Is The 4 Year Cycle Theory Broken? What Does This Mean For Crypto And XRP?

Added: 2026-05-04

[00:00:01]Hey guys, how are we doing? Crypto Insight UK here bringing you back another YouTube video.

[00:00:06]So today, we're going to actually challenge uh the 4-year cycle. We're going to discuss whether or not the 4-year cycle is still valid and what we might need to see for that to be confirmed or denied.

[00:00:19]Um if we zoom to the larger time frame, we're going to use Bitcoin to start with and it's applicable to a lot of different tokens here and then we're going to also discuss XRP as well as obviously a lot of our my channel and myself um are very invested in XRP.

[00:00:34]So to start with, this is where we want to start.

[00:00:36]The 4-year cycle would essentially say that our bottom would come in somewhere towards the end of this year. It would say that the top was pretty much where the top was um in in like late October uh 2025 and that a bear market would take between 9 and 12 months, come in somewhere probably between like maybe like September, October, November sort of time uh next year. Of this year, sorry.

[00:01:03]Well, to contradict that, what we can see is um the key momentum indicators of the weekly time frame, so the MACD uh and the RSI have both confirmed bullish crosses. When we've had bullish crosses from these levels historically, like you can go throughout history, you can see that this has either marked the exact bottom or been very close to the bottom. What we're going to basically find out in the next few months in my opinion is whether this is more of like a mid-cycle correction to then go on to set new higher highs and you can obviously there are other ways to that we're going to discuss that um may or may not suggest that this could be a bottom or whether the 4-year cycle, as I said, is still intact and we go to set on new to set new lows from here.

[00:01:45]Which would be maybe more similar to the 2022 cycle potentially.

[00:01:49]It's a very difficult position to be in right now and anyone who tells you they they know exactly where we are is in my opinion lying.

[00:01:56]Especially when or they haven't taken in enough data points. Or maybe they've taken in more and seen something that I don't, which is also obviously very possible. When you look around the world and you see the S&P uh for example, all-time highs, the weekly MACD crossing bullish and the RSI crossing bullish as we move to all-time highs on low volume, it's kind of like, well, what the [ __ ] is going on there? Um it feels like the rest of the world and and and the rest of the investing world, like everything's a bit of a show and a bit of a Ponzi at the at well, even more so at the minute than ever. And then you looking at things like oil um obviously because of the interest in and the conflicts in the in the Middle East.

[00:02:34]It's at $96 a barrel. Last time the S&P was at all-time highs, it was at 65-ish dollars. So it's up like ish 50% since then, which is obviously detrimental to economies over time. It actually probably um would indicate that at some point inflation will come because they'll have to pass on the cost of oil to consumers at some point.

[00:02:55]Then on the on the count on the country in contrary to that, on the counter-argument, if oil spends any time above 108, it normally gets artificially um back down [clears throat] or back down by the market. We've not seen any significant history above that. So you could also argue that we're at or close to a point where oil has historically reversed in price. So it's kind of like a uh discussion all the time at the minute as to what may or may not be true in the market. This is what we're really trying to figure out. So if you look at Bitcoin on the weekly time frame, there's definitely a suggestion using the MACD. And if you add to this, again, I haven't got it open like an idiot. Um if you add to this um the open interest and and funding specifically, if you add that we've been in this period of negative funding, which has also coincided with previous lows on top of the MACD on the weekly time frame. So this is the previous bear market bottom.

[00:03:50]This is where we are now in terms of funding. I'll take the drawings off for a second. This is the funding here. You can see that we've been flip-flopping between negative and positive funding.

[00:03:58]They've been areas of accumulation. I've obviously marked them with vertical lines.

[00:04:02]Couple that with the MACD, even this move up so far for Bitcoin within this range has only just started to turn positive today. Um when we started to see that flip, let's say we get to where did it start to turn positive here? This is where we started to turn positive at the last lows. Pretty much marked the bottoms in and then we started to go for a rally. Now, it doesn't mean that we just went straight up, but if you used uh the 2022 time frame um in the space of the next 28 days, it rallied 37% when we started to get that um the funding change from negative to positive. So like 30% in 30 days, where would that take us?

[00:04:43]>> [sighs] >> It would like take us above previous local highs and that's obviously 70 days, so half that. It would take us above previous local highs.

[00:04:52]Maybe it was 30 days. Just to give you a bit of an idea. It's 28 days, wasn't it?

[00:04:56]Somewhere around there.

[00:04:58]Into like mid to end of May and it would take us probably to start closing above um this previous range, which again in this previous range, which that you can argue is structurally very similar and I have been making that argument. Let me take you to I'll put my drawings on.

[00:05:13]Um I've been arguing this range is very similar, creating a range, deviate the highs, come and sweep the lows.

[00:05:22]If you look on the on the on the daily time frame, look, MACD looks potentially ready to cross bearish, as does the RSI, etc. But so structurally, there's definitely similarities here, but if you then zoom out another step and look at the weekly, obviously we're getting that change in momentum and also uh the negative funding, which is definitely different um even if the structure may be the same. So there's a lot of conflicting discussion out there.

[00:05:48]And it throws into question the validity of what may of of like something that's been quite um like a a bedrock of a lot of people's fundamental understanding of crypto being the 4-year cycle. Now obviously, as I said, nothing's confirmed yet and what we're looking at is whether this is going to be confirmed or not very soon.

[00:06:09]Like if for example, we do repeat like 2022 with the negative funding, as I said, the flip in momentum and we start to close above this like 100 100 like this 90 something K 96 97K in the next 30 days, then the 4-year cycle probably is out the window because that would be where most people would indicate and and technically say, "Okay, this is going to probably be a reversal now." Um and you could really start to make the argument that we're going to go on to set a new all-time high and this is more of a mid-cycle correction, but then that would really eradicate the 4-year cycle theory. On the other hand, if we are just repeating similar structures, um we could still set a new lower low here. I don't think that's um completely off the table. I also think, as I said, structurally um it makes sense to be sweeping range lows as well, especially when you bring in uh for example, this is XRP I was just looking at. But if you bring in liquidity on the low time frame and even the even the daily, there's definitely liquidity below us.

[00:07:06]Uh I think that there's an argument a significant argument to say, "Look, um let me just hang on.

[00:07:12]Just do that again.

[00:07:13]Significant argument to say, if our computer loads, sorry, the internet's still bad here.

[00:07:20]Like we're in like a ascending parallel channel. This is probably a reversal pattern. We could come up and sweep obviously the range highs that we're discussing, but there's liquidity below us down to around 60K. And there's a definite discussion to say that that liquidity could get swept. And if that is the case, then it probably means ranging around in here and and it could range around in here for a little while.

[00:07:40]So this is what I've been saying is like I actually feel personally like the lows are in or close to being in. It's just how long do we range here? Um and does that again, like are we more of a mid-cycle correction or could we range here for a few months? And I don't know the answer to that question. I think when you look around at the macro, like I said with the S&P, like that when you look at oil, when you look geopolitically at what's going on, you can't really put any weight too much at the minute apart from technical analysis and technical analysis I can argue on both sides of the spectrum. Um I think if you DCA-ing like in in and around this range is a good area. I probably would be saving some cash in case we do come down to the 60s sort of level for Bitcoin and then buying whatever you want to buy like specifically. If you don't want to buy XRP, wait for Bitcoin to get down to that 60K-ish level. If we get that like 64 65K, if we get that opportunity, that's when I'll be allocating cash. I wouldn't be allocating right here because I think it's kind of like no man's land.

[00:08:33]Um and and that's why I've got this short position in here. Like if we get the push up into that liquidity and then we deviate back to or we come back down, that's a deviation of range highs and we come back down to the range lows, I want to capitalize on that move because I don't know whether that's going to happen or not. But if we don't, it probably eradicates the 4-year cycle.

[00:08:52]We've probably put the bottom in anyway and I'm I'm sitting 95% spot. So that's where you need to really understand time frame trading. You also need to understand like what what is structurally happening here and what is potentially different between now and even the previous range in like January sort of or like from November to like January. Um it's the same for XRP. Uh we've broken out of this like um like bull flag sort of pattern. If we go to like lower time frame stuff, we can say that we're still accumulating um within like a descending triangle, which may or may not break up or down. But even here, like what I'm trying My point is is like if you I'll I'll take you to the weekly in a second. Like the daily looks like we could correct down and we could correct down to say like 130. We could even sweep these lows. As like you could say that range low would be like 121 and that actually coincides with liquidity. If you go to check my X post, um and bearish on the RSI and the MACD uh bearish like looking momentum on the daily. But then if you take us to the weekly, it's the absolute opposite. Um the weekly MACD has turned or crossing bullish for the first time um, since we had a bullish cross back in July of 2025, which actually led to an all-time high on the weekly. And then the time before that, we actually also led to an explosive rally. Uh, similarly with the RSI, we're we're crossing bullish from touching the oversold area. And the last time we got like anything like this was literally our bear market lows and we never actually set a new low after that. So, the discussion is like a set What I'm trying to say is I think we're going to find out in the next month or two whether the 4-year cycle is no longer um, an effective um, strategy or playbook for crypto generally. I really think that. I know that's a big call uh, because a lot of people put a lot of weight onto that around the halving [clears throat] etc. But, I think we're either going to find out whether this is a mid-cycle correction or whether we're going to set like a slightly new low or potentially a much lower low and things have definitely um, like some technical analysis is definitely then uh, invalid like like the momentum indicators probably can't rely on them even though they've they've run true literally every single bottom for Bitcoin since inception.

[00:11:06]So, we're about we've got like conflicting technical analysis here um, and we're about to find out in the next month or two what is true. And I and I personally believe that we're probably at or near the lows.

[00:11:19]I think worst case we accumulate for a little while longer in this period, but I think people based on funding, based on sentiment, based on uh, the potential that that for the new Fed chair and the introduction into the US financial system, I think people are not weighing enough the probability or possibility that we could see quite an aggressive leg higher from here. And this is why I've been saying to DCA these whole levels.

[00:11:44]I'm still going to be short Bitcoin from the 82K to the bottom of the range in case I'm wrong. I am also at the minute I've gone long XMR because I think privacy is a bit of a shout. Um, XMR has been moving a bit differently or like privacy has been moving differently generally we're we're making a series of higher highs and higher lows. Um, I tweeted about that how I was um, long XMR this week. Uh, we've broken out of this accumulation. Um, if we repeat the same pattern, we're probably looking to put in a high between $1,000 or the 1.

[00:12:14]or the 2.618 from for market cap is $1,156 somewhere between there and there.

[00:12:21]Momentum indicator swinging as well. Um, let's see if we can get that volatility in privacy. Privacy has been moving kind of on its own anyways. You've probably noticed with Zcash etc. So, these are all the question marks I've got out there. I do think we're going to see something quite aggressive one like in the short term. If we start to get a pop from this range, we should see an aggressive move up to the like 90-ish K level. If we reject the 82K, I presume it'll be quite a quick move back down to um, the lows at like 60K. Um, and then what we do from there is what's going to really on either of those scenarios is what's going to decide whether the 4-year cycle theory is invalidated or not. So, it's a very exciting time to be in crypto. I think if you're a a DCAer or a spot holder, you basically know what's that that they these times are are positive like EV for accumulation or um, that's the other thing is like I was I was comparing this in my head to poker and I was thinking like you can play poker and you can play statistical good poker for a long time and not win.

[00:13:32]Um, and that's kind of what I feel like may be happening here is like if you use these like momentum indicators, your statistical advantage um, like over time because history has proven that over time that they should be um, quite effective. However, if we then um, do continue to go down, you have to couple with that and say, "Oh, okay.

[00:13:56]Well, maybe um, my thesis is wrong generally and or like in this in this uh, analogy or my strategy is wrong."

[00:14:05]But, you don't know that until a time frame has played out and you can test that over time because even if you're statistically maybe favorable positive EV, you can still get um, negative variance for a while and you and you need time for that to play out truly.

[00:14:21]So, that's basically where I think we are.

[00:14:24]We're going to find out basically one if our strategy is right um, or or if I essentially if I and and we've had negative variance or if our strategy is wrong um, and we need to reassess. But, we won't know that for another like like I'd say month or two. Um, and we have some obviously key levels where we can find that out. Like if for example in 30 days if we're above 100K, the 4-year cycle theory is wrong and our thought process is probably right. And if we still chop around or set lower lows, then maybe our thesis is wrong and we need to reassess why that might have happened and and how we can stop that um, in the future. So, but crypto is a very volatile asset class and like this time period here as I discussed in the weekly newsletter this week is no different in terms of accumulation period to like this area.

[00:15:13]And although yes, the percentage pullback is different, we still actually spent more time um, basically chopping around here. This is like ish 245 days there from the high.

[00:15:26]And to be actually frank, like this so far is only 210 days. So, we still got 30 days left in this period where like to make it even dissimilar to this area here if that if that makes sense of what I'm trying to say there. So, there's a lot of question marks, but basically in the next month or so, we're going to find out whether the 4-year cycle theory is still valid. And if it isn't, it's a massive change up in crypto.

[00:15:53]And if it is, then we know when the the lows are going to come in and where exactly we need to be um, positioned.

[00:15:59]So, I hope that all makes sense. I've tried to explain what's been going on in my head, what I've been thinking about.

[00:16:04]Um, if you enjoyed the video, please hit the like button, subscribe button and share it with a friend.

[00:16:08]Um, if you want to trade any leverage, I've got a link to WeAct and MEXC in the description of this video. Uh, XRP memes are starting to have a look at them again, I am.

[00:16:17]Uh, there's a link to that if you want to trade XRP memes in this in the description of this video. Obviously, they're super volatile and dangerous.

[00:16:23]So, like please don't be throwing your life savings in there, but they're starting to get a little bit of attention, which is is another thing when XRP actually started to move back in November, the ecosystem specifically memes were doing very well at that time, which is another little thing into my equation where I'm like, "Okay, could could it be?" Um, again, I don't know and and time time will tell.

[00:16:42]But, yeah. Hope you enjoyed the video, guys. As always, nothing I say is financial advice. But, yeah. Peace out.

[00:16:47]Eight town guys, crypto inside UK would say.