Commodity Market Updates with Kunal Shah - Head of Research (Commodity)

Added: 2026-05-11

[00:00:13]Good afternoon everyone this is Kunal Shah Head of Commodity Research from Bang and we do this weekly webinar where we try to navigate you about the outlook on commodities what are the trends and what you should be doing.

[00:00:23]So first of all this has been a very volatile weekend where we did not see any constructive peace stock between Iran and the US or so this weekend we did not see any peace stock materializing between Iran and the US.

[00:01:03]From Iran's side we have seen Iran extremely sorry from Iran's side we have seen any terms and conditions of US Iran so there was an interruption I am doing this from my mobile so whenever any call comes then there is a little interruption in between. I am not able to help that. So the talks between US and Iran have failed. Iran has refused to accept the US terms and conditions and has given its own new terms and conditions. It is said in it that whatever nuclear uranium they have, nuclear grade uranium which is energized, they will not give that weapon grade to the US. Secondly, he said that whatever military restrictions were imposed on them, all the deals for removing the restrictions and removing the sanctions should be acceptable to the US also. US is Mr. Trump is travelling to China on Wednesday-Thursday and there it seems that there will be talks again about the peace deal and it seems that more than Pakistan we are going to see China may act as a mediator. Meaning, the true ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has also broken and the situation is very critical and delicate. From here it continues like this again. If the peace deal fails, this war may intensify further.

[00:02:36]So there is one hope and that is the US visit to China. I think that is going to be the big one because China is a close ally of Iran. And if China mediates with Iran and also convinces the US to give up on certain points, then I think this can happen, and otherwise, if this continues, then oil prices will continue to rise and we will see volatility across the world. The biggest movement we have seen in India is that our Prime Minister has come and appealed to the people not to purchase gold for one year.

[00:03:17]Use of crude oil means reduce the use of petrol and diesel.

[00:03:20]Share a car, carpool, travel by metro or use an electric vehicle.

[00:03:29]Our Prime Minister has made such an appeal. So this Clear Cut like brand today is $15 and no session comes. If the fight gets going again, Brand will quickly move to 12530.

[00:03:41]So it's all in fear. I don't think you will be able to trade with any clarity. The government has clearly issued a notification today that we will not increase the customs duty. But I feel that the government has taken some major steps like for example, increasing GST. Increased it from 3 taka to 10 taka or else we will do something so that the gold prices that are continuously being taken away by people in India will reduce a bit. So I think at this time there are three reasons for India's current account deficit which is increasing. Crude oil, gold and edible oil. It wo n't work without cooking oil. It wo n't work without crude either. So if gold is imported a little less then it will be fine. This is an appeal from the Government of India to our countrymen, Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

[00:04:37]Due to this, we are seeing a lot of chaos in the domestic sector.

[00:04:43]What will happen if people don't have clarity? Jewellers are anticipating. Their sales will drop because of this. So still there is lot of time but we cannot forecast anything right now. But if oil continues to rise like this, then gold will get stuck here for a while. The level of 4800 that we have seen at the higher levels, going above that seems a bit difficult in the near term. And if we talk about silver, then for the fundamental uptrend, as per the new investment that is happening in AI in the US, in data centers, if silver falls by $3 then one should take it and work on it.

[00:05:18]Silver seems fine to me. There is a rise in copper, aluminium, zinc, lead etc. One should buy on dip.

[00:05:28]I feel that aluminium, especially because of the ongoing sulphuric acid crisis, these two metals can perform better. So buy dips strategy is kept in metals. So I am definitely buying fast crude oil.

[00:05:50]Crude oil is a buy until there is a session.

[00:05:54]Rupa Bhai Gur Seed can go up to 7000 in 3 months.

[00:05:57]Gold seems to be rising.

[00:05:59]Pradeep Kumar Bhoot ji Jai Shri Krishna Kunal Sir Copper Holding Gold Silver Holding Please Update. Hold copper.

[00:06:06]Hold silver. Gold may come down a bit because of all this news.

[00:06:13]Demand from India will decrease. Pradeep Kumar ji 15 China meeting any curation possible yes this is a very important meeting we do not know what will come out of it but there is a lot of anticipation that if US and China bring some positive solution then something like this will happen for everyone, for the welfare of all, Kunal sir in the event of USA how much down you see in gold and silver at this stage if the war starts then oil will become 12530. The world is not in a position to recover, especially the Asian economy is already in bad shape. So in that scenario, there could be a correction of $200 in gold and $5 in silver.

[00:07:01]Sir, where is the buy in silver?

[00:07:04]Buy around $79. Sukh Fin Edu Block Kunal Bhai Sat Sri Akal. Sat Sri Akal Sukhwinder Ji after something big can happen in crude. There is no big deal in crude, but we cannot reduce the import of crude immediately. So nothing big government just appealing to the nation that use energy very carefully. So now for example, if three members of our family are going in three cars, then brother should go in one car or if five people are going to office in different cars, then if all five live nearby, then they should travel in one car, this is the request of the Prime Minister, in the event of new speculation over gold, what is your event in the long run and also may it happen in silver if gold comes down MCX, why heavy pressure on OBIT is taking place, Raj ji, I did not understand your question, in the event of new speculation over gold, what is your view, see, the long term outlook of gold is good, if the demand of India falls below 200-300 tonnes, then it will be a little subdued, but overall the fundamental of gold is better, 100 $200, if oil increases sharply, then it may come down. There doesn't seem to be much slowdown beyond that.

[00:08:23]I don't track the electricity future.

[00:08:27]Akshay Verma ji sir I belong to the jewellery industry everyone knows so what should we do from here I think you should prepare that if people listen to the government's appeal and sales decrease then you have to prepare for the alternative income scenario but there is a possibility that the sales can have a negative impact for some time the market sentiment has become a bit bad so that let's I will meet you guys on Wednesday until then see you and hope that all this gets sorted well. The US-China meeting will be the biggest event of the week. Thank you.

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