WHY I AM EVEN MORE BULLISH ON STRIVE (ASST) - BITCOIN MANIA!!!

本站添加: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]Good day everyone. My name is Adam Livingston and I am the Bitcoin Wizard.

[00:00:03]Well, well, well. I think that Strive is absolutely cooking. I really can't believe my eyes. So, for all of you who found out about good old ASST, you know, back in February when I told you about the opportunity, I just got to say, uh, you're welcome. seems as though Seda is completely taking over the digital credit market, especially when you view things as a percentage of the size of the parent company. Obviously, you know, you have strategy just buying Bitcoin handover fist with STRC that has been tremendously successful this year, but we are seeing SATA absolutely dominating more than 2 weeks before daily dividends are even here. If we look at the SATA tracker right here on bitcoin forcorporations.com.

[00:00:51]Yes, this tracker is available to you guys. bitcoinforcorporations.com.

[00:00:55]Check this out. $161.3 million traded of Seda today. 98% of that volume is over $100, which is their par amount. So that's fantastic. And remember, this is a 13% yield. seven days in a row of them tapping the ATM, them issuing more shares into the market to buy more Bitcoin. Now, how much did they buy? We don't quite actually know, unfortunately, but we can make some rough estimates here. And how to tell this is by looking at the capture rate.

[00:01:30]For those of you who don't know, this is the percentage of eligible volume above $100 that Strive sold through their ATM facility. Obviously, the higher the capture rate, the more Bitcoin they're buying because that just means they're selling more shares into the market over that $100 par value. Now, obviously, anybody's guess how much volume they actually captured above that right here, according to this website, May 18th to May 26th, we saw a 48% capture rate trend, but I don't think that's accurate necessarily because the 8K is not filed for this week. At least it's not reported. I don't know. the last week would be a better suggestion of 57%. So up here we can go ahead and adjust the capture rate to estimate, you know, depending on how much they captured, how much Bitcoin they bought today. And at last week's capture rate of 57%, that means 1,185 Bitcoin purchased. 87.2 million raised today to buy Bitcoin.

[00:02:29]That is 2.6 times the daily minor supply of Bitcoin. And obviously Bitcoin being cheap right now is absolutely awesome.

[00:02:38]There is no better time to do the digital credit preferred equity model than when Bitcoin is cheap. So this team is crushing it. I could not be more bullish on ASST on SATA. And in addition to being a shareholder, the call options are just going to print. I just got to say I freaking love this company. I love the team. You guys are dominating. Thank you for your service, kids. Believe me, we are going to get into more bullish contents, but I really want to take a brief moment to thank Horizon for sponsoring this video. If you guys are interested in converting your trapped home equity that's literally sitting there while Bitcoin is this oversold, you can contact the Horizon team. They will help you every single step of the way to convert your trapped home equity into Bitcoin at these historic valuation levels. And guess what? You don't have to make monthly payments. There are no term limits. There is zero risk of forced liquidation and there are no income requirements. It's literally your home equity into Bitcoin, the thing that eviscerates inflation. Join horizon.com link in the description below. You should absolutely take your trapped home equity to buy Bitcoin. This is not financial advice. This is financial entertainment. That said, I like the play here. Okay, so let's take a trip down memory lane because 2026 is flying by and the trajectory of this company is simply amazing. The SATA average daily volume literally in December of 2025, just 6 months ago, 60,500 shares. Now the SATA average daily volume of this year, including today, is about 42,400 shares. That is a 6.6x increase in the average daily liquidity.

[00:04:20]you know, casually up 565%.

[00:04:24]I wonder if this is a product market fit. And then when we look at the ASST, the common shares, obviously, we see 3.88 million shares of average daily volume 6 months ago. Now that's up to 4.27 million shares. So even that is up 10.2%. And this is the difference. ASST has obviously always been liquid, but SATA is the thing that's undergoing the real metamorphosis here because the digital credit is eating the world.

[00:04:52]Obviously, when we look at the growth of the SATA volume as a percentage of the ASST volume, this is how you get bullish when you see how digital credit is catching on. Look at the December average of 1.83% month by month on to 388, 576, 505, 5.2, 2 and then today 9.03.

[00:05:14]So Seda's share of the trading ecosystem in Strive here, it's gone from 1.8% of the Strive common share volume to 9% which is basically close to a 5x increase. And then when you look at the 20-day average, this is interesting, of SATA as a percentage of the ASST volume, that went from 1.42% in the last 6 months to 9.03% now. That is a 6.4x 4x increase in the relative liquidity penetration here. And then today is just absolutely massive. You have SATA trading 1.6 million ASST 5.88 million.

[00:05:50]So 27.2% was the SATA volume as a percentage of the common stock volume 27%. That means more than one share for every four common stock shares traded. So obviously we have the broad amplified Bitcoin liquidity base of the capital structure.

[00:06:08]And then on top of that, you have the preferred stock that is becoming increasingly liquid and it's yielding 13%. This thing is becoming tradable at scale. And guess what? The daily dividends aren't even here yet. And this is what that looks like. We have the 20-day average just going up to the right over time. And right here is obviously the parody where Seda outrades the common. Now, I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon, but I guess you never know. I'm being surprised every day at this point. If you want a slick visual of the last 6 months, well, there you go. From December of 2025 all the way up until today. This yellow bar is that 1.6 million SATA shares traded. And just the last four days have been incredible. It was actually over a million yesterday.

[00:06:55]And we have seen four straight escalating days leading up into the X dividend date on June 1st. So, this organic growth trend is just insane. And this is kind of the linear fit of that trend going up and to the right over time. But I just got to say, man, this is tremendously exciting when you adjust for the size of Strive. Right now, they have 16,500 Bitcoin. And obviously, it's anybody's guess, okay, how much Bitcoin they actually bought. How much SATA did they issue? We will know more on Monday.

[00:07:27]How much common stock ASST did they issue? maybe to keep that amplification ratio in check, which to be clear, the amplification actually doesn't go down until Bitcoin goes down. But we have to frame this, you know, maybe versus strategy. Let's just do that math really quickly. So, obviously, that estimate there showed you, I don't know, what was that? 1,200 Bitcoin for just today.

[00:07:50]Let's say that they bought 2500 Bitcoin this week with Seda. So, 2500. And let's just say they bought 500 with ASST. I don't know how much they're actually going to buy. Let's say 3,000 Bitcoin total. Now, good old Strive actually has 16,500 Bitcoin right now. So, that is 18% of their stack purchased in one week, give or take. You know, who knows if that estimate is exactly correct, but look at the scale of how successful this week was. 18% of their entire Bitcoin stack using those inputs. Now, if we look to strategy for a good relative comparison, what does that look like?

[00:08:30]Well, strategy here has 843,738 bitcoins. So, let's just do the math really quickly. 843738.

[00:08:38]And what is that 18% of that? Well, that's the equivalent to strategy buying 153,391 Bitcoin in one week. So, it's kind of absolutely insane. And this is why I like the smaller, faster growth rate companies to at least invest in for a little while because this thing is a speedboat while strategy is the battleship. The base effect math, the growth rate because you're small. You cannot ignore the simple math here, folks. So, you might be saying, Adam, this is so fantastic. Thank you for telling me about this stock. I bought in at $7 when you were telling me about it a few months ago, but I want to know when it goes to $100 per share because I want to get rich. I want to eat caviar.

[00:09:27]I want to take up fencing. Well, guess what? I have a very fun bullcase for you that I crunch the numbers on. If you're interested in when this $18 stock reaches $100, well, let's crunch some numbers, shall we? cuz we love some moon math on the Bitcoin Wizard channel, don't we? Folks, hit the like button if you enjoy the moon math. Okay, hit the like button, subscribe. Thank you. So, here we go. This is what's interesting because the daily dividends aren't even here yet. So, who knows how much Bitcoin they can purchase per day? That is the major question. What is the liquidity going to look like? What's going to be the demand for a daily dividend product that pays you a 13% yield? So the big question is how much Bitcoin can they buy per day given the fact that they're already buying more Bitcoin than this number right here? This 400 Bitcoin per day number. I don't know. But obviously it all depends on what Bitcoin is going to do because the Bitcoin price is going to obviously influence an amplified Bitcoin vehicle. You know, if you're holding ASST shares. So the Bitcoin price is huge here. So what am I projecting? All I'm doing is projecting a linear trend back to Bitcoin's all-time high, 126,000. If you don't think it's going to happen in one year, like this model, uh, that's just fine.

[00:10:49]Maybe you think that it takes longer than a year. Maybe you think they can buy more Bitcoin than this input here.

[00:10:56]Maybe you think they can buy less. I don't know. These are just guesses.

[00:11:00]These are some estimates that I'm putting into a model. It's not my opinion. I'm just trying to mathematically gauge out when we could see a $100 share price for ASST. So, this is the setup today. When I ran the math this morning, ASST was $16.94.

[00:11:17]So, that was, you know, toward the lower end of today's trading price. But obviously, they hold 16,500 Bitcoin at least as of today. The Bitcoin NAV just under 1.2 billion of Bitcoin. The enterprise value MNAB is a 1.44x, but I don't like that number. We're going to talk about why, but the preferred outstanding is $576 million. Now, you guys know that I've been using the CEBE model on this channel and on my ex account to do a lot of stock price projections and the dialogue in the Bitcoin Treasury investor community. It is starting to develop a little bit and we are seeing some friendly debate about this particular metric. And in my opinion, this is how I see things. Obviously, you can tell me if you disagree or not.

[00:12:04]Would love to have that conversation with you if you leave a comment. But this is the way that I see the capital structure and I see how I could calculate the stock price going forward using a snapshot measurement mechanism that is CB or CEBE common equity Bitcoin exposure. My good friends at True North were actually debating this metric and they talked about it on the hurdle rate recently too where they were discussing you know what do senior claims mean?

[00:12:34]What does it mean to have a senior claim on the Bitcoin? And this is where I want to be very clear. I don't think all senior claims are converted equal because obviously debt that is coming due maybe you have high interest rate debt. Maybe there's another company that has low interest rate debt. Maybe there's a company like Strive that only has perpetual preferred equity that never comes due. Obviously, I think the market should definitely value those companies differently depending on the risks and the perceived risks of that capital structure. But in my mind, CEBE is not a valuation model necessarily.

[00:13:13]It's a static snapshot of looking at the balance sheet. Now obviously like I said not all senior claims on the balance sheet are created equal but at the end of the day senior claims are senior claims. So I would just challenge this thinking here where I would ask any Bitcoin treasury company investor do you think it is possible to just look at a balance sheet and take a snapshot picture and find out what the common stockholder owns economically. Is it possible without diving into subjectivity about what the valuation of the stock price is in theory or in practice, could you take a static snapshot of the balance sheet and find out what you own economically? Now, I don't think it's perfect to bucket all the senior claims together because I do think that their difference. Therefore, the companies out here like Strategy Strive, they are saying that they are senior and they're saying it in terms of liquidation preference. Now, to be clear, I hate the liquidation preference talk as well. I absolutely hate it. I saw this happen with the strategy preferred last year. And in my mind, this is such a hyper inefficient market that I think potentially one out of 100 preferred stock buyers could even tell you what the liquidation preference is.

[00:14:33]But at the end of the day, these are senior claims in the event of a liquidation. But then on top of that, if you look at the language in the prospectuses, it's actually different.

[00:14:42]There are differences between SATA and stretch. Pardon me if I don't get this exactly correct, but I do think there is some terminology in the SATA perspectus where they talk about having to dilute the ASST shareholders to pay the dividends on SATA. I actually think that there's specific language around that.

[00:14:59]So obviously, it's tough. It's just like how much stock do you put into the senior claim? So obviously I think when you talk about valuing the residual what is left over for the common shareholders when you own ASST I think that the market is always pricing that that's why CEBE in my mind isn't a valuation metric. It's just saying yes there are senior claims. We are going to take that to make it a percentage of the balance sheet because obviously that might tell a more accurate story than Bitcoin per share because we know that obviously if not all senior claims are created equally then all Bitcoin per share isn't created equally either. And anybody would agree with that because there's different terms of debt that you could take on. There are different perpetual preferred equity structures that you could use. But preferred stock isn't free money. So, I don't think BTC yield tells the entire story. So, this is the way I think about things. Okay? Sorry if I'm ranting too much, but this is the way I think about things. I think that if you just bucket the senior claims together, all of them together, because the companies are the ones that are saying that these are senior claims, and then if you are trying your hardest to take a static snapshot of what you own as a common stockholder, you can then project out into the future the cost of carrying that claim. Now obviously we know there's a cost of capital. Strive is paying out a 13% yield. So there is a different cost to carrying the senior claims. I think that what you can do is take a snapshot of the residual. If you bucket the senior claims together and then I can project out what I think Bitcoin's price appreciation will be. I will project out how much Bitcoin I think they can buy, how much common stock they can sell at a particular multiple and also how they're going to pay the dividends. Are they going to pay it with selling common stock with selling Bitcoin using Bitcoin derivatives? I can model all of those things. So my price modeling is this.

[00:17:03]I'm taking a static snapshot of this accounting model. It's just accounting.

[00:17:09]It's not valuation. trying to calculate today's residual and then the multiple above that residual is the valuation of how the market is pricing the stock today and then what I can do is put in the inputs and then each subsequent month I can then take another snapshot.

[00:17:27]So you're going to see what that looks like here. So what did I model? I modeled that the cost will be 13% dividends paid via common stock equity issuance. So, I'm modeling in them selling common stock to pay the dividends. This is fantastic. And it's actually going to be at the same exact CEBE multiple that the stock is trading at today because obviously you guys know if there is a higher CBM nav here.

[00:17:52]Obviously, those are better terms. You can get more Bitcoin with less share dilution that way. So, this is why the math is bullish because this assumes no multiple expansion. Bitcoin simply recovers, remember, linearly, back to its prior all-time high over the next 12 months. So that means, you know, 126k Bitcoin by next June of 2027. And then I'm modeling in them buying 400 Bitcoin per day using only the preferred equity model, but the common stock to service those dividends. So SATA is adding senior claims onto the balance sheet the entire time. But you guys know I have explained a lot of this on the channel.

[00:18:30]Obviously, Bitcoin rising reduces those senior claims because we know that the obligation, that fixed senior claim, those are not compounding things. But the Bitcoin is compounding. So, we use this word drag, the drag against the common equity. And what I would probably suggest for the CB framework here is to maybe change that word because I think drag that has like a negative connotation to it. But at the end of the day, you want drag if you want an amplified bet on Bitcoin. To me, this stock runup over the last three months has been the market not only rewarding the amplification or the drag on the balance sheet, they are rewarding the possibility of continuing to add drag onto the balance sheet. So, drag isn't a bad thing. Drag is a great thing given that you're a Bitcoin bull. And that's why I love the CB model because it takes into account everything and it totally declaws all of the bears. What do you see with the critique of the perpetual preferred equity model with Strive or with Strategy? It's always the dividend obligation. It's the cost of these preferred shares. But this puts the math into the open. Totally delaws all of the clown bears out there. And I can say actually I'm going to take an accounting snapshot of what the preferred claims are costing the common stockholders. And obviously when Bitcoin goes up over time, adding drag is worth it to the common stockholders. So I think there's a lot of negativity of oh no, you actually don't have more common equity Bitcoin exposure because you're issuing the SATA shares. But obviously the math works out amazingly as long as Bitcoin continues to go up and to the right. And obviously if you're buying ASST, you think that will happen anyway. So I like the CB model. I acknowledge that it's not perfect. But obviously if you are claiming that the different senior claims need to be treated differently, then you're introducing some subjectivity. You could argue that maybe you are introducing subjectivity by stacking them all together in the first place. But so far I think it's the best simple snapshot accounting not valuation model. So obviously using this static snapshot model every single month over the next 12 months ASST absolutely smashes Bitcoin's performance with this model given these inputs. That's what it looks like. $19 stock after month one, 22 after month two, 26 after month three, and then all the way down to $100 per share by month 12. Given Bitcoin trending linearly back to 126K in one year, and buying 400 Bitcoin per day with only SATA, not issuing the common stock to buy Bitcoin, and you're paying the dividends with ASST. This is what that accounting snapshot looks like.

[00:21:37]every single month going forward into the future. Now, obviously, reality is not going to unfold linearly like this.

[00:21:45]And this is a quick caveat. This is not factoring in either the common stock dilution from the warrants that are coming up. And that's not a bad thing actually because Strive is actually going to get a lot of working capital if the warrants are exercised. So, I'm actually not including that because obviously that would be introducing in some more assumptions here. You could look at the math and see the common stock dilution. That might suck for the stock price in the short term, but depending on what the Bitcoin price is at, depending on the multiple of ASST, they could actually take that capital and greatly increase your common equity Bitcoin exposure. So, that's super exciting if you're in the stock long-term. But regardless, this is what the model tells you. The green is the stock price for ASST. The orange is the Bitcoin cumulative return. So that's what the outperformance looks like given those inputs. How much Bitcoin can they buy per day with the daily dividends? I don't really know. But all I know is that when I run the math, how can you not be giga bullish on this company?

[00:22:47]They are going to raise the net asset value floor so high by just continuing to accumulate the Bitcoin. And remember this is with no multiple expansion. The market pricing the CB residual at a multiple any higher than it is today.

[00:23:03]This is just the static multiple starting from today extrapolated 12 months into the future. So if you actually see a 2.5x multiple over the common equity Bitcoin exposure, uh things are going to get absolutely ridiculous in a good way for the ASST shareholders. Anyway, that's all I have for you guys. I could not be more bullish on this company. Incredible job team. I love the stock. I love Seda.

[00:23:29]Digital credit is taking over. And I just got to say, whoever could have seen this coming. If only there was some guy named the Bitcoin Wizard who could have told you guys about this. I'm just kidding. Thank you guys so much for your support. If you could do me a favor and like the video and subscribe to the channel, that way you can continue to support me, spread the orange gospel of Bitcoin, digital credit, sailor, strive, whatever, to the entire masses. Thank you so much, everybody. Have a terrific day. Do not party too hard. Class dismissed. We all want to own more Bitcoin, but most of us aren't sitting on piles of idle cash, and that is where Horizon comes in. Horizon lets homeowners convert a portion of their home equity into Bitcoin so they can diversify into an asset with stronger long-term growth potential. What makes Horizon stand out is its flexibility.

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