DIRECTO PULSO DE MERCADO | EL DÓLAR VUELA Y HUNDE AL ORO Y EL CRUDO: EMPIEZA LA CAÍDA DE WALL STREET

[00:00:04][music] [music] Good afternoon, we're starting another afternoon of market pulse, my name is Alba Puerro and it's a pleasure for me to host this program on economics and financial markets as Europe closes and the first hours of Wall Street. During the next hour we will watch news and review the market together with expert traders and colleagues in the industry.

[00:00:41]Let's first look at those heat maps from the first hours of Wall Street. It's already turned around; we were seeing a more red color, especially at the opening, and the semiconductor sector is pulling quite strongly.

[00:00:57]Let's see if we can remove that skirt so it looks much better, there it is.

[00:01:04]Micron Technology is up almost 8%, Marvel is up 10.71%, Qualcomm is up 5.39%, Intel is up 7.10%, Nvidia is up 2.15%, and Broadcom is up 3.89%. The dethroned one, they took away her crown, SpaceX took it away, she was the sixth largest company by US market capitalization and SpaceX came along and took that throne away. Otherwise we saw a redder tone that is already recovering.

[00:01:37]We see Microsoft is only down -0.30 and it's possible that if it continues upwards, trying to reach new highs, the Nasdaq could turn green. Palantir does suffer more, -2.63 and Tesla -2.35. SpaceX was also giving way in the early hours. And well, with these heat maps we get started. We also have the defensive consumer sector. Walmart and Costco are down 1.12%. Walmart is giving up 0.53 and we also have Meta and Google that are looking to go green. Well, Meta is already in the green, plus 0.40.

[00:02:20]Google -0.20%. Netflix is up by 0.24. But it's the semiconductor sector, and there we also have hardware, which is also performing well, with Sandisk up 10.53%. With these heat maps we start the program and I want to, well, show another image now, and it's one that many traders will have encountered on their platforms today or throughout the week, because we are rotating the contract expirations. I'm leaving this image here, which is what we 've encountered throughout the week on different platforms; either the asset disappears completely or it turns black and tells us to load the one for the next expiration. What is this?

[00:03:12]Well, it means that the indices are being loaded, the futures are referenced, and we have to switch to the contracts that start in September. Every four months is a little bit, every three months, sorry, is when we have to rotate.

[00:03:28]And this week all the contracts expiring in September are rolling over, tomorrow is the last day, but many brokers, as we can see, are already changing. If this message appears on your Metatrader 4 or 5 platforms, go to the quotes list, click show all, and the September quotes will appear in the list. Or if it's another platform, you have to go and search for assets, the asset you want, and then you put in, well, SP 500, you put in Nasdaq and the one expiring in September will come up, so you have to activate them and they start working right away. And this stock market phenomenon has a name, tomorrow's name, and it's called quadruple witching hour. This stock market phenomenon occurs four times a year, once every quarter, as I said, to designate the Fridays of the months in which the quarterly contracts for options and futures on indices and options on stocks expire.

[00:04:20]Initially it was called the triple witching hour and later, after the launch of stock futures, the famous witching hour is known in stock market jargon, in the business world, as the quadruple witching hour. The reason for labeling that hour or day as a witch is none other than the supposed extra volatility that occurs in the prices of listed securities and these assets for a short period of time. This occurs because the portfolios of these securities that were hedging the derivatives have to be unwound when the futures and options contracts expire and those of the next expiration have to be purchased. The term has become very popular among investors and traders due to the intensity, tension and even emotion with which that moment is awaited and experienced, and sometimes the remarkable consequences, because as I said, there is a bit of extra volatility. We have fixed times tomorrow when the deadlines will be closing. During the morning, the Ibex, the Dax, the CAC 40, and other European stock markets will be winning.

[00:05:21]And then in the afternoon, leading up to the opening, we'll have the expirations of, well, the American stock exchanges. And now for a piece of news that I did n't share yesterday, I didn't have time, but it's a piece of news that's both interesting and, well, so that we don't belittle these public figures too often. We're looking at, well, an image by Sam Bankman, from FTX. And why? Because Sam Bankman Fried is formally requesting a pardon from President Trump. So far Donald Trump hasn't made a statement, he hasn't said anything, but I'm bringing this up because Sam Bankman, the man behind the FTX scam, chose every winner of the 2020s and his lawyers, after the trial or right during the trial, sold everything off at the bottom, at the lowest price. If they had waited, if the FTX fortune, from all the choices of Sam Bankman Fried, this character we are seeing on screen, had not been sold, if they had not sold his assets during that bankruptcy, Sam Bankman Fried would be sitting today on a $114 billion empire.

[00:06:30]However, instead he is watching the best deals unfold from a prison cell with his entire fortune dismantled. The data is almost impossible to believe, he nailed practically every position, bought Anthropic, Sam Bankman Fried bought an 8% stake and sold it in 2024 for $1.3 billion. Today, as of this moment, it would be worth more than 80 trillion dollars, 165 times the almost 2 million, but they had to raise cash to pay.

[00:07:02]SpaceX also entered with a position with a massive stake that was liquidated early to pay creditors.

[00:07:09]Today that would be more than 95 times. He also bought Solana, it was an early support at $8, the asset unloaded a massive block at $64 and today he would have 27 times that. He also bought Robinhood, which they liquidated and dismantled, and would have made an eight- for-eight, and Genesis Digital also bought it, and this would have been a one-for-three.

[00:07:33]This is the latest fortune lost.

[00:07:35]Alameda Research also wrote a small check for $200,000 for a 5% stake in the AI ​​startup Cursor, and in April 2023, the bankruptcy estate sold that entire stake back for exactly $200,000—which was roughly what they paid. And this past Tuesday, SpaceX announced an agreement to buy Cursor for $60 billion.

[00:08:00]So that worthless stake for $200,000 would be worth $3 billion today—a return of 15,000 times what disappeared because the lawyers wanted a quick exit. So this man we see on screen, besides being a good con artist, was a genius at choosing generational winners and a criminal at handling his money. The lawyers recovered $18 billion to distribute and compensate users, and if they had only held onto a little more, they would be sitting on $114 billion, they would have covered all the claims, refunds, and it is the most valuable venture capital portfolio in history from 2020 until now. So with that news, I wanted to start the program.

[00:08:53]We know that, well, as I said, the United States is heading towards a green tone, it's turning in a V shape. We saw yesterday's statements from Kevin Warsh that the dollar skyrocketed, and that's why gold is on the ropes, oil too, the euro is down against the dollar, the pound is down against the dollar, and the stock markets are indeed recovering now. So, as we turn our attention to the European stock markets, I want to welcome my first guest so you can all get to know him.

[00:09:24]First time here on Pulso de Mercados, José Javier González, how are you?

[00:09:30]Hi how are things? Good afternoon, Alba, good afternoon everyone.

[00:09:34]This afternoon, the markets are turning green again, as you said, which is a joy. So, fantastic.

[00:09:41]That's how it is. Well, José Javier González is an advisor to the Gesi Value Capital fund, and we've brought him to the program. He's been a colleague in the markets for many years, and I think that with your methodology or your way of analyzing stocks and securities, you're going to give us an interesting presentation on something that you already have a selection of interesting things to tell us. And first of all, if you want to share your thoughts on what you 're seeing in the markets right now, how you see everything, feel free.

[00:10:16]Perfect, well, what I see in the markets, and in fact we're perhaps seeing it now in the presentation, is that it's a somewhat bipolar market, okay? Because there are a number of niches, subsectors that are growing tremendously and rising like crazy, and in fact, some of those stocks are already trading at quite demanding multiples, including future growth, which we'll see now. However, there are other parts of the market that have lagged behind or even experienced significant drops, and we're not talking about small companies, indebted companies, or companies in complicated sectors; we're seeing quality companies that are being offered at very low prices. So, today I've brought you a couple of things to see the market in general, and then we'll go into three or four companies that might be interesting for the listeners to consider today.

[00:11:17]The audience is great, fantastic, because you can share your screen whenever you want, José Javier.

[00:11:24]For those who don't know him on social media, he's @gestiprudent, and so, well, you can see a little more about his style, especially his analysis. And there we are, sharing the screen, fantastic.

[00:11:43]Okay, I hope it can be seen. Okay, this first slide is to show us that the indices are at their peak, we know that, everyone knows that, we have many world indices at their peaks and especially the Nasdaq pulling very strongly.

[00:12:00]Well, what we see here is that if we look at the S&P 500 from March 1st until now, we know that it has risen significantly, but if we divide it in two, if we divide the S&P 500 in general, which we see rising a lot above, and if we were to remove everything that is the blue line, if we were to remove everything that is artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and all the infrastructure for artificial intelligence, then the S&P 500, in fact, would not have moved; it would be at the same level as 3 months ago. Uh, this, in fact, is what Goldman Sachs prepared as of June 5th, since then it has separated even more, uh, semiconductors have risen even more. So we have to keep in mind that it's a very bifurcated market with that situation. In fact, if we move to the next slide we have the indices at their highest points, but there are a number of companies that will sound familiar to many people, which are quality, well-known companies that we see falling in what the fourth column of numbers here is the year to date, and the other is a full year, from a year ago, right? And we see well-known companies like Adobe, Amadeus in Spain, Mastercard, SAP in Germany, Constellation Software, Booking, etc., etc., which we see with drops of up to 40-something percent, so a market of quite a few opportunities is being created.

[00:13:56]Salesforce too, uh sorry, I didn't have my microphone on. We have it down there, and many of them are software-based, right? From the famous SaaS.

[00:14:06]Yes, indeed, here are the ones I have on this list that I have selected, which I call companies punished by the artificial intelligence narrative. And I say "because of the narrative" because in many of these companies, the numbers don't show anything at all yet. They present their results, and the numbers keep growing, their sales keep growing, their profits keep growing, and in fact, when they talk about artificial intelligence, they often say that it's generating opportunities for them—opportunities to reduce costs thanks to introducing artificial intelligence to improve, for example, their systems and software, and also opportunities for customers to provide a better service of superior value and charge for it.

[00:14:55]So it's very interesting how this narrative is really destroying the stock market for so many companies, and I think that within those—not all of them, but within those—there are some that are indeed interesting. And so, well, I've brought three American companies to talk about, and then one Spanish one. I have all four in my portfolio, and they are among the main companies in my portfolio, and I think it might be interesting for the audience, at least to study them.

[00:15:27]Mhm.

[00:15:28]So if you're okay with it, I'll move on to the first one.

[00:15:31]Okay.

[00:15:32]Here we see Booking.

[00:15:35]Booking, which everyone knows, this is a very Peter Lynch-esque company, isn't it? We already know that Peter Lynch liked to invest in things that he saw in his day-to-day life that were good and that gave a good product, a good service, and then he would look at them to see if the numbers added up, right? So, here we have Booking, which the audience will know perfectly well.

[00:16:02]This is a company, as we know, that mainly handles hotel bookings, but you can also book flights and cars.

[00:16:11]And what we have is a massive network effect. That's their, let's say, defensive moat, isn't it? It has a lot of hotels on its platform, so users want to go to its platform to search for hotels and at the same time there are also many users, so the hotels want to be there; it's in both parties' interest. And they, in the middle lands, well, they're collecting the toll, aren't they?

[00:16:37]And what we can see from a quality company, here are the numbers of sales and profits, the evolution over the years.

[00:16:47]The important thing is that we see that from 2010 to the present, then here in the gray box are the next ones, what is expected, the consensus in the coming years, the consensus of analysts.

[00:16:58]Well, what we can see is that except for Covid, of course, this company was going to suffer during Covid, but it didn't even incur losses at the time of Covid, that is, it continued to be in the green in terms of profits, sales fell, profits were maintained and what we see is that profits keep growing year after year.

[00:17:19]And what we can also observe is that this is expected to continue in the coming years, according to the consensus of analysts. This is a quality company, a company that has been growing its business at a rate of 15% annually, 10-15% annually, for a few more years.

[00:17:38]And therefore, when profits are growing at that rate, it's normal for the share price to do the same, and that's why the share price has been doing very well until recently when it started to fall, right? Let's look at the next slide.

[00:17:57]Because what's happening with Booking is that it's using its profit to buy back its own shares.

[00:18:06]What we see here is from 2014 to 2025 how it had 1325 million shares in 2014 and how it is now down to 815 million shares. What does that mean in a way that the audience can understand? This means that future profits are divided among fewer and fewer shares, therefore earnings per share increase rapidly.

[00:18:34]It increases even more than the profit increases because that profit, which grows by 10%, is distributed. If the number of shares in circulation falls by 5%, then the profit per share grows even more than the 10%, right? And that means that over time, because the price always follows the fundamentals sooner or later, the share price will tend to rise as much as that earnings per share increase. In the following chart we see how that price per share has evolved.

[00:19:05]And what we see here is that the company, starting from $0.34, not even one dollar per share, is now at $9 per share, it has multiplied its earnings per share many times and will continue to multiply it, it is expected in the coming years.

[00:19:21]Therefore, a significant return is expected. That's Booking. Now that we understand a little about the methodology, let's look at one more to see the potential.

[00:19:31]What is Booking's price today? Booking is trading today, as you can see here, at a P/E ratio of 17.16.8.

[00:19:38]The long-term average of the S&P 500 has been in that area, at 16.17 times. Right now it's around 24 times, 24, 25 times.

[00:19:51]And here we have a quality company trading at what the average has normally traded, and we see here how, as profit grows—expected to grow by 16%, 15% in the coming years, here we see 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2020, 2021—and we see how the P/E ratio would fall to as low as 8 in 2031.

[00:20:16]What [snort] does that mean? This does not mean that it will stay this way, this means that the price will recover. It's perfectly normal for the price to recover. It has that potential, I always like to talk about probabilities. The probability is that the price will rise is higher than in these circumstances.

[00:20:36]The potential that comes out to me, sorry, yes, yes, yes.

[00:20:40]My 3-year potential is that it will rise by 89%.

[00:20:46]In 5 years, it is expected to rise 157% from where the price is today. So we don't really see the potential that Booking has. I'll move on to the next one because I want to give us time to see, uh, four companies, and if there's time for any more, well, if you want, we can ask.

[00:21:02]time.

[00:21:03]Perfect.

[00:21:04]Well, with Uber, a somewhat similar story is happening, although Uber is more recent, right? Their, let 's say, their profit generation is more recent. Uber, until recently, was another one that everyone knew, very Peter Lynch-esque, right?

[00:21:20]And again you see here sales growth in the orange part, year after year, and what is expected in the future.

[00:21:28]And what we see here, what I've shown you, is the cash flow.

[00:21:33]What we see here in the purple part is the cash flow, which we see that until recently, until 2021, was burning cash.

[00:21:43]He used more cash than he received, and therefore increased his debt.

[00:21:48]However, it is already in the black.

[00:21:52]And it's growing and growing very rapidly. Because? Because there is something called operating leverage.

[00:22:00]When a company is able to grow its sales, but costs do not increase at the same rate, increasing less, profit and cash generation increase faster than sales increase.

[00:22:15]Why is that? Why is that? Because it has a portion of its costs that are fixed.

[00:22:19]Imagine the costs of the entire platform of having built the Uber platform over the years. It's very expensive; that software, that platform, is a very important intangible asset, isn't it? But the most important part of that is that it's a fixed cost, which no longer increases. Of course, it has the variable part of the drivers, the Uber car drivers, right? That's definitely increasing in line with sales, isn't it?

[00:22:47]And suddenly also autonomous driving, which Uber is also starting to develop, you'll know about it. A month ago they were saying, well, that they were also preparing their fleet of autonomous Uber drivers.

[00:23:02]Indeed, what the market has here is fear, and that's why the share price has fallen and why it has reached a very reasonable price.

[00:23:11]The market is afraid of Tesla.

[00:23:14]Mainly, right? Regarding the entry of autonomous cars, but mainly Tesla, and whether it will take away market share or even affect it even more. However, what Uber is demonstrating is that it is partnering with companies that manufacture autonomous cars, like Waymo, for example, and that it is going to be the market consolidator; that is, on one hand we are going to have the companies that manufacture the cars, those autonomous cars, but they need someone to bring them the demand.

[00:23:53]These people can put autonomous cars into service as taxis and thus generate money for those companies, but they need someone to bring them the demand. And Book and Uber, sorry, bring the lawsuit with their platform. It brings them the demand and also, uh, all the management of the cars, the prices, uh, imagine the number of times someone leaves something uh in a taxi, in an Uber, and you have to return it to the customers, right? Well, all those kinds of things that we don't think about, well, they're difficult to manage, and Uber has totally got it figured out, right? So, well, what do we see?

[00:24:33]Partly because of the potential; the price today is 72.

[00:24:38]Here we see that Uber, with the expected profit this year, would have a P/E ratio of 22.

[00:24:44]This is a company that is growing much faster than Booking and deserves, and right now deserves, a higher P/E ratio.

[00:24:50]The profit is growing at a rate of 35% annually.

[00:24:56]Well, we see that with that growth in profits in the coming years it would also reach a PER of 8 in 5 years, and a PER of 11 in 3 years. Which again doesn't mean that's going to happen.

[00:25:11]If quality companies, or rather, if average companies in the market have been valued at a P/E ratio of 17, quality companies are usually valued at higher P/E ratios, which will mean that the price will increase, right?

[00:25:27]Again, it's just probabilities, right? The probability of that happening is quite high.

[00:25:31]Well, the price usually tends to follow the fundamentals. What is the potential in 3 years? So the price is at 130 and that has a plus 80 from here 3 years, therefore, giving a fairly significant annual return. And in 5 years, well, that it's at 180, 150% increase with respect to where the price is currently, right?

[00:25:55]Hey, that's Uber.

[00:25:58]Meta, which everyone also knows, we carry in our hands every day.

[00:26:02]That's how it is.

[00:26:03]Instagram, Facebook, which is used less now, but Instagram has more and more users, and WhatsApp, right? That is yet to be monetized.

[00:26:12]In fact, 3.5 billion people connect to a Meta app every day.

[00:26:26]It is half of the world's population. It's just amazing. And that, of course, has value; you can generate a lot of money in advertising, which is how they generate returns. In fact, their sales are growing at a rate of 20% annually.

[00:26:42]And they are not with fair margins, having an operating margin of 41%.

[00:26:47]Therefore, as it grows, this is a company that, uh, has operating leverage and that generates a lot of that sales growth goes to profit growth, right?

[00:27:03]And right now the market is punishing it, well, mainly because of the fear surrounding its spending on artificial intelligence. It's investing very heavily in AI; it's a lot of capital expenditure.

[00:27:19]In fact, this is also happening to other companies like Microsoft or Amazon, whose stock prices are a bit lower than what you'd normally pay for them because of the large investment they're making. But that investment will have a return, and the market is currently only focusing on the cost of the investment and not on the return it will have. Here we see it: the consensus of analysts is telling us that sales and profits in the gray area are going to continue to rise quite significantly. And what is Meta's stock price?

[00:27:54]Well, Meta is currently trading at $570.

[00:28:00]The potential upside for 3 years, as I see it, would be around $1000, a 75% increase, and the potential upside for 5 years is $1250, a 120% increase. Again, here we see how earnings per share would go from $32 to $57 in 5 years, with a fairly significant growth, which is what the consensus of analysts expects.

[00:28:27]And again, of course, that P/E ratio is very low; it's at the long-term market average of 17 times, well below the current market average of 23, 24, 25 times, and if we look at the Nasdaq, if we look at the S& P 500, it's at the average, and yet, well, here we have a quality company that is trading at a discount. And these are the kinds of things, well, they're opportunities, right? Right now, for example, this week I'm handing over many of my semiconductor shares; they're coming out of the fund, and I'm increasing my stake in these types of companies that are being punished. It's the rotation from companies that have risen a lot in price, which are already trading at high multiples, to companies that are cheaper, to benefit from that future growth, right? Okay, finally, uh, if there's time, how are we doing on time? We have 3 minutes. You're doing a great job with the timing.

[00:29:29]We have Booking, Uber, and Meta.

[00:29:32]I had to bring in a Spanish company.

[00:29:35]Okay.

[00:29:35]And for this one, I've brought you the website of their main project directly. The Spanish company is called Clerp Estructuras.

[00:29:43]It is a company that until now did the concrete structure, uh the engineering of concrete structures for uh for buildings, for other companies, but uh recently, in the last few years, they have bought some land in the Dominican Republic, where they are going to be developers for the first time.

[00:30:05]And here's what we can see: the big project is called Larimar, and it's a true leisure city, a smart leisure city, which they want to take advantage of. The Dominican Republic is very well located for Americans and Canadians, those baby boomers who are going to retire. I know there are 40 million Americans who are going to retire in the next 10 years, and many of them are looking for a second home, and some even a primary residence, in places like the Dominican Republic, right? They are more affordable than buying them on the US coast, yet they have a short flight. Just like Europeans come to our islands and buy things in our Balearic Islands, right? The Germans, for example, well, the same thing is happening there. The project is already under construction, a large part of the first phase has been pre-sold, and right now the company is trading simply at the value of the land.

[00:31:15]And it still has a lot of growth ahead of it. This is a 10-15 year project. In addition, Claire Estructuras will retain ownership of the common areas which it will rent out for restaurants, hotels, casinos, leisure areas in general, sports, etc. Here on this website, Larimar City, you can find golf courses, etc., etc. Here we see a situation with the rise in raw material prices.

[00:31:49]How do you think they have already structured or planned their expenses, I imagine already taking into account inflation and all the additional costs that exist right now?

[00:31:58]Yes, in fact, what they have done is sign contracts. You can see them on their website because they are contracted, for example, with Roca for the entire project at a fixed price for the next few years. They have also contracted, for example, with the elevator supplier, who will provide the elevators for the construction in the coming years.

[00:32:20]Macrocontracts I think the elevators are Contisen Group. Large contracts where the price is very open because this is a huge deal. Here are 22,000 homes, it's a city.

[00:32:34]It's a city, of course.

[00:32:36]It's a real city of Y and the truth is, well, it's very interesting to see, people should take a look because it's a company to consider.

[00:32:46]Analysts, the latest studies I 've seen, with good analysis, give it a price and already discounted with the risk, they give it an estimated price of thirty-something euros, it's currently trading at ten euros.

[00:33:00]Hey, so we can find this value?

[00:33:04]This is listed on the Spanish stock exchange, on the BME Growth.

[00:33:07]In the BME Growth, that is, the one before the MAB, the Alternative Stock Market.

[00:33:14]Correct.

[00:33:14]And, well, just so you know, of all the options you've given, this last one is the riskiest of them all.

[00:33:21]Of course. So, in the portfolio, you have to have one, you have to diversify, and you have to [sigh] look at the risk-return ratio, it's about giving it an appropriate weight in the portfolio, that's what we managers do.

[00:33:32]That's how it is. Well, that's what we'll have to go with.

[00:33:37]José Javier González, it has been a true pleasure.

[00:33:40]Very structured, very clean, and we're sticking with these options: Booking, Uber, Meta, and this last one, uh, you said Clerh, right?

[00:33:50]Clehr Structures. C L E R H P.

[00:33:54]That's right. Well, that's all for now, José Javier. It's been a real pleasure having you here at Pulso de Mercados.

[00:34:00]Thank you very much, Alwin. It's a pleasure for me too.

[00:34:03]A hug. Bye, bye.

[00:34:04]A hug. Greetings to all.

[00:34:09]And given the time, it has just taken place and we are in the middle of the closing auction, let's go with the closing of the European stock exchanges with Nordea.

[00:34:20]Nordea Asset Management offers you the closing of European markets.

[00:34:30]DAX, we have it up 0.45 percent, it's up 150 points intraday, it's at 25,052, it has already recovered. The CAC 40 also rose further by 0.50% to 8,471 points. The IBEX 35 is flat, still at its highs, all those highs it reached this week, it's not giving up at all, we have it at 19,408 points. Euro Stoxx up 0.57% at 6,336 points. And FTSE is indeed falling 1% to 10,400 points.

[00:35:13]Nordea Asset Management has offered to close the European markets.

[00:35:23]And we have, uh, already connected our next guest, he is Marc Ribes.

[00:35:29]How are you, Marc?

[00:35:31]Very well, good afternoon.

[00:35:33]Good afternoon, Marc Ribes, co-founder of Blackbird.

[00:35:37]And there it is, better. Better, phenomenal.

[00:35:40]And, well, as a market analyst and professional trader, he's always showing us signs of strength, weakness, sectors, and that rotation, where he's focusing his attention. He already told us that a good way, uh, was to go into Zoom, to get a little bit into what that idea was, right?

[00:36:01]Oh that one, that one.

[00:36:03]Yes, yes, yes, there, there we are, there we are. I still know, it's still there, eh. In fact, notice that some of them are designed to get us to buy them, aren't they?

[00:36:10][laughs] Yes, no, they remain, they do remain because, of course, in fact, we are buying today, all things considered. And, um, there's Zoom, it's down. We also take advantage, if you'll allow me, uh, I always like to focus on the operational side, right? Because not everything is guessing.

[00:36:30]We like Zoom, but we know it's a weird company, right?

[00:36:34]Because it has technological components, but then it also has value components. Let's go, look, if we go here, very quickly, and we go to ZM, because sometimes we don't look at these things, right? And these things need to be looked at. This company is worth 25 billion. Here's the market capitalization, and I think it's always good to put the numbers into context, right?

[00:37:00]And in the accounting statements, there's no need to waste much time either, right? I believe that in the end, stock market prediction based on charts is just as toxic as predicting what a company is worth. A company doesn't have an exact price; it has a price that each investor is willing to pay, right?

[00:37:16]Hey, look at what they're paying for SpaceX and Tesla. I don't pay it, but there are investors who do and make money, so, no, but in this case, Zoom, what it has in cash, look, it has 8 billion, that's 30% of its market capitalization, because it's a company that barely has any debt, right?

[00:37:39]So, the net cash flow is very important, isn't it? And a 30% capitalization means that we have 8,000 of these 25,000. It's like we were going to buy a Volkswagen Polo GTI with 25,000 euros on coches.net and that car had 8,000 euros in the trunk. You'd think, "Damn, what a deal, huh? 25,000 sounds good to me, but they're throwing in 8,000 for free." This is the same thing, isn't it?

[00:38:04]And of course, what Zoom also has is that it invested 50 million, as I was saying, in Anthropic, right? Then he got into it.

[00:38:12]We went for it, okay. There's a moment when we look at the chart, right? And there comes a point when the price is on the monthly chart, right?

[00:38:22]Here we have the whole boom of the pandemic, where it would seem that we would do everything with Zoom and then go downhill, okay? Okay, we exclude this, out, it doesn't exist.

[00:38:31]And the market starts, well, the typical downward pattern and so on, and then, well, the dynamics change, right? Here it seems the market sees something different and gets stuck at a high resistance, it fails, right here, it fails, it goes back down again and we buy and the price stretches. It's precisely when the resistance breaks that we really say, okay, either this pulls or it doesn't, it stretches or it doesn't, right?

[00:38:59]And we set a 30-day moving average, what happens?

[00:39:02]After this correction and from this rise we put the moving average here and in the end the price fails and we, well, we have generated, well, I don't know, 15 or 20%, it's not much, but what do we expect now? It's going back into the pit, giving us another chance to re-enter a stock where we'll buy 1% of our portfolio position, thinking about the fact that not only is 30% of Zoom's market capitalization net cash, but it also has a huge amount of money in Anthropic that we'll only know when it goes public. But if it's a trillion and it represents 1%, well, do the math.

[00:39:40]That was the differentiating factor you mentioned as a tip, and you already gave us a headline because it was featured here on the business TV channel, right?

[00:39:50]That investment option that is not directly in Anthropic, then, can be through Zoom in a somewhat indirect way.

[00:39:57]Indirect and at a good price, because you're really buying at a business angel price, that is, you 're buying at a price of 53 million, because it's not reflected in Zoom's capitalization and you're like, no, but I'm buying a company that has debt and has a problem. No, no, it's just that Zoom makes money, it's a company that is, well, it is what it is, but it generates a lot of money, right? And it has that capitalization.

[00:40:24]So, the market doesn't want those kinds of companies today, because it doesn't want them, and I have a few, uh, we're building them little by little, like little ants.

[00:40:36]You have Lululemon, look, this is Lululemon, oh my god, Lululemon, the one she wears, oh my God.

[00:40:43]The fall is tremendous, isn't it?

[00:40:45]By the way, yes? I was going to tell you that Porsche took it from the DAX.

[00:40:50]Yes, yes, yes.

[00:40:51]More than one person has probably found themselves saying, " What do I do now?" Well, it's not a big deal, I mean, it's still listed, but it's not listed among the top 40 companies included in the German DAX index, but it's still listed, obviously. And it has its liquidity and nothing has happened, eh, it was dethroned by a real estate company.

[00:41:13]Yes, well, these things happen in the end, but honestly, for the profile we're looking for, it doesn't matter to me. Ultimately, what we're trying to do is tighten the screws when you see the logic. Then the market often argues with you, right? And this is where you need to have a strong stomach, because obviously using stops in this operation is absurd, because it will get you out in the short term. But in the long run we're making progress, right? With those increases we 've had in oil in the first quarter, we've gained 8%, which we've redistributed among these companies, and now with artificial intelligence we're gaining 4%. Look, Cisco Systems, we're already there, let's see when it takes us out, you see?

[00:41:52]Flex.

[00:41:53]That's where I'm marking the stop sign, right?

[00:41:55]That will also mark an exit point for us.

[00:41:58]Infineon, which is also climbing like crazy, you know.

[00:42:02]Yes, Infineon isn't going to release you, it's releasing today. It looks like we're going to have more partying, let's see, knock on wood. And also the banks, which I was telling you about the other day, look how they're starting to stretch themselves, aren't they? There you have BNP, which we 've already moved to take profit, and AXA, which looks good, is there.

[00:42:22]Allianz, which also seems to be taking a step forward, it seems that the banks and insurers want to make another move, then Intesa San Paolo, everyone breaking out, you already mentioned it, that it was a bit of everyone for one, it was going to be that poker of aces and they are doing it, mhm.

[00:42:37]Okay, it seems that sometimes you get one, Arcelor has slipped up a bit. And then there's ASML Holding, which I also mentioned is usually the last one in the semiconductor sector, and look again, right? There she is stretching. With all the money I already have protected there with the stops, you see? The stop loss is right there in the moving average zone, we've already won all this, I'm giving this to the market, I'm letting the trend run. This is the money we're earning and that we're already distributing among some of these companies that are very cheap, right? So, the concept of the trader is to risk profits, not capital. You can pyramid always in winning or losing positions, risking capital and using common sense, always waiting for the right moment, which can sometimes be long- term, which I prefer, or sometimes short- term, because if we only go to cheap stocks that have fallen, we can get so bored that we will make mistakes.

[00:43:29]Clear.

[00:43:30]If we only have expensive, trendy stocks, then it can happen that we're very happy with Infineon and suddenly the narrative changes and this is corrected by 40%, right? Then of course.

[00:43:40]Finding balance, balance in everything, and if you want, we can talk about yesterday, what do you think?

[00:43:46]Very good.

[00:43:47]The mambo.

[00:43:49]Hey?

[00:43:49]The mambo.

[00:43:51]What did you think of it? I saw it live, we heard it later, that rise of the dollar, which they had been pushing all the time around the 100 zone and it already surpassed those 100, it surpassed them by a wide margin and it has pushed the euro dollar, we already have it at support, very supportive, euro dollar at 1.14, 1, uh 1.15, 1.14 and a bit, pound dollar also down, gold down.

[00:44:15]And that's kind of a direct reaction, isn't it?

[00:44:18]Look, I'm telling you, a lot of them have been quite deceived because the bags were all over the place and were thrown around, they fell, they were swept away, and as soon as we opened the program, this started to spin in a V shape, breaking at the top, and here's the party again, right?

[00:44:33]This is crazy, because I'm telling you this because sometimes a lot of people come to Blackbird and say, "Let's trade, shall we?" And we like this in the end, we are operators, we have our broker, but no, no, we don't like to encourage people to trade for the sake of trading, what we like is that we all more or less, through technology, go to the same positions and our greatest pride is that people go through crises and move forward, right? And look, yesterday the decision starts, bam, the press conference starts, bam, the press conference continues and there are many people saying, "I need volatility to make intraday profit." Oh really?

[00:45:13]So, let's be consistent, money is in the trend and we know that the enemy is psychology and psychology is generated precisely in the very short term.

[00:45:25]These days are for turning on the TV, watching, and relaxing, because here they can easily wipe out your entire account depending on the type of trading you do, right?

[00:45:38]And it is clear that we are here, then, to make the best possible decisions and to try, of course, to carry out a winning operation. Then the market will need a few days, won't it? In order to consolidate, not consolidate this whole situation, and above all I wanted to highlight the issue of metals, right? Because I am very interested in the behavior of metals. I'm drawn to silver and I'm drawn to gold.

[00:46:10]And what we saw yesterday from Kevin Walsh, I suppose you've already talked about it a lot and all that, right? But I'm left with one thing that for me, what Kevin Walsh said is this: the party's over. That's what Kevin Walsh said. And what Kevin Walsh said is that the party is over, and I think that's day one of the return to the more traditional trading style that has given the best results throughout history until 2008, which is value investing.

[00:46:41]Mhm.

[00:46:44]So, the idea right now is n't that we're all receiving that message, right? Experts say it, I too have taken my profits in technology, semiconductors, I still have some pharma stocks that I'm going to keep, which is Gims, to last a little longer, but I too have been taking profits and reinvesting them.

[00:47:04]Hey, the one who came before, José Javier González, also said exactly the same thing, that he's taking profits, and right now he's going to rotate to other more undervalued companies and look for more value. So we've seen four values: Booking, Uber, and Meta. And well, you're saying the same thing.

[00:47:27]Clear. That 's kind of the point, isn't it? I don't know if we have many minutes, but I'll tell you something that might be very interesting.

[00:47:33]Yes, we have uh 47, 57, we have 8 minutes.

[00:47:39]We have time.

[00:47:40]We have time, yes. Look, this here is the Federal Reserve website, okay?

[00:47:46]And here are the facts, okay? When you look at this graph, you see a... don't you? You see a graph and you say, what happened here, right? This is in 2008, just before, when mortgage companies started to fail, even before this was Bear Stearns.

[00:48:02]Mhm.

[00:48:03]Then, when the crash happened and all that, well, it started to fizzle out, right? This was almost $120 billion of monetary expansion. It seems like a lot, which is what was called support for specific institutions, which was specific support for certain banks in the midst of the crisis. And this, which seems like a lot, becomes just an anecdote when they started doing all equity facilities, you know.

[00:48:28]Notice that what seems like a lot of " Wow," is actually nothing.

[00:48:34]And we later saw this anecdote in regional banks and in COVID. But imagine the enormity of the 2008 round when they invested 1.5 trillion dollars, which is what SpaceX is worth today, by the way, okay? And this here, which makes the previous anecdote, look at what happens when we see unconventional monetary policies called quantitative easing ( QEs).

[00:49:00]Because of this monetary degenerate, Ben Bernanke, who is Helicopter Ben, who did n't see that there was a crisis, and the crisis, oh my God, and the crisis was fixed just when he was in the press conference saying that there was no crisis. That was legendary. Do you realize this? This makes the previous anecdote. We're talking about 8 trillion. Now we're going to understand what's going on, because this isn't magic, [clears throat] okay? These 8 trillion dollars that they have injected, what Bernanke said here, here where I mark, which was the first quantitative easing, what Bernanke said was, uh, we have to stimulate American consumer confidence through the purchase of assets in the market, manipulate American consumer confidence. That means we buy assets on the market to sell to the stock exchange, and that's what they buy, okay?

[00:49:53]American savers spend.

[00:49:55]This manipulation since 2008 has changed the bias. Value investing, the smart investor who throws the trash in the bin, is useless, because the market inflates by buying assets.

[00:50:06]Um, what Kevin Warsh is saying is that the party's over, because what Kevin Warsh said yesterday is that he doesn't want unconventional monetary policies. He's not going to spell out what he's going to do, he's going to create five working groups to raise and lower interest rates and do what the Fed hasn't done, which is target 2%, something the Fed has said for a long time it hasn't done. This is super hawkish, is n't it? That's why gold is falling and that's why silver is falling, because it's giving value back to the bond, to the dollar, and that's very dangerous for commodities and metals. It hasn't fallen much, I tell you, it hasn't fallen much.

[00:50:42]Yes, because as long as the degenerates we have in charge of the world continue spending as if there were no tomorrow, it is a powerful counterweight. But at least there's one who's already entered the path of rationality, which is Kevin Warsh, right? I like it. I'm a masochist and I like it, because if we don't do things right and let the party happen, what we're doing is destroying the market.

[00:51:03]What we do is Claro, well, more than value we create a casino.

[00:51:09]That is, only the assets go up. Then there's the lack of housing, the problem we have that SpaceX is worth I don't know how many trillions, well, that's normal, this is a market. All this money, all this, all this nonsense, where has it gone? It has not focused on the productive economy, it has not focused on building machines or productivity. Human beings have built innovation without this.

[00:51:31]This has gone to the speculative markets and this becomes the Max Seven, or whatever you want to call it, because it's money going to the stock exchanges and that's the speculative market we don't want, because if this disappears they're going to have to smoke eight trillion dollars. We smoked two without any major consequences.

[00:51:52]But that money disappears, which is why so many companies are at rock bottom, right? What do I mean by this? We need to pay close attention because I think, I really think, that Kevin Warsh's first appearance, even though it was very brief, is very revealing of his intentions. And I am convinced that this guy is going to change the bias of the Federal Reserve, which may generate a lot of volatility, but there will be a change. And as gold and silver lose support, that's a sign that the structural change in the economy is total. And you have to understand it in order to recognize it at the right time.

[00:52:32]So we're at a historic moment, huh? I would tell you.

[00:52:35]We are at a historic moment of possible change, and just the next day we are already seeing that the party continues, we do n't have a hangover, but it is true that the sales, or at least that's what I've been able to see in the futures, the sales that silver and gold had yesterday are backed by a lot of trading, very high trading volume.

[00:52:58]Mmm, and that negotiation wasn't happening before. And the rise that the stock market was having today in the United States, well, there's practically no trading.

[00:53:10]The high-level negotiation was generated just yesterday. And right now, in those candles between the ones it bounced off and yesterday's, there's already a range they're going to have to fight for.

[00:53:20]Until they're released, until we see prices up here, nothing. Of course, all this price increase sometimes... It's true that there's an industrial component in silver and copper and such, that's due to electrification and all that stuff, right?

[00:53:38]Yes, well. This needs to be taken into account. And gold is the counterweight to these degenerates of public spending, as Milei says, who govern us, because as long as they keep turning the crank, well, obviously, of course, it's a counterweight, but let's not forget all the previous rise and that it's dangerous now to jump into metals without a filter, without a stop. I'm being cautious; we've tried, we've hit the stop sign at some point, we're still monitoring the situation, but be careful.

[00:54:10]That's right, that little support has already been, well, violated twice.

[00:54:15]And we're going to see what metals do. Gold is an asset that we get asked about a lot, precisely because, well, people want to have gold in their portfolio and do n't know when to buy it, because it's true that they've been scared by the drop it's been experiencing since its peak. It's just that silver is just as volatile, or even more so, I'd say.

[00:54:37]Yes, no, no, it's definitely like a booster, isn't it? The silver above all else. And I think it's interesting. Look at Accenture, which is down 16%.

[00:54:48]Accenture was also hit hard.

[00:54:51]My goodness, she's had some nasty falls today, huh.

[00:54:54]Well, it's a... We'll have to analyze it, you see? When [laughs] When these things happen, you get a little curious, because when you rotate, when you reap those benefits, well, you know which companies to get involved with, right?

[00:55:07]Perhaps we need to wait a little while, don't you think? Stop to let things calm down a bit and really see what happened and if it makes sense. Sometimes you analyze and say, damn, well yes, I mean, there's a problem, right? But sometimes no, sometimes the market generates narratives and that's okay.

[00:55:27]And it punishes far too much. Just a minute and that's it, we'll wrap this up, Marc.

[00:55:34]Yes, well, let's see, we've talked about some positions, we're in banks, we're in artificial intelligence taking profits. And look, since you 've mentioned it, I do see the uranium issue as a bit green again today, but the pattern doesn't inspire confidence yet; it's just a technical bounce.

[00:55:54]But there is one thing we've done today that you're going to like, which is Hims, Hims.

[00:56:00]Shared position. It's rising very well, it's stretching. It's already broken through the zone it was supposed to break through, Marc. I take my first profit at 40, but this could go further, you know.

[00:56:12]Yes, it's a crazy goat and anything can happen. I have the stop at the 30-day moving average. There, we will adjust it from below each day. And we're not going to set any goals above that. In other words, let the trend run its course.

[00:56:25]The Hims issue, I don't know if you can see it on your platform and here we go into more detail, whoever wants to stay here on Market Pulse for a minute longer because the issue with Hims is that he has many short positions doubling down there, and as he starts to polish them, he creates a twin there.

[00:56:43]And that's kind of what the pull I 'm waiting for is, right? I made my first profit in my 40s and from then on it was a run.

[00:56:52]I never set goals, okay? Because to gain 600 percent, you have to go through 100 percent. I mean, sometimes it 's better to let the trend run, even if you give up some of the profit. And I agree with that, not only the Hims shorts, but here it's supported with sense, because it's a company that makes sense, the profits have turned upwards and the short squeeze can come hand in hand with the business results of a company that has spectacular growth potential, they are online pharmacies and the growth that this has in the United States is brutal. Then there's Life Medical, which is even riskier, but interesting. We've moved it to take profit, and now the die is cast. Let's see what we get out of this.

[00:57:39]Very well, Marc, well, that's what we'll leave it at. Hims is one of the companies we brought in from the markets in the first programs. I remember when we launched the program, and precisely because they made peace with Novo Nordisk, they became friends, all the lawsuits were dropped, they launched their first short squeeze, and those levels of very high volume that they generated are what they are breaking now. So, well, they are doing the hardest part now, right? So let's see. Let's see how it goes. Marc, it's a pleasure to have you with us.

[00:58:16]Thanks everyone, bye.

[00:58:17]Hugs, bye, bye.

[00:58:20]Well, Marc has also given us some headlines for today's program. Tomorrow is Friday, the weekly closing day. Remember, it's quadruple witching hour.

[00:58:29]You have to roll over all the contracts; you have to, well, move them to the September expiration. If you don't, when they disappear, well, you know why.

[00:58:37]You have to load the new ones, and we'll see you here. We'll follow the market to see how the weekly candle closes, which is very important. It looks really good, thank you so much for spending this hour with us and we'll see you tomorrow at 5 here on Business Television, be happy.

[00:58:57][music] [music] [laughter] He says that if Iran does not respect that agreement, anything can happen. They may even resume military actions and attacks on Iranian territory. And as Politico has just reported, the White House has submitted a memorandum of understanding to Congress aimed at halting hostile actions in Iran.

[00:59:49]The US president and vice president have also insisted that Iran agreed to destroy its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. We continue to listen for the response.

[01:00:52]What's your name?

[01:00:55]I want Steven Kapusta for the [laughs] Go ahead.

[01:01:02]Forward.

[01:01:04]Forward.

[01:01:20]understanding of how much money is frozen, how much of that is in the US, and a senior administration official briefed some of us reporters earlier this week that there might be small entities, is what he said, like small releases of money to build trust with the Iranians early on. I Can you describe that whole situation?

[01:01:38]So, on the frozen funds, the amount of money, I honestly don't know. I've heard numbers north of a hundred billion dollars. I've actually heard numbers north of two hundred billion dollars.

[01:01:47]Most of it is not in United States accounts. Most of it's either in the Gulf or in Europe or somewhere else, but I don't know the exact amount of money.

[01:01:54]It's a lot. It's one of the reasons why we've had such a successful chokehold on the Iranian economy, though by not even close to the main reason.

[01:02:03]We're not releasing a single dollar of that money until the Iranians perform.

[01:02:07]And there are number ways they could perform. For example, let's say they actually take meaningful steps, and this could happen very quickly, to destroy that stockpile of enriched material, then we're going to have a conversation about it. But they have to perform. I've seen some reports, I don't know where this came from, that the Qataris had released billions of dollars in Iranian assets. That's just not true. It would be impossible for the Qataris to do that without our buy-in and certainly without us seeing it. So, a lot of these this reporting is just fundamentally wrong.

[01:02:35]They don't get a dollar of unfrozen assets. Their money, not our money, but they don't get a dollar of unfrozen assets until they actually perform under the deal. You asked about You asked about Switzerland. Our plan is to go to Switzerland. I don't know exactly when.

[01:02:48]The way that we're setting up this technical negotiation is that obviously you're going to have the political leadership involved.

[01:02:55]Excuse me. [clears throat] We're going to have people on the ground actually conducting the technical talks, the nuclear talks. How do you destroy this highly enriched uranium? All that stuff that you really just have to get into the nitty-gritty on. So, you know, I plan to go to Switzerland. Exactly when, you know, we thought we think these technical negotiations are going to start sometime this weekend. That's still the plan, but that could change because Iran is not an easy country to get out of.

[01:03:33]Regarding the trip to Switzerland, Jay D. Vance just said that for the moment, well, it was scheduled for this weekend, and that's still the agreement, but he says that anything can happen, everything can change depending on Iran's behavior and especially how they continue with that uranium, that enriched uranium, especially because, as Iran has confirmed, it has to destroy all those reserves of highly enriched uranium. And Jay D.

[01:03:57]Vance says anything can happen, they might even postpone that trip to Switzerland.

[01:04:02]Listen.

[01:04:15]Yeah, so I'm certainly planning to lead uh the US negotiating team, but on the first question, you know, you talked about an intelligence report that was anonymously leaked to a reporter that was not with context and that frankly is not accurate.

[01:04:29]What has changed about Iranians about the Iranian ballistic missile program is it matters much less the number of missiles they have, the number of bullets. What matters much more is the number of launchers they have and importantly the teams on the ground that have the capacity to launch those missiles. Their ability to launch missiles has been substantially degraded. Is it zero? No, but it's substantially degraded and in that sense we haven't abandoned the mission, we've accomplished that particular part of the mission. If you look at the Gulf Arab allies and obviously the Israelis who faced a lot, the two of them together faced the brunt of these missile attacks, each of them feels substantially safer today from the Iranian missile threat than they did before. Obviously, that is something that we would like to continue. All right. He gives He says He welcomes the agreement between the US and Iran.

[01:05:19]Says he hopes it will help strengthen mutual trust, security and stability in the Middle East. He also hopes that it's truly a solution to the war and that the war is really over.

[01:05:30]My response to that is Praise Jesus.

[01:05:32]I'm glad that the Pope has positive things to say about our MOU. I think that the Pope is fundamentally accurate and it's going to be good for the entire world. But we got to keep working at it to make sure that the Iranians honor the commitments that they've made.

[01:05:44]And then yes, you in front.

[01:05:45]Go ahead. There 's so many people in here. I could say the red tie and then 90 of you start shouting at us. The burgundy tie? Yeah. There we go.

[01:05:55]That guy. Thank you. The MOU calls for a US troop withdrawal from the Gulf region tied to the final deal. Can you say whether the drawdown will have US forces passing Iraq and Syria where Americans would currently help protect Kurdish held areas from Iranian backed militias.

[01:06:11]Okay, so the drawdown contemplated again, this is the final deal. This is assuming that the Iranians comply, that they give us verification, that they take real substantial conduct towards this peace agreement. What we're saying is that we will withdraw troops to the pre-conflict level. Meaning we're not going to keep a couple of extra aircraft carrier groups over there. The Iranians don't want that. Frankly, we don't want that either.

[01:08:52]Well, we continue to hear that he's acting as Caroline's White House press secretary and paying attention to answering many questions, including the $300 billion question. They already know that this figure represents the reconstruction fund for Iran in this memorandum of understanding. So, how will it be applied? Because you already know what Donald Trump has been saying, and precisely J.D. himself.

[01:09:17]Vance said a few minutes ago that the United States will not pay a single cent to Iran. Again, J.D. Vance insists on the argument that this amount will be paid through the lifting of sanctions directly against Iran. And pay attention because the Vice President of the United States has not only spoken about Iran, not only about a conflict that seems to be coming to an end, but he has also spoken about the next chapter. What will happen to Cuba? J.D.

[01:09:44]Vance is clear about it. Right now, the two governments, the American and the Cuban, are in the midst of talks to prevent a new aggression, a new conflict. Meanwhile, let's get on time, let's go to Washington D.C. to continue listening to J.D. Vance.

[01:10:07]So I guess I would say to anybody have a little idea that he is going to strike a it's preposterous. He is the person who has had the courage with Iran over the last year and a half. He believes in this deal. He is going to see it and if the Iranians don't comply, we still have every single and point of leverage that we have today.

[01:10:37]is have a little faith in the president's ability given that he's got us this far to take us the final step.

[01:10:42]The second thing that I would say is so many of what I've read or heard people believe about this deal is just fundamentally untrue. It is a memorandum of understanding.

[01:10:54]that yes Straight to formula is going to be open immediately, they already are. Yes, they're going to give up their highly enriched material, but they've got to actually do it. It's about conduct. It's about rewarding good behavior and punishing bad behavior, which in some ways is what we've been doing for the last 3 months vis-à-vis that country anyway. So, so many of the criticisms I saw Lindsey Graham came out with a positive statement after expressing some concerns. I think that when people get to understand not just the agreement, but our negotiating posture as a country, they will realize this is an excellent thing for the American people, but that's part of our job. We've got to tell the story about what this means for Americans, how it's going to make all of us safer and more prosperous. That's why I'm here talking to everybody, and we're going to keep on telling that story in the days and weeks to come. Go ahead.

[01:11:41]Thank you, sir. Jordan Conradson with the Gateway Pundit. I want to talk back to the Lebanon story.

[01:11:47]Um there's a report in Axios that Netanyahu's fuming over this. He doesn't Israel doesn't feel bound to that MOU as it relates to Lebanon. If, as you mentioned, your frustration with Israel's strike Israel's striking in Beirut hitting apartment buildings, if that continues, could it torpedo the deal? And what would the US's response be to a broader war in Lebanon on the border as well?

[01:12:11]Yeah, well, I don't want to get into hypotheticals that could torpedo the deal because I think the president's expectation is that all of our friends, the Israelis, the Arabs in the region, we're going to work together and actually see this deal to completion.

[01:12:24]Now, I saw the Axios report, you know, that that Netanyahu is smoking.

[01:12:29]That's not reflective of the conversations that I've had with him, but maybe he's saying something to someone else that he's not saying to me. What I will say, and this does bother me, is that you've seen people within BB's cabinet who have come out and attacked the deal, and in some ways very personally attacked the president of the United States. And I guess my message to them would be twofold. Number one, Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in [clears throat] Well, that concludes J.D.'s appearance. Vance, the Vice President of the United States, has generated quite a few headlines, which we will analyze. The first one has been precisely about the recirculation within the Strait of Hormuz, because it seems that this circulation, at least the barrels of oil, are already leaving directly from this enclave.

[01:15:47]That's what's happening with respect to the Strait of Hormuz, but right now there's a big question regarding this memorandum of understanding. The $300 billion question. We know for a fact that this is the amount earmarked for Iran to be rebuilt after the war. But now, how will this amount be contributed? The Vice President of the United States is clear on this. Without a single penny from the United States.

[01:16:33]All this just hours after the President of the United States, well, drew attention by saying that he had no intention of withdrawing the missiles from Iran, which were not the big problem at all in this conflict or in the tension between the two countries. Jay D. Vance wanted to talk about this very issue and did so in this way.

[01:17:22]Again, for Donald Trump, missiles are not the problem. What is it?

[01:17:26]Nuclear weapons. The fact that Iran may be seeking to develop a nuclear bomb.

[01:17:32]Jay D. Vance has sought to calm the waters somewhat in this regard by stating that, within this framework of understanding, there is a nuclear commitment between the two powers.

[01:18:36]And one last question remains: will this framework of understanding lead to the United States and Iran finally reaching a complete understanding? Will this agreement lead to a better relationship between the United States and Iran? J.D. Vance is clear on this, it's possible. However, if Iran respects its behavior.

[01:19:29]Well, those were the words of the Vice President of the United States at a time when we continue to learn specific points about that memorandum of understanding, because apparently, under that provisional agreement between Tehran and Washington, the Trump administration will allow Iran to access $6 billion from its oil revenues that are deposited in Qatar to buy humanitarian and non-sanctioned goods from the United States. The funds would be released in phases, beginning within the extended 60-day ceasefire period stipulated in the agreement, depending on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of talks towards a final agreement. This measure is part of the billions of dollars in financial incentives the administration is offering to ensure the Islamic Republic commits to the memorandum of understanding it signed with the United States on Wednesday and follows through on nuclear talks. According to a diplomat briefed on the agreement, they would only be used to purchase American products.

[01:20:41]Well, let's analyze precisely what this appearance by the Vice President of the United States has yielded, as well as the reactions to the memorandum and, pay attention, the mess that's brewing in Moscow. All this on the news after a short commercial break, here on Business Television.

[01:21:08][music] Hey, Europe is doing well.

[01:21:19]Some people say so, don't they? But the reality is quite different.

[01:21:23]The reality is quite different, and defaults are on the rise, huh?

[01:21:28]Be careful, take a look at the PIMCO cover, see if we can see it, because the alarms keep coming out. MarketWatch PIMCO warns that defaults in debt markets are reappearing. This is the bond giant's action plan, given the mess being created around the debt and especially the Anthropic photo we saw, the need for Anthropic and OpenAI to go out into a market where they depend on the government, that they depend on the Trump administration. It doesn't matter what they tell us.

[01:21:58]And in Spain, in Spain, Zapatero's jewels. Everyone's talking about the 1.3 million jewels, right?

[01:22:12][music] And while along the way