It's Getting Steeper!

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-23

[00:00:00]Yeah.

[00:00:28]Heat.

[00:00:42]warning. This video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal trading investment or financial advice of any kind.

[00:00:49]Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risks and you are prepared to lose it all. All right.

[00:00:54]Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and this is the weekend's deep dive where we come back and reexamine the base case hypothesis and check to see if things are still going roughly speaking according to plan and then I use that as a framework within which I can justify my positioning and posturing on the market which of course when we get to the charts and the TA at the end I will show you. So kicking things off with the stocks at the bottom we were saying everyone was too bearish and we're going to have this blowoff top to alltime highs come tumbling down in a global bare market and recession and that we expected to see a short period of asset price deflation into those lows. Fast forward to today and it seems like we are well and truly in a blowoff top and a huge parabolic upside move.

[00:01:31]There's been a number of shakeouts upon the way, but they have been resolving to new highs and they continue to do so.

[00:01:36]So, we are going to continue to be long and strong until this thing finally breaks down. So far though, I could say for certain we are well and truly in a parabolic blowoff top, which I expect to persist for a little while longer. And then of course when this thing tops I expect us to crash violently down into that four-ear cycle low for the S&P 500 due around the end of this year where I of course expect the NBER to come back and date the recession in the past as they always do. Right? So if we get something like this down into a four-year cycle low big crash they'll come back in hindsight and say I think we're in a recession somewhere in this neighborhood. Bitcoin we've been observing these weekly cycles that make up the four-year cycle and that continues to be the case. And so far, since we have clearly broken down, we've clearly entered the declining phase of the 4year cycle, it seems like we're well and truly on our way to that 4-ear cycle low. The question at the moment is how far is this counter trend bounce going to go before it ultimately turns down and starts to head for the next weekly cycle low and then the four-year cycle low after that. So far though, it looks like we're just about pressing up against the window in which we would expect to see the next declining portion of this bare market take place. And then of course we'll be looking to reallocate to a whole heap of higher beta assets and crypto stocks as we approach that four-year cycle low window. As I said at the start, we are expecting a short period of asset price deflation. This remains one of the most heavily contested parts of this entire hypothesis. I've been making the case that anything you do to the M2 rate of change shows up in the CPI with a lag and that we have yet to see this part of the M2 rate of change present itself in a short period of asset price deflation in the US CPI. The internet has continued to latch on to this fractal idea and say that the parallels are very similar back to the 70s and therefore we expect or the market in aggregate I should say expects a continued push of inflation. But on this channel we still stand by the base case and that is that because we got this pop in oil it is in the short term going to drag the CPI basket up for a couple of months before ultimately oil continues to move to the downside. The whole Iran situation passes and everyone forgets about it and therefore the CPI should continue to trend down. And whilst yes, we have had quite a violent snapback rally here in the CPI basket. You can see that we are still significantly disinflationary relative to the top, we have been trending down ever since we saw the top in inflation. And in every single one of these counter trend rallies, a lot of people came alive and became very loud and started to say that that was it. The bottom was in and inflation was going to move up. And even calls for hyperinflation persist on every single one of these pops. But if we actually look at this as it stands, okay, this is still lower lows and lower highs. This is a disinflationary trend by definition. And unless we start to get new higher highs printed here, I stand with the base case which is that we are continuing to be disinflationary before ultimately slipping into a short period of asset price deflation. I maintain that people make the same mistake when it comes to the PCE. Okay, they look at this and they say here we go hyperinflation's coming and you know you're wrong camel on this call, but this is still a disinflationary trend and I believe this is soon going to roll over because we are seeing the top come in for oil. So I'm going to take that one off too and say so far so good.

[00:04:27]Unless of course we start to print higher highs and higher lows on the inflation, then we can invalidate this portion of the hypothesis. But so far it's still disinflationary. And I do understand that a lot of people get confused by this because we're using a flawed metric, right? We're using in the basket for CPI shelter which makes it look stickier than it is. But if we actually substitute the shelter with a real-time metric like ALRI, you can see that inflation's been well below 2% for a very long time. Here's another look at this. By the way, you can see just how sticky shelter inflation looks.

[00:04:55]Meanwhile, using a real-time metric, okay, inflation has not been a problem.

[00:04:58]And so, moving on to the next portion of this hypothesis is that we are of course expecting to see labor market deterioration as we move towards that recession. And this is very much been the case. We have seen, although we've had short-term wobbles, a primary trend of labor market deterioration. And on top of that, the government has continued to quietly revise the data down shortly thereafter. We saw a whopping 911,000 jobs cut out of the payrolls last year. And then only back in February, we saw them revise over a million jobs out of the 2025 reports. So I continue to make the case that we are seeing labor market deterioration and that it is persistent. And until such time as that changes, then I can only draw the conclusion that we are indeed slowly but surely heading towards that recession. If I go to the Camel Finance website and pull up the macro data dashboard here, you can see that the unemployment rate continues to show persistent deterioration. Okay, it looks a lot like the leadin phase before we have the pops as the recession takes hold. So, I think either this is going to resolve higher and then we'll be able to say, "Yep, that makes a lot of sense heading into a recession as expected."

[00:05:56]Or somehow this is going to roll over and we're going to be able to avoid a recession. But at the moment, I don't think the latter is the smart bet. I think this looks a lot like we are grinding towards higher and higher unemployment and that we will eventually continue to see this spike as we enter a recession, which is very, very typical behavior. We can see similar trends in the unemployment rate for 16 to 24 year olds. We can see a very similar trend in U6. Again, consistent and persistent.

[00:06:18]Nothing alarming yet, but still persistent labor market deterioration.

[00:06:22]And we can even see the same sort of thing in the SAM recession rule. There's a lot of concern out there at the moment that we're going to see rate hikes, but I don't think that's the case. I think what's happening is the bond market in aggregate, which sets rates, is simply moving higher at the moment in terms of the yields just because we've had this short-term wobble in inflation. But I believe what's going to happen soon, very soon in fact, is that once oil continues to move down and starts to really accelerate to the downside, we'll see the yields reverse. And then of course we can go back to slashing rates which I believe is what the new Fed chair's job is primarily going to be.

[00:06:50]And we can also take a look at the GDP data which shows a similar trend. First of all they released the data and it doesn't seem quite so bad 1.4. Then they quietly revise it down to 0.7. And most recently just in early April we saw them revise it downwards again to just 0.5%.

[00:07:06]So again I think that's another point in our favor that we are gradually heading towards a recession. And I think it's another suspicious data point in terms of the government, I do not believe, would be quietly revising the data down after the headline prints if everything was aokay. With that said, we often like to check in on the high yield credit spreads and the yield curve, which we use on this channel as an alarm signal.

[00:07:26]When these things break out to the upside, it's synonymous with financially stressed conditions. But at the moment, we don't have that. Right? At the moment, these are subdued. They are absolutely not breaking out like they did in prior times of market corrections. And of course, the bare market at 22 back here. Whilst I am saying the economy seems to be well and truly heading slowly but surely for a recession, the market is not the economy and so far there doesn't seem to be any run for the hills exit signals or alarm signals firing off in the form of high yield credit blowing out. The same is true of the yield curves, right? When these things break out and sweep to the upside, it typically tells you you've got a run for the exit and get defensive pretty quickly. And you can see that here in the com bubble burst. You can see it in the GFC in the C19 era. And what have we got right here? Okay, nothing much going on. Okay, so again, no alarm signals just yet. We had this initial spike following the tariff tantrum and of course we got quite a significant correction in the markets back then. But since then we've just been rangebound. So as bearish as some people might be and as tempting as it is for some people to try to jump in front of a freight train and stop it with their bare hands, aka short the market which is in a very strong uptrend, none of my alarm signals are firing yet to tell me that we need to be defensive.

[00:08:29]And as such we continue to be long and strong across the board, expecting new highs at least for the foreseeable future. Which of course brings me in to the TA and live trades section of this deep dive. The stock market, the S&P 500, this is is very very close to new highs. There's a little bit of divergence here between the Dow Jones for example, which has clearly confirmed a new daily cycle down here as denoted by the indicator and also the price action is very obvious because we've got a new move to fresh price extremes.

[00:08:56]Confirming a daily cycle here, no problem with that. And because we're at new highs, we can of course move the trend line to encompass the lowest low wick. on the S&P and the NASDAQ. They're both showing a little bit of divergence, though. As I said, you can see they didn't quite make it up high enough to say for sure that that is a new daily cycle low yet. And I also cannot readjust the trend line to here until we get new price extremes. But I would say on a balance of probabilities, this has gone too far towards the highs now to come back down in an ABC. It doesn't mean it couldn't, okay? But typically two drives don't really look like that with a double top. They typically tend to look more like this with a counter trend bounce to a lower high and then down into the daily cycle low. So I should think this will probably follow through this week. I suppose worst case scenario we do come down and make one final lower low or even a double bottom and then we just trade that setup same as any other daily cycle low. But I mean when you zoom out this thing is well and truly in a blowoff top. I would say I'm almost sure. Okay, I'm never sure about anything in markets but I'm almost sure this is a new daily cycle. It certainly is for the Dow Jones. As I said, the Russell again, I would argue it's probably already done its two drives here. Okay. And is now pushing off, confirming a new daily cycle. Similar shape from the semis here as well. So, I would say happy days for the stocks and continuing to be long and strong and wrong on my expectation that we would top earlier than we have. However, I'm not going to be dogmatic about it. If it's going to keep going up, I'm going to keep longing it. So, simple as that.

[00:10:14]As for the precious metals, I think we're about halfway through a failed daily cycle here. I've been saying what I want to see is one of two scenarios out of this. I think we'll either get a significant lower low into the upcoming daily cycle, something like this. Okay, in which case it's well and truly a failed daily cycle or if somehow the second scenario plays out, which is that we just kind of grind and don't make a significant lower low here. I would think this is all probably just some horrible stop run before it all moves higher. And my original expectation of this would actually probably be correct just from here. But we do need to see not really significant lower lows for that to happen. I think if we get new significant lows into the cycle low, then we can say that we're well and truly targeting the end of the year, which is fine because we nailed down a bunch of gains. But then I look at silver. Silver's still got this divergence, doesn't it? Okay, it's still making higher highs and it still hasn't failed its daily cycle either. So, this kind of makes me think there's some sort of chicainery going on in these markets.

[00:11:05]And the same is true of the higher beers as well. So, just kind of holding on to that failed daily cycle level. I'm not ready to just fully cut and run yet. I did take a lot of the long-term exposure off of things like these from the allocation down here in this neighborhood. So, I would say sat in a position of power here, heavy in the cash, waiting for a better opportunity to come along. Speaking of a better opportunity, I actually posted a video yesterday to the channel and said something along the lines of we crashed this weekend or I'm wrong and it is now this weekend. Okay, now I don't think this is a crash 1% by any means, but what I was trying to point out is that if this is going to play out and we are going to head down towards 60k, we've pretty much used up all the time to do it. we really need to start declining rapidly now if this yellow squiggle is still in play. I mean, it kind of looks like it could be from here, but the other thing I said was probably about 30% probability is that we get a higher low come here. And if we do, then that will force us to aim for much higher numbers in the coming daily cycle, which is 60 days. So, probably 100, maybe even 110, dare I say it. If we get a significant higher low come in here, I suspect Twitter is going to be an insufferable place to be. It's going to be insufferable anyway, isn't it?

[00:12:08]Because if we get the higher low and start to push off, every man on his dog's going to scream that was the low and everyone missed it and it's time for a new bull market. And if we get this, all of the four-year cycle guys or all the bearish people that are calling for new lows down here somewhere, they're all going to be losing their minds going, "Ah, I told you so." So, I think either way, we're in for a bit of toxicity in the space for a little while, but I'm going to do my best to avoid it as I normally do and just focus on this. Okay. So, like I said, 30% probability in my humble estimation that we get a higher low and have to target higher numbers. And I think I got about 70% probability that we're going to do something like this back down towards 60k which represents somewhere in the neighborhood of 20%. Which we are rapidly running out of time to do. But I mean we can do it. We did it here. Okay, we did it here. And if I turn everything off and draw some scribbles here. Okay, once we get the breakdowns typically, okay, assuming we do this time, which we don't know we will yet, but you can see by my crude drawings, right? Once we actually break down, you don't really have much time to react. It does tend to happen very fast. Okay, just like we got here as well when this breakdown occurred. This was very quick. Then we chopped around and then this was very quick. So I think it's only reasonable to expect if we actually do continue to push lower. You know, you're not going to have much time to react here. So I do think it's going to be an interesting couple of weeks certainly for Bitcoin. I think the metal is probably not going to do anything for another two weeks or so into their upcoming daily cycle. And as for the stocks, you know, I think the new daily cycle is in and we started to position for that in the level three members section. That's either correct in which case fine. Okay, winning trades happy days. or perhaps there's one final lower low to complete that classic two drives pattern for the S&P and the NASDAQ in which case we'll just go long out of that. But all paths essentially lead to higher prices for now at least for stocks and gold I think is tentative and Bitcoin I think is still in the process of doing something like this. So that concludes the weekend's deep dive.

[00:13:50]If you're a level three member, look out for the members only video I'm going to post for you guys. If you want to get started with the indicator, try it out, see how it handles all these cycle loads over the coming weeks for free, now would be the time to do it. Okay, you can go back and hit the replay tool and see how you could structure trades around it and all that kind of thing.

[00:14:04]And you can get that by clicking here in 10 seconds. Lots of very big and exciting stuff coming from the website soon as well, including all the back tested data. I've seen it. The team presented all the back tested data to me. They've showed me all the strategies that we're building for the people that are into that stuff. Although I think some of that's going to be a institutional product, not available to retail, but the indicator and everything that's there now certainly will be. And we're making some slight tweaks to the indicator to make it even better with a higher hit rate. So do come and join the thousands of traders improving their edge by clicking here in about 10 seconds. And other than that, have a fantastic weekend. All the best from me.

[00:14:36]Cheers. Bye.

[00:14:38]Finance.

[00:14:41]Rocking the market with his contrarian scream. Trades like a pro. No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed.

[00:14:55]Camel finance got the markets key taking us stories on a bumpy ride.