Altcoin season typically occurs when Bitcoin stabilizes at high prices and capital flows into alternative cryptocurrencies, but this rally may be a late-stage phenomenon or a bull trap before a market correction; experienced traders should avoid chasing pumps and instead accumulate solid projects during market weakness, as speculative small-cap projects often experience extreme volatility with rapid price drops after short-lived rallies.
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Deep Dive
Bitcoin at $90K… Is Altcoin Season Finally Here?Added:
[snorts] >> Hey, hey, hey. Welcome, guys. Happy Sunday.
Hope you're having a good weekend. I hope you're doing well.
Today, we are going to talk about Bitcoin as it is holding above 80K very strongly again. We're seeing an altcoin rally and the right question right now is are we about to enter the real altcoin season that we've been waiting for?
Or is this just another fake out before a major correction? We're going to look at some of the data, the numbers, and see what they are telling us.
In the meantime, what do we see? Let's see who do we have in today.
Hope you can see the comments popping up as well. Hi, YKH. Good to see you.
Fernando.
Great to see you.
Hope you're having a good weekend.
Already up on my OPG. Thanks, Sara.
Yeah, we'll talk about the altcoins as well and the projects that we bought, what we are holding, and how we already managed to make more than 10x over the past month. We'll talk about all of these things.
So, first, let's start with something interesting.
I don't know if you've seen the news, but couple of days ago at Consensus, Eric Trump stood on stage and basically said what Wall Street spent years pretending could never happen.
Bitcoin isn't being ignored anymore.
It's now being absorbed into the system.
And honestly, whether you love the Trump family or you hate them, politically, that's not really the important part here. The important part is this.
The same institutions that spent years, you know, attacking Bitcoin are now quietly building around it.
People called it a fraud.
Larry Fink called it money laundering.
Major banks mocked crypto publicly while most people were still afraid to even touch it.
Now, as you know, BlackRock has one of the biggest Bitcoin ETFs in the world.
JP Morgan also offers Bitcoin exposure, and banks are integrating crypto infrastructure behind the scenes. So, what is happening with Bitcoin is not a theory anymore.
That's reality. And the big question is, why did they suddenly change? Obviously, everyone would >> [laughter] >> ask themselves this question. Uh they they changed because institutions don't just reverse because of nothing, as you know. They reverse when they realize the opportunity is too big to actually ignore.
And that is the real story. And now Eric Trump at this consensus he made a massive prediction which I don't know what you guys think about it, but he said that um Bitcoin will be around $1 million.
Uh he made this call and said this is the case by 2030 2031. This is his prediction. To be honest, this sounds a little bit insane and I personally don't think it is possible for it to happen that quickly. Bitcoin to $1 million.
But if you think about it, when you actually break down the numbers, it becomes a little bit more interesting and somehow more realistic because to be honest, uh for Bitcoin to be at $1 million uh for um one coin, it needs around uh $21 trillion market cap.
And if you look at other assets, gold is already above that valuation as you can see over here, $31 trillion.
Global real estate sitting at around above $600 trillion. US equities above $50 trillion.
So, honestly, um the question here we need to ask ourselves, can Bitcoin become one of them? And I personally think so. It is very possible. And why? Because of three structural shifts that are happening right now. The first one, >> [clears throat] >> Sebas, good to see you here.
Happy to see you, too.
Why is it possible? Because um the first one is supply compression. The amount of Bitcoin actually available for sale keeps shrinking every time. Companies like Strategy keep buying. Governments are holding reserves. Long-term holders are not selling. And after the halving only around 450 new Bitcoin enters circulation daily.
Which is very tiny to be honest.
That's one reason.
The second reason is the wealth transfer.
Now over a hundred trillion dollars is expected to move from older generations to millennials and Gen Z over the next couple of decades and young investors to be honest think very differently about money and than previous generations. A lot of young people trust Bitcoin more than traditional finance and that's a massive long-term trend that we can't really ignore if we have to be honest.
And third Bitcoin is becoming infrastructure. This is the important part here because Bitcoin we now have Bitcoin backed loans. We have Bitcoin backed mortgages.
We have we can use Bitcoin as a collateral without selling.
Cross-border transfers, financial access outside traditional banking systems. So this is very important. So Bitcoin changes from you know just speculative asset into something that people can actually use.
And that's a completely different valuation model that we have.
Now obviously I want to say here hi Willard Thomas.
Good to see you. Good to see you here. I know you recently joined Discord so I'm very happy to to see on my Discord, see you on my live streams, under my videos.
That's great.
Now obviously none of this guarantees Bitcoin you know reaching one million dollars in 2030 2031. Anyone promising you certainty is lying to you. I can tell you this. There will be obviously crashes, there will be pullbacks, there will be volatility but the direction of institutional adoption is becoming harder and harder to deny.
The people who are laughing at Bitcoin are now building products around it.
That's a very big signal.
>> [snorts] >> Now, let me know why we are continuing.
Do you guys believe Bitcoin will reach 1 million dollars eventually, or do you think this this is just some kind of big institutional hype cycle ever created?
Let me know what you think in the comments below. Drop your thoughts in the chat.
Now, this week is very important for crypto.
On May 14th, which is just 4 days away from now, we have the Senate Committee votes on the Clarity Act. As we As we know, the Clarity Act is very important for crypto because this will make crypto a little bit more regulated, more trustworthy. Um there will be votes on this coming this week. We also have uh Powell's Fed chair term wrapping up on 15th of May.
You also have Kevin Warsh stepping in potentially, which is pro-crypto. He's taking over on 16th of May. So, really this week could turn out to be a major uh turning point for crypto and Bitcoin.
We either go to mid-80s or we we just crash back to the 70s.
And now I'll show you some analysis over here.
I think it will reach a million. I think it will reach Honestly, a million sounds a little bit too optimistic.
And I definitely think it will take longer than, I know, 2030 2031. But everything is possible. I mean, the the pace at which things are moving in today's world, I I also think it might be a possibility.
Now, looking at this chart, the the daily chart for Bitcoin. What just happened over here? We've been talking about this this channel, this flag for some time now. We went up here and we retraced down upon the news between Iran and the US. Iran basically rejected the terms that and the conditions of the US.
And a point on the release of the news, we had this pull back to the 79.
Okay, but now as you can see, Bitcoin has started again moving back up. And what I can tell you, what I see in the short term is that we have this CME gap over here between 84 and 83K.
So, in my opinion, Bitcoin would go up to fill in this gap before it starts going down. And even if you look at Kälshi uh and the predictions, uh already there is a big percentage, more than 50% are betting on Bitcoin reaching 85K this month.
Usually these predictions turn out to be right because we also have insiders trading and betting.
So, usually these turn out to be quite good and quite right. It's worth keeping an eye on those.
And basically we have two important price zones above and below the current level.
Uh this is where a lot of traders' orders and stop losses are concentrated.
And if I show you the liquidation heat map, just another another observation and something for you to to keep an eye on in the upcoming weeks.
So, we said there are two key zones, 83 from 83 to 85. A lot of buy orders and short stop losses, liquidations, liquidity, plus this CME gap over here.
So, Bitcoin could definitely move up to here to fill it. On the lower side, you have it over here, down here, another CME gap. So, Bitcoin could also drop to the uh this lower side to to trigger liquidations over there.
If you will look at the this liquidation heat map from CoinGlass, this is basically showing you where leveraged traders are likely to get liquidated if Bitcoin moves either up or down. And how to read it is very important for traders in particular. The chart, as you can see, is centered around the current price, which is 80,730.
This dashed red line is basically your current price.
And you have the two sides, the the uh the left side, which is here in red, this is showing you the price levels below the current price. And you have the green side, which is obviously the above the current price. It estimates how much leveraged money would be forcibly liquidated if Bitcoin reached those price levels that you see on the bottom.
The red area is the long liquidations. Basically, these are traders who are longing Bitcoin using leverage. So, if price falls to 76, 73, 74, this is the amount of uh traders with long positions that would get liquidated. So, a sharp drop can trigger a lot of um cascade sell pressure. And then, on the green side, you have short liquidations. These are traders who are shorting Bitcoin, and their stop losses are sitting at uh as you can see, pretty big spike over here at 83, 84.
These are short traders, short shorting Bitcoin with leverage.
So, if price rises, these positions will get liquidated.
So, obviously, a sharp move to the upside can trigger a short squeeze.
And you have those um vertical bars that you see over here.
These those spikes showing how showing specific liquidation clusters.
And you have pretty big ones at what is that? 83,600.
So, if uh Bitcoin hits 83 K, a lot of people shorting Bitcoin will get hurt.
You have pretty big clusters over there.
And uh similarly on this side, you have pretty big one over here at 75,700, which means that if Bitcoin goes up, um this is the amount of you see how many 481 Bitcoin will get liquidated.
So, what we can see from just looking at this that there more short liquidations above price. You can see the green side is rising much sharper and much much more compared to the to the red side.
This is at 800. This is more than uh 10,000 on this side. So, this is just telling us that many traders are shorting Bitcoin right now. Many more than those who are longing it. So, if we move to the upside, we can trigger big short squeeze.
And that is usually bullish pressure fuel for upward volatility.
So, yeah, traders looking at this would say there is more upside liquidation fuel than downside fuel right now. And if we in fact see Bitcoin holding above 80 K and even moving upwards towards 83, 84, uh to be honest, we'll see another big leg for the altcoins. And let's talk about the altcoins right now.
Because we are seeing them having pretty pretty good runs. And we on this court added four new projects over the last 2 weeks.
If you guys are following or if you're on my Discord, you would have seen we bought Billions Network. We bought Billions Network.
Um let me go to the 4-hour chart.
We or even on the hourly chart. My buy price for Bills was 0.36 down here.
It's already up like 4x.
I sold my position earlier at around uh 0.90, but it keeps climbing up and I know people on my Discord are still holding it, so it's great making 4x 400% profit during uh this kind of late stage of a um bullish market or initial stage of a bear market is is pretty good, I would say.
And [snorts] we also added another project.
Um that was far Gross.
Gross was another um addition that we made down here. And you see those big big spikes that we get.
And we already managed to make some good profits. And there are two more projects which we are waiting to to take profits from. Uh I'm sure their their time will come, but in general we see the altcoins having pretty good runs. We can see now on on Crypto Bubbles.
I'm sure your projects are also doing very well.
And the general observation that I have to be honest is that I see projects with no utility, no fundamentals, the small market cap projects doing the biggest returns right now and uh skyrocketing.
So for me this is sort of sign of a late cycle, late altcoin season if we call it like this. This is the stage where you get these small projects without any fundamentals, without any utility skyrocketing.
But, um I also see some solid projects like Arrow, Tao, Sui. You can see one of the biggest bubbles here is in fact Sui. And I've been telling you, don't fade Sui, don't ignore it. For me, Sui would be one of the top performing projects moving forward.
I see it competing with XRP, competing with Cardano, competing with Solana even if you wish.
Sui, Uniswap, Kite. Kite has been on my watch list. It's again an AI project.
Casper. Casper is trying to also move up, which is great to see. I know a lot of you are holding Casper as well.
But, I would say if you now hear from influencers or people in the space telling you that this is your last chance, you're going to miss your opportunity, and altcoin season is loading up.
Uh this is not my opinion.
Unfortunately, I I'm more bearish rather than bullish, and I think this is some kind of a fakeout that we are seeing right now, or the so-called um trap over here. I personally think we're going to move to the downside.
Maybe we we have another bullish leg up depending on the news that are upcoming, on how the war uh develops, and when that ends. But, for me, this is some kind of an early stage of a bear market.
I would say a late late stage of an altcoin season where you get these small market cap projects pumping because to be honest, we didn't get any altcoin season earlier. We saw the run for Bitcoin up to 126K.
Altcoins barely moved.
And maybe this is the stage where we are getting this this move for the altcoins.
But um I would say what I recommended as well to my Discord members, don't jump on the strength right now. This is not going to be your last opportunity. The market doesn't doesn't move only up.
We're going to have a pullback at least to the 70s. We might not go down to the 50s as people are still claiming even 40s, 30s, but we definitely going to get a pullback to the 60s where you can uh start this year.
Maybe 65 as well, even 70.
So, don't think this is your last chance and buy now. Because what is happening in the market right now, we see people again buying every dip heavily thinking that this is the last chance, the altcoin season is starting, or the bull market is starting, the bear market is over.
But this is not the case, really. I personally don't think that is obviously we'll see.
100 people, 101 opinions in the space.
This is just my own opinion.
I'm prepared to head more to the downside. And based on that, I've established my accumulation strategy, which is on Discord.
By the way, if you want to join us on Discord and catch the other two trade projects that we bought, and there's another one on my watch list that I'll be adding this week, you can join us on Discord. You'll find link under any video that I post, under this live stream, and I'll be very happy to welcome you.
So, in general, this is what we see. And you have examples of this because this is what happens uh in a bear market. You get projects like Siren that pump 500%.
Let's go on CoinMarketCap here, it would be easy. They pump 500%, 600%, and then you see them crashing to the downside like 99%. You had an example with because people are just not confident in this small rally, the big players.
If this was a bull market, you know, nobody would dump their project at the start of a bull market. It makes sense, right? But we are in a bear market.
These are some short-lived rallies that we see.
And this is, for example, one of the projects which really went to $10. Now, it's sitting at 76 cents. You have Siren, similar.
Similar thing happened to Siren. Now, it's kind of trying to to push back up, but I wouldn't trust it.
You had another one which you did the same, RAVE.
Really, there are thousands of examples.
And this is what happens usually. Look at this, 90% drop.
This is what happens in a in a bear market situation. Uh they're short-lived. Everyone is in a hurry. Uh retail investors are usually in a hurry to know buy every single dip thinking that this is the last opportunity, last chance, whereas experienced investors, traders, big players, they dump pretty quickly on you because they know this is something short-lived.
But anyway, if you obviously solid projects, you can keep accumulating, but I always recommend accumulating on weakness, not Now it's we pumped 11%.
You think it's now just going to go straight to $10? No, it would come back maybe to 90, to 80. Why run to chase the red the the green candles? I'd rather buy on a red candle.
Good analysis, Sara. Thank you. Thanks.
Appreciate it.
What are you guys most bullish on? Did you manage to make good profits? Really, we on this court, as I told you, we bought billions billions network, which has been actually trending for I don't know how many days and already 4x.
I told you we also bought Pros, another great project.
Just don't make the mistake to rush into into green candles and massive increases.
Because really the small market cap projects, which are more speculative, are in fact doing good numbers right now.
You're selling C? Oh, no.
Really, you're going to sell C?
I told you C would be one of the projects to recover immediately and the highest on on any kind of pumps. C would be the outperformer and you can see that in the in the numbers.
Let's see on the weekly.
Interesting.
Zcash is doing very well.
Ondo had a great run. I know somebody asked me about Ondo. Ondo is also a great project.
ICP, which I don't like, is also doing pretty well for the week. Ton, another solid project. Ton, amazing performance, 80%.
But now what is happening, you know, this is again attracting a lot of retail investors. They see projects pumping, they come back into the market or even those who escaped, who ran away, they're coming back now, rushing to buy, then on the next dip, once we go back to the 70s or even 60s, again everyone would be crying because they bought expensive, they bought high.
This is the cycle, unfortunately. So, if you have the mindset and stick around for long enough to understand how it works, take advantage of the low prices, you will become profitable. But the problem is that just everyone jumps on the green candles, on the big pumps.
Like when you see a project 80% now everyone is rushing to buy TON.
And again then TON will come back to lower prices and people will start crying that they bought high. This is always the the cycle of retail investors and the mindset which is pretty unfortunate because people then call crypto scam, they run away and some never come back.
Others come back at high prices, buy again and it's just the cycle repeating over and over again.
I like Ondo.
I don't hold it though.
Ina is a good one.
Let's see on the second.
Lab, I feel is another scamming project.
Be careful. [clears throat] Gala Be careful especially with meme coins.
If you load now on solid projects like let's say Sui, even though they they're pumping, it's not so bad. It's not as bad as buying a meme coin like Troll which already did um 100% in a day. Buying this is like you're killing your yourself and your portfolio.
Okay.
What else guys? What are you holding or are you taking profits right now or are you buying? What are you really doing?
Let me know what you're doing in the comments.
Would be interesting to hear from you.
I'm personally buying but I'm not buying the solid projects. I'm more playing on speculative plays which I in fact bought weeks ago. And now I am I'm either taking profits or I have one or two which are on my watch list and I'm planning to I'm waiting to snipe for the right entry to buy those.
You'll see the the alerts on Discord as soon as I I find that perfect entry. I would you guys inform you for those who are on Discord. I might post that on YouTube as well in the comments. Hi Sarah. Hi Yahiya. Good to see you.
I think we almost came to to an end of this live stream but you can obviously watch the the replay.
In a nutshell, my opinion is that we are not starting an altcoin season. This is sort of a final stage of of an altcoin season if we call it or a bull market and initial stage of a bear market. This is my opinion. This is how I see. In short term, I see Bitcoin even reclaiming the 85 86k before we we start moving to the downside.
Obviously, there are a lot of conditions here. We going to see what's going to happen with the Clarity Act this week with Kevin Warsh who is pro-crypto.
Um the wrap-up of Powell as Fed chair as well.
And um yeah, most important is the war.
How the war unbounds, when that ends, what would be the outcome.
This can change a lot.
Thanks for the effort. It's good to see you, Dr. Aryan.
Good to see you.
I know you're also in my Discord, one of my moderators over there.
Oh, okay. Then um enjoy the rest of the weekend.
Enjoy your Sunday and I'll see you again throughout the week for another live stream, another video. If you're on my Discord, we going to chat later. Buy more projects, sell, research, laugh, and many other tips.
Thank you so much for being here. Thanks for your time. And I'll see you again soon.
Thank you.
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