Power of sale listings in Ontario real estate have surged 292% over two years, indicating the housing market is far from reaching its bottom despite predictions of recovery. This surge is driven by multiple factors including high mortgage debt levels, rising interest rates, increased cost of living, and systemic issues with government housing programs like CMHC that have increased insurance premiums while issuing billions in dividends to the government. The market is experiencing a cycle where homeowners are trapped in debt for life, with many carrying mortgages into their 80s, and purchasing power for housing has decayed by nearly 200% since 2005.
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Power of Sale Listings Are Exploding in CanadaAdded:
the power of sale and the bankruptcies, the the foreclosures, whatever you want to call them on Ontario real estate specifically, this tracks is not slowing down. Like, it's keeps going up. We're not near the bottom. Like, no data says we're near the bottom. Everything is debt, debt, debt, debt. It was never you will own nothing and be happy as a renter. You'll own something. At least on paper, you'll think you'll own something, but in reality, you're just going to be in debt to the banksters for the rest of your life.
>> They actually don't want you to pay off the mortgage. It all works out for the banks, right? You'll get like halfway the mortgage and then you'll just start giving it back. Spring housing market, boom or bust. I've got my good buddy with me to chat about this. John, it's an honor to have you back. It's been a while. So, are you just rushed off your feet right now in the housing market?
>> I'm rushed off my feet with the frigin trolls from X. I tell you the um you know what, it's been a couple years since we've had any type of spring market cuz last year was complete bust.
This year, I think it's already done.
Like I just said it a couple days ago, I said, you know, this spring market is done. I've got a feeling it's already peaked. And I'm seeing it in my area, but again, my area is not the center of the the earth or the center of Canada.
But yeah, the trolls were enabled and emboldened saying claiming that they called the the bottom and everything else. And I said, "No, like every price is down year-over-year uh in Ontario, I should say. Sorry." And these are the ones that are talking about the Ontario market mainly. And like they literally see like not even like a month, like 3 weeks of increased spring activity. And it's the same thing that we heard in 2023 and 2024. The market's back at the bottom and get out there and buy. And it's, you know, it's like the same narrative. And I'm I have to like tell people, okay, slow down. This is not the market taking off. This is a spring blip. April's prices are lower than they have been in the last 6 years and every month this year in Ontario. So yeah, the data is the data. And uh yeah, don't listen to these trolls. And then when they don't like it when you disagree with them either and they have no data to back it up. So then they call you racist and they call you whatever. I don't even know how that comes into it.
>> All of a su I'm talking about the spring market and I'm a racist. still almost.
So, >> but I suppose the thing is like if you look at the economy now and you think is it in better shape than it was last year like fundamentally just as the base like are more people going to be like yeah you know what now is a good time to buy a house. Like unemployment's going down.
I feel more confident. I've got a little bit more money in my pocket. Like the answer to that question is no. Like I mean look at the gas prices and pe Did you see like people are fighting over like saving 2 three cents a liter now on gas?
>> Yeah. That one place. Yeah. And yeah I forget where it was. It's I think it's somewhere in Ontario. And yeah even the neighbors the businesses are complaining that they're blocking them and it's like they're lining up for an hour to save like 5 cents or something on gas. Uh and how about how about those 37,000 people that claimed bankruptcy or insolveny?
There was this new stat that just came out like last night. The highest since 2009. And yeah, they're they're all lining up to buy houses. I guess those people too, right? Yeah. It's just absolutely crazy what is going on. And I mean, it happens every spring. And the narrative also is always the same from Remax every year. I mean, you called it last year. I think we were chatting last spring around this time and you were like, "Yeah, that that narrative will flip by the end of the year." And it did, and I even talked about it in a later video. And then they came out with the same narrative again, like, oh, you know, I think the bottoms in, sales are going to pick up this year. And like, I mean, things couldn't be worse in my opinion, especially like with the increases and the cost of everything.
And then people hitting renewals as well, like those people haven't got extra spending money either. So, what type of buyers are you getting and what's going on? Is it mostly just people who are trading up or trading down right now that are buying homes?
>> I'm getting reluctant buyers that but again at the lower price points. I was just contacted and they might be watching. I'm obviously not going to say their names, but I just was contacted by somebody and they are in the GTA and they have like they have to move because they have a one-bedroom condo and they have two kids now and so they need to move. they've been there long term and they're just like yeah like but I you know I tell them like okay just remember the when prices continue to go down and if they do and I'm expecting they will like that loss is going to come out of your pocket out of your down payment it's not going to come out of the banks the banks you know they lose their money after you you lose all yours and then the bank lose it but again this is a life a lifestyle choice that people want at this point and yeah they're it's kind of like they've been so abused and they're like well you know it used to cost this much and now I'll I'm willing to pay this much. But like this first time buyer is 50 years old. Like he doesn't want to die in a rental. Listen, I tell my wife I don't want to die on the street cuz I've lived on my street for so long. And I understand the mentality, right? I tell my wife all the time now. I'm like, I don't want to die.
And the kids like I don't want to move.
I'm like, I don't want to die on the street. That's my like my life wishes.
I've lived here since like almost since I moved to this country in uh 1988. I've lived here since 1989. And I'm like, I don't want to die on the street, please.
And but people are like literally at the point now where I don't want to die not owning a house. I don't even care about the mortgage. They don't even care about the mortgage. I just don't want to die.
>> Yeah. And so the these are the kind of buyers I guess I'm I'm selling to.
>> How does that even work though? Like if you're 50 years old and you're going to take out like what a 30-year mortgage?
Like will the bank even allow that? I've never even looked into it. How it works?
Whether they allow it, what happens? I'm surprised like how does how does that even legally work? Like how can a bank give you a 25-year mortgage when you're 50 knowing that you're going to retire most likely in 15 to 17 years statistically speaking? Like, and they're going to give you a 25-y year mortgage. Like, shouldn't there be like a cut off date? So, the cut off should be 40 years old, which is now the average age of the firsttime buyer in Canada. So, technically, the bank shouldn't be g giving any first-time buyers a mortgage, which is which is insane. Like, but again, they don't they're like, "Yeah, here here's a mortgage. You're 50 years old. They'll pay it off when you're 75. You could be dead. You'll statistically be retired, but here's the mortgage." And and uh yeah, so I find that fascinating.
>> And then that will be just in time to turn it into a reverse mortgage, right?
Because that's what's happening more and more. the fastest one of the fastest growing companies in Canada. Probably be the same this year as well as like Home Equity Bank. I mean, literally, >> well, they don't want you. They actually don't want you to pay off the mortgage.
It all works out for the banks, right?
You'll get like halfway the mortgage and then you'll just start giving it back and then so the the bank will have you 50% financed the whole time or more. And so, yeah, it really does work out for the banks and the government and the bond holders and all the rest, right?
So, >> yeah. I mean, maybe it was never you will own nothing and be happy as a renter. Maybe it was like you'll own something. At least on paper, you'll think you'll own something, but in reality, you're just going to be in debt to the banksters for the rest of your life. It's absolutely insane. And like a lot of people, I saw a recent poll as well that was like something crazy. I think it was around 60% of people are relying on inheritance now for their retirement. And I'm like, how's that going to work when like people are just getting rid of their home equity and like a lot of people I mean, even the ones that had it have given it away as down payments for other people. I mean, it's crazy. What do you think of that?
I'm probably I'm hoping nobody's watching this video that I'm not but that that that might relate to this situation uh from people I've talked to and but again this is this is the situation we're in. So and these are true stories. So it used to be and I used to like this is like last year. I remember I got a call from somebody and like someone just died like a parent or an aunt or who I can't remember and they were like 2 weeks like and they're like getting the house on the market. I'm like holy cow like you know they're barely in the ground and these people are putting the house on the market like but whatever, right? Who am I? I don't care. I'm I'm very desensitized to that kind of stuff. Then this year I got a call. The guy's still in the morg and the family's like, I'm over there and they're ready to list the house and he's they haven't even taken him out of the morg yet. And then I just talked to someone last week and again, I'm not gonna say which family member it was, but the person isn't even dead yet.
>> What?
>> And they're and they're tell Yeah. Yeah.
So, it's like it's the urgency for like doing these estates now is like cuz people need the money, right? And and it's not that they need the money to buy the house themselves. like in certain situations it was they need the money cuz they're going to give it to their kids. So it's like the grandkids of the people that are dead like they're like wow I got to get these kids to buy a house. So yeah, it used to be like I used to think it was like wow these like this person's only been dead for 2 weeks and now it's like the person's not even dead yet and they're calling me. I'm just like this is the world like but it's like the environment you know like when people are starving like and we're seeing this and I I was watching the uh the mainstream fake news there and they were saying like like well like with the polling like environment is going down the list and it's like yeah when people are desperate and starving for whatever not just starving for food starving for a house well there goes the morals there goes the environment there goes the deaths and the pity and the sorrow and the grieving and you got to focus on surviving yourself and this is what's happening. So yeah, it's crazy and this is like true. Like I'm not making I wish I was making this up. Like how do you make that up? This is what's happening.
>> Yeah, I believe it. I mean, yeah, with the poll as well, it makes perfect sense. More and more people are just dependent on like inheritance for retirement. I mean, I don't know how it's all going to work out because everybody's going to be mortgaging off their home equity in the future. Like it just everything is debt, debt, debt, debt. It doesn't matter what it is. Oh yeah. And go ahead.
>> Sorry. I had I had one more. I had an estate sale uh locally and like these people are like in their 80s like mid80s and they you know I'm selling the house and people people were looking at the house and you know oh you know this and that. I'm like no these people had two mortgages on the house when they died like in their 86 or something right?
It's like so this is the reality and I guess again I I haven't read the data myself but I've heard this many times like the biggest or the number one demographic that are taking out new mortgages or refinances I think it is are the senior citizens in Canada and probably elsewhere in the world because they need it to live like life's expensive and then I you look at like you said earlier with the refinances this year for the 2021 refinances and they were at 1.59 to 1.99% and now they're over 4% cuz they're not getting those introductory les less than 20% down insured mortgage rates numbers. So you have that and then you have the gasoline that's create making everything more expensive. There's an extra few hundred bucks or $200 to $300 a month for people. So it's like yeah this this life has got really expensive and I'm sure that's going to show up in the inflation numbers with the food and everything real soon. It's already starting to show up but definitely we're going to see it show up. Uh so the rates they're not going to go down either. So, it's yeah, it's going to be a tough tough and this is again this is I always talk about the cycle. This is all part of the cycle that >> creates this environment and we're like getting into the nitty-gritty like people who think we've reached the bottom and it's we're coming out of this recession like we haven't even formally had a recession. This is like getting into the interesting times right now and this is where you're going to see the fireworks and you're still seeing bankruptcy. I just read about one in Vancouver, some developer insolveny or whatever on a big building and some pension fund or something's involved and they hund and something million dollars in this. So you're seeing all sorts of stuff and you're going to see more and more uh we had a little break I think for for the last 6 months or to a year but it's there's more coming. Well, all this private credit stuff has been coming out as well over the past year since we talked before and like a lot of that has invested in multif family, in real estate, in condos, things like that. And that's how these pension funds end up getting caught up in the mess as well. And like there is so much money invested in private credit. And there are so many private equity companies like Black Rockck and Blackstone that just have all these private credit funds and investing in AI and it's like is AI going to make money? And then there's all that that's happening too. And that's like a giant credit bubble which is inflated on top of another credit bubble. And it's just like it's just completely insane. But these pension funds, they're constantly being pushed out on the risk curve because they they're trying to make like high returns obviously for the pensioners and the people who are ultimately buying the fund. But the reality is when like interest rates are lower, like artificially low like they are in Canada, then that just forces them to go and look at more risky things cuz they need to still get those returns. And have you seen like I mean the amount of uh in Toronto the amount of not multif family purpose-built rentals that are coming online now like is completely insane. And wasn't a lot of that government subsidized as well?
>> Yeah. from the uh the CHC MLI select program where they pretty much stole the money from the most vulnerable Canadians or home buying Canadians and they just filtered it back into the government and into their own programs. And I actually looked at the the mortgage insurance premiums went up right back in 2015 or 2016. I can't remember the last time they went up, but they went from like 3.15% then they went up to 3.65 65 and then it went up to 4% for a minimum down payment buyer. Um, and not just first-time buyers, but just a buyer in general. So, you're paying you're you're putting your 5% down and the government's taking the most from you.
CHC has made record profits and they've issued those profits back $4 billion over $4 billion back to the government as dividends so the government can waste it on whatever programs and spending and schemes they want. So like that that the reason they increased those premiums was to hedge themselves against a rise in defaults in payouts that they would have and they never had it because the of course the government kept uh rates so low and kept this Ponzi scheme going for so long and it's all you know like you said it's all artificially uh created.
Yeah. So now we have the the money they're take they're literally this is where the money comes from. How is how is CHC funded? They're not funded directly from the government. are funded from their insurance premiums and there again those insurance premiums the purpose of them is to hedge themselves against defaults and pay for and payouts for those people who have defaulted this never happened so they just take all the money and then they created these new things so now you're paying into CHC for this they're loaning out the money and using that for leverage against these multifamily units and these purpose-built rentals and now we're seeing that and they've al they've also cut back on the criteria because it was you know they had a certain standard or a certain lending limit for if you meet so much uh they get it's a point system right where you have you know so many points for so many units at or below the the rental average or whatever based on income median incomes. They then had this criteria and they'll say okay you can have a 50-year mortgage at this much and this is you get this much money.
They changed that uh six months ago and everyone a lot of people were pissed off because they had based their their projects on this and they of course pulled the rug on a bunch of those people. So yeah, it's like the CHC is it's it's just another tax collection entity for the government. And again, we've seen it. You can look it up. Over $4 billion has gone back in dividends to the federal government from the most vulnerable Canadians buying homes, which is the people with less than 5% or 5% down, less than 20% down, which is again, this is not the purpose of that program. But again, this is why they increase premiums. They said it was for one reason, but they used the money for a different reason to fund their spending habits.
>> I absolutely hate the CHC. And now you got me started on the CMHC rant, but like I mean the CHC is such a disgusting organization because what people don't realize is like if that entity didn't exist. In fact, the whole mortgage insurance industry I think should be totally banned. Like I don't even know why that exists because basically you're just putting this middleman in place.
It's like it's exactly like the private credit that's going on. It's exactly the same. Basically the banks they lend to entities that lend to the private credit. And it's a similar thing with the CHC. Like the CHC is the protector in the middle when they're not really the protector. I mean, they wouldn't even have enough money to cover massive losses and they would just throw it to the banks anyway. I've spoke to people who work at the CMHC and they say the same thing. Like in a lot of cases, claims are denied anyways. Like it's not as simple as the banks probably think that in a mass default event, they would just be able to claim all these loans back from the CHC. And you even see that in the spread on the mortgage rates like with certain banks. I don't know if it's the same now, but it certainly was a few years ago. Like the insured rate was less than the uninsured, but you're putting more down. Yeah. So, you're putting more money down, you're like increasing your equity state, but because somebody with CHC insurance has got like you can literally see the moral hazard with that spread right there.
>> When I first started real estate, you know, in the first few years, you're learning the ropes, right? I didn't know I didn't I wasn't a business graduate or a CHC expert. And I remember somebody called for an appraiser and like these people had a big down payment 25% or 20% and they appraised I said why would they get an appraiser for these people and not for these people who put like nothing down like they actually had a nothing down program like the the bank would give you back your 5% loan right or they would loan you the money like they had a credit line option anyway you could put nothing down and there's no appraisal and it's like the deal's done in like 2 days with the bank like I'm like and then these people they got 20% down they got like a big chunk chunk of money and they're sending in the appraiser and they're holding up the deal. I'm like, "Why are you holding up the deal?" And I didn't understand it at first. I'm like, "They're like, "Well, that one's not insured and this one's insured." I'm like, "So the and and then the the the CHC insured one. They just put it used to be called Emily the system. They just oh, we just put the address in and it spits it out as a number and that's that's all good. We don't need an appraisal." I'm like, "So you guys like have 20% down and you need all this extra work." And people with nothing down, you just put it in the computer and it spits out a number and you just sign off on the deal. And that's what they do, right? And um like as you said, sometimes they don't pay out. But this is the problem with the insured mortgages, but they're taking like the the reason I'm talking about this is I just did a deal with someone and they were not a first-time buyer.
They were a second uh time buyer and they had been out of the market for 15 years or so. And they had their 5% down.
And like I'm just so angry that and these are good people like their whole after closing cost, they have nothing down on the house. Nothing. And the government says, "Well, because you got nothing down now, like we need to make sure this is insured properly, this mortgage, and you know, you're high risk." It's like, and you know, the ones that I see default the most were the speculators that took their 20% from their existing homes from North Carolina and did it like and didn't have any mortgage insurance. Those are the highest risk in my opinion. But, you know, they use the algorithm say, "Well, statistically speaking, these ones are the highest risk." But also at the same time, if you took the extra time, and we have a chart actually we might show it today about the time to save up your down payment, the months needed, if you took that extra time to do that, like you could be spending more because prices went up, especially in the last decade or last 15 years before the 2022 peak. Can you imagine you take an extra 5 years or four years to to save up your extra down payment to so you don't get hit with the CHC and now the the house prices have have gone up 40 50%. like what was the purpose of it? Of course, like so yeah, they punish they punish the lowest income, most vulnerable homeowners and they reward the other ones and it's just yeah that it's it's a flawed system and they'll say, well, they're more, you know, susceptible to defaulting and whatever else. Well, obviously they're more susceptible when they look at their mortgage statement and they have zero equity. Like they're like, oh, I'm I'm not going to pay for this house anymore. But if they actually had some equity in the house, they probably would be less prone to defaulting. So anyway, that's that's it's all BS with their system. Yeah. So here we have the um the chart that we were talking about. And this one here is the months. Yeah. The months to save.
And in 2005 there, it took less than 100 months to save your down payment. I think what is it? Or 10% savings and for the average down payment on the average Canadian house. And now look well look at what it got up to. It was over over double that in 2022 at the peak there.
And we're still what 160 170 months. So it's still 70 80% higher 70% higher at least than it was back 20 years ago. And so now this is a reflection of lower wages, higher house prices. And it's like yeah, this is the fun. This is like the price to income ratio, right? To the home price to income ratio. This is very similar where now it's your how long it takes you to save your down payment. But this was a cool metric that I just actually just before we got on here, I made this chart um based on the data on the national this is national data here.
And then we have the purchasing power one. If you click on the purchasing power there. Yeah. So this is like the reverse. This is how much your dollar buys, right? And at in 2005 it starts at zero, right? Since 2005, you've lost 193.7% of your purchasing power on a house. And we put into dollar terms. You don't have to click on that chart cuz it confuses people. But $1 of home equity is now worth 34, right? Which is works out equates to uh a decay of 194% almost of your purchasing power on a house. And look at one point it was 200 over 250% decay in your purchasing power on a house from 2000. We're not even talking from 1950 here. We're talking from 2005.
So, it's the your the value of your dollar compared to housing has really has decayed so significantly. And this is why people aren't are priced out of the market. And this is why I'm wearing I'm wearing my priced out shirt here.
Let's see. Priced out. Like this is it.
Like this is this is I don't know how long I'm going to have to wear this for.
Hopefully, you know, I can rip this up one day. But um and it's it's funny when you look at forget about house prices.
Look at what your your dollar actually buys you or look at to the purchasing power compared to housing. This is compared to housing specifically. And it's pretty much just the inverse of the the housing data, right? The average price. But yeah, it's it's it's not good. And um and it's it's stopped, but it hasn't turned around. Like it's it's just trading sideways now. It did turn around from the peak, but but after that, it's been years and it's just been trending sideways. So, we need to get some of that purchasing power back. Now, this thankfully isn't reflected with the wage index in there because that would probably be even worse in my opinion.
But yeah, it's it's bad. you you you've this is how bad you've been ripped off on housing and the and your purchasing power of a house from 2005.
>> So, John, you were talking about borrowed down payments.
Well, believe it or not, there is a private mortgage insurer in Canada that offers a Flex 95 advantage program. The Flex 95 advantage program offers a flexible down payment option for borrowers with a strong credit history.
The borrower may access 5% equity from sources not covered in our down payment advantage program. So basically you can borrow the down payment and yeah 105% of the house you'll owe.
>> Yeah, they're okay with it just as long as you have a strong credit. I I mean that is anyway. Like credit scores don't really mean anything. I mean people have bad credit scores who don't have credit. I mean, that doesn't mean that they're high risk to default on loans.
>> Those programs were fine when like the market was like increasing a little bit year-over-year when prices are declining and you're offering 105% financing essentially on a house. It's just that's terrible. And you know what? I'm starting to see their name, I'm pretty sure, pop up more and more on my power of sale data that I that I which is which is and I just posted a chart on X which it is higher than it has been in since 2024 2023 and it's up 70% over last May and 292% from 2 years ago. So like the the power of sale and the bankruptcies or the the foreclosures, whatever you want to call them, on Ontario real estate specifically, this tracks is not slowing down. Like it's keeps going up. So we're not we're not near the bottom. Like no data says we're near the bottom.
>> Yeah. So I guess like a lot of people are still losing their home. And is it mostly I guess you don't even know, but is it a lot of private lenders that they're losing their homes to right now?
So it's more like your BC lenders that people are losing homes to.
>> Good question. So I started that whatever you can see on the chart there was end of 2023 2024. I can't even see it's too dark but yeah. So and I did in the first year or so I did that breakdown. I I have an old chart and it was you know whatever percent it was of private versus big banks and there's like 10 big banks in Canada or 10 that go on the CBA. There's six big banks but there's 10 on the on the central bankers association that reports the mortgage arars and then the next year I did it and that percentage had increased.
Initially it was mostly private lenders and some mortgage investment corporations and credit unions and stuff like that. Then it has had increased.
Now when I look I'm going to do an updated one but the problem is I have to go through them all individually and like calculate how many big banks like I can probably get AI to do it but it's like I tried and it was sketchy by the way you export the data and stuff. But regardless, I am seeing like lists of big banks because I organize them by name, right? And I can just see like all of like certain big bank like and they're growing. Those are growing. Now the the number overall has grown of power of sales, but they are gaining market share for sure. The big banks and the insurers are also gaining market.
Now the insurers are very still very low. The insurers come later on in the game and what happens of course is the bank will, you know, the insurer just doesn't take the property and try to sell it. The bank has to do their job, try to recover their money. When the bank can't recover their money, I don't know what the threshold is. Then after they've attempted, they give it to the insurer and the insurer sells it and takes the loss and pays out the bank everything that they owed. So maybe a little uh they have a deduct. I hope they have a deductible. The banks >> Wow. Yeah. and they have to make a claim and it's whether that claim gets accepted as well cuz it's like did the bank do the due diligence. I mean, isn't it funny when you look at Bmpton? Like Bmpton, obviously we were calling out Bmpton way, way way way, way back, like the amount of mortgage fraud going on there, and then CBC Marketplace covered it, I think like a year after. We were talking about it. And basically now Bmpton is like the worst housing market or the worst price declines, one of the worst in the GTA, if not the worst. And it's like almost like nobody saw this coming. And it's like guys, I mean the amount of mortgage fraud that was going on there because like I mean whichever way you spin it when you've got like loads of people coming into the country who don't really understand the system.
They've only just moved like they're open to being took advantage of and maybe a lot of those people wanted to take advantage as well, but you know they're just open to it. And then like you got all these people from a culture that specifically like there is a lot of sketchy dealings and scams like in India. That's just a fact. It's what it is. Yeah. Bmpton is absolutely crazy.
What do you think about Bmpton?
>> Yeah. Well, there was like they caught them red-handed and they did it with the mortgages uh with realtors and mortgages. I remember I'm going to revert to CBC Marketplace and it's probably one of the only shows I would watch from that organization, but it's got some interesting stuff. And they they did that and like every one of them was like, "No, no, no. Don't worry about your documents. We'll take care of that.
Don't worry about your board. Don't worry about your income." You know, and like everyone they talked to, and it was the same with the driver's licenses, too, right? They're like, "Yeah, just 300 bucks." They're like, "Well, do I got to take like the like the Where's the course? No, don't worry about the course. Just give us the money and you know, we'll say you did the course." And you know what the the government's complicit because the government hasn't done anything like you know they have a solution. and Ron Butler there has been, you know, told them the solution has been in the committees and the government's like, well, you know, we got to look at this more. And it's like, no, you have a simple solution to to take care of the fraud or to keep people honest with, you know, linking your your actual income, your your government income, your T4 or whatever it is, a box on your T1, T4 to your notice of assessment, whatever it is. They have the solution and the government just doesn't want to do it because they know.
I think the government knows, and I was just thinking about this the other day, they know this is going to hurt the real estate market even more. So, they're like, "Yeah, let's put this off until like 2028 or we can drag this out because we need these fake mortgages to keep this keep the real estate market from crashing." Honestly, I think this is what's going on behind the scenes right
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