029. What that would be per month maybe? Oh my gosh. So if they got the real numbers there, they would have the price even higher. In other recent news, Tesla has seen a significant surge in vehicle registrations. This is uh uh we already reported that um additional Estonia also seeing increase and they're they're now offering FSD stock twitz has this this morning. This is the one that I did uh uh compress the article a little bit.

[00:06:49]Shares of Tesla slipped 1% actually 3% in overnight trading heading into Monday as speculation around a space SpaceX merger builds. A former Lehman Brothers trader warns that investors chasing SpaceX's Blockbuster IPO could be be repeating the same mistake many made with Amazon before its 90% collapse. The uh Durexian daily Tesla, it looks to me like I messed up again here with my stuff. Larry McDonald, founder of the Bear Traps Report and former Layman Brothers trader, is issuing a stark warning against SpaceX sky-high valuation. He compares investing in SpaceX today to buy to buying Amazon at the peak of the dotcom bubble. In a post on X, Macdonald calculated that a $2 trillion valuation for SpaceX would require the company to eventually reach 1,500 trillion to 1,900 trillion for investors to see Tesla-like returns, a figure he calls astronomically unrealistic. Yes, I agree. So, in other words, if you want your stock to go up as much as some of the IPOs in his some of the most amazing IPOs in history to go up as much as those and you're already at two trillion, it seems unrealistic.

[00:08:12]Okay, we're not. We're expecting it to go from two trillion to 20 trillion.

[00:08:16]That would be a 10x. That would be enough. Maybe it goes to 100 trillion.

[00:08:20]That would be 50x. That would be enough for everybody. SpaceXs is preparing what could be the largest IPO in history. Um, the company reported that we know all that. Let's go here. McDonald argues the market is drunk on a narrative with artificial intelligence becoming the new everything. He sees SpaceX, Open AAI, and Anthropic as the defining deals of the cycle. That's true. Their combined valuation has exploded from 760 billion to 3.5 trillion in just one year. Pure madness, he says. as he warns this IPO would mark the peak similar to the AOL Time Warner merger before the.com crash. His biggest concern is the impact on everyday investors with new rules allowing faster index inclusion. Passive funds could be forced to buy tens of billions of SpaceX shares regardless of price. McDonald calls this the dark side of passive investing, warning that AI giants already dominate the S&P 500 and adding these new heavyweights could create a death leak overdose. He never says any of these pees are overdone. He never says that any of any of these people are not doing amazing earnings which justify these. He never says that any of them are not showing uh absolutely astronomical growth going forward. He just says that well it might be kind of like this past deal which is nothing like the past deal because we're not in the early innings of this particular uh uptick. Anyway, um let's see the uh trading key says that Tesla moved down by 3.78. You know the that's today so far with earlier maybe I don't know whether is now the automobiles and auto parts sector is down 3.5 that could be a reason the company underperformed underperformed the industry but not during the year top three stocks by turnover in the sector Tesla down 3.78 Ford down this is earlier this morning 2.15 and Rivian down 2.21 21. Uh, also we could be looking at a completely technical issue this morning where Tesla is bouncing off of that 445 range uh for the about the third time and testing 220 which is where it is right now. Uh, we I'm sorry, did I say 220? 420. Uh, what else? There was one more reason why we might be down this morning, which skips my mind, but I bet it'll come back. Um uh oh oh mag seven stocks uh about half are down almost as much as Tesla right now. There could be some rotation could should be some rotation could be some rotation either into the SpaceX opportunity or there could be some rotation some trimming some selling in order to take advantage of some of these high flyers. As I mentioned earlier people could be going you know I'm kind of tired of sitting around waiting for robo taxi. I'm going to take a bit out and I'm going to go over and grab some of these new guys that brought broad brought some of the new guys that are coming up. All right, this is uh Randy Kirk by the way and this morning you are being uh this particular episode is being brought to you by none other than uh Gibbs. Yeah, that that guy, you know, uh Nick Gibbs, um and his amazing um trading recommendations with regard to options, uh you can spend an spend an entire day with him, seven, eight, nine, 10 hours while he unwraps and and unveils all of his techniques and his methods and also the fundamentals of trading options. And the information is down below if you want to get involved.

[00:12:02]I think June is sold out at this point.

[00:12:04]So the the uh link below is for the July uh uh class. Reuters US construction spending increased more than expected in April, boosted by single family home building. The rose rising mortgage rates amid the war with Iran continue to cast a shadow over the housing market. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said Monday that construction spending rose4% after a downwardly revised 2% increase in March. So this could be some balancing. Economist poll by Reuters had forecast construction spending only at 0.2 for spending after a big rise in March. But remember there's the other part of that construction spending.

[00:12:45]Construction spending increased.9% year-over-year uh uh in April. Spending on private construction projects advanced point4. Investment in residential construction.8 spending on new family single housing projects increased 1.4. I you've heard me say it before. I'm gonna say it again and again and again. This is pure folly.

[00:13:07]We're not building families fast enough to fill all those homes. Well, we'll see what happens. Chris Williams, chief business economist at S&P said today, uh, here are the top top five takeaways from the May 2026 S&P global US manufacturing PMI. Strongest expansion in nearly four years. The headline PMI rose to 55.1% from 54.5 in April. A major beat marking the highest reading since May 2022 and the 10th consecutive month above 50.0. The major split between up and down. This signals a sharp improvement in overall manufacturing conditions. Now that we have also robust production growth.

[00:13:50]Output advanced at the fastest rate since April 2022. Production growth outpaced new orders, enabling firms to build finished goods inventories for the second straight. So, the inventories are up. Strong new orders. There are there are some stockpiling. New orders rose sharply, though slightly slower than April, largely due to clients building safety stocks amid expected price hikes and supply disruptions.

[00:14:13]Sharp rise await export exports remain weak. All right. Sharp rise in input costs. Uh supply chain pressures. Input costs surged at the fastest rate since July of 2022. Driven by raw materials, especially fuel and oil. Yes, we we get that. Inflationary pressures and cautious outlook. Manufacturers raised output prices at the fastest rates in September. Uh passing on the costs.

[00:14:39]Employment rose modestly, best in five months, supported by positive but softening sentiment. However, business confidence fell to a four-month low due to geopolitical risks. Uh Chris Williamson, the head economist, had these insights. The headline looks strong, but much of the growth stems from temporary stockpiling. Overall, the report shows solid near-term momentum in US manufacturing. And to balance that out or to increase the uh information, you've got the top five takeaways from the ISM manufacturing PMI report. The strongest expansion since May of 2022.

[00:15:14]Headline manufacturing PMI rose to 54 in May up 1.3 compared to April's 52.7 and also a beat. It's the highest uh ratings since May 2022.

[00:15:27]Overall economy expanded for the 19th straight month. All six largest manufacturing industries grew every one of them. Accelerated demand and output.

[00:15:35]New orders surged to 56.8 up 2.7 points.

[00:15:40]Production rose to 54.3 up.9 points.

[00:15:43]seventh straight month of growth.

[00:15:45]Persistent supply chain pressures but high prices, same thing. Mixed labor and inventory picture. Employment stayed in contraction a little bit according to their report. And uh inventories remain too low, too low. So we're building inventories, but they're too low according to this report. Geopolitical report uh risks of course are still there. Orders return to growth and imports rose to 53%. So you know you got these two reports and they they they don't talk to exactly the same people and so you get somewhat different results but between the two obviously manufacturing is going nuts right now.

[00:16:23]Overall ISM showed solid broadening manufacturing recovery with solid demand and output but elevated inflation supplier delays and geopolitical tensions especially in energy remain key headwinds. All right, let's go ahead and see just how bad the uh the uh negative numbers are this morning on Tesla. We are now down below 420, but barely 41980.

[00:16:48]Uh it has been lower, but it's not like really pricking up very much right now.

[00:16:52]It looks like it's going to hang around in that in that space for a while longer. We got the Dow Jones uh down 27.

[00:17:00]The Nasdaq's actually up.37. S&P is up.17. But Apple is down 2%. Google is down almost 1%. Amazon is down 3 and a.5%. Meta is down 3 and 1.5%. Only Microsoft up 2.34 and Nvidia up 5% probably based on their new PC that they announced today. Those are the only other uh the only members of the Mag 7 that are up this morning. We got the VIX at 16% even with uh saber rattling going over in Iran. Um not not good news this morning. Uh but so far the markets seem to be not that concerned. Although oil, you'll see is actually up and bond yields are up. All right, we've got Kathy Woods mostly up this morning and the ones that aren't in green yet look like they're going to the green and that defies the next thing I'm going to tell you.

[00:17:57]So, I think it's because these companies, the AI thing is on and finally Kathy's uh the the companies that Kathy likes are finally having their heyday. Um, and uh Trump just told CNBC that it doesn't even care if the Iran uh negotiations are over because Iran said they're over, but of course, you know, they're just making a lot of hype. Uh, but Trump just shoots back at him. I don't care.

[00:18:27]Whatever. But obviously Trump has the Trump card which means you know he could go back to bombing and that's what I would call for. I think it needs to happen. That's one place I think Trump has been wrong because he should have done that earlier. We've got bonds up uh on the yields this morning up 2.6%. They were up more earlier at 4.481.

[00:18:48]We've got oil up $545 on the Texas Intermediate back up to 90 almost 93 9282. Brent up a similar amount up $4.90 to 9602.

[00:19:02]But natural gas has finally come down even before I could ask what was going on. We're back down to 319. That's down 3.13% so far today. Gold is down 1.91% at 4550 and silver down86.

[00:19:19]Still hanging in there over 75. 7522.

[00:19:22]Copper up 2.4 654. Let me go inside and check it out.

[00:19:29]654.

[00:19:31]Um, let's go here. No, we're just below all-time high at this point. Uh, so not quite back to all-time high on copper.

[00:19:39]And you've got the dollar mixed rising to mixed mixed to rising. We got Bitcoin down almost 2,000 to 707 71477.

[00:19:49]Now here's another case down 2.67. This is kind of like your MAG7s. This is kind of like your Tesla. This is beginning to show a pattern maybe uh that money is coming out of flyers. Money is coming out of the people that are already way up. Okay? And if they're way up, that's the place to trim if you want to move some of the money into some of the other flyers or if you want to move some money into the uh SpaceX IPO. So, this is kind of where I'm leaning this morning as to what's going on. Ethereum down 61 back under under 2000 at 1983.

[00:20:28]All right. Later this morning, Larry Goldberg and um yeah, see you had Brian.

[00:20:34]No, no, what did you have? Oh, yeah. had that special that I did this morning.

[00:20:38]I'll start there. I did a special thing last night. I mean this morning actually. Uh I posted the the Kent Marsh video again. Okay. But only part of it.

[00:20:48]I 45 minutes instead of an hour and 15.

[00:20:52]That's an important video. If you haven't watched the full 1 hour and 15 minute from Saturday, you should watch this 45 minute version that I put up this morning earlier today. Um all right. Then later today, you you're going to have um Larry Goldberg, as I just mentioned a few minutes ago. Oh, by the way, I'll put the card up on that.

[00:21:12]Kent Marsh um and you are going to have what what else are you going to have tonight? Oh, that's it. That's Larry Goldberg later today. That's right.

[00:21:21]That's all that that's the third show.

[00:21:23]All right. So, look for that around 4 o'clock, 4:30 California time. Um, and yeah, that's 100% of all I got for you today, except to tell you it has been great talking to