Sommi effectively deconstructs the retail investor's fallacy, proving that true market edge comes from psychological discipline rather than chasing technical indicators. It is a necessary reality check for those mistaking market noise for actionable signals.
Deep Dive
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Deep Dive
🔴 Why Everyone Suddenly QUITAdded:
Many crypto influencers have actually left crypto. That's right, baby dolls.
Could this be an anti-top signal for us as we navigate these uncertain crypto times? I have been waiting a long ass time with you. Five plus years to get out of this hell hole. Many large influencers have left crypto friends and they've pivoted out. Miles Deutsch, he has moved to AI. So Miles, he used to be on Cryptobanter, the Cryptobanter show, Miles. And so he's obviously grown a a large large following. He makes a lot of analysis, you know, like reports about what's going on in crypto. And you know, I respect everyone's hustle. It's just that there's no edge in them because they're always descriptive of what's happening now. And describing what's happening now, especially in crypto, it's not enough to make money. You have to understand where the market's going in the future. And by the way, when I say understand, it's still a punt. I don't know. I mean, I can try to hope and guess. I mean, fence, even I'll give you a good example.
Justin's son, who he has the the one of the worst reputations in crypto. Justin was thinking about stable coins in literally 2020 and 2021. All right, he was thinking about stable coins here back when everybody was thinking about DeFi. So actually stable coins are part of DeFi. Okay, it's just the boring part.
So he was thinking about DeFi, stable coins, stable coin super cycle and everybody else was thinking about a chain link, unis swap, dexes and it's all paid off right now, hasn't it?
Because Tron has eventually gone up. But during this period of time, it didn't look like he was really a visionary for that, did it? So that's another example of someone who had the vision, but nobody believed him. Nobody believed him. I mean, even Mike Novagrats, he made a joke in one of the interviews.
He's like, "If it go back in time, I wish somebody told me to back Justin's son." He says, "Congratulations, Justin, for doing what you do." Like, nobody saw that coming. Pretty much saying that, right? So, that's that's a nice diplomatic Mike Novagrat way to say, "Hey, Justin, we know you're a massive scammer. We don't know how you climbed up the chart and took on Donald Trump family and and had the vision of stable coin super cycle and defeated everyone.
We don't know how you did it, but well done. Just showing you how random [laughter] it is. It is funny just to see him be being able to do that. Okay, so that's why friends um if you're looking for information and reports about what's going now. I'll be honest, it's very it's very descriptive and you know all the stuff gets priced in and it makes it even more tougher in crypto because you are trying to look at where the market's going. You know, go to where the park is going which makes it even more insanely difficult because crypto is digital network effects. You know, in countries and cities and real estate, it's analog network effects. As in when people go to a city, they're not leaving tomorrow.
They're not leaving next year. They're going to go to a city. They have children. Yeah. They get a dog. They get a duck. They go to the school there. You get it? They're not leaving in like decades. That's why when you're betting on real estate and these trends, it's very easy to go with momentum because they're super long. With crypto though, totally different story. I mean, you can write a whole essay about what's going on with Hyperlquid today and then they get mogged next month. Literally next month that could happen. Like if the CME says, "Hey, we're just going to do Hyperlid's model. Goodbye." And we're going to make it cheaper. We're actually going to suck them out, you know? So, suck them out in a familyfriendly way.
You get it why it's very very tough. But also, if you get it correct, it's really good because you're buying it super cheap and it can happen quite fast. But we've been saying that for 5 years.
Totally self-aware. Also friends uh Anthony Pompiano he has pivoted to stocks for dumping and he said altcoins are never coming back. So obviously everyone saw this friends uh Anthony Pompiano comes out of the woodworks and he says most of the crypto industry is dead and it's never coming back.
Eventually people will realize it. And remember when he came when he came and he wrote this uh the context I'm giving you is he said forget crypto there's just bitcoin and stable coins. You don't need anything else. Now, where's he actually coming from? All right, he's thinking stable coins are short-term store of value and Bitcoin is long-term store of value. So, Bitcoin is like 10 years, okay? And then stable coins are like 0.5.
Okay, so that's his timeline.
All right, that's pretty much it. He goes, you just need the short end and you just need the long end for storing wealth. But what about everything else in between? What about one year, two year, 5 years? What about privacy?
What about removing an admin key? What about swaps and NFTTS, gaming, metaverse? What about DeFi? Real DeFi.
What about even semi?
What about governance tokens? Maybe they come back. I don't know. Just telling you there's a lot of other space to fill. When you're a Bitcoin maxi, you can't see any of that cuz you give all of this a value of zero.
So, it is interesting how everybody has now concluded that all of these old coins are trash after they've been going down for 5 years. So, you got to tell me they're trash 5 years ago. Dude, don't tell me they're trash after they've gone down for 5 years. Okay? You can tell me anything you want, but that's just adding to the probability that we're dealing with anti-top signals. Uh Ben Copen as well. Ben Copen right here.
Ben Copen as well pivoted to selling Bitcoin and buying metals, real estate, stocks. So just have there's a lot of influencers totally just they just blah.
It's just it's interesting to just see them all vomited out. They're all going or you see there's a common theme of AI and stocks. AI and stocks.
Many other influencers are now trading and will be luring their followers into a losing streak that will last another 12 months. Now, how do I know this? I day traded for 10 years and every time I see someone try to sell you an indicator, I can tell you exactly how that indicator is calculated. Okay?
There's not many options you can do and they always use either the past historical prices or moving average or volume. There's no edge fence. They're not handing out edge to plebs, bro.
They're not handing out edge to plebs.
The edge that influencers actually have, is that they know Bitcoin and crypto whenever they have a red daily or a red monthly candle and people get wiped for a period of time, it creates a whole new generation of people who hate holding and they will go become suckers at the table and start trading.
That's what happens. Okay? And they take advantage of that. They come and say, "Hey, I'm the trader messiah. come and follow me. And then you ask him, "Hello, Trader Messiah, with your amazing indicator and method. Please open up a public hyperlquid account so we can see you consistently outperform the market for 6 months and then we can actually see if what you're selling works."
Crickets, you don't hear anything.
You'll get some pump music though [music] every single time. And by the way, just be careful as well. Someone will eventually do it again and then they actually start winning. But when everyone starts getting really popular, there's always this curse and then they start mean reverting all the way down.
Is this the bottom signal, friends? So their losing streak, it will start um and it will start and yeah, that's what happens. We have all these statistics.
People who open up accounts, I tell you this all the time. You got to know it, bro. Literally every single person who opens up a trading account, you can give them a 99% chance that in 12 to 24 months they'll have less money than what they started with.
12 to 24 months. 99% chance with sports bets. It's a 95% chance cuz they don't give you leverage and they're regulated as well and you're betting on sports. M it's kind of funny with trading it's 99% failure rate cuz everything's rigged and you might say oh sports are rigged yeah but they're not they're still maybe they're rigged but you know the market the market prices are really really aggressive I mean there is very efficient pricing um but at the end of the day where's your edge bro you're just getting you're getting bonked you need an actual edge what is your edge what's your alpha most people don't have it an indicator is not an alpha it's not worth anything uh you think it's worth something cuz you paid for it no it's not worth anything Okay.
Um, having a method is not an edge.
Having a strategy, what you think is a strategy, not an edge, dude. Okay.
Everyone's got a strategy. You notice that? Yeah. Everyone's got a strategy.
Go just hit the other guy in the face.
That's a strategy. How come it's still PvP? How come it's still only one person winning, 100 people losing? Now, it doesn't start like that every day. Every day there's actually 40 people winning, 60 people losing. It's 40 60. The people in it's not 50/50 because of the fees and the slippage, right? But if you keep coming compounding that over time, you get the results that you see.
Andrew, it's almost like Richard Hart foraw this happening. Pulse chain will be the one true chain to rule them all.
Hexangelo contrarian victory incoming.
Sensei bottom signal.
Foolsy modernday snake oil sales on believing nothing but tell you a good tale of riches. Yeah, people who tell you to hold vents, they'll tell you um you know trading will get you wrecked.
They will.
And traders will tell you holding gets you wrecked. Okay? So they both say that. However, in crypto, most people actually tell you to trade. Go listen to every influencer. They're all shilling something. Not a spend. Not a single not one single influencer tells you and me, um, hey, even if the bare market comes, don't try to time it from the cycle.
Don't sell. Just keep buying. No one says that. Nobody says that, friends.
Everybody's a trader. Literally everyone. Yeah. That's why what we're actually doing is contrarian, which is wild. It's like don't sell no matter how high it goes and just keep buying.
That's very, very rare. Only 1% of people saying that. Like true absolute nut cases. And I know you don't believe it. You think you think stupid if you do that. Exactly. That's what you want to be in. You want to be in something where people are saying you are monstrously stupid if you don't want to trade and you're just going to keep buying infinitely.
People will call you really. That's where you want to be, friends. That's the edge. What's that? What's that really mean? It means the average market participant does not believe how high the valuations are going to go at all.
Their ma their brains have been warped by soy.
Vibra, I think it's a gain test. Miles has AIDS. Ben loves the D. And Pomp, I don't even know. [laughter] Thank you, sir. Thank you. That's awesome. Always have Mr. Lady Crypto Mommy. Go Sami. This is going to be so much fun. We're going to make it.
Yeah. This will be the time ends where they all called for the crypto industry to go much higher in 2025. Then when it goes down, they say, "Oh, just cheat now. Je now. Leave. Start trading.
Take advantage of these prices. They won't last forever." Like, subscribe.
Catch you in the next one.
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