This Won't End Well...

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:02]This won't end well for the people who aren't paying attention.

[00:00:06]And I mean that in the most constructive way possible because everything I'm going to walk you through in the next 15 minutes is happening right now live in real time. And the people who are watching closely are positioning accordingly while everyone else is glued to basically chaos. Before we get into it, the only thing I ask in return for all the work that goes into making a video like this is that you hit that like button and subscribe. Every time you do that, YouTube pushes this video out to more high-n networth women, which helps us prepare more women for what's happening. Okay, let's start with what's going on in the Middle East because this is not just background noise anymore.

[00:00:50]It's the central variable driving markets. In 2026, the United States and Iran are effectively at war. Started in late February. There's a fragile ceasefire in place that went into effect in early April, and it's hanging by a thread. As of this morning, Iran's foreign ministry said they're reviewing an American proposal to end the war. But just hours earlier, a different Iranian official called that same proposal, quote, more a list of American wishes than a reality. So you have two officials from the same government saying completely opposite things on the same morning. So it's not a sign of a government that has a unified, confident negotiating position. It's a sign of a government that's internally fractured and under enormous economic pressure.

[00:01:39]Meanwhile, President Trump posted on Truth Social this morning saying if Iran doesn't agree to terms, the bombing starts again and it will be at a much higher level and intensity. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Tuesday that the war was over. He literally said, "Operation Epic Fury is concluded." Then Trump contradicted him 24 hours later.

[00:02:01]This is the environment we're navigating. Contradictory signals, enormous stakes, and markets that are somehow still pushing higher.

[00:02:10]Now, let's talk about the straight of Hormuz because this is where the economic damage is most visible and most acute. That narrow waterway between Iran and Oman normally carries about a fifth of the world's oil supply. It's been effectively closed since the war started. More than 1600 ships are stranded there. Right now, with roughly 20,000 basically, you can call them sailors on board.

[00:02:35]It's a big number. 1,600 ships. The global supply chain runs on ships and 1,600 of them are sitting in a war zone.

[00:02:44]Iran announced a new mechanism this week to oversee maritime traffic through the strait where ships would need to apply for a transit permit from something called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy said that only vessels complying with their rules would be guaranteed safe passage once the American threat is quote neutralized.

[00:03:04]The United States is simultaneously claiming control over the straight and just paused a naval escort operation that started literally one day earlier.

[00:03:13]Pakistan's mediating. China's foreign minister met with Iran's foreign minister in Beijing this morning. A Trump cheese summit is happening next week. There are about seven different threads of diplomacy happening simultaneously and none of them have produced a definite outcome. This is why oil prices are swinging wildly. Brent crude briefly dropped below $100 a barrel this morning and then bounced back to around 103 after Iran pushed back on the peace deal reports. Before this war started, oil was significantly lower. Gas prices at the pump are now at a national average of $4.54 a gallon, up 53 cents since the war began. Diesel at $567, up 51%.

[00:03:58]Those numbers hit everyday Americans directly. And they hit small businesses that depend on transportation and logistics even harder. And I want you to understand something important about what oil price volatility actually does to the broader economy. Because I think a lot of people watch oil prices like it's just a number on a screen. It's not. When oil moves this dramatically this fast, it creates a cascading effect through every sector that depends on energy for its inputs, which is basically every sector. Airlines, trucking, manufacturing, agriculture, chemical, plastics. the cost pressure flows downstream and eventually shows up in the price of everything. And it shows up in earnings reports, which brings me to something I mentioned to the market bay community more than a week ago, and we're going to come back to it in a few minutes because the market was already telling us where the rotation was headed before any of this morning's headlines dropped. Now, let me give you the bigger macro picture because the war and the oil price situation exist within a much larger context that I think most financial media is not connecting clearly enough. The United States is carrying more than $ 39 trillion in debt. By every historical precedent, the current system should already be under extreme stress. Yet, the USA continues operating as if nothing's wrong. And financial markets just keep hitting all-time highs with the S&P 500 up again today, pushing further into record territory. The S&P rose about6% this morning. European stocks jumped over 2%.

[00:05:28]South Korea's Cosby rose more than 6% on the Gulf easing at news. The market's pricing in a best case scenario on the Iran situation while simultaneously ignoring the structural debt problem and the genuine economic deterioration happening in real time for working Americans. And that disconnect between what markets are doing and what the real economy is doing. It's not now new in 2026. It's been building for years. And there's two forces accelerating it that I want you to understand because they're going to define the next decade of wealth creation and wealth destruction in this country. For the first time in history, women hold the majority of W2 positions. At the same time, roughly 3 million people with access to US markets are going to inherit a million dollars or more in the next decade. And 70% of them are women. This is what people are calling the great wealth transfer. It's not a small thing. It's a generational reordering of who holds capital in this country. Here's the part that keeps me and people like me up at night. Despite the fact that women achieve higher returns with less risk on average than men, it's true that 84% of women report lacking confidence in their ability to invest.

[00:06:40]And I have a sister and that gap between capability and confidence is costing people like all over the world real money, but particularly women. It's retirement security. It's real generational wealth. It doesn't have to.

[00:06:53]Which is why I built the market bay program to give women a framework to take control of their portfolios in 10 minutes a day. Right now, I'm offering a free report on the best six AI stocks for May 2026 at marketb.com/newsletter.

[00:07:09]All you need to do is enter your email and you'll get the report. And if you want to learn how I actually pick stocks, that report is the place to start. Go to marketb.com/newsletter.

[00:07:18]If you like what you see and want to check if you qualify for the full program, click learn more once you've grabbed the report. So, it's the report.

[00:07:25]You enter your email. Report gets sent to your email. There's a page. Click learn more. Back to markets.

[00:07:33]Because here's what I want you to really internalize. The market's always showing strength somewhere. Always. Even when oil stocks were surging on the back of this war and everyone was panicking about gas prices and straight of horses disruptions, there were sectors quietly rotating into strength. That is how institutional money moves. Doesn't panic out of everything and go to cash. It rotates. It finds the next trade investment. And the people who understand sector rotation are the ones who actually make money in volatile markets, not just the ones who hold on and hope. And really quickly before I keep going, if this kind of analysis is useful to you, hit that like button and subscribe and the link is in the description as well as the pinned comment. YouTube, if you do that like that, you know, YouTube's going to push this out to more women when you engage with it, which is the whole point, getting more women prepared for what's happening in real economy and in the actual markets. So the rotation I want to talk about is it's add of energy and cyclicals in a defense of healthcare. Now this is not a new pattern. When geopolitical risk spikes and consumers start feeling real pain at the pump, you typically see a flight towards companies that have pricing power, steady demand regardless of the economic cycle and the ability to manage costs tightly. Pharmacy benefits managers, PBMs, right? Large integrated insurers, healthcare companies, anything with government exposure. These are businesses where demand does not evaporate when gas hits $4.54 a gallon.

[00:09:01]People still fill their prescriptions.

[00:09:03]People still need insurance. The government still pays out Medicare and Medicaid reimbursements. And the market's been whispering this for weeks.

[00:09:11]Not today, not this morning. Weeks. The geopolitical backdrop has been deteriorating since late February. And the rotation signals were visible to anyone watching sector flows closely.

[00:09:21]Which gets me to the earning story of the morning and why I want to connect it directly to what we flagged in the market babe community. Because when earnings confirm a thesis that was already in motion, that's when you understand why the work of doing this analysis ahead of the news cycle matters so much. And I'm going to name the stock in just a moment. But first, I want to reemphasize something about this moment in time because it's genuinely important. The Trump administration is simultaneously running a war in the Middle East, managing a blockade of Iranian ports, conducting parallel diplomatic tracks through Pakistan and China, presiding over gas prices that are up 53% since the war began, and trying to navigate a domestic economy where job openings are falling, but not as fast as feared.

[00:10:02]Does that make sense? Not as fast as feared. Yes. Deutsche Bank analysts noted this morning that the chief driver of positive equity market momentum right now is the signal that the ceasefire is still technically in place. So it's a very thin thread to hang a bull market on. And yet here we are and the S&P is proving it pushing record highs. This is why you need a balanced portfolio. Not because I'm bearish on America. I'm not.

[00:10:26]But because $39 trillion in debt, a war that is closed a waterway carrying 20% of the world's oil and gas prices at $4.54 cents a gallon are not a healthy economic backdrop. And anyone telling you to be fully concentrated in growth and momentum right now, it's not giving you the full picture. In fact, semis are very extended. The best way to protect and grow your retirement through this kind of chaos is balance. Exposure to the areas where money's rotating in, protection from the areas where it's rotating out. And one more time, if you're not already subscribed, do it now. And hit the link as well uh for those stocks. So, I put serious work into this analysis. I update the stocks every month. Every like and subscribe helps this get shown to more people who need to hear it.

[00:11:10]Marketabb.com/newsletters where you can grab the free report again on the best six AI stocks for May. Just send your email. Now, the stock on April 28th, more than a week before this morning's earnings report on the daily market bay market open sector rotation zoom call, the number one recommended stock called out to the community was CVS Health. And there was also a mention in the market bay group chat of a multi-billion dollar stock that was showing early rotation signals. That was CVS. CVS Health reported first quarter 2026 earnings this morning, and they were a beat on virtually every line that mattered. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $257 against analyst expectations of around $221. Total revenue hit over 100 billion, up 6% year-over-year, smashing the Wall Street consensus of roughly 95 billion. And the part that really matters for understanding why the rotation call was right. The healthcare benefit segment saw adjusted operating income surge 52% to $3 billion. Their medical benefit ratio, which is essentially a measure of how much of premium revenue goes out in claims, improved dramatically to 84% from 87% the year before.

[00:12:17]I'm not sure consumers love that stat, but that's the margin recovery story playing out exactly as the thesis suggested. And asset holders are excited. Management raised full year 2026 guidance. They now project adjusted earnings per share between $7.30 and $7.50 50 and a cash flow from operations outlook of at least $9 billion. Shares jumped over 4% just an hour or two ago in pre-market trading. And that call was made more than a week ago on the daily sector rotation zoom. So the market was already showing where the strength was while everyone was watching oil spike and honestly doom scrolling headlines about the straight moves. The rotation into defensive healthcare was already in motion. That's what the market babe daily market open is designed to surface. surface the moves before they become obvious in the sectors where institutional money is quietly going.

[00:13:05]They leave footprints while retail investors are distracted by geopolitical noise. That's the edge. And if you want to be in the room where those calls are being made, marketb.com/newsletter is where you start. Grab the free report on the best six AI stocks for May. Enter your email. And if you want to check if you qualify for the full program, click learn more. You'll see a little quiz.

[00:13:26]Uh, this is how you stay ahead of the chaos rather than just reacting to it.

[00:13:31]I'm so ready.