The analysis sharply captures the market's current "earnings-over-everything" mindset, where AI-driven semiconductor growth renders geopolitical escalations a mere footnote. It is a sobering reminder that capital markets often prioritize silicon cycles over systemic macro risks.
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IRAN SAYS THEY HIT THE US NAVY, US OFFICIALS DENY IT, SEMIS CONTINUE THEIR RUN, OIL UP | MARKET OPENAdded:
Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. It is Monday, May the 4th be with you. We are live and we are starting off another Monday to get ready to analyze the global capital equity markets. We have so many things to talk about, so many things that have happened in the past 24 hours. Quite frankly, so many things that happened in the past five hours. If you were up early, uh got up at around 4:30 today. So, we're starting off the week with some uh at least early morning wakeups. I'm going to see if we can keep it a trend. Usually I wake up at like 6 a.m. trying to see if we can get at least aim for five. We did 4:30 today.
And as soon as you wake up, it's like, okay, boom, there's news. And the news ended up leading to futures going red.
We'll talk about what happens when futures going red. Futures ended up flipping green. Bitcoin, as you can see right here, was at 80, fell to 78. Now it's almost back at 79. Bunch of things have happened already in the past couple of hours. And so we'll discuss everything that happened and the implications of what it might mean throughout the day. S&P 500 futures now are starting to go green. We've also got a lot of earnings this week. Obviously, Super Bowl today. Palanteer, it's going to be a big one. Up 2.3% in the pre-markets, 14730. We did hit 148. I will be live at 3:45 after hours with Arie and Amir and we'll be getting ready to see another pound to earnings. I believe this is um the 15th or 16th quarter that I've done. I I started doing it in 2022, 2026. So, it's been about four years. Very excited for that. Uh, and then you also got AMD on Tuesday and a lot of other companies throughout the rest of the week. So, there's going to be a ton. I think it's 20% of the S&P 500 is reporting this week. Uh, the majority of the Mac 7 and the big tech companies reported last week. So, this one's going to be an important week as well. And hopefully this week ends up keeping this momentum going. So, we got earnings to cover. We got a ton of macro stuff to analyze.
Bunch of stuff that happened already in the pre-markets. And then obviously a variety of things that happened over the weekend that it seems like are positive to an extent. So, there's obviously some bearish stuff we'll talk about, but it's looking like it's going to keep the market into this rally mode if the headlines are seen in a more positive sense, and I think there's a bull in the bare case to these headlines that we'll discuss. Overall, markets relatively green in the pre-market. They were a lot more green before some of the headlines hit. Now that those headlines are getting reversed, it seems like we're kind of recovering. AOI that's green.
Lumenum's green. Tesla barely red. Adobe barely red. And now we just got to see if this can continue going into the day.
So very very excited for this. Thank you everybody for being here. Lots and lots and lots to discuss and get into. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning.
Good morning. Yes, Grab is also today.
That is going to be after hours. That's going to be later in the night. Um because it's in Singapore. So like 8:00 PM US time will be 8 a.m. Singapore time. And then we'll get those earnings.
Uh and then we have SMCI tomorrow, AMD tomorrow. And then Thursday is going to be absolutely crazy. Thursday, Iran, Cororeweave, Rocket Lab, Soundtown, Micardo, Libre, Airbnb, Trade Desk, MP, DraftKings, Affirm, Cloudflare, Open Door, SMR. I mean, like it's going to be a massive, massive day for earnings.
Wednesday is also going to be pretty crazy as well. So, uh, definitely going to be a wild wild week and a lot of stuff for us to be able to discuss. Kyle, good morning. Sydney, Cindy, Eric, Georgiana, what's up?
What's up? What's up? Thank you all for being here. Helder, Swift, Parzible, Zombietor. What do we think of SMCI?
Honestly, SMCI has had a nice rebound from the 19s. It's at 27 right now. Uh, if the Chinese thing is not that big of an issue for them, aka the GPU uh, I guess smuggling, then, you know, maybe they put up some good numbers.
Dell's numbers were amazing. Maybe SMCI has some of that growth even if their margins aren't that good. And maybe this one rebounds. But a lot of these companies, right, even the more respected ones like a Snapchat this week where a lot of people think it's due for a breakout like now it's going to be time to see if they can put up some earnings to see if we can get some of that love. Alex, Timothy, Lauren, what's up? What's up? Be careful with your voice this week. We don't want to lose you. Yes, we'll be careful with it. Now, I don't think I'm doing like an eight hour stream like I did last week. So, hopefully we should be all right, but definitely a lot to cover. Scamci, you know, this scam inside thing works so well. Scam it. ScamD aka AMD. Like it's just great. The scam joke. It's a good one. It's it's one of the better insiders that we have come up with over the past couple of weeks. Sydney, Aziz, Vi, Jose, Stano, Lisa Adams, Cycle Time, Aziz, Killer K, Twisty Curl, I'm Beneficial, Let's Go, Fam, Andy, Benny, Amit, M Patel. We got another emit in the chat. There we go. I love it.
Broesco, thank you for being here. All right, let's get started. Let's get into it. Hopefully everyone had a good weekend. I had a pretty productive weekend. Got a lot of stuff done. So excited for this week. Woke up early in the morning, got some stuff done in the morning. It's always nice when you wake up early, get stuff done, and have a good start to the day. And so hopefully we can keep that going. Now, given I was up early in the morning, let's start with the first news story. Uh futures ended up going ugly red. And I kind of saw this happen in real time. It was just funny watching all these charts go red at the exact same moment. And I was like, "All right, what did Trump say?
What happened? Why are we going down?"
And this was the headline. The Iran media agency, far as news, said two missiles hit US warships near the Jaz Island after it ignored Iran warnings.
So what is the context of this? Over the weekend, Trump announced Project Freedom. Project Freedom is essentially his goal of uh escorting US or not US, but ships that are neutral inside of the Iran US conflict. and using the US Navy's protection they're trying to escort these ships out of the straight of Hermuz because he doesn't want those ships to be just stuck in the region with nowhere to go obviously because they can't go to the straight of her moose and then if they even get through that you have US blockade so the mission he's framing is a humanitarian move as many ships are low on food and essential supplies now Iran said over the weekend if any US ship tries to or any ship escorted by the US tries to actually get through the straight of her moves we are going to shoot at them which is a hell of a claim to make because if you shoot at, you know, the US Navy escorting a ship. You're essentially shorting at the U shooting at the US and uh I don't know if that's necessarily going to go work out for them. So that's what they said last night. Then their media agency said we did shoot at them this morning. Uh and that's when futures tanked, but Trump came out with the US Central Command and said that didn't happen. So they said uh two US flag merchant ships have successfully transited the straight of Vermuz and are continuing their journey safely. American guided missile destroyers are now operating in the Arabian Gulf after passing through the straight of under quote project freedom.
So not only did Trump and US Central Command say that they didn't get shot at, but they actually were able to effectively escort two ships through the straight proving that this whole project freedom thing that they're trying to go for at least to an extent uh ended up becoming real. So it kind of makes sense why Iran said we shot at them and we you know hit the ships because they're trying to paint to their people that they are in control of the straight of again if you want to shoot at the US it might not be the best idea because the US will shoot back and quite frankly it would give them the pretext for the justification in order to shoot back. So uh right now given the US is saying two ships actually did successfully transit through the straight of we don't we can't literally confirm that there weren't any shots fired. Uh but the US is denying that there were any shots and is saying that we actually got those shots through the trader form boost. So it seems like a relatively okay update.
Oil spiked to 108 when the headline originally came out and that's why futures really went down. We are still above 100 folks on oil which is scary to say the least. Um there's a lot of context on oil being at these levels that we'll talk about as well throughout the show today. But WTI crew now back at 103 from 108. still up 1% on the day, but it was up seven or I think it was like 5.7% uh in the pre-markets which obviously hurt oil. Brent still at a pretty high level at 110 and so we are once again back in this uh headline driven economy where back and forth you see these different arguments going and you know you either believe them or don't believe them but the market is reacting to them.
Now, again, the market's been pretty good at not reacting heavily to oil, but if there's actually like serious military confrontation, which was the pretext of the headline that we had today, yeah, the market's going to react, and at least it seems like it wasn't as big of a deal as what it initially came to be. S&P 500 basically flat in the overnight or in the futures market. AMD right there down about 1%.
AMD pumped to 365 last night, 357 right here. Again, AMD is going to have a big earnings on Tuesday. You got the Googs, that's basically flat. SMH, semis continue to be at alltime highs. That is up 19%. Novo, are we getting a little bit of a move right there? Novo is getting a bit of a move. 1.73 that was up 4% on Friday as well. So that was the headline in the morning around oil and uh you know most of it has been relatively calm since this headline around the US Central Command saying that the the Navy operation worked. Question is going to be how much the market interprets that as actually being true. Buffett, over the weekend, you had the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholder meeting.
Buffett was in the audience this time.
He could because he's not the CEO of Berkshire Hathway anymore. And he had some interesting comments. There's a couple things of what he had to say which is going to kind of frame uh some of the different bearish perspectives you're having right now in the state of the market. You know, I've compared the markets to a church with a casino attached and and people can move between the church and casino and and I always said there are more people in the church and more people in the casino, but the casino's gotten very attractive to people. you know, if you're buying one day options or selling them, I mean, that is uh that's not investing, it's not speculating, it's gambling, you know, just totally.
So, we've never had people in a more gambling mood than now, you know.
Now, what makes his comments so important, at least in terms of how people are analyzing this, is that Berkshire Hathaway revealed over the weekend that they are sitting on $400 billion of cash. And if you look at some analysis right here in 2006, if you invested $10,000 into the S&P 500 or Bergkshire Hathway 20 years ago, uh you would end up with exactly the same return, 694.6%, 6% $79,415 which means over the past 20 years Berkshire Hathway has not outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 10 years it has largely due to Birkshar stake in Apple but you've got a lot of people wondering wait a second what's going on here why is Buffett holding on to this much cash why is that capital not meaningfully being deployed and when he was asked you know do you think we're in a good macro right now Burke Buffett basically said in the past 60 years there's only been five years that are juicy times for Birkshire to go shopping And this is not one of those years. And as a result, you've got um you've got Berkshire Hathaway right here basically claiming like, you know, we do not think this is a healthy market to invest in.
Which begs the question, I asked this question last the future stream. I'm going to be asking this question um to everyone here today, which is very simple. Do you think we are in a healthy market?
Simple yes or no. Do you think this market momentum that we've seen is healthy or not? Do you think Buffett's going to deploy that into the S&P? They likely wouldn't. They would probably try to pick stocks, whether it's Domino's, UNH, maybe more American Express, you know, the sort of core holdings that they have. I wonder if they double down on those or if they find an Adobe or a PayPal that they get excited about. But, you know, when Birkshshire invests, they're investing like when they go in heavy on a position. Apple, they put in 35 billion, I would imagine, which is now worth almost 200 billion. I would imagine if they're looking for that type of investment again, they would be, you know, putting up 30, 40 billion bucks.
And quite frankly, without Apple, they would have underperformed the S&P over the past 10 years. So, I think the overhang on Birkshshire is that they need their next Apple. What is their next Apple? As much as they try to say Apple's not a tech company, it's a consumer hardware play, at least that's how Bergkshire justified investing in 2016, it's obviously a tech company. I think they're going to need to find another tech company that is as diverse as Apple with the types of shareholder returns via dividends, buybacks, etc. that Birkshshire is used to in order to grow earnings. And uh you know quite frankly I think one of the only stocks that's out there in tech that actually offers that is Amazon. Now Google's the same but they already did a $5 billion stake in Google. So I wonder if they up that stake but it does feel like Amazon given the diversity of the business over the next 10 20 30 years if Bergkshire wants to hold it for that long will be that thing that gets them to outperform.
At least that's my top of the mind opinion. But they're going to need to deploy that capital somewhere because if this bull market continues in the way that it is going to continue, then I would imagine, you know, you're not going to see as many shareholder returns on Bergkshire Hathway. And speaking of Bergkshire Hathaway, it brings up the discussion around GameStop and eBay. GameStop offered to buy eBay for uh $125 a share. GameStop right there down about 5% in the pre-markets. eBay is at $110. It was at $114 last night.
This is a bit of a weird offer. And the reason the offer is weird is because there's not really a lot of explanation for how it's actually uh going to happen. So, here is a video here of him, Ryan Cohen, the CEO, on Squawk in the morning. He kind of didn't seem like he even wanted to do the interview, but this is what he said when they were asked how this buyout will be facilitated.
>> I think we can start with the idea that the market cap of of GameStop is call it 11 billion. Uh you have $9 billion uh on your balance sheet arguably if you're if you're providing uh effectively all of your stock and then and then the cash that gets you to 20. You have this letter from TD. That's another 20. Uh we're now at 40. Uh but we're still off uh by call it uh 16. And and the 20, as far as I understand, while it's considered a highly confident letter, meaning TD saying they're highly confident uh that they would provide the financing, it's not locked financing.
>> Yeah. We'll see what happens.
Um, I I I hear you. I understand that. I'm I'm just trying to understand where the the rest of the money would come from.
>> It's half cash, half stock.
>> I I I'm I hear you. I'm just saying that that math doesn't get you to the to the price that you're offering.
That's a pretty straightforward question. I don't get it. Like, where's the rest of the money coming from?
>> Shout out to Becky. She's like, I'm too old for this. We're not We're not We're not tolerating this nonsense. Mr. Ryan Cohen, give us an answer here.
>> Andrew laid it out pretty clearly.
>> I I don't understand your question.
We're offering half cash, half stock, and we have the ability to issue stock in order to get the deal done, but the full details of the offer on our are on our website.
>> Yeah, as Mike says right here, he didn't want to say it, but essentially he's saying, I'm using retail as uh ex as exit liquidity. I mean, look, it's very simple, right? Like the the the offer is for 55 billion. They have nine billion in cash. They have a 20 billion uh line of credit from TD which would be issuing debt. So you're still short about what is that 20 billion 15 to 20 billion which means you're going to have to dilute shareholders to the tune of 15 or 20 billion in order to be able to generate that capital. And that is why I think GameStop stock gametop stock is actually down to the pre-market. It was up a lot on Friday. It was also up a lot last night. But after that interview, I think you know a lot of people realized, okay, maybe this is not going to be the type of acquisition that is easily able to be done. Also, Becky asked him another question right here around his compensation and how this uh this ends up playing out. So, let's uh pull this up right here where I mean specifically they were asked, you know, do you get paid if you just combine the two companies and get to a market cap even if it's inorganically getting to that market cap?
>> Billion in cumulative IBIDA. Is that the case that this is a bid to make sure that you're going to get paid in that first trunch to boost the GameStop's market cap?
I mean, I I obviously want to build something much larger, but I don't benefit unless shareholders benefit. So, my compensation package is aligned with shareholders, and I want to I want to build a much larger business.
>> So, just larger means successful. Larger means align with shareholder interests.
larger means um maximizing shareholder value and increasing earnings.
>> Yeah, Ryan, just to touch on that point, I'm I'm I don't know all the details of your compensation package, maybe you can clear it up for us. If if you get to a larger ma market cap by taking two smaller market cap companies and merging them together or or swallowing a much bigger market cap company, does that count? because those shareholders wouldn't necessarily see the same gains that gains that they would if you just grew market cap by, you know, growing operating earnings. I I don't know what the details of your compensation are though directly. Does it matter if you swallow a bigger company and that's how you get the market cap or do the shareholders actually have to see the same gains?
>> I don't benefit and I'm I'm aligned uh I'm aligned with shareholders. So in unless our market cap increases substantially and earnings increases substantially, I don't get any salary, any cash, no golden parachutes, nothing.
So um it's it's uh it's pretty aligned with shareholders. there's uh >> but the individual shareholders don't see that huge benefit if you're combining a lot more shareholders in with that and then diluting shareholders by issuing more debt on top of it. You you see what I'm saying? It's I I get it. If you if you grow market or if you grow your market cap by 10 times, sure I think you should absolutely get gains, but not if you do it by swallowing a bigger company and just, you know, kind of absorbing all of that into it, too, because individual shareholders didn't see a necessarily a huge gain from that.
>> Well, if I don't hit the thresholds, then I don't get anything.
>> Now, again, that's not answering the question. Like, if the goal is, I'm just making this up. you have to get to a hundred billion dollar market cap to unlock a lot of um rewards from a compensation perspective and you combine two companies and the market cap goes up to 100 million. If you're doing that inorganically aka issuing debt and diluting in order to combine two companies create a merger in which the market cap has to go up right because you're combining two companies together.
if that I mean like the the internal nuance of that question is is that or an organic way to grow or earnings which is a inorganic way to grow your um compensation or is that just a financially engineered way to be able to achieve certain milestones and you know there was really no answer to that so it's a very weird acquisition the the Buries of the world have said Ryan Cohen is a mini Buffett and their their argument is that Ryan Cohen's understanding of business will allow him to create a conglomerate that will rival Berkshire Hathway. I mean, Bur has literally said he thinks Ryan Cohen can outperform Berkshire Hathway in the next 40 years if he continues to buy up these assets and merge them with the core business. It's more a bet on Cohen versus GameStop, I think, is Bur's bet.
Uh, but regardless, you know, GameStop is the vehicle to access that bet.
GameStop right there down about 5%, eBay up about 6.7. So eBay and um GameStop are probably going to have a lot of inflows and potentially outflows definitely option volume over the coming days and you know we're going to see if those stocks end up becoming a lot more important. Bas he's on live right now.
Let's go to him real quick and then we'll get into some of the other headlines that we had this morning as well.
>> The Iranian economy is in freef fall.
And to uh be clear here, this is an international humanitarian operation. We are opening the straight. The Iranians do not have control of the straight. And for him to say that, it's sad he believes the Iranian propaganda. There was this report from the overnight that the United States Navy uh in a measure of good faith returned an Iranian vessel not to Iran, but to the Pakistanis. I think there were at least a dozen Iranians on board and it was seen as a sign of a good faith. Uh was Project Freedom done in coordination with Iran today?
>> Uh absolutely not. Project Freedom is something that that's been in the in the works and we would encourage the Iranians to let these more than 300 vessels leave that you know they they can fire on them. You they're I think it's called the Mosquito Navy. the is being swatted. Uh numerous ships maybe in double digits have been destroyed and the US we are just firing if fired upon.
We are not the provocators here but if the Iranians want to escalate here we are willing to escalate.
>> This is clearly a test of Iran as well as we speak. Correct.
>> It it is a test of Iran. But Bill again this is a ragtag band of pirates that the great US military. We've destroyed their air force. have destroyed the all their conventional navy. The uh their battle lines along the straight have been destroyed. So uh we we are saying for the good of the international community, let these ships out. And we are expecting our international partners to engage in the same thing. Now would be a good time for our international partners to step up and put pressure on Iran. Mhm.
>> So, we're going to see what happens throughout the coming days with this idea of Project Freedom. Obviously, Trump claiming this morning that two ships were successfully able to go through. Uh, there were some good headlines over the weekend that the Iranians want to negotiate and Trump is reviewing different offers and so like that stuff is kind of calming down the equity markets. The oil markets are not calmed down by this with oil still above 100. Um the equity markets once again refusing to care about oil being above 100 100 and trusting that this war will inevitably come to an end. I think kind of the core bear case that I looked at over the weekend. I wrote an article. I will link it right here on Substack and the title of the article was this the the stock market is ignoring all of the bad news but maybe for the right reasons. And so it's kind of a deep dive on the bull and the bear case on what's happening in the market. There's two kind of core things that I think is going on right now, right? The first is obviously oil above 100 which remember stocks in 2022 fell 19.2%. 2% and oil was at 120. We are not that far away.
So, the fact that we've normalized S&P 500 gains at all-time highs with oil still at this level. It's weird to some people, right? And you can't say it's not weird now. There's a reason why people will say we continue to buy stocks, which is in my opinion earnings growth, which we'll talk about. But at its core, you know, if I told you S&P is at all time highs, oil's at levels it was at in 2022, a lot of people would find that hard to believe. The other reason why I think some people are afraid is this damn 10-year is not going down 4.4%. This is where we were, we were a little bit above this back in April of 2025 when the S&P was down 30%.
So, the fact that our debt financing has not really gone that much better. And the reason, you might be asking, well, why are people selling off bonds? Uh, as you sell off bonds, yields go up. That's the inverse relationship. The reason goes back to oil. If oil is up and the market thinks there's going to be more inflation because of oil, and quite frankly, oil was 75% of the reason for the increase in CPI, PPI, and PCE over the past month of March. If that doesn't come down, which it did come down in April for like a week, two weeks, you know, we were at 80 85 and now it's right back up, then inflation will be elevated, which is not good for rate cuts. Barkclays came out this morning and said we don't see any rate cuts until 2027. Goldman's a little bit more dovish. They think we'll get a couple by the end of the year. Uh, and it's obviously not good for the bond markets and the credit markets that are screaming right now. It's also not good for Japan. Take a look at this chart. I thought this was incredible. It is very obvious the Bank of Japan is intervening. Every time the yen starts to spike, they come in and they buy up enough yen to keep that thing stable.
The only other way to stop it from going crazy is by raising rates. But Japan theoretically could get into a pretty ugly recession if they raise rates. Um, so they're dealing with inflation on one hand, they're dealing with not having a recession on the other hand. And so you've got a lot of weird stuff happening in the Japanese credit markets as well. You put that together with the move in our US 10 year and 30-year which is now inching 5% along with oil going up. And then the other big reason I think some people are just skeptical on the nature of this market right now is because semis are the most overbought since 2017. When you look at a chart of the SOX, it's just gone absolutely vertical. And you know we know the stocks in here that have just gone crazy. Intel, Micron, Sandis, etc. If you take apart the earnings justification for why those companies are going up, which there's plenty to to to praise when it comes to the earnings, then it just looks like we're melting up parabolically in the face of a lot of things that probably should not allow us to melt up, aka oil and the the credit yields, etc. uh and that it's all fake and that it's weird and that it's scary to invest in this type of environment buying these things at all-time highs. That is the bare case, which is also why I think what 56% of you in the chat said this is not a healthy market on the poll. I mean, there's definitely some level of skepticism that's going on right here on, you know, if we 52% think we're in a healthy market. But the way to fight back against that, we talked about this a lot last night. The way to fight back against that argument is actually pretty simple. And I don't know if the market's going to continue fighting back against it, but there is a simple term that uh easily makes the case for why the market can continue going higher, and that's capex. All the big tech companies crushed it. Capex, Morgan Stanley increased their estimates. They said 600 billion last year. Now they're expecting $1 trillion in 2027. That is a 40% increase of capex that they're projecting for 2027. We've had the best earnings growth since 2021. We are going to come in at 28% if the companies continue to beat at the levels that they're beating at right now. Even if you take out the other income from an Amazon or a Google, for example, for their SpaceX open anthropic stakes, which is what helped them to really beat on those EPS argue uh estimates, we are still having one of the best earnings that we've seen over the past five years.
So, is this market necessarily super healthy given all the different things we've laid out for why it's a little scary? You know, birds saying, "Hey, new bird AI, then boom, the stock goes up 6x, right?" Like, is that healthy? No.
But then when you look at the earnings growth that is, and again, it doesn't have to be that complicated. You can keep it very simple. If stocks are putting up good earnings, the market can overlook the fears of a variety of different macro concerns. If those earnings growths are or if the earnings is is growing and the premium you're putting on those earnings are at a reasonable multiple which I would say Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, um Apple even now with their increased growth there.
These are not multiples that are unbelievably hard to to stomach. And if the multiples aren't that crazy to stomach and then you've got companies like Enthropic going from a billion in ARR to 44 billion in 15 months, which means they need to spend more capex.
That's why I think you get the market that we are getting right now. Uh you know which obviously makes the market very excited. UAE just put out an update says an Iranian drone struck one of their tankers in the straight of Hormuz.
UAE also is issuing a potential potential missile threat alert to the citizens uh of the region right now. They just put out UAE strongly condemns targeting of adnoch national carrier while transiting straight of moose. The United Arab Emirates has strongly condemned and denounced the Iranian terrorist attack involving two drones that targeted a national carrier affiliated with it as it transited the straight of moose.
Maybe those were the um ships that the United States said officially crossed through the straight of moose. Uh South Korea put out a headline saying we are trying to investigate if one of those ships is our vessels. It looks like it might be UAE ships.
And if the UAE is saying that there were drones that targeted it, well, if that's the headline that we got in the morning that got futures to go down and the US came out and said no drones or no shootings happened against our ships, you've got two kind of contradictory claims right here that are happening. Julian says, "No alerts here so far." Yeah, we're seeing a couple tweets of posting of people posting screenshots uh these emergency alerts that people get on their phones. Says, "Due to the current situation, potential missile threats immediately seek a safe place in the closet. Secure buildings. Steer away from windows, doors, and open areas."
All right, we're going to see how much the market cares about this. But then again, right, going back to this chart, the market doesn't care that much about it. I mean, even if the market does care about it, they look at anthropics numbers and it's like, "Wait, maybe this stuff doesn't matter. as much. So if you were up early in the morning, you saw futures go red and not bloody red but red enough to make you think, okay, something's happening and you know within literally 20 minutes that flipped after a counter update. And even if that counter update is not fully accurate, you could argue the first headline was not fully accurate, enough back and forth gets the market to just ignore it and potentially move move on. Julian said, "Okay, the alert just came in." Yeah, there you go.
Stay safe, man. Hopefully, there's nothing too crazy there. But, uh, you know, the fact that it's six weeks later and this war is still continuing and there's still different proxy attacks obviously is not the best thing. South Korea just says, "Yes, one of our vessels has been hit by the IRGC in the straight of Hermuz according to the Federation of Korean seafarers unions."
So now the UAE and South Korea coming out and saying two of our vessels, South Korea saying one of our vessels, the UAE saying two of our vessels have been attacked by the IRGC. We'll see what the US Scent Command ends up saying about this as well.
Um, okay. So those were the bare cases, right? Oil proxy wars going back and forth, these different attacks that are happening. The bull cases once again continues to be earning. By the way, retail is absolutely loading up on the semis. SMH record inflows over the past five months. You can see that right there uh on the screen. Retail has had a cumulative net buying of about 1.2 billion on on SMH. And then if you go further down, Micron in and of itself has had three billion. And then you have Western Digital, SanDisk, Seagate, Lamb Research, and AXTI. So retail is specifically buying the memory stocks that are within uh the semiconductor names. On top of that, Goldman put out a study over the weekend around photonics.
I know a lot of people have been like learning about photonics. There's been a lot more research that has been coming out on photonics. Uh light, lumenum, coherent, uh AOI, all these different names that are out there. Goldman said, "We think this market is a I believe it was uh let's get the exact estimate right here, but multiundred billion dollar market." It was a very long report they put out on it. And this is one where retail honestly has caught on to the photonic story way quicker than uh the street. And as a result of this argument on how big photonics can become, uh, you've got all the photonix names that are now pumping because you had an institutional research firm come out and say, "Hey, we think it's going to be a very, very big thing." I mean, they even put out this chart right here, as you can see, with all the different tickers that people have been talking about when it comes to photonics. Now, Jensen was obviously very early on this because they invested $2 billion into Coherent and Lum. And that's also, I think, part of the reason the S&P 500 accepted those two companies pretty quickly. But you've got Nokiia up there, Coherent, Broadcom, AOI, GLW, Corning, a lot of these names that have been kind of going a bit more viral. Poet is part of that ecosystem. I don't know if you know Poet's going to be the massive winner. It's one of the only photonics name that hasn't done anything, but it bottomed kind of around 650. Now it's at 750, obviously down from 17.
But optical communications and memory are the two core elements of this uh AI supply chain bottleneck that seems to be breaking out. And the fact that Sanders went down 8% and now is up 8% uh or it was up 8% on Friday, up a little bit in the pre-markets, crossed $1,200. It's just incredible. I mean, it's one of those things where either you look at it and say, "This is the toppiest thing ever, and this is going to collapse pretty ugly on any bad memory headline, or you believe all these memory executives. SK Heinix was up 11% last night when the Korean markets open and say the earnings estimates are going to go up. The forward multiple will continue to go down and the CEOs of these memory companies Micron CEO uh on Friday was at a conference and said we are not early we are not late stage cycle. We are a pivotal part and we are early stage for an entire industrial AI infrastructure buildout. Obviously the guy is talking his book, but if you believe him that we are actually early, then Micron probably deserves a Ford PE that's higher than seven. Micron right there at 556 in the pre-market that's up 2.54%.
Qualcomm was not on the list. Uh they're not really an optics play, although they're more of a CPU play. That stock down a little bit, although it's up a lot from the 130s. And so I think they're going to have to kind of disclose more about the relationship with that hyperscaler deal that they had to see if this ends up continuing. So that's the question that I have for everyone. Do people believe that we are in this massive optic uh super cycle and memory super cycle? And if you meaningfully believe that then the question is going to be okay how large does that industry become and does oil even matter at that point. This is a quote from the article. We expect significant EPS upside for key beneficiaries across optical modules and engines. Um we remain bullish on our optical and PCB coverage including our buy rating coverage of all the different names and you can see those names right there.
I mean basically Goldman just validated the entire industry over the weekend and you know this is an industry again retail has been pretty closely covering um especially because a lot of people felt that you know they missed memory so they wanted to be next on the uh next revolution and if that revolution is optics which again there's a lot of different bare cases to like how much that has capacity to grow if there's different innovations within different chips. I mean, the fact that Nvidia bought Grock to in improve their LPU architecture on the chips, you have some people saying that's a bare case for memory in of itself because it makes the chips more efficient and not necessarily needing as much HPM. Now, that's widely disputed as well. But one bad headline on these broader bottlenecks maybe makes them not a bottleneck. But if the bottleneck thesis continues, then obviously that growth probably continues as well. Yeah, LWLG, this is another one in that photonic space. 1725, that's up another 6%.
in the pre-markets as well. It's also a little bit bearish when the institutional guys come out with their research because you know that largely means the move has been done and you know a lot of the alpha has already been achieved. So that yes is going to validate a lot of the thesis. The question is going to be is there any alpha left for that thesis or is the alpha going to be worth the riskreward?
Uh you know going after a lot of those different names. Um Nvidia a lot of people ask why is Nvidia down? I see a lot of comments about why is Nvidia down. I think there's a couple reasons.
Number one, Cerebrris is getting ready to IPO. They're going to raise about four billion. I think the valuation is going to be something along the lines of 20 to 30 billion. I do not know enough about Cerebras. I know that they have a deal with OpenAI and they make some of these custom chips. However, um Cerebrris has been painted by the media as the Nvidia killer. Again, I really have not done research into these guys. They don't even know quite frankly anything about the innovation in their technology. But I think this is part of the reason the street's getting a little not bearish but just you know concerned about different elements of Nvidia.
Obviously Nvidia stock has been stuck for a while. The fact that it gave up to 200s last week is also kind of concerning. And then to a lesser extent I do think this is something that maybe not affected Nvidia because Nvidia is just too big for this to affect it. But this still matters. One of the biggest Nvidia bulls, one of the earliest Nvidia bulls, who has a $20 trillion target on the company by 2030, Beth Kinding, sold 75% of her Nvidia. I'll link the article right here. I read the article last night. Uh but essentially the thesis of the article was we want to buy custom AS6 and companies that are more rooted in the uh inference part of the stack when it comes to uh the overall AI ecosystem versus just the training part of the stack. And and again, they're up I don't even know how many thousands of percent on Nvidia, but 75% is a hell of an amount to I mean, I could understand 10 20 30%, but that's like a significant reduction of uh their Nvidia stock. And this is, you know, she's been one of the biggest bulls. The article right here goes into a lot of technical analysis around Nvidia as well. And you know, whether you believe in the TA or not, their argument is that the TA is horrible on Nvidia and you just don't see buyers coming in at the levels that they should be coming in. and they think there's one more flush potentially 220 to 230 and then after that it's downhill. Now, it's hard to imagine that from one perspective because every AI stock is running except Nvidia, but Nvidia is kind of the reason for a lot of these AI names to get momentum, but maybe that's being questioned given, you know, CPUs might be a bigger reason than just GPUs given the advance of what we've seen from Intel earnings. And so, there's other reasons why the AI stocks are running outside of Nvidia. But the point is Nvidia's kind of kicked off this whole revolution. Obviously, it's worth 5 trillion, but it's not getting the most benefit from the amount of money uh that is being spent by the hyperscalers. And I think this was a good point on the Olan podcast as well over the weekend. Essentially, the money is not flowing into the hyperscalers.
The money is flowing out of the hyperscalers and people are chasing the hardware companies that these hyperscalers are spending all their money on. It had these very assetike business models, right? You just build some more software and it just has all this leverage and it all just kind of worked except maybe for Amazon because they needed physical infrastructure for warehouses and delivery and whatnot. But by and large it was a very asset light investment cycle. Now all of a sudden the pendulum is swinging violently in the other direction. And there's something that I think people misunderstand which is as it moves back to these asset heavy infrastructure investments.
The hyperscalers are signing checks that I mean I suspect their body can cash but there's a world in which they can't.
I'll give you an example. You know when Microsoft convinced the owners of Three Mile Island to turn their >> nuclear site back on?
>> Yeah.
>> Do you know what their Ford purchase agreement was? It was for more than 2x the prevailing spot rate for energy.
More than 2x. The problem is that's not for an enormous percentage of their overall energy needs.
So if you play that out and you think these five or six companies all of a sudden are not just spending Jason 700 billion a year of capex which they are but then from an operating cash flow they're going to be spending 2x the prevailing spot rate because they just want guaranteed demand into the future.
Where's all this cash going to go? It's he goes on to say that he can't make a valuation case for a lot of these companies because they're spending all this cash. My disagreement with that is that there will be a day where the hyperscaler stops spending as much as they're spending on capex. And that is when their stocks are going to literally explode because the day Google says, "Yeah, we don't need to spend $190 billion on capex anymore. It won't be good for the microns of the world, but it will be really good for the Googles of the world, the metas of the world, the Microsofts, because all that money is going to go back to shareholders and sharebacks, dividend, share buybacks, dividends, and obviously free cash flow yield. So, the multiple compression that we're seeing on a Microsoft or a Meta, I think, is the opportunity, not the thing to be afraid of. But the but it's a long-term opportunity. The short-term opportunity is that if Meta is going to be spending another 10 billion on capex, which is why it fell 200 billion in market cap apparently uh and that capex directly or indirectly will find its way into the AM cores of the world, the Intels of the world, the AMDs of the world, the microns of the world, then the short-term opportunity is to buy Micron, not Meta, even though the long-term safer play is obviously probably going to be Meta over Micron.
And I think that's where the market is divided on right now. You either believe that, you know, Micron is a way better buy than Meta right now and Micron's going to 800 while Meta stays stuck at 600 over the coming months or you think Micron is unsustainably part you know benefiting from this massive memory boom and bust cycle which is inevitably going to bust and you don't know when it's going to bust and as a result you're afraid to bet it but you know Meta is probably never going to bust in the way that a super cyclical semiconductor name can bust and you're on the sidelines of it. I I think that's the two different perspectives that exist. Obviously, there's different agreements on those perspectives, which is what makes a market, and the bulls are winning right now, which is why these semiconductor names have been doing as much as they're doing. Yeah, DRAM. This ETF is a massive ETF. If you don't want to pick a memory name and you just want to go long memory, up another 4%, it's up 50% for the year. Already has a couple billion dollars in AUM. This is another easy way to just get access to memory by not having to pick. Now, granted, if you're buying it at these prices, you're functionally buying all the memory stocks at their current prices. Even if you're not literally paying $500 for micron per share, uh you know, you're paying the appropriate proportional allocation of that inside of DRAM. So, if those names go down, DRAM will go down. But that is another ETF that has gotten a lot of momentum. Tenure just crossed 4.4.
Looking kind of ugly here. Let's see in the next two minutes when the market opens if these 10 years and these uh if these 10ear and these Japanese five and 30 years actually matter to the market or if this is going to be a bit more ugly than not. AMD again it was up last night ended up going just red in the pre-markets now flipping green at 360.
Lots and lots of these semi-names have been making their move.
First week of May, we're going to see if the semiconductor names can keep this market going. Obviously, Pounder today, that'll be a big one. I talked about it last night throughout the show. We'll talk more about some of the Pounder earnings previews. I think they're going to crush it. We'll see if Software can get a breakout. That would obviously be very good for Paler.
Pouncer already getting a little bit of a breakout uh in the pre-markets and hopefully that one crushes. cuz you got AMD tomorrow and then we'll figure out where this market wants to go.
5 seconds. 5 seconds before everyone officially wakes up. Monday, May the 4th be with you. 9:30 a.m. The stock market is now open.
All right, wake your asses up. Let's get into it. Palunteer opens up at 148 148 on Palanteer. That's up about 2.64%.
Qualcomm up 1.4%. Micron up 4%. SanDisk 3.8.
Sandisk continues its run again. It fell below a,000 on those earnings, rebounding 1,200, got 1,200 uh got 1,400 to $2,000 targets across the board on Friday on those earnings. Again, they beat by 80%. The numbers were incredible. That's up 3.2% as we saw today. Meta goes red. Microsoft goes red. Exactly what we were talking about right before the bell. The hyperscalers that are spending all the money that will inevitably benefit a micron or a sandisk are not getting the flows of capital. The microns and the sandisks are. And that's how the market is rewarding and punishing these different companies that are allocating capital.
Micron up 4.5, SanDisk up 3.5, Novo's up half a percent, Amazon back to 270. That is Green Nebus, which had a good headline over the weekend. Apparently, Microsoft paid for their deal 40% on the prepay, which I think is very bullish because that means Nebius doesn't have to dilute shareholders or issue debt to be able to raise 40% of the working capital that they had for that deal.
Someone found that out in one of the 10Ks and I think that is a very important detail. Neb right there 161 back up 5% to start the day. Bitcoin did hit 80 last night. Bitcoin just below 80 right now 78894 and that's really good for Hood uh at 7628 that's up 3.4 3.4% also very good for Micro Strategy which is actually up 17% on the year. So Micro Strategy has not had a horrible year.
181 that's up 2.2% as well. Kind of bottomed around 120. New bank 1434 that is red. Galaxy that's up 1.7%.
Appin 463 that's up 1%. Roku's up 23.
Cororeweave 123 following Nebus right there. That's up 5%. I ren 4725 that's up 4%. Zeta, are we getting a dump? We are. Yeah, I would say that's basically a dump. 1804.
Uh this is my fear with the software companies. No matter how good the earnings growth is, no matter how good the revenue growth is, you know, maybe the street doesn't care. Obviously, we saw that with some of the other names that reported, but Zeta right there 18 bucks. That one's down. Salesforce up a little bit. Service Now is that up a little bit. Service Now actually getting a little bit more of a breakout. 19240.
Nebius 163. Alltime high is 168.
Got to see if that breaks up. Amazon 271. That continues to go green. Bloom Energy which actually fell to 270 is now looking to go to 300. So the dips here are very short and far in between. 268 it hit last week from a, you know, if you want to call it 290 to 260 a dip, but that was the dip and now back up to 297. Reddit Reddit had a great quarter.
I went through their numbers again over the weekend. It was just a good quarter.
Like it was just a really really good quarter. Uh it makes me think Apploven's going to have a good quarter as well when it comes to advertising, but I mean Reddit, AppLeven, and Pounder are the only companies that are growing above 70%. which is part of the reason I think Pounder is going to crush it today because at the end of the day, yes, they're a software company, but if you grow at a level that you need to grow at, and I think Pounder could come in at potentially 80 85% growth. Street's only expecting 74%.
That's what the street needs to once again believe that, you know, if we're betting on growth, Pounder is one of the companies that can deliver that growth.
Oracle, are we going up? We are going up three and a half, four%. So, you've got the Neoclouds continuing to make a broader move. How about Intel? This was 100 last night.
9760. That's down 2.3. So, Intel coming down a little bit. Only 74%. Yeah, only 74. But, you know, if the street's expecting only 74%.
They got to be able to beat that. Wow.
Zeta, quick recovery. 18 to 1850.
Sorry. It went from 1850 to 1794, right back to 1850. So, that was a pretty violent move down as that one's trying to recover right there. Amazon 272.
That's going up. Robin Hood loving the Bitcoin momentum. 77. That's up 5%.
Salesforce up one. Service now up two.
IGV are we at almost at 90. IGV 8793.
Just a couple bucks away from that level. And Micron continues to go up 570 Dores for Mr. uh Mr. Micron. Where is crude? It was at 103. Let's pull it up right now. Oh, Xandu, does anyone know why this Well, I I I kind of know, but I don't know that much about why this is down. Uh, this thing is down 65%.
A bunch of people were talking about it last week. Uh, Quantum Canadian company, XNDU, I believe they issued a lot more shares than expected in their um recent dilution this morning. That I think that's the reason this thing went down.
I mean, it was $7 on April 8th. It went to $42 on April 16th. And now it's back at $12. Yeah, mega dilution, right?
Okay, so there you go. I looked at a little bit of their filings this morning and it looks like it was just way more shares than expected. Crude almost red 102 if we lose another 15 cents. We're going red on crude. Robin Hood 77.25.
Palenteer trying to go for 150. Circles up 9%. Coinbase up five. So all of those assets loving the Bitcoin move. Uh Bitcoin has hit 80,000 for the first time in a couple months. So I think that hopefully is a bullish signal. Nebius 16871 is the all-time high. So it has not hit all-time highs yet. It's about 70 cents away, but we did touch 168 so far. 52 week high I have is 16871.
Blackberry that is up 10%. The Wall Street Journal put out an article over the weekend about BlackBerry. This is one we talked about last week. Um a lot of people think of it as a you know phone company. It's now software that is inside of 270 million cars. They have a partnership with Nvidia. I think it's something people should keep on their watch list. It's definitely a name even as a trade that can take off. No Kia as well has been getting a lot more buzz down 1% right here. Went from 10 to 13.
Nvidia owns 2.9% of the company. They have a partnership with Anderil and they're getting a lot more people thinking that the chart looks incredible. I mean, there was 700,000 calls traded on Friday on Nokia, 100,000 puts. So, the put call ratio is pretty skewed to the calls and a lot of that money is betting on it making a move at least to around 20 bucks. AMD going red 1.82%. That's down. Did Nvidia crack 200? Okay, nice to see Nvidia coming back to 200.
Wow. Pounder going for 150.
She is trying to go for 150 here. Uh 201140 on Nvidia Nebius. Uh 20. Wow. 9% move on Mr. Nabis here.
I mean let's see. Let's see if this one breaks through. Oh, there it is. 16945.
That's alltime highs. Just busted through 16870. All right. 170. Let me check resistance on Nebas.
The remaining Nebia shares I have I have never sold calls on. Uh partly because I sold half of my Nebas way too early. So didn't want to cap the upside on the rest of them. And so let's let her run.
Let's go to 200.
Let's go to 200. 170 has 24,000 shares.
24,000 shares sitting at 170. Robin at 7760. Sound continuing that move up from last week 1.73. How about Irene? I ran also. Let's see if Daniel can make a move for us on Friday and give us some green. Is SoFi moving?
SoFi is moving. That's up 2% as well.
Wow, we're making a pretty big move across the entire market. The things that are down, Rocket Lab, Space not catching a bid. Broadcom selling off a little bit. Vyavi, which had a massive earnings move last week. Can't blame that one for taking a breather. Celsius, that's down 1%. Adobee is actually going red. ESTs going red. Fastley, which also had a big move last week. That one chilling out. JetBlue, that's up. Oh, Spirit's done. Spirit's bankrupt.
The United States decided not to save it. So, Spirit is uh officially going out of business.
And yeah, sucks to see them lose that many jobs, but unfortunately could not come to an agreement with the US. Wow. Nebas 170 170 Dolores on Mr. Nebius.
I mean, this has got to be one of the most incredible stocks we've had this year in the broader Neo cloud sector. I mean, this thing does just does not s Your dip was at 130.
Your dip was at 130. Micron, your dip was at 520. It's at 574, up 6%.
As this one continues to go green. Is there any news on the Neil clouds? I mean, there was news on Nebius in in the in the fact that people found out Microsoft paid 40% prepaid for their deal, but outside of that, I don't think there's any m Iran had a uh news on Friday. They cleared, they energized street water, which I believe is one of the names of the data center or the facility. I don't know exactly what it is, but that was the headline. They secured more energy from my understanding was the takeaway. And maybe that's why that's up 7%. But overall, I think the market just continues to be bullish. The data center stack, JetBlue, that's up 3.8%. S&P actually slight, sorry, street water.
Yeah, S&P 719, that's down. Google's also down 382.
Did I say Sweetwater?
Oh, did I say Street Water? Oh, it is Sweetwater. Okay. Yeah, let me pull it up. Let me pull up the exact headline, but that came out on Friday, which the street got excited about. MXL that is also up 6%. This was up 50%. Iran announced a successful energization of street sweet water 1.4 gawatts at a data center in Texas. So that was the news on Friday. If they could follow that up with a new hyperscaler deal on Thursday, I think the street would be excited about it. Intel is down, Qualcomm is down. Qualcomm down five, AMD down three. Okay, so your CPU stocks taking a bit of a beating here. Not sure exactly why, but obviously the charts have gone crazy. Maybe that money rotating a little bit into some of the crypto plays to be honest as those are definitely getting some momentum. Amazon 271 pound here trying to go for 150 trying to go for 150 software is also up and by the way I mean if you haven't looked at a semis over software chart it is very compelling for the thesis to be made that uh software probably deserves a premium relative to semis given the magnitude of the run. Now, if the market continues to think software is dead, then that won't happen. But, I mean, it it just looks like you could argue that software should catch a bid. I mean, take a look at this chart. Hedge funds are as a percentage of total holdings massively long semis and massively short software.
And if there was any time for that to flip, it would be now. And even if semis take a 10% haircut, most of them are still going to be up a lot for the year.
If software gains 10%, most of them will still be down 30 to 40% for the year.
So, or 30 40% for multi-time highs. Um, so maybe we do see a little bit of a flip into some of the software names.
Wow, Nebby is 172 not stopping at all once again making the move higher and leading the NEO clouds as Cororeweave participating.
Coreweave is 127. We haven't seen 127 in a minute. Last time was November 2025.
November 2025. Last time we saw Corave anywhere near the 130s and around that time it kind of gapped up to that 187 level. Micron as well 580.
Either you believe this is a parabolic move in the final wave of a meltup which I know a lot of people have theorized over the weekend as well. uh stage five in their Elliot waves that are going massively parabolic and eventually it will result in a catastrophic downturn or you're on the side that no memory is a bottleneck compute is a bottleneck and meta and Microsoft have negative free cash flow even though coreweave and nebus don't have profits they are showing way more growth and that's where the streets rotating to and and and quite frankly that might be how the thesis plays out for the coming months as we've seen that already play out m meta continuing to get hit.
Absolutely crazy. 60525 as that one continues to go down. Avalon says, "At this time, I've become a nebious millionaire."
Congratulations. I mean, that's the cool thing about these retailoriented names.
Uh, you know, a lot of people say it's risky to go all in one stock, but quite frankly, diversification is not really the path objectively to mass about performance. You've got to pick your horses and let them ride. And I would imagine Nebius has made a lot of people some money if not millionaires just like a lot of other names have done over the coming or over the previous years. Um these are the opportunities, right? These are why these are the reasons for why we invest app loaning 4%. There you go. That is going up. The googs is I don't even know if you can call this a dip. It's up 500 billion in market cap over the past week. So down 64% to me is not a dip.
Apple is a little bit more of a dip. 283 to 276.
That one's down, but I don't think anyone can be too upset about that. Any thoughts on space?
I think the space trade is not uh exciting until SpaceX really pumps up the market with their IPO. And I think you're seeing that right now with Lunar, SpaceX, Rocket Lab. I mean, again, Rocket Lab gave some great dip opportunities below 70 and even below uh 60 during March.
It's just, you know, the goal is for this thing to get to 100. That's kind of, I think, the main target that people have, but you're going to need a very strong level of FOMO essentially on the SpaceX IPO for people to play it as a proxy, whether it's AS, Lunar, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, etc. Now, a lot of those stocks are also up a lot for the year, but the ones that are down, you know, are a bit disappointing to people because again, it's not space, it's not fintech, it's not financials. Financials are actually down 5% for the year, XLF, which is another reason I forgot to mention this morning. Part of the reason I think people are bearish is because usually in a bull market, the financials like actually participate. There's not been a single bull market where financials don't go up because they're financials. They're a super important part of the economy. It's a little weird that this entire rally has been driven only by tech and selective tech, not even big tech, and then semiconductors and pretty much nothing else.
Which, you know, one might say it's not that weird because that's where all the earnings growth is. That's where all the capex is going. That's the bull case.
The bare case is, well, wait a second.
Can this really be sustainable long term without the other big companies participating? So, it's not the Grabs, it's not the Shopifies, it's not the Hoods, it's not the Sofis, it's not the Rocket Labs, it's the Microns, the SanDisks, the Oracles, the Nebuses, the AOIS, like that, it's it's a very obvious rotation into the companies that benefit from Capix, I think that's like where the market is is playing right now. The fact that Zoom is up 3% because Enthropic is raising $50 billion and putting their valuation at 900 billion and the only reason Zoom is up is because they have a $5 billion stake in Enthropic goes to show you where this money is uh is rotating to. Where is Ethereum today? Are we down? We are down about 2%. BTC again also just below just below 79,000.
AMD keeps dumping. It is indeed dumping today. I would say 4% is a dump. But once again, it's up a lot. I hate saying it, but like I feel like in this market environment, you have to like remind people like this thing was at 270 3 weeks ago. It's at 348, which is down from 365, but it's up a lot. Micron up 8%. I don't think there's any massive memory headline today. I mean, I know SKH popped. Maybe that's just helping all the other memory stocks catch bid.
EWI, that's up 3.4%. about South Korea.
U Nebius almost 173, but I think that's what's helping Micron. Nebius. It hit did hit 173. Now there it is right back 17320 on Nebius.
It's pretty incredible, dude. Pretty incredible the level of momentum on uh some of these names. Here's here here's my other question for people. How many people now are saying screw it if I'm not heavy in the semis I'm going heavier or if I'm already heavy in the semis I'm going heavier.
I'm curious how many people are saying all right you know I might have missed Micron Intel Sandisk but I still believe there's upside and I'm buying them at these levels or I missed Nebius but I'm buying it at 173 you know or I missed Qualcomm and this 5% dip you know when it was at 180 now it's at 168. That's my opportunity. I missed it at 130. I'm But like I am curious how many people have the stomach to buy these charts and not buy Meta and Microsoft right here, which honestly might be the better decision in the short term. Like Micron probably is going up when Meta is going down. But how many people are willing to do that I think is a deep question.
No, no, no.
Some people saying yes, I I double down.
I'm trimming more of my semis than not.
Kyle said I just sold another cash put on Micron.
Kyle, you have a lot of micron.
I think you have a lot of micron. Do a poll for this. Okay, this is probably a good poll question because look, for me it's tough, dude. It is tough. There's a psychological element that makes it tough to buy a micron at 580. And then there's also the element of if here's the way I think of it. If Micron goes down from here, which it doesn't have to, but let's say it does, I have no one to blame but myself. I cannot blame anybody if a micron goes down from here because any, you know, rational investor looks at this chart and says, "Look, the chart could keep going up, but if you buy it at that little tippy top right there, which might not be the tippy top, but if it ends up being at least the short-term tippy top, you and you alone are the only person playing. This is not the S&P 500 that just goes up in a in a straight line over a thousand years, right? This is an individual stock that has individual dynamics. You can't just say, "Oh, it'll just keep going up." You have to actually believe in the thesis.
And if you're wrong, then you know, you're going to be bag holding it. So, I think it's just psychologically a little tough to lean into that momentum. But then again the bull case is if if if this bull market continues in across semis and we are under supplied when it comes to to memory then why wouldn't there be a meaningful thesis to buy it assuming yeah that boom bust cycle is real but that cycle might not happen for another couple years you know which means there's alpha I think that is the question okay so the poll is are you doubling down on semis aka you Now if you don't have semi semis are you doubling down by just getting a lot more and if you already have it are you increasing your exposure or are you a net trimmer of these semiconductor names in video right there 1990 1990 dude you've been saying that for months just buy it look I love you guys but I also do not want to take the risks sometimes with buying a parabolic name because if that parabolic name goes down at the end of the day it's my money that's at risk at $584 a share versus people who bought this name at $200 $300 you know that that it's like it's a very hard thing to grapple with and and again this is why I asked how many people are going to buy a chart that's up I mean how many people are buying Sandis up 400 I mean theoretically if you believe in that thesis then you sell everything and you go all in on these names because this is where all the alpha is but I just don't know how many people have the stomach to do What if you hit it with a stop loss?
Yeah, I mean obviously but that that is a trading position. It's not really an investment. I'm not talking about trading. I mean I might swing a couple shares for the hell of it because why not? But that's not that's not the question. The question is are you buying Micron with a thesis that if it goes down to 500 I'm buying the dip? Like whenever I think of an investment I think of okay I'm buying a Sandis at 1240 and if it goes down to 1,000 that's a great opportunity, right? As an investor I should be happy if I buy something and it goes down because I want to buy the dip.
And so I think I think that is a uh a broader question here. The reason I I bought Irene on the dip at 42 was because I thought Nebius was massively upperforming. I ran was getting too much hate. I ran wow 10% up right here and so I bought that dip. Now Micron probably should have bought it at 320 but you know there were other things that I bought at the time as well. Um and everything basically went up from then.
So that now you have to reevaluate everything compared to everything else in this new bull market that we're in and say okay is it a good deal at 586 at these levels and I don't know and I think 65% of you agree as you're saying no you're not doubling down on the 70s I bought Oracle at 135 why because it felt or 137 to be exact Oracle 180 because it felt stupid that this stock was very important in the data center ecosystem you could call it the ultimate neo cloud with 500 billion in backlog on RPO but it was down software for no reason.
So, you know, some of these things made sense on the dip.
Now, at 180, I I don't know if Oracle is the best buy, right? Like, maybe it is.
But if it's not, and if it goes back down to 170, even though it's up from 130, you know, who do you blame if you bought it at 180? Corewave right there, 129. Is Cororeweave a buy at 129 here, right? Up from 67.
Maybe in four years it is. But is this the best entry point? And I guess is the question to sell your loser like a novo this year and say screw it I'm going into coreweave or sell your Microsoft or Meta that's been an absolute loser both of those this year and say screw it I'm going into Nebia at 175. Like that's my question. How many how much of the market is really doing that and maybe it's a lot more than than we think.
It feels like gold and silver on January 29th. Yeah. I mean look the the chart on semis looks very similar to the chart on gold and we talked about that last week with with a comparison of that silver down two today gold down 1.4 for you know there's a lot of euphoria when gold and silver was pumping and then as soon as it crashed everyone was like oh yeah it's not sustainable for it to go up like that now the difference between gold and silver those are macro assets and a sandis has actual earnings a micron is actual earnings but you can make a reasonable case micron's worth $1,000 if you put a reasonable PE on it and not a seven times forward but again how many people have the stomach to buy it when it's already gone massively parabolic or even you know, raise your cost bases on it if you bought it at these lower levels. Adobe goes red, Fastley's red, Apple 27650.
That is also potentially red.
Xandu Leaps of a 99 delta. This thing's still down 60%. 63%.
As that one continues to be down, Nebius, are we going for 20% today?
Nebas is 12%. Is there a 2x Nebius that's out there?
Is there a 2x Nebius?
We have to see. I ran 10% up.
Uh, Sandis 5, Q675. That one trying to make an all-time high. And then lo and 477. Nokiia, someone just bought 2 million of $18 call strikes for September 18th. This one again continues to get more of a bid. NEBX that's the 2x levered one.
How much does this have aumum?
How many people are 2x levered on this?
SOXL again continues to reach new highs in terms of the leverage there. Neb is about 200 million bucks in AUM which you know Neb is not the biggest name in the world. So the fact that it's attracted that much capital is quite impressive.
So, I ran 50 SanDisk up five and a half.
Emit, did you say you never trade? No, I never said that. When did I say I never trade?
Do I do trades all the time?
It's not like the biggest part of my investing style, but yeah, trades are trades. Like, there's plenty of trades I've done in my life.
I'm just not, you know, not every decision I make is is rooted in a trade.
And so like again if if I end up buying a micron to me that's going to be a trade. Like even Oracle to me is a trade. Now maybe it might become an investment because you know I have an attractive cost basis margin of safety.
I'm starting to believe more in their vision. Well buying at 137 was not meant to you know be some long-term investment. It's just now I'm like well it's probably not going back to 137. So there's not that big of a reason to sell.
But like okay here's another question.
If you're buying Micron today at 587 would that be a trade or investment for you? Because here's a here's something that you know Jose and me were talking over the weekend. Jose he put out a video he got a lot of [ __ ] for saying I love Micron but I can't buy it. So a lot of [ __ ] in the comments. Um but one of the things he mentioned to me is like you know Micron's $400 billion away from being a trillion dollar company. If it became a trillion dollar company how many people think it will stay as a trillion dollar because you're buying this for the upside right? It's at 660 billion. So anyone who's new buying it today, like myself for example, if I were to buy it today, I'm assuming this thing at least is going to 800 billion, 750 billion, minimum 700 billion.
Otherwise, why the hell would you be buying it here? Which then begs the question, over the next few years, can Micron sustain a trillion dollar valuation? Can Intel sustain a trillion dollar valuation? Intel is trading at 60 times forward earnings, not current, but forward. Um, but it's at half a trillion dollar market cap. If this thing goes to a trillion, will it sustain a trillion?
I think the reason people are willing to buy Nvidia at 5 trillion is because they can imagine Nvidia getting up to that 1020 trillion valuation because what they built is not as easily commoditized as some of the other players in the stack.
Obviously, the bulls push back and say that whatever is commoditized isn't as commoditized. And you know, that's what creates the valuation discrepancy. Nabi has 175 75 as that's not stopping.
Um, US gas prices 446. We looked at that last night. Highest level since July 22.
Again, I think that's also scaring off the bond yields. Roblox, by the way, up 5% after that was down 25%. What's pushing Nebus? don't know to be honest I but it's not just Nebus it's all the neoclouds I mean yes there is a Microsoft headline with Nebius over the weekend but it's not like a new deal or anything core we've also though 9% as that continues to go green micron can hold a trillion for at least more than five years if that is the case then it's a good buy it's probably a better buy than the Mac 7s here as Nvidia goes red as we talked trillion dollar company is the biggest one can barely hold on to 200. Um, but again, you know, part of the reason why Costco gets a higher premium than Nvidia on its PE. We've talked about this so many times, but there's predictable cash flows in Costco, there's theoretically unpredictable cash flows in Nvidia for whatever reason, whatever bare case you want to put up on it, there could be a bare case that's out there. Um, whereas, you know, people are going to be buying stuff from Costco for a long time. If even a whiff of that sentiment enters into the supply chain names that are part of this AI ecosystem, that is where things get, you know, potentially a little bit more ugly. The Q's right there, 675. Shopify also going down.
Oh, that's the other thing. Oh, that's the other big news. Yes, that's correct.
Thank you, Seb, for that. OpenAI is now using Clickhouse. I forgot about that. I did see that headline over the weekend.
um they've transitioned from one of their other providers to ClickHouse and Nebius has a 28% stake in that which is already worth what is it like 78 billion bucks. So you could kind of subtract that from the market cap you get a more relevant enterprise value. uh that that along with that Microsoft prepaid news is probably the reason why you're getting a move right here on the basis and NQ is that pumping and Q4750% of you guys say no you are not doubling down on semis see it's a really weird thing or situation to be in if you're not super super levered in semis already and and I think you know people can relate with this. If your names this year, let's just throw SoFi in there is not doing what it needs to do and you don't see the upside in SoFi even though you love or believe in the company. Do you get the hell out of it and replace SoFi with any of the names that have not really worked this year because they're in the wrong sector, wrong theme, the market's just not feeling them. And then do you ape in to a micron or a nebius at these levels even if they dip and you say you know what I'd rather hold on to a micron at 589 let it dip to 530 and buy that dip versus be stuck in so 58 because I know I'm in the right sector or do you tell yourself this is stupid that this stock has gone up so much I can't justify buying it right here. Maybe it'll keep going up but eventually the opportunity cost is not worth being stuck in a name that hasn't done anything.
I think that's what a lot of people are grappling with right now. Amazon 271 service now 9230.
No, because the fintech rotation will be back. See, but I think a lot of people are question. I mean, the reason the semis are getting this massive bid is because I think a lot of people are asking themselves if that fintech rotation actually will be back.
And if it's not going to be back soon enough, is it better to just buy the stuff that's working? Wow. Meta dump 603.
Palinger as well touched 149, now down to 146.
your software names once again getting some red candles here as these are getting hit. You can always buy back. Yeah, but the fear is like the the sort of typical retail investor fear is I I'm long SoFi. I'm down 20% of the year. I sell my SoFi at 1650. I buy Micron at 600 and then SoFi goes to 19.
Micron goes to 500. And yeah, I can switch and buy back. But now I'm just like tossing and turning and I'm literally buying low, selling high or sorry, buying high, selling low just to be able to get into a position that I rotated out of because I had FOMO. Like, you know, that's the fear for everyone who's stuck in a loser trying to transition for a winner if the winner stops winning for a certain amount of time simply because who knows, the chart has just gone too parabolic. 5113 on Iran.
as that one continues to make moves.
Salesforce still up about 1.3.
The New York Times did report that Alphabet TPUs can't be used in some classified context. I don't think that was massive news. I also think if Google's down for that reason, it's kind of dumb because that's not necessarily a problem with Google. That's just them making sure their TPUs can uh be ready for classified environments. But yeah, that was a headline this morning. 38199.
It was overall a productive meeting with Alphabet and the White House. And I think this is just like a function of that meeting. At least I didn't interpret that as being um bearish. Uh Intel just appointed one of the heads of Qualcomm to be the client and AI group CTO, Alex Katzian.
Katzian, EVP and GM of client computing and physical AI. So, Intel taking some folks from Qualcomm and getting them into the company. The tenure is this still bumping up? It is indeed 4.442.
You've got Blackberries that's still making its move. That was up a lot more.
Still up on the day, but it's down.
Poet 768, again, one of the only photonics that hasn't done anything all year. The Goldman report, I think over the weekend, is pumping that. That's up 5%. And then your memory names just going absolutely crazy. Micron at 592.
Where is Seagate and Western? Seagate at 742 and Western that was down last week.
That one has flipped green 453 as that one's green. Carvana is down. They actually had a decent earnings. This thing has been shorted pretty much all year. Popped to 440 last week, April 29th. Now back down to 373.
Mid, have you checked on Steve? He might be having a stroke with the meta movement. I don't think it's just Steve, dude. I mean, how many people are long meta? Put in the chat. I think a lot of people here. I mean, this was the number one call everyone wanted to see on the uh on the big tech earnings day.
Obviously, was a disappointment. The call was a disappointment and the the earnings price action was a disappointment. I don't think the earnings itself was a disappointment.
The earnings were fantastic, but Zucks didn't sound like he wanted to be there at all. Um, but it sucks, right? Like I it it really sucks to see a high quality company like this that probably should be a $900 to$1,000 stock. If you look at basic multiples on the types of growth they're putting up not catch a single bid because potentially the supply chain names inside of the AI stack are just more relevant or more important even if their margins, their profits, their growth is not the same as Meta. DRAM up 7% right there.
I also think people are crying too much about meta now. Now everyone wants to scream about the bear case. People like, "Oh, no one uses Facebook." It's like, "All right, come on." Like you sound like the people that are saying memory is cyclical, which maybe memory will be cyclical, but obviously that narrative can't really be used right now as a barecase uh on the price action because the price action has shown that memory is not cyclical. The the price a the DAUs of Facebook has shown that people use Facebook. I don't use it anymore. You might not use it anymore, but 3.8 8 billion people every day use that platform. So it's like people are coming out with just weird bear cases now around Facebook or Meta in general. It's like did we forget they just grew 33%.
Like on a two trillion dollar base that that is not easy to do at scale and they only increased capex by 10 billion. It's not like it was a massive increase. And but but they don't have a cloud business. They don't sell external comput. So the street wasn't happy about it. Nvidia continues to go red.
continues to get hit and goes red. It's fake growth because they're bots. I mean, look, the ad look, every time someone says that, you have to look at the revenue growth. The advertisers are still paying. Now, if it's all fake, this is the bot argument doesn't make that much sense to me because the advertisers won't pay unless they get an ROI. If it's all bots viewing the ads, no one's going to click on the the ads to buy stuff, which means the advertisers will stop paying. So even if you say there are bots, which I'm sure a certain percentage of it is on any platform, if the advertising demand is still there because advertisers are seeing the ROI, then it's real people that are ultimately buying these products. Unless the bots are buying products, which I don't think is the case because someone has to pay for that. And I doubt Facebook's subsidizing bots to, you know, buy stuff from their ads. So the revenue growth is still there and it's there at a level that, you know, we haven't really seen on a company of this scale.
which pushes back against that that bare case. Roku, that's also up 2% as well. Yeah, I mean, look, we don't have to go through the meta bull case again, but the bull case is there. I I just think, you know, because the price action is down, people want to say Met is dead. Same thing with Microsoft.
But once again, buying these names when a micron's going up 4% every day. It is very tough psychologically, I think, for people to navigate that, especially if your name is putting up good earnings and it's just not getting any love. Nebius down to 172 from 176.
What's your thoughts on Regetti Computing? Uh, overall the quantum space has always been confusing to me. I do think there was a bullcase for it. Um, again, it's hard for me to be super excited about that bullcase. I think until I think we see something materialize meaningfully. But Regetti, at least what I've heard is like not the exciting name here. The exciting names are D-Wave, NQ, and then I mean last week it was Xandu. I don't know if this dilution affects people's bullcase on it, but D-Wave and NQ are the ones that people really care about.
Uh even the the reality CEO has come out and said, "Don't expect any real commercial progress from us for the next 10 years." Like he's point blank said it. The IO and QCO is a little bit more optimistic about killing Nvidia GPUs by 2027, but that seems to one that that gets more of a bid. SanDisk up 7%. LWLG Lightwave Logic, another photonics play. That's up 2.5. Where is Amcore today? Amcor basically flat but slightly green.
Tanner says, "I'm yelling at my phone to roll these Nebia covered calls."
Yeah, I think Tanner has them at 160. I think a lot of people have them at around 1605.
Yeah, this name has just been incredible. 11.5% up on the day. IBM, Google, yep, those are also quantum plays. That's hard to ignore.
Benny says, "If someone has knowledge, conviction, and memories in semis, they should own them and invest routinely. If someone doesn't, they should not own semis and and own something else." Yeah, and I mean, look, it's really important to remember price action drives a lot of sentiment. When Micron fell to 300, the amount of people that were saying it's over, it's a scam, the memory's done, yada yada. Now, if you weren't one of those people and you were buying the dip, kudos, right? But that sentiment was there and I don't think the narrative has flipped that much because nothing has really happened in the past 45 days for Micron there. There hasn't been some massive new update or anything. It's just the stock went up and now the sentiment is now memory is can never fail because memory is the greatest investment story in the current state of the markets. If it tanks on earnings for whatever reason and the earnings are amazing, the sentiment might end up flipping again. So I do think it's important to understand how much sentiment is driven from this price action. And you know if Micron was still stuck at 400 I I wonder how many people would still be so excited about it but it's not right which is why I think more and more people continue to be on the side that it can continue to work.
Service now same thing sentiment you know when this thing was pushing 120 software wasn't dead fell to 85 on earnings software is back to being dead.
Does this end up reversing that narrative trend if the stock starts going up a little bit? 9282 as that's up 1.8%.
What do you think about what Tom Lee said? So Tom Lee over the weekend reiterated his thesis that we will fall 20% from 7,300.
Uh the logic behind why he said it is that in 10 of the last 13 Fed chairs that were appointed uh worsh will be appointed in the next five weeks uh 10 out of 13 times the market fell about 12% on average. So his argument is it's more of a rule not the exception that when we have a new Fed chair we will see a collapse. Now, he concluded by saying, "Don't time the market even if you're tempted to. We will go down, but we will rally to what he says will be the best rally, one of the best rallies we've seen in our lifetimes back to 7,700 by the end of the year. But this will be a Fed driven rally, not like an Iran or oil or crazy inflation driven uh down the downward move. It it'll be because of the Fed." So, is he's basically using historical precedent to say this will happen again, which I mean, who knows, right? 10 out of 13 times. That is his logic right here. So, you know, there's a 77% chance that maybe that repeats itself.
But if it doesn't, what if it's just a vicious bull market to the upside and you know, the market doesn't care about Kevin Worsh or they don't care about testing Kevin Worsh. Now, the more oil continues to be up makes it harder to ignore that we've got some underlying issues. Oil at 102 right now, but maybe that's how it plays out. eBay right there at 1083 as that is also green on the day our grab earnings in the afternoon. Yes, they will be late at night. They will not be uh right after the bell. So, it's important to remember that. Look, in terms of their numbers, I'm expecting an increase on IBIDA growth and revenue guide. Uh the big issue with Indonesia increasing that regulation on um ride sharing gaps, I think it's not as big of a deal as people think. The reason for that is because a you can just charge a service fair and that service fair tends to mitigate the amount of pain. B the other competitors in the region don't have the types of margins Grab has. I mean, they're literally burning money every month. So those companies, I mean, if that hurts Grab, those companies go out of business. like there's just no way unless they dilute shareholders they're going to be able to keep up with the pace which might end up creating more regional consolidation which theoretically could be bullish for grabs. So I think they will address that on the call. Uh I think we'll see an increase of adjusted IBA they're going to put up about 930 million in revenue and then it's just the question of does the market care about them just like these software names just like these space names. Does the market care or is the market going to say look the earnings are cool but Micron's going EPS at 600%. We don't really care about anything else other than these names that are growing.
And you know that might be the problem with any company that reports earnings that the market's not excited about. Micron 590 up 8%. Yeah, exact same thing happened with Zeta.
Same thing happened with Service Now.
I hope this doesn't happen with Palunteer. Now again, I think Paler is in a league of its own and they constantly beat on the numbers and they're going to have to really do it again because this software stench is all over these companies. no matter how good the numbers they put up, they're just not able to get off of it. Valentry is going to have to once again be like, "Hey, if you're looking for growth, we are the AI company that can deliver growth."
Um, but they're going to have to do that. And I these companies that are not growing 30, 40, 50, 60, 70% and they're not in the right theme, they're just getting dumped. I mean, SoFi grew 40% and got dumped.
So, it's just one of those things where it's like, man, what does the market want? And right now, you're seeing with the price action what the market wants.
By the way, citizens reiterated uh Google to 515.
So, Google getting one of its highest price targets on the street today. Uh they see AI monetization accelerating across search and cloud with TPU commercialization, unlocking new revenue streams and margin upside. That's another reason I don't think Meta is catching a bid. Google has a chips business with TPUs and Amazon has a massive chip business with Tranium. Meta has nothing outside of advertising.
Like, that's literally 96.3% of their revenue. And I feel like if you don't have cloud, if you don't have chips, it's just ads, which should deserve a higher premium because of the growth they're putting up, but it's literally just ads. You know, the market looks at it and says, "Hey, we can't we can't be super excited about it." 720 S&P going green as well. Meta does have well, they've been working on robots for a while. They acquired a robot company over the weekend, but I don't know if those robot companies are going to manifest in any meaningful way anytime soon.
Um, metagrowing ads is enough though. I I'm with you. I think it's more than enough.
But like it's just a re like I think SoFi growing 40% is more than enough too for this thing to not be less than $20.
But it doesn't matter what I think or what you think. It matters what the market think. The market is like nope, we do not care. We want exceptional growth and we want a diverse uh revenue stream to lead to that growth. AXTI and AOI going red on the day. Tesla going green.
And until we get that, we're not going up.
APLD that is up 1.23.
Bitcoin also just below 79.
I thought Meta was building a data center. People get confused on this.
When Zucks announced MetaMP compute in January, he was talking about for Meta's internal operations, not to sell it to other people.
So yeah, Zux is was never talking about external comput that we would be selling like a cloud, which I mean if they did that, I think the stock would be up a lot, but he wants all the compute to get all the researchers to do all the experiments they can so that they can create super intelligence. And you know, really the thesis is can they create super intelligence for billions of people? And I don't know if Meta is going to be able to do that. I think their ads will keep growing, but I don't know if you and me are going to want to engage with Meta's super intelligence AI versus Siri or Chatbt or Gemini. Um, and I think that's, you know, what the street is doubting as well. AMD getting a pretty ugly hit right here as well on the day. Almost 5% down.
Why is UPS down 9%? Do they have earnings?
These guys have earnings today. Uh let's check UPS down nine. That actually is a bit ugly. Amazon did talk about verticalizing more of their stack. Oh yeah, this was the reason Amazon introduced Amazon supply chain services.
Amazon's logistical network now open to every business.
Today, Amazon is launching ACS, Amazon Supply Chain Services, opening its freight distribution, fulfillment, and parcel shipping capabilities to businesses of all types and sizes.
Where's FedEx? FedEx is also down 7%.
Yeah. I mean, once again, how do you bet against Amazon?
They are just literally going after every single vertical on the planet. And they will Amazon has not bought back a single share of stock in the past 10 years.
Apple has bought almost $800 billion worth. I think Amazon's just like, "No, we're going to reinvest it. We're going to lose money probably on our shipping business, but we're going to put FedEx and UPS in a really tough position. take market share and just keep growing.
And maybe that thesis, you know, continues to to fully play out.
Circle still pumping with BTC, even if it's not at 80,000. Just the sniff of Bitcoin getting back up there, I think, is getting a lot of these stocks to be more excited.
They're basically leveraging their data center to enter new segments. Yeah, and they've done this for a long time, right? They've done this in so many different businesses since 2006, ever since they uh really started using AWS to subsidize even the ecom business, which they still do. The other big thing about Amazon, people forgot 13.7% operating margins. It was at 7% a year and a half ago. So, they've almost doubled operating margins. that thing gets up to 20%.
And the capex slows down, which in probably, you know, four or five years the capex slows down. That's free cash flow going right back down to shareholders, which probably, you know, gets the multiple to rerate. Reddit 170 down a little bit from the top at 174. What do you think of Joby as a moonshot? Joby and Archer are definitely moonshots.
Joby, I think, has had a bit more progress than Archer from what I've seen.
Uh, I'd consider them startups that are public, but yes, they in my opinion are definitely moonshots.
TSM, is that making a move today? 403.
This thing did get to what? 417.
Still a$2 trillion company. 2.1.
Um, Dom says, "I bought some UPS.
I should probably exercise my stock options in UPS, but maybe we'll wait till the stock goes down a bit more because I do have a lot of those from my time at the company." BMR, that one, they bought more ETH today. I think 100,000 ETH. They bought more.
That one up a little bit. Do you think Service Now will have its moment? Yes.
But once again, oh, there you go. 94.
Making a move here. Once again, the question is when does the tune on software switch? I I absolutely think Service Now does not deserve to be trading at these levels. And when it got to 80, like did the earnings call go the best? No. But it's also like look, company's growing 22% three billion dollar base. Like not easy to grow 70% when you're doing three billion a quarter, but still a pretty significant amount of revenue. Uh, and Bill McDermott, you know, he's said the same thing over and over again. Agents will be incorporated with Service Now's platform, not commoditized their platform. Nothing in the numbers is showing that they're commoditized. It's literally a narrative that the market has. Once that narrative dissipates, you know, maybe this thing gets rerated.
Maybe it gets meaningfully rerated. Zoom at 107.
Um, Rubric, they had some news over the weekend. They got an upgrade. Rubric up five. Yeah, all of software is getting a pump right here, which is good. IGV almost 90.
Let's see if that can get back up there.
Oh, yeah. There is an event in Vegas with Jensen, right? That's with uh Service Now today. So, we'll probably get some clips from Jensen and Oh, that might be a reason it's pumping. Everyone knows Jensen's gonna get on that stage and tell everybody they're stupid for selling the stock.
Maybe that's why.
By the way, for those that are asking, I I do not actually have restricted stock options on UPS. That's a joke because people say I look like a UPS driver when I wear my brown hoodie.
So, I do not I've never gotten RSUs from a company because I've never worked at a company. I feel like that's such a cool thing. Restricted stock options. that stock pops, you exercise them, boom, got all these gains, got all these taxes you got to pay, too. But still, got all those gains.
It's funny though because some people that work at their companies, they don't like their stock. Like, I have a cousin who works at a tech company. She's like, "Dude, every time it invests, I sell that [ __ ] and I'm out. I don't care. I don't believe in this [ __ ] Not one bit.
I mean, I get a paycheck, but I'm not trusting this over so many other names that are out there.
Melly, is that up a little bit?
Flat.
Um, sold my RSUs and put it in Rock Lab at $4. Wow. Yeah. See Laura, what a hell of a move.
Wait, sometimes you got to reate Iranian foreign minister. The straight of her moves will not return to its previous state and there are no negotiations in the nuclear field.
Okay, once again, I don't think these headlines matter anymore. At this point, it's negotiation or bust.
And every time you think there's a bust, the market doesn't even care, which is what we're seeing with the price action. AMD still down four, down one, Qualcomm down four, S&P 721.
Um, sold the 105 Rocket Lab covered call expiring Friday. Pounder 200 covered call. I think 105 and 200 on Pounder will be safe by this Friday. Those are pretty far out of the money. Look at Salesforce. Try to get up to 190. When was the last time we were at 190?
We got there a week ago and then before that it was early April. So basically getting back to where Salesforce was after a month, which is good to see.
Um, Oracle up six following the Neoclouds. Nebia's topped out so far at 176, now down at 173 as that continues to make the move. What do you think about Dualingo before earnings? All right, what do you guys think? It seems like most people are bearish buying Micron at these levels.
Most people are bearish based on the poll that I did buying a SanDisk or a Broadcom at these levels because people are saying they are not doubling down on semis here.
I mean would you take a flyer on Dolingo down 50% on the year? It's got to be down more than that, right? Dolingo for the year. I know Joseph Carlson said that he I think he bought more on Friday. He continues to get I actually don't think the buy that he did on Friday at like the low hundreds. I mean, if they crush the quarter, it's probably not going to 500 anytime soon. Um, but could this thing pop up to like 130, 140 just on better guidance, especially if software is back? Maybe.
Or is it plagued by this so this, you know, software is not only software is dead narrative, but this AI is commoditizing language learning narrative that which I think is a real issue, dude. Like it is a problem. no matter how much they expand to chess and music and all that like if you just learn stuff through chatbt yes there's a moat to dual lingo's proprietary data and network effects but that broader tam I mean how big is it if people just do stuff themselves without needing a platform to commercialize it which again it's hard to learn a language by yourself and the platform definitely helps get there which is what I think is the moat but how much does the market perceive that it's growing and also their ma have dropped off for two quarters right so that's Not the best thing for Dualingo as well. Do you own Qualcomm? No, I do not own Qualcomm.
Service Now trying to push 95.
Trying to push 95 here.
Um BTC little pump. What about him? This whole peptide revolution still trying to get people to be excited. Grab reports on May 8th. They do not. a report today.
A lot of times, again, do not trust your brokerage to give you the earnings date. Usually, it's false. Just go to the website.
Literally, the easiest way to go to the website is type in the name of the website and then IR. The first result on Google will be their earnings or their uh their investor relations page and then immediately you'll see the PR about when they they're like forced by the SEC to announce exactly when they uh are doing the earnings publicly. So, the investor page has the best one. Intel down on the day, but it will be today.
Wow, Nvidia losing 198. All right. So, what are people think about Nvidia? Why do people think Nvidia is getting hit the way that it's getting hit?
Because my thesis this morning was maybe that cerebrous IPO kind of scaring the market. Also, some bigger players selling out of it and transitioning into the smaller names.
Uh, Peter Teal so old of his Nvidia a while ago. Draen Miller's out of a lot of it. Again, that's old news, but it is starting to pop up more.
Weak hands, low beta to high beta. And that's actually a good point. Low beta to high beta because, you know, Micron's way more high beta than in Nvidia, which means there's way more alpha theoretically than Nvidia. There's also way more risk compared to Nvidia, but still that may be the trade.
software really making the move, dude.
Nice to see on a wow service now 80 to 95. Congrats if you bought the dip low on this. It was at freaking 84.95 on April 24th, just 10 days ago.
95 right here. That's a really good backdrop for Pounder today. If they crush numbers and software is not being perceived in a bad way, then you know, Pounder is one of the only software names that really grows. That should be really good for them today.
I'm still down 45% on service, but that's the opportunity, right? Like this thing was at 190. You know, most people bought it, I think, in the 120s and they thought that was the dip or even at 150.
It's at 94. Like it's got a lot of room to grow if it actually makes a change from these. Even Shopify down from 150.
Felt all the way to 107 now back at at 128. Rubric also moving with it.
in that software ecosystem.
Oh, the other reason Nvidia is down, we didn't talk about this on Friday, um, but I think Jensen issued this statement over the weekend. Uh, Jensen said that their share of revenue in China is now zero.
Yeah, Jensen says Nvidia now has a 0% market share in China and says US export policy has largely already backfired.
Now, maybe he's saying this to get, you know, both regulatory bodies to be more interested in getting Nvidia chips out there. But, oh, no, we did talk about this because there was the Huawei headline that they sold 750,000 chips and they're expected to do 12.8 billion in revenue. So, you've got a brand new IPO for a chip company, which for better or for worse, people say is a massive competitor with Nvidia, which I don't fully understand the accuracy of that, but nonetheless, that's the perception.
And then you've got China taking all of the market share away from Nvidia and AMD for domestic companies. I think the CCP uh said we expect 80% of chips to be domestically supplied over the next year.
I mean maybe if there is any pressure on Jensen's ability to beat and raise because they can't include that China revenue in the guidance and you know they thought they would get to include China five quarters ago and it hasn't happened.
Maybe that's part of the reason why it's selling off.
David said, "Someone just bought my 195 covered calls on Palunteer for 21 cents this week."
You gotta love the super low delta OTM plays on earnings weeks for some of these plays. What do people think Pal could see after earnings? My range is 130 to 165. I'm more biased to 165 if they crush it. But now that it's pumped so much going into the print because it was at like 138 last week. I think now the downside's maybe 137ish instead of 130 like it was when it was at 140 just because if it falls from 147 to 140 that is a you know pretty ugly move and then maybe give it a couple bucks away from that. But they would have to mess up earnings and I just don't think Pounder is going to me I mean they just like the momentum is all on their side. I don't think they mess it up. If the market doesn't want to give them a premium that's the market's thing but I don't think Pounder messes it up.
And if they don't, then I think we see a a much bigger move.
And maybe this is the turning point for this year.
As you know, it's down 20% of the year, but it's not down as much as some of the other software names. So, it's been not hit as aggressively as the other ones.
What do you think about Amcore? I like it. Intel mentioned them. We've been talking about Amcore for a while. Stock talk who should be on the show I believe Thursday I'm confirming with them wasn't able to do Friday but um probably on Thursday market open uh he introduced this to us at 30 bucks and obviously it's made a massive massive move and you know the rerating for packaging has also started to happen with the increased guidance on CPUs now again would I buy it here I don't know I even think stock talk would question buying it here but also given his cost basis is much lower. Uh kind of a general rule is to not violate that as heavily here. But it's also your riskreward. Like do we see MCO as $120 stock? I don't know because that that would be a price of sales that is much greater than what it is today. And the thesis was never for the price of sales to be as aggressive as that. It was to go from one to two. It's at 2.5. So the thesis played out. I'm assuming people had an Intel thesis and that played out and now it keeps running. So like again the bears are saying all right enough is enough. Like the M cores, the Intels, the microns, they can't keep moving. The bulls are saying, "No, no, no.
Everything's been rerated. Everything's been rerated." And you just like when 2024 it was like, "Okay, Nvidia 3 trillion, that's enough." It's like, "Nope."
The thesis got rerated and you can't stop it. Rocket Lab finally getting some love right here.
back above 80 and maybe that could be happening.
Japan's finance min finance minister says that Japan has large supply chains in Asia which are at risk of disruption.
The other issue for Grab and for a lot of these Asian companies is oil and I'm very curious to see what management says about their guidance on oil. Uh Japan also feeling it. Zeta back to being green in 1871.
Price of oil and the oil supply shock is not good for these smaller companies in Asia or smaller countries in Asia that get a ton of their oil from Iran or at least going through the straight of Hermoose.
So obviously not the best thing for Japan. Probably why the BOJ continues to intervene and buy up yen.
But you know I wonder how long they can keep that going. Robin Hood getting a little bit of a move. 78. It was at 84 before earnings. I know it's been painful, but nice to see this one at least trying to crack back up to these $80 levels.
Um AMD, that one is still down. By the way, the administration taking full credit for the win on Intel. Here's what Benton said over the weekend.
>> And with Intel, Intel is our national champion uh with semiconductors.
The government took a stake several months ago under President Trump's direction. I I was in the oval when he told the CEO of Intel that he would like a 10% stake. The CEO turned it over and the the US government's made between 30 and 40 billion dollars on that. And no one gives wants to give the president uh wants to give the president credit for that. And he is working for the American people every day. So not not only Maria, not only do we have more national security, we have the a more resilient balance sheet. And with Intel, Intel, >> I mean taxpayers are up 30 billion dollars on Intel.
Now, the ironic thing is if you know the government were to sell that stake, Intel would drop like immediately. Uh Oracle, by the way, nice move to 182, up six%. I mean, it would drop ferociously because everyone would think, okay, you know, we've lost faith in Intel.
Obviously, that would be a lot of selling pressure. Same thing if Jensen sold his Intel, but they're probably not going to do that because why would they?
you know, they'll probably don't want to mess with the narrative and the story, and Intel is putting up growth, so they likely can't sell it, but that doesn't mean that it can't go much higher if they continue to hold.
Aid, I put 1 million into Figma in the 16s, over 50,000 shares. Figma's like 18 now, right? No, Figma's Wow, Figma's up 9%.
Dude, Hala Beast, you've done like three of these successful full ports into individual stocks.
It's like really worked out for you three times in a row. Uh, congrats.
There you go. Up four bucks a share. I don't know why Figma's up 9%. Might just be because of software, but this one seems like something specific to Figma.
Did Kathy buy Intel? She did not. She actually sold a couple hundred million dollars of AMD.
I guess the clawed design thing the market doesn't care about anymore as much as they cared about last week.
This thing was down 20% last week on that claude news.
There you go. Figma green. What about Adobe? How does Figma get a pump? But Adobe is getting 1%. At least it's up from the 220s.
Dolby right here 254 on the day. Where's ELF? That is at 62.
That's up a little bit. Nike that is also up a little bit as well. No, it's down.
Then pounder at 147.
What do you think about earnings today?
Pounder on and fang.
So fang is energy. Diamondback energy. I think they do well because obviously energy has done well. The problem is it's up 40% of year to date. So just like Chevron and Exxon that were selling news even on good earnings that could be the same with Fang. On I think is going to do well. I mean they've seen a a massive rerating given the type of demand that has started to interplay between CPUs and photonics. So I think on's going to do well but on is also again I don't know if it's priced for perfection but it's uh it's up 82% this year. Right. So, it's made a move.
And then pounder is the one that I think is going to crush, but it's also down on the air. So, maybe that one has a big one. Uh, if I had to guess, I would say on pumps, pounder pumps. And then Fang probably flat to dumps, but I could see that pumping easily because energy has been well.
Spirit Airlines tells bankruptcy court it has no choice but to liquidate remaining operations as per their court filings. I was surprised Trump didn't save it. like that 17,000 job. I was really surprised he didn't save it because he really sounded like he wanted to and it wouldn't have cost him that much money.
It would have cost him half a billion which is not that much for the government but they let it go under. Ford April US SUV sales 72,000 which is down 16% year-over-year. Uh hybrid vehicle sales 15,000 down 32% year-over-year.
As per Ford, the spirit ticker was also called save. That is quite ironic.
Amazon trying to get back to its earnings high went from 277 to 258 the day after earnings. That was the day I took off. I couldn't believe it when I woke up. I was like, "Wow, did not expect that to just dump." Right back to 274.
Right back.
BMR also making a little bit more of a move as ETH and BTC Amcor now turns red.
Nvidia continues to be red. Goodness, dude.
That's incredible. The fact that Cory and Nebius are pumping.
Okay, here's another question I have for everybody. Does it make sense like functionally that the smaller AI derivatives are pumping and that the large ones you could put the hyperscalers in there are not.
Does it make sense? Because I think the bull case is they're smaller market caps. So yes, the bare argument is well they wouldn't have any demand if the big guys didn't subsidize them. So like logically do you just follow the money or do you do you stick with the the the entities that are creating the demand in the first place for the AM cores and the Intels and the Microns of the world?
And I feel like there's an argument for both sides. But obviously the answer right now objectively seems to be you buy the derivative plays over the big ones because that's where the money's going at least for now. What do you mean by subsidize? Well, I mean, you know, there is no demand for a Nebus unless Meta wants to buy more GPUs and needs data centers and they give Nebius a $25 billion deal, right? It all goes back to Nvidia.
It all goes back to a Meta, which both are doing horrible this year compared to a Nebius, but a Nebius has got the big like it's just it's almost like a psychology of large numbers here. That's the defining reason for why this one is outperformed as well versus purely just earnings because obviously doesn't have actual profits yet but they do have a lot more growth.
Nvidia 197 86 SMCI this one was the poster child of derivative AI plays back in 2023 catching a bid. This one now up 4% on the day.
It makes sense because Nvidia can't 2x by the end of the year, but other companies can. Yeah. And I think that's a very like coherent point for why these other companies I mean people just think Nebius can get to 80 billion before they think Nvidia can get to 10 trillion which is you know you can't really dispute that. Like it is way easier in my opinion for Nebius to go from 44 to 85 on market cap than Nvidia to go from 5 to 10, right?
Like maybe it's as simple as that.
Weeull did catch a bid as well. It was at 450 a couple weeks ago. Now it's 731.
That one continued to go green. Yeah, that's fair. Nvidia was in the low 90s last April. So, it's still up a lot over the past year. It's just year to date.
Obviously, the other ones have done way better. Amazon, can we get 175?
Sorry, 275.
Okay, it's got a couple bucks to break that earnings pump that we had at 277 as Meta slightly gets a move at 610.
when all the big dogs have stalled and the small guys are running, that's usually a sign we don't have much run rate left. Just saying. Yeah. And again, that's why I did that article over the weekend and I also think that's what a lot of people feel uh on this poll, right? 7030 on are you doubling down on the semi is I just saw a lot of bear cases over the weekend saying the fact that these bigger names are stuck and the smaller names are running means we're entering a parabolic stage of the meltup.
And once again, the counter-argument to that is that it doesn't matter because if the earnings continue, then that parabolic stage can get more parabolic.
Now, oil and the tenure aren't helping, but if the market keeps not caring about that, then maybe the market keeps not caring about that.
Uh, take two. That's a 223. Can we look at the stock draft? Yes. Let's pull that up.
I think I got the lead on Friday. I am continuing the lead. So Matt's at 35.3.
I'm at 39.3.
So we have Nebas massive winner, AMD, massive winner, and then Apple, massive winner. We have that massive loser, Dualingo, down 76, but still at 39. Steve's at 23.7. He's up almost 4x on Micron. Tanner's at 10.3. Again, Matt's at 35. And then Chris is at 18. Google and Marll doing the best for him right now.
What do I think about Lmentum? So, Lmentum is the other poster child with coherent for Photonix and those stocks have also gone vertical this year.
I think that is probably why uh Goldman once again put out that report.
Momentum's up 1,400% over the past year.
It's up 150% year-to date. Put out that report on optics and where uh optic electronic infrastructure is going. Look, I think Lum I don't know if it's a buy at 950 because again it's run like crazy, but Nvidia invested two billion in them for a reason. Same thing with Coherent. Now, I don't know if Nvidia would invest two billion at these levels, which, you know, Jensen could really pump up a lot of these stocks if he bought more Intel or if he put money into Micron or he bought more uh Nebius and Corweave, which he has a ton of, right? I don't know if he's willing to buy them at these levels, but he did buy them 50% ago, and that's where the alpha was. And so the broader question now is if the cycle continues, will the alpha continue on those names? Which theoretically it should be a retracement before that, you know, before that fully happens.
ABCL, is that making a move? Accelerate, do they have earnings today? I think they do. That's up 5.6.
This is also going to be one that uh we need to see if it goes up. Nvidia still down. We talked about pounder earnings earlier in the show. Talked about it last night as well. Again, I think they're going to crush it. Yes, I'll be covering pounder earnings later today.
3:30 or sorry, 3:45 with Arie and Amir.
So, we'll be looking at all of those different earnings.
Um, okay.
Couple of other different macro things. Government of Canada announces a new billion dollar business development program, 500 million additional funding for regional tariff response initiatives.
Um, Iranian revolutionary guards report no commercial ships or tankers have passed through the straight of recently calling US official claims unfounded and absolutely false.
Okay. Do we agree with the US saying two ships have passed or with the Iranians saying two ships have not passed at all? Now, if they were lying about actually attacking the ships, then they might be lying about this. But looks like the UAE is saying, "No, our ships actually were attacked." So, we still don't know exactly who is telling the truth here.
By the way, these were the ETF inflows over the past month of April. IBIT actually came in at number 11. DRAM, look at that, 2.3 billion. That's old memory. It's up in the top 12. V was number one with um 23 billion of inflows, 48 billion for the year. IBIT actually got 2.3 billion. three billion 3.4 billion for the year. So you do have some of that Bitcoin momentum that came back in April. SMH was at 3.4 billion, 5.6 billion for the year.
A lot more people excited about memory and maybe more BTC.
We're in a global he said she said.
Exactly.
Like we are legit in a global he said she said. Micron, are we going for 600? Micron 585. It touched 592. Took a breather there again. Up 40 bucks on the day. Micron itself.
Does DM have SKH Heinix? Yes, it does.
It does indeed.
Skinx was up 11%. That's also why DRAM is up.
Palanteer 147.83.
SMCI up four. Nebius back to 172. Let me do another poll right here because I think this is also probably relevant.
Do you own one of the following? Let's do Micron SNDK Western Digital or Seagate DRAM.
uh or none.
And last time I did this, it was 7030.
30% of people had one of these names.
70% had none.
The reason I'm asking this is because, you know, it begs the question, how many people want to take a bigger chance on memory going into the print or going into at least more of the earnings prints?
If you own at least one of them, that's all that matters because that means you have exposure to memory. So even if you own multiple of them, bigger question is if you're in at least one of them, not through an not through an ETF, not through like the S&P, you have to actually own a dedicated memory ETF. The point is how many people are levered up on memory is my question.
That is my question. We could do photonics next as well because again those seem to be like look those seem to be the two bottlenecks that the market cares about right now. I don't know if the market's going to care about it five months from now, five years from now, but right now at least for the past five months we're in May, fifth month of the year, that's what the market has cared about.
Like Neoclouds have done well, but memory has massively outperformed the Neoclouds. Um, just you know, SanDisk alone up 3,500%.
Service Now still moving.
Software might be back.
Software might be back. Wow. 62%. Wow. So 5% of people own SanDisk, 4% own the other place, 29% Micron, 62% say none.
So we got a 6030 split or 6040 split I should say, but really 6030 because Micron's the majority of it in the context of memory amid if grabbed his points tonight, do you consider jumping ship? I'm going to take a real hard look at the earnings and see what we've got. I talked about this last week. Again, it's been a loser for the past year and a half, but I think, you know, no one wants to hear this, but stocks are not supposed to go up in a straight vertical line within a year and a half. Like for the previous big names that I've had, that that is absolutely not what happened. The problem is when everything else is going up straight in a vertical line, it makes you feel there is a massive opportunity cost. So, it goes back to the example I talked about this morning. Do you sell something at 52- week lows to buy something at 52- week highs simply because you can't deal with the opportunity cost anymore? And does that end up becoming the right decision?
Maybe it does, whether it's SoFi, Grab, ESTs, all these names that like, you know, just haven't meaningfully performed.
But maybe that's the wrong decision even if the earnings aren't amazing. So, you know, they I would I want to see the guidance. I want to see functionally what they say that makes me think if I want to reevaluate the thesis, but it's just a slower mover. It's going to be a slower mover compared to a micron.
So, I just don't think people should compare those types of names to the names that are moving up like you can't compare them like the growth's not at the level, the margins are not at the level, the geography is not at that level.
So, we have to get out of those comparisons. But nonetheless, if the comparison is opportunity cost, then it's yeah, there's obviously been an opportunity cost. But I think there's been an opportunity cost across software throughout the entire year and you know, now people are calling BS on that, which is why they're buying service now.
Retail has missed a lot of this run.
It's in the data. That is correct. Uh I looked at this this morning in a couple different articles and you know, it's logical because um you know, when I asked I think around April 1st, how many people are buying the dip? This was the day after the ceasefire was announced.
So maybe it was April 2nd. I had three options on the poll. 33% yes I'm buying.
33% I'm cautiously buying. 33% I'm not buying. And 66% of the vote on the chat was I'm not buying or I'm cautiously buying. And the macro data has shown that as well from Goldman, which is that retail really didn't participate heavily in this rally. Now that was different from 2025. Retail legit. It was like 955 retail bought the dip and the institutions got it wrong which is why the rally was so explosive last year.
This time it was institutions not taking up the bulk of it, but it was a combination of int of institutions and retail, but it was absolutely not.
Retail said, "This war is stupid. I'm buying the dip." Just like they said the tariffs were stupid, I'm buying the dip.
Like there was a lot of people. I mean, just scroll through my post back in March and look at the comments underneath every headline of just people saying, "The world is over. This market is uninvestable, yada yada yada." We've had a massive rebound.
And so part of that rebound has also led people to be stuck on the sidelines because they couldn't believe that a micron could go from 300 to 600 irrespective of the micron thesis. Just the broader like war narrative being an overhang.
You know it got tough for some people to like meaningfully say I want to buy the dip. But literally anything you bought at that time you know should be up more than not. Bitcoin above 80 once again. That one making a very very nice move.
80,450 as that one helping Hood helping Micro Strategy helping all of those names. Rambis is my memory play. Is Rambis recovering at all? Rambus back up too again. This one also phenomenal earnings, but it was up a lot going into the print. So now it's only up 15% this year when it was up 47%.
which means it just ran too hot into earnings even though it had like a really freaking good earnings. Air Test Systems as well, that's down 6.3% today.
Um, Circle also continuing to make a move. That's I mean Circle got to 130 before like before it collapsed.
Wow. 116 maybe the Clarity Act is that thesis as well.
I mean, you know, most people say by end of May. A lot of people said by end of April, but now if it's end of May, maybe there's a better chance that we actually end up getting clarity on that clarity act. Dude, if Bitcoin comes back to a 100, I think people would be a lot more excited about it.
But, you know, we have to see if that actually takes place. This picture I thought was kind of pretty and funny over the weekend. I mean, what if Spirit just takes their airplanes and put puts GPUs inside of them? And like literally, it's crazy to think that Spirit could convert the airplane into an AI data center. Uh, probably not realistic, but it would be funny. Yeah, Spirit AI.
Like seriously, if they really transformed the the the airplanes into AI data centers or AI factories, maybe there'd be a better chance. Yeah. If the shoe company did it, why could Where is that shoe company by the way? Bird down 7%.
Down 7%.
Spirit still completely going bankrupt that stock. Where is that stock? Is that stock even still trading OTC?
That stock Fly Q. Yeah, it's down 19.
Look at that. Down 81% of the day. My goodness.
My goodness. This one just getting destroyed here.
Feel like it could actually work, right?
Yeah. Yeah, they're still looking enough to pay high fuel costs, but maybe that's more profitable than than flights. Would you buy pounder before earnings? No, I wouldn't buy pounder before earnings. I wouldn't buy grab before earnings. I feel like every earnings play has been a disaster unless you got lucky to be on. I mean like Service Now, it was set to make a massive move after being down 50% and that thing fell on earnings.
Rambus, Celestica, Cadence, they all dropped 20 to 30% on earnings. Cadence, I think, had a easier fall, but the other ones were just collapsed because, you know, the earnings just they were good, but they weren't good enough. Meta obviously destroyed on earnings.
Like, I think earnings plays are literally a gamble in this market.
It is really tough to think that the I mean, Intel obviously worked out, but again, Intel was up 100% going into the print. So, you had to really assume it would work out. Duolingo, is that a buy before? I I I have no like I could see it going up just because it's so sold so much, but I could also see it easily easily taking a breather.
Top fan, thanks for the super chat. Will you be covering OSS earnings this Wednesday? I believe it'll be in the morning, so yes, we're probably not going to listen to the call, but obviously we will cover the numbers. Um, they made a lot of progress. They have a lot of nice prototypes. They already kind of gave preliminary guidance last week. So, you know, if they can keep doing what they're doing, I would imagine OSS will be in a good situation. Reddit 170 is that one's red. Admit Jason's calendar spread strategy is actually doing numbers for me a lot on earnings.
Yeah, but see the the calendar spread that Jason does is a very risk adjusted way to determine uh where the volatility will go to the downside and the upside and to make a spread in between. The types of earnings gamles that people are talking about are just buying, you know, a thousand shares of Reddit before earnings and seeing if it goes up or uh buying, you know, Reddit was at 140 165 weekly options and having those go to the moon if it goes above 175. Like those are the types of earnings gamles that people have been doing and some of them have really been working. A lot of them have just gotten destroyed like on Microsoft and Meta.
But the calendar spread is a much more safer way to to navigate those earnings.
The NASDAQ, are we dropping a little bit? Q's couple red candles still up on the day.
Where is crude?
Is crude being rude?
103. We're back up 10350. We were almost below 102.
Where is Fartcoin? That's a great question.
Fartcoin is up 5% today. See, this doesn't make me more comfortable about some of these levels of price action.
5%. There you go.
Uh are you coming Symbotic? Is that on Wednesday? We will cover every earnings that we get. We'll try to get through all the numbers.
But if that is Wednesday, we'll be here.
This makes me nervous about AMD tomorrow. Look, if you're nervous, too, and you have a heavy position this stuff, you could always do something pretty freaking simple. I think I feel like people forget to do this sometimes, uh, or they get scared to do this, but it's not that scary. Buy some freaking puts. Like if you have a massive AMD position and you're afraid that it's run up too much and it's going to fall 10 15% and you don't want to deal with the fall, I mean putting 1% half a percent of that position into puts to cushion some of the fall is not a crazy idea.
And if you lose that money, okay, it's the cost of doing business. It's insurance, right? Like it's the whole point of options in the first place.
And if you don't, it is what it is.
So I feel like there's not something now again if you have you you know I wouldn't hedge my AMD position because it's not big enough to worry about but if you if you are afraid of it or again sell some very aggressive covered calls and be okay with losing some of those shares if it ends up getting hit VG that is also up 3%.
Yeah. Or a caller hedge to collect a credit. I mean, there's so many ways to navigate earnings if you have a massive position and, you know, you want to protect yourself a little bit more or yeah, trimming. I mean, that's, you know, that's obviously that's more personal around how much the position has grown for you, but it's also not a crazy thing to just, okay, if I have 2,000 shares, I'll sell 200 shares and I'm happy with 1,800 shares instead. I ran right there up 9.2. But again, I think the reason AMD might end up heading towards 400. And again, Lis is going to have to demolish earnings. But the reason there's a shot is because if Intel is seeing the type of demand they're seeing on CPUs, and I know they're the sort of industry standard in this, I would imagine AMD is also seeing that demand. Now, maybe it doesn't manifest as easily in this quarter, but if the guidance goes up in Q3 and Q2 or basically the fiscal year, I don't see how the street doesn't say, well, this is a lot more than the 35% revenue growth we expected.
And you know, maybe that goes up or at least that's enough of a reason for it to go up.
But it obviously has made a a pretty massive move. AMD really pops on earnings. That is also true. I have not seen an AMD pop on earnings in a while.
Like last time it didn't dump dump, but it definitely didn't pop as uh much as people expected. Qualcomm is that still down on the day. Qualcomm still down five on the day. GEV that is also up 1.7. Doge is coming back, baby. 11 cents. This thing was stuck at like eight cents for the past two months.
Nice 30% move on Mr. Doge. Dude, if Bitcoin actually comes back, you're just going to see a lot of excitement across all these other risk-on assets.
If you were up 150% on AMD and that position is 50% of your portfolio, what would you do?
It's it's a hard question because, you know, it's hard to like if that's like a $20,000 account, I'm not touching it because it's like, all right, I yoloed into AMD and now I'm just going to let it play out. If that's a $2 million account, that's a way different question, right? Um, so I think it depends on the account size, but I think you have a hell of a margin of safety.
You're up 150%. and you you did what you know retail has done over the past four years which is pick your horses and then hope your horses are right and let them ride and that is the way to meaningfully outperform. I feel like that's objectively you know this is what Buffett does as well. He allocates heavily into certain companies and hopes that those companies beat the S&P.
So I think the rule of thumb here is if you can't sleep at night you trim some.
If you're able to navigate it then you let the ride continue.
And it's also, you know, is I feel like Sandis Bulls are in a different situation now. If I'm up 3,000% on SanDisk, I'm out, right? Like I'm taking a decent chunk of profits there. Even if I'm up 500% 600%.
But 150 on AMD just feels like there might be more upside if Lisa can crush.
Okay, so I have been drinking a lot more water recently, which is very healthy for me. But the reason I'm bringing it up is because for the first time in I think a long time, I have to go use the bathroom, but it's for a good reason. I've been drinking a lot of water. So, let's listen to Tom Lee. I'll be back in like 30 seconds.
>> Certain. But I think the war has also exposed the strength of the US relative global position. You know, earnings estimates have actually gone up um as earning seasons progressed. The US is a leader on AI and that productivity lift is is meaningful. I think it's really one of the drivers for not only GDP but one of the reasons US companies have been resilient and I know there's a lot of investors still on the sidelines. So I I think the war remains uncertain and I mean it certainly looks like it's going to be a longer war but I do think stocks actually still have tailwinds actually as we get through May and into July.
You mentioned the earnings estimates going up. Um, undoubtedly the case, although there again, it's been pretty concentrated in the AI theme and in uh in in semiconductors and the other capex beneficiaries. So therefore, the market is somewhat narrowed out to that very dominant theme. I'm looking at I always keep an eye on the consumer discretionary equal weighted. It's 9% below its highs, right? So that's sort of where some of the economic frictions from the war can bite. Does. So is that okay? Hey, is that a good formula for for how this market can can continue toward your your your targets higher?
>> Uh I mean I think one of the reasons why uh it does feel concentrated is the AI story which is a global productivity story right there. AI is essentially creating productive units uh that actually either help workers uh produce more or even replace workers in some countries. it's primarily taking place in just the US and China. And so I'm not surprised in a way that we could see the US companies actually disproportionately benefiting this because it's not really taking place in Europe. So, I I'd sort of expect that concentration. But, um, you know, as far as like the effects later this year from higher oil, I, you know, I think that's a negative consequence and I think it raises questions about what what the Fed could do. In fact, of course, we're getting a new Fed chair. That's why I think later this year the markets could actually face a test around that. But for now, I think it's just an earnings tailwind story.
>> So, again, earnings are the story, but he's bearish on this Fed chair.
And I don't know, do we believe that historically a Fed chair gets tested so we have to get tested again and we have to go down again 15% from here. It's going to be it's going to feel like hell. Like it's going to be bad. Low 6,000s is not going to be easy. I just I mean I can't even imagine these stocks that have rallied this much. What happens to S&Ps at low 6,000? Everything is getting annihilated minimum by 20 to 30%. Especially on the high beta names.
So, it's hard for me to see that.
Obviously, you can't be naive enough to think that's not going to happen. But if the reason is historically that's what happens when a Fed chair gets introduced.
I mean, if that happens again, it would be a hell of a reason.
But maybe that ends up being how it plays out.
Did you flush and wash your hands? Yes, I flushed and washed my hands.
Yes, Mom. I wash my hands.
No, I usually never have to pee during the show, but like I really did start drinking a lot more water. Like I just I'm trying to get more water as a part of like my routine.
So I woke up early, drank a lot of water today. And I'm like, "Well, you drink a lot of water.
You have to wear a diaper. You're not allowed to leave us."
I feel like uh once you get old enough, everyone it's it's so crazy how life works, right? When you're when you're when you're a baby, you have to wear a diaper. And then when you get to that age where you're old enough, you also have to wear a diaper.
It's a crazy circle of life that plays out.
Yeah, we talked about the UAE air defense systems responding to a missile threat. So far, the market's kind of ignoring it.
Why does Soundtown keep? I don't know.
This is shorted like crazy and I guess the short squeeze is continuing to get this to go up. I have seen the rise of a lot of more smaller names that people are constantly throwing out there and you know a lot of people have been messaging me saying why don't you cover this? Why don't you cover that? reason I can't cover every sub1 billion dollar company that pops up and I know that there are so many people that have them is because I am very afraid of this happening and having to deal with it. This right here, nice $17 to $6 decline on Poet because a very small company did what a very small company does, which is lose a purchase order for whatever reason it is, but they lost the one order that was contributing to majority of the revenue and boom, the thing collapses.
It is not easy to associate yourself with a lot of these smaller names, especially if you have uh an audience at the end of the day. Just call spade a spade. If there's people that are going to hear about a name because you talk about it and it's super small and it's running up like crazy, but you don't know why the hell it's running up and you know, you might not be able to have a coherent thesis, but it's running up for the hell of it. You just can't talk about all of that. You just can't do it. Like, you never want to be responsible for that. As much as I hate that Grab hasn't out outperformed, my conviction in it remains strong because it's trading at 40% cash growing adjusted EBA at 60% year-over-year. Like, I'm sorry the street doesn't like that. Like, it is what it is. The street likes a lot of other plays more. But I can feel comfortable knowing that that is a name I attach myself to. And if the thesis changes, the thesis changes. If you take the L, you take the L. But at the end of the day, that's not some pump and dump random small cap that said we're working with AI and then boom, everyone starts talking about it. starts running up like crazy and then someone is left holding the back. Even if it outperforms something that you have higher conviction in in the short term because again a majority of those just go to zero or they end up becoming irrelevant after the hype dies and so you know that is the other hard part with he'll become scam. Yeah, exactly. Like if you pick a really really small cap company which again grabb's not even a small company it's like a $15 billion company. It's just the the prices are small because there's a lot of shares outstanding. But if you pick a very very small cap, I think the one of the only ones I've even talked about meaningfully is OSS because I think there's a legit thesis there because of the government contracts that they have at 200 million, it seems more obvious than not that if they execute on those contracts, there's alpha there.
You've got to have a thesis and you got to be able to defend the name.
If you can't defend the name, you can't easily say you bought it. I feel like if you buy a name uh and you don't explicitly say this is a trade and I don't care if it goes massively up or massively down because I will be out at my certain price target.
Then if you're buying it as an investment, you have to actually be able to defend it when [ __ ] happens to it.
This is what analysts have to do all day, right? And I don't know if I could defend a poet. Now, I think there's a thesis to poet, uh, but it's hard to be super excited about that thesis when the company has been paying YouTubers to promote the stock and when the CFO is violating NDAs. Like, some of that stuff is indefensible, to be honest.
I mean, at what level can we say that Sandis has ran up too much? Well, you already have I read some bare cases on it over the weekend. already you know these guys do what almost 10 billion in revenue per year market cap's at 185 billion so on a price of sales basis which I don't think is the best way to evaluate their growth but people can say look it's a bit extended obviously the chart is a bit extended but the four PE is not that extended so I don't know this has been the task with these AI supply chain bottlenecks that's been confusing to the bears all year I don't know if you can say there's the top to a micron or a sandis when you look at that forward PE assuming that growth continues and these companies continue to say we are signing these multi-level hyperscaler agreements um that they're extended you know even if the chart feels massively extended.
So yeah, and then there's all these derivative names that are part of the memory stack, but they're also subbillion dollar companies, which again, if you haven't done all the research on them, are you willing to defend them, you know, when they take a hit or when a piece of news comes out about them? Amazon 274 is that's still greener still on Fastly.
Yes, Fastly is a very small speculative position for me. But this one is more and see when people said I don't trade, I was like, hold on, Fastly is a trade.
This is an obvious trade. Entered at 2470. It's at 2770. I think they have earnings coming up. This one is absolutely not something that I'm super super super super excited about, but I think it got sold off with SAS for no reason given their more of an AI infraplay, even though there is a SAS part of their business.
And you know, target here is 35 back to where it was back in February if the SAS narrative changes and they deliver good earnings. But that's a trade, right?
Like that's a very obvious trade. Vastly is not something I want to hold for the next five years. Rocket Lab is something I want to hold for the next five years.
But Rocket Lab's underperforming the names that you might not want to hold for the next five years because you don't think there's earnings power on those names. But in the next 5 months, there's absolutely way more earnings power than uh a rock lab, at least in the moment.
Uh, UK MTO says it has received a report of an incident north of Dubai, dude. Okay, so the UAE definitely thinks something happened with their vessels as they continue to put out more reports.
Oh wow, they're putting Navarro on TV.
They haven't had Navarro on TV in a They got him talking about inflation, folks.
We haven't heard Navaro in it feels like years.
All right, let's see how he's justifying inflation.
>> Like, damn. One of the biggest problems we have is inflation in beef. Inflation in beef.
And one of the reasons uh has to do with just the way nature has been for the last decade or more. Drought has been a a very big problem. There's not much we up here can do about that. But there are policies, for example, uh the withholding by the Biden vegans of literally millions millions of uh acres of grazing land and we are swiftly swiftly moving that back in to help lower cost.
>> Okay, Navaro kind of pseudo blaming climate change for the issues with beef.
The UAE says, "We detected four cruise missiles coming from Iran towards the state."
Wow. We detected four missiles from Iran and successfully intercepted three over our territorial waters with the last one falling into the sea.
Okay. If the UAE is not lying about this, which they had that warning for uh all their citizens an hour ago, uh that means Iran is once once again launching proxy attacks on other countries in the Gulf region.
UAE defense, we detected four cruise missiles coming from Iran and successfully intercepted three of them over territorial waters.
crude back to 104.
Why are they attacking the UAE today?
Like, is this their way to protest the US uh escorting those ships through the straight of maybe those ships were UAE ships? We still don't know if they were South Korean ships or if they were UAE ships.
Maybe this was their way of fighting back. APLD up 4%.
Probably, right? That's that's their like response because they don't want to shoot at the US, so they're going to do a proxy shot at the UAE. Bitcoin potentially falling below 80.
They did leave OPEC. I don't know if that's a reason for why they're doing it, though. I mean honestly maybe it might be a reason at this point but that along with uh the other issue could be happening S&P I feel like the market should care about that right like Iran launching a proxy attack again on a neighboring state likely is escalation S&P goes red let's see how much the S&P really cares about Amit, I'm in the UAE close to the straight of Hermuz. It's getting real.
I've received multiple cell phone warnings. Yeah, Robert. I mean, please stay safe. We we we uh saw those cell phone warnings go out about two hours ago, and it looks like it looks like it was for a reason.
Thankfully, three of the missiles have been intercepted.
But obviously that's not a good thing or a good feeling to have if you are living there at the moment.
Nvidia loses 197. We are at 67 on fear and greed. It was at 69 last week. So down a little bit. 65 now.
Yeah. I don't know if markets ignore this one. Crude back above 10420.
We're going to see how the US responds to this as well.
See if we have any coverage on this.
Um, this one seems to be the the biggest form of escalation quite frankly in the past couple weeks that we've seen because Iran kind of held back against the proxy attacks basically throughout the ceasefire. There's there was a few but they were not that important. Wow.
Bill Aman's about to be on.
Pump up Persian Square, baby. Nvidia's the new grab. Oh my gosh. Where is this?
PSUS4257.
So, how much did they raise? They were trying to raise two and a half billion.
I wonder how much they actually raised for this. Obviously, the IPO wasn't super successful. PS, wow. Down 11% today.
Market cap of 13.5.
Again, the expense ratio on this thing makes no sense to me.
Uh, Amit, are you Nvidia hasn't been doing as well as AMD in the last year?
Not really, because again, I started buying Nvidia at around 115, under 120.
Uh, but you got to give props where it's due. AMD has absolutely destroyed Nvidia this year and you know, they deserve all the credit. They deserve all the praise.
So, Nvidia continues to be cheap.
cheaper than AMD. It is at the heart of this AI revolution. So I, you know, been very happy with the return, but you know, past five years, Nvidia has massively outperformed. Past year and a half, AMD has massively outperformed. So I don't think of them as that competitive, though. I know people like to have beef between. I really like I think the whole market's big enough for them. Broadcom, everyone to succeed.
It's just AMD has done way better this year than Nvidia. All right. Now markets are starting to fall. S&P 38%. There you go. Oh, wow. Iran showing footage of firing their cruise missiles.
Wow. So, okay. So, they definitely did this and they want everyone to know they did this.
Again, trying to tell their people they have strength in this. This is from the state media agency.
Now, okay, so here's the question.
Is that uh against the US ships trying to pass through the straight of Hermuz like was reported this morning, which the US denied, or was that into the UAE?
Nvidia about to lose 195, folks. My goodness, it looks fake. Yeah, they I mean it well they they definitely could have had a better camera.
I mean I know Iran is sanctioned, but they probably have 4K cameras, right?
They get or at least 1080p.
But it might not actually be fake if the UAE is literally saying we detected four missiles and intercepted three of them.
And if this is the video in which they shot shot those missiles, then you know that's where the market has to figure out how real this is. UAE says a fire has erupted in a petroleum industrial site following the drone attack from Iran. That's not good. IRGC spokesperson says vessels violating regulations announced by guards in the straight of Hermuz will be stopped by force.
Uh okay.
Markets officially not liking this crude back to 10550.
All right. So, who's buying the dip?
This is This is our dip, right? This is This is enough of dip. Where's AMD? 340 341. That's our dip. 5.2%.
Everything just goes up.
We can buy the dip, right?
This is enough. Or is Micron 590 to 579?
That's our dip.
That's our dippy dip.
Where is pounder?
Palenter 146.
I'm joking, by the way. It's I'm making fun of the fact that like these stocks are still up so much even after going down on this news, but ironically this literally I don't know if it's a dip by, but it might actually be a dip by if this news ends up not being that relevant, not being that important. I mean, it seems kind of aggressive on the headline. We ought to get more details, but will it continue to be? Uh, Aman, he's live. Let's see what he's saying about Persian Square.
>> Woke up with 10,000 shares and they're like, "Oh my god, in order to settle the trade, I got to sell this before the end of the day." So, we've had sort of a onslaught of selling. I mean, no one invests $50 to get two securities to sell them at, you know, a discount to that. It just didn't make any sense to me. But I think it was sort of more of a technical kind of factor. The stocks are kind of regaining their footing and and uh >> are initutions selling? I mean, you never know who's actually selling, but I I don't Yeah, I think it's mostly the the retail investors who got more a bigger allocation than they thought they would get.
>> So, you you still raised a few billion dollars. Five >> five billion. Um, what how how long will that take to deploy and how are you thinking of doing that?
>> So, we're deploying it as we speak. Uh, actually, we're about 35% deployed. So, we invest in very liquid companies.
We're actually, you know, like the prices of where things trade. Uh, and we have kind of obviously a plan on how we intend to deploy the capital. you like the prices of where where stocks are today.
>> Where stocks are today. I was gonna ask you about the overall market and how you're feeling about valuations right now because we've had quite a runup.
>> You know, interestingly, despite the overall market move, u I think stocks are still, you know, the companies we like are pretty cheap. Um, you know, the when people compare market multiples, you know, today we're maybe something in the low 20s, 20 21 times earning something like this. And while the market averages 16 or 17 times in history, you know, the the average company of 20 years ago is very different than the average company of today. I mean the the these are market cap weighted indices. It used to be really big companies couldn't grow very quickly. Now the biggest companies are among the fastest growing, you know, highquality businesses in the world. So the the mix of the market is much higher quality, much faster growing, much better businesses. So, if you're paying a low 20s multiple on an overall market basis, it it can be cheap.
>> Good deal. What's your highest conviction idea right now?
>> Um, I'd ra I don't know if I could just like kind of ranking your children. Um, I I rather not point out specific ideas because we're in the midst of deploying capital.
>> Okay.
>> I'm pass when you have one. But >> AI trade, I mean, you you're exposed there. You've liked Alphabet, Meta, Uber, right? Where where where do you >> first of all every company is an AI company today and if you're not you're going to fall behind >> they all say they are but how do you determine which ones >> the key is is AI going to disrupt you or is AI going to enhance your business and I think for the kind of the market leaders in many cases AI is a huge asset you know meta you know talked about much I mean I've talked to customers of meta that they're earning a much higher return on their ads which obviously means they're going to buy more ads obviously very good for meta I mean AI in that case very powerful you know, pro growth technology.
>> You're not worried about how much Zuckerberg is is spending. The stocks sold off after earnings on that and and questions about really what that future vision is around AI because they don't have the enterprise cloud business.
>> You know, the the uh I have a lot of confidence Mark Zuckerberg. He's had been a pretty good uh excellent allocator of capital over time. Um people question his WhatsApp purchase.
You go back in time, all the various what looked like, you know, expensive outlays generally turned out okay.
>> Yes. Yes. And uh I you know again we hear from the customers that they're getting better outcomes from Meta related advertising. The company talks about this earning very attractive returns on inve 625 with two billion. Uh we'll see on his latest disclosure if he bought more.
But this is one of those names outside of Amazon and Google that obviously just hasn't performed. Oil still going up.
S&P still going down. VIX up 8%. So this news out of the UAE still affecting the markets right now.
>> You know, we're we like companies that can earn high returns on capital and and are investing into that.
>> Fanny and Freddy aren't really AI companies. Um but that's >> by the way they're they will be big beneficiaries of AI.
>> Why?
>> Well, one, they can run their businesses way more efficiently, I expect, right?
If you think about mortgage uh securization, a lot of this is documentation, legal paperwork, things that you know AI could be very, you know, increased productivity and then uh just underwriting, you know, assessing the quality of a loan book, things like this. Um absolutely could be a meaningful unlock in terms of profitability.
>> What's your expectation at this point about them going public?
>> Uh well, one, they already are public.
Uh so people forget this, right? They're le they're listed in the pink sheets. Uh they're not listed on New York Stock Exchange. Uh I think it's >> but really being unshackled from the >> unshackled. I think it's high on the president's list. I know the president put out a tweet over the weekend about Fanny Freddy. So it's definitely seems to be top of mind for him, but uh we we're patient. Um obviously been patient because we've been involved in this these investments for a while.
>> What's a win there? I mean is there still some level of government support?
Like how do you ultimately see >> the simple solution for Fanny Freddy is the following. So the the most important thing that needs to be resolved for the existing shareholders of Fann and Freddy is that government has been repaid their government injected $191 billion into both companies. Government got repaid 301 billion which is that preferred investment plus almost a 12% interest rate. So the government got more than it was contractually owed. Meanwhile, the 191 billion plus a couple billion of um upfront payments sits on the balance sheet of the company as if it's never been repaid. That those payments have to be acknowledged by the government.
That's kind of step one. Once you do that, now they have you kind of extinguish the balance sheet line item.
You'll count for the payments on the preferred. You now have effectively uh you know companies that are very well capitalized. Um the government exercises the warrants it owns. It gives the Trump administration 7.22 billion uh shares of both companies and then you list on the New York Stock Exchange and that those three steps will unlock hundreds of billions of value. So I think the probability of that occurring I think is very high.
>> Are you in touch with the Trump administration on this?
>> I have been. with the FHFA.
>> Talk to everyone.
>> Commerce.
>> Yes. I think it's I think it's inevitable. I think it will happen. I just don't know. President's been busy, but he'll get to it.
>> You think it's >> And then I think the step from there is ultimately they have to be released from conservatorship.
>> Yes.
>> But vast majority of the value was unlocked with just the three steps and then the president has time to work with his team to reset uh the capital rules for the companies and for them to emerge as independent non-government controlled enterprises. But where the government ultimately still provides a backs stop in the form of a I think the senior preferred should stay outstanding as a bit like a line of credit but it has to be paid for. I don't think it'll ever get drawn but just that incremental or that important government back stop beyond the fortress balance sheet that they need to hold will make all the mortgage players very comfortable.
>> I mean the stock >> so much am I not talking about individual companies? Well, they I think the market likes what it what it hears.
Big move higher um in Fanny and Freddy, but it sounds like you're pretty confident and you're as bullish as ever.
>> Absolutely.
>> On both.
>> That's crazy, dude. She's like acknowledging that Aman's pumping it live as it's getting pumped.
>> Very, very much so. Yes.
>> Speaking of the president being busy, he signed an executive order last week that I think you had a you had a lot to do with the idea. This is on the retirement savings. It's going to be a huge issue for you. And so what they're going to do now is try to increase the access I guess for people to sign up.
>> The problem is we have 54 million Americans in this country that hardworking Americans that don't have some form of a IRA or 401k or a savings plan. And actually there are government resources available. There are something called the savers match. You know $1,000 for people to open an account and save for their future. And if you're not if you only make money when you're working, i.e. you're an Uber driver and you know when you when you're not on you're not getting paid, you're going to fall behind. Uh you can't have a world in which you know 60% of the company gets excited when the stock market goes up and 40% is resentful. And so what the president uh announced um is that basically in effect 41k plans for every American, >> right?
>> And something contribute to it though, you know, they're not going to be paycheck to paycheck. It's it's a matching program a bit like many companies do for their employees.
>> But if you're an Uber driver, if you're a restaurant worker, if you work for a company that doesn't have a kind of plan, this is the uh I call it the Trump savings plan or the American I think they call it the American dream accounts. It was not my idea actually an idea of Alex on First. I don't know if you know Alex.
>> Yeah.
>> Um I just pitched it to the president and he liked the idea and um and it's it's moving forward. I will be launched beginning of next year and I think it will be an important milestone. I mean there are other you know for example Australia has their superanuation system >> you know whatever 30 years ago Australians did not have any meaningful savings they began the program now the typical Australian has a bigger money put aside for their retirement >> all right so Aman happy with the Trump accounts pretty much every business executive has been uh Fanny and Freddy getting a bit of a move right here didn't say anything too crazy about the other names S&P new low of day another UAE alert going off right now. UKMTO, we received a report of an incident 14 m west of Mina Square. Received information from a third party that a vessel was on fire in the UAE.
Multiple Iranian ballistic missile launches detected from Ber Iran.
We don't know if those are the same ones that the UAE is talking about or if those are new ones on top of the Wow.
30-year Treasury 5% for the first time since July. It was close to that last night.
Look at that. 5%. The tenure is probably 4.4.
The tenure is 4.436.
This is part of what I talked about in that article last night on Substack.
just, you know, the equity risk premium. The equity risk premium is how much you're expecting to get from the S&P minus the 10-year Treasury. And if the S&P compounds on average 8% and it's already up 5% for the year, well, then your average return that's left is 3% because 8 - 5 is three. If the 10ear has given you four and a half for free to do nothing, why would you take the risk of buying stocks? the equity risk premium becomes zero because you're getting going to get a better return without more risk by just buying bonds which would help those yields come down. Now, if you think the S&P is going to compound way more than 8%, which over the past couple years it's been like 15%. Then obviously there's a higher risk premium. But if that tenure keeps spiking up, it eventually will take some money out of the market, especially if stocks go down because people will be like, "Well, why am I taking a risk in Meta when you know Meta's down 7% for the year and I can get 5% for doing nothing."
So that is that is the issue with the bond yields, right? It's not even about refinancing our debt. Like honestly, our debt is imaginary. Like we're for the number is so ridiculous. I don't even think like the deficit 40 trillion debt.
What does 40 trillion in debt even mean at this point?
That number is a the broader problem is these these these bond yields take the flow away from other assets risk assets because the risk-free assets are giving you a pretty decent return without taking any risk. And if you know you have a couple million bucks and you can get 5% on it for doing nothing, you'd be happy with that, right?
So I think that's the broader issue with this tenure spiking spy 717 down half a percent. I wish my debt was imaginary. You know I I I don't literally mean it's imaginary but again like functionally whether it's 40 trillion or 50 trillion at what point does the US economy break because of our debt? And I don't know what that you know I'm sure people in the 90s thought if we hit 10 20 trillion in debt it's going to be over but now we're at 40. It is not going to slow down. If Doge couldn't slow it down, then this thing's probably headed to 60 by 2040, which is I think the estimates.
And hopefully the country survives. But in the meantime, these yields spiking up is not not the best thing in the world.
Yeah. The interest on the debt is also what kills us. What does all this mean for small caps? This is not good for small caps because well, it you know, small caps down. It brings up the argument about a rate hike, which would be decimating for small caps. Now, I don't actually think we're going to hike rates, but if this tenure keeps pumping the way it is, I mean, remember Kevin Worsh is a hawk. He can become a dove, but he is by nature a hawk.
And if he gets confirmed, once he gets confirmed, Trump can't do anything.
That's the thing. Remember, Trump picked Powell back in 2017. He hates him now, but he picked him. So the idea of Trump and Wars' relationship going sour to me is very possible if Wars starts to just focus on what he thinks is the right path and if he thinks hikes are the right path which again I don't think that's why Trump put him there. But if if the situation gets that bad and he does that Trump can't do anything about it.
So the question then is going to be you know where is oil relative to the tenure and then what does that mean for for equities um have a VIX spiking right there 9% up on the day Iran struck the Fujera oil export zone in the UAE. Fujiraa is currently the only oil export outlet for the UAE.
Well, that's not good.
Flights have been suspended at Dubai and Shahar airports since a few minutes ago.
That also is not good.
Well, VG's flying. I would imagine it is VG. There you go. 8%.
This trade has still stood over the past couple of months even though it's not at 17. I mean, it is that hedge when things kind of go down.
So, are we down on SoFi? And fintech goes red. How about Hood? Hood at least holding on because of BTC. BTC's got to be below 80, right? Yeah, just below 80.
797.
Hard for Bitcoin to go up with the 10ear up.
kind of feels like a day in March except we're at alltime highs, but kind of reminding me of actual headlines that the market cares about today because we've had stuff similar to this. Not as aggressive, but stuff that's relatively similar. The market did not care.
Like imagine the S&P was making new all-time highs today even after all these Iranian strikes on the UAE.
It would be a total disregard for any of this.
Why is AMD down? I think there's AMD pre-jitters before earnings to be honest. Like that that's the real reason, which I think you should want it to drop a little bit going into the print.
Um, but look, when things get risk off, people sell the stuff that they're up a lot on. Like, it's pretty logical, right? So, if you bought AMD at even 320 and you're like, you know what, screw it. I don't really want to take a chance on earnings. I'm out at 340. Then made 20 bucks. And obviously, that's selling pressure on the stock. Qualcomm still down 4%.
That could also be affecting the broader market.
Sam says, "What's Iran's problem with our gains, bro?" I don't know, Sam, but this war is not necessarily resolved yet.
I bought some spy puts 720 for next week on Friday. Market seems too complacent to the Iran tail risk.
Yeah, the the inflows on QQQ puts last Friday actually were pretty aggressive as well. And I also think that was primarily for the reason of hey, like we're at all-time highs. We don't have to go down, but if we do, a little protection there is not not too crazy. Iran still holding 50. Hope not.
All right, that is it for me. We will be back at 3:45. Uh the majority of the market close today obviously is going to be pounder earnings. I'll be here with Arie and Amir. Uh we will probably try to cover some of the other earnings, but realistically we're not going to get to a majority of them. Pounder will be the main focus.
We'll see how the market reacts. Not the best macro backdrop to report on given this Dubai headline. Hopefully it doesn't get worse, but I think Pounders's destiny is in their hands today. And the level of earnings beat they can put up, which I think is going to be pretty aggressive, should be what the market ultimately judges them on. Wow, we got some some photos on this. Now, this is the this is the oil industrial area for UAE's only uh area of current oil exports.
That looks ugly.
Wow.
Okay. I imagine uh the White House is going to have to respond to this pretty soon, probably in the press secretary briefing of what they think is happening in the UAE. Also, I mean, this is a form of escalation. It's not escalating with the United States directly, but it absolutely is escalating. And I guess now we have to see what Trump is going to potentially say about it.
Okay, cool. That's what we got. Uh, word of the day and then I will be back for pounder and we will keep going from there. Yeah, that quantum name XND is still down 62% today.
That one getting hit pretty heavily.
Oh, this is not something that I have to deal with too much.
Tulent, affected by alcohol, slightly intoxicated, affected by alcohol. The market felt almost tulent, staggering upward with no clear logic. I love how ChachiT uses the word of the day in a market related sentence.
It always makes it more relevant. But yeah, I don't really drink often. So, how do we say this word?
How to say timulant? Or is it timulant?
Is this even a word? Google is saying this not a word.
Timulent.
Okay. Now, Gemini saying it's a literary adjective meaning intoxicated or drunk.
Okay. It was like it said, "Did you mean petulant?" I'm like, "No, I mean timulant or timulant."
I don't think I'm getting the uh pronunciation on any of these.
Yeah, this is a weird word. None of these websites are giving me pronunciation.
The fact that Google said you you mean to say this word is interesting. Okay, I'm not getting any pronunciations on this. Is it a scam word?
Maybe. No, I I did Google how to pronounce and look, let me show you how to pronounce uh look at that. It says, look at that. The there are the actual thing it wants me to search for is how to pronounce petulant. That's crazy, bro. It doesn't even think of that as a word.
drunken AI. Yeah, the AI is being tulent.
Okay. Well, that's I guess a more uncommon used word at that point. All right. That is it for me. Thank everybody. We'll see how the markets keep going from there. I'll be back at 3:45. Lot of earnings this week to keep going through and hopefully we can keep on getting some of this momentum. Thank everybody. Appreciate it. I'll see you guys in a few hours. Bye everybody. Have a good one.
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