The post-WWII international economic order, which relied on American military protection (NATO) and Chinese manufacturing exports to fund European welfare states, is collapsing because AI has reduced the need for human labor and the tax base is eroding, leaving Britain and similar nations in a fiscal crisis where they can only borrow rather than cut spending.
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the cruel bastard of the mind追加:
Bond slippier is is fading underneath me now. Underworld of 1995.
The sight [music] of a British man choosing his own future and walking away with with a bag, a bag of swag. [music] I think I did that 20 years later in 2015. If you know the film, you know the feeling.
>> [music] >> If you don't, you might just have a taste and a sense of it by the end of this.
My brothers and my sisters, welcome to St. [music] Barts, to the sermon on the rock. The island has a way of making the rest of the world feel very very far away and very manageable at the same time. On this day, the 7th of May, on on a rock in the Caribbean, but very far away in the universe, far far away, the British electorate are are going to to voice a protest about the abysmal state of the British economy.
Ladies and gentlemen, I am the asset capitalist. I am Hugh Hendry.
Occasional DJ, recovering global macro hedge fund manager, father, mushroom enthusiast. Can I say that?
When you're listening to music, no matter what is okay, but the the shrooms are shroomtastic. Right, anyway, details on Substack. Let's go.
Did you know that Raffles opened a hotel in the old British War Office? The building where Churchill stood poring over maps and he and he counted ships and made calls that changed the world. Five stars now five stars. That's not the admirals. I think that's the grade of the linen. You know, the thread count on those beautiful five star sheets. Which anyway brings me to the Royal Navy. Britain has 22 ships and 72 admirals.
The NHS runs more administrators than nurses. The British Army feels less deployable tanks than Belgium in 1940. Portsmouth is selling the 17th century citadel.
Building next door to the war office.
The admiral, too.
That's getting gutted.
It's going to be another five star hotel.
These ain't quirky fights. These are fractals.
It's the same pattern wherever you look.
A system, a political system so far beyond so far beyond its original purpose that it's now consuming itself is now consuming itself just to stay alive. I mean, it's the local elections.
Yawn. When did you Have you ever voted in local elections?
Doesn't matter.
Let me tell you what no politician will say.
The nation state you know, that grandiose Union Jack waving thing. It was never noble.
It was always a deal, a big deal. You give us your taxes, your compliance and occasionally your kids.
And in return, we'll give you defense, roads, schools, hospitals, a floor under your life. For about 100 years, that deal made a lot of sense. Not because it was a new Jerusalem, but because it was cheaper than the alternative.
Cheaper than every town defending itself.
Cheaper than every family insuring against catastrophic risk.
To get the bodies that the state needed for the factories, for the for the trenches, for the tax rolls, the state had to make promises.
Rights, pension, welfare, health care, a vote, universal suffrage.
We came to call that social democracy.
Two things happened that no one in Westminster will certainly admit to.
The first is war.
The Americans recently dismantled the entire Iranian air force and navy with no soldiers.
It was simply drones and Palantir systems.
AI moving faster than any human command structure. Think about that. The most powerful military intervention in recent years conducted almost entirely without bodies. You don't constrict a drone. The mass, the millions of ordinary people, you know, the people that the state needed to fight, to work, to pay, doesn't need them the way it once did.
And if it doesn't need them to fight, it doesn't need to keep promising just to keep them loyal. The second thing is really the same thing, but it's the AI.
Think about who actually pays the tax in Britain.
It's not the billionaires. I mean, it is, but it's not not just the billionaires. They've got lawyers and Gulfstreams and second passports in a drawer. and it's definitely not the people on benefit. It's you. It's the professional middle classes.
The lawyer, the accountant, the analyst, the consultant. The expensive educated human paste sitting between capital and labor. And now a model that costs $20 a month is doing what all of them spend a decade or more training for. The middle isn't being destroyed. That would That would be dramatic.
Some of my actually respond. It's worse than that. The middle is being made optional. And so the tax base that the the state was built upon begins to move.
You see, hospitals don't cost less because the memo was written by AI. The debt service doesn't care that the graduates can't find jobs. The ship lists not from one wave, but because the internal cost structure no longer clears. America carried the guns so Europe didn't have to. America spent $22 trillion more than all the other countries over the last 50 years.
Bueller? Bueller? What do I hear about?
Did I hear what what peace dividend?
Europe got the peace dividend. Europe took that saving and built the most glorious welfare state. You know, the the abundant pension, the early age pension, the shorter working week. You don't call it the greatest social democracy, a cathedral. And And you know what?
America just sent the bill, which means Europe now has to pay for its own defense.
At exactly the same moment that tax base is being stressed.
And you know what? Oh my god, the borrowing cost is it's going higher.
System is stressed. It's not me. I'm not stressed. I'm in St. Barths. This The European system is in stress. The model that looks so sophisticated and humane and admirable, you know what? It was a subsidy.
It was one part of the world bailing out another. And again, to repeat myself, but the subsidy just [ __ ] ended. So that that's the machine sitting here in Bar select and Gustav in St. Barths. I we need to talk about Britain.
As the polls begin to close, because Britain didn't just inherit the problem. The [ __ ] Brits specialized in it.
You know the movie or and before the movie, it was a book.
But you know June?
You know that the most valuable substance in the universe in June comes from one planet.
Arrakis.
And the Fremen the inhabitants of Arrakis, these are men of the desert.
And they know every [ __ ] grain of sand.
And yet, they are completely controlled by an external power that extracts what the desert produces. The desert men are completely controlled by an alien external force. You see, Arrakis doesn't own the spice. Arrakis is the spice. Arrakis is a spice colony.
And Britain Britain thought it was an empire.
When it was always Arrakis.
You know the financial the financial infrastructure, the legal system, the English language, the time zone, the deep capital markets, centuries-old traditions, good [ __ ] All of it, not a source of British power, but a >> [sighs] >> harvesting mechanism for someone else's industrial strategy. Men greater than me know one thing. They know that you don't become someone else's comparative advantage.
They know that you don't let the surplus nations write your industrial future.
They know that you never harvest your own people. They know that you you build the factory or you become the spice.
And Britain became the spice. Old Spice.
So, I want to discuss how that happened and why it was not an accident. You see, China, let's go back 50 years ago, but kind of in the maelstrom of the political of the forging of a new political economy.
Thatcherism, Reagan, the detente with China. China made a decision, a state planning decision to build manufacturing capacity far beyond anything their own people could ever conceivably consume. To keep it that way by design.
The Chinese worker was never going to be paid what their what their productivity deserved. You know, we we we we had them on a long march from the paddy field to to like multi-billion dollar fabrication centers in modern metropolises.
But the Chinese state pact was that those workers would never enjoy the full fruits of their productivity. The state planners in China feared a dominant and cyclical Chinese consumer.
A middle class with money and choices and opinions.
That's a [ __ ] political threat.
And so they they held Chinese wages down. I'm not saying Chinese wages did not rise.
Chinese wages went up a lot, but productivity went up even more and the gap widened and widened.
Do you know what that does?
That suppresses domestic demand and it absolutely guarantees that you have a yawning gap between what you produce and what you can consume within the borders of the magic [ __ ] kingdom of China.
China needed a lot of [ __ ] buyers outside the country. So they went shopping for supplicant Western governments. Hello, hello.
Is that London? They find them everywhere.
Because because to politician to the [ __ ] politicians, the deal that they offered was irresistible.
We, the Chinese state we will buy your government debt.
We will keep your borrowing costs really low.
We will fund your [ __ ] welfare state.
We will like social democratic model.
You're really proud of it? Cool. NHS, pension, benefits, shorter working week, universal credits.
All of it.
No problem. We will underwrite all of it. So the Chinese were compensating all these governments for what? For the fact that they were hollowing out their industries.
Taking jobs, leading to an opioid crisis, a lack of hope, lack of ambition. French citizens, British citizens, American citizens placated whilst Chinese factories run 24/7 full.
And as you know, Britain like where do I sign?
America signed up, too. Europe, of course, with a [ __ ] cathedral signed up. And the thing that makes me really angry, they called it free trade. It was a protection racket with just better branding.
So, yes.
That whole post Second World War, that thing is most admired about Europe is social democratic model.
It did work.
But not for the reasons anyone cares to admit. It worked because you had two elements working together like a pincer.
The first clearly was China.
The open check.
The bribe writing the surplus that those exports generated directly into European, American, and British government debt.
Keeping borrowing costs really low.
Funding the welfare state. And the other thing, again, was NATO. America carried the guns so that Europe didn't have to.
Free defense from America. Free money from China. Europe did not build this utopia. It was purchased for Europe by American soldiers and Chinese factory workers. Both of whom never got a vote on the arrangement. And never shared in the proceeds. And yet Europe sat in the middle collecting the peace dividend and calling it European superior [ __ ] value. Clearly it was the best of all worlds.
As long as this too good to be true logic was held in place.
As long as the price prevailed. Except America, like Samson, America, the most powerful nation on Earth, the consumer of last resort for every factory on the planet, the world's free soldier, smiling and paying and slowly hollowing his own industrial base out because everyone told her it was a bully 10 years ago. I saw and it was against my better judgment. I never like going back was only forward, but I saw Simple Minds and it was a small intimate concert in London.
And you know what was shocking?
The lead singer Do you know what he did all night? He denigrated his talent. He said like that the back up singing singers were way better than he was. I'm guessing he thought that was the nice thing to do.
My take from that is you never be the [ __ ] nice guy.
Instead be the salvation.
Be the salvation that people are actually seeking. Trump looked in the mirror and decided America was done being Mr. Nice Guy. And so he's ending both the military subsidy and the trade arrangement.
Gone. Instead he's taking the bill for 50 years of security. You know the bill that was never paid for and he's presenting it to the social Democrats.
This isn't coming from some crank with a gold chart and a grudge. This is the asset capitalism. I'm in St. Barts. No, no, forget me. Take me out of the equation. Let's go deeper.
Let me quote from the European University.
The Institute of the European University, the Florence report.
The the most beige address in European economics. The brown shoes and consultancy speak.
But you know what they called this arrangement?
The one that I'm seeking to share with you.
I'm going to use their words, not mine.
They called it Europe's reduced responsibility model. That's the sound of 50 years of free riding being quietly confessed like in the footnotes by the [ __ ] people who designed the free ride in the first place. They're not angry. They're not They're not even embarrassed about it.
They're just nodding in the tone of a man updating a spreadsheet that the arrangement is over. The invoice has arrived. Now, that means that the money that kept the British borrowing costs cheap, that's going out the door. Okay, so the UK must have a plan. What is the plan?
Plan is to polish the relationship with the city of London and pray that the money stops [snorts] leaking out the door.
Think of that. In the middle of the biggest repricing of the economic system in 50 years, Britain's answer is to become a better receptacle for the capital that's already leaving the door.
They've read the wrong textbook.
They're prescribing more of the drug that caused the [ __ ] disease in the first place.
Are they morons? Yes, they are. And the wealth the welfare?
I don't even know. Is that American term? The British welfare arithmetic makes the trap Oh my god, it makes it so transparent, so visible, so [ __ ] absurd.
Britain spends somewhere between 80 and 100 billion dollars. No, 80 and 100 billion pounds. What's that? It's like It's like It's like 130 billion dollars.
What does it spend it on? Bueller, Bueller, what does it spend it on?
Disability and sickness benefits. One and a half times defending the country.
You know, like Vladimir, Ukraine, the mullahs in Tehran. They're spending a 100 billion pounds so British people don't have to work.
I mean, that's [ __ ] incredible. I mean, that should make you weep, but imagine Britain's annual public investment in AI, you know, the single greatest technological transformation in human history, AI, the thing that will determine whether your kids will have agency in the world is cha- that's coming.
Or maybe it will if we're unlucky and if we don't manage the situation well, it will it will determine that your kids are surplus to requirements. The British government is spen- spending tens of millions on AI.
Tens of millions and a hundred billion on disability. 80 to 100 billion pounds paid so that people don't have to productively engage themselves in the [ __ ] economy. Tens of millions on a bet on the thing that will define the next 100 years.
This versus this. We're spending a thousand times more on standing still than moving forward. It's not a policy failure. It's a death star.
And the fractal closes every future if you're British.
Not metaphorically, I'm talking about arithmetically.
Consider this when the British government tried to cut five billion, a measly five, from the 82 from the benefits bill, 120 of those [ __ ] labor MPs rebelled and they killed it, bastards. Britain is a state that cannot cut, it can only borrow, and it can only borrow if the bond market keeps buying. And the bond market is beginning to ask a question that nobody in Westminster dares answer.
The yields are ready.
And that's not noise.
That's not a tantrum.
The gilt market knows. The pound knows.
The pound knows what every [ __ ] with a Gulfstream knows.
50 years ago, Britain went to the IMF.
The pound was in freefall.
The sovereign credit was gone.
And the Prime Minister stood up, and he told his own party conference, "You cannot spend your way out of a recession."
It was the most brilliant, the most honest thing a British Prime Minister has said in the 20th century or the 21st century.
And it destroyed his government. Britain going cap in hand to the IMF is not unimaginable from here. The debt trajectory, the structural deficit, the paralysis at the heart of a government with a huge majority, the betting market is not polite. By the time you're listening to this, you'll know the result. The betting markets are pricing a political catastrophe.
A government elected 18 months ago on a generationally unassailable majority 18 months ago, untouchable, and is odds-on to receive the greatest electoral thumping that any governing party has ever taken.
That's not hyperbole.
Like you can judge You've read about this, so you know it now. This is the This is The Asset Allocator is talking to you in the future.
Price always knows. Irony? I don't know.
Well, let's talk about paradox.
They will replace the Prime Minister.
They will replace Starmer with an even greater clown who will have better slogans and worse politics.
This is a race to the bottom. Now I want to talk about Sunil Sithia, Quadrature Capital, a quant hedge fund.
Not just any quant hedge fund. Sunil has built a machine that reads markets faster and more accurately than any human analyst alive.
Has revenues of 1 and 1/2 billion last year.
Sunil He doesn't need clients.
The guy has invented a money machine.
What does he do with the money machine?
He donates 5 million to the Labour Party. And that is the largest single donation in the party's history. And then what did Sunil do? And I mention Sunil just because I I've met him in I've met him here in Saint Barth. He's a [ __ ] nice guy.
He's a really rich guy.
What did he do next?
He bought Nick Candy's house in Chelsea for 270 270 million bones.
The most expensive residential sale ever recorded in the world. The man gave the most money to a government promising to make Britain work. The man running the most sophisticated financial machine in in the world. He looks at everything he knows about where this thing is going.
And he bought He bought dirt.
He bought British dirt. But he bought 2 acres inside the Royal Chelsea Hospital.
Georgian walls, [ __ ] lake, the largest private garden in central London apart from the King's Garden. Sunil, he didn't buy girls. He didn't buy sterling.
This is not a bet on British economic growth. He bought the one thing that cannot be re-zoned, that cannot be replicated, that cannot be touched by a planning committee, or a vision document for the city of London. I am not saying that's hypocrisy.
That's the signal.
What is the signal? Bueller, Bueller, scarcity. The smartest money in Britain just told you exactly what he thinks thinks about Britain in a 270 million transaction.
Price doesn't do speeches.
Price just moves.
I want to tell you something personal now.
People always ask, "Why St. Barts?"
And I I give them the, you know, the Belinda Carlisle, heaven is a place on Earth.
Just kind of easier.
But, the real answer is is more personal.
You see, I I mean, should we talk about this, but I was falling out of love.
I'd outlived my marriage.
But, I've got a trader's mind that reads oscillations that that's that sees drawdowns as opportunity.
I I retain an optimism that that buys recovery.
Except, sometimes in real life, there are no happy endings. There was no mean reversion in my marriage. But, St. Barts, and I swear there's a fountain of youthfulness here.
You know what? It It kept me steady.
And now, this is not a humble brag, but and I hope you get it, the energy. I am [ __ ] happy. So, you don't interpret that as me denigrating the lady. That's lame.
I hate when guys do that.
Never leak energy.
Happy people make informed decisions.
I got three kids in Britain.
And I I and others I'm responsible for handing over dead maps. What I mean?
Study this, qualify for that.
Go to the the best university.
Climb here in the system meets you halfway. Put in the work. That [ __ ] [ __ ] worked for me.
But that bargain is closing. The thing that confused me, when it was working for me, it was really drawing down a credit arrangement underwritten by a foreign sovereign. You know that map that I'm trying to hand my kids with the confidence that it connects to like real [ __ ] real life [ __ ] That map connects to nothing. It's like a pirate scroll.
Pirates of the Caribbean theme park in Disney. [ __ ] this question, what should they study? Question is where is the money? Where is the heat? Where are the kids already living in the future?
British universities laminate past glory. My message to my kids is don't enter that. Don't enter that old system.
Slip the fence.
Seneca has told us that scarcity is the trade.
I mean, when is it not been the trade?
Let's face it.
But the digital world is building an abundance machine. Replicating at zero marginal cost. I mean, everything that can be copied.
Everything that copied will become cheap. And so capital, your capital has to hunt things that cannot be copied.
Rock, coastline, jurisdiction.
An island in the Caribbean that can't be printed by a central bank.
You know, a friend of mine he bought a house here last week. $31 million.
The same owners of that property, they bought that house during COVID. I think it was 2023, 3 years ago.
Do you know what they bought it for?
12 million.
12 to 31 and no one calls it a bubble because no one seriously believes the supply can respond. This is inventory scarcity being repriced against a world where everything else is becoming cheap, cheap, cheap. When I left in 2015, the best houses in London, I I This is not scientific, but I reckon the best houses in London and the best houses in in St. Barts, they traded paripassu one-for-one. Same money, different rock. I think that ratio has moved hard against London since.
Maybe London is half of St. Barts now.
Maybe worse. And I think it's going to keep moving. You You're not pricing property.
You're pricing escape velocity. St. Barts, I mean, yes, it's lifestyle, but it's my short position on the sovereign on the European sovereign expressed in rock and salt water. The premium you pay is not for a sunshine.
It's for the absence of what's happening everywhere else. London is the black mirror. Sellers everywhere, buyers thin except at the very, very tall. Below that level, London is is exposed.
Tax, politics, regulation, a professional middle class that's being automated automated out of existence, and a government that cannot fit find the will to arrest the decline.
God rest United Kingdom. The wealth tax is coming, but the only people left to extract are are leaving. Think about when the Chancellor, whoever he or God forbid she is, when they stand up with the bombshell, money's gone. Somewhere over the Atlantic, a man will read the headline on an AI device and will laugh hysterically. That man ain't coming back. My brothers and sisters, wow. Ooh, ooh, no, you still there? We need We need to talk about summer come. Same bars on the rock.
Come and and come and look at the scarcity.
Come, swim, [music] argue, watch the sun go down, drink cocktails, meet people who give a [ __ ] down. All skill levels.
The dumber, >> [music] >> the better.
I mean, not too dumb, but you don't need a financial brain. You've got at least 10 million [music] in capital.
Come and let's discuss what you do with it.
>> [music] >> You just need a brain that's still alive. I promise you mine is still alive.
And then remember Substack, [music] Substack, where the full papers live and breathe.
You're the sovereign parasite. Click.
So, I I opened [music] with Bourne Slippy in the Underworld, walking away with the bag.
The sound of a British man choosing >> [music] >> his own fortune on his own terms. I'm closing with It had to be the Specials Ghost Town. It's 1981.
It's number one in Britain. It's the summer when Toxteth burned. It's the summer when Brixton burned.
It's the summer when the post-industrial north was switched off. The band were falling apart. Terry Hall looked like a man attending his own funeral.
>> [music] >> And somehow somehow the Specials made the most alive music in the room. They wrote it 45 years ago about a Britain that felt like it was ending. They were just a little bit early. I'm done my brothers and sisters. Press subscribe. If it's late at night, get some sleep. The price will be there in the morning. My brothers and sisters, the price is the only honest thing left.
Oh.
>> [music] [music] >> This town is crumbling like a ghost town.
>> [music] [music] >> This place is crumbling like a ghost town.
>> [music] >> The people getting angry.
>> [music] [music] >> This town is coming like a ghost town.
This town is coming like a ghost town.
This town is coming like a ghost town.
This town is coming like a ghost town.
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