DXY Quietly Sets Up for 100 While Stocks Hit New Highs

本站添加: 2026-05-15

[00:00:07][music] >> The US 10-year is approaching 4.6%.

[00:00:14]It is actually starting to look like it's starting to break out to the upside. In this video, I'm going to show you why exactly that matters with the currencies. Let's dive right into the charts of the 10-year yield. So, right now, again, we're closing in on the 4.6%.

[00:00:30]As US government 10-year it decides to rise, more of the currencies are going to run from those currencies and into the DXY as the Treasury bonds continue up.

[00:00:44]Here's the DXY. As you can see, it we are pushing higher. In my previous videos, I said to monitor this low pivot point in the charts at 97.641.

[00:00:54]That is exactly where the US dollar got a bid from. I did anticipate a little bit of a further selling pressure.

[00:01:01]However, um or drawdown in the DXY, however, it failed to get below this low pivot, and now we're seeing a nice move to the upside.

[00:01:09]The 10-year uh yield, if it if the DXY gets up to around 9.3 99.33, this is where we're likely to get a little bit of a pullback in the 10-year yield. And that's actually right up into this high pivot point right here on the 10-year yield as well. You should get a little bit of a fall or a pullback all the way back down to this high pivot point right here at 4.49 after the breakout.

[00:01:34]Now, we have not confirmed above this level on the US 10-year, and DXY still needs to break above this. If that happens, then all of a sudden the 10-year yield will continue to rise, and so will the DXY.

[00:01:49]The DXY is next level resistance is going to be right here at 100.228.

[00:01:55]Now, let's take a look at the GBPUSD.

[00:01:59]So the British pound up sloping support level and pivot low here, secondary hit, third hit, fourth hit. If the DXY and the US 10-year decide to break out, what's going to happen is we are going to get a little bit of support right here around the dollar 32 on the British pound. However, if that breaks and based on technicals this is first, second, third, fourth hit with price consolidation, the fifth hit actually favors a continuation move to the downside. And so this could indicate that the US dollar is starting to rip higher and will continue to push all the way up to the $100 level.

[00:02:41]Right now, 131 would be your next level of support on the British pound.

[00:02:47]The euro.

[00:02:48]Here's the chart of the European the US euro versus the US dollar.

[00:02:54]On this chart, here we have a low pivot point here, secondary hit.

[00:02:58]The third hit isn't until we go up a little bit higher or down a little bit higher on the euro.

[00:03:04]Right now, again, we're starting to break this support level. This could indicate again that the euro is starting to weaken, money is rotating from the euro, the British pound, Australian dollar back into the DXY and that could facilitate even more of a drawdown on the European the US dollar.

[00:03:26]Now, we haven't confirmed below this pivot low.

[00:03:30]We haven't confirmed a breakout on the DXY yet.

[00:03:33]What we're waiting for is both the DXY and the euro to break either to the downside which would be the euro breaks below here, confirms and then retraces. This is where you would look to exit and then wait for the dollar to push higher and the euro could head all the way down to a dollar 15.

[00:03:55]That would take the DXY all the way up to about the hundred dollar level on the DXY.

[00:04:02]Australian dollar. This is actually staying a little bit stronger. Although there always is an inverse reaction to what's going on with the US dollar, the uh AUD isn't getting quite the pullback as the other ones. It's staying a little bit stronger. Look at all this price consolidation. Yeah, this pivot high here, price got above it, never confirmed, got a nice rejection, dropped all the way down to 68.

[00:04:28]Rejected again, rejected again, finally broke out.

[00:04:32]Didn't confirm until this candle. This right here on the AUD is just a retrace of the scene of the crime. So, what we're monitoring is if price can actually break back above this level and confirm, then we're going to see another push to the upside. If we start breaking down, which is likely to happen even though we've already broken out and this is a retrace, if the DXY continues to push up, the AUD is going to see additional selling pressure. 7111 or excuse me, 711 is where your next level support is and then you could head all the way down to this high pivot point and then really this would be the max downside for me in Australian dollar as money rotates.

[00:05:17]We've always got to identify additional support levels. So, what I'm going to do is I'm going to connect this pivot low here.

[00:05:23]Secondary support here.

[00:05:25]So, here's your next level support.

[00:05:27]Okay.

[00:05:28]71579 is a support level on the AUD.

[00:05:33]Next level support, I did say it was going to be down here, but really it's this up seven trend line. This would be the third hit and you had all this price consolidation. So, if he gets down to about 70 on the AUD, this is where a nice support level will be knowing that we've got additional support all the way down to 69262 and that's on the AUD.

[00:05:54]The Japanese Yen JPY is getting crushed.

[00:05:58]This is why I like technicals.

[00:06:01]What I've done is I've connected a pivot top and I've got to zoom out quite considerably. Pivot top here, secondary hit, third hit, fourth hit, fifth hit, sixth hit. Now, I was mentioning that when support levels get hit repeatedly, they do favor a breakdown. This resistance level did favor a push up.

[00:06:22]However, because it was still sustained weakness in the Japanese Yen versus US Dollar, now we're getting this nice sell-off. Your support level is going to be right here at this these low pivots in the chart of the Japanese Yen. 6257 is where that support is going to get to. Now, if the DXY continues to push, we're not only going to get a a further sell-off past this 6257 level, but we're actually going to get a drop all the way into this major pivot support at 6177.

[00:06:55]So, a couple different things to take a look at when we're charting these things is what's going on with the 10-year, what's going on with the US Dollar, and what the Fed in the US is doing with the interest rates.

[00:07:10]If we get a breakout and a continued move to the upside, the US Dollar is going to have money rotating into it because of the most of the world sees the US Dollar as the safe haven. Even though stocks are rising, still we're putting in new all-time highs regularly, we have to pay attention to what's going on inside of the stock market or inside of the 10-year yield and what the government does with the interest rates because that's what's going to dictate where the money flows from one currency to the next. Even if we have, again, those stock prices continuing to rise, on the currencies, we have to observe the tenure. So, that's what I have for you guys. Again, my name is Benjamin Poole, head trader here at Verified Investing. If you guys are getting something out of this, please make sure you're liking, you're following, subscribing, and sharing with those friends so that way they can get ahead of the markets and know when those potential reversals are coming and what to pay attention to that's going to make a difference in their portfolios.

[00:08:09]You guys have a great rest of your day.

[00:08:10]Take care.