Maybe I Got This Completely Wrong...

Added: 2026-06-04

[00:00:00]This is a sweet chart and I want to illustrate something for you, but I've been called many things lately, especially lately because I'm a macro bull. People take it very personal. My just approach to crypto, my thoughts about crypto. Even though I've been calling for the dip all year long since January, the postquantitative tightening dip, people are just not happy about my, I guess, macro outlook, the optimistic outlook for crypto. And maybe you're out there and you're a macro bull like myself. And maybe you're not being called names, but maybe the names that I'm being called is a good representation in terms of perhaps the doubts or the second guessing that you have in relation to crypto.

[00:00:46]Should you be bullish? Did you make a mistake? Should you have it? It looks so clear and obvious. Was it all a mistake?

[00:00:57]That's the question that I kind of want to answer in this very quick video. So, we're going to get to the sweet chart. I was looking at it and kind of just noticed something. I do want to start here. Oftent times, you know, this is my world as a content creator, especially now. There will be just threads. If I choose to hit notifications and look at what people are saying, there will be threads, these little hangout groups of of people that are just like kind of going back and forth making fun of me, calling me names, coming to conclusions that are ridiculous, like I'm a scammer, or this guy just saying that I'm shorting. Even as I'm doing my videos, I'm actually shorting. People coming to crazy cynical and just negative conclusions. I thought this one was interesting though and it bookmarked it not just for this video but I think I think for when we are in a bull market I would like to revisit this video this this comment I actually think he may be a huge example of Dunning Krueger and unaware what's interesting is he is so sure of this I know that if you are unaware here's what Dunning Krueger is a cognitive bias where people with limited knowledge or skill in a specific domain greatly overestimate their own competence. So, let me first just say as a macro bull, you know, in terms of analysis and even short to midterm cycle analysis, I think my analysis has been pretty good in terms of calling the postquantitative tightening dip that has happened. But I think from even a macro bullish standpoint, because if you're out there, if you've watched my content, you just know I'm optimistic. I'm bullish on crypto. We fall 50%, I'm bullish on crypto. we fall 90% I'm bullish on crypto. I'm just I see a different thing on the zoomed out.

[00:02:44]That's that's the basis of my content.

[00:02:46]It's the basic basis of my approach to crypto. But I will say this, if I have Dunning Krueger, then I guess Tom Lee does too. Right now Tom Lee ETH is down 60% from highs. BMR uh Bitmine sitting on 3.8 billion in unreal unrealized losses. So if I have Dunning Krueger, maybe you have Dunning Krueger and you're just you're also just crazy and you're you're incompetent for being bullish on crypto. So does Tom Lee. Tom Lee calls this a buying opportunity. Their stocks down 88% apparently. So Tom Lee, I was also thinking Hunter Horesley, who is actually the CEO of Bitwise, he has he has it as well. Four-year cycle is dead.

[00:03:31]He's been saying this. This is a post from December 2025, and I 100% agree with him. the four-year cycle is dead. I don't mind being in this camp of people we all have done in Krueger. But here's the thing I wanted to just propose to you.

[00:03:46]If if right now my approach and many of you I'm sure you're frustrated. I'm frustrated. Look at this is okay. I've been accumulating for quite some time.

[00:03:56]It has just only gone down for months.

[00:03:59]Four months it's been sideways with a huge fake out. You we just had like this. Look at this wick on the monthly.

[00:04:07]What I want to just I just want to I want to propose something to you. It's just such a simple thing and we can actually even use alongside the sweet chart. We can use the business cycle chart. PMI just expanded again today.

[00:04:20]It's why it's relevant especially I've been saying since we were contracting for years that I think we're about to get into expansion. And when that happens, pay attention. Pay attention to Russell 2000. Pay attention to all of these things that are leading indic indicators for crypto, especially altcoins.

[00:04:40]Now, it has happened, right? And we've just printed higher again on the PMI.

[00:04:45]While we have all these indicators, this is copper versus gold, another macro bottom indicator. When this has happened, it's led to bull markets.

[00:04:54]Right? When the PMI has started to expand, it has been a bull market. The point of me showing you that alongside SU is this. If that happens, if the macro thesis plays out, maybe maybe it's taking taken longer than I thought it would, right?

[00:05:15]And crypto even has been sideways or down even a little bit more than I thought it would.

[00:05:22]if it plays out all of the sideways, all of the down, all of the accumulation while people are calling names or or you know, you're out there, you're doubting your approach to crypto, and I'm not saying it's bad to it's bad to doubt your approach to crypto or second guess, it's a normal thought process to go through. But if this plays out and crypto follows the business cycle and crypto enters a bull market and there is a shock to the upside and a massive repricing of this very undervalued asset class, all of the craziness, all of the delusional accumulation and the delusional just preparation and being bullish on all my altcoins that are down massively, right?

[00:06:08]It just takes that one time where all of that craziness turns out to be the best, the absolute best, the smartest thing that I could have done, the smartest thing anyone could have ever done. And welcome to the world of a value investor when things are undervalued to position accordingly when it is incredibly unpopular. This is why I really enjoy watching Tom Lee because he has been through this for quite some time and I I enjoy watching him handle that journey as well because this is what is happening right now in crypto. Alls it takes is one time and the reason I was looking at sweet chart is because when I was looking at this my thought was not I have 100 you know 167% to the 20-month moving average on sweet $240 $2.50 50 cent area.

[00:07:04]The point of that is not saying, "Hey, that's where SWE is going." If we enter a bull market, for instance, SWE, this chart I think is gonna do insane. This move here is like a 150% move out of nowhere. This is the type of move that could just happen in a month. The beginning of it all, the beginning of the repricing.

[00:07:26]And that move alone in one month, a year worth of just doubt, second-guessing, opening up my notifications, and being called whatever, terrible comments. It's so worth it to me. It It will be so worth it to me. And you know what? If I am incompetent and I am crazy and it doesn't play out and SWU goes to zero and everything goes to zero, it doesn't work out. You know what I'm happy about?

[00:07:56]I wasn't so incompetent that I didn't not manage my risk appropriately.

[00:08:07]Because if you're in the game and you're staying in the game, if you can manage your risk properly to stay in the game and to position accordingly, you position for zero, you position for a parabolic bull market. If you can do that, that's that's the play. That is how I try to do my analysis, you know, over the years doing these videos. But that's the play for me. So alls it takes is one moment. Alls it takes is for the macro thesis to play out and it's just it's all worth it and the notifications will probably disappear and the people that gather and flock in my comments now because things are down is down dog ADA like three of my top altcoins because they are they're all down. They look terrible.

[00:09:01]But it's okay because if it plays out and if crypto goes into expansion following all of these other indicators that I've been tracking, then for me it'll be worth it.

[00:09:14]And so that's what I'm watching and maybe we do go lower, right? That's why I I I like to lately look at, you know, Bitcoin structure, the bottoming out structure. What's it doing? What are the possibilities? Right now we're at support. or I have to do a video on this maybe next. Um, but it's just preparation on the macro. That's what I'm interested in. And the way that the story is developing right now, I am so curious. So, call it Dunning Krueger, call it whatever you want. I'm a macro bull on crypto and it just is what it is. And if you're a macro bull in crypto out there as well, I appreciate you watching. I appreciate you hanging in there um on this crypto journey. If you're not a subscriber, subscribe. Hit the like if you enjoyed the video. Let's see what happens, everybody. I'll see you in the next video. God bless.